Uncategorized

2022 Regional Projections – Wagener Park Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Brown City846195+
2Ubly923287
3Mayville10274
4Harbor Beach11816
5Dryden12022
6Kingston1365

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Ethan GreenKingston2.07
211Aiden FitchettDryden2.27
311Utah GusaUbly3.56
49Brody KargHarbor Beach3.94
512John SchoenCapac5.06
611Connor RouseGenesee7.88
712Easton JagerBrown City9.77
810Isaac BignallUnionville-Sebewaing10.05
910Matthew PasiakHarbor Beach10.46
1011Gavin HelgesonMayville12.20
1110Joel EnosMayville12.22
1212Devin DudleyBrown City14.25
1310Turlough BennettMarlette14.30
1411Christopher GonzalesMayville14.94
1512Wynn BlakeBrown City15.84
1611Landon DekoskiUbly16.58
1712Andrew VogelUbly18.42
1810Colin BeckDeckerville21.91
1911Isaiah HeltonKingston22.29
209Carson BurgessBrown City22.50
2110Noah HallDryden22.88
229Kole FranzelMayville23.96
239Nicholas RaylKingston24.06
2411Ben GuraNew Life Christian Academy27.12
2511Jacob BulgrienHarbor Beach27.60
2612Brandon KohlerBrown City27.85
279Trevor KlatyCarsonville-Port Sanilac28.69
289Guy KnoblockUbly28.83
2911Ethan WorkmanBrown City30.17
309William SaleDryden30.33

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Kingston534895+
2Unionville-Sebewaing553795+
3Ubly591595+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Isabella YeomanGenesee1.62
212Maze GusaUbly2.88
312Gabriella ReinboldUnionville-Sebewaing4.48
49Lilah KileyKingston4.72
510Kyra BeemerBrown City5.57
612Sophia SanfordDeckerville6.20
710Reece WrubleHarbor Beach6.81
811Lily LemanskiMarlette8.03
910Meeghan FlikkieKingston10.49
1011Alberta ReinboldUnionville-Sebewaing10.64
1111Gracy WalkerKingston11.20
1211Erica KleeUbly12.86
1312Abigail GuzaUbly13.33
149Katie SweeneyUbly14.06
159Molly WalkerKingston14.75
1610Cambree TormaUnionville-Sebewaing15.04
1710Brooke SonnenbergGenesee Christian Academy16.58
1812Lauren GreenUnionville-Sebewaing18.71
1910Sarah NimtzUnionville-Sebewaing18.72
2011Audrey NapolitanoDryden20.81
2111Shelby BowersOwendale-Gagetown22.41
2211Lily FinniganDryden22.87
2312Olivia PeterUnionville-Sebewaing23.40
2410Julia RogersNew Life Christian Academy23.48
259Alexandra FindlayMarlette25.19
2611Zoe Van RijnKingston26.70
2712Sienna KerrMayville26.70
2811Rhiannon VarinUnionville-Sebewaing27.92
2912Leah TriggerDeckerville30.73
3012Isabella HinojosaMarlette32.81

1 thought on “2022 Regional Projections – Wagener Park Regional”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s