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2022 Regional Projections – East Jordan Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Petoskey St. Michael379095+
2Johannesburg-Lewiston451095+
3Harbor Springs5995+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Cal BenjaminHarbor Springs1.50
212Jacob WartenbergJohannesburg-Lewiston1.54
312Macartan MoorePetoskey St. Michael3.13
412Zachary MaendelPetoskey St. Michael4.19
511Blake FoxJohannesburg-Lewiston5.48
69Lynus CadarettePetoskey St. Michael6.32
712Ronin VadenJohannesburg-Lewiston6.84
811Trevor ClarkeHarbor Springs9.03
99Henry KruzelHarbor Springs11.11
109Cody BradleyPetoskey St. Michael11.26
119Cole UpperLincoln-Alcona12.01
1212Lars HuffmanMackinaw City14.01
1310Jeremiah WittJohannesburg-Lewiston14.29
1410Russell VandermusPetoskey St. Michael14.46
1511Levi BenzingPetoskey St. Michael14.47
1611Carter UpperLincoln-Alcona17.21
1710Teddy KriegerHarbor Springs19.49
1811Patrick PurollEllsworth20.24
1911Tyler DeYoungEllsworth20.59
209Cole BregeRogers City21.36
2110Jacob ChamberlainEast Jordan21.46
229Benjamin LauberJohannesburg-Lewiston21.84
2312Cooper WhipkeyMackinaw City22.36
2411Isaac BlackEast Jordan22.40
2510Austin SneedEast Jordan22.53
2612Guy ChamberlainEast Jordan24.38
279Nicholas TraderFairview26.59
289Max VromanHarbor Springs26.67
2911Samuel FordFairview27.73
3011Jadin MixOnaway28.71

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Johannesburg-Lewiston2895+95+
2Harbor Springs3895+
3Gaylord St. Mary8895+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Allie NowakJohannesburg-Lewiston1.65
29Yolanda GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston1.89
311Miriam MurrellGaylord St. Mary3.36
410Juniper RodhamHarbor Springs4.16
512Grace ThorpeHarbor Springs4.67
611Madalyn AgrenJohannesburg-Lewiston6.98
710Tara ShouldiceHarbor Springs7.49
812Natalie ZochowskiJohannesburg-Lewiston9.64
911Rosalinda GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston10.55
1010Jane MantheiPetoskey St. Michael10.81
119Lizzie BassettHarbor Springs11.33
1211Cora MullinsJohannesburg-Lewiston11.61
1310Elke KnaufEast Jordan12.50
149Fran WarrenHarbor Springs14.34
1510McKenzie BowmanHarbor Springs15.83
1612Christine WhitakerEast Jordan17.78
178Veronica PagaPetoskey St. Michael18.10
1812Larissa HuffmanMackinaw City18.33
1912Luciana BunkerIndian River Inland Lakes19.30
2012Emma McKinleyGaylord St. Mary19.43
2112Josie BakerHarbor Springs19.73
2212Lannah EnglerIndian River Inland Lakes22.24
2312Lauren FenstermakerIndian River Inland Lakes22.46
2412Adelaida GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston22.84
2511Sydney FeaganPetoskey St. Michael25.22
2612Journey HutchinsCentral Lake26.70
2712Kayla SwitzerWolverine26.82
2810Ellie CrullOnaway27.81
2912Liberty PerryCentral Lake28.09
308Taya LongWolverine28.98

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Traverse City St. Francis3595+95+
2Clare7695+
3Elk Rapids8395+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Brad WhiteClare1.80
211Drew MooreGrayling2.44
310Josh SlocumTraverse City St. Francis3.33
412Josh KerrTraverse City St. Francis3.46
511Tucker KrummTraverse City St. Francis6.12
611Nic PorterClare6.40
711Gavin GuggemosKalkaska6.94
811Andrew KlausClare8.81
910Max WardElk Rapids10.55
1010Lewis WalterTraverse City St. Francis11.92
1111Camden MooreKalkaska12.73
1212Judge MorganTraverse City St. Francis13.11
1310Olin KasperowiczTraverse City St. Francis13.55
1410Riley PattinsonTraverse City St. Francis14.11
1512Caleb KerfootElk Rapids15.96
1611Adam WilliamsKalkaska16.05
1711Christian KerfootElk Rapids16.64
1812James DescampsCharlevoix17.36
199Qwynn DarnellElk Rapids19.50
2010David DhaseleerCharlevoix19.72
2111Seth BrownElk Rapids21.49
2211Jaymes WildfongMancelona22.05
2310Tristan DemlowGrayling25.90
249Coltrane ParyaniKalkaska28.31
259Matthew SolomonCharlevoix28.78
2611Teague HartmanGrayling30.12
2711Emerson BarnesElk Rapids30.13
289Jacob VeurinkCharlevoix30.16
2912Fox MarculewiczGrayling30.29
3010Caidan GaskillClare30.44

Girls

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Traverse City St. Francis3695+95+
2Elk Rapids5295+
3Charlevoix10495+

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Sophia RheinTraverse City St. Francis2.04
210Betsy SkendzelTraverse City St. Francis2.53
39Brynne SchulteElk Rapids2.76
411Kinsie JacquesPinconning3.20
512Ava MaginityBoyne City4.81
610Grace SlocumTraverse City St. Francis6.65
711Laina SladicsCharlevoix6.89
811Kendall StandfestElk Rapids10.23
99Anna PrayElk Rapids10.65
1010Hunter SchellenbargerElk Rapids10.88
119Olivia ForsbergClare12.42
1211Rylee DuffingTraverse City St. Francis13.67
139Paige RitchieTraverse City St. Francis13.84
1412Aaliyah CotaTawas14.14
1511Maddie GallagherTraverse City St. Francis15.02
1611Margot HagertyTraverse City St. Francis15.36
179Tierney HartmanGrayling16.87
1811Katie RohrerCharlevoix16.89
1911Jaida SchulteElk Rapids18.63
2012Rachel DescampsCharlevoix20.60
219Delaney LittleBoyne City21.02
2211Tessa WohlschlegelBeaverton21.55
239Joelle SwansonElk Rapids21.75
2411Eva PrayElk Rapids22.89
259Sage ParsonsClare26.02
269Myah LittleKalkaska27.78
279Hannah MillerCharlevoix28.85
2811Emily AngerMancelona29.04
299Cambrynne GiemBoyne City30.81
3010Catherine TaftClare34.63

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