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2022 Regional Projections – Kensington Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Detroit Catholic Central7790+95+
2White Lake Lakeland9489
3Highland-Milford9963
4Walled Lake Northern10641
5Novi1317

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Jared PlattWhite Lake Lakeland1.61
211Ty ParkerWalled Lake Northern2.03
312Griffin ConwayNovi4.40
410Logan MullanDetroit U-D Jesuit4.41
512Nathan RidderingNovi5.78
612Matthew ShortBerkley5.99
711Pierce GrzymkowskiWhite Lake Lakeland6.88
812Matthew AtkinsonDetroit Catholic Central9.15
99Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford10.32
1012Eddie KingFarmington11.25
1112Sebastian CervelliWest Bloomfield11.49
1211Evan RiceWalled Lake Northern11.92
1312Quaid SchimetzHighland-Milford15.25
1411Ryan IllikmanDetroit Catholic Central15.60
1512Jack KellyDetroit Catholic Central15.75
1612Gavin SteeleFarmington16.73
1712Iggy GrynaviskiFarmington19.04
1810Ryan CarrannantoHighland-Milford20.53
1912Josh LassalineDetroit Catholic Central20.62
2012Miles BuckleyDetroit Catholic Central20.68
2111Lucas KarbelWalled Lake Northern21.31
2212Michael EhresmanDetroit Catholic Central21.46
2312Thomas KennedyHighland-Milford22.62
2411Oliver MossBerkley24.25
2512Ben GnatekNovi25.59
2611Noah TiernanWhite Lake Lakeland27.16
2711Ryan WardWhite Lake Lakeland27.71
2811Declan FoleyDetroit U-D Jesuit28.96
2912Nicholas NegruWalled Lake Central29.60
309Gavin JohnsWhite Lake Lakeland30.43

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Walled Lake Northern578695+
2Highland-Milford791291
3Novi9466
4Farmington10136
5White Lake Lakeland1207

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Molly BaraccoFarmington2.40
212Grace HarkenriderHighland-Milford4.72
312Jacie RemtemaHighland-Milford4.99
412Genavieve Kushner-LopezWalled Lake Western6.22
511Ava KurczewskiWalled Lake Northern6.76
611Kylee KingOak Park7.17
712Anjali KidambiNovi9.25
811Alisia OlteanuWalled Lake Western10.09
912Taylor RegesterWalled Lake Northern10.18
1011Madelyn GordonWalled Lake Northern10.38
1110Isabelle KrauseWalled Lake Northern13.12
1212Abigail GermanNovi13.31
1310Catherine SteeleFarmington13.46
1410Ava AlicandroWhite Lake Lakeland13.73
1511Emma HoffmeyerWalled Lake Western15.08
1611Faylinn WongFarmington15.66
1712Ava WalshWhite Lake Lakeland16.43
1812Emily WadeWalled Lake Central16.82
1912Ava PorterWalled Lake Northern22.22
2012Olivia LincourtFarmington24.16
2111Talia SachsBirmingham Seaholm24.52
2210Joanna PhilipNovi25.37
2311Saniya ReddyNovi25.82
2411Mia CzarnowskiWalled Lake Northern25.91
259Mya TassNovi27.04
2612Leah MerriamHighland-Milford28.37
2710Macy JenkinsHighland-Milford29.24
2810Lauren BickerdtDetroit Renaissance29.44
2910Natalie JoinerWhite Lake Lakeland30.50
3012Mia McDonaldWhite Lake Lakeland30.81

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