2022 Regional Projections – DeWitt Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	46	94	95+
2	Ithaca	59	6	95+
3	Bath	89		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Parks Allen	Ithaca	1.24
2	11	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.76
3	12	Levi Maier	Chesaning	4.42
4	11	Carter Holmes	Bath	4.78
5	12	Cole Yaros	New Lothrop	5.23
6	10	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.29
7	9	Landen Styka	Ithaca	7.19
8	9	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	8.80
9	10	Luke Skidmore	Bath	9.43
10	12	Caleb Pohl	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.27
11	12	Lane McDonald	Ithaca	11.95
12	12	Ryan Heslip	New Lothrop	14.07
13	10	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.09
14	9	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	14.88
15	12	Landon Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.48
16	10	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	15.83
17	11	Stephen Fair	Lansing Catholic	16.48
18	11	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	16.55
19	10	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	16.98
20	12	Alex S. Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.35
21	9	Luke Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	21.61
22	12	Steven Butler	Almont	22.33
23	12	Peter Dudley	Lansing Catholic	22.84
24	12	Devyn Whitford	Ithaca	26.15
25	12	Hayden Vlasic	Bath	26.66
26	10	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	27.61
27	10	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	28.04
28	9	James Foltz	Laingsburg	28.62
29	12	Corbin Walker	Chesaning	31.49
30	9	Jack Koenigsknecht	Bath	31.72

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	35	78	95+
2	Lansing Catholic	41	22	95+
3	Ithaca	89		90
4	Laingsburg	107		10

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	CC Jones	Lansing Catholic	1.48
2	12	Hannah Pricco	Lansing Catholic	1.53
3	11	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	3.12
4	10	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	4.02
5	11	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	4.91
6	12	Abby Arens	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.40
7	12	Ella Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.69
8	11	Hayden Hengesbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.23
9	10	Emma Wittenbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.00
10	11	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.46
11	10	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	12.30
12	10	Piper White	Ovid-Elsie	13.42
13	9	Anna Poppema	Bath	14.27
14	12	Alexis Spitzley	Ovid-Elsie	16.40
15	9	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	16.89
16	9	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	16.98
17	9	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	17.38
18	11	Isabell Helman	Pewamo-Westphalia	17.84
19	12	India Doerr	Lansing Catholic	18.51
20	9	Madison Phillips	Laingsburg	19.50
21	9	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	20.94
22	10	Karisa Deacons	Ithaca	21.75
23	10	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	22.50
24	10	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	25.42
25	10	Hayden Whitmore	Ithaca	26.14
26	11	Klara Mulcahy	New Lothrop	27.96
27	9	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	27.98
28	9	Stella Lipinski	Lansing Catholic	28.37
29	9	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	28.77
30	10	Teagen Hallock	Perry	29.46

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Johns	60	95+	95+
2	Mason	110		94
3	DeWitt	115		79
4	Eaton Rapids	127		21
5	Corunna	137		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Joey Bowman	St. Johns	1.02
2	11	Nate Carmody	Haslett	1.98
3	11	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	4.09
4	12	Camden Johnecheck	Williamston	4.28
5	12	Koda Brandt	Charlotte	6.04
6	10	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	6.52
7	12	Tyler Dohm	St. Johns	7.53
8	10	Alex Doneth	Mason	7.60
9	11	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	7.84
10	11	Conner Fountain	Olivet	11.91
11	12	Austin Rybolt	Eaton Rapids	12.44
12	11	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	12.45
13	12	James Meninga	Mason	12.45
14	12	Logan Roka	Corunna	14.07
15	12	Brett Marschall	Fowlerville	14.09
16	11	Kenny Evans	Corunna	14.23
17	11	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	17.07
18	10	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	18.27
19	11	Brennan McKone	DeWitt	19.07
20	10	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	19.76
21	9	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	20.49
22	10	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	23.37
23	12	Alex Redman	Mason	25.72
24	10	Drew Holevac	Eaton Rapids	27.32
25	10	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	27.35
26	12	Zach Kubish	Parma Western	29.37
27	9	Payton Chandler	Corunna	29.62
28	10	Xander Maliska	St. Johns	30.12
29	10	Thomas Boks	Olivet	30.45
30	12	Sebastian Erbe	Mason	30.84

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Williamston	68	42	95+
2	St. Johns	70	30	95+
3	DeWitt	71	28	95+
4	Owosso	94		10

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	1.94
2	11	Meghan Ford	Mason	2.08
3	10	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	3.73
4	11	Abby Young	St. Johns	4.44
5	12	Lauren Hunter	Haslett	6.23
6	10	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	7.31
7	11	Libby Summerland	Owosso	7.85
8	10	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	7.89
9	10	Jaiden Griffith	Williamston	8.00
10	10	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	8.59
11	9	Sydney Ferguson	DeWitt	9.86
12	9	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	13.87
13	11	Sydney Thompson	Eaton Rapids	15.61
14	9	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	16.43
15	9	Emma Crandell	Owosso	16.53
16	11	Dora Henry	Haslett	18.08
17	9	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	18.15
18	11	Sylvia Thomas	St. Johns	19.12
19	12	Elleah Berger	Williamston	21.09
20	10	Julionna West	Owosso	21.29
21	12	Samantha Sweeney	Williamston	22.06
22	12	Marie Schafer	Williamston	22.62
23	10	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	23.60
24	10	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	24.29
25	9	Emily Agnew	DeWitt	24.48
26	11	Elisa Galeone	Haslett	24.84
27	9	Abby Russel	Haslett	27.69
28	12	Kyra Shadduck	DeWitt	28.86
29	9	Kennedie Crow	Eaton Rapids	29.44
30	12	Samantha Howard	Lansing Waverly	29.89