2022 Regional Projections – Hess Hathaway Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pinckney	32	95+	95+
2	Linden	81		95+
3	Detroit Country Day	132		66
4	Goodrich	135		31

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyle Eberhard	Linden	1.62
2	11	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	1.75
3	11	Solomon Kwartowitz	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	3.43
4	12	Zach Debeauclair	Pinckney	4.93
5	11	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	5.37
6	11	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	5.40
7	11	Paul Moore	Pinckney	6.26
8	12	Nik Shilling	Ortonville Brandon	9.77
9	12	Ryan Blackwood	Linden	9.99
10	12	Noah Walters	Redford Union	11.22
11	11	Liam Collins	Brother Rice	11.29
12	11	Cooper Grzeskowiak	Goodrich	13.68
13	12	Ben Richards	Pinckney	13.90
14	12	Ben Yu	Detroit Country Day	14.93
15	11	Arnot Heller	Detroit Country Day	15.03
16	9	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	15.09
17	12	Clayton Akerman	Linden	15.91
18	9	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	17.83
19	11	Joshua Simpson	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	19.41
20	12	Thomas Lepper	Pinckney	19.48
21	10	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	21.89
22	12	Oswaldo Dominguez	Pontiac	23.32
23	9	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	24.00
24	12	Ben Kinkade	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	24.49
25	11	Ian Martin	Linden	24.88
26	10	Cole Winter	Goodrich	25.27
27	10	Zach Newman	Pinckney	25.94
28	10	Caleb Goldstein	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	27.81
29	11	Eric Shan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	31.19
30	10	Blaise Gooding	Linden	31.86

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Goodrich	28	95+	95+
2	Linden	81		95+
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	98		73
4	Detroit Country Day	106		27

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	1.06
2	12	Sophie Endrud	Detroit Country Day	2.44
3	10	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	3.13
4	10	Mea D’agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.60
5	11	Alexis Waring	Goodrich	5.22
6	10	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	5.93
7	10	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	7.15
8	12	Colleen Blackwood	Linden	8.03
9	12	Brigit Foley	Wixom St. Catherine	11.04
10	11	Ava Fahrenkopf	Linden	11.36
11	11	Reagan Brooks	Linden	11.53
12	9	Isabella Dunn	Goodrich	12.68
13	10	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	15.63
14	10	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	15.89
15	10	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	16.21
16	10	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	16.33
17	11	Zoe Hoke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	16.82
18	10	Natalie Steward	Goodrich	17.87
19	9	Madeline Dunn	Goodrich	19.03
20	10	Abby Walton	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.26
21	JR	Stellah Strauss	Linden	20.04
22	10	Sofia Minniti	Wixom St. Catherine	20.46
23	10	Sadie Scribner	Ortonville Brandon	21.22
24	11	Molly O’Brien	Bloomfield Hills Marian	23.37
25	12	Courtney Cassidy	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	25.90
26	10	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	26.65
27	11	Madison Juchno	Wixom St. Catherine	28.04
28	9	Cristina Wenderski	Wixom St. Catherine	28.07
29	11	Madelyn Strauss	Linden	29.80
30	10	Danielle St. James	Ortonville Brandon	31.46

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Clarkston	55	87	95+
2	Troy	71	13	95+
3	Oxford	94		60
4	Utica	100		42

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Trent McFarland	Utica	1.13
2	11	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	3.15
3	11	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	3.56
4	12	Ethan Pruzinsky	Auburn Hills Avondale	3.67
5	10	Taye (Sintayehu) Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	4.25
6	11	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	6.61
7	12	Henry Poploskie	Clarkston	6.88
8	11	Louis D’Souza	Troy	8.32
9	10	Alex McArthur	Oxford	10.28
10	10	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	10.71
11	11	Andrew Floros	Clarkston	10.85
12	11	Ferdinand Viereck	Rochester Adams	13.29
13	10	James Cusick	Oxford	15.63
14	10	Blake Peardon	Lake Orion	17.45
15	12	Nathan D’Souza	Rochester Adams	18.12
16	10	Akshat Arora	Troy	18.47
17	10	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	19.75
18	9	Harper Wesley	Utica	20.14
19	10	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	20.54
20	10	Max Myrand	Oxford	21.08
21	12	Xavier Clark	Oxford	21.23
22	10	Cole Maxwell	Rochester Adams	21.79
23	12	Logan Davis	Utica	21.79
24	12	Teddy Shi	Troy	22.96
25	11	Jacob Esser	Troy Athens	27.13
26	12	Kyle DiMalanta	Oxford	27.68
27	10	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	28.63
28	10	Luke Morehouse	Utica	29.38
29	11	Danny Boyd	Utica	29.61
30	12	Horacio Lopez	Lake Orion	30.04

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Oxford	51	95+	95+
2	Troy	84		86
3	Utica	88		71
4	Rochester	95		31
5	Clarkston	106		12

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lucy Cook	Rochester	1.03
2	10	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	2.51
3	11	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	2.77
4	10	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	4.35
5	12	Chloe Nixon	Rochester	6.58
6	11	Braydee Elling	Oxford	6.66
7	11	Addison Johnson	Utica	7.50
8	12	Amanda Soldan	Rochester Adams	7.59
9	12	Lauren Wroza	Rochester	9.39
10	12	Charlotte Gullion	Troy	11.08
11	9	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	11.44
12	9	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	11.96
13	12	Elaina Rondeau	Troy	12.89
14	9	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	13.74
15	12	Meagan Verellen	Utica	17.45
16	10	Stella Phillips	Rochester Adams	17.61
17	9	Camryn Quidort	Oxford	18.55
18	10	Madie Miller	Troy	19.62
19	12	Rebekah Wilson	Clarkston	21.45
20	10	Addison Verlinden	Lake Orion	22.31
21	11	Aubrey Mery	Oxford	22.33
22	9	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	22.77
23	12	Ava Rawley	Utica	24.77
24	10	Jamie Patterson	Oxford	25.76
25	12	Maisie Konwinski	Troy	26.82
26	12	Cate Cotter	Clarkston	28.59
27	11	Sarah Barnett	Royal Oak	28.60
28	12	Abby Fifield	Utica	29.79
29	11	Natalie Bales	Oxford	31.14
30	9	Nadia Fedorinchik	Lake Orion	31.48