2022 Regional Projections – Willow Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Erie Mason	60	78	95+
2	Monroe St. Mary CC	72	12	95+
3	Manchester	81	10	84
4	Clinton	95		13

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	1.81
2	12	Nathan Kippnick	Manchester	2.76
3	11	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	2.96
4	12	Jackson Ansel	Erie Mason	3.08
5	12	Caiden Kippnick	Manchester	4.78
6	12	Elliott Rodgers	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	6.14
7	11	Lucas Goodman	Clinton	8.23
8	11	Lincoln Cha	Ann Arbor Greenhills	9.03
9	12	Ryan Joyce	Erie Mason	9.23
10	10	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	10.57
11	12	Luke Foster	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.39
12	9	Grant Johnson	Manchester	12.81
13	12	Zack Gillies	Clinton	13.09
14	10	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	14.47
15	10	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	15.31
16	9	Max Foldvary	Monroe St. Mary CC	15.94
17	9	Henry Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	18.57
18	9	Alex Holda	Grass Lake	18.94
19	11	Zach Kahn	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	18.97
20	12	Caden Arntz	Clinton	24.30
21	10	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	24.86
22	11	Hunter Anderson	Manchester	25.05
23	11	Jacob Smith	Monroe St. Mary CC	25.82
24	10	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	26.04
25	9	Jonah Kaplan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	26.61
26	10	Caleb Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	26.77
27	12	Parker Sorg	Erie Mason	27.82
28	12	Jack Gelso	Ida	28.12
29	9	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	29.36
30	9	Emmet Van Cleave	Grass Lake	31.71

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Monroe St. Mary CC	61	76	95+
2	Blissfield	66	24	95+
3	Clinton	86		87
4	Grass Lake	98		6
5	Ann Arbor Greenhills	101		7

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.24
2	9	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.33
3	9	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.52
4	12	Allie Koch	Manchester	4.20
5	11	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	5.19
6	12	Mari Cueto	Blissfield	6.93
7	9	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	7.25
8	11	Samantha Coots	Clinton	7.31
9	11	Ava Viegelahn	Grass Lake	10.40
10	11	June Miller	Blissfield	10.63
11	11	Katelyn Bydlowski	Ida	11.02
12	10	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	11.63
13	11	Allison Bowles	Clinton	14.59
14	11	Samantha LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.13
15	10	Alex Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.26
16	9	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	17.46
17	10	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	18.27
18	10	Abby Lechy	Monroe St. Mary CC	18.34
19	9	Katie Million	Grass Lake	18.52
20	9	Harper Cash	Ann Arbor Greenhills	19.11
21	11	Lydia Bennett	Manchester	21.13
22	10	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	23.85
23	11	Anika Bery	Ann Arbor Greenhills	25.59
24	11	Ava Kittendorf	Ann Arbor Greenhills	25.98
25	11	Vic Cunningham	Ann Arbor Greenhills	26.47
26	9	Ellie Marsh	Manchester	26.65
27	11	Navya Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	26.82
28	11	Madison Basham	Grass Lake	27.16
29	11	Cailynne Flint	Monroe St. Mary CC	27.45
30	12	Meezan Hamzavi	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.80

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	26	95+	95+
2	Plymouth	54		95+
3	Livonia Churchill	114		67
4	Salem	123		19
5	Canton	126		14

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brendan Herger	Northville	1.03
2	12	Sean Byrnes	Plymouth	2.00
3	12	Brady Heron	Northville	3.35
4	10	Ethan Powell	Northville	5.02
5	12	Alex Bobak	Plymouth	5.04
6	12	Brock Malaikal	Northville	6.23
7	12	Elliot Carey	Salem	7.39
8	12	Seth Pianga	Livonia Churchill	9.58
9	12	Sam Roberts	Dearborn	9.78
10	12	Brandon Latta	Northville	10.65
11	12	Max Wiley	Canton	12.29
12	10	Adam Dicken	Canton	13.51
13	12	Reuben Philip	Livonia Stevenson	13.56
14	11	Nicholas Yaquinto	Northville	13.95
15	12	Tyler Gaylord	Plymouth	15.67
16	12	David Whitaker	Northville	16.30
17	11	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	16.49
18	10	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	17.31
19	12	Jackson Trombly	Plymouth	19.11
20	12	Alex Aljets	Livonia Churchill	19.62
21	11	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	20.68
22	12	Rene Vazquez	Wayne Memorial	22.31
23	12	Adam Bigelow	Ann Arbor Huron	24.15
24	12	Aidan Oakley	Dearborn	25.27
25	12	Caden Morche	Livonia Churchill	25.85
26	12	Jack Leyden	Salem	26.43
27	11	Joey Seale	Salem	27.82
28	11	Lucas Weintraub	Ann Arbor Huron	28.76
29	12	Ryland Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	29.10
30	11	PJ Kim	Salem	30.56

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	41	95+	95+
2	Canton	76		95+
3	Livonia Franklin	95		90
4	Ann Arbor Huron	119		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Cassie Garcia	Northville	1.10
2	11	Ella Christensen	Northville	2.54
3	12	Cara Newman	Canton	3.08
4	11	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	3.84
5	11	Alexis Pickerel	Canton	8.78
6	11	Sofia Figueroa	Wayne Memorial	9.73
7	10	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	9.76
8	11	Emerson Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	9.86
9	10	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	10.70
10	9	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	11.18
11	11	Batoul Hamka	Dearborn	12.40
12	9	MollyKate Coates	Northville	13.45
13	11	Lily Hetzel	Salem	14.41
14	10	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	15.77
15	10	Rosie Gregory	Northville	15.78
16	12	Anna Gdowski	Northville	16.05
17	11	Lily Connors	Northville	17.25
18	12	Emonie Bonner	Livonia Franklin	17.88
19	11	Sonya Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	19.56
20	11	Diane Weber	Ypsilanti	20.12
21	11	Claudia Swenson	Plymouth	20.57
22	9	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	20.66
23	11	Nora Schley	Canton	21.77
24	11	Taylor Steinagel	Canton	23.04
25	9	Sammi Gale	Northville	23.09
26	10	Elaina Braunscheidel	Livonia Stevenson	25.07
27	10	Rosa Brody	Canton	26.08
28	9	McKinnon Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	26.14
29	9	Mya Pickerel	Canton	27.94
30	9	Evelyn Kuhn	Livonia Franklin	29.00