Blog

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how Kamari, Katie, Emma, Romeo, and Pioneer will fare at NXN. That’s not even to mention Brooks! A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026. The foundation of the following fall will be built now, the winter miles key toward a strong track season that could lead to a stronger cross season.

So what better than some early, way too early rankings? These are formed from the same rankings that were fairly predictive at the Regional and State levels (or led to mid-pack finishes at MITCA *shrug*), filtering out seniors, adding in projected improvements, then scoring it as a whole division XC meet. The projected improvements are based on the past five years of data, the formulas attempting to portray how much a runner at a certain grade and speed progresses in the next season. I do realize that there will be division changes, typically released in March. By then, I should have incoming freshmen added into the equation, and will edit the divisions as needed.

For now, a simple show of the returners. Use it as motivation.

DIVISION FOUR

What a run for the Whitmore Lake seniors. The Trojan class of ’26 (Elodie Weaver, Carina Burchi, Sofia Robertson) presided over four regional titles and three D4 titles in their four year reign. Two-time D4 champ Kaylie Livingston and her All-State counterpart Malynda Lambros will hope to lead the Trojans back to the stage.

Early on, three teams appear to stand in their path – Hillsdale Academy, Grand Traverse Academy, and Maple City Glen Lake. Filtering for outgoing seniors, the three squads had the lowest returning scores of the D4 girls. The Lakers may move up to D3 (we’ll find out in the spring), but if in D4, their youthful combination of six girls that’ve run 22-flat or faster offers intrigue. For the Colts, no thought is needed, their returning depth is immediately apparent. Their runner-up squad had the best 5^th, 6^th, or 7^th athlete in the field. Their “slowest” returner was Allie Miller at 21:24 (the 6^th HA girl to come in), fast enough to be a scorer on every other D4 team. The Mustangs placed 5^th here a few weeks back, 35 points out of second in this year’s tightly wound competition. Their top-five return, led by Amelia McKinney and offering some of the better depth outside of HA.

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Hillsdale Academy	142	96.1
2	Grand Traverse Academy	185	91.3
3	Maple City Glen Lake	186	92.6
4	Buckley	265	81.7
5	Concord	266	80.9
6	Gobles	276	89.8
7	Martin	286	84.4
8	Onekama	318	82.2
9	Bellaire	330	73.9
10	Lansing Christian	333	73.5
11	Kalamazoo Hackett	337	74.2
12	Royal Oak Shrine	382	69.4
13	Harbor Beach	392	66.5
14	Whitmore Lake	410	71.6
15	Ubly	419	61.9
16	East Jordan	449	56.8
17	Bear Lake	451	59.1
18	Rogers City	457	51.1
19	Petoskey St. Michael	502	46.8
20	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	538	48.9
21	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	554	46.1
22	Ellsworth	569	39.4
23	Indian River Inland Lakes	581	34.3
24	Novi Christian Academy	601	39.7
25	Kinde North Huron	688	23.6
26	Lutheran Westland	703	16.6
27	Austin Catholic	719	-34.6

DIVISION THREE

November 1^st was a dominating day, the Lansing Catholic girls victorious by the largest margin ever in D3. The presence of Frances Melinn will surely be missed, though the Cougars have the quickness necessary to make it three in a row. Depth is the major reason why, as even their seventh girl (Lindsey Ludwig) would’ve been a scorer for every other D3 team and as high as the 3^rd girl for many top-10 teams.

In this way too early writing, it seems as if the podium has a high chance of remaining the same, Pewamo-Westphalia holding the second spot amongst the returning girls. The Pirates return their entire MIS varsity squad, all of those girls showing they’re capable of racing into the 20’s.

Given the strength of these two outfits, it’ll be a tough task getting onto the podium. However, relative to other divisions, the impact of a freshman in the D3/D4 range can be great. In other words, I wouldn’t be shocked (seriously, I haven’t even peered at middle school meets) if one of those teams in the 3^rd-10^th area vaults into podium consideration.

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Lansing Catholic	65	129.8
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	205	115.6
3	Hart	312	103.6
4	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	346	100.3
5	McBain	352	102.5
6	Jackson Lumen Christi	355	104.6
7	Traverse City St. Francis	368	99.4
8	Benzie Central	405	98.0
9	Kent City	432	100.2
10	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	437	95.3
11	Grandville Calvin Christian	588	86.2
12	Olivet	594	95.3
13	Ithaca	609	88.3
14	Saugatuck	644	87.7
15	Remus Chippewa Hills	668	85.3
16	Harbor Springs	695	81.0
17	Sanford-Meridian	697	81.4
18	Blissfield	718	82.0
19	Bronson	742	79.0
20	Caro	786	81.5
21	Midland Bullock Creek	822	74.9
22	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	832	75.3
23	Grass Lake	852	73.1
24	Pigeon-Laker	886	71.3
25	Jonesville	929	69.3
26	Plymouth Christian Academy	968	69.0
27	Roscommon	973	69.4

DIVISION TWO

The battle between Holland Christian and Otsego will seemingly extend into 2026. Between the Maroons and Bulldogs are eleven girls that raced at the D2 Finals faster than the 20-min. mark. Holland Christian is a bit more experienced, but that typically means an Otsego has more room to grow.

Can anyone else contend? Both Grand Rapids South Christian and Goodrich have a chance, the former similarly youthful to Otsego and the latter a year removed from a state title of their own. Grand Rapids Christian is also a thought, though the Eagles have much experience to replace (a transition they’ve traditionally handled well).

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Holland Christian	139	135.2
2	Otsego	141	134.6
3	Grand Rapids South Christian	269	124.4
4	Grand Rapids Christian	273	123.1
5	Goodrich	319	124.0
6	Coopersville	320	122.6
7	East Grand Rapids	391	119.5
8	Linden	397	117.5
9	Holland	437	118.9
10	DeWitt	445	113.3
11	Cadillac	513	112.5
12	St. Joseph	575	108.5
13	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	587	108.7
14	Spring Lake	600	105.4
15	Freeland	622	108.1
16	Cedar Springs	635	104.6
17	Forest Hills Eastern	637	104.3
18	Clare	650	103.4
19	Bloomfield Hills Marian	706	100.8
20	Macomb Lutheran North	711	101.4
21	Pinckney	774	105.7
22	Richland Gull Lake	793	101.4
23	New Boston Huron	826	95.4
24	Allendale	834	95.5
25	Shepherd	849	96.4
26	Williamston	892	93.8
27	Adrian	900	100.4

DIVISION ONE

The revelation of this early season that led to a state title, Ann Arbor Pioneer appears to be in prime position to repeat. The purple-clad ladies lose a valuable senior in Hana Boggess (and without her late-race surge, that title may not have occurred). However, they return everyone else, including two All-Staters in Keira Von Blon and Siena Klemmer and the venerable, record-setter, Natasza Dudek.

Here in 2025, AAP’s main competition was Romeo and the Bulldogs will surely miss their seniors – Natalia Guaresimo, Ella Goodsell, and Emmie Clor. Reese Rosbolt and Annie Hrabovsky will be among the better top-two’s in the state.

Four teams look to be in immediate contention for a podium spot – Hudsonville, Holland West Ottawa, Northville, and Ann Arbor Skyline. The four squads share some commonality, each team placing within the top-8 of this month’s State Finals and each consisting of six or more underclasswomen. Each team has their strength, Northville with the fastest returner, Skyline with perhaps the best top-two, Hudsonville strong through three, and West Ottawa develops girls into a top team year after year.

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	130	154.1
2	Northville	239	139.1
3	Hudsonville	275	138.7
4	Holland West Ottawa	281	135.1
5	Ann Arbor Skyline	286	135.0
6	Rockford	369	132.3
7	Portage Central	442	127.4
8	Traverse City Central	485	124.8
9	Brownstown Woodhaven	489	125.7
10	Saline	522	125.3
11	Novi	528	124.4
12	Midland Dow	535	126.5
13	Hartland	536	122.3
14	White Lake Lakeland	555	121.4
15	Rochester Adams	590	127.0
16	Traverse City West	614	122.2
17	Clarkston	723	115.9
18	Rochester	742	115.7
19	Romeo	796	119.4
20	Howell	826	113.4
21	Macomb Dakota	841	112.6
22	Brighton	873	113.2
23	Zeeland West	885	110.2
24	Mason	902	110.2
25	Walled Lake Northern	957	107.6
26	Grand Blanc	960	108.3
27	Utica	966	107.9

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how teams and individuals could fare at NXN or Brooks. A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026. The foundation of the following fall will be built now, the winter miles key toward a strong track season that could lead to a stronger cross season.

So what better than some early, way too early rankings? These are formed from the same rankings that were fairly predictive at the Regional and State levels (or led to mid-pack finishes at MITCA *shrug*), filtering out seniors, adding in projected improvements, then scoring it as a whole division XC meet. The projected improvements are based on the past five years of data, the formulas attempting to portray how much a runner at a certain grade and speed progresses in the next season. I do realize that there will be division changes, typically released in March. By then, I should have incoming freshmen added into the equation, and will edit the divisions as needed.

For now, a simple show of the returners. Use it as motivation.

DIVISION FOUR

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Holland Calvary Christian	73	183.6
2	Maple City Glen Lake	124	180.5
3	Hillsdale Academy	208	168.3
4	Breckenridge	210	170.0
5	Leland	225	166.5
6	Whitmore Lake	260	164.3
7	Mesick	322	169.4
8	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	335	163.6
9	Petoskey St. Michael	362	159.1
10	Mason County Eastern	461	154.2
11	Grand Traverse Academy	487	152.4
12	Buckley	512	151.0
13	Gobles	519	149.4
14	Kalamazoo Hackett	539	148.5
15	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	545	148.9
16	Royal Oak Shrine	610	145.9
17	Fowler	631	144.2
18	East Jordan	689	140.2
19	Genesee Christian Academy	692	137.1
20	Novi Christian Academy	732	138.5
21	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	745	133.0
22	Unionville-Sebewaing	751	137.5
23	Martin	754	137.3
24	Central Michigan Homeschool Athletics	778	135.0
25	Hudson	824	132.5
26	Three Oaks River Valley	861	134.7
27	Tri-Unity Christian	866	131.6

Holland Calvary Christian returns everyone from their state title squad. Evidenced by their MIS performance, this is an experienced outfit that’s shown it has the tools to race well when necessary.

Maple City Glen Lake maybe didn’t have the day at MIS that they wanted, but that doesn’t undo the years of progress before. The Lakers only lose one from their MIS lineup, but return three freshmen.

Hillsdale Academy will have to replace the highly accomplished Grayson Rorick along with a few of his senior classmates. But the Colts are deep beneath, with 8 underclassmen getting under 19:00.

I’d watch for Breckenridge to move up once I add incoming freshmen.

But to make a short story long, the battle at the top looks to be between the two that vied for the trophy a few weeks back. The Crusaders with their long road on the podium and the Lakers who’ve quickly ascended to get there.

DIVISION THREE

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Saugatuck	169	186.9
2	Charlevoix	236	188.2
3	Lansing Catholic	250	182.1
4	Hanover-Horton	335	180.1
5	Hart	392	176.1
6	Jackson Lumen Christi	424	177.3
7	Jonesville	466	176.5
8	Holland Black River	470	176.0
9	Caro	541	174.7
10	Traverse City St. Francis	561	171.1
11	The Potter’s House	601	169.7
12	Pewamo-Westphalia	613	170.0
13	Erie Mason	627	168.6
14	Pigeon-Laker	650	169.4
15	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	688	166.5
16	Blissfield	718	167.0
17	Buchanan	721	167.3
18	Midland Bullock Creek	743	166.3
19	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	753	165.6
20	Montague	775	164.4
21	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	794	167.0
22	Reed City	884	160.9
23	Plymouth Christian Academy	884	162.4
24	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	898	160.9
25	Ann Arbor Greenhills	937	159.6
26	Leslie	951	159.2
27	Grayling	996	157.0

Many of the teams from November 1^st’s top ten have five, if not more returning from their varsity lineup.

A few teams listed above have seven coming back from their state lineup, including Caro, Hart, and Traverse City St. Francis. The latter two had surprises at season’s end – Hart earning an upset win in Region 20 and St. Francis defying the percentages enroute to a 15^th place finish here.

2025’s contenders for a state title likely will be present once again. Charlevoix had four underclassmen accrue points, including their state champ, Hunter Eaton. Lansing Catholic pulled off the immaculate feat of hoisting a trophy but having zero boys grab All-State. That’s quality depth, which will return. Saugatuck didn’t have their best day, but will have a chance at redemption, same too with Hanover-Horton.

DIVISION TWO

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Holland Christian	241	189.0
2	Parma Western	296	188.2
3	Pinckney	322	188.5
4	Alma	333	189.1
5	East Grand Rapids	372	188.3
6	Grand Rapids Christian	373	185.9
7	Shepherd	391	185.7
8	Flint Powers Catholic	395	188.2
9	Fenton	424	186.9
10	Otsego	492	182.2
11	Cedar Springs	513	181.1
12	Detroit Country Day	581	181.1
13	Owosso	640	178.0
14	Forest Hills Eastern	644	179.6
15	Chelsea	646	178.9
16	Spring Lake	654	179.0
17	Grand Rapids South Christian	687	177.2
18	Adrian	697	177.3
19	St. Joseph	712	178.1
20	DeWitt	718	176.7
21	Tecumseh	747	175.8
22	Haslett	790	174.9
23	Williamston	802	176.5
24	Petoskey	838	174.1
25	Freeland	840	173.7
26	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	860	173.6
27	Vicksburg	911	175.2

2025’s Final contenders were senior dominant, with half of the Flint Powers Catholic and East Grand Rapids boys being 12^th graders. The Chargers and Pioneers both have enough depth that they could find their way back to the podium. It’s from the youth-heavy teams that we find what may be 2026’s contenders. Holland Christian contained seven underclassmen under 17:00 and ran five of those at MIS in their 6^th place finish. Parma Western loses Edison Lopeman from their 4^th place finish, though the Panthers bring home three sub-17 freshmen and an All-State Ryan Good.

DIVISION ONE

Rank	Team	Score	Top-5 Avg.
1	Northville	252	198.6
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	283	194.1
3	Brighton	294	194.0
4	Lowell	301	197.1
5	Jenison	370	191.8
6	Midland	381	192.3
7	Saline	470	191.8
8	Salem	473	191.3
9	Ann Arbor Pioneer	492	193.5
10	Traverse City West	505	189.8
11	Caledonia	521	189.7
12	Kalamazoo Central	529	190.7
13	Grand Blanc	541	189.5
14	Highland-Milford	555	189.6
15	Grand Ledge	572	189.1
16	Saginaw Heritage	732	184.7
17	Portage Central	739	185.7
18	Romeo	786	184.3
19	Howell	809	187.1
20	Rockford	812	184.1
21	Holland West Ottawa	820	183.8
22	Brownstown Woodhaven	848	183.3
23	Holly	848	184.5
24	Traverse City Central	853	183.2
25	Detroit Catholic Central	864	183.4
26	Dexter	876	184.7
27	Novi	951	182.0

We’ll have to wait until summer (after track and incoming freshmen are added), however it appears that Northville will again be the #1 team entering the season. The Mustangs Ben Hartigan, Ethan Hertza, Colton Blackburn, and Ryan Stojov, much loss. On the other hand, they return frontrunner Brandon Cloud and kids with much potential such as Lucas Mullan and Ashton Kashat.

The gap is much smaller than in previous years, with three teams standing out as early contenders – Ann Arbor Skyline, Brighton, and Lowell. The Red Arrows produced one of the better freshman combos in Tyler Bromley and Avi Elabed, the latter hitting All-State along with upcoming senior Marshall Huhn. Skyline showed its potential early in the year, winning at Holly against many state-qualifying teams. The Bulldogs had numbers this past year, over 50 boys donning the black n’ orange. From that half a hundred, five underclassmen were able to slip under 16:30 on the Brighton squad that was able to nab a regional crown.

There’s so much to report on – STATE RECORDS, unexpected winners, unexpected All-Staters, clutch performers in the final mile. But an easy one to start things off – PROJECTIONS vs. the cold-hearted truth of REALITY.

I didn’t have time (frankly, no clue how I managed time the past two weeks) to write up an expected outcomes post as I did last year. But if you add up the percentages of the 1^st place teams, you get an expectation of 5.3 correct. The podium teams, 11.8 correct. The top-10 teams, 67.3 correct. In reality, 5 1^st place teams were right (good), 15 podium teams were right (too high), and 68 top-10 teams were right (can’t get much better than that).

The projected range brings in anything but the outliers, the middle 95% of the places a team could get. The expectation is then that those would be correct on 95% of the teams. They were correct on 94.9% of the teams.

Another metric I track is the overall place difference between the projections and reality. 2024’s was the lowest ever at 2.06 places, these were sadly slightly higher at a 2.09 place difference.

The regional ones were pretty equal to last year, the state projections much improved. The main difference in the projections from 2024 to 2025 were the meets I used to generate the simulations. 2024’s version used the upper 2/3 of a runner’s resume with zero regard for which race those came from. 2025’s version used the entire resume, but filtered out for meets of significance (conference finals, weekend invites, regionals). Each version weighed for recency, meet size, and competitiveness. There will always be tweaks, but going forward, the methodology will likely be more similar to this year’s process.

Once again, horrible news for you folk. These are getting even more predictive, so I’ll be around in 2026.

There will be more to come after MITCA. Gotta hold off on those ratings, I want that competitive edge!

Division 4 Girls

Division 4 Boys

Division 3 Girls

Division 3 Boys

Division 2 Girls

Division 2 Boys

Division 1 Girls

Division 1 Boys