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2022 Regional Projections – Bangor Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Saugatuck829395+
2Buchanan104695+
3Kalamazoo Christian11784
4Bridgman1417
5Bloomingdale1438

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112William WinterParchment2.38
211Jaden BarnesBloomingdale2.56
312Logan WeisCentreville2.98
411Boden GenoveseColoma3.00
512Ethan GlickConstantine5.20
612John SandersonBridgman7.27
710Andrew MabryBridgman7.50
811Russell Vande PoelSaugatuck9.96
912Joe StocchieroBloomingdale11.01
1012Isaac BogardKalamazoo Christian11.35
1112Charlie StormerSaugatuck11.49
1212Luke GorgasSaugatuck12.30
1310Dante PillotSchoolcraft14.22
149Jack SherwoodBuchanan14.88
1511Britain PhilipBuchanan16.41
169Jacob KuntzBuchanan17.76
1712Kam RinkerKalamazoo Christian18.89
1812Nick MitchellKalamazoo Christian19.81
199Liam McBethBuchanan20.94
209Chayse CiborskiBloomingdale21.19
2110Daniel MandujanoWatervliet21.28
2210Ethan MillerCentreville24.13
2310Carter StevensGalesburg-Augusta24.64
249Sammy GamboaSaugatuck24.78
2510Eddy GranadosColoma24.81
269Brennan NorSaugatuck27.03
2710Elliot ColeParchment28.10
2810James VanderDussenKalamazoo Christian30.30
2911Mason GardeaFennville30.93
3011Loch RigozziSaugatuck31.44

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Kalamazoo Christian5295+95+
2Schoolcraft8595+
3Buchanan12368
4Lawton13615
5Bridgman13617

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Kendra KosterLawton1.02
210Alaina KloosterKalamazoo Christian2.69
312Sofia OertelLawton2.97
412Annika SytsmaKalamazoo Christian4.30
512Caley KerwinSchoolcraft6.04
612Lydia KruisComstock6.26
710Madeline YoungBuchanan6.86
811Angel MillerParchment6.88
910Ariana PillotSchoolcraft9.90
1010Clara FastBridgman10.03
1112Aubrey HerderKalamazoo Christian10.87
1211Nidia MartinezFennville12.83
1312Bethany BrownParchment15.22
1412Rachel AllabaughKalamazoo Christian15.27
1512Autumn MajorCentreville15.89
1611Morgan LowellWatervliet16.23
179Adyson BakerBuchanan16.54
1812Hope ZichtermanKalamazoo Christian19.35
1911Jenna VanDussenSchoolcraft20.53
2010Jaelynn LittleBangor22.10
2111Merissa MendozaFennville22.82
229Ellie ReedCentreville23.26
2311Natalie GlerumSchoolcraft24.56
2410Kimberly RomeroWatervliet26.08
2512Summer FastBridgman26.38
2612Camryn BrownColoma26.92
2711Alyssa VanDussenSchoolcraft27.45
289Makynna WilliamsBuchanan27.83
2910Christina MendozaFennville29.54
309Kandin ShulerBridgman31.15

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Otsego2995+95+
2Berrien Springs11379
3Paw Paw12063
4St. Joseph12534
5Plainwell13518
6Vicksburg1436

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Colin WesseldykOtsego1.21
210Caleb WesseldykOtsego3.20
312Luke MorrisonBerrien Springs3.74
412Will VanderborPaw Paw5.14
511Aiden KrugerNiles5.46
612Luke AldrichOtsego6.31
79Kenny ShefferOtsego9.22
812Austin WillifordPaw Paw9.29
910Skye SmithVicksburg10.70
1012Pierce BentleyOtsego10.89
1110Sulley ZietlowThree Rivers11.35
1210Noah JarvisBerrien Springs13.22
1311Dane BaileyEdwardsburg15.13
1412Will FiesbeckSt. Joseph16.01
1512Thai NguyenPlainwell16.50
1612Haroon OmarColdwater16.52
1712Tucker RadgensVicksburg17.56
1811Shay WhiteSt. Joseph17.73
1912Sam MarkleBerrien Springs17.94
2010Aidan GoodwinOtsego18.19
2111Isaac VeenPlainwell20.43
2210Owen SaylorDowagiac Union21.55
2311Matthew SchreinerOtsego22.25
2410Nolan ParkSturgis25.66
2510Henry CoxPlainwell26.60
2610Eli JohansenSt. Joseph27.37
2712Johnathan PantThree Rivers28.67
2811Brayden OdellVicksburg29.05
2911Aden WebberPaw Paw29.97
3011Alex MoyerSt. Joseph31.32

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Otsego2895+95+
2St. Joseph4595+
3Vicksburg12751
4Stevensville Lakeshore13431
5Plainwell13618

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Megan GermainOtsego1.29
210Elena FigueroaSt. Joseph2.88
39Emma HoffmanOtsego3.31
411Gail VaikutisSt. Joseph4.11
511Logan BrazeeOtsego4.45
610Taylor MitchellOtsego5.21
712Olivia IppelSt. Joseph8.09
811Emma SteeleVicksburg8.11
910Madison JohnsonPaw Paw10.03
109Berkley HoltzSturgis10.32
1111Cecilia RuchtiSt. Joseph11.59
129Josie LongcorePlainwell12.33
1312Grace PettitPlainwell13.42
149Rebekah StachuraOtsego14.70
1510Preslee PerkinsStevensville Lakeshore17.33
1611Anezka PradnaThree Rivers18.02
1711Jennifer HernandezThree Rivers18.32
1811Jade MurdochSt. Joseph19.99
1912Amanda LaugheryVicksburg20.24
2010Kaylee SpragueStevensville Lakeshore20.31
2112Maeline DehanneOtsego20.42
2212Claire RitcheyEdwardsburg21.14
2312Molly YoungVicksburg23.64
249Sydney BirSturgis25.16
259Hannah WierSt. Joseph26.47
2610Taylor KlimpOtsego26.91
2710Lainey YearlingColdwater27.07
289Tessa HattSturgis31.63
2912Sabrina MillsAllegan33.03
3010Annika DeJongStevensville Lakeshore33.17

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