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2022 Regional Projections – Shepherd Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Traverse City Central3295+95+
2Saginaw Heritage9495+
3East Lansing12260
4Okemos13523
5Bay City Western1409
6Grand Ledge14310

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Jonah HochstetlerTraverse City West1.32
212Joe MuhaTraverse City Central2.17
312Micah BauerTraverse City Central3.22
411Kenny LewisSaginaw Heritage4.00
511Noah SelvarajBay City Western4.84
611Willem DeGoodTraverse City West6.86
711Zack TruszkowskiTraverse City Central6.87
812Jett ReimersTraverse City Central9.27
912Elijah AllenAlpena9.90
1012Gabriel TrevinoSaginaw Heritage9.91
1111Alex DurocherTraverse City Central10.75
1211Colin MacGregorH.H. Dow14.87
1310Nathan WilkinsonOkemos15.61
1412Theodore LangeSaginaw Heritage16.28
1511Eden LampiEast Lansing17.53
1612Sam ElderGrand Ledge18.22
179Ian MorganOkemos19.49
1812Hunter HitzelbergerAlpena19.68
1912Gabe BenavidesEast Lansing20.82
2012Daniel EbelBay City Western22.15
2111Kaiden MoreyTraverse City Central22.47
2210Elijah HutchinsonGrand Ledge23.09
2312Raine WebleySaginaw Heritage23.70
2411Sam KingTraverse City West24.44
2511Miles KillipsBay City Western27.27
2612Sam BoothEast Lansing27.68
2712Ben ScottH.H. Dow27.97
2811Michael CyrulEast Lansing28.92
2910Nathan BeemerOkemos29.08
3011Gurshaan SidhuOkemos30.95

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Okemos715195+
2Traverse City West734895+
3H.H. Dow10446
4Traverse City Central10635
5Bay City Western11318

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Taylor PangburnGrand Ledge2.01
210Victoria GarcesH.H. Dow2.05
310Isabelle BeckerBay City Western4.26
49Abby VeitTraverse City West5.74
511Shannon GillahanOkemos5.78
612Emma NetzelHolt6.29
710Lauren WalkerHolt7.15
811Katie WatkinsH.H. Dow7.81
911Alexis BallTraverse City Central9.06
1011Lily SalazarOkemos9.59
1112Ambria NagelBay City Western11.93
1210Sydney RobertsH.H. Dow13.33
139Bailey WenzlickTraverse City West14.04
1411Nicole MaysOkemos14.38
159Aviana SkinnerGrand Ledge17.33
1611Emma DickinsAlpena18.12
179Elizabeth SchaferOkemos19.24
189Peyton TuckerTraverse City West19.24
1911Ava KingTraverse City West20.63
2011Ella KirkwoodTraverse City Central20.84
219Reese SmithTraverse City West20.93
2210Alyssa FoucheyTraverse City West21.35
239Regan FeeleyTraverse City Central22.64
2410Abby MinnickEast Lansing25.40
2510Ellie SchenkelbergerTraverse City Central25.58
269Fiona WhitmyerOkemos26.19
2712Jaana GlasmacherOkemos27.43
2812Erica SlocumBay City Western27.81
2912Kathleen VenhuizenTraverse City Central28.00
309Payton LambTraverse City West28.72

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Freeland6295+95+
2Clio9195
3Frankenmuth9959
4Flint Powers Catholic10525
5Alma10820

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110TJ HansenFreeland1.24
212Braydon HonsingerFreeland1.99
311Elliott SirianniClio3.53
49Thomas LarsonAlma4.54
510Seth MeadGladwin5.47
611David MurphyFlint Powers Catholic6.07
710Landen WiseFrankenmuth6.78
811Andrew YaxClio8.54
912Tyler HeathClio8.94
1012Aidan LobsingerFlint Powers Catholic12.48
1110Nolan LonguskiShepherd12.48
129Brett MagnusFrankenmuth13.47
1311Caleb PalmreuterGladwin13.60
1412Braden KleinFreeland13.86
1510Owen FennellySaginaw Swan Valley16.06
1611Ali KudmaniAlma18.02
179Anthony PlanaFrankenmuth18.03
1810Elijah ChristensenGladwin19.28
1910Camden McLeodFreeland20.32
2012Bryce HusenBirch Run20.93
2112Grant CongerFrankenmuth21.17
229Bryce GrossFlint Powers Catholic21.84
2310Bodie HeissAlma22.18
2411Jack RumptzBirch Run23.58
2510Sam NemethFreeland25.07
269Luca LebronAlma25.16
2710Brayden SweeneyMidland Bullock Creek27.35
2810Jack LillywhiteFlint Kearsley28.01
2911Peter HueyFlint Powers Catholic29.42
309Murphy WagnerSaginaw Swan Valley30.88

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Alma4995+95+
2Frankenmuth6695+
3Shepherd7966
4Freeland8335

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Mary RichmondFrankenmuth1.00
210Ezgi KurtAlma2.14
39Natalie FoltzFrankenmuth3.99
412Ariel WarnerShepherd4.42
510Joy EvansAlma4.83
610Karie KeeferFreeland7.23
79Jada PrescottFreeland8.61
810Jenna OverlaAlma8.85
911Hannah RaglinAlma10.89
1012Elle HimebaughShepherd10.91
1111Aubrey KeelerClio11.09
1212Alexcis ParkerFlint Powers Catholic12.07
1311Paige KlohaFreeland13.50
1411Ava BoggsFlint Kearsley15.82
159Elise BardenFrankenmuth16.09
169Samantha BrownClio16.42
179Gabby ClevelandFrankenmuth16.67
189Cessaly FichtnerFreeland19.45
1912Jolie FisherShepherd20.61
2012Carley LynchShepherd20.92
219Mattie GagneMidland Bullock Creek21.29
2210Grace MurphyFlint Powers Catholic22.77
2310Vivian WickesAlma23.99
2412Jordan ClevelandAlma25.74
2510Gracie WarnerShepherd26.25
2612McKenzie BettsAlma27.19
2710Abby RobinsonGladwin27.80
2811Destiny WasoskiBay City John Glenn28.50
2910Clare ConzelmannFrankenmuth28.77
309Megan GimmeyShepherd29.04

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1St. Louis2995+95+
2Caro5995+
3Sanford-Meridian6195+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Ben MarchSt. Louis1.25
212Connor StefanovskyCaro1.98
311Matthew PattulloCaro3.00
410Landon PestrueSt. Louis3.89
512Jonah ShephardSanford-Meridian6.01
612Dylan MarrSt. Louis6.26
710Cade TruemnerPigeon-Laker6.97
810Tyler HealSanford-Meridian8.13
99Alex RodriguezSt. Louis9.22
1010Colin KuhnSt. Louis10.32
1110Jacob MooreCaro10.37
129Hayden ShattuckSt. Louis12.81
139Wesley HainesReese15.06
1411Elliot NoyesSanford-Meridian15.74
159Jayden FoxSaginaw Valley Lutheran17.72
1611Nicholas TallmanVassar18.76
1711Ethan WetzelSanford-Meridian19.85
1810Drew LaFaveSanford-Meridian20.46
1912Wyatt WojdulaReese20.47
209Logan BrawtSanford-Meridian21.45
2111Caleb GeigerBad Axe21.49
2211Matthew JohnstonHemlock22.69
239Jackson FultonCaro23.03
2411Ty JohnsonOtisville LakeVille23.97
2510Connor KennedyOtisville LakeVille24.59
2611Donythyn DeitrickSanford-Meridian25.49
2710Ian WeldonReese27.96
2811Konnor OlsonPigeon-Laker28.13
2911Jack TurnerPigeon-Laker29.07
3010Evan LangmaidCaro29.60

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Caro3395+95+
2St. Louis7395+
3Sandusky7595+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Ellymae McCoyReese1.25
211Jaiden DickmanSt. Louis2.02
310Kaya VrableCaro3.01
411Paige HerronCaro5.19
511Claire NeumannSaginaw Valley Lutheran5.73
612Ashley ShindorfVassar6.37
711Faith SwenorCaro7.53
812Lauren BrawtSanford-Meridian7.97
912Allysen JansenSandusky9.42
1011Jenna SweeneyReese10.89
1110Makenzie KregerSandusky11.24
1212Elizabeth SmithSanford-Meridian12.18
1411Rachael WalchCaro13.59
1310Maddie HuysentruytSandusky13.59
1511Alexa LongCaro14.30
1610Abby DiceSt. Louis15.80
179Alexis FabbroVassar16.37
1811Emma LangBad Axe17.93
1912Brookelynn JansenSandusky20.00
2011Diana CortesCass City20.26
219Braylee RiceReese22.51
229Carla CortesCass City23.17
2311Olivia UrbanOtisville LakeVille23.23
2412Laney PestrueSt. Louis25.37
2511Emma HaynesSaginaw Valley Lutheran25.68
2611Natalie LemertSt. Louis26.40
2712Payton KuhnSt. Louis27.15
2811Faith HooperPigeon-Laker27.69
299Aeralyn LeonardSt. Louis30.06
309Lexi WegnerCaro30.26

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