Uncategorized

2022 Regional Projections – Sharp Park Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Hillsdale Academy428395+
2Adrian Lenawee Christian501795+
3Morenci10267
4East Jackson10730

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Tyler BaysReading1.00
211Thomas HolmHillsdale Academy2.00
312Evan SuydamPetersburg-Summerfield3.48
411Michael AllenEast Jackson3.89
59Grayson RorickHillsdale Academy6.24
612Kade SpahrPittsford7.84
711Javin MericleEast Jackson9.00
810Diego BoColeJackson Preparatory9.28
99Pierson CousinoAdrian Lenawee Christian9.59
1010Reece PooleHillsdale Academy9.83
1112Lucas LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian10.54
1211Nathan DanielsAdrian Lenawee Christian10.72
1312Grant LongAdrian Lenawee Christian11.80
1412Bryson BachelderMorenci12.94
1512Caleb DienerHillsdale Academy13.27
1610Joel LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian16.19
1710Alex RichardsHillsdale Academy17.48
189Peyton FowlerReading20.78
1910Jameson WatsonBritton Deerfield20.90
2010Zachary MartinezMorenci21.14
2110Nick GardnerVandercook Lake21.37
2211Kutter VanakenReading22.94
239Henry LindleyHillsdale Academy24.57
249Dallas SwaenepoelVandercook Lake24.89
2511Ike LindleyHillsdale Academy26.26
2610Michael RisingMorenci27.98
2712Josh JensenPetersburg-Summerfield27.99
289Zyan BreznikAdrian Lenawee Christian28.52
2910Beau ShafferMorenci30.11
3010Kevin KaufmanMorenci30.48

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Hillsdale Academy3095+95+
2Pittsford5995+
3Adrian Lenawee Christian7595+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Izzy BrooksAdrian Lenawee Christian1.12
210Ava MallarPittsford2.56
312Megan RobertsHillsdale Academy2.60
49Ruth BrownleeHillsdale Academy4.08
510Ella WaltonHillsdale Academy5.71
611Brooke SmithPittsford5.92
79Emersyn BachelderMorenci7.55
810Riley McCumberPittsford8.26
910Stephanie HernandezAddison8.49
1012Whitney WilkinsonHillsdale Academy9.39
119Abby BrownleeHillsdale Academy11.80
1212Olivia OrtellJackson Preparatory13.13
1310Madison SallowsHillsdale Academy13.16
1410Caroline RobertsHillsdale Academy14.24
1510Taylor LautermilchCamden-Frontier14.51
1610Priya MericleEast Jackson14.92
1711Leah RorickMorenci17.30
1810Sophia FalaterReading18.20
1910Averil MillerCamden-Frontier19.91
2011Kariana CarpenterJackson Preparatory20.88
2110Aubrey ApplemanBritton Deerfield21.09
2212Dalay OjedaAdrian Lenawee Christian22.05
2312Zoey BreznikAdrian Lenawee Christian22.05
249Ayla HopkinsCamden-Frontier24.55
2512Allie JamesonHillsdale Will Carleton25.94
2611Maggie FrostAddison26.70
2712Emilee JagielskiPittsford27.23
289Taylor MillerCamden-Frontier28.01
2912Clarissa BergerMorenci28.76
3011Faith VerlindeAdrian Lenawee Christian28.82

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Hanover-Horton4395+95+
2Leslie12190
3Jonesville12390
4Hudson14320

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Rogan MellingHanover-Horton1.19
212Austin BrownHanover-Horton2.23
312Cameron PierceLeslie3.43
411Alex CzeiszpergerHudson3.99
511Gannon ShoreJackson Lumen Christi6.53
610Mitchell HiattOnsted6.64
710Isaiah DinvernoJackson Lumen Christi9.32
811Nolan GrantHillsdale9.60
910Landon BoulisHanover-Horton9.87
1011Gavin VanKampenJonesville11.47
1112Brody AmthorOnsted12.72
1211Evan ShepherdHanover-Horton12.90
1312Ashton WellsBronson13.32
149Ben GautscheUnion City14.03
1512Aden HathawayBronson16.04
1610Jason ShoopUnion City16.67
179Zach HassenzahlHanover-Horton17.54
1811Kyler PequetNapoleon18.66
1912Ethan LubahnLeslie19.12
2010Isaac St. JohnHudson19.95
2110Jose DomecqLeslie21.31
2212Henry FrederickAdrian Madison21.64
2311David FowlerJonesville23.86
2410Miles BrownHillsdale24.76
2511Mytchal MorrisonJonesville25.19
2611Aiden MonroeHillsdale25.53
2712Jacob ReifQuincy26.11
2811Owen BrownHanover-Horton30.90
299Nicholas SorrowHudson31.26
309Wyatt VowellBrooklyn Columbia Central31.65

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Jackson Lumen Christi4095+95+
2Leslie6295+
3Onsted6995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Emmry RossOnsted1.34
211Madison OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi1.71
312Kara TerakedisOnsted4.13
49Hailey CreisherLeslie5.40
59Macy FazekasJackson Lumen Christi5.68
610Erin LubahnLeslie5.72
710Chloe StalhoodHillsdale7.20
810Ava HathawayBronson7.76
910Jaidyn SmithLeslie8.82
1010Layla LopezJackson Lumen Christi10.28
1112Hope WilkesBrooklyn Columbia Central11.48
1212Gabrielle OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi13.61
1311Sydney FazekasJackson Lumen Christi13.82
149Ashlynn HarrisBronson14.13
159Savannah ArnettLeslie17.09
1610Skyler FraleyUnion City17.21
1712Megan SterlyHomer19.12
1812Olivianna WatkinsHanover-Horton19.42
199Annabelle CzeiszpergerHudson20.29
2010Thia TelloJackson Lumen Christi21.20
2110Allie EnglandOnsted21.24
2212Allyson RobargeOnsted21.40
2312Sarah AnastasiadisJackson Lumen Christi21.55
2410Lauren McLainNapoleon23.48
2512Isabella BerryHanover-Horton25.81
2610Alissa SkirkaUnion City25.83
279Raegan BrosamerOnsted27.07
2810Jayla BrightHudson28.34
299Murcie WallenUnion City29.00
3011Madelyn NormanNapoleon29.87

1 thought on “2022 Regional Projections – Sharp Park Regional”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s