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2022 Regional Projections – Happy Acres Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Whitmore Lake4295+95+
2Carson City-Crystal8195+
3Novi Christian Academy10091
4Webberville1189

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Logan CooperPotterville1.15
212Braylan MajeskyWhitmore Lake2.02
312Caleb HowardWebberville3.80
49Landen LivingstonWhitmore Lake5.08
511Cameron GriffinWhitmore Lake5.35
612Deegan BodellCarson City-Crystal6.15
712Jacob SkidmoreNovi Christian Academy6.91
811Jobe SkaffNovi Christian Academy10.68
911Reily HendersonWhitmore Lake11.37
1011Trevor FeldpauschFowler11.48
119Timothy ChamberlainPortland St. Patrick12.45
129Emmanuel MehariPlymouth Christian Academy12.94
139Quentin SmithFowler13.98
149Kristian CoonCarson City-Crystal14.64
1512Dennis WilsonNovi Christian Academy16.32
169Carter ClarkCarson City-Crystal16.47
1712Adam MoorePlymouth Christian Academy16.85
1812Drew PeckensWebberville18.87
1910Nate DillonWhitmore Lake19.65
2012Brayden ClarkCarson City-Crystal19.80
2112Vincenzo LewanPlymouth Christian Academy20.00
2212Martin WhitePortland St. Patrick21.86
239Tyler LangfeldtPotterville22.17
249Gavin HoweryWebberville22.43
2510Ronaldo RivasWhitmore Lake24.81
269Isaac FoxElsterPortland St. Patrick25.94
2711Liam WilderWebberville26.03
2812Oisin O’GradyCarson City-Crystal26.06
2912Jacob StevensCarson City-Crystal27.61
3011Ryan WilliamsNovi Christian Academy30.75

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Whitmore Lake2695+95+
2Clarkston Everest Collegiate8995+
3Novi Christian Academy11053
4Portland St. Patrick11346

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
19Carina BurchiWhitmore Lake1.01
212Ashlyn KephartLansing Christian3.11
311Natalie MeadowsWhitmore Lake3.88
411Ellayna MeredithPortland St. Patrick4.14
59Elodie WeaverWhitmore Lake5.54
610Kelcie PungFowler8.29
711Josie DubucNovi Christian Academy8.50
89Taylor WiegandLivingston Christian8.55
912Brooke CravenWhitmore Lake8.74
109Madi HarePlymouth Christian Academy8.86
119Sofia RobertsonWhitmore Lake9.51
1210Erica WalkerClarkston Everest Collegiate12.04
1312Cozette BrownPortland St. Patrick12.50
1411Mya GuillermoNovi Christian Academy14.48
1511Eve HerrgottClarkston Everest Collegiate17.13
1612Grace PiggottFowler18.00
17Grace BellNovi Christian Academy18.85
1810Isabella Nelson-DanielsWhitmore Lake19.19
1912Alyse FelixClarkston Everest Collegiate19.55
209Alaina DriverPotterville20.86
2112Stephanie SuranClarkston Everest Collegiate22.15
2212Corinne RitterLansing Christian24.11
2311Ciara ParsonsWhitmore Lake24.14
2411Grace O’HareFowler24.77
259Clara GroenPlymouth Christian Academy24.95
268Ezrielle MartinLivingston Christian27.02
279Tabitha NorrisSt. Charles28.85
2811Isabelle KissanePortland St. Patrick29.37
2910Audrey JohnsonLivingston Christian31.25
3010Emily MuellerSt. Charles31.69

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