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2022 Regional Projections – DeWitt Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Pewamo-Westphalia469495+
2Ithaca59695+
3Bath8995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Parks AllenIthaca1.24
211Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia1.76
312Levi MaierChesaning4.42
411Carter HolmesBath4.78
512Cole YarosNew Lothrop5.23
610Allan GeorgePewamo-Westphalia5.29
79Landen StykaIthaca7.19
89Noah DevereauxLaingsburg8.80
910Luke SkidmoreBath9.43
1012Caleb PohlPewamo-Westphalia10.27
1112Lane McDonaldIthaca11.95
1212Ryan HeslipNew Lothrop14.07
1310Sam MuirheadPewamo-Westphalia14.09
149Lucas GatesLansing Catholic14.88
1512Landon ThelenPewamo-Westphalia15.48
1610Miingen BertrandIthaca15.83
1711Stephen FairLansing Catholic16.48
1811Andrew KoenigsknechtBath16.55
1910Clay PowellOvid-Elsie16.98
2012Alex S. ThelenPewamo-Westphalia19.35
219Luke SchneiderPewamo-Westphalia21.61
2212Steven ButlerAlmont22.33
2312Peter DudleyLansing Catholic22.84
2412Devyn WhitfordIthaca26.15
2512Hayden VlasicBath26.66
2610Lieu VinckeNew Lothrop27.61
2710Brent DeSaegherIthaca28.04
289James FoltzLaingsburg28.62
2912Corbin WalkerChesaning31.49
309Jack KoenigsknechtBath31.72

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Pewamo-Westphalia357895+
2Lansing Catholic412295+
3Ithaca8990
4Laingsburg10710

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112CC JonesLansing Catholic1.48
212Hannah PriccoLansing Catholic1.53
311Tessa RoeLansing Catholic3.12
410Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia4.02
511Liliana LehnstIthaca4.91
612Abby ArensPewamo-Westphalia6.40
712Ella KowatchPewamo-Westphalia6.69
811Hayden HengesbachPewamo-Westphalia8.23
910Emma WittenbachPewamo-Westphalia10.00
1011Melanie WernerPewamo-Westphalia11.46
1110Emily RathkaLaingsburg12.30
1210Piper WhiteOvid-Elsie13.42
139Anna PoppemaBath14.27
1412Alexis SpitzleyOvid-Elsie16.40
159Izabelle LaLoneIthaca16.89
169Clarissa BaeseOvid-Elsie16.98
179Frances MelinnLansing Catholic17.38
1811Isabell HelmanPewamo-Westphalia17.84
1912India DoerrLansing Catholic18.51
209Madison PhillipsLaingsburg19.50
219Emma DaweIthaca20.94
2210Karisa DeaconsIthaca21.75
2310Evelyn LoggheLaingsburg22.50
2410Addison RuszLaingsburg25.42
2510Hayden WhitmoreIthaca26.14
2611Klara MulcahyNew Lothrop27.96
279Hazel BurleyLaingsburg27.98
289Stella LipinskiLansing Catholic28.37
299Myleigh HephnerIthaca28.77
3010Teagen HallockPerry29.46

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1St. Johns6095+95+
2Mason11094
3DeWitt11579
4Eaton Rapids12721
5Corunna1376

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Joey BowmanSt. Johns1.02
211Nate CarmodyHaslett1.98
311Isaac StaibSt. Johns4.09
412Camden JohnecheckWilliamston4.28
512Koda BrandtCharlotte6.04
610Nolan InglisDeWitt6.52
712Tyler DohmSt. Johns7.53
810Alex DonethMason7.60
911Lucas HopkinsOlivet7.84
1011Conner FountainOlivet11.91
1112Austin RyboltEaton Rapids12.44
1211Cooper SingletonParma Western12.45
1312James MeningaMason12.45
1412Logan RokaCorunna14.07
1512Brett MarschallFowlerville14.09
1611Kenny EvansCorunna14.23
1711Matthew SchraubenSt. Johns17.07
1810Jack HuntingtonEaton Rapids18.27
1911Brennan McKoneDeWitt19.07
2010Dylan LydicHaslett19.76
219Edison LopemanParma Western20.49
2210Simon ErfourthOwosso23.37
2312Alex RedmanMason25.72
2410Drew HolevacEaton Rapids27.32
2510Jackson WalthornDeWitt27.35
2612Zach KubishParma Western29.37
279Payton ChandlerCorunna29.62
2810Xander MaliskaSt. Johns30.12
2910Thomas BoksOlivet30.45
3012Sebastian ErbeMason30.84

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Williamston684295+
2St. Johns703095+
3DeWitt712895+
4Owosso9410

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Clara FletcherSt. Johns1.94
211Meghan FordMason2.08
310Nicole SchaferWilliamston3.73
411Abby YoungSt. Johns4.44
512Lauren HunterHaslett6.23
610Kayla WilliamsDeWitt7.31
711Libby SummerlandOwosso7.85
810Josie JenkinsonOwosso7.89
910Jaiden GriffithWilliamston8.00
1010Autumn ThompsonDeWitt8.59
119Sydney FergusonDeWitt9.86
129Miriam KlohaSt. Johns13.87
1311Sydney ThompsonEaton Rapids15.61
149Chloe KhonJackson Northwest16.43
159Emma CrandellOwosso16.53
1611Dora HenryHaslett18.08
179Reese SupianoskiWilliamston18.15
1811Sylvia ThomasSt. Johns19.12
1912Elleah BergerWilliamston21.09
2010Julionna WestOwosso21.29
2112Samantha SweeneyWilliamston22.06
2212Marie SchaferWilliamston22.62
2310Ayla HolbenDeWitt23.60
2410Hayven ThielCorunna24.29
259Emily AgnewDeWitt24.48
2611Elisa GaleoneHaslett24.84
279Abby RusselHaslett27.69
2812Kyra ShadduckDeWitt28.86
299Kennedie CrowEaton Rapids29.44
3012Samantha HowardLansing Waverly29.89

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