2022 Regional Projections – Kensington Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Detroit Catholic Central	77	90+	95+
2	White Lake Lakeland	94		89
3	Highland-Milford	99		63
4	Walled Lake Northern	106		41
5	Novi	131		7

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jared Platt	White Lake Lakeland	1.61
2	11	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	2.03
3	12	Griffin Conway	Novi	4.40
4	10	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	4.41
5	12	Nathan Riddering	Novi	5.78
6	12	Matthew Short	Berkley	5.99
7	11	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	6.88
8	12	Matthew Atkinson	Detroit Catholic Central	9.15
9	9	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	10.32
10	12	Eddie King	Farmington	11.25
11	12	Sebastian Cervelli	West Bloomfield	11.49
12	11	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	11.92
13	12	Quaid Schimetz	Highland-Milford	15.25
14	11	Ryan Illikman	Detroit Catholic Central	15.60
15	12	Jack Kelly	Detroit Catholic Central	15.75
16	12	Gavin Steele	Farmington	16.73
17	12	Iggy Grynaviski	Farmington	19.04
18	10	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	20.53
19	12	Josh Lassaline	Detroit Catholic Central	20.62
20	12	Miles Buckley	Detroit Catholic Central	20.68
21	11	Lucas Karbel	Walled Lake Northern	21.31
22	12	Michael Ehresman	Detroit Catholic Central	21.46
23	12	Thomas Kennedy	Highland-Milford	22.62
24	11	Oliver Moss	Berkley	24.25
25	12	Ben Gnatek	Novi	25.59
26	11	Noah Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	27.16
27	11	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	27.71
28	11	Declan Foley	Detroit U-D Jesuit	28.96
29	12	Nicholas Negru	Walled Lake Central	29.60
30	9	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	30.43

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Walled Lake Northern	57	86	95+
2	Highland-Milford	79	12	91
3	Novi	94		66
4	Farmington	101		36
5	White Lake Lakeland	120		7

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Molly Baracco	Farmington	2.40
2	12	Grace Harkenrider	Highland-Milford	4.72
3	12	Jacie Remtema	Highland-Milford	4.99
4	12	Genavieve Kushner-Lopez	Walled Lake Western	6.22
5	11	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	6.76
6	11	Kylee King	Oak Park	7.17
7	12	Anjali Kidambi	Novi	9.25
8	11	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	10.09
9	12	Taylor Regester	Walled Lake Northern	10.18
10	11	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	10.38
11	10	Isabelle Krause	Walled Lake Northern	13.12
12	12	Abigail German	Novi	13.31
13	10	Catherine Steele	Farmington	13.46
14	10	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	13.73
15	11	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	15.08
16	11	Faylinn Wong	Farmington	15.66
17	12	Ava Walsh	White Lake Lakeland	16.43
18	12	Emily Wade	Walled Lake Central	16.82
19	12	Ava Porter	Walled Lake Northern	22.22
20	12	Olivia Lincourt	Farmington	24.16
21	11	Talia Sachs	Birmingham Seaholm	24.52
22	10	Joanna Philip	Novi	25.37
23	11	Saniya Reddy	Novi	25.82
24	11	Mia Czarnowski	Walled Lake Northern	25.91
25	9	Mya Tass	Novi	27.04
26	12	Leah Merriam	Highland-Milford	28.37
27	10	Macy Jenkins	Highland-Milford	29.24
28	10	Lauren Bickerdt	Detroit Renaissance	29.44
29	10	Natalie Joiner	White Lake Lakeland	30.50
30	12	Mia McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	30.81