2022 Regional Projections – South Christian Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	34	92	95+
2	Forest Hills Eastern	47	8	95+
3	Battle Creek Harper Creek	130		59
4	Wayland Union	133		39

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	1.02
2	11	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	2.23
3	11	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	3.49
4	12	Caleb Boes	Grand Rapids South Christian	5.41
5	12	Elijah Robinson	East Grand Rapids	5.45
6	10	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	6.90
7	9	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	7.60
8	11	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	8.78
9	12	Devin Weaver	Wayland Union	11.89
10	12	Jack DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	12.23
11	12	Alex Parker	Forest Hills Eastern	12.59
12	10	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	12.87
13	12	Joseph VanderKooi	Grand Rapids South Christian	12.96
14	11	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	13.55
15	10	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	14.23
16	11	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	14.53
17	11	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	15.49
18	11	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	16.99
19	11	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	19.38
20	11	Maxwell McCarty	Belding	19.64
21	10	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	20.44
22	11	Brian O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	21.71
23	12	Wyatt McComb	Richland Gull Lake	23.32
24	12	Davis Head	East Grand Rapids	24.06
25	12	Ryan McMahon	East Grand Rapids	24.79
26	11	Riley Shults	Hastings	25.38
27	11	Lucas Van Meter	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	28.39
28	11	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	28.77
29	12	Travis Koon	Wayland Union	29.12
30	11	Connor Griffith	Marshall	29.13

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	23	95+	95+
2	Forest Hills Eastern	57		95+
3	Grand Rapids South Christian	99		76
4	GR West Michigan Aviation	105		24

I swear, I didn’t plan those average places from the Lynn twynns.

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.00
2	10	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	3.39
3	11	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	4.82
4	9	Gracie Lynn	East Grand Rapids	5.00
5	9	Reese Lynn	East Grand Rapids	5.00
6	12	Sarah Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	7.48
7	11	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	8.53
8	11	Camille DeCola	Marshall	8.85
9	10	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	9.16
10	12	Ellory Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	10.02
11	12	Camryn Bodine	East Grand Rapids	11.44
12	12	Olivia Barabas	Wayland Union	11.57
13	11	Ashlyn Smith	Forest Hills Eastern	12.21
14	11	Sophia Lado	East Grand Rapids	12.52
15	11	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	13.74
16	9	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	15.93
17	10	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	16.80
18	11	Brooklyn Springvloed	Grand Rapids South Christian	18.71
19	12	Halle Overmire	Grand Rapids South Christian	20.73
20	12	Megan Leneman	Ionia	21.90
21	12	Abigail Petr	East Grand Rapids	22.21
22	12	Kayla Barna	GR West Michigan Aviation	23.66
23	12	Kate Laidlaw	Forest Hills Eastern	24.25
24	12	Belinda Vrielink	GR West Michigan Aviation	25.48
25	12	Madison Berning	Battle Creek Harper Creek	26.02
26	12	Neveah Helderop	Hopkins	27.01
27	12	Zariah Ozuzu	Marshall	27.22
28	10	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	28.56
29	11	Katie Behnke	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.79
30	9	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	29.54