2022 Regional Projections – Chippewa Hills Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Breckenridge	52	82	95+
2	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	57	18	95+
3	Beal City	77		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Dakota Dykhuis	Montabella	1.12
2	11	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	1.88
3	11	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	3.17
4	12	Owen Gross	Beal City	4.62
5	10	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	5.12
6	11	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	5.91
7	11	Carter Follett	Merrill	8.07
8	11	Jeffery Harden	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	8.67
9	11	Jaden Ostrander	Breckenridge	8.97
10	9	Sean Bernard	Hale	11.12
11	10	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	12.59
12	12	Jesse Jones	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	12.64
13	12	James Wilson	Montabella	12.70
14	12	Silas Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	13.74
15	10	Sean O’Grady	Saginaw Nouvel	14.27
16	10	Logan Dudley	Coleman	17.03
17	11	Elijah Kimbel	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	17.73
18	9	Aiden Sprague	Beal City	18.50
19	12	Caleb Munson	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	20.59
20	10	Aimon Humm	Breckenridge	20.86
21	12	Colin DeKam	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	22.60
22	9	Jordan Weber	Beal City	23.35
23	10	Matthew Bannick	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	24.57
24	12	Cole Aultman	Coleman	25.95
25	10	Austin Gross	Beal City	26.38
26	9	Isaiah Greenacre	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	27.39
27	9	Paxton Downing	Hale	27.42
28	12	Caleb Needham	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	27.76
29	9	Summer Yuan	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	28.21
30	10	Matthew Firman	Farwell	30.98

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Farwell	59	83	95+
2	Breckenridge	67	17	95+
3	Beal City	79		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	1.74
2	11	Amelia Thompson	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	1.95
3	12	Kaylee Locke	Beal City	2.91
4	12	Autumn Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	6.32
5	11	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	6.51
6	9	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	6.65
7	12	Kaylee Aultman	Coleman	7.19
8	9	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	8.32
9	12	Hadyn Armstrong	Beal City	9.12
10	10	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	9.74
11	12	Raini Sponseller	Farwell	10.50
12	10	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	10.75
13	12	Remi Sponseller	Farwell	13.40
14	11	Tori Most	Breckenridge	15.33
15	10	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	15.46
16	10	Ivy Frisch	Farwell	18.08
17	10	Lilly Leppert	Beal City	18.12
18	10	Lauryn Licari	Beal City	18.21
19	12	Lily Deja	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	18.73
20	10	Julia Silva	Farwell	19.25
21	10	Jessica Penrod	Vestaburg	19.54
22	10	Sydney Leslie	Saginaw Nouvel	22.28
23	10	Areyel Weiss	Breckenridge	24.19
24	9	Laura Bigard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	24.25
25	10	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	25.71
26	10	Addyson Thormeier	Farwell	25.92
27	10	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	26.55
28	12	Madeline Miller	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	31.17
29	11	Sarah Kober	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	31.44
30	9	Evalynne Bell	Farwell	32.06

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Hart	37	95+	95+
2	Reed City	75		95+
3	Benzie Central	89		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Jones	Benzie Central	1.00
2	12	Clayton Ackley	Hart	2.03
3	12	Wyatt Dean	Hart	4.18
4	12	Jake O’Neil	Remus Chippewa Hills	4.62
5	12	Seth Ackley	Hart	5.82
6	10	August Rohde	Reed City	6.12
7	12	Pol Molins	Benzie Central	6.41
8	11	Ryan Allen	Reed City	8.47
9	11	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	8.70
10	10	Max Stitt	Hart	11.01
11	12	Dade Allen	Benzie Central	11.30
12	11	Paxton Hall	Lake City	13.84
13	10	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	14.13
14	12	Caleb Bitely	Hart	14.66
15	11	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	15.84
16	12	Logan Patrick	Manton	16.53
17	12	Ty Kailing	Reed City	17.11
18	11	Claydon Ingleright	McBain	19.72
19	11	Tyler Vining	Morley-Stanwood	20.40
20	12	Enzo Gagliardi Ramalho	Lake City	21.30
21	12	Nathan Ciolk	White Cloud	22.02
22	11	Tanner Soelberg	Shelby	22.04
23	12	Josef Bromley	Hart	22.80
24	12	Easton Vander Zwaag	Hart	23.03
25	12	Gavin Shirey	Mason County Central	24.32
26	11	Luke Senters	Manistee	25.66
27	12	Nolan Moffit	Manton	26.03
28	9	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	26.49
29	11	Matthew Brownell	Remus Chippewa Hills	27.33
30	11	Carson Foondle	White Cloud	30.61

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Hart	40	95+	95+
2	Benzie Central	66		95+
3	Remus Chippewa Hills	110		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.00
2	11	Alyson Enns	Hart	2.01
3	11	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	3.05
4	11	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	4.00
5	11	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	5.08
6	11	Ava Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	7.43
7	12	Emma Soelberg	Shelby	8.08
8	10	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	8.47
9	9	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.66
10	10	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	9.75
11	12	Bianca Delogu	Benzie Central	10.43
12	12	Nora Smoes	Reed City	11.83
13	12	Chloe Colton	Manton	14.18
14	9	Kenai Kokx	Hart	14.92
15	12	Savanna Owens	Hart	15.17
16	12	Hadley Saylor	Manton	16.47
17	12	Abigail Pretty	Hart	16.49
18	10	Brooklyn Carter	Hart	18.84
19	10	Ava Iverson	Benzie Central	19.86
20	12	Elizabeth Rigling	Leroy Pine River	21.10
21	10	Clara Smoes	Reed City	22.01
22	11	Cambrie Lawrence	Benzie Central	22.94
23	10	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	23.26
24	10	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	23.97
25	12	Claire Johnston	Morley-Stanwood	25.83
26	10	Augusta Bowman	Remus Chippewa Hills	26.79
27	12	Rylee Cohoon	Lake City	29.96
28	9	Georgia Haag	Manistee	30.92
29	11	Haylee Livermore	Remus Chippewa Hills	31.81
30	10	Shauna McLean	McBain	32.07

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Petoskey	73	70	95+
2	Sparta	80	19	95+
3	Fremont	88	11	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	1.14
2	11	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	2.94
3	11	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	3.49
4	12	Andre Richmond	Whitehall	4.04
5	12	Owen Westerkamp	Big Rapids	4.74
6	12	Carter McIlroy	Whitehall	5.07
7	12	Ben Knuth	Big Rapids	9.71
8	9	Owen Metzger	Sparta	9.86
9	11	Sean Pettis	Fremont	9.94
10	12	Noah Momber	Sparta	11.24
11	11	Brodie Delamater	Grant	11.80
12	11	Jose Flores	Ludington	12.41
13	11	Gabe Outman	Cadillac	14.06
14	10	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	14.97
15	10	Carter Sherman	Fremont	15.22
16	11	Dylan Odenbach	Petoskey	17.69
17	11	Tommy Farley	Petoskey	17.93
18	12	Ramon Hernandez	Howard City-Tri County	18.19
19	11	Jack Lindwall	Petoskey	18.58
20	11	John Christensen	Fremont	18.63
21	11	Trey Keson	Ludington	21.51
22	10	Parker Fettig	Petoskey	21.93
23	12	Henrik Quist	Fremont	22.15
24	10	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	24.96
25	12	Gavin Towner	Petoskey	26.15
26	9	Chase Lowery	Fremont	26.47
27	0	Carson Wood	Sparta	26.67
28	11	Gavin Rykse	Howard City-Tri County	26.81
29	9	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	27.22
30	12	Logan Ames	Gaylord	33.35

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Petoskey	77	40	95+
2	Ludington	81	28	78
3	Sparta	84	23	69
4	Cadillac	88	9	53

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	1.56
2	12	Emma Janesak	Sparta	1.76
3	10	Madeline Loe	Petoskey	3.09
4	9	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	4.03
5	11	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	6.02
6	9	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.84
7	10	Summer Brower	Ludington	8.25
8	9	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	8.38
9	11	Remington Arney	Newaygo	9.11
10	11	Kennedi Wood	Sparta	10.31
11	10	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	11.49
12	12	Ariana Treat	Whitehall	11.85
13	12	Madyson Oudbier	Sparta	12.74
14	9	Christina Theis	Ludington	13.20
15	12	Eleanor Cool	Cadillac	13.48
16	12	Regan Hill	Cadillac	15.31
17	9	Lily Sargent	Gaylord	17.19
18	10	Skylee Ames	Gaylord	17.40
19	11	Marisa Mazza	Cadillac	22.08
20	10	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	22.89
21	10	Autumn Brower	Ludington	23.42
22	12	Mary Webb	Kingsley	25.13
23	11	Raegan Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	26.71
24	12	Allison Tate	Whitehall	26.79
25	11	Merceydez Patton	Muskegon Oakridge	26.84
26	10	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	28.09
27	9	Anna Pake	Howard City-Tri County	29.74
28	11	Olivia Andersen	Ludington	29.90
29	12	Annie Kline	Ludington	30.73
30	11	Oliviah Malloy	Big Rapids	30.91