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2022 Regional Projections – South Christian Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1East Grand Rapids349295+
2Forest Hills Eastern47895+
3Battle Creek Harper Creek13059
4Wayland Union13339

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Aiden SullivanForest Hills Eastern1.02
211Ryan BrinkerEast Grand Rapids2.23
311Alex TholeEast Grand Rapids3.49
412Caleb BoesGrand Rapids South Christian5.41
512Elijah RobinsonEast Grand Rapids5.45
610Dominic LowrieBattle Creek Harper Creek6.90
79Jonah WorkmanEast Grand Rapids7.60
811Brendan HovingForest Hills Eastern8.78
912Devin WeaverWayland Union11.89
1012Jack DeVriesGR West Michigan Aviation12.23
1112Alex ParkerForest Hills Eastern12.59
1210Jack BidwellMarshall12.87
1312Joseph VanderKooiGrand Rapids South Christian12.96
1411Liam HinmanForest Hills Eastern13.55
1510Henry DixonForest Hills Eastern14.23
1611Cooper JacobsenForest Hills Eastern14.53
1711Davis ChristyEast Grand Rapids15.49
1811Jacob MontgomeryIonia16.99
1911William O’DellBattle Creek Harper Creek19.38
2011Maxwell McCartyBelding19.64
2110Dylan PallettWayland Union20.44
2211Brian O’DellBattle Creek Harper Creek21.71
2312Wyatt McCombRichland Gull Lake23.32
2412Davis HeadEast Grand Rapids24.06
2512Ryan McMahonEast Grand Rapids24.79
2611Riley ShultsHastings25.38
2711Lucas Van MeterMiddleville Thornapple-Kellogg28.39
2811Tate MillerForest Hills Eastern28.77
2912Travis KoonWayland Union29.12
3011Connor GriffithMarshall29.13

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1East Grand Rapids2395+95+
2Forest Hills Eastern5795+
3Grand Rapids South Christian9976
4GR West Michigan Aviation10524

I swear, I didn’t plan those average places from the Lynn twynns.

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Drew MullerEast Grand Rapids1.00
210Sadey SeyferthEast Grand Rapids3.39
311Addison WashlerForest Hills Eastern4.82
49Gracie LynnEast Grand Rapids5.00
59Reese LynnEast Grand Rapids5.00
612Sarah DixonForest Hills Eastern7.48
711Emma DeVriesGR West Michigan Aviation8.53
811Camille DeColaMarshall8.85
910Ava CrewsMiddleville Thornapple-Kellogg9.16
1012Ellory ClasonForest Hills Eastern10.02
1112Camryn BodineEast Grand Rapids11.44
1212Olivia BarabasWayland Union11.57
1311Ashlyn SmithForest Hills Eastern12.21
1411Sophia LadoEast Grand Rapids12.52
1511Ellia AgarGrand Rapids South Christian13.74
169Chloe RinzemaGrand Rapids South Christian15.93
1710Desiree Duque-RicoGR West Michigan Aviation16.80
1811Brooklyn SpringvloedGrand Rapids South Christian18.71
1912Halle OvermireGrand Rapids South Christian20.73
2012Megan LenemanIonia21.90
2112Abigail PetrEast Grand Rapids22.21
2212Kayla BarnaGR West Michigan Aviation23.66
2312Kate LaidlawForest Hills Eastern24.25
2412Belinda VrielinkGR West Michigan Aviation25.48
2512Madison BerningBattle Creek Harper Creek26.02
2612Neveah HelderopHopkins27.01
2712Zariah OzuzuMarshall27.22
2810Mackenzie ZahmBelding28.56
2911Katie BehnkeBattle Creek Harper Creek28.79
309Jillian ClasonForest Hills Eastern29.54

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