2022 Regional Projections – Allendale Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	The Potter’s House	16	95+	95+
2	Three Oaks River Valley	51		95+
3	Muskegon Catholic Central	104		73
4	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	110		27

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.00
2	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	2.38
3	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	2.62
4	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	4.43
5	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	6.01
6	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	6.40
7	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	6.86
8	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	8.28
9	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	8.59
10	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	10.83
11	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	12.12
12	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	13.50
13	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.94
14	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	14.51
15	10	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	14.83
16	11	Owen Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	15.26
17	11	Matthew Lage	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	17.94
18	11	Elliot Bourne	New Buffalo	18.85
19	10	Caleb Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	19.14
20	11	Owen Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	22.90
21	11	Braiden Brooks	Three Oaks River Valley	23.41
22	11	Jack Walkenhorst	Muskegon Catholic Central	23.58
23	9	Haylen Buell	Martin	23.61
24	10	Sean Driscoll	Three Oaks River Valley	24.03
25	9	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House	24.27
26	12	Edward Lopez	Eau Claire	26.12
27	12	Joshua Schmitz	Libertas Christian	28.40
28	10	Zach Vonk	Holland Calvary Christian	29.04
29	10	Kalen Loebach	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	29.19
30	12	Evan Spriggs	New Buffalo	29.34

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	54	37	95+
2	Libertas Christian	54	30	95+
3	The Potter’s House	55	33	95+
4	Holland Calvary Christian	72		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	1.57
2	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	2.11
3	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	3.19
4	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	3.55
5	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	5.52
6	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	6.78
7	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	8.03
8	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	8.04
9	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	9.21
10	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	10.00
11	10	Mary Riley	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	10.81
12	12	Kassidy Kleinheksel	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.58
13	12	Vanessa Peltoniemi	Holton	13.70
14	10	Hannah Hysell	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.54
15	9	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	15.83
16	12	Riley Sinkler	Lawrence	16.04
17	10	Aubrey Goyings	Holton	18.12
18	9	Ana VanZanten	Holland Calvary Christian	18.61
19	12	Emily Folkert	Libertas Christian	19.41
20	12	Madeline Madsen	Lawrence	19.60
21	9	Marisa Toonstra	The Potter’s House	22.23
22	11	Abby Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	24.49
23	11	Lydia VerBeek	The Potter’s House	24.83
24	9	Aribel Mills	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	25.90
25	10	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	26.16
26	11	Isabelle Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.19
27	12	Cristina Avello	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.33
28	11	Sydney Amondson	The Potter’s House	28.67
29	9	Kylie Bobo	The Potter’s House	28.73
30	10	Zoie Wood	Gobles	28.74

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saranac	63	95+	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	103		94
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	113		83
4	North Muskegon	130		23

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	1.07
2	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	2.04
3	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.07
4	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	4.76
5	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.78
6	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	7.07
7	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	7.44
8	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	7.47
9	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	8.04
10	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	13.26
11	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	14.01
12	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	14.13
13	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	16.33
14	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	17.03
15	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.69
16	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	18.58
17	9	Luke Tibbe	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.64
18	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	19.63
19	11	Matthew Anton	Ravenna	20.40
20	12	Roger Hernandez	Holland Black River	20.61
21	12	Jonathan Clausing	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.62
22	11	Graeson Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.75
23	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	22.29
24	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.86
25	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.00
26	11	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	23.62
27	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.97
28	11	Evan Atkinson-Miller	North Muskegon	26.96
29	11	Clay Johnson	Montague	30.51
30	10	Charles Brooks	Grand Rapids West Catholic	31.26

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	71	89	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	85	10	95+
3	Kent City	91		95+
4	Grand Rapids West Catholic	115		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.09
2	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.37
3	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	3.05
4	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.83
5	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	4.94
6	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.79
7	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.10
8	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.24
9	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.74
10	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	10.53
11	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	11.58
12	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	12.48
13	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	13.09
14	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	13.10
15	11	Cammie Erickson	Montague	15.24
16	11	Isabella Max	Kent City	16.42
17	9	Alia Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	18.17
18	12	Lily LaBurn	Holland Black River	18.38
19	12	Brianna Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.57
20	12	Anna Tubbergen	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.92
21	11	Eleanor Kingshott	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	21.09
22	10	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	23.46
23	11	Lindsay Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.55
24	12	Nathalie Strockis	Grand Rapids West Catholic	24.87
25	9	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	26.94
26	11	Lauren Jousma	Grandville Calvin Christian	27.46
27	9	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.32
28	10	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	30.43
29	12	Joelle White	Delton-Kellogg	30.59
30	9	Lydia Howard	Kent City	30.63

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	95+	95+
2	Allendale	97		95+
3	Holland Christian	109		75
4	Hamilton	123		19
5	Spring Lake	129		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	1.11
2	11	Noah Lambers	Holland	3.10
3	12	Max VanHuis	Hamilton	3.82
4	10	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	4.22
5	12	Adrian Castillo	Holland	7.27
6	11	Joe Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	8.49
7	12	Gavin Wiersma	Zeeland East	9.01
8	12	Reuben Wiering	Grand Rapids Christian	9.57
9	11	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	11.20
10	10	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	11.28
11	10	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	13.23
12	10	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	13.41
13	10	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.49
14	11	Ian Richthammer	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.97
15	9	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	14.18
16	11	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	14.19
17	10	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	15.00
18	12	Ethan Grevengoed	Spring Lake	16.77
19	9	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	17.22
20	10	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	18.09
21	11	Lucas Ruffing	Spring Lake	21.73
22	10	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	22.47
23	10	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	24.17
24	12	Nick Riemersma	Zeeland East	25.53
25	10	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	26.08
26	12	Nate Oosterhouse	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.06
27	11	Josh Langeland	Hamilton	28.29
28	10	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	29.13
29	10	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	30.38
30	11	Levi Glynn	Fruitport	30.62

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	31	95+	95+
2	Spring Lake	64		95+
3	Zeeland East	71		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.12
2	11	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	1.88
3	9	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.39
4	11	Naomi Nelson	Grand Rapids Christian	4.72
5	12	Lily Parker	Spring Lake	5.09
6	9	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	6.24
7	11	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.63
8	11	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	7.96
9	12	Alisa Mason	Holland	8.32
10	10	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	8.78
11	9	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	11.31
12	11	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	14.40
13	9	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	15.23
14	10	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	15.44
15	12	Ava Buhlman	Allendale	16.76
16	12	Sarah Timmer	Grand Rapids Christian	18.01
17	10	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.17
18	9	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	18.73
19	12	Anna Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	19.88
20	11	Addie Grill	Zeeland East	21.25
21	10	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	21.73
22	9	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	21.80
23	9	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	24.57
24	12	Trina Farris	Hamilton	25.07
25	12	Hayley Heinrich	Zeeland East	25.55
26	9	Charlene Kuras	Zeeland East	26.77
27	12	Jessie Postma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.98
28	11	Katie Riemersma	Spring Lake	28.10
29	12	Alyssa Gerritsma	Holland Christian	28.67
30	10	Sophie Bukrey	Coopersville	29.42

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Haven	63	88	95+
2	Zeeland West	76	7	95+
3	Jenison	88	5	85
4	Rockford	102		15

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.17
2	12	Caleb Branch	Muskegon Mona Shores	2.58
3	12	Colin Graham	Rockford	3.55
4	12	Jaben Bakker	Hudsonville	4.11
5	12	Chase Holwerda	Zeeland West	6.73
6	12	Espen Wood	Cedar Springs	7.63
7	10	Seth Conner	Jenison	10.12
8	10	Mason Lucas	Jenison	10.41
9	10	Ben Held	Grand Haven	10.56
10	12	Caleb Smith	Zeeland West	11.14
11	12	Logan Vining	Grand Haven	11.50
12	11	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	12.11
13	10	Carter Livermore	Grandville	12.57
14	12	Brendan Wangler	Jenison	13.80
15	12	Charles Lewis	Rockford	14.87
16	12	Nathan Golding	Zeeland West	14.97
17	10	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	16.01
18	11	Nate Fahey	Rockford	16.89
19	12	Austin O’brien	Grand Rapids Kenowa hills	19.05
20	9	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	20.91
21	11	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	22.09
22	9	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	24.00
23	9	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	24.71
24	12	Connor Wooley	Holland West Ottawa	25.88
25	9	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	27.62
26	9	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	28.26
27	10	Noah Schuette	Rockford	28.48
28	11	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	28.52
29	12	Will Marth	Jenison	29.08
30	11	Carson Hauch	Zeeland West	29.10

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	36	95+	95+
2	Jenison	88		95+
3	Grand Haven	93		90
4	Rockford	114		12

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.19
2	12	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	1.84
3	12	Allison Arnsman	Grandville	2.97
4	12	Maya Guikema	Jenison	4.84
5	10	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	5.01
6	10	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	5.47
7	12	Megan Postma	Holland West Ottawa	7.69
8	9	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	8.10
9	12	Bella Hoffer	Zeeland West	11.44
10	9	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	11.89
11	10	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	12.06
12	12	Maggie Otto	Jenison	12.43
13	10	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	13.22
14	9	Ellery Horness	Muskegon Mona Shores	13.98
15	11	Madelyn Vande Bunte	Jenison	14.47
16	10	Addison Smith	Grand Haven	16.23
17	12	Larissa McGrath	Cedar Springs	17.14
18	9	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	19.87
19	12	Robyn Hunt	Muskegon Mona Shores	21.35
20	12	Cecilia Conrad	Muskegon Mona Shores	22.87
21	9	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	24.11
22	10	Emma Smith	Rockford	24.36
23	12	Elise Conkel	Hudsonville	24.92
24	10	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	26.62
25	10	Abbey Scholma	Hudsonville	27.23
26	11	Payton Hosley	Grand Haven	28.25
27	10	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	28.75
28	11	Annalise Elliott	Cedar Springs	29.57
29	10	Devin Fisher	Rockford	29.61
30	10	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	31.20