2022 Regional Projections – East Jordan Regional

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Petoskey St. Michael	37	90	95+
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	45	10	95+
3	Harbor Springs	59		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cal Benjamin	Harbor Springs	1.50
2	12	Jacob Wartenberg	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.54
3	12	Macartan Moore	Petoskey St. Michael	3.13
4	12	Zachary Maendel	Petoskey St. Michael	4.19
5	11	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	5.48
6	9	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	6.32
7	12	Ronin Vaden	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.84
8	11	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	9.03
9	9	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	11.11
10	9	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	11.26
11	9	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	12.01
12	12	Lars Huffman	Mackinaw City	14.01
13	10	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	14.29
14	10	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	14.46
15	11	Levi Benzing	Petoskey St. Michael	14.47
16	11	Carter Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	17.21
17	10	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	19.49
18	11	Patrick Puroll	Ellsworth	20.24
19	11	Tyler DeYoung	Ellsworth	20.59
20	9	Cole Brege	Rogers City	21.36
21	10	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	21.46
22	9	Benjamin Lauber	Johannesburg-Lewiston	21.84
23	12	Cooper Whipkey	Mackinaw City	22.36
24	11	Isaac Black	East Jordan	22.40
25	10	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	22.53
26	12	Guy Chamberlain	East Jordan	24.38
27	9	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	26.59
28	9	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	26.67
29	11	Samuel Ford	Fairview	27.73
30	11	Jadin Mix	Onaway	28.71

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	28	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	38		95+
3	Gaylord St. Mary	88		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.65
2	9	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.89
3	11	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	3.36
4	10	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	4.16
5	12	Grace Thorpe	Harbor Springs	4.67
6	11	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.98
7	10	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	7.49
8	12	Natalie Zochowski	Johannesburg-Lewiston	9.64
9	11	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	10.55
10	10	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	10.81
11	9	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	11.33
12	11	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	11.61
13	10	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	12.50
14	9	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	14.34
15	10	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	15.83
16	12	Christine Whitaker	East Jordan	17.78
17	8	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	18.10
18	12	Larissa Huffman	Mackinaw City	18.33
19	12	Luciana Bunker	Indian River Inland Lakes	19.30
20	12	Emma McKinley	Gaylord St. Mary	19.43
21	12	Josie Baker	Harbor Springs	19.73
22	12	Lannah Engler	Indian River Inland Lakes	22.24
23	12	Lauren Fenstermaker	Indian River Inland Lakes	22.46
24	12	Adelaida Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	22.84
25	11	Sydney Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	25.22
26	12	Journey Hutchins	Central Lake	26.70
27	12	Kayla Switzer	Wolverine	26.82
28	10	Ellie Crull	Onaway	27.81
29	12	Liberty Perry	Central Lake	28.09
30	8	Taya Long	Wolverine	28.98

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	35	95+	95+
2	Clare	76		95+
3	Elk Rapids	83		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brad White	Clare	1.80
2	11	Drew Moore	Grayling	2.44
3	10	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	3.33
4	12	Josh Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	3.46
5	11	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	6.12
6	11	Nic Porter	Clare	6.40
7	11	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	6.94
8	11	Andrew Klaus	Clare	8.81
9	10	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	10.55
10	10	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	11.92
11	11	Camden Moore	Kalkaska	12.73
12	12	Judge Morgan	Traverse City St. Francis	13.11
13	10	Olin Kasperowicz	Traverse City St. Francis	13.55
14	10	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	14.11
15	12	Caleb Kerfoot	Elk Rapids	15.96
16	11	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	16.05
17	11	Christian Kerfoot	Elk Rapids	16.64
18	12	James Descamps	Charlevoix	17.36
19	9	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	19.50
20	10	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	19.72
21	11	Seth Brown	Elk Rapids	21.49
22	11	Jaymes Wildfong	Mancelona	22.05
23	10	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	25.90
24	9	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	28.31
25	9	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	28.78
26	11	Teague Hartman	Grayling	30.12
27	11	Emerson Barnes	Elk Rapids	30.13
28	9	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	30.16
29	12	Fox Marculewicz	Grayling	30.29
30	10	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	30.44

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	36	95+	95+
2	Elk Rapids	52		95+
3	Charlevoix	104		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Sophia Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	2.04
2	10	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	2.53
3	9	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	2.76
4	11	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	3.20
5	12	Ava Maginity	Boyne City	4.81
6	10	Grace Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	6.65
7	11	Laina Sladics	Charlevoix	6.89
8	11	Kendall Standfest	Elk Rapids	10.23
9	9	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	10.65
10	10	Hunter Schellenbarger	Elk Rapids	10.88
11	9	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	12.42
12	11	Rylee Duffing	Traverse City St. Francis	13.67
13	9	Paige Ritchie	Traverse City St. Francis	13.84
14	12	Aaliyah Cota	Tawas	14.14
15	11	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	15.02
16	11	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	15.36
17	9	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	16.87
18	11	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	16.89
19	11	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	18.63
20	12	Rachel Descamps	Charlevoix	20.60
21	9	Delaney Little	Boyne City	21.02
22	11	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	21.55
23	9	Joelle Swanson	Elk Rapids	21.75
24	11	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	22.89
25	9	Sage Parsons	Clare	26.02
26	9	Myah Little	Kalkaska	27.78
27	9	Hannah Miller	Charlevoix	28.85
28	11	Emily Anger	Mancelona	29.04
29	9	Cambrynne Giem	Boyne City	30.81
30	10	Catherine Taft	Clare	34.63