2022 Regional Projections – Shrine Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	76	71	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	84	10	95+
3	Lutheran Westland	87	19	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	1.46
2	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	1.58
3	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	3.62
4	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	4.50
5	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	5.63
6	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	6.03
7	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	8.96
8	9	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	9.53
9	10	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	10.31
10	9	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	10.91
11	12	Arline Lile	Royal Oak Shrine	11.54
12	11	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	11.67
13	12	Matthew Zammit Jr.	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	12.41
14	11	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	14.33
15	11	AJ Owen	Birmingham Roeper	14.55
16	12	Dean Moshier	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	18.38
17	12	Brayden McKay	Allen Park Cabrini	18.68
18	10	Seth Slater	Southfield Christian	19.27
19	12	Samuel Wenzel	Austin Catholic	19.98
20	11	Tommy Abazi	Southfield Christian	20.26
21	11	Max Procissi	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	22.35
22	12	Logan Eiden	Allen Park Cabrini	22.56
23	9	Justin Grissom	Lutheran Westland	25.21
24	11	Nathan Betke	Lutheran Westland	26.04
25	12	Mitchell Graveline	Royal Oak Shrine	26.98
26	12	Dominic Catallo	Lutheran Westland	27.85
27	11	Jeffrey McGuire	Lutheran Westland	27.96
28	12	Luke Witte	Lutheran Westland	28.01
29	11	Austin Ahler	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	29.29
30	10	Jack Luzynski	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	29.54

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	45	94	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	55	6	95+
3	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	60		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	1.10
2	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	2.41
3	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	2.50
4	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	4.81
5	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	5.68
6	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	6.86
7	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	7.96
8	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	8.08
9	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	9.50
10	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	9.61
11	11	Morgan McNally	Academy of the Sacred Heart	11.80
12	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran Westland	12.07
13	10	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	12.70
14	10	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	15.87
15	12	Maura Gum	Royal Oak Shrine	17.11
16	11	Kendall Zaliwski	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.07
17	10	Isobel Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	18.29
18	10	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	18.54
19	11	Grace Ligon	Southfield Christian	19.24
20	11	Karis Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.29
21	11	Nicole Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	20.02
22	12	Emma Burrell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	22.77
23	9	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.88
24	9	Madisyn Smith	Allen Park Cabrini	24.29
25	10	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	24.56
26	9	Maya Ferguson	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	25.74
27	12	Elaine Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	27.08
28	10	Rita Luhring	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	27.56
29	12	Meg Gleeson	Royal Oak Shrine	28.14
30	12	Lillian Paschke	Riverview Gabriel Richard	30.11