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2022 Regional Projections – Huron Meadows Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Dansville4795+95+
2Stockbridge7684
3Algonac7978
4Charyl Stockwell Academy8238

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Theodore DavisDansville1.01
212Collin CookStockbridge2.52
312Sammy SchmidtDansville3.57
49Julian WalkerAlgonac4.64
512Max MaderMadison Heights Bishop Foley4.72
612Raymond RogersCharyl Stockwell Academy6.58
710Michael DarlingtonUniversity Liggett7.58
812Joseph KadluboskiDansville8.22
911Anthony UrbaniakCharyl Stockwell Academy8.53
1011Ethan WrightStockbridge9.72
1112Micah BoltonStockbridge9.81
1211David ClemonsAlgonac11.40
1311Calvin VanhartesveltDansville13.57
1412Ray ShumakerCharyl Stockwell Academy13.67
159Brendan BelandUniversity Liggett16.34
1610Ray LanfearClawson16.41
179Owen BeinditAlgonac16.47
1812Taylor AngusNew Haven19.07
1911Gavin ViditoDansville20.51
2010Finn CoffmanStockbridge21.31
2110Nathan SalazarMadison Heights Bishop Foley21.44
2212Hunter ByerlyAlgonac22.95
2310Donald RowlandsUniversity Liggett22.96
249Brody UrbaniakCharyl Stockwell Academy24.45
2511Griffin MelroseAlgonac24.66
269Jack ReyesAlgonac25.38
2710Cole WyckoffClawson27.39
2810Kolbe MartinoMadison Heights Bishop Foley28.96
2911Kyle TomasikCharyl Stockwell Academy30.54
3010Jackson FetterUniversity Liggett31.16

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Madison Heights Bishop Foley365895+
2Stockbridge374295+
3Algonac6495+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Kerith ShortUniversity Liggett1.83
212Penelope GriffioenUniversity Liggett2.10
310Rebekah HallockDansville3.91
411Carmellina BiaforaMadison Heights Bishop Foley4.84
59JayLee ChapmanStockbridge4.92
69Jasmine WalkerAlgonac6.65
710Ava VaccaroStockbridge8.25
810Josephine MalyszMadison Heights Bishop Foley9.16
911Savannah RickettsCharyl Stockwell Academy10.30
1010Anna RansomStockbridge10.51
119Elanor BarnesMadison Heights Bishop Foley10.81
129Elizabeth GoughUniversity Liggett11.59
1411Lovelyn KetepaClawson13.35
139Ella HeffnerCharyl Stockwell Academy13.35
1510Haylee ByerlyAlgonac14.00
1610Eliana JohnsonStockbridge15.54
1710Elizabeth BallorMadison Heights Bishop Foley16.06
1811Sophia SchudtMadison Heights Bishop Foley17.80
1910Charlie HarmsAlgonac19.25
2011Gabrielle HeathStockbridge20.80
2111Kelsey BeckettUniversity Liggett21.38
2212Alora MullinsStockbridge22.24
239Lucy ThomsonClawson23.97
2412Emily MandziukMadison Heights Bishop Foley24.85
259Lizzie SchneiderClawson25.21
2610Calleigh McMillanClawson25.93
2711Sadie RuhunaAlgonac26.72
2811Kaylee PyszoraAlgonac26.78
299Charly WerenkaClawson29.03
3010Lauren LilesMadison Heights Bishop Foley29.69

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Brighton469595+
2Ann Arbor Skyline61595+
3Dexter10495+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Nicolas FryAnn Arbor Skyline2.10
211Tyler LangleyBrighton2.26
311Iain ForrestDavison3.71
411Brandon AndersonDexter4.39
512Brady MatuszewskiBrighton4.73
611Luke SulimanAnn Arbor Skyline5.78
712Benjamin SmithHartland6.98
812Christopher Van LentAnn Arbor Skyline7.81
912Nathan KaticFenton9.75
1012Connor MartinLapeer10.45
1111Mason JettAnn Arbor Skyline10.97
1211Luke CampbellBrighton11.25
1312Owen AckermanDexter13.25
1412Dylan WhiteBrighton13.67
1512Brayden MorrisBrighton14.36
1610Tyler BrockBrighton18.87
1712Marcelino JuarezGrand Blanc19.73
1810Elijah ForbordBrighton19.91
1911Noah DeLandHowell20.81
2012Grant HoffmanHolly23.19
2110James LatstetterFlushing23.35
2212Sam KrombergHartland23.41
2311Sam GibsonDexter25.56
2411Alex JowettSouth Lyon27.09
2511Carson CookHartland27.28
2612Jackson BaeseLapeer27.47
279Noah LinstromDavison27.90
289Griffin GoodFlushing28.52
2912Alex HoffmanDexter29.20
3010Drake WallaceHowell34.32

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Brighton4095+95+
2Ann Arbor Skyline7195+
3Dexter10195+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Mackenzie WrightHowell3.02
210Alena BlumbergDexter3.10
311Carrigan EberlyBrighton3.23
412Natalie KesslerAnn Arbor Skyline4.52
511Nikki CarothersBrighton4.80
69Lydia LaMarraBrighton6.68
712Caroline VanceAnn Arbor Skyline8.70
812Sophia ThomasGrand Blanc8.83
910Annabel O’HaverDexter9.20
1011Allison MayerAnn Arbor Skyline11.75
1112Amyla EberhartSouth Lyon East15.26
1212Leah WhiteAnn Arbor Skyline15.93
1312Stella FarmerBrighton16.28
1410Grace TykockiGrand Blanc16.36
1510Elle BissettBrighton17.21
169Kayla WardSouth Lyon17.31
1711Gabrielle BolithoBrighton17.57
1812Lexie BrownHartland17.62
1911Megan KowalskiBrighton17.64
2012Bella GrantSouth Lyon East18.85
219Sophia NunneryHartland20.48
2210Izzy MacCaughanFenton22.83
2312Alexandra CabajHartland23.31
2412Mia CholewaHowell23.88
259Elliana NeuerHartland24.20
269Reese CanadaFenton24.65
2711Kate VaritekDexter25.13
2810Addison BruckmanDexter25.28
2912Adrianna PatanisSouth Lyon28.65
3012Lydia CoccioloneAnn Arbor Skyline31.09

3 thoughts on “2022 Regional Projections – Huron Meadows Regional”

  1. How are you figuring out % for places is it like different weighted systems you are using and comparing all them for them? Then after that how are you getting the % in top 3 and stuff like that for teams.
    Thanks – You do a awesome job.
    Plus Go Jags!

    Like

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