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County Week – Weekend Projections

Championship Season continues on, this time to the tune of more County Championships and Greater Lansing.

I’ve been keeping this idea in my back pocket. It’s not necessarily my idea, just something I’ve wanted to do for a while. A Monte Carlo Simulation. This guy harkens back to my poker playing days, paying for college by learning the odds for various hand scenarios. During the spring, I worked on a few for track, though pulling data from athletic.net is tiring. Pulling data that I already have in a database is much easier.

Anyhow, a Monte Carlo simulation pertaining to cross country ratings in layman’s terms is this: Given an average speed rating, standard deviation, and variance of those numbers, random ratings are generated for each runner in a race. One can run as many race simulations as they dream possible. From there, the average place can be determined, as can the average score. One can determine a runner’s odds for winning/placing, a teams odds for those same honors. This should control and better analyze teams/runners that are either highly polarizing or extremely consistent.

For Macomb County’s sake, I ran 100 simulations, for State I may run 10,000. I just performed Macomb County as a trial run for the Upper Peninsula preview. The other meets are just by my standard (maybe soon to be extinct) method of sorting and scoring by a runner’s ranking.

I understand some of these meets have teams in separate divisions, but it appears that each meet has exactly one varsity race per gender, so I listed these as if they’re one singular race. They’re cut off at the top ~25 of individuals (except for Macomb, so that Glenn Craze can compare my figures vs. his – ALSO WHERE IS THE MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST?) and the top ~90% of teams, I’m not gonna predict a team finishes last (except for State, in which you should be proud that you at least qualified).

Have fun with these! Use ’em as a boost of confidence or added motivation, but remember I’m rooting for all your championship success.

MACOMB COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. Score
1Romeo52
2Utica83
3Fraser109
4Macomb Dakota119
5New Baltimore Anchor Bay134
6Utica Eisenhower162
7Macomb L’Anse Creuse North186
8Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse197
9Clinton Township Chippewa Valley269
10Macomb Lutheran North288
11Armada300
12Lakeview St. Clair Shores356
13Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers356
14Warren Cousino386
15Sterling Heights Stevenson395
16Utica Ford399
17Richmond504
18Warren Woods Tower543
19Warren Mott588
20Warren DeLaSalle589

TeamWin %Top 3 %
Romeo100100
Utica100
Fraser73
Macomb Dakota24
New Baltimore Anchor Bay3

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Trent McFarlandUtica1.58
211Thomas WestphalNew Baltimore Anchor Bay1.68
311Connor ClorRomeo3.78
411Vincent GuaresimoRomeo3.81
512Justin RooseFraser5.39
612Camden KhonArmada7.23
712Jack MathersMacomb Dakota8.17
811Tyler DonovanFraser9.12
911Dylan PenberthyMacomb L’Anse Creuse North9.39
109Lance EdghillFraser11.96
1112Jacob MaurerUtica Eisenhower12.38
1211Ethan MuraszewskiUtica12.40
1311Carter FoxMacomb Dakota15.23
1411Tyler BrothersUtica Eisenhower15.89
1511Zachary RubiczNew Baltimore Anchor Bay15.96
1611Brandon PenberthyMacomb L’Anse Creuse North16.43
1712Derrian KumferRomeo16.68
1812Eli HullingerRomeo18.28
1911Bryce GoodsellRomeo18.68
2011Michael MagnoliRomeo19.13
219Harper WesleyUtica21.59
2211Jack DeWaeleClinton Township Chippewa Valley21.71
2311Danny BoydUtica22.97
2411Simon DavisMacomb Dakota25.37
2512Logan DavisUtica25.94
2610Luke MorehouseUtica27.13
2710Owen GouldRomeo27.16
2811Aidan LeslieNew Baltimore Anchor Bay28.14
2912Carter RodzikUtica Eisenhower28.40
3012Robert GalanHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse28.83
3112Ben PuzzuoliHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse29.68
3212Ryan HallUtica31.86
3312Carson GilbertsonMacomb Dakota33.71
3411Brewer SnayMacomb Lutheran North34.88
3512Cameron SherrillHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse36.23
3612Riley AndrewsArmada37.97
3710Colton HowellMacomb Dakota38.12
389Eric DeWaeleClinton Township Chippewa Valley38.75
3910Aidan DalyHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse38.96
4012Emmanuel BaranykMichigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers39.05

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. Score
1Romeo37
2Utica76
3Macomb Dakota93
4Fraser146
5Warren Regina179
6Utica Eisenhower195
7Armada207
8Macomb Lutheran North230
9Richmond298
10Macomb L’Anse Creuse North338
11Warren Woods Tower358
12Clinton Township Chippewa Valley367
13Lakeview St. Clair Shores372
14Utica Ford379
15New Baltimore Anchor Bay386
16Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers411
17Sterling Heights Stevenson414
18Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse458
19Warren Cousino511
20Lake Shore St. Clair Shores561

TeamWin %Top 3 %
Romeo98100
Utica100
Macomb Dakota100
I hope I don’t have to eat crow on this one.

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota2.49
212Madison ClorRomeo2.62
39Emmerson ClorRomeo3.53
410Violet HrabovskyRomeo5.38
511Addison JohnsonUtica5.93
610Grace GrupidoFraser6.31
710Brooklyn KhonArmada7.97
812Ava LaMilzaMacomb Dakota9.85
99Siene MuraszewskiUtica10.08
1012Isabella BeckUtica Eisenhower10.98
119Natalia GuaresimoRomeo11.54
1211Brianna AlbersRichmond14.71
1312Meagan VerellenUtica14.80
1412AnnDee GeddesMacomb L’Anse Creuse North15.23
1510Elizabeth AmbroggioWarren Regina16.07
1611Kennedy RoskoppWarren Regina16.09
1712Lindsay HarveyMacomb Dakota17.79
1812Anne MayMacomb Lutheran North20.81
1912Ava RawleyUtica21.78
2011Gracie YoungbloodRomeo22.20
2110Charlotte LongUtica Eisenhower22.22
2212Helana NapiorkowskiAustin Catholic22.66
2311Lauren ThomasNew Baltimore Anchor Bay23.03
2411Remi FlanzFraser23.57
259Lidia ClancyMacomb Dakota23.63
2610Olivia PurdyRomeo24.44
2710Shelby StabileHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse25.28
2812Abby FifieldUtica28.35
2912Olivia EbelMacomb Lutheran North30.38
3012Grace WesselMichigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers30.97
3110Norah LesnerUtica34.10
3212Taliyah DawsonWarren Woods Tower34.44
3312Anna HollowayFraser34.78
3410Natalie LentineWarren Regina37.08
3511Darrah MackenzieArmada39.48
3612Natalie LangkamUtica Eisenhower39.68
3710Luciana RodriguezFraser40.41
3811Tori TrumperMacomb Dakota41.54
3912Avery SaunderMacomb L’Anse Creuse North42.71
4011Lauren KoskiMacomb Lutheran North42.90

You may notice that the average places and the average scores may not add up. Romeo’s girls are a prime example. Running simulations emits a whole range of scenarios for scores. For the Bulldogs who seem to have two very good candidates for a 5th girl, odds are that one will have a good day. Given that only one has to have a good day for her score to count, their average score comes out to be lower than the predicted places of Youngblood and Purdy.

GREATER LANSING

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1St. Johns129
2East Lansing161
3Okemos196
4Grand Ledge198
5Saranac199
6Alma247
7Pewamo-Westphalia252
8Howell257
9Mason269
10St. Louis278
11DeWitt291
12Eaton Rapids300
13Corunna335
14Holt391
15Leslie399
16Ionia425
17Bath442
18Charlotte477
19Williamston504
20Fowlerville557
21Haslett596
22Lansing Catholic596
23Stockbridge596
24Carson City-Crystal641
25Laingsburg708
26Owosso714
27Lansing Waverly740
28Potterville808
29Lake Odessa Lakewood813
30Lansing Eastern865

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Joey BowmanSt. Johns
211Nate CarmodyHaslett
311Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia
412Camden JohnecheckWilliamston
511Ben MarchSt. Louis
611Isaac StaibSt. Johns
79Thomas LarsonAlma
812Koda BrandtCharlotte
912Tyler DohmSt. Johns
1010Alex DonethMason
1110Nolan InglisDeWitt
1212Cameron PierceLeslie
1311Jacob MontgomeryIonia
1412James MeningaMason
1511Nathan DaySaranac
1612Austin RyboltEaton Rapids
1712Brett MarschallFowlerville
1812Logan RokaCorunna
1911Kenny EvansCorunna
2010Nathan WilkinsonOkemos
2111Noah DeLandHowell
2212Gabe BenavidesEast Lansing
2312Sam ElderGrand Ledge
2411Eden LampiEast Lansing
2512Elijah PowellSaranac

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Okemos94
2Pewamo-Westphalia161
3Alma185
4St. Johns186
5Howell199
6Grand Ledge201
7Williamston203
8DeWitt214
9Lansing Catholic220
10Holt243
11Owosso244
12Leslie285
13Haslett315
14Mason433
15East Lansing462
16Eaton Rapids478
17Laingsburg534
18St. Louis536
19Saranac555
20Charlotte563
21Fowlerville584
22Corunna621
23Lake Odessa Lakewood629
24Ionia707
25Fowler725
26Stockbridge739
27Lansing Waverly760
28Lansing Christian770
29Bath786
30Lansing Eastern911

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112CC JonesLansing Catholic
212Hannah PriccoLansing Catholic
312Taylor PangburnGrand Ledge
412Mackenzie WrightHowell
511Tessa RoeLansing Catholic
612Madeleine HillSaranac
712Emma NetzelHolt
811Clara FletcherSt. Johns
910Lauren WalkerHolt
1010Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia
1111Shannon GillahanOkemos
1211Meghan FordMason
1310Ezgi KurtAlma
1411Lily SalazarOkemos
1510Nicole SchaferWilliamston
1611Abby YoungSt. Johns
1711Nicole MaysOkemos
189Elizabeth SchaferOkemos
199Aviana SkinnerGrand Ledge
2012Lauren HunterHaslett
219Hailey CreisherLeslie
2210Kayla WilliamsDeWitt
2312Abby ArensPewamo-Westphalia
2410Joy EvansAlma
2510Jaiden GriffithWilliamston

GMAA

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Whitehall77
2Muskegon Mona Shores83
3Fruitport85
4Muskegon Reeths-Puffer90
5Muskegon Western Michigan Christian129
6North Muskegon141
7Montague167
8Ravenna204
9Muskegon Catholic Central212
10Muskegon Oakridge232

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Caleb BranchMuskegon Mona Shores
212Andre RichmondWhitehall
312Carter McIlroyWhitehall
411Jaxon AllenMuskegon Reeths-Puffer
512Owen FairchildMontague
611Matthew AntonRavenna
710Vincent PollockFruitport
810Peyton RuelMuskegon Oakridge
910Kye GrantMuskegon Reeths-Puffer
1010Stewart WatersWhitehall
1112Johnathon McMullinFruitport
1211Will ParsekianMuskegon Mona Shores
1312Jude Meldrum-RoyNorth Muskegon
1410Matthias MorseMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
1510Vaire VanderwalleMuskegon Mona Shores
1611Graeson LawrenceMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
1712Jonathan ClausingMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
1811Clay JohnsonMontague
1911Tate BradleyMuskegon Reeths-Puffer
2011Levi GlynnFruitport
2111Aidan KrepsMuskegon Mona Shores
2211Evan Atkinson-MillerNorth Muskegon
2311Alex WilberFruitport
2411Levi BolFruitport
2511Ethan HoranFruitport

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Muskegon Mona Shores30
2Whitehall61
3Muskegon Western Michigan Christian63
4Fruitport132
5Muskegon Reeths-Puffer133
6Montague178
7Muskegon Oakridge179
8Muskegon Catholic Central217
9Ravenna238
10Muskegon310

PlaceGradeNameTeam
110Grace VanderKooiMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
29Ellery HornessMuskegon Mona Shores
312Robyn HuntMuskegon Mona Shores
412Cecilia ConradMuskegon Mona Shores
510Cami KraaiWhitehall
612Ariana TreatWhitehall
710Valerie PollockFruitport
811Grace FolkemaMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
912Destiny DouglasMuskegon Mona Shores
1011Cammie EricksonMontague
1112Carolyn BennettNorth Muskegon
129Jersi BilekMuskegon Reeths-Puffer
139Kendall BragintonMuskegon Mona Shores
1411Tatum DykstraFruitport
1512Allison TateWhitehall
169Alia ZuidemaMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
1710Adalyn BrittonWhitehall
1812Brianna ZuidemaMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
1911Merceydez PattonMuskegon Oakridge
2011Lilly HouleMuskegon Mona Shores
2110Corina MitteerWhitehall
2212Samantha HillMuskegon Mona Shores
2311Eleanor KingshottMuskegon Western Mich. Christian
2411Raegan RuelMuskegon Oakridge
2512Cally CamaraMuskegon Catholic Central

LENAWEE COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Adrian16
2Adrian Lenawee Christian85
3Hudson108
4Tecumseh123
5Clinton129
6Onsted146
7Adrian Madison149
8Morenci167
9Blissfield288
10Addison303

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Braylon PettyAdrian
212Aiden SmithAdrian
39Moises SalazarAdrian
412Ben SchefkaAdrian
511Alex CzeiszpergerHudson
612Jake EaglingAdrian
710Mitchell HiattOnsted
811Grant FahleTecumseh
912Brody AmthorOnsted
1011Lucas GoodmanClinton
1111Matthew CanalesAdrian
1212Henry FrederickAdrian Madison
1312Lucas LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian
149Pierson CousinoAdrian Lenawee Christian
1510Landyn SouleAdrian
1611Nathan DanielsAdrian Lenawee Christian
1710Isaac St. JohnHudson
1812Zack GilliesClinton
1910Palmer ZiemerTecumseh
2012Grant LongAdrian Lenawee Christian
2112Bryson BachelderMorenci
2210Joel LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian
2310Gabe ManchesterClinton
249Nicholas SorrowHudson
2512Jamari WilliamsAdrian Madison

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Tecumseh54
2Adrian59
3Onsted76
4Blissfield93
5Clinton108
6Hudson141
7Adrian Lenawee Christian181
8Sand Creek199

PlaceGradeNameTeam
110Emmry RossOnsted
212Kara TerakedisOnsted
312Kaylee PestaTecumseh
410Izzy BrooksAdrian Lenawee Christian
59Hope MillerBlissfield
612Chesney WilkeTecumseh
711Anastee DavisAdrian
810Sophy SkeelsAdrian
911Yoselin Fermin-CamposAdrian
1011Cylee ElkinsClinton
1110Madison MorrisTecumseh
1212Mari CuetoBlissfield
139Hailey SillsBlissfield
1411Samantha CootsClinton
1512Katie FischerAdrian
169Emersyn BachelderMorenci
1712Emma AbbottTecumseh
1811June MillerBlissfield
1912Emily StevensonTecumseh
2010Stephanie HernandezAddison
219Annabelle CzeiszpergerHudson
229Mavee ClarkAdrian
2310Jessica WarrenTecumseh
2412Allyson RobargeOnsted
2511Allison BowlesClinton

J. CHRIS JENSEN (JACKSON COUNTY)

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Hanover-Horton30
2Parma Western69
3Jackson Lumen Christi119
4Concord119
5East Jackson179
6Grass Lake186
7Napoleon187
8Brooklyn Columbia Central193
9Jackson Northwest209
10Jackson232

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Rogan MellingHanover-Horton
212Austin BrownHanover-Horton
311Cooper SingletonParma Western
412Adair ArtisConcord
511Gannon ShoreJackson Lumen Christi
610Landon BoulisHanover-Horton
711Michael AllenEast Jackson
810Isaiah DinvernoJackson Lumen Christi
99Edison LopemanParma Western
1011Evan ShepherdHanover-Horton
119Zach HassenzahlHanover-Horton
1210Diego BoColeJackson Preparatory
1311Javin MericleEast Jackson
1411Kyler PequetNapoleon
1512Zach KubishParma Western
1612Isaac WaldronConcord
179Cole BatesConcord
1811Owen BrownHanover-Horton
1911David MartinParma Western
2012Andrew EnglandJackson
219Alex HoldaGrass Lake
229Wyatt VowellBrooklyn Columbia Central
239James BoobyerParma Western
2412Nick SchuetteHanover-Horton
2510Titan ParkerParma Western

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Jackson Lumen Christi17
2Hanover-Horton93
3Grass Lake95
4Parma Western96
5Napoleon141
6Concord166
7Jackson Northwest176
8Jackson205
9Jackson Preparatory211

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Madison OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi
29Macy FazekasJackson Lumen Christi
311Layla LopezJackson Lumen Christi
49Chloe KhonJackson Northwest
512Hope WilkesBrooklyn Columbia Central
612Gabrielle OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi
711Sydney FazekasJackson Lumen Christi
89Cieara BarrettConcord
911Ava ViegelahnGrass Lake
1012Justice PrinsParma Western
1110Thia TelloJackson Lumen Christi
1210Marina WalzParma Western
1312Sarah AnastasiadisJackson Lumen Christi
1412Olivianna WatkinsHanover-Horton
1512Isabella BerryHanover-Horton
1610Lauren McLainNapoleon
1712Olivia OrtellJackson Preparatory
189Katie MillionGrass Lake
1910Grace BullockGrass Lake
2011Madelyn NormanNapoleon
2112Lillian HeydenburgParma Western
2211Alexis FlintHanover-Horton
239Kennedy BugbeeHanover-Horton
2410Priya MericleEast Jackson
2511Lily MasonHanover-Horton

DOWNRIVER GABRIEL RICHARD

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Dearborn67
2Allen Park69
3Riverview96
4Brownstown Woodhaven127
5Wyandotte Roosevelt167
6Trenton174
7Gibraltar Carlson176
8Grosse Ile178
9Dearborn Heights Crestwood187
10Allen Park Cabrini221

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Logan RuffnerRiverview
212Sam RobertsDearborn
312Christopher RusselburgAllen Park Cabrini
412Michael MakuchWyandotte Roosevelt
511Jon AndersonGibraltar Carlson
612Aidan OakleyDearborn
711Caleb WynnAllen Park
812Alex MeszarosRiverview Gabriel Richard
99Pierce SchefflerWoodhaven-Brownstown
1012Harry KrafchakDearborn Heights Crestwood
1112Blake RobinsonRiverview
1212Ethan DuhlDearborn
1311Hayden HolmesRiverview
1411Matthew MizziAllen Park
1511Caleb DeLaGarzaAllen Park
1612Drake SteeleAllen Park
1710Brady BoroniecAllen Park
1812Johnny BenkoRiverview Gabriel Richard
1911Ethan JohnsonWyandotte Roosevelt
209Alex VazquezWoodhaven-Brownstown
2111Evan SmithWoodhaven-Brownstown
2211Andrew MontierthDearborn
2311Israel GarciaRiverview
2410Nathan LaweGibraltar Carlson
259William SchookDearborn

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Dearborn Divine Child51
2Wyandotte Roosevelt100
3Allen Park109
4Brownstown Woodhaven112
5Dearborn158
6Grosse Ile160
7Allen Park Cabrini161
8Dearborn Heights Crestwood202
9Trenton230
10Riverview235

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Samantha CostWyandotte Roosevelt
211Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini
311Payton SchefflerWoodhaven-Brownstown
410Marisa ChueyTrenton
511Batoul HamkaDearborn
610Kathryn KurtinaitisDearborn Divine Child
711Kirsten KossDearborn Divine Child
812Luci GranataAllen Park
911Sparrow CentenoSouthgate Anderson
109Anna KujansuuDearborn Divine Child
119Alyssa KorteGrosse Ile
1210Devyn DoreyTrenton
1311Daniela HinojosRiverview
1410Anahi ChapaAllen Park
1512Isabelle BaroneDearborn Divine Child
1612Ella SladeDearborn Divine Child
1711Michelle RoqueGrosse Ile
1811Keira WoodRiverview
1911Claire BiretaAllen Park
2010Katie DeislerDearborn Divine Child
2110Raelyn McLaughlinWoodhaven-Brownstown
2211Lauren MorenoWyandotte Roosevelt
2312Lena HalesSouthgate Anderson
2410Mercedes DziendzielWyandotte Roosevelt
2510Kayla SladeDearborn Divine Child

21 thoughts on “County Week – Weekend Projections”

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