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Upper Peninsula State Finals Projections

First off, thanks to all and any Upper Peninsula folks that followed me along throughout the season. This took too long to happen, but I can’t go back in time and make up for the years lost not covering the sport in your peninsula.

As I don’t have any skin in the game, it’s a bit tougher to pay attention and stay up to date on the storylines in a place so far away. I think next year, instead of getting to UP meets as an afterthought, I’ll force myself to rate them first, then hone in on any potential divisional battles that may exist.

As with anything I do, I’m in a constant state of self-critique, be certain next year’s version of this will be better than 2022’s iteration.

As with the Macomb County projections last week, I was able to run simulations on each division. A bit more on a Monte Carlo simulation, this time from the godfather, TullyRunners. Working on this today actually was helpful, I think I figured out a process that’ll let me do the same for regionals, then expand upon it for the four Lower Peninsula Finals (in which I’ll have a week of… free time?).

DIVISION ONE

Boys

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Marquette25100100
2Sault Ste. Marie78100
3Negaunee98
4Houghton105
5Gladstone110

Projected PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Carson VanderschaafMarquette1.02
212Drew HughesGladstone3.15
312Colin VanderschaafMarquette3.54
49Gabe LitznerSault Ste. Marie4.02
512Cody AldridgeSault Ste. Marie4.35
612Brady KetzenbergerMarquette5.39
710Chase ThomsenMarquette7.50
811Cullen PapinMarquette8.03
912Adam WhiteMarquette9.26
109Peter ArgeropoulosMarquette9.77
1112Judge AndersonNegaunee11.72
1212John PlaxcoNegaunee12.24
1310Isaiah LawsonHoughton13.22
1412Cyrus HamlinHoughton13.85
1511Tanner HowesGladstone15.04
1610Aaron HughesGladstone15.51
1710Birk SeagrenHoughton17.03
1812James DankNegaunee18.35
199Simon JaklinNegaunee19.53
2012Logan HaskinsSault Ste. Marie20.32

Girls

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Marquette29100100
2Houghton52100
3Sault Ste. Marie109
4Calumet118
5Escanaba119

Projected PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Cassandra GallagherSault Ste. Marie1.89
210Monet ArgeropoulosMarquette3.10
39Tessa RautiolaHoughton3.70
49Ella FureMarquette3.83
512Endla HarrisNegaunee4.91
611Abby HarmaMarquette5.33
710Tessa BrunsMarquette7.23
810Lily RossHoughton7.29
912Claire FilpusHoughton9.40
1012Attica BrandtMenominee10.56
1112Elodie MalherbeMarquette12.05
1210Alisha MabieEscanaba12.21
1311Ayla MillerHoughton14.71
1412Courtney LarsonMarquette14.74
1511Annabelle NeumeierEscanaba15.00
1611Retta BoburkaIshpeming Westwood16.10
1712Kiira BergCalumet17.67
1810Ida LarsenMarquette18.93
1912Jewel LauxHoughton19.08
2011Calla ArmstrongSault Ste. Marie19.61

DIVISION TWO

Boys

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Painesdale-Jeffers25100100
2Ironwood5192
3Manistique548

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Joey LauzonIronwood1.79
29Cameron AndersonPainesdale-Jeffers2.42
312Tavin LarsonPainesdale-Jeffers2.51
412Alex (Alexzander) KorpelaIronwood4.10
59Landon LarsonPainesdale-Jeffers4.39
610Brit HeinonenPainesdale-Jeffers5.89
712Grant MasonManistique7.34
810Ben GilroyManistique7.87
910Levi NichollsIshpeming10.43
1010Thomas JenkinsGwinn10.53
1111Trayton HelminenPainesdale-Jeffers12.79
1210Zach SmithIronwood12.95
1311Jordan LibertoskiWakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer13.16
1410Weston KnaufPowers North Central13.24
1511Matthew JenkinsGwinn14.43
1612Jesse SampsonPowers North Central15.04
179Kasen HelminenPainesdale-Jeffers16.75
1810Joey GirouxIshpeming19.31
1910Alex PipkornPowers North Central19.52
2012Jacob BerryManistique19.80

Girls

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Hancock26100100
2Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer4795
3Powers North Central585

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Lola KorpiIshpeming1.00
212Lilley SmithIronwood2.48
312Natalie StoneWakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer3.53
49Maya CarlsonManistique4.54
510Aubrey SmithIronwood5.08
612Maylie KilpelaHancock6.03
710Hope VaroniPowers North Central8.08
810Ella KeranenHancock8.32
910Laynie KorpiIshpeming8.75
1010Rayna TowlesHancock8.88
1112Liana BergHancock10.67
1211Wisteria BradySt. Ignace12.27
1310Calista WatchhornManistique13.04
1410Alyssa ShirkeyWakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer13.76
1510Keira GrahamWakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer15.25
169Macy BeckerSt. Ignace17.26
1712Logan DesRochersBaraga17.46
1811Ellie DeleneBaraga18.03
1912Clara GilroyManistique19.24
2010Emily MooreHancock20.45

DIVISION THREE

Boys

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Engadine675592
2Stephenson713280
3Dollar Bay81919
4Republic-Michigamme9649
5Munising104

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Amos NorlandDollar Bay1.47
210Trevor NolanMunising1.96
310Joseph CarlsonHoly Name3.83
410Kalvin KyttaChassell5.23
510Danny GossMunising5.63
612Griffin BrownStephenson6.80
712Conrad SpielesEngadine8.25
810Joshua GuantDollar Bay9.84
911Ethan LawrenceRepublic-Michigamme10.94
1011Brode HuntRudyard11.97
119Duane KrenekEngadine12.71
1210Dakota TaylorEngadine14.45
1312Jacob RossStephenson14.81
1412Ethyn LusardiStephenson16.14
159Canon KuntzeStephenson18.39
1610Ethan EdwardsEngadine19.30
1712Brent LaginaNorway20.85
1811Quinn SociaPickford21.21
199Kenneth AmbuehlRepublic-Michigamme21.61
2010Sam RahillyNewberry21.98

Girls

PlaceTeamProjected ScoreProjected Win %Projected Top 2%
1Munising25100100
2Stephenson6990
3Eben Jct. Superior Central8510
4Engadine103
5Rapid River109

RankGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
19Samantha TaylorNewberry1.02
211Kaylen ClarkNewberry2.37
312Monique BrissonMunising3.04
49Lauren AdamsNorway4.79
512Hattie CotaMunising5.06
612Lilianna CasonLes Cheneaux7.19
711Kayela PutnamStephenson9.03
812Leah FrenchEngadine9.91
99Kiera McDonnaldEben Jct. Superior Central11.41
109Olivia CoteyMunising12.07
119Faith CappaertStephenson12.27
1210Dayne BehningMunising12.46
1312Taylor AdamsNorway13.32
1410Emma MitchellRudyard13.77
1511Taryn MakiDollar Bay13.96
1611Julia PrunickMunising14.65
1710Kate MattsonMunising17.01
1812Elizabeth HollowayMunising18.42
1912Madisen BegovacEben Jct. Superior Central20.12
2011Joelle BeaudoStephenson20.33

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