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2022 Regional Projections – Buckley Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Mason County Eastern607395+
2Frankfort652795+
3Pentwater10488
4Leland1269

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Nathan WingMason County Eastern1.78
212Skylar WerdenFrankfort2.02
310Mason SinkeBear Lake-Onekama2.74
411Adam TownsendFrankfort5.87
512Jackson KulawiakBuckley6.89
610Colebrook SutherlandMaple City Glen Lake7.62
712Chase SnellGrand Traverse Academy7.66
811Kaden ForwardBear Lake-Onekama8.32
911Abe VanDuinenPentwater9.09
1010Alex TyndallMason County Eastern10.24
1112Joey SchwindtMaple City Glen Lake10.79
1210Kaleb BrownPentwater12.11
1311Luke NiedzielskiMason County Eastern13.05
1411Agustin CreamerLeland14.26
1511Peter HybzaMason County Eastern14.63
169Oliver MitchellLake Leelanau St. Mary16.30
1711Mitchel DanielsPentwater18.31
1810Carroll RobothamFrankfort18.97
199Keith CromptonFrankfort19.10
2012Trevor MoodyFrankfort19.48
2111Sawyer CouturierLeland23.18
2210Henry MalburgMason County Eastern23.65
2310Ryan GrinageLeland24.65
2412Garret EnsorBuckley24.87
2511Clay ShoupMason County Eastern26.58
269Cody CouturierLake Leelanau St. Mary27.74
2710Ron HasenbankMason County Eastern27.79
2811Aiden O’DwyerFrankfort30.68
299Wyatt RobertsPentwater30.94
3011Logan DeFourLeland31.01

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Grand Traverse Academy755295+
2Buckley802795+
3Frankfort862072
4Leland9522
5Lake Leelanau St. Mary1026
6Mason County Eastern1039

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Aiden HarrandBuckley1.00
210Ella KnudsenLeland2.42
312Petra FooteGrand Traverse Academy2.68
410Lucy ShoupMason County Eastern4.66
59Brooklynn FrazeeBuckley7.55
612Anna MitchellLake Leelanau St. Mary7.94
79Lauren NiedzielskiMason County Eastern8.30
812Julia JonesGrand Traverse Academy8.83
910Mya DenoyerLeland8.83
109Addison ChownykFrankfort11.46
119Shenoah CollierGrand Traverse Academy11.59
1210Ada GrubaughFrankfort11.91
1312Bridgette DuncanLeland14.28
1412Ariana RodriguezLeland15.96
1511Kendra CouturierLake Leelanau St. Mary16.32
1611Olivia WingMason County Eastern16.92
179Jennifer KmiecikBear Lake-Onekama17.79
1812Anna WolfeFrankfort17.91
1911Paige BellGrand Traverse Academy19.12
209Natalie BrownBear Lake-Onekama21.51
219Kinsey PeerBuckley21.68
2212Anna VanDuinenPentwater22.26
2312Meagan LangeForest Area22.50
249Addisen HarrandBuckley22.56
259Sofia AlaimoFrankfort24.19
2612Audrey SmithLake Leelanau St. Mary27.19
2710Kate MayFrankfort27.85
2810Jessica GrantLake Leelanau St. Mary28.04
2911Abby KisslingBrethren29.55
3012Milla KlompBuckley29.88

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