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2022 Regional Projections – Willow Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Erie Mason607895+
2Monroe St. Mary CC721295+
3Manchester811084
4Clinton9513

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Simon VanderVluchtMonroe St. Mary CC1.81
212Nathan KippnickManchester2.76
311Keegan MastersOttawa Lake-Whiteford2.96
412Jackson AnselErie Mason3.08
512Caiden KippnickManchester4.78
612Elliott RodgersOttawa Lake-Whiteford6.14
711Lucas GoodmanClinton8.23
811Lincoln ChaAnn Arbor Greenhills9.03
912Ryan JoyceErie Mason9.23
1010Parker CampbellErie Mason10.57
1112Luke FosterMonroe St. Mary CC12.39
129Grant JohnsonManchester12.81
1312Zack GilliesClinton13.09
1410Austin SulierErie Mason14.47
1510Gabe ManchesterClinton15.31
169Max FoldvaryMonroe St. Mary CC15.94
179Henry WickenheiserMonroe St. Mary CC18.57
189Alex HoldaGrass Lake18.94
1911Zach KahnOttawa Lake-Whiteford18.97
2012Caden ArntzClinton24.30
2110Mason StranahanAnn Arbor Greenhills24.86
2211Hunter AndersonManchester25.05
2311Jacob SmithMonroe St. Mary CC25.82
2410Kevin RobertsYpsilanti Arbor Preparatory26.04
259Jonah KaplanAnn Arbor Greenhills26.61
2610Caleb TottenMonroe St. Mary CC26.77
2712Parker SorgErie Mason27.82
2812Jack GelsoIda28.12
299Jackson CarnerErie Mason29.36
309Emmet Van CleaveGrass Lake31.71

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Monroe St. Mary CC617695+
2Blissfield662495+
3Clinton8687
4Grass Lake986
5Ann Arbor Greenhills1017

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Eliza BushYpsilanti Arbor Preparatory1.24
29Bella LaFountainMonroe St. Mary CC2.33
39Hope MillerBlissfield2.52
412Allie KochManchester4.20
511Cylee ElkinsClinton5.19
612Mari CuetoBlissfield6.93
79Hailey SillsBlissfield7.25
811Samantha CootsClinton7.31
911Ava ViegelahnGrass Lake10.40
1011June MillerBlissfield10.63
1111Katelyn BydlowskiIda11.02
1210Claire LiskerMonroe St. Mary CC11.63
1311Allison BowlesClinton14.59
1411Samantha LaFountainMonroe St. Mary CC17.13
1510Alex WickenheiserMonroe St. Mary CC17.26
169Janaan RehmanAnn Arbor Greenhills17.46
1710Grace BullockGrass Lake18.27
1810Abby LechyMonroe St. Mary CC18.34
199Katie MillionGrass Lake18.52
209Harper CashAnn Arbor Greenhills19.11
2111Lydia BennettManchester21.13
2210Bailey MeiringErie Mason23.85
2311Anika BeryAnn Arbor Greenhills25.59
2411Ava KittendorfAnn Arbor Greenhills25.98
2511Vic CunninghamAnn Arbor Greenhills26.47
269Ellie MarshManchester26.65
2711Navya AshokAnn Arbor Greenhills26.82
2811Madison BashamGrass Lake27.16
2911Cailynne FlintMonroe St. Mary CC27.45
3012Meezan HamzaviAnn Arbor Greenhills27.80

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Northville2695+95+
2Plymouth5495+
3Livonia Churchill11467
4Salem12319
5Canton12614

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Brendan HergerNorthville1.03
212Sean ByrnesPlymouth2.00
312Brady HeronNorthville3.35
410Ethan PowellNorthville5.02
512Alex BobakPlymouth5.04
612Brock MalaikalNorthville6.23
712Elliot CareySalem7.39
812Seth PiangaLivonia Churchill9.58
912Sam RobertsDearborn9.78
1012Brandon LattaNorthville10.65
1112Max WileyCanton12.29
1210Adam DickenCanton13.51
1312Reuben PhilipLivonia Stevenson13.56
1411Nicholas YaquintoNorthville13.95
1512Tyler GaylordPlymouth15.67
1612David WhitakerNorthville16.30
1711Anirudh KrishnanPlymouth16.49
1810Jack ChadwickPlymouth17.31
1912Jackson TromblyPlymouth19.11
2012Alex AljetsLivonia Churchill19.62
2111Ian LewisLivonia Churchill20.68
2212Rene VazquezWayne Memorial22.31
2312Adam BigelowAnn Arbor Huron24.15
2412Aidan OakleyDearborn25.27
2512Caden MorcheLivonia Churchill25.85
2612Jack LeydenSalem26.43
2711Joey SealeSalem27.82
2811Lucas WeintraubAnn Arbor Huron28.76
2912Ryland HughesLivonia Stevenson29.10
3011PJ KimSalem30.56

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Northville4195+95+
2Canton7695+
3Livonia Franklin9590
4Ann Arbor Huron1199

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Cassie GarciaNorthville1.10
211Ella ChristensenNorthville2.54
312Cara NewmanCanton3.08
411Layla KrayemLivonia Stevenson3.84
511Alexis PickerelCanton8.78
611Sofia FigueroaWayne Memorial9.73
710Kaelin HughesLivonia Stevenson9.76
811Emerson NordbeckLivonia Franklin9.86
910Lucinda PalianiAnn Arbor Huron10.70
109Rianna RadulescuLivonia Churchill11.18
1111Batoul HamkaDearborn12.40
129MollyKate CoatesNorthville13.45
1311Lily HetzelSalem14.41
1410Ava PetersLivonia Franklin15.77
1510Rosie GregoryNorthville15.78
1612Anna GdowskiNorthville16.05
1711Lily ConnorsNorthville17.25
1812Emonie BonnerLivonia Franklin17.88
1911Sonya ShelgikarAnn Arbor Huron19.56
2011Diane WeberYpsilanti20.12
2111Claudia SwensonPlymouth20.57
229Leena ShelgikarAnn Arbor Huron20.66
2311Nora SchleyCanton21.77
2411Taylor SteinagelCanton23.04
259Sammi GaleNorthville23.09
2610Elaina BraunscheidelLivonia Stevenson25.07
2710Rosa BrodyCanton26.08
289McKinnon NordbeckLivonia Franklin26.14
299Mya PickerelCanton27.94
309Evelyn KuhnLivonia Franklin29.00

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