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2022 Regional Projections – Portage Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Portage Central709295+
2Forest Hills Central89895+
3Kalamazoo Central10590

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Benne AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills1.00
211Jasper CaneKalamazoo Central2.25
311Aiden MooreBattle Creek Lakeview4.05
412Jordan DomanyCaledonia4.47
512Ethan KrampeForest Hills Central5.19
611Liam WaltersGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills7.10
712Owen LawrenceEast Kentwood8.22
812Joshua GormleyPortage Central9.48
912Ben HunterPortage Central10.41
1011Logan BegemanPortage Central11.59
1112Caleb BostBattle Creek Lakeview11.61
1210Sawyer McCarthyForest Hills Central11.95
1312Logan PostPortage Northern11.97
1411Parker LudwigForest Hills Central13.73
1510Isaac TanisEast Kentwood14.23
1612Gavin VoetbergPortage Central16.44
1710Evan NickolesEast Kentwood17.98
1812Benjamin BromleyLowell19.25
1912Andre SoissonKalamazoo Central19.32
2011Levi GreenByron Center20.53
2111Nick CabreraPortage Central23.32
2211Hudson KempermanForest Hills Northern23.50
2310Joseph SpadaKalamazoo Central24.16
2412Blake ElliotCaledonia24.73
2510Jacob SanfordForest Hills Central25.35
2610Spencer PorterForest Hills Northern28.56
279Andrew WrightKalamazoo Central29.28
2811Bruno CabreraPortage Central29.81
2912Jonathan MiedemaCaledonia31.71
309Jackson LamKalamazoo Loy Norrix32.03

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Forest Hills Central1153695
2Lowell1223471
3Forest Hills Northern1232673
4Portage Central13540
5Byron Center14611
6Kalamazoo Central1639

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Annika SandmanLowell1.45
212Allison CornellForest Hills Northern2.33
311Clara James-HeerForest Hills Central2.62
411Selma AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills4.24
512Ana DunfeeKalamazoo Loy Norrix6.05
69Olivia StacyPortage Northern9.40
712Julia KozalForest Hills Northern10.14
812Natalia QuigleyCaledonia10.38
910Sydney LawByron Center12.49
1012Hope WebberMattawan12.85
1112Cadence SchultzEast Kentwood13.39
1210Annalise AlkemaKalamazoo Central13.48
1312Katrina SandmanLowell13.53
1412Mary EnglandKalamazoo Central14.55
159Ava LawrenceEast Kentwood14.82
1611Amanda WilliamsPortage Central15.16
1711Peyton LudwigForest Hills Central15.22
189Addison TanisPortage Northern19.79
1910Anna SybengaForest Hills Central20.21
2012Keira SandmanLowell21.42
219Lila Mae FrankBattle Creek Lakeview21.74
2212Kiann SchmottlachForest Hills Northern22.02
2311Alyssa HintonBattle Creek Lakeview22.62
2411Addison BegemanPortage Central24.91
259Rhea MouwPortage Central25.76
2612Madelyn FennemaCaledonia28.80
2712Dinara DomeierByron Center29.74
2810Reese HansenGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills32.02
2910Natalie FormsmaByron Center32.45
3012Leah ThompsonCaledonia34.07

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Concord468195+
2Kalamazoo Hackett511695+
3Battle Creek St. Philip5995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Adair ArtisConcord1.04
211Luke SpragueBattle Creek St. Philip2.25
39Marek ButkiewiczKalamazoo Hackett3.03
411Gavin SehyKalamazoo Hackett5.71
511Max ShugarsBattle Creek St. Philip5.77
612Isaac WaldronConcord5.90
79Cole BatesConcord5.98
89Sean SiemsKalamazoo Hackett7.11
99Jesse FielisWhite Pigeon9.17
1010Landon VanwormerMendon9.92
1110Owen NofsBattle Creek St. Philip12.41
1210Ben IobeMendon12.71
1311Sean PierucciKalamazoo Hackett14.06
1411Ryan DehaanClimax-Scotts14.70
159Maddox HutchinsonConcord14.76
1610Chandler LaflerColon15.46
1711Ryan CasterlineBattle Creek St. Philip16.60
1810Lleyton BaumanConcord18.30
199Dalton WilliamsColon19.86
2010Julian BarryKalamazoo Hackett21.14
2110Jack WilliamsWhite Pigeon21.76
2210Sawyer WeissBattle Creek St. Philip23.91
239Gavin MinorColon23.99
2410Jerome BastianBattle Creek St. Philip24.04
259Damien MartinezKalamazoo Hackett25.48
269Slade HellardConcord25.63
2710Bo VeenKantTekonsha25.79
289Connor StevensConcord26.39
2912Cole JacksonWhite Pigeon28.47
3011Nick DoerKalamazoo Hackett29.09

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Kalamazoo Hackett3795+95+
2Concord6695+
3Mendon9261
4Colon9639

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Presley AllenMendon1.76
29Rowan AllenMendon2.47
39Cieara BarrettConcord3.36
412Dani VanLenteTekonsha4.37
512Sydney Van EsKalamazoo Hackett5.07
69Emma RikerKalamazoo Hackett6.54
711Lilli StanzelColon7.33
89Katelyn Van EsKalamazoo Hackett9.36
911Riley AdamsConcord9.96
1011Addie CurtisMarcellus10.89
119Julianne MounceKalamazoo Hackett11.32
129Paige ZeiglerKalamazoo Hackett14.39
1311Macey BurgessColon14.70
1410Abby UlbrichKalamazoo Hackett14.93
1510Caitlin WrightConcord18.03
1612Breanna FranksDecatur18.10
1711Reese WilliamsColon18.54
189Bethany CarpenterKalamazoo Hackett19.34
1911Carissa SheddTekonsha19.36
2010Jamielynn DelaryeWhite Pigeon19.46
2111Chloe BadgerAthens19.86
2210Hannah StimerConcord20.31
2311Mimi HibbardBattle Creek St. Philip20.93
249Lily PrestonColon25.57
259Julia StevensConcord26.39
2610Rachel SchelstraeteWhite Pigeon26.44
2710Lena MinerHeritage Christian Academy27.25
289Sophia StuartMendon28.48
2911Maria StevensConcord28.71
309Taylor ZinsmasterMendon29.24

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