2022 Regional Projections – Bangor Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saugatuck	82	93	95+
2	Buchanan	104	6	95+
3	Kalamazoo Christian	117		84
4	Bridgman	141		7
5	Bloomingdale	143		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	William Winter	Parchment	2.38
2	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.56
3	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	2.98
4	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	3.00
5	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	5.20
6	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	7.27
7	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.50
8	11	Russell Vande Poel	Saugatuck	9.96
9	12	Joe Stocchiero	Bloomingdale	11.01
10	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	11.35
11	12	Charlie Stormer	Saugatuck	11.49
12	12	Luke Gorgas	Saugatuck	12.30
13	10	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	14.22
14	9	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	14.88
15	11	Britain Philip	Buchanan	16.41
16	9	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	17.76
17	12	Kam Rinker	Kalamazoo Christian	18.89
18	12	Nick Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	19.81
19	9	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	20.94
20	9	Chayse Ciborski	Bloomingdale	21.19
21	10	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	21.28
22	10	Ethan Miller	Centreville	24.13
23	10	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	24.64
24	9	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	24.78
25	10	Eddy Granados	Coloma	24.81
26	9	Brennan Nor	Saugatuck	27.03
27	10	Elliot Cole	Parchment	28.10
28	10	James VanderDussen	Kalamazoo Christian	30.30
29	11	Mason Gardea	Fennville	30.93
30	11	Loch Rigozzi	Saugatuck	31.44

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kalamazoo Christian	52	95+	95+
2	Schoolcraft	85		95+
3	Buchanan	123		68
4	Lawton	136		15
5	Bridgman	136		17

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	1.02
2	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	2.69
3	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	2.97
4	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	4.30
5	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	6.04
6	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	6.26
7	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.86
8	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	6.88
9	10	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.90
10	10	Clara Fast	Bridgman	10.03
11	12	Aubrey Herder	Kalamazoo Christian	10.87
12	11	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	12.83
13	12	Bethany Brown	Parchment	15.22
14	12	Rachel Allabaugh	Kalamazoo Christian	15.27
15	12	Autumn Major	Centreville	15.89
16	11	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	16.23
17	9	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	16.54
18	12	Hope Zichterman	Kalamazoo Christian	19.35
19	11	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	20.53
20	10	Jaelynn Little	Bangor	22.10
21	11	Merissa Mendoza	Fennville	22.82
22	9	Ellie Reed	Centreville	23.26
23	11	Natalie Glerum	Schoolcraft	24.56
24	10	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	26.08
25	12	Summer Fast	Bridgman	26.38
26	12	Camryn Brown	Coloma	26.92
27	11	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	27.45
28	9	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	27.83
29	10	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	29.54
30	9	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	31.15

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	29	95+	95+
2	Berrien Springs	113		79
3	Paw Paw	120		63
4	St. Joseph	125		34
5	Plainwell	135		18
6	Vicksburg	143		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Wesseldyk	Otsego	1.21
2	10	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	3.20
3	12	Luke Morrison	Berrien Springs	3.74
4	12	Will Vanderbor	Paw Paw	5.14
5	11	Aiden Kruger	Niles	5.46
6	12	Luke Aldrich	Otsego	6.31
7	9	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	9.22
8	12	Austin Williford	Paw Paw	9.29
9	10	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	10.70
10	12	Pierce Bentley	Otsego	10.89
11	10	Sulley Zietlow	Three Rivers	11.35
12	10	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	13.22
13	11	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	15.13
14	12	Will Fiesbeck	St. Joseph	16.01
15	12	Thai Nguyen	Plainwell	16.50
16	12	Haroon Omar	Coldwater	16.52
17	12	Tucker Radgens	Vicksburg	17.56
18	11	Shay White	St. Joseph	17.73
19	12	Sam Markle	Berrien Springs	17.94
20	10	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	18.19
21	11	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	20.43
22	10	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	21.55
23	11	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	22.25
24	10	Nolan Park	Sturgis	25.66
25	10	Henry Cox	Plainwell	26.60
26	10	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	27.37
27	12	Johnathan Pant	Three Rivers	28.67
28	11	Brayden Odell	Vicksburg	29.05
29	11	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	29.97
30	11	Alex Moyer	St. Joseph	31.32

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	28	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	45		95+
3	Vicksburg	127		51
4	Stevensville Lakeshore	134		31
5	Plainwell	136		18

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Megan Germain	Otsego	1.29
2	10	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	2.88
3	9	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.31
4	11	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	4.11
5	11	Logan Brazee	Otsego	4.45
6	10	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	5.21
7	12	Olivia Ippel	St. Joseph	8.09
8	11	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.11
9	10	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	10.03
10	9	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	10.32
11	11	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	11.59
12	9	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	12.33
13	12	Grace Pettit	Plainwell	13.42
14	9	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	14.70
15	10	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.33
16	11	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	18.02
17	11	Jennifer Hernandez	Three Rivers	18.32
18	11	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	19.99
19	12	Amanda Laughery	Vicksburg	20.24
20	10	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.31
21	12	Maeline Dehanne	Otsego	20.42
22	12	Claire Ritchey	Edwardsburg	21.14
23	12	Molly Young	Vicksburg	23.64
24	9	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	25.16
25	9	Hannah Wier	St. Joseph	26.47
26	10	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	26.91
27	10	Lainey Yearling	Coldwater	27.07
28	9	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	31.63
29	12	Sabrina Mills	Allegan	33.03
30	10	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	33.17