2022 Regional Projections – Happy Acres Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	42	95+	95+
2	Carson City-Crystal	81		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	100		91
4	Webberville	118		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	1.15
2	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	2.02
3	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	3.80
4	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	5.08
5	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	5.35
6	12	Deegan Bodell	Carson City-Crystal	6.15
7	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	6.91
8	11	Jobe Skaff	Novi Christian Academy	10.68
9	11	Reily Henderson	Whitmore Lake	11.37
10	11	Trevor Feldpausch	Fowler	11.48
11	9	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	12.45
12	9	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	12.94
13	9	Quentin Smith	Fowler	13.98
14	9	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	14.64
15	12	Dennis Wilson	Novi Christian Academy	16.32
16	9	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	16.47
17	12	Adam Moore	Plymouth Christian Academy	16.85
18	12	Drew Peckens	Webberville	18.87
19	10	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	19.65
20	12	Brayden Clark	Carson City-Crystal	19.80
21	12	Vincenzo Lewan	Plymouth Christian Academy	20.00
22	12	Martin White	Portland St. Patrick	21.86
23	9	Tyler Langfeldt	Potterville	22.17
24	9	Gavin Howery	Webberville	22.43
25	10	Ronaldo Rivas	Whitmore Lake	24.81
26	9	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	25.94
27	11	Liam Wilder	Webberville	26.03
28	12	Oisin O’Grady	Carson City-Crystal	26.06
29	12	Jacob Stevens	Carson City-Crystal	27.61
30	11	Ryan Williams	Novi Christian Academy	30.75

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	26	95+	95+
2	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	89		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	110		53
4	Portland St. Patrick	113		46

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	1.01
2	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	3.11
3	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	3.88
4	11	Ellayna Meredith	Portland St. Patrick	4.14
5	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	5.54
6	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	8.29
7	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	8.50
8	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	8.55
9	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	8.74
10	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.86
11	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	9.51
12	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	12.04
13	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	12.50
14	11	Mya Guillermo	Novi Christian Academy	14.48
15	11	Eve Herrgott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	17.13
16	12	Grace Piggott	Fowler	18.00
17	–	Grace Bell	Novi Christian Academy	18.85
18	10	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	19.19
19	12	Alyse Felix	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	19.55
20	9	Alaina Driver	Potterville	20.86
21	12	Stephanie Suran	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	22.15
22	12	Corinne Ritter	Lansing Christian	24.11
23	11	Ciara Parsons	Whitmore Lake	24.14
24	11	Grace O’Hare	Fowler	24.77
25	9	Clara Groen	Plymouth Christian Academy	24.95
26	8	Ezrielle Martin	Livingston Christian	27.02
27	9	Tabitha Norris	St. Charles	28.85
28	11	Isabelle Kissane	Portland St. Patrick	29.37
29	10	Audrey Johnson	Livingston Christian	31.25
30	10	Emily Mueller	St. Charles	31.69