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2022 Regional Projections – Shrine Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Marine City Cardinal Mooney767195+
2Royal Oak Shrine841095+
3Lutheran Westland871995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Christopher RusselburgAllen Park Cabrini1.46
211Tyler LennMarine City Cardinal Mooney1.58
312Alex MeszarosRiverview Gabriel Richard3.62
412Merrick MichaelsonWest Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy4.50
511TJ DonnanSouthfield Christian5.63
69Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine6.03
712Johnny BenkoRiverview Gabriel Richard8.96
89Michael BowkerRoyal Oak Shrine9.53
910Tom ShaferLutheran Westland10.31
109Max BrannanLutheran Westland10.91
1112Arline LileRoyal Oak Shrine11.54
1211Isaac ZammitMarine City Cardinal Mooney11.67
1312Matthew Zammit Jr.Marine City Cardinal Mooney12.41
1411Luke DouglasAuburn Hills Oakland Christian14.33
1511AJ OwenBirmingham Roeper14.55
1612Dean MoshierAuburn Hills Oakland Christian18.38
1712Brayden McKayAllen Park Cabrini18.68
1810Seth SlaterSouthfield Christian19.27
1912Samuel WenzelAustin Catholic19.98
2011Tommy AbaziSouthfield Christian20.26
2111Max ProcissiMarine City Cardinal Mooney22.35
2212Logan EidenAllen Park Cabrini22.56
239Justin GrissomLutheran Westland25.21
2411Nathan BetkeLutheran Westland26.04
2512Mitchell GravelineRoyal Oak Shrine26.98
2612Dominic CatalloLutheran Westland27.85
2711Jeffrey McGuireLutheran Westland27.96
2812Luke WitteLutheran Westland28.01
2911Austin AhlerRochester Hills Lutheran NW29.29
3010Jack LuzynskiMarine City Cardinal Mooney29.54

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Rochester Hills Lutheran NW459495+
2Royal Oak Shrine55695+
3Auburn Hills Oakland Christian6095+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini1.10
210Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian2.41
312Erika Van LotonHuron Valley Lutheran2.50
412Helana NapiorkowskiAustin Catholic4.81
512Madeleine BargeRochester Hills Lutheran NW5.68
611Leah ZarrilliAuburn Hills Oakland Christian6.86
711Abby RiceRochester Hills Lutheran NW7.96
810Natalie GibbsBirmingham Roeper8.08
912Julia TroxelRochester Hills Lutheran NW9.50
1012Natalie MalczykHuron Valley Lutheran9.61
1111Morgan McNallyAcademy of the Sacred Heart11.80
1212Michaela KurthLutheran Westland12.07
1310Tess TillmanRoyal Oak Shrine12.70
1410Rose LoseyRoyal Oak Shrine15.87
1512Maura GumRoyal Oak Shrine17.11
1611Kendall ZaliwskiRochester Hills Lutheran NW18.07
1710Isobel MalcolmRoyal Oak Shrine18.29
1810Annaliese LoseyRoyal Oak Shrine18.54
1911Grace LigonSouthfield Christian19.24
2011Karis KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian19.29
2111Nicole TeedAllen Park Cabrini20.02
2212Emma BurrellRochester Hills Lutheran NW22.77
239Raley KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian22.88
249Madisyn SmithAllen Park Cabrini24.29
2510Chloe SurhighRoyal Oak Shrine24.56
269Maya FergusonMarine City Cardinal Mooney25.74
2712Elaine TeedAllen Park Cabrini27.08
2810Rita LuhringRochester Hills Lutheran NW27.56
2912Meg GleesonRoyal Oak Shrine28.14
3012Lillian PaschkeRiverview Gabriel Richard30.11

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