2022 Regional Projections – Shepherd Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City Central	32	95+	95+
2	Saginaw Heritage	94		95+
3	East Lansing	122		60
4	Okemos	135		23
5	Bay City Western	140		9
6	Grand Ledge	143		10

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonah Hochstetler	Traverse City West	1.32
2	12	Joe Muha	Traverse City Central	2.17
3	12	Micah Bauer	Traverse City Central	3.22
4	11	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	4.00
5	11	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	4.84
6	11	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West	6.86
7	11	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	6.87
8	12	Jett Reimers	Traverse City Central	9.27
9	12	Elijah Allen	Alpena	9.90
10	12	Gabriel Trevino	Saginaw Heritage	9.91
11	11	Alex Durocher	Traverse City Central	10.75
12	11	Colin MacGregor	H.H. Dow	14.87
13	10	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	15.61
14	12	Theodore Lange	Saginaw Heritage	16.28
15	11	Eden Lampi	East Lansing	17.53
16	12	Sam Elder	Grand Ledge	18.22
17	9	Ian Morgan	Okemos	19.49
18	12	Hunter Hitzelberger	Alpena	19.68
19	12	Gabe Benavides	East Lansing	20.82
20	12	Daniel Ebel	Bay City Western	22.15
21	11	Kaiden Morey	Traverse City Central	22.47
22	10	Elijah Hutchinson	Grand Ledge	23.09
23	12	Raine Webley	Saginaw Heritage	23.70
24	11	Sam King	Traverse City West	24.44
25	11	Miles Killips	Bay City Western	27.27
26	12	Sam Booth	East Lansing	27.68
27	12	Ben Scott	H.H. Dow	27.97
28	11	Michael Cyrul	East Lansing	28.92
29	10	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	29.08
30	11	Gurshaan Sidhu	Okemos	30.95

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Okemos	71	51	95+
2	Traverse City West	73	48	95+
3	H.H. Dow	104		46
4	Traverse City Central	106		35
5	Bay City Western	113		18

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Taylor Pangburn	Grand Ledge	2.01
2	10	Victoria Garces	H.H. Dow	2.05
3	10	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	4.26
4	9	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	5.74
5	11	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	5.78
6	12	Emma Netzel	Holt	6.29
7	10	Lauren Walker	Holt	7.15
8	11	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow	7.81
9	11	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	9.06
10	11	Lily Salazar	Okemos	9.59
11	12	Ambria Nagel	Bay City Western	11.93
12	10	Sydney Roberts	H.H. Dow	13.33
13	9	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	14.04
14	11	Nicole Mays	Okemos	14.38
15	9	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	17.33
16	11	Emma Dickins	Alpena	18.12
17	9	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos	19.24
18	9	Peyton Tucker	Traverse City West	19.24
19	11	Ava King	Traverse City West	20.63
20	11	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	20.84
21	9	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	20.93
22	10	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	21.35
23	9	Regan Feeley	Traverse City Central	22.64
24	10	Abby Minnick	East Lansing	25.40
25	10	Ellie Schenkelberger	Traverse City Central	25.58
26	9	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	26.19
27	12	Jaana Glasmacher	Okemos	27.43
28	12	Erica Slocum	Bay City Western	27.81
29	12	Kathleen Venhuizen	Traverse City Central	28.00
30	9	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West	28.72

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Freeland	62	95+	95+
2	Clio	91		95
3	Frankenmuth	99		59
4	Flint Powers Catholic	105		25
5	Alma	108		20

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.24
2	12	Braydon Honsinger	Freeland	1.99
3	11	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	3.53
4	9	Thomas Larson	Alma	4.54
5	10	Seth Mead	Gladwin	5.47
6	11	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	6.07
7	10	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	6.78
8	11	Andrew Yax	Clio	8.54
9	12	Tyler Heath	Clio	8.94
10	12	Aidan Lobsinger	Flint Powers Catholic	12.48
11	10	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	12.48
12	9	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	13.47
13	11	Caleb Palmreuter	Gladwin	13.60
14	12	Braden Klein	Freeland	13.86
15	10	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	16.06
16	11	Ali Kudmani	Alma	18.02
17	9	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	18.03
18	10	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	19.28
19	10	Camden McLeod	Freeland	20.32
20	12	Bryce Husen	Birch Run	20.93
21	12	Grant Conger	Frankenmuth	21.17
22	9	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	21.84
23	10	Bodie Heiss	Alma	22.18
24	11	Jack Rumptz	Birch Run	23.58
25	10	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	25.07
26	9	Luca Lebron	Alma	25.16
27	10	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	27.35
28	10	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	28.01
29	11	Peter Huey	Flint Powers Catholic	29.42
30	9	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	30.88

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Alma	49	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	66		95+
3	Shepherd	79		66
4	Freeland	83		35

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	1.00
2	10	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	2.14
3	9	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	3.99
4	12	Ariel Warner	Shepherd	4.42
5	10	Joy Evans	Alma	4.83
6	10	Karie Keefer	Freeland	7.23
7	9	Jada Prescott	Freeland	8.61
8	10	Jenna Overla	Alma	8.85
9	11	Hannah Raglin	Alma	10.89
10	12	Elle Himebaugh	Shepherd	10.91
11	11	Aubrey Keeler	Clio	11.09
12	12	Alexcis Parker	Flint Powers Catholic	12.07
13	11	Paige Kloha	Freeland	13.50
14	11	Ava Boggs	Flint Kearsley	15.82
15	9	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	16.09
16	9	Samantha Brown	Clio	16.42
17	9	Gabby Cleveland	Frankenmuth	16.67
18	9	Cessaly Fichtner	Freeland	19.45
19	12	Jolie Fisher	Shepherd	20.61
20	12	Carley Lynch	Shepherd	20.92
21	9	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	21.29
22	10	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	22.77
23	10	Vivian Wickes	Alma	23.99
24	12	Jordan Cleveland	Alma	25.74
25	10	Gracie Warner	Shepherd	26.25
26	12	McKenzie Betts	Alma	27.19
27	10	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	27.80
28	11	Destiny Wasoski	Bay City John Glenn	28.50
29	10	Clare Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	28.77
30	9	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	29.04

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Louis	29	95+	95+
2	Caro	59		95+
3	Sanford-Meridian	61		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ben March	St. Louis	1.25
2	12	Connor Stefanovsky	Caro	1.98
3	11	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	3.00
4	10	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	3.89
5	12	Jonah Shephard	Sanford-Meridian	6.01
6	12	Dylan Marr	St. Louis	6.26
7	10	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	6.97
8	10	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	8.13
9	9	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	9.22
10	10	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	10.32
11	10	Jacob Moore	Caro	10.37
12	9	Hayden Shattuck	St. Louis	12.81
13	9	Wesley Haines	Reese	15.06
14	11	Elliot Noyes	Sanford-Meridian	15.74
15	9	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	17.72
16	11	Nicholas Tallman	Vassar	18.76
17	11	Ethan Wetzel	Sanford-Meridian	19.85
18	10	Drew LaFave	Sanford-Meridian	20.46
19	12	Wyatt Wojdula	Reese	20.47
20	9	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	21.45
21	11	Caleb Geiger	Bad Axe	21.49
22	11	Matthew Johnston	Hemlock	22.69
23	9	Jackson Fulton	Caro	23.03
24	11	Ty Johnson	Otisville LakeVille	23.97
25	10	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	24.59
26	11	Donythyn Deitrick	Sanford-Meridian	25.49
27	10	Ian Weldon	Reese	27.96
28	11	Konnor Olson	Pigeon-Laker	28.13
29	11	Jack Turner	Pigeon-Laker	29.07
30	10	Evan Langmaid	Caro	29.60

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Caro	33	95+	95+
2	St. Louis	73		95+
3	Sandusky	75		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ellymae McCoy	Reese	1.25
2	11	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	2.02
3	10	Kaya Vrable	Caro	3.01
4	11	Paige Herron	Caro	5.19
5	11	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	5.73
6	12	Ashley Shindorf	Vassar	6.37
7	11	Faith Swenor	Caro	7.53
8	12	Lauren Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	7.97
9	12	Allysen Jansen	Sandusky	9.42
10	11	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	10.89
11	10	Makenzie Kreger	Sandusky	11.24
12	12	Elizabeth Smith	Sanford-Meridian	12.18
14	11	Rachael Walch	Caro	13.59
13	10	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	13.59
15	11	Alexa Long	Caro	14.30
16	10	Abby Dice	St. Louis	15.80
17	9	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	16.37
18	11	Emma Lang	Bad Axe	17.93
19	12	Brookelynn Jansen	Sandusky	20.00
20	11	Diana Cortes	Cass City	20.26
21	9	Braylee Rice	Reese	22.51
22	9	Carla Cortes	Cass City	23.17
23	11	Olivia Urban	Otisville LakeVille	23.23
24	12	Laney Pestrue	St. Louis	25.37
25	11	Emma Haynes	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	25.68
26	11	Natalie Lemert	St. Louis	26.40
27	12	Payton Kuhn	St. Louis	27.15
28	11	Faith Hooper	Pigeon-Laker	27.69
29	9	Aeralyn Leonard	St. Louis	30.06
30	9	Lexi Wegner	Caro	30.26