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2022 Regional Projections – Goodells Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1St. Clair349495+
2Yale44695+
3Macomb Lutheran North10585
4Armada11915

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Camden KhonArmada1.66
212Carter BoullardSt. Clair1.69
311Blake FergusonYale3.17
412David HarrisSt. Clair3.74
511Giovanni Pardo-KeeganYale6.02
611Dylan DistelrathSt. Clair6.29
711Acer CampbellYale7.11
812Joe EdgemonSt. Clair9.35
911Elliot WhitneyImlay City9.91
1012Riley AndrewsArmada10.47
1111Brewer SnayMacomb Lutheran North11.36
1212Peter VitaleSt. Clair13.75
1310Ted RutkofskeYale14.63
1410Korbyn ThorntonSt. Clair16.17
1510Kale KovachYale16.41
1611Jamison SnayMacomb Lutheran North16.77
1711Anthony GoatleyMadison Heights Lamphere16.80
1812Lance KowalskiMarysville16.83
1911Vinny SchweihoferSt. Clair18.77
2010Jack NicolYale21.45
2110Wyatt MurtosYale22.12
2211Alex RobertsonMarine City22.89
2311Trent GlassMarysville23.61
249Xaiver RomanMacomb Lutheran North25.31
259Ty TaylorCroswell-Lexington25.68
2611Ryan DelarosaMacomb Lutheran North25.81
2710Jack McMahonMacomb Lutheran North26.00
2811Luke NawrockiArmada27.62
2911Jayden RobertsonMarine City28.84
3010Pete LutzMadison Heights Lamphere29.50

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Croswell-Lexington655795+
2St. Clair654395+
3Warren Regina9083
4Armada10317

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Eva ThompsonCroswell-Lexington1.42
210Brooklyn KhonArmada1.98
311Morgan NewtonCroswell-Lexington2.73
412Ava PergitoneSt. Clair4.81
510Elizabeth AmbroggioWarren Regina5.42
611Brianna AlbersRichmond6.03
711Kennedy RoskoppWarren Regina6.59
812Anne MayMacomb Lutheran North8.55
910Lillian RutallieMarysville9.83
1010Allie KomarowskiSt. Clair9.94
1112Olivia EbelMacomb Lutheran North12.33
1211Abagayle BarkleyCroswell-Lexington13.23
1311Lilyana BrattSt. Clair13.39
1412Katelynn JaloskySt. Clair14.53
1511Casidhe FlesherMarine City16.80
1612Karlie SchlaudNorth Branch17.15
1711Darrah MackenzieArmada17.16
1810Natalie LentineWarren Regina17.97
1911Gabby FernandezWarren Regina19.81
2011Ava BaltierraArmada21.81
2110Brynn HurleyCroswell-Lexington21.86
2211Lauren KoskiMacomb Lutheran North22.06
2312Jenna DenverImlay City23.01
249Aubrey SargentSt. Clair25.99
2511Ella DeshonMarysville26.25
2612Aubrey ConnellyCroswell-Lexington26.51
2710Charlotte O’BrienImlay City27.58
2812Ava ZobayArmada29.08
2910Rowan ConleyNorth Branch30.47
309Paulina ChapmanRichmond30.61

SUMMER PREVIEW

JACOB TANNER’S EXTENSIVE BOYS DEEP DIVE

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Romeo698995+
2Port Huron Northern841195+
3Grosse Pointe South13540
4Fraser13831
5Macomb Dakota14018
6Rochester Hills Stoney Creek1505
7Anchor Bay1556

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Thomas WestphalAnchor Bay1.13
211Vincent GuaresimoRomeo2.95
311Connor ClorRomeo3.27
412Logan DetweilerGrosse Pointe South3.81
512Justin RooseFraser6.01
612Glen DavisPort Huron Northern6.18
712Brendan DowneyGrosse Pointe South7.06
811Tyler DonovanFraser9.44
912Jack MathersMacomb Dakota9.66
1011Dylan PenberthyL’Anse Creuse North10.26
1111Luke VanderHeuvelPort Huron Northern10.81
1212Jacob MaurerUtica Eisenhower14.57
1312Michael PaolettiPort Huron Northern15.25
1411Zachary RubiczAnchor Bay15.40
159Lance EdghillFraser16.51
1611Carter FoxMacomb Dakota16.93
1711Tyler BrothersUtica Eisenhower17.32
1812Zachary LarsonRochester Hills Stoney Creek17.38
1911Brandon PenberthyL’Anse Creuse North18.25
2012Derrian KumferRomeo18.58
2111Luke MaherPort Huron Northern19.93
2211Michael MagnoliRomeo23.43
2311Jack DeWaeleChippewa Valley23.49
2411Bryce GoodsellRomeo24.55
2512Evan LordRochester Hills Stoney Creek25.49
2612Eli HullingerRomeo26.16
2710Caleb KoselGrosse Pointe North27.79
2811Simon DavisMacomb Dakota28.81
2911David RochonGrosse Pointe North29.79
3011Jet MillerGrosse Pointe South30.08

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Romeo3895+95+
2Rochester Hills Stoney Creek5895+
3Macomb Dakota9295+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota1.07
212Madison ClorRomeo1.93
39Emmerson ClorRomeo3.15
410Violet HrabovskyRomeo4.60
512Lily SolekRochester Hills Stoney Creek4.77
610Grace GrupidoFraser7.21
710Lillian DeskinsGrosse Pointe North8.33
89Natalia GuaresimoRomeo9.60
912Katie KnishRochester Hills Stoney Creek9.68
1012Ava LaMilzaMacomb Dakota10.23
1112Makenna MusserRochester Hills Stoney Creek13.09
1212Therese GeorgiaPort Huron Northern13.75
1310Savannah SpanglerGrosse Pointe South13.92
1412Isabella BeckUtica Eisenhower13.95
1512AnnDee GeddesL’Anse Creuse North14.38
1611Sydney GergicsRochester Hills Stoney Creek14.97
179Leah CorbyRochester Hills Stoney Creek16.84
1811Olivia LombardoRochester Hills Stoney Creek19.35
1912Lindsay HarveyMacomb Dakota21.11
2010Olivia PurdyRomeo21.34
2111Gracie YoungbloodRomeo21.74
2210Shelby StabileL’Anse Creuse21.87
2310Charlotte LongUtica Eisenhower22.07
249Lidia ClancyMacomb Dakota23.04
2511Remi FlanzFraser24.27
2611Alyssa KoRochester Hills Stoney Creek25.12
2711Lauren ThomasAnchor Bay26.00
2811Lucie LeonhardGrosse Pointe North26.06
2912Dylan PasiaPort Huron Northern29.65
3010Luciana RodriguezFraser31.46

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