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As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. Once again, I’ll leave you with a bit of advice from someone much smarter than I:

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Hart	108	94	95+	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	151	6	95+	95+
3	Saranac	217			95+
4	Hanover-Horton	242			95+
5	Reed City	243			95+
6	St. Louis	251			95+
7	Pewamo-Westphalia	280			95+
8	Benzie Central	302			80
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306			65
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	308			66
11	Ithaca	309			70
12	Clare	335			17
13	Elk Rapids	391
14	Erie Mason	398
15	Caro	411
16	Leslie	424
17	Dansville	426
18	Saugatuck	428
19	Manchester	439
20	Jonesville	445
21	Bath	472
22	Buchanan	480
23	Sanford-Meridian	499
24	Kalamazoo Christian	540
25	Clinton	544
26	Stockbridge	548
27	Charyl Stockwell Academy	629
28	Algonac	662

All year, it’s been the Hart boys at the front. The Pirates’ reign began at Pete Moss, handily defeating a number of teams that are competing here and it has continued throughout the season, where they’ve dispatched any D3 team they’ve faced. Perhaps the closest comparison to the field here would be the D3 race at Portage. There, they were able to bring five runners to the finish faster than most could place their 3^rd or 4^th guys. Long story short, through five runners, there isn’t much weakness with this squad.

Traverse City St. Francis is likely the main competition or main chance at an upset. The Gladiators were 3^rd to Hart at Portage. They’ve been aided by the return of Josh Slocum and (I know it’s a fast course) just had their top five under 17:00 at East Jordan.

Saranac is listed highly here, a main reason being their strong 4^th and 5^th men, perhaps not apparent in smaller fields, though advantageous in larger fields. With that said, watch out for Grand Rapids Covenant Christian who placed four runners ahead of Saranac’s 2^nd guy over in Region 21.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Hart	3	8	15	34	48	76	89
Traverse City St. Francis	13	19	28	40	50	61	72

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Hart	3	11	26	60	108
Traverse City St. Francis	13	32	60	100	150

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Jones	Benzie Central	1.00
2	12	Parks Allen	Ithaca	3.18
3	12	Clayton Ackley	Hart	3.93
4	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	4.30
5	11	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.30
6	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	5.48
7	12	Rogan Melling	Hanover-Horton	12.54
8	12	Wyatt Dean	Hart	12.69
9	12	Jake O’Neil	Remus Chippewa Hills	13.12
10	10	Theodore Davis	Dansville	13.69
11	11	Brad White	Clare	13.76
12	11	Ben March	St. Louis	14.31
13	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	15.51
14	11	Drew Moore	Grayling	16.51
15	12	William Winter	Parchment	18.40
16	12	Pol Molins	Benzie Central	19.78
17	12	Austin Brown	Hanover-Horton	20.13
18	12	Seth Ackley	Hart	21.25
19	12	Connor Stefanovsky	Caro	21.62
20	10	August Rohde	Reed City	22.21
21	11	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	22.35
22	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	22.73
23	10	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	23.00
24	11	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.89
25	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	24.06
26	12	Josh Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	25.48
27	12	Cameron Pierce	Leslie	26.99
28	12	Jackson Ansel	Erie Mason	27.45
29	12	Nathan Kippnick	Manchester	27.93
30	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	28.65
31	11	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	32.00
32	11	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	33.19
33	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	34.00
34	11	Ryan Allen	Reed City	35.47
35	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	39.62
36	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	39.98
37	11	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	41.13
38	10	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	42.13
39	11	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	42.35
40	12	Collin Cook	Stockbridge	43.18
41	11	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	43.45
42	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	43.53
43	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	43.60
44	12	Caiden Kippnick	Manchester	45.15
45	11	Nic Porter	Clare	45.67
46	12	Sammy Schmidt	Dansville	46.18
47	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	51.03
48	10	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	53.52
49	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	54.15
50	11	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	54.42
51	11	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	55.29
52	12	Dade Allen	Benzie Central	55.37
53	12	Levi Maier	Chesaning	59.16
54	10	Max Stitt	Hart	59.38
55	12	Cole Yaros	New Lothrop	65.15
56	11	Paxton Hall	Lake City	65.26
57	10	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	66.21
58	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	67.08
59	10	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	68.33
60	11	Andrew Klaus	Clare	68.50
61	12	Caleb Bitely	Hart	68.64
62	12	Elliott Rodgers	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	69.57
63	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	70.36
64	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	70.42
65	9	Landen Styka	Ithaca	71.00
66	10	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	71.13
67	12	Rhett Reif	Quincy	71.82
68	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	75.19
69	12	Jonah Shephard	Sanford-Meridian	75.52
70	12	Brody Amthor	Onsted	75.55
71	9	Ben Gautsche	Union City	76.11
72	12	Dylan Marr	St. Louis	77.00
73	11	Carter Holmes	Bath	77.03
74	11	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	77.33
75	10	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	78.29
76	12	Logan Patrick	Manton	79.66
77	10	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	80.10
78	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	81.42
79	11	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	82.06
80	12	Judge Morgan	Traverse City St. Francis	82.93
81	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	83.81
82	9	Julian Walker	Algonac	84.08
83	11	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	84.76
84	12	Max Mader	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	84.82
85	12	Ashton Wells	Bronson	84.96
86	12	Ty Kailing	Reed City	86.87
87	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	88.08
88	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	90.30
89	10	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	90.83
90	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	91.88
91	9	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	92.79
92	10	Luke Skidmore	Bath	95.34
93	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	95.74
94	12	Raymond Rogers	Charyl Stockwell Academy	97.80
95	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	98.24
96	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	99.94
97	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	101.70
98	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	102.15
99	12	Caleb Pohl	Pewamo-Westphalia	103.04
100	10	Olin Kasperowicz	Traverse City St. Francis	103.38

Hunter Jones is the clear, unadulterated favorite. Since donning the Benzie Central outfit in 2019, he’s been undefeated in any Division 3 XC race, demoralizing fields from his first steps out of the box. With a victory, he joins the ranks of very few (Boyles, Olling, VanderKooi, I ain’t a history buff) in attaining four consecutive State Titles.

The question is who grabs the next few spots? Nathan Jenkins and Samuel Martini locked heads in Region 21, Jenkins pulling away in the last mile. Clayton Ackley has won over 75% of his races this year, the lone defeats coming against upper division competition, Jones, or Parks Allen. Really though, any of those four plus Collin Farmer could be slotted into those places and I wouldn’t be surprised.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	150	84	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	175	5	45	95+
3	Hart	176	8	42	95+
4	Jackson Lumen Christi	202		10	95+
5	Lansing Catholic	203		7	95+
6	Elk Rapids	214			95+
7	Caro	267			95+
8	Leslie	274			93
9	Benzie Central	292			85
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	296			61
11	Onsted	301			58
12	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	331			6
13	Blissfield	363
14	Kalamazoo Christian	381
15	Kent City	385
16	Charlevoix	411
17	Monroe St. Mary CC	414
18	Ithaca	436
19	Sandusky	438
20	Clinton	452
21	Remus Chippewa Hills	459
22	St. Louis	463
23	Schoolcraft	478
24	University Liggett	545
25	Buchanan	564
26	Stockbridge	693
27	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	733

Should be one of the better team battles of the day. Traverse City St. Francis has spent the entire year as the top-ranked girls team. The week to week rankings value depth, the projected scoring shows the Glads strength as well. St. Francis has the best chance of their 6^th and 7^th girls acting as displacers and they have the fastest fifth in the field. Once again, I feel the Portage field is the closest comparison to the State level. There, the TCSF girls won by 10+ points over a field that features a great number of top-10 squads.

The weekly rankings are derived from comparing across the entirety of the division, as if it were one giant team race. With 27 teams in a state field, teams with a bit “weaker” (a relative term, anyone that’s made it here is kicking butt) 3^rd-5^th runners aren’t ranked as low compared to scoring across 100+ teams. Essentially, Lansing Catholic and Hart have moved up for these projections. They haven’t just moved up because of the field structure, both have found their less heralded runners exhibiting massive improvement. The kind of which can move them up the leaderboards as points are to be had when you drop from mid-22’s to low-21’s in a month.

That said, Pewamo-Westphalia is a real contender, with their 2^nd through 6^th girls tightly packed, crossing the finish line at DeWitt only a minute apart, only six places apart, capturing the regional championship ahead of Lansing Catholic. With six strong runners, the Pirates have back up if one were to have an “off” day, but also they benefit from the added chance that one or more have incredible days.

Jackson Lumen Christi races as smart as anyone you’ll see, catching bodies in the last mile a norm for the Titans. Finally, at Region 28, Elk Rapids was able to place four girls under 20:00 (also ahead of TCSF’s 4^th).

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Traverse City St. Francis	9	12	29	46	55	65	85
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	25	29	44	62	71	92
Hart	1	5	41	60	69	78	92
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	27	44	58	67	86	99
Lansing Catholic	3	6	12	81	101	118	147
Elk Rapids	13	35	42	51	73	84	93

You may notice some places from different teams are the same. These are average places from each team’s respective runners, not a set in stone list.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Traverse City St. Francis	9	21	49	95	150
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	40	69	113	175
Hart	1	6	47	107	176
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	33	77	135	202
Lansing Catholic	3	9	21	103	203
Elk Rapids	13	48	91	141	214

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.02
2	10	Emmry Ross	Onsted	3.49
3	12	CC Jones	Lansing Catholic	4.09
4	11	Alyson Enns	Hart	4.65
5	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	5.06
6	12	Hannah Pricco	Lansing Catholic	5.43
7	11	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.84
8	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.33
9	12	Sophia Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	10.84
10	10	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	11.82
11	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	12.97
12	11	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	13.24
13	11	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	13.28
14	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	14.76
15	9	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	15.04
16	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	16.02
17	11	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	16.74
18	10	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	18.11
19	10	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	18.53
20	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.35
21	12	Kara Terakedis	Onsted	22.37
22	11	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	22.41
23	9	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.90
24	12	Ava Maginity	Boyne City	22.97
25	9	Hope Miller	Blissfield	25.83
26	11	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	26.14
27	12	Ellymae McCoy	Reese	26.33
28	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	26.66
29	11	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	32.93
30	11	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	34.15
31	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	35.33
32	10	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	36.45
33	9	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	36.50
34	10	Kaya Vrable	Caro	36.52
35	12	Abby Arens	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.15
36	9	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	37.65
37	12	Ella Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.95
38	10	Kerith Short	University Liggett	39.11
39	10	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	39.78
40	10	Grace Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	39.95
41	11	Laina Sladics	Charlevoix	41.59
42	10	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	44.01
43	11	Paige Herron	Caro	48.36
44	11	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	49.03
45	12	Emma Soelberg	Shelby	49.17
46	10	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	49.27
47	12	Allie Koch	Manchester	49.87
48	11	Ava Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	53.85
49	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	54.23
50	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	55.30
51	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.29
52	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.68
53	11	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	57.89
54	10	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	59.97
55	9	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	59.99
56	11	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	60.45
57	9	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	60.47
58	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	61.21
59	12	Ashley Shindorf	Vassar	61.72
60	11	Kendall Standfest	Elk Rapids	62.34
61	10	Hunter Schellenbarger	Elk Rapids	64.68
62	11	Hayden Hengesbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.15
63	10	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	66.09
64	12	Bianca Delogu	Benzie Central	66.58
65	10	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	70.59
66	9	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	70.73
67	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	71.39
68	9	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	71.62
69	12	Hope Wilkes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	72.46
70	12	Lauren Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	73.02
71	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	73.95
72	12	Nora Smoes	Reed City	74.75
73	12	Penelope Griffioen	University Liggett	75.87
74	9	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	78.82
75	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	78.97
76	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	79.70
77	11	Rylee Duffing	Traverse City St. Francis	81.06
78	12	Allysen Jansen	Sandusky	81.57
79	12	Chloe Colton	Manton	82.00
80	12	Mari Cueto	Blissfield	83.48
81	11	Samantha Coots	Clinton	83.65
82	11	Faith Swenor	Caro	83.98
83	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	84.66
84	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	84.67
85	11	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	84.99
86	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	85.54
87	11	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	86.82
88	11	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	89.43
89	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	89.60
90	10	Makenzie Kreger	Sandusky	89.69
91	12	Gabrielle Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	90.78
92	11	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	91.20
93	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	92.44
94	10	Emma Wittenbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	93.75
95	12	Aaliyah Cota	Tawas	95.24
96	9	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	95.47
97	10	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	97.30
98	12	Savanna Owens	Hart	98.86
99	12	Hadley Saylor	Manton	101.74
100	12	Elizabeth Smith	Sanford-Meridian	102.37

Jessica Jazwinski has spent all year as the top-ranked girl in Division 3 and for good reason. She’s run at difficult courses (Chippewa Hills) and she’s run fast times (17:15) in her season full of victories. Her aggressive style, ripping it straight from the gun has paid off, in the past six weeks, any opportunity she’s truly raced has ended with a sub-18 time.

As with the boys, any one of the next six could grab 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, and I wouldn’t be shocked. Emmry Ross is the defending 400m state champ, undefeated on the year, has dropped nearly 2 minutes from her freshman best. Her and Alyson Enns are the only two girls to have gone sub-18 this fall. Madison Osterberg and Hannah Pricco are also blessed with 400m speed, both have also been All-State each time they’ve competed. CC Jones and Lila Volkers have shown championship mettle, CC capturing the Greater Lansing crown and Lila shredded the Allendale course in 18:03 en route to a regional victory. All six have had similar ratings throughout the year.

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I’ll end with a quote from Jason Kerr, “It is not about going out there and trying to prove people wrong. It is about going out there and proving your own belief in yourself and team right. You want it to be difficult, and you want it to mean something. You work too hard for anything less.”

May the cadence be quick and the times blazing. Have fun out there Saturday.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	The Potter’s House	36	95+	95+	95+
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	134		70	95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	147		29	95+
4	Harbor Springs	219			95+
5	Three Oaks River Valley	237			95+
6	Hillsdale Academy	238			95+
7	Adrian Lenawee Christian	272			95+
8	Mason County Eastern	276			95+
9	Whitmore Lake	287			88
10	Frankfort	320			63
11	Holland Calvary Christian	323			49
12	Concord	363			7
13	Kalamazoo Hackett	411
14	Pentwater	416
15	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	421
16	Brown City	429
17	Ubly	438
18	Battle Creek St. Philip	449
19	Petersburg-Summerfield	451
20	Breckenridge	469
21	Royal Oak Shrine	469
22	Mayville	477
23	Lutheran Westland	493
24	Novi Christian Academy	494
25	Webberville	504
26	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	590
27	Beal City	654

The Potter’s House is about as big a favorite you’ll find. You could take away two of Lezawe Osterink, Logan Swiney, and Jackson Rodriguez, and they’d still be the favorites. Their potential was known over the summer, adding Rodriguez off a stellar track season, bringing back Ian Palacios from a year away. Their prowess was evident early, dominating a field of D1/D2 teams at Under the Lights. More recently, the Pumas defeated a D4 top-10 heavy field at Portage, placing 4 in the top-10, swiftly improving Ezra Hagedorn close behind.

Johannesburg-Lewiston and Petoskey St. Michael are probably the best candidates of capturing the other podium spot. The two squads have faced off three times recently. The Guardians picked up victories at Bluejay and Portage, the Cardinals grabbed the regional title. That Region 29 race had Johannesburg at full strength, which may be the best indicator of their current condition. A point in favor of St. Michael is their reliability, especially in their 3^rd-5^th runners, who often race to a narrow range of ratings. Johannesburg has a bit more variability, but is trending towards quicker times (Ben Lauber with a 17:46 after running in the 19’s for much of the year, Jeremiah Witt improving as well).

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
The Potter’s House	1	2	4	11	18	26	43
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	13	20	37	60	88	145
Petoskey St. Michael	8	12	21	46	60	68	175

You may notice that the 5th boys for both Johannesburg-Lewiston and St. Michael are both listed at 60. Given the simulations, these are average places for whomever shows up as their 5th runner, not a set in stone placing.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
The Potter’s House	1	3	7	17	36
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	18	38	75	134
Petoskey St. Michael	8	20	41	87	147

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.01
2	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	3.16
3	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	3.60
4	12	Dakota Dykhuis	Montabella	5.67
5	12	Jacob Wartenberg	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.13
6	12	Cal Benjamin	Harbor Springs	6.76
7	12	Tyler Bays	Reading	7.41
8	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	7.79
9	11	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	9.17
10	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	9.57
11	12	Macartan Moore	Petoskey St. Michael	11.91
12	11	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	14.77
13	12	Nathan Wing	Mason County Eastern	16.00
14	12	Adair Artis	Concord	17.39
15	12	Zachary Maendel	Petoskey St. Michael	17.50
16	11	Ian Palacios	The Potter’s House	18.14
17	12	Skylar Werden	Frankfort	19.84
18	11	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.53
19	10	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	22.33
20	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	24.63
21	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	24.91
22	12	Ethan Green	Kingston	24.96
23	11	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	25.72
24	12	Evan Suydam	Petersburg-Summerfield	27.50
25	8	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	28.31
26	11	Michael Allen	East Jackson	28.58
27	9	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	30.17
28	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	31.28
29	11	Utah Gusa	Ubly	31.47
30	11	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	32.02
31	12	Ronin Vaden	Johannesburg-Lewiston	32.55
32	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	33.44
33	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	33.84
34	11	Luke Sprague	St Philip Catholic Central	36.18
35	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	37.01
36	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	39.00
37	11	Charlie DeVries	Byron Center Zion Christian	43.98
38	10	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	44.03
39	12	Owen Gross	Beal City	48.48
40	9	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	49.14
41	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	49.29
42	9	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	49.47
43	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	50.33
44	9	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	50.62
45	11	Alex Wanty	Hale	50.97
46	11	Adam Townsend	Frankfort	53.89
47	12	John Schoen	Capac	54.51
48	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	54.66
49	12	Kade Spahr	Pittsford	56.61
50	10	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	56.97
51	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	57.17
52	11	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	58.83
53	11	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	59.15
54	12	Brandon Thompson	Petersburg-Summerfield	60.33
55	9	Pierson Cousino	Adrian Lenawee Christian	63.75
56	10	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	64.07
57	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	65.37
58	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	66.04
59	12	Jackson Kulawiak	Buckley	66.13
60	10	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	66.57
61	11	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	67.15
62	12	Chase Snell	Grand Traverse Academy	67.29
63	11	Max Shugars	St Philip Catholic Central	67.60
64	11	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	67.82
65	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	68.90
66	11	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	71.05
67	11	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	71.08
68	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	71.09
69	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	71.79
70	9	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	72.32
71	11	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	72.59
72	10	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	74.98
73	9	Cole Bates	Concord	75.17
74	11	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	75.91
75	12	Lucas Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	76.59
76	12	Lars Huffman	Mackinaw City	77.55
77	11	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	79.76
78	11	Connor Rouse	Genesee	80.39
79	12	Bryson Bachelder	Morenci	82.60
80	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	82.74
81	9	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	84.73
82	9	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	84.80
83	12	Grant Long	Adrian Lenawee Christian	85.48
84	10	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	86.70
85	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	87.36
86	10	Kaleb Brown	Pentwater	89.36
87	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	90.13
88	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	91.80
89	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	93.47
90	12	Isaac Waldron	Concord	93.62
91	12	Caleb Diener	Hillsdale Academy	93.82
92	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	93.89
93	11	Levi Benzing	Petoskey St. Michael	94.78
94	11	Carter Follett	Merrill	96.55
95	8	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	96.86
96	8	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	97.18
97	11	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	97.30
98	12	Easton Jager	Brown City	98.40
99	9	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	99.11
100	10	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	100.08

Lezawe Osterink is clearly the class of the field. When he’s pushing the pace, as has happened a few times in 2022, at Spartan (15:20 – 218) and Portage (15:05 – 214), he’s one of the better runners to come through D4 in my memory. At Portage, probably the closest comparison to this field, he blew the rest of the field away by over a minute. He’ll be going for his second consecutive XC title.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	133	78	91	95+
2	Harbor Springs	158	13	47	95+
3	Whitmore Lake	160	6	43	95+
4	Hillsdale Academy	168	3	18	95+
5	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	218			95+
6	Kingston	289			95+
7	Unionville-Sebewaing	313			95+
8	Ubly	342			71
9	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	343			69
10	Grand Traverse Academy	347			52
11	Leland	366			39
12	Buckley	376			30
13	Libertas Christian	382			16
14	The Potter’s House	385			21
15	Farwell	395
16	Pittsford	407
17	Kalamazoo Hackett	412
18	Beal City	420
19	Breckenridge	423
20	Royal Oak Shrine	431
21	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	442
22	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	488
23	Mendon	493
24	Concord	539
25	Adrian Lenawee Christian	560
26	Petoskey St. Michael	560
27	Fowler	594

This is shaping up to be a very good team race. Although there’s a bit of a point gap between Johannesburg-Lewiston and Harbor Springs, Whitmore Lake, and Hillsdale Academy, there’s a decent enough chance that one of the latter three comes home with the trophy.

Both Johannesburg and Harbor Springs had a bump up the D4 rankings around mid-season. The Cardinals owed their rise to a 2nd place finish in a D2/D3-centric field at Bluejay, the Rams hung with the best D3 has to offer at Petoskey. The two schools have faced off recently, at Northern Michigan and Region 29, Harbor Springs capturing both of those by a grand total of one point (though Johannesburg was missing two of their varsity runners for Northern Michigan).

Hillsdale Academy and Whitmore Lake locked up at Holly, the Colts taking a 3 point victory, in large part through their 3rd girl coming in before the Trojans’ 2nd. That was before Natalie Meadows began to find the form that led her to an All-State finish last year. She’s been sub-21 in 4 of her past 5 races, leading Whitmore Lake to a MIAC title (perhaps, pound for pound, the best conference in the state). Hillsdale has had similar championship season success, attaining victories at both Class D and Region 34.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Johannesburg-Lewiston	4	7	27	43	51	62	91
Harbor Springs	11	16	30	43	58	70	86
Whitmore Lake	3	25	36	43	52	94	116
Hillsdale Academy	13	19	29	49	59	70	83

You may notice that the 4th girls for Johannesburg-Lewiston, Whitmore Lake, and Harbor Springs all are listed in 43rd place. Given the simulations, this is an average place from anyone that’s projected to be their 4th runner. You could have a girl that’s mega consistent and projects to be between 40th-46th and another one with a range of 23rd-63rd. Both may emit the same average, but get there through wildly different scenarios.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Johannesburg Lewiston	4	12	39	82	133
Harbor Springs	11	27	57	101	158
Whitmore Lake	3	29	65	107	160
Hillsdale Academy	13	31	60	109	168

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.14
2	10	Presley Allen	Mendon	2.49
3	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	3.97
4	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	4.24
5	10	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.06
6	10	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.58
7	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.89
8	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	8.28
9	9	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	8.59
10	12	Petra Foote	Grand Traverse Academy	13.78
11	12	Grace Thorpe	Harbor Springs	14.16
12	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.39
13	11	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	15.01
14	10	Ella Knudsen	Leland	15.59
15	12	Megan Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	15.90
16	10	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	16.60
17	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	17.60
18	9	Rowan Allen	Mendon	18.58
19	10	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.91
20	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	21.21
21	11	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	22.20
22	9	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	22.90
23	10	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	27.87
24	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	29.27
25	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	31.04
26	10	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	31.71
27	11	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	32.91
28	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	33.17
29	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	33.19
30	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	33.56
31	9	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	35.28
32	12	Mackenzie Lemke	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	35.50
33	12	Maze Gusa	Ubly	35.58
34	12	Kaylee Locke	Beal City	35.84
35	12	Gabriella Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	37.06
36	10	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	38.06
37	10	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	39.23
38	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	39.70
39	11	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	40.11
40	10	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	42.43
41	9	Cieara Barrett	Concord	43.38
42	12	Sophia Sanford	Deckerville	45.56
43	9	Emersyn Bachelder	Morenci	53.22
44	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	53.38
45	10	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	53.59
46	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	55.29
47	11	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	57.89
48	12	Anna Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	58.73
49	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	58.79
50	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	59.89
51	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	59.93
52	9	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	60.05
53	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	60.82
54	9	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	61.18
55	10	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	61.55
56	12	Dani VanLente	Tekonsha	62.34
57	9	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	62.67
58	10	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	62.70
59	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	63.88
60	12	Sydney Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	65.51
61	10	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	65.83
62	12	Natalie Zochowski	Johannesburg-Lewiston	65.93
63	12	Julia Jones	Grand Traverse Academy	67.81
64	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	67.97
65	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	68.05
66	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	68.35
67	10	Mya Denoyer	Leland	69.35
68	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	69.71
69	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	70.23
70	10	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	70.88
71	11	Gracy Walker	Kingston	71.29
72	9	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	72.29
73	9	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	72.74
74	11	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	73.00
75	12	Whitney Wilkinson	Hillsdale Academy	73.29
76	11	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	77.01
77	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	77.83
78	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	78.11
79	10	Ava Wilson	Fruitport Calvary Christian	80.20
80	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	80.53
81	10	Ada Grubaugh	Frankfort	81.39
82	10	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	83.36
83	11	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	84.62
84	12	Autumn Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	85.01
85	12	Abigail Guza	Ubly	85.53
86	11	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	85.79
87	9	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	88.26
88	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	88.81
89	9	Molly Walker	Kingston	90.13
90	9	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	90.80
91	9	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	91.65
92	9	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	93.42
93	9	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	93.97
94	9	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	94.45
95	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	98.12
96	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	98.53
97	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	99.49
98	11	Lilli Stanzel	Colon	101.25
99	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran HS Westland	101.56
100	10	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	102.54

Aiden Harrand took her lumps behind Makenna Scott and Abby VanderKooi, now it’s time for her to shine on the cross course. She’s been undefeated this year at the D4 level, her only loss coming at Sparta against D3 competition. She’s no stranger to the big stage, placing top-5 here each of the past two years and winning titles on the track in the spring. Two efforts from her season speak to her potential dominance, the 18:41 in the heat at Sparta and the 18:33 at Shepherd.

Presley Allen has the best chance of anyone in the field of matching Aiden. Her 19:10 at Portage was only a few seconds back and she has championship experience as well, placing 6th here in 2021 and All-State in the 1600/3200m during the spring.

Boys Adjustment: +40
Girls Adjustment: +47

PROJECTIONS

How Right/Wrong Was I? 5/6 of the top 3 teams, with the Leland Girls putting their best foot forth. 187/216 altogether on the top 3 teams (I think Jacob Tanner had 189, yeah I checked, I’m competitive *shrugs*). Anyhow, the previous four seasons, I’ve had 183, 187, 188, and 190, so this is right in line with that average. As I’ve always said, this sport would be quite boring if it were predictable. 29 separate teams rendering those numbers useless, we love to see it. And heck, even a few teams with 4 in the top 20!

BUCKLEY’S BEARS

Garret Ensor, Buckley: One season of cross country as a senior, one regional meet, one chance to bypass the 18’s and run a massive personal best. Garret’s 17:53 was way beyond anything he’s shown on a XC course and it earned him a trip down to Brooklyn.

Ariana Rodriguez, Leland: What a ride it’s been for Ariana. She joined the Leland team as a junior and commenced her career with a few efforts above 29:00. Toward the end of that season, she had gotten into the 23’s, an area where she started her senior year. A few months later, she’s still improving, all the way into the 20’s, helping spring the Comets to a drive down south.

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Nathan Wing	16:25.5	Mason County Eastern	178.2
10	Mason Sinke	16:37.6	Bear Lake-Onekama	174.1
12	Skylar Werden	16:38.8	Frankfort	173.7
10	Colebrook Sutherland	16:55.6	Maple City Glen Lake	168.1
11	Abe VanDuinen	16:59.9	Pentwater	166.7
11	Adam Townsend	17:12.5	Frankfort	162.5
10	Alex Tyndall	17:16.2	Mason County Eastern	161.3
12	Chase Snell	17:16.3	Grand Traverse Academy	161.2
11	Peter Hybza	17:18.6	Mason County Eastern	160.5
12	Jackson Kulawiak	17:24.9	Buckley	158.4
11	Kaden Forward	17:27.2	Bear Lake-Onekama	157.6
11	Mitchel Daniels	17:35.4	Pentwater	154.9
10	Kaleb Brown	17:36.9	Pentwater	154.4
11	Luke Niedzielski	17:37.7	Mason County Eastern	154.1
9	Oliver Mitchell	17:38.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	153.8
12	Garret Ensor	17:53.3	Buckley	148.9
12	Joey Schwindt	17:53.4	Maple City Glen Lake	148.9
10	Ron Hasenbank	18:00.0	Mason County Eastern	146.7
9	Jacob Plamondon	18:01.7	Maple City Glen Lake	146.1
11	Clay Shoup	18:04.2	Mason County Eastern	145.3
10	Carroll Robotham	18:05.3	Frankfort	144.9
12	Trevor Moody	18:07.0	Frankfort	144.3
10	Henry Malburg	18:22.1	Mason County Eastern	139.3
9	Keith Crompton	18:28.8	Frankfort	137.1
12	Braden Melville	18:34.4	Buckley	135.2
9	Wyatt Roberts	18:35.2	Pentwater	134.9
9	Cody Couturier	18:39.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	133.6
12	Colton Manthei	18:42.5	Grand Traverse Academy	132.5
11	Aiden O’Dwyer	18:44.7	Frankfort	131.8
10	Ryan Grinage	18:45.9	Leland	131.4
9	Matthew Bentley	18:58.0	Buckley	127.3
12	James Davis	19:00.2	Pentwater	126.6
10	Kaleb Chisholm	19:04.4	Frankfort	125.2
9	Liam McCaw	19:10.3	Maple City Glen Lake	123.2
9	Garrick Collins	19:25.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	118.2
8	Garrett Grant	19:25.4	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	118.2
11	Tristan Bembeneck	19:34.2	Grand Traverse Academy	115.3
10	Landon Kulawiak	19:39.6	Buckley	113.5
11	Steven Hossler	19:39.8	Baldwin	113.4
12	Orion Clarke	20:03.1	Leland	105.6
9	Bode Powell	20:06.7	Pentwater	104.4
10	Parker Rubin	20:13.1	Grand Traverse Academy	102.3
10	Anthony Grant	20:13.4	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	102.2
12	Kyle Deshasier	20:14.6	Buckley	101.8
9	Tobin Allen	20:15.0	Grand Traverse Academy	101.7
9	Derek Graham	20:16.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	101.2
9	Caleb Forward	20:16.8	Bear Lake-Onekama	101.1
12	Riley Truog	20:18.0	Maple City Glen Lake	100.7
11	Jaiden Thompson	20:29.4	Maple City Glen Lake	96.9
9	Logan Fatura	20:31.3	Pentwater	96.2
9	Cody Linna	20:32.6	Mesick	95.8
9	Isaac Whipple	20:34.9	Grand Traverse Academy	95.0
10	Weston Kinney	20:55.0	Grand Traverse Academy	88.3
9	Easton Nowak	21:35.5	Bear Lake-Onekama	74.8
12	Nick Lingaur	21:37.7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	74.1
9	Cason Adams	22:16.0	Maple City Glen Lake	61.3
9	Joshua Walker	22:29.5	Mesick	56.8
10	Trist’n Manning	22:39.5	Mesick	53.5
10	Seth VanNortrick	24:56.7	Mesick	7.8

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Aiden Harrand	18:11.0	Buckley	140.7
12	Petra Foote	19:00.6	Grand Traverse Academy	124.1
10	Ella Knudsen	19:34.9	Leland	112.7
10	Lucy Shoup	19:38.0	Mason County Eastern	111.7
9	Lauren Niedzielski	20:10.3	Mason County Eastern	100.9
12	Anna Mitchell	20:18.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	98.2
9	Brooklynn Frazee	20:21.1	Buckley	97.3
12	Julia Jones	20:21.5	Grand Traverse Academy	97.2
9	Addison Chownyk	20:32.4	Frankfort	93.5
10	Mya Denoyer	20:38.1	Leland	91.6
9	Shenoah Collier	20:38.4	Grand Traverse Academy	91.5
12	Ariana Rodriguez	20:49.1	Leland	88.0
11	Olivia Wing	20:54.9	Mason County Eastern	86.0
10	Ada Grubaugh	21:03.5	Frankfort	83.2
12	Bridgette Duncan	21:13.1	Leland	80.0
9	Kinsey Peer	21:25.1	Buckley	76.0
12	Anna Wolfe	21:36.3	Frankfort	72.2
11	Paige Bell	21:47.6	Grand Traverse Academy	68.5
9	Jennifer Kmiecik	21:57.3	Bear Lake-Onekama	65.2
9	Addisen Harrand	21:58.9	Buckley	64.7
12	Anna VanDuinen	22:05.0	Pentwater	62.7
9	Natalie Brown	22:25.4	Bear Lake-Onekama	55.9
9	Isabella Crompton	22:30.7	Frankfort	54.1
10	Kate May	22:38.8	Frankfort	51.4
9	Sofia Alaimo	22:45.9	Frankfort	49.0
12	Meagan Lange	22:46.8	Forest Area	48.7
11	Kendra Couturier	23:07.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	41.8
10	Isabel Lopez	23:08.3	Pentwater	41.6
11	Abby Kissling	23:09.2	Brethren	41.3
12	Milla Klomp	23:10.7	Buckley	40.8
11	Ava Butera	23:19.1	Grand Traverse Academy	38.0
10	Jessica Grant	23:19.7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	37.8
11	Lillie Tscirhart	23:21.1	Grand Traverse Academy	37.3
12	Audrey Smith	23:28.8	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	34.7
12	Josie Gorcyca	23:45.0	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	29.3
10	Savina Anhalt	23:53.6	Frankfort	26.5
10	Muriel Korson	23:57.2	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	25.3
11	Alleah Dix	24:01.5	Grand Traverse Academy	23.8
12	Angela Ramiro Puebla	24:08.7	Mason County Eastern	21.4
9	Elena Hopkins	24:11.2	Mason County Eastern	20.6
10	Jacqueline Hearne	24:18.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	18.2
12	Chloe Ninon Treguier	24:27.6	Mason County Eastern	15.1
12	Teri Wieling	24:29.6	Forest Area	14.5
9	Lauren Davis	24:41.2	Pentwater	10.6
11	Abby Hughes	24:46.9	Pentwater	8.7
9	Kayla Milarch	24:49.2	Buckley	7.9
9	Natalie Myers	24:55.2	Brethren	5.9
12	Ashlynn Wardie	24:59.4	Brethren	4.5