2022 Regional Projections – Portage Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Portage Central	70	92	95+
2	Forest Hills Central	89	8	95+
3	Kalamazoo Central	105		90

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Benne Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	1.00
2	11	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	2.25
3	11	Aiden Moore	Battle Creek Lakeview	4.05
4	12	Jordan Domany	Caledonia	4.47
5	12	Ethan Krampe	Forest Hills Central	5.19
6	11	Liam Walters	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	7.10
7	12	Owen Lawrence	East Kentwood	8.22
8	12	Joshua Gormley	Portage Central	9.48
9	12	Ben Hunter	Portage Central	10.41
10	11	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	11.59
11	12	Caleb Bost	Battle Creek Lakeview	11.61
12	10	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	11.95
13	12	Logan Post	Portage Northern	11.97
14	11	Parker Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	13.73
15	10	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	14.23
16	12	Gavin Voetberg	Portage Central	16.44
17	10	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	17.98
18	12	Benjamin Bromley	Lowell	19.25
19	12	Andre Soisson	Kalamazoo Central	19.32
20	11	Levi Green	Byron Center	20.53
21	11	Nick Cabrera	Portage Central	23.32
22	11	Hudson Kemperman	Forest Hills Northern	23.50
23	10	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	24.16
24	12	Blake Elliot	Caledonia	24.73
25	10	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	25.35
26	10	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	28.56
27	9	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	29.28
28	11	Bruno Cabrera	Portage Central	29.81
29	12	Jonathan Miedema	Caledonia	31.71
30	9	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	32.03

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Forest Hills Central	115	36	95
2	Lowell	122	34	71
3	Forest Hills Northern	123	26	73
4	Portage Central	135		40
5	Byron Center	146		11
6	Kalamazoo Central	163		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Annika Sandman	Lowell	1.45
2	12	Allison Cornell	Forest Hills Northern	2.33
3	11	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	2.62
4	11	Selma Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	4.24
5	12	Ana Dunfee	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	6.05
6	9	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	9.40
7	12	Julia Kozal	Forest Hills Northern	10.14
8	12	Natalia Quigley	Caledonia	10.38
9	10	Sydney Law	Byron Center	12.49
10	12	Hope Webber	Mattawan	12.85
11	12	Cadence Schultz	East Kentwood	13.39
12	10	Annalise Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	13.48
13	12	Katrina Sandman	Lowell	13.53
14	12	Mary England	Kalamazoo Central	14.55
15	9	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	14.82
16	11	Amanda Williams	Portage Central	15.16
17	11	Peyton Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	15.22
18	9	Addison Tanis	Portage Northern	19.79
19	10	Anna Sybenga	Forest Hills Central	20.21
20	12	Keira Sandman	Lowell	21.42
21	9	Lila Mae Frank	Battle Creek Lakeview	21.74
22	12	Kiann Schmottlach	Forest Hills Northern	22.02
23	11	Alyssa Hinton	Battle Creek Lakeview	22.62
24	11	Addison Begeman	Portage Central	24.91
25	9	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	25.76
26	12	Madelyn Fennema	Caledonia	28.80
27	12	Dinara Domeier	Byron Center	29.74
28	10	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	32.02
29	10	Natalie Formsma	Byron Center	32.45
30	12	Leah Thompson	Caledonia	34.07

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Concord	46	81	95+
2	Kalamazoo Hackett	51	16	95+
3	Battle Creek St. Philip	59		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Adair Artis	Concord	1.04
2	11	Luke Sprague	Battle Creek St. Philip	2.25
3	9	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	3.03
4	11	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	5.71
5	11	Max Shugars	Battle Creek St. Philip	5.77
6	12	Isaac Waldron	Concord	5.90
7	9	Cole Bates	Concord	5.98
8	9	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	7.11
9	9	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	9.17
10	10	Landon Vanwormer	Mendon	9.92
11	10	Owen Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	12.41
12	10	Ben Iobe	Mendon	12.71
13	11	Sean Pierucci	Kalamazoo Hackett	14.06
14	11	Ryan Dehaan	Climax-Scotts	14.70
15	9	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord	14.76
16	10	Chandler Lafler	Colon	15.46
17	11	Ryan Casterline	Battle Creek St. Philip	16.60
18	10	Lleyton Bauman	Concord	18.30
19	9	Dalton Williams	Colon	19.86
20	10	Julian Barry	Kalamazoo Hackett	21.14
21	10	Jack Williams	White Pigeon	21.76
22	10	Sawyer Weiss	Battle Creek St. Philip	23.91
23	9	Gavin Minor	Colon	23.99
24	10	Jerome Bastian	Battle Creek St. Philip	24.04
25	9	Damien Martinez	Kalamazoo Hackett	25.48
26	9	Slade Hellard	Concord	25.63
27	10	Bo VeenKant	Tekonsha	25.79
28	9	Connor Stevens	Concord	26.39
29	12	Cole Jackson	White Pigeon	28.47
30	11	Nick Doer	Kalamazoo Hackett	29.09

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	37	95+	95+
2	Concord	66		95+
3	Mendon	92		61
4	Colon	96		39

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Presley Allen	Mendon	1.76
2	9	Rowan Allen	Mendon	2.47
3	9	Cieara Barrett	Concord	3.36
4	12	Dani VanLente	Tekonsha	4.37
5	12	Sydney Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	5.07
6	9	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	6.54
7	11	Lilli Stanzel	Colon	7.33
8	9	Katelyn Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	9.36
9	11	Riley Adams	Concord	9.96
10	11	Addie Curtis	Marcellus	10.89
11	9	Julianne Mounce	Kalamazoo Hackett	11.32
12	9	Paige Zeigler	Kalamazoo Hackett	14.39
13	11	Macey Burgess	Colon	14.70
14	10	Abby Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	14.93
15	10	Caitlin Wright	Concord	18.03
16	12	Breanna Franks	Decatur	18.10
17	11	Reese Williams	Colon	18.54
18	9	Bethany Carpenter	Kalamazoo Hackett	19.34
19	11	Carissa Shedd	Tekonsha	19.36
20	10	Jamielynn Delarye	White Pigeon	19.46
21	11	Chloe Badger	Athens	19.86
22	10	Hannah Stimer	Concord	20.31
23	11	Mimi Hibbard	Battle Creek St. Philip	20.93
24	9	Lily Preston	Colon	25.57
25	9	Julia Stevens	Concord	26.39
26	10	Rachel Schelstraete	White Pigeon	26.44
27	10	Lena Miner	Heritage Christian Academy	27.25
28	9	Sophia Stuart	Mendon	28.48
29	11	Maria Stevens	Concord	28.71
30	9	Taylor Zinsmaster	Mendon	29.24