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2022 Regional Projections – Hess Hathaway Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Pinckney3295+95+
2Linden8195+
3Detroit Country Day13266
4Goodrich13531

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Kyle EberhardLinden1.62
211Evan LoughridgePinckney1.75
311Solomon KwartowitzBloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood3.43
412Zach DebeauclairPinckney4.93
511Nolan PinionLake Fenton5.37
611Ethan SandulaPinckney5.40
711Paul MoorePinckney6.26
812Nik ShillingOrtonville Brandon9.77
912Ryan BlackwoodLinden9.99
1012Noah WaltersRedford Union11.22
1111Liam CollinsBrother Rice11.29
1211Cooper GrzeskowiakGoodrich13.68
1312Ben RichardsPinckney13.90
1412Ben YuDetroit Country Day14.93
1511Arnot HellerDetroit Country Day15.03
169Cole WisniewskiOrchard Lake St. Mary’s15.09
1712Clayton AkermanLinden15.91
189Vincent PattisonGoodrich17.83
1911Joshua SimpsonOrchard Lake St. Mary’s19.41
2012Thomas LepperPinckney19.48
2110Jacob HopkinsDetroit Country Day21.89
2212Oswaldo DominguezPontiac23.32
239Nolan CollinsBrother Rice24.00
2412Ben KinkadePontiac Notre Dame Prep24.49
2511Ian MartinLinden24.88
2610Cole WinterGoodrich25.27
2710Zach NewmanPinckney25.94
2810Caleb GoldsteinBloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood27.81
2911Eric ShanBloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood31.19
3010Blaise GoodingLinden31.86

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Goodrich2895+95+
2Linden8195+
3Pontiac Notre Dame Prep9873
4Detroit Country Day10627

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Kamryn LauingerGoodrich1.06
212Sophie EndrudDetroit Country Day2.44
310Layla JordanGoodrich3.13
410Mea D’agostinoOrchard Lake St. Mary’s4.60
511Alexis WaringGoodrich5.22
610Maria NunningPontiac Notre Dame Prep5.93
710Avery ByrneGoodrich7.15
812Colleen BlackwoodLinden8.03
912Brigit FoleyWixom St. Catherine11.04
1011Ava FahrenkopfLinden11.36
1111Reagan BrooksLinden11.53
129Isabella DunnGoodrich12.68
1310Skylar VanheckePontiac Notre Dame Prep15.63
1410Nell StoverDetroit Country Day15.89
1510Claire HellerDetroit Country Day16.21
1610Madalynn KarsiesPinckney16.33
1711Zoe HokePontiac Notre Dame Prep16.82
1810Natalie StewardGoodrich17.87
199Madeline DunnGoodrich19.03
2010Abby WaltonBloomfield Hills Marian19.26
21JRStellah StraussLinden20.04
2210Sofia MinnitiWixom St. Catherine20.46
2310Sadie ScribnerOrtonville Brandon21.22
2411Molly O’BrienBloomfield Hills Marian23.37
2512Courtney CassidyBloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood25.90
2610Mary LaroccaPontiac Notre Dame Prep26.65
2711Madison JuchnoWixom St. Catherine28.04
289Cristina WenderskiWixom St. Catherine28.07
2911Madelyn StraussLinden29.80
3010Danielle St. JamesOrtonville Brandon31.46

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Clarkston558795+
2Troy711395+
3Oxford9460
4Utica10042

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Trent McFarlandUtica1.13
211Sebastian RamirezRoyal Oak3.15
311Vishvaa RavishankarTroy3.56
412Ethan PruzinskyAuburn Hills Avondale3.67
510Taye (Sintayehu) LevensonBloomfield Hills4.25
611Bryce NowikClarkston6.61
712Henry PoploskieClarkston6.88
811Louis D’SouzaTroy8.32
910Alex McArthurOxford10.28
1010Jaxson NowikClarkston10.71
1111Andrew FlorosClarkston10.85
1211Ferdinand ViereckRochester Adams13.29
1310James CusickOxford15.63
1410Blake PeardonLake Orion17.45
1512Nathan D’SouzaRochester Adams18.12
1610Akshat AroraTroy18.47
1710Kian SchneeweisTroy19.75
189Harper WesleyUtica20.14
1910Cayden DeGrendelClarkston20.54
2010Max MyrandOxford21.08
2112Xavier ClarkOxford21.23
2210Cole MaxwellRochester Adams21.79
2312Logan DavisUtica21.79
2412Teddy ShiTroy22.96
2511Jacob EsserTroy Athens27.13
2612Kyle DiMalantaOxford27.68
2710Collin McLaughlinRochester28.63
2810Luke MorehouseUtica29.38
2911Danny BoydUtica29.61
3012Horacio LopezLake Orion30.04

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Oxford5195+95+
2Troy8486
3Utica8871
4Rochester9531
5Clarkston10612

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Lucy CookRochester1.03
210Mallory BigelowOxford2.51
311Alexandra BrighamClarkston2.77
410Taylor BrodeurOxford4.35
512Chloe NixonRochester6.58
611Braydee EllingOxford6.66
711Addison JohnsonUtica7.50
812Amanda SoldanRochester Adams7.59
912Lauren WrozaRochester9.39
1012Charlotte GullionTroy11.08
119Addison HerrBloomfield Hills11.44
129Siene MuraszewskiUtica11.96
1312Elaina RondeauTroy12.89
149Audrey HamiltonTroy13.74
1512Meagan VerellenUtica17.45
1610Stella PhillipsRochester Adams17.61
179Camryn QuidortOxford18.55
1810Madie MillerTroy19.62
1912Rebekah WilsonClarkston21.45
2010Addison VerlindenLake Orion22.31
2111Aubrey MeryOxford22.33
229Sydney FischerClarkston22.77
2312Ava RawleyUtica24.77
2410Jamie PattersonOxford25.76
2512Maisie KonwinskiTroy26.82
2612Cate CotterClarkston28.59
2711Sarah BarnettRoyal Oak28.60
2812Abby FifieldUtica29.79
2911Natalie BalesOxford31.14
309Nadia FedorinchikLake Orion31.48

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