2022 Regional Projections – Goodells Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Clair	34	94	95+
2	Yale	44	6	95+
3	Macomb Lutheran North	105		85
4	Armada	119		15

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Camden Khon	Armada	1.66
2	12	Carter Boullard	St. Clair	1.69
3	11	Blake Ferguson	Yale	3.17
4	12	David Harris	St. Clair	3.74
5	11	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	6.02
6	11	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	6.29
7	11	Acer Campbell	Yale	7.11
8	12	Joe Edgemon	St. Clair	9.35
9	11	Elliot Whitney	Imlay City	9.91
10	12	Riley Andrews	Armada	10.47
11	11	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	11.36
12	12	Peter Vitale	St. Clair	13.75
13	10	Ted Rutkofske	Yale	14.63
14	10	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	16.17
15	10	Kale Kovach	Yale	16.41
16	11	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	16.77
17	11	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere	16.80
18	12	Lance Kowalski	Marysville	16.83
19	11	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair	18.77
20	10	Jack Nicol	Yale	21.45
21	10	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	22.12
22	11	Alex Robertson	Marine City	22.89
23	11	Trent Glass	Marysville	23.61
24	9	Xaiver Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	25.31
25	9	Ty Taylor	Croswell-Lexington	25.68
26	11	Ryan Delarosa	Macomb Lutheran North	25.81
27	10	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	26.00
28	11	Luke Nawrocki	Armada	27.62
29	11	Jayden Robertson	Marine City	28.84
30	10	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	29.50

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Croswell-Lexington	65	57	95+
2	St. Clair	65	43	95+
3	Warren Regina	90		83
4	Armada	103		17

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.42
2	10	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	1.98
3	11	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	2.73
4	12	Ava Pergitone	St. Clair	4.81
5	10	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	5.42
6	11	Brianna Albers	Richmond	6.03
7	11	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina	6.59
8	12	Anne May	Macomb Lutheran North	8.55
9	10	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	9.83
10	10	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	9.94
11	12	Olivia Ebel	Macomb Lutheran North	12.33
12	11	Abagayle Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	13.23
13	11	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair	13.39
14	12	Katelynn Jalosky	St. Clair	14.53
15	11	Casidhe Flesher	Marine City	16.80
16	12	Karlie Schlaud	North Branch	17.15
17	11	Darrah Mackenzie	Armada	17.16
18	10	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	17.97
19	11	Gabby Fernandez	Warren Regina	19.81
20	11	Ava Baltierra	Armada	21.81
21	10	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	21.86
22	11	Lauren Koski	Macomb Lutheran North	22.06
23	12	Jenna Denver	Imlay City	23.01
24	9	Aubrey Sargent	St. Clair	25.99
25	11	Ella Deshon	Marysville	26.25
26	12	Aubrey Connelly	Croswell-Lexington	26.51
27	10	Charlotte O’Brien	Imlay City	27.58
28	12	Ava Zobay	Armada	29.08
29	10	Rowan Conley	North Branch	30.47
30	9	Paulina Chapman	Richmond	30.61

SUMMER PREVIEW

JACOB TANNER’S EXTENSIVE BOYS DEEP DIVE

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	69	89	95+
2	Port Huron Northern	84	11	95+
3	Grosse Pointe South	135		40
4	Fraser	138		31
5	Macomb Dakota	140		18
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	150		5
7	Anchor Bay	155		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	1.13
2	11	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	2.95
3	11	Connor Clor	Romeo	3.27
4	12	Logan Detweiler	Grosse Pointe South	3.81
5	12	Justin Roose	Fraser	6.01
6	12	Glen Davis	Port Huron Northern	6.18
7	12	Brendan Downey	Grosse Pointe South	7.06
8	11	Tyler Donovan	Fraser	9.44
9	12	Jack Mathers	Macomb Dakota	9.66
10	11	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	10.26
11	11	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern	10.81
12	12	Jacob Maurer	Utica Eisenhower	14.57
13	12	Michael Paoletti	Port Huron Northern	15.25
14	11	Zachary Rubicz	Anchor Bay	15.40
15	9	Lance Edghill	Fraser	16.51
16	11	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	16.93
17	11	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	17.32
18	12	Zachary Larson	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.38
19	11	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	18.25
20	12	Derrian Kumfer	Romeo	18.58
21	11	Luke Maher	Port Huron Northern	19.93
22	11	Michael Magnoli	Romeo	23.43
23	11	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	23.49
24	11	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	24.55
25	12	Evan Lord	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	25.49
26	12	Eli Hullinger	Romeo	26.16
27	10	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	27.79
28	11	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	28.81
29	11	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North	29.79
30	11	Jet Miller	Grosse Pointe South	30.08

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	38	95+	95+
2	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	58		95+
3	Macomb Dakota	92		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	1.07
2	12	Madison Clor	Romeo	1.93
3	9	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	3.15
4	10	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	4.60
5	12	Lily Solek	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.77
6	10	Grace Grupido	Fraser	7.21
7	10	Lillian Deskins	Grosse Pointe North	8.33
8	9	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	9.60
9	12	Katie Knish	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	9.68
10	12	Ava LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	10.23
11	12	Makenna Musser	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	13.09
12	12	Therese Georgia	Port Huron Northern	13.75
13	10	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	13.92
14	12	Isabella Beck	Utica Eisenhower	13.95
15	12	AnnDee Geddes	L’Anse Creuse North	14.38
16	11	Sydney Gergics	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	14.97
17	9	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	16.84
18	11	Olivia Lombardo	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	19.35
19	12	Lindsay Harvey	Macomb Dakota	21.11
20	10	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	21.34
21	11	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo	21.74
22	10	Shelby Stabile	L’Anse Creuse	21.87
23	10	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	22.07
24	9	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	23.04
25	11	Remi Flanz	Fraser	24.27
26	11	Alyssa Ko	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	25.12
27	11	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay	26.00
28	11	Lucie Leonhard	Grosse Pointe North	26.06
29	12	Dylan Pasia	Port Huron Northern	29.65
30	10	Luciana Rodriguez	Fraser	31.46