2022 Regional Projections – Buckley Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Mason County Eastern	60	73	95+
2	Frankfort	65	27	95+
3	Pentwater	104		88
4	Leland	126		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Nathan Wing	Mason County Eastern	1.78
2	12	Skylar Werden	Frankfort	2.02
3	10	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	2.74
4	11	Adam Townsend	Frankfort	5.87
5	12	Jackson Kulawiak	Buckley	6.89
6	10	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	7.62
7	12	Chase Snell	Grand Traverse Academy	7.66
8	11	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	8.32
9	11	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	9.09
10	10	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	10.24
11	12	Joey Schwindt	Maple City Glen Lake	10.79
12	10	Kaleb Brown	Pentwater	12.11
13	11	Luke Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	13.05
14	11	Agustin Creamer	Leland	14.26
15	11	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	14.63
16	9	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.30
17	11	Mitchel Daniels	Pentwater	18.31
18	10	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	18.97
19	9	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	19.10
20	12	Trevor Moody	Frankfort	19.48
21	11	Sawyer Couturier	Leland	23.18
22	10	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	23.65
23	10	Ryan Grinage	Leland	24.65
24	12	Garret Ensor	Buckley	24.87
25	11	Clay Shoup	Mason County Eastern	26.58
26	9	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.74
27	10	Ron Hasenbank	Mason County Eastern	27.79
28	11	Aiden O’Dwyer	Frankfort	30.68
29	9	Wyatt Roberts	Pentwater	30.94
30	11	Logan DeFour	Leland	31.01

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Traverse Academy	75	52	95+
2	Buckley	80	27	95+
3	Frankfort	86	20	72
4	Leland	95		22
5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	102		6
6	Mason County Eastern	103		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.00
2	10	Ella Knudsen	Leland	2.42
3	12	Petra Foote	Grand Traverse Academy	2.68
4	10	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	4.66
5	9	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	7.55
6	12	Anna Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	7.94
7	9	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	8.30
8	12	Julia Jones	Grand Traverse Academy	8.83
9	10	Mya Denoyer	Leland	8.83
10	9	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	11.46
11	9	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	11.59
12	10	Ada Grubaugh	Frankfort	11.91
13	12	Bridgette Duncan	Leland	14.28
14	12	Ariana Rodriguez	Leland	15.96
15	11	Kendra Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.32
16	11	Olivia Wing	Mason County Eastern	16.92
17	9	Jennifer Kmiecik	Bear Lake-Onekama	17.79
18	12	Anna Wolfe	Frankfort	17.91
19	11	Paige Bell	Grand Traverse Academy	19.12
20	9	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	21.51
21	9	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	21.68
22	12	Anna VanDuinen	Pentwater	22.26
23	12	Meagan Lange	Forest Area	22.50
24	9	Addisen Harrand	Buckley	22.56
25	9	Sofia Alaimo	Frankfort	24.19
26	12	Audrey Smith	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.19
27	10	Kate May	Frankfort	27.85
28	10	Jessica Grant	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	28.04
29	11	Abby Kissling	Brethren	29.55
30	12	Milla Klomp	Buckley	29.88