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2022 Regional Projections – Chippewa Hills Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Breckenridge528295+
2Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary571895+
3Beal City7795+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Dakota DykhuisMontabella1.12
211Owen PattonVestaburg1.88
311Sawyer StonemanBreckenridge3.17
412Owen GrossBeal City4.62
510Rodney IamurriSaginaw Nouvel5.12
611Isaac HummBreckenridge5.91
711Carter FollettMerrill8.07
811Jeffery HardenSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary8.67
911Jaden OstranderBreckenridge8.97
109Sean BernardHale11.12
1110Camden FagerSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary12.59
1212Jesse JonesMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart12.64
1312James WilsonMontabella12.70
1412Silas SchultzSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary13.74
1510Sean O’GradySaginaw Nouvel14.27
1610Logan DudleyColeman17.03
1711Elijah KimbelMcBain Northern Michigan Christian17.73
189Aiden SpragueBeal City18.50
1912Caleb MunsonSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary20.59
2010Aimon HummBreckenridge20.86
2112Colin DeKamMcBain Northern Michigan Christian22.60
229Jordan WeberBeal City23.35
2310Matthew BannickSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary24.57
2412Cole AultmanColeman25.95
2510Austin GrossBeal City26.38
269Isaiah GreenacreMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart27.39
279Paxton DowningHale27.42
2812Caleb NeedhamSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary27.76
299Summer YuanSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary28.21
3010Matthew FirmanFarwell30.98

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Farwell598395+
2Breckenridge671795+
3Beal City7995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Isabelle EppertFarwell1.74
211Amelia ThompsonBig Rapids Crossroads Academy1.95
312Kaylee LockeBeal City2.91
412Autumn WakefieldSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary6.32
511Jacqueline MortonMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart6.51
69Ally SchmitzBreckenridge6.65
712Kaylee AultmanColeman7.19
89Kaya RoseMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart8.32
912Hadyn ArmstrongBeal City9.12
1010Abigail DavisVestaburg9.74
1112Raini SponsellerFarwell10.50
1210Avery WestallBreckenridge10.75
1312Remi SponsellerFarwell13.40
1411Tori MostBreckenridge15.33
1510Danica AldrichBreckenridge15.46
1610Ivy FrischFarwell18.08
1710Lilly LeppertBeal City18.12
1810Lauryn LicariBeal City18.21
1912Lily DejaMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart18.73
2010Julia SilvaFarwell19.25
2110Jessica PenrodVestaburg19.54
2210Sydney LeslieSaginaw Nouvel22.28
2310Areyel WeissBreckenridge24.19
249Laura BigardMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart24.25
2510Nataly VineBreckenridge25.71
2610Addyson ThormeierFarwell25.92
2710Mickiah AllbeeVestaburg26.55
2812Madeline MillerSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary31.17
2911Sarah KoberSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary31.44
309Evalynne BellFarwell32.06

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Hart3795+95+
2Reed City7595+
3Benzie Central8995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Hunter JonesBenzie Central1.00
212Clayton AckleyHart2.03
312Wyatt DeanHart4.18
412Jake O’NeilRemus Chippewa Hills4.62
512Seth AckleyHart5.82
610August RohdeReed City6.12
712Pol MolinsBenzie Central6.41
811Ryan AllenReed City8.47
911Anthony KiaunisReed City8.70
1010Max StittHart11.01
1112Dade AllenBenzie Central11.30
1211Paxton HallLake City13.84
1310Coleson CruzanWhite Cloud14.13
1412Caleb BitelyHart14.66
1511Jack O’DonnellManistee15.84
1612Logan PatrickManton16.53
1712Ty KailingReed City17.11
1811Claydon InglerightMcBain19.72
1911Tyler ViningMorley-Stanwood20.40
2012Enzo Gagliardi RamalhoLake City21.30
2112Nathan CiolkWhite Cloud22.02
2211Tanner SoelbergShelby22.04
2312Josef BromleyHart22.80
2412Easton Vander ZwaagHart23.03
2512Gavin ShireyMason County Central24.32
2611Luke SentersManistee25.66
2712Nolan MoffitManton26.03
289Robert DykhouseManton26.49
2911Matthew BrownellRemus Chippewa Hills27.33
3011Carson FoondleWhite Cloud30.61

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Hart4095+95+
2Benzie Central6695+
3Remus Chippewa Hills11095+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Jessica JazwinskiHart1.00
211Alyson EnnsHart2.01
311Mylie KellyBenzie Central3.05
411Miranda McNeilMorley-Stanwood4.00
511Cecilia PostmaManistee5.08
611Ava HollandsworthRemus Chippewa Hills7.43
712Emma SoelbergShelby8.08
810Lexie Beth NienhuisHart8.47
99Quinn HatfieldRemus Chippewa Hills8.66
1010Nora GrossnickleBenzie Central9.75
1112Bianca DeloguBenzie Central10.43
1212Nora SmoesReed City11.83
1312Chloe ColtonManton14.18
149Kenai KokxHart14.92
1512Savanna OwensHart15.17
1612Hadley SaylorManton16.47
1712Abigail PrettyHart16.49
1810Brooklyn CarterHart18.84
1910Ava IversonBenzie Central19.86
2012Elizabeth RiglingLeroy Pine River21.10
2110Clara SmoesReed City22.01
2211Cambrie LawrenceBenzie Central22.94
2310Megan GottschallLake City23.26
2410Chelsi EisengaMcBain23.97
2512Claire JohnstonMorley-Stanwood25.83
2610Augusta BowmanRemus Chippewa Hills26.79
2712Rylee CohoonLake City29.96
289Georgia HaagManistee30.92
2911Haylee LivermoreRemus Chippewa Hills31.81
3010Shauna McLeanMcBain32.07

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Petoskey737095+
2Sparta801995+
3Fremont881195+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Gregory JanesakSparta1.14
211Nolan NixonCadillac2.94
311Shane IzzardPetoskey3.49
412Andre RichmondWhitehall4.04
512Owen WesterkampBig Rapids4.74
612Carter McIlroyWhitehall5.07
712Ben KnuthBig Rapids9.71
89Owen MetzgerSparta9.86
911Sean PettisFremont9.94
1012Noah MomberSparta11.24
1111Brodie DelamaterGrant11.80
1211Jose FloresLudington12.41
1311Gabe OutmanCadillac14.06
1410Peyton RuelMuskegon Oakridge14.97
1510Carter ShermanFremont15.22
1611Dylan OdenbachPetoskey17.69
1711Tommy FarleyPetoskey17.93
1812Ramon HernandezHoward City-Tri County18.19
1911Jack LindwallPetoskey18.58
2011John ChristensenFremont18.63
2111Trey KesonLudington21.51
2210Parker FettigPetoskey21.93
2312Henrik QuistFremont22.15
2410Stewart WatersWhitehall24.96
2512Gavin TownerPetoskey26.15
269Chase LoweryFremont26.47
270Carson WoodSparta26.67
2811Gavin RykseHoward City-Tri County26.81
299Zahar RushPetoskey27.22
3012Logan AmesGaylord33.35

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Petoskey774095+
2Ludington812878
3Sparta842369
4Cadillac88953

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111CamBrie CoreyPetoskey1.56
212Emma JanesakSparta1.76
310Madeline LoePetoskey3.09
49Katie BerkshireGaylord4.03
511Nora O’LearyPetoskey6.02
69Linnea PaigeFremont7.84
710Summer BrowerLudington8.25
89Brooklynn BrownCadillac8.38
911Remington ArneyNewaygo9.11
1011Kennedi WoodSparta10.31
1110Nadia GriersonLudington11.49
1212Ariana TreatWhitehall11.85
1312Madyson OudbierSparta12.74
149Christina TheisLudington13.20
1512Eleanor CoolCadillac13.48
1612Regan HillCadillac15.31
179Lily SargentGaylord17.19
1810Skylee AmesGaylord17.40
1911Marisa MazzaCadillac22.08
2010Adalyn BrittonWhitehall22.89
2110Autumn BrowerLudington23.42
2212Mary WebbKingsley25.13
2311Raegan RuelMuskegon Oakridge26.71
2412Allison TateWhitehall26.79
2511Merceydez PattonMuskegon Oakridge26.84
2610Fiona ScottPetoskey28.09
279Anna PakeHoward City-Tri County29.74
2811Olivia AndersenLudington29.90
2912Annie KlineLudington30.73
3011Oliviah MalloyBig Rapids30.91

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