Championship Season continues on, this time to the tune of more County Championships and Greater Lansing.
I’ve been keeping this idea in my back pocket. It’s not necessarily my idea, just something I’ve wanted to do for a while. A Monte Carlo Simulation. This guy harkens back to my poker playing days, paying for college by learning the odds for various hand scenarios. During the spring, I worked on a few for track, though pulling data from athletic.net is tiring. Pulling data that I already have in a database is much easier.
Anyhow, a Monte Carlo simulation pertaining to cross country ratings in layman’s terms is this: Given an average speed rating, standard deviation, and variance of those numbers, random ratings are generated for each runner in a race. One can run as many race simulations as they dream possible. From there, the average place can be determined, as can the average score. One can determine a runner’s odds for winning/placing, a teams odds for those same honors. This should control and better analyze teams/runners that are either highly polarizing or extremely consistent.
For Macomb County’s sake, I ran 100 simulations, for State I may run 10,000. I just performed Macomb County as a trial run for the Upper Peninsula preview. The other meets are just by my standard (maybe soon to be extinct) method of sorting and scoring by a runner’s ranking.
I understand some of these meets have teams in separate divisions, but it appears that each meet has exactly one varsity race per gender, so I listed these as if they’re one singular race. They’re cut off at the top ~25 of individuals (except for Macomb, so that Glenn Craze can compare my figures vs. his – ALSO WHERE IS THE MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST?) and the top ~90% of teams, I’m not gonna predict a team finishes last (except for State, in which you should be proud that you at least qualified).
Have fun with these! Use ’em as a boost of confidence or added motivation, but remember I’m rooting for all your championship success.
MACOMB COUNTY
Boys
Place
Team
Avg. Score
1
Romeo
52
2
Utica
83
3
Fraser
109
4
Macomb Dakota
119
5
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
134
6
Utica Eisenhower
162
7
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
186
8
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
197
9
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
269
10
Macomb Lutheran North
288
11
Armada
300
12
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
356
13
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
356
14
Warren Cousino
386
15
Sterling Heights Stevenson
395
16
Utica Ford
399
17
Richmond
504
18
Warren Woods Tower
543
19
Warren Mott
588
20
Warren DeLaSalle
589
Team
Win %
Top 3 %
Romeo
100
100
Utica
100
Fraser
73
Macomb Dakota
24
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
3
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Trent McFarland
Utica
1.58
2
11
Thomas Westphal
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
1.68
3
11
Connor Clor
Romeo
3.78
4
11
Vincent Guaresimo
Romeo
3.81
5
12
Justin Roose
Fraser
5.39
6
12
Camden Khon
Armada
7.23
7
12
Jack Mathers
Macomb Dakota
8.17
8
11
Tyler Donovan
Fraser
9.12
9
11
Dylan Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
9.39
10
9
Lance Edghill
Fraser
11.96
11
12
Jacob Maurer
Utica Eisenhower
12.38
12
11
Ethan Muraszewski
Utica
12.40
13
11
Carter Fox
Macomb Dakota
15.23
14
11
Tyler Brothers
Utica Eisenhower
15.89
15
11
Zachary Rubicz
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
15.96
16
11
Brandon Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
16.43
17
12
Derrian Kumfer
Romeo
16.68
18
12
Eli Hullinger
Romeo
18.28
19
11
Bryce Goodsell
Romeo
18.68
20
11
Michael Magnoli
Romeo
19.13
21
9
Harper Wesley
Utica
21.59
22
11
Jack DeWaele
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
21.71
23
11
Danny Boyd
Utica
22.97
24
11
Simon Davis
Macomb Dakota
25.37
25
12
Logan Davis
Utica
25.94
26
10
Luke Morehouse
Utica
27.13
27
10
Owen Gould
Romeo
27.16
28
11
Aidan Leslie
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
28.14
29
12
Carter Rodzik
Utica Eisenhower
28.40
30
12
Robert Galan
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
28.83
31
12
Ben Puzzuoli
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
29.68
32
12
Ryan Hall
Utica
31.86
33
12
Carson Gilbertson
Macomb Dakota
33.71
34
11
Brewer Snay
Macomb Lutheran North
34.88
35
12
Cameron Sherrill
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
36.23
36
12
Riley Andrews
Armada
37.97
37
10
Colton Howell
Macomb Dakota
38.12
38
9
Eric DeWaele
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
38.75
39
10
Aidan Daly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
38.96
40
12
Emmanuel Baranyk
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
39.05
Girls
Place
Team
Avg. Score
1
Romeo
37
2
Utica
76
3
Macomb Dakota
93
4
Fraser
146
5
Warren Regina
179
6
Utica Eisenhower
195
7
Armada
207
8
Macomb Lutheran North
230
9
Richmond
298
10
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
338
11
Warren Woods Tower
358
12
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
367
13
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
372
14
Utica Ford
379
15
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
386
16
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
411
17
Sterling Heights Stevenson
414
18
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
458
19
Warren Cousino
511
20
Lake Shore St. Clair Shores
561
Team
Win %
Top 3 %
Romeo
98
100
Utica
100
Macomb Dakota
100
I hope I don’t have to eat crow on this one.
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Jayden Harberts
Macomb Dakota
2.49
2
12
Madison Clor
Romeo
2.62
3
9
Emmerson Clor
Romeo
3.53
4
10
Violet Hrabovsky
Romeo
5.38
5
11
Addison Johnson
Utica
5.93
6
10
Grace Grupido
Fraser
6.31
7
10
Brooklyn Khon
Armada
7.97
8
12
Ava LaMilza
Macomb Dakota
9.85
9
9
Siene Muraszewski
Utica
10.08
10
12
Isabella Beck
Utica Eisenhower
10.98
11
9
Natalia Guaresimo
Romeo
11.54
12
11
Brianna Albers
Richmond
14.71
13
12
Meagan Verellen
Utica
14.80
14
12
AnnDee Geddes
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
15.23
15
10
Elizabeth Ambroggio
Warren Regina
16.07
16
11
Kennedy Roskopp
Warren Regina
16.09
17
12
Lindsay Harvey
Macomb Dakota
17.79
18
12
Anne May
Macomb Lutheran North
20.81
19
12
Ava Rawley
Utica
21.78
20
11
Gracie Youngblood
Romeo
22.20
21
10
Charlotte Long
Utica Eisenhower
22.22
22
12
Helana Napiorkowski
Austin Catholic
22.66
23
11
Lauren Thomas
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
23.03
24
11
Remi Flanz
Fraser
23.57
25
9
Lidia Clancy
Macomb Dakota
23.63
26
10
Olivia Purdy
Romeo
24.44
27
10
Shelby Stabile
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
25.28
28
12
Abby Fifield
Utica
28.35
29
12
Olivia Ebel
Macomb Lutheran North
30.38
30
12
Grace Wessel
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
30.97
31
10
Norah Lesner
Utica
34.10
32
12
Taliyah Dawson
Warren Woods Tower
34.44
33
12
Anna Holloway
Fraser
34.78
34
10
Natalie Lentine
Warren Regina
37.08
35
11
Darrah Mackenzie
Armada
39.48
36
12
Natalie Langkam
Utica Eisenhower
39.68
37
10
Luciana Rodriguez
Fraser
40.41
38
11
Tori Trumper
Macomb Dakota
41.54
39
12
Avery Saunder
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
42.71
40
11
Lauren Koski
Macomb Lutheran North
42.90
You may notice that the average places and the average scores may not add up. Romeo’s girls are a prime example. Running simulations emits a whole range of scenarios for scores. For the Bulldogs who seem to have two very good candidates for a 5th girl, odds are that one will have a good day. Given that only one has to have a good day for her score to count, their average score comes out to be lower than the predicted places of Youngblood and Purdy.
21 thoughts on “County Week – Weekend Projections”