2022 Regional Projections – Wagener Park Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Brown City	84	61	95+
2	Ubly	92	32	87
3	Mayville	102		74
4	Harbor Beach	118		16
5	Dryden	120		22
6	Kingston	136		5

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ethan Green	Kingston	2.07
2	11	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	2.27
3	11	Utah Gusa	Ubly	3.56
4	9	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	3.94
5	12	John Schoen	Capac	5.06
6	11	Connor Rouse	Genesee	7.88
7	12	Easton Jager	Brown City	9.77
8	10	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	10.05
9	10	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	10.46
10	11	Gavin Helgeson	Mayville	12.20
11	10	Joel Enos	Mayville	12.22
12	12	Devin Dudley	Brown City	14.25
13	10	Turlough Bennett	Marlette	14.30
14	11	Christopher Gonzales	Mayville	14.94
15	12	Wynn Blake	Brown City	15.84
16	11	Landon Dekoski	Ubly	16.58
17	12	Andrew Vogel	Ubly	18.42
18	10	Colin Beck	Deckerville	21.91
19	11	Isaiah Helton	Kingston	22.29
20	9	Carson Burgess	Brown City	22.50
21	10	Noah Hall	Dryden	22.88
22	9	Kole Franzel	Mayville	23.96
23	9	Nicholas Rayl	Kingston	24.06
24	11	Ben Gura	New Life Christian Academy	27.12
25	11	Jacob Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	27.60
26	12	Brandon Kohler	Brown City	27.85
27	9	Trevor Klaty	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	28.69
28	9	Guy Knoblock	Ubly	28.83
29	11	Ethan Workman	Brown City	30.17
30	9	William Sale	Dryden	30.33

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kingston	53	48	95+
2	Unionville-Sebewaing	55	37	95+
3	Ubly	59	15	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	1.62
2	12	Maze Gusa	Ubly	2.88
3	12	Gabriella Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	4.48
4	9	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	4.72
5	10	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	5.57
6	12	Sophia Sanford	Deckerville	6.20
7	10	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	6.81
8	11	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	8.03
9	10	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	10.49
10	11	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	10.64
11	11	Gracy Walker	Kingston	11.20
12	11	Erica Klee	Ubly	12.86
13	12	Abigail Guza	Ubly	13.33
14	9	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	14.06
15	9	Molly Walker	Kingston	14.75
16	10	Cambree Torma	Unionville-Sebewaing	15.04
17	10	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	16.58
18	12	Lauren Green	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.71
19	10	Sarah Nimtz	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.72
20	11	Audrey Napolitano	Dryden	20.81
21	11	Shelby Bowers	Owendale-Gagetown	22.41
22	11	Lily Finnigan	Dryden	22.87
23	12	Olivia Peter	Unionville-Sebewaing	23.40
24	10	Julia Rogers	New Life Christian Academy	23.48
25	9	Alexandra Findlay	Marlette	25.19
26	11	Zoe Van Rijn	Kingston	26.70
27	12	Sienna Kerr	Mayville	26.70
28	11	Rhiannon Varin	Unionville-Sebewaing	27.92
29	12	Leah Trigger	Deckerville	30.73
30	12	Isabella Hinojosa	Marlette	32.81