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2022 Regional Projections – Milan Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Chelsea419595+
2Adrian53595+
3Dearborn Divine Child7195+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Connell AlfordChelsea1.17
212Michael HegartyDearborn Divine Child2.68
312Carter McCalisterMonroe Jefferson2.97
412Aiden SmithAdrian3.80
511Braylon PettyAdrian4.55
612Bram HartsuffChelsea6.65
712Zebedee SwagerChelsea6.98
811Logan RuffnerRiverview8.11
99Moises SalazarAdrian8.92
1010Isaak RubleyDundee11.79
1110Colin MurrayDearborn Divine Child12.09
1212Nick SpruceChelsea13.26
1311Jackson DellChelsea14.19
1410Leo SwagerChelsea15.28
1512Ben SchefkaAdrian15.40
1612Nathan UlcakDearborn Divine Child15.95
179Jacob StanislawskiFlat Rock16.24
1812Ryan MorrisNew Boston Huron18.23
1912Dylan McGrathDearborn Divine Child19.19
2011Sunishthh SinghAnn Arbor Gabriel Richard19.65
2112Jake EaglingAdrian20.95
2212Elijah JorgensenDearborn Divine Child20.96
2312Brayden HumesMilan23.14
249Beckett BoosChelsea24.44
2512Griffin MentzerNew Boston Huron24.65
2611Abdul GhennewaNew Boston Huron27.57
2711Grant FahleTecumseh27.73
2810Lucas KuhnNew Boston Huron28.86
2912Anthony PucilloAnn Arbor Gabriel Richard28.92
3012Zachary McMahanDundee29.95

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Monroe Jefferson705795+
2Adrian733895+
3Chelsea8771
4Tecumseh9734

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Jenna PilachowskiMonroe Jefferson1.01
212Kaylee PestaTecumseh2.62
312Gianna-Marie SchubertAnn Arbor Gabriel Richard3.37
410Natalia DeMeaChelsea4.61
511Anastee DavisAdrian7.29
610Sophy SkeelsAdrian7.45
710Marisa ChueyTrenton8.29
810Kathryn KurtinaitisDearborn Divine Child10.10
911Yoselin Fermin-CamposAdrian10.22
1010Molly JohnstonNew Boston Huron11.59
1111Riley PeerMonroe Jefferson12.46
129Sam BieberChelsea12.79
1310Madison MorrisTecumseh14.61
1411Kirsten KossDearborn Divine Child14.67
1512Veronica FitzgeraldMonroe Jefferson15.74
1610Kim MillerMonroe Jefferson18.69
1711Erin StukAnn Arbor Gabriel Richard19.61
1810Megan WoelkersFlat Rock20.43
1912Katie FischerAdrian21.07
209Anna KujansuuDearborn Divine Child21.40
219Avery TurkNew Boston Huron21.64
2211Madison DuvallMonroe Jefferson23.31
2310Lauren ThompsonChelsea23.74
2412Emma AbbottTecumseh24.08
2511Trilian KrugChelsea24.59
2612Emily StevensonTecumseh25.26
2710Devyn DoreyTrenton26.87
2812Julia KauseChelsea28.34
2911Seren AngusChelsea28.65
309Mavee ClarkAdrian28.80

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Saline329595+
2Ann Arbor Pioneer41595+
3Monroe9895+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Samuel JacksonSaline1.20
211Truman JohnsonSaline1.86
312Jason WhittonSaline4.75
412Luke ButlerMonroe4.95
511Vincent Peterson SandAnn Arbor Pioneer5.26
612Michael MakuchWyandotte Roosevelt5.90
712Thomas KerberAnn Arbor Pioneer8.43
812Roman CortinaAnn Arbor Pioneer8.83
912Kyle HoffnerMonroe9.54
1011Eric OverdierAnn Arbor Pioneer10.23
1111Aaron SterkenAnn Arbor Pioneer10.47
1212Andrew McNallySaline11.85
1312Andrew GrierAnn Arbor Pioneer13.03
1411Caleb WynnAllen Park13.54
1512Elijah RoutsonSaline14.47
1612Shane PitcherSaline14.64
1711Liam BredewegAnn Arbor Pioneer15.84
1812Stewart BerryhillSaline18.44
199Pierce SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven18.45
2010Nicholas BallaTemperance Bedford24.01
2111Caden EhgotzBelleville24.34
2211Gabe BockTemperance Bedford24.62
2311Andrew FoshagMonroe24.80
2410Aidan OrtizTemperance Bedford25.48
2511Caleb DeLaGarzaAllen Park25.62
2611Matthew MizziAllen Park26.09
2710Brady BoroniecAllen Park26.84
2811Maxx AdamsMonroe27.16
2912Drake SteeleAllen Park27.67
309Dane HieronimusTemperance Bedford28.30

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Ann Arbor Pioneer2495+95+
2Saline4795+
3Temperance Bedford10494

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Emily CooperAnn Arbor Pioneer1.07
211Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer2.29
311Natalie MelloAnn Arbor Pioneer3.62
412Samantha CostWyandotte Roosevelt3.68
512Mia RoganSaline6.55
611Payton SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven8.48
711Sylvia Sanok DufalloAnn Arbor Pioneer8.60
811Laney AligSaline9.30
99Quincy BehmAnn Arbor Pioneer10.53
1012Rebekah AsselinTemperance Bedford10.89
1110Sienna SnyderSaline11.01
1210Grace RothSaline11.46
1311Lydia BowmanAnn Arbor Pioneer11.81
1410Corynn GadySaline13.06
1510Abby RothSaline13.55
1610Mackenzie SellenraadSaline14.23
1711Katie HumeAnn Arbor Pioneer15.19
1811Viktoria BloniarzMonroe16.06
1912Mya OrnerTemperance Bedford19.71
2012Luci GranataAllen Park20.21
2111Sparrow CentenoSouthgate Anderson20.99
2211Izabella LoubserTemperance Bedford23.14
2312Morgan KayMonroe25.78
2412Emma BushroeTemperance Bedford25.97
2510Anahi ChapaAllen Park26.54
2611Claire BiretaAllen Park28.42
279Anna CouryMonroe28.43
289Chloe WannerTemperance Bedford28.78
2911Lauren MorenoWyandotte Roosevelt29.35
3010Raelyn McLaughlinBrownstown Woodhaven31.75

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