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2022 Regional Projections – Allendale Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1The Potter’s House1695+95+
2Three Oaks River Valley5195+
3Muskegon Catholic Central10473
4St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic11027

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Lezawe OsterinkThe Potter’s House1.00
212Logan SwineyThe Potter’s House2.38
311Jackson RodriguezThe Potter’s House2.62
411Noah FintonThe Potter’s House4.43
511Ezra HagedornThe Potter’s House6.01
610Tyler LaansmaTri-Unity Christian6.40
79Landon RogersThree Oaks River Valley6.86
89Charlie GibsonThree Oaks River Valley8.28
910Adam SlavensThree Oaks River Valley8.59
109Edward MugishaThe Potter’s House10.83
1111Owen McLoughlinSt. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic12.12
1211Austin YorkThree Oaks River Valley13.50
1311Jacob LyonnaisMuskegon Catholic Central13.94
1412Gavin HancoxGobles14.51
1510Ryan BlankenshipEau Claire14.83
1611Owen LyonnaisMuskegon Catholic Central15.26
1711Matthew LageSt. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic17.94
1811Elliot BourneNew Buffalo18.85
1910Caleb OudbierTri-Unity Christian19.14
2011Owen SlavensThree Oaks River Valley22.90
2111Braiden BrooksThree Oaks River Valley23.41
2211Jack WalkenhorstMuskegon Catholic Central23.58
239Haylen BuellMartin23.61
2410Sean DriscollThree Oaks River Valley24.03
259Isaac Struck-VanderHaakThe Potter’s House24.27
2612Edward LopezEau Claire26.12
2712Joshua SchmitzLibertas Christian28.40
2810Zach VonkHolland Calvary Christian29.04
2910Kalen LoebachSt. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic29.19
3012Evan SpriggsNew Buffalo29.34

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic543795+
2Libertas Christian543095+
3The Potter’s House553395+
4Holland Calvary Christian726

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Allison GlendeningSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic1.57
210Hannah GeaneyThe Potter’s House2.11
39Sadie SchoutLibertas Christian3.19
411Ivy AndreasThe Potter’s House3.55
512Aliz PusztaiLibertas Christian5.52
610Brielle VoorheesTri-Unity Christian6.78
79Madison CooleyGobles8.03
89Acacia WilliamsHolland Calvary Christian8.04
911Abby KunkleLibertas Christian9.21
1012Cally CamaraMuskegon Catholic Central10.00
1110Mary RileySt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic10.81
1212Kassidy KleinhekselMuskegon Catholic Central13.58
1312Vanessa PeltoniemiHolton13.70
1410Hannah HysellSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic14.54
159Alison RotmanHolland Calvary Christian15.83
1612Riley SinklerLawrence16.04
1710Aubrey GoyingsHolton18.12
189Ana VanZantenHolland Calvary Christian18.61
1912Emily FolkertLibertas Christian19.41
2012Madeline MadsenLawrence19.60
219Marisa ToonstraThe Potter’s House22.23
2211Abby SchraubenSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic24.49
2311Lydia VerBeekThe Potter’s House24.83
249Aribel MillsSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic25.90
2510Olivia LaningaHolland Calvary Christian26.16
2611Isabelle SchraubenSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic27.19
2712Cristina AvelloSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic27.33
2811Sydney AmondsonThe Potter’s House28.67
299Kylie BoboThe Potter’s House28.73
3010Zoie WoodGobles28.74

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Saranac6395+95+
2Stanton Central Montcalm10394
3Grand Rapids Covenant Christian11383
4North Muskegon13023

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Samuel MartiniKent City1.07
212Nathan JenkinsGrandville Calvin Christian2.04
39Gage HoffmanStanton Central Montcalm3.07
411Nathan DaySaranac4.76
511Graham CostonStanton Central Montcalm6.78
610Levi KampsGrand Rapids Covenant Christian7.07
712Elijah PowellSaranac7.44
812Owen FairchildMontague7.47
912Andrew HardyStanton Central Montcalm8.04
1010Isaac EdgingtonHolland Black River13.26
1112Jude Meldrum-RoyNorth Muskegon14.01
1211Jaren VogelKent City14.13
1312Jude Meldrum-RoyNorth Muskegon16.33
1412Evan JohnsonSaranac17.03
1510Matthias MorseMuskegon Western Michigan Christian17.69
1612Ben SluiterSaranac18.58
179Luke TibbeGrand Rapids NorthPointe Christian18.64
1811Hunter HelminskiSaranac19.63
1911Matthew AntonRavenna20.40
2012Roger HernandezHolland Black River20.61
2112Jonathan ClausingMuskegon Western Michigan Christian20.62
2211Graeson LawrenceMuskegon Western Michigan Christian20.75
2310Evan OosterhouseSaranac22.29
2410Luke DykstraGrand Rapids Covenant Christian22.86
2511Nick LubbersGrand Rapids Covenant Christian23.00
2611Trevor DornbosGrandville Calvin Christian23.62
2712Mason SchimmelGrand Rapids Covenant Christian23.97
2811Evan Atkinson-MillerNorth Muskegon26.96
2911Clay JohnsonMontague30.51
3010Charles BrooksGrand Rapids West Catholic31.26

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Muskegon Western Michigan Christian718995+
2Stanton Central Montcalm851095+
3Kent City9195+
4Grand Rapids West Catholic1156

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Lila VolkersKent City1.09
210Kyah HoffmanStanton Central Montcalm2.37
312Madeleine HillSaranac3.05
410Grace VanderKooiMuskegon Western Michigan Christian3.83
511Amber KooleGrand Rapids Covenant Christian4.94
69Grace CostonStanton Central Montcalm5.79
710Ashley ChoponisStanton Central Montcalm7.10
812Jonathah BouwmanGrandville Calvin Christian9.24
910Lola BryceGrandville Calvin Christian9.74
1011Lily LeSargeGrand Rapids West Catholic10.53
1111Grace FolkemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian11.58
1212Lainey RothGrand Rapids West Catholic12.48
1312Carolyn BennettNorth Muskegon13.09
1411Gracie HoutmanKent City13.10
1511Cammie EricksonMontague15.24
1611Isabella MaxKent City16.42
179Alia ZuidemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian18.17
1812Lily LaBurnHolland Black River18.38
1912Brianna ZuidemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian19.57
2012Anna TubbergenGrand Rapids NorthPointe Christian19.92
2111Eleanor KingshottMuskegon Western Michigan Christian21.09
2210Alyssa PossehnSaranac23.46
2311Lindsay MinderhoudGrand Rapids Covenant Christian23.55
2412Nathalie StrockisGrand Rapids West Catholic24.87
259Dylan BosmaGrand Rapids NorthPointe Christian26.94
2611Lauren JousmaGrandville Calvin Christian27.46
279Amber KuiperGrand Rapids Covenant Christian29.32
2810Morgan LawrenceMuskegon Western Michigan Christian30.43
2912Joelle WhiteDelton-Kellogg30.59
309Lydia HowardKent City30.63

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Grand Rapids Christian3895+95+
2Allendale9795+
3Holland Christian10975
4Hamilton12319
5Spring Lake1298

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Simon TriezenbergGrand Rapids Christian1.11
211Noah LambersHolland3.10
312Max VanHuisHamilton3.82
410Will EngbersHolland Christian4.22
512Adrian CastilloHolland7.27
611Joe WaalkesGrand Rapids Christian8.49
712Gavin WiersmaZeeland East9.01
812Reuben WieringGrand Rapids Christian9.57
911Dylan ClarkGrand Rapids Christian11.20
1010Parker TiethofAllendale11.28
1110Abatu DykstraHamilton13.23
1210Keegan HoekstraGrand Rapids Christian13.41
1310Jeb HillaryGrand Rapids Catholic Central13.49
1411Ian RichthammerGrand Rapids Catholic Central13.97
159Aden AshworthAllendale14.18
1611Peter KuperusGrand Rapids Christian14.19
1710Aidan BrinksHolland Christian15.00
1812Ethan GrevengoedSpring Lake16.77
199Ronnie SilveiraAllendale17.22
2010Kilian WhalenAllendale18.09
2111Lucas RuffingSpring Lake21.73
2210Vincent PollockFruitport22.47
2310Parker WoodwykSpring Lake24.17
2412Nick RiemersmaZeeland East25.53
2510Aiden KasprzakGrand Rapids Catholic Central26.08
2612Nate OosterhouseHudsonville Unity Christian27.06
2711Josh LangelandHamilton28.29
2810Brayden RynsburgerHolland Christian29.13
2910Nathan SteenHolland Christian30.38
3011Levi GlynnFruitport30.62

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Grand Rapids Christian3195+95+
2Spring Lake6495+
3Zeeland East7195+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Natalie VanOtterenGrand Rapids Christian1.12
211Allison KuzmaZeeland East1.88
39Lilah PoelGrand Rapids Christian4.39
411Naomi NelsonGrand Rapids Christian4.72
512Lily ParkerSpring Lake5.09
69Marie GatesHudsonville Unity Christian6.24
711Emily TomesGrand Rapids Catholic Central7.63
811Payton HoltzGrand Rapids Christian7.96
912Alisa MasonHolland8.32
1010Lexie RuffingSpring Lake8.78
119Meredith CookZeeland East11.31
1211Bea ReeserSpring Lake14.40
139Alexis KotkowiczSpring Lake15.23
1410Emma DrnekZeeland East15.44
1512Ava BuhlmanAllendale16.76
1612Sarah TimmerGrand Rapids Christian18.01
1710Maddie BruxvoortHudsonville Unity Christian18.17
189Ellie ScholmaGrand Rapids Christian18.73
1912Anna TriezenbergGrand Rapids Christian19.88
2011Addie GrillZeeland East21.25
2110Valerie PollockFruitport21.73
229Meghan GuczwaSpring Lake21.80
239Megan KuzmaZeeland East24.57
2412Trina FarrisHamilton25.07
2512Hayley HeinrichZeeland East25.55
269Charlene KurasZeeland East26.77
2712Jessie PostmaHudsonville Unity Christian26.98
2811Katie RiemersmaSpring Lake28.10
2912Alyssa GerritsmaHolland Christian28.67
3010Sophie BukreyCoopersville29.42

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Grand Haven638895+
2Zeeland West76795+
3Jenison88585
4Rockford10215

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Seth NorderGrand Haven1.17
212Caleb BranchMuskegon Mona Shores2.58
312Colin GrahamRockford3.55
412Jaben BakkerHudsonville4.11
512Chase HolwerdaZeeland West6.73
612Espen WoodCedar Springs7.63
710Seth ConnerJenison10.12
810Mason LucasJenison10.41
910Ben HeldGrand Haven10.56
1012Caleb SmithZeeland West11.14
1112Logan ViningGrand Haven11.50
1211Jaxon AllenMuskegon Reeths-Puffer12.11
1310Carter LivermoreGrandville12.57
1412Brendan WanglerJenison13.80
1512Charles LewisRockford14.87
1612Nathan GoldingZeeland West14.97
1710Carson BerkoGrand Haven16.01
1811Nate FaheyRockford16.89
1912Austin O’brienGrand Rapids Kenowa hills19.05
209Robert DoddZeeland West20.91
2111Jack DeKruyterZeeland West22.09
229Ethan ShoffnerCedar Springs24.00
239Aron GalGrand Haven24.71
2412Connor WooleyHolland West Ottawa25.88
259Caleb TeBrakeGrand Rapids Northview27.62
269Keagan SmithZeeland West28.26
2710Noah SchuetteRockford28.48
2811Roman SmithGrand Haven28.52
2912Will MarthJenison29.08
3011Carson HauchZeeland West29.10

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Holland West Ottawa3695+95+
2Jenison8895+
3Grand Haven9390
4Rockford11412

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Helen SachsHolland West Ottawa1.19
212Arianne OlsonHolland West Ottawa1.84
312Allison ArnsmanGrandville2.97
412Maya GuikemaJenison4.84
510Valerie BeeckGrand Haven5.01
610Jordyn KlaasenZeeland West5.47
712Megan PostmaHolland West Ottawa7.69
89Trinity VanderWoudeRockford8.10
912Bella HofferZeeland West11.44
109Ava PorrasHolland West Ottawa11.89
1110Natalie LewisRockford12.06
1212Maggie OttoJenison12.43
1310Jane OlneyHolland West Ottawa13.22
149Ellery HornessMuskegon Mona Shores13.98
1511Madelyn Vande BunteJenison14.47
1610Addison SmithGrand Haven16.23
1712Larissa McGrathCedar Springs17.14
189Cianah Budnik-RamosGrand Haven19.87
1912Robyn HuntMuskegon Mona Shores21.35
2012Cecilia ConradMuskegon Mona Shores22.87
219Addie BirkholzHolland West Ottawa24.11
2210Emma SmithRockford24.36
2312Elise ConkelHudsonville24.92
2410Abi AlbrightGrand Haven26.62
2510Abbey ScholmaHudsonville27.23
2611Payton HosleyGrand Haven28.25
2710Naomi DiekmanJenison28.75
2811Annalise ElliottCedar Springs29.57
2910Devin FisherRockford29.61
3010Emma GunnettHolland West Ottawa31.20

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