Upper Peninsula State Finals Projections

First off, thanks to all and any Upper Peninsula folks that followed me along throughout the season. This took too long to happen, but I can’t go back in time and make up for the years lost not covering the sport in your peninsula.

As I don’t have any skin in the game, it’s a bit tougher to pay attention and stay up to date on the storylines in a place so far away. I think next year, instead of getting to UP meets as an afterthought, I’ll force myself to rate them first, then hone in on any potential divisional battles that may exist.

As with anything I do, I’m in a constant state of self-critique, be certain next year’s version of this will be better than 2022’s iteration.

As with the Macomb County projections last week, I was able to run simulations on each division. A bit more on a Monte Carlo simulation, this time from the godfather, TullyRunners. Working on this today actually was helpful, I think I figured out a process that’ll let me do the same for regionals, then expand upon it for the four Lower Peninsula Finals (in which I’ll have a week of… free time?).

DIVISION ONE

Boys

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Marquette	25	100	100
2	Sault Ste. Marie	78		100
3	Negaunee	98
4	Houghton	105
5	Gladstone	110

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Carson Vanderschaaf	Marquette	1.02
2	12	Drew Hughes	Gladstone	3.15
3	12	Colin Vanderschaaf	Marquette	3.54
4	9	Gabe Litzner	Sault Ste. Marie	4.02
5	12	Cody Aldridge	Sault Ste. Marie	4.35
6	12	Brady Ketzenberger	Marquette	5.39
7	10	Chase Thomsen	Marquette	7.50
8	11	Cullen Papin	Marquette	8.03
9	12	Adam White	Marquette	9.26
10	9	Peter Argeropoulos	Marquette	9.77
11	12	Judge Anderson	Negaunee	11.72
12	12	John Plaxco	Negaunee	12.24
13	10	Isaiah Lawson	Houghton	13.22
14	12	Cyrus Hamlin	Houghton	13.85
15	11	Tanner Howes	Gladstone	15.04
16	10	Aaron Hughes	Gladstone	15.51
17	10	Birk Seagren	Houghton	17.03
18	12	James Dank	Negaunee	18.35
19	9	Simon Jaklin	Negaunee	19.53
20	12	Logan Haskins	Sault Ste. Marie	20.32

Girls

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Marquette	29	100	100
2	Houghton	52		100
3	Sault Ste. Marie	109
4	Calumet	118
5	Escanaba	119

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cassandra Gallagher	Sault Ste. Marie	1.89
2	10	Monet Argeropoulos	Marquette	3.10
3	9	Tessa Rautiola	Houghton	3.70
4	9	Ella Fure	Marquette	3.83
5	12	Endla Harris	Negaunee	4.91
6	11	Abby Harma	Marquette	5.33
7	10	Tessa Bruns	Marquette	7.23
8	10	Lily Ross	Houghton	7.29
9	12	Claire Filpus	Houghton	9.40
10	12	Attica Brandt	Menominee	10.56
11	12	Elodie Malherbe	Marquette	12.05
12	10	Alisha Mabie	Escanaba	12.21
13	11	Ayla Miller	Houghton	14.71
14	12	Courtney Larson	Marquette	14.74
15	11	Annabelle Neumeier	Escanaba	15.00
16	11	Retta Boburka	Ishpeming Westwood	16.10
17	12	Kiira Berg	Calumet	17.67
18	10	Ida Larsen	Marquette	18.93
19	12	Jewel Laux	Houghton	19.08
20	11	Calla Armstrong	Sault Ste. Marie	19.61

DIVISION TWO

Boys

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Painesdale-Jeffers	25	100	100
2	Ironwood	51		92
3	Manistique	54		8

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Joey Lauzon	Ironwood	1.79
2	9	Cameron Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	2.42
3	12	Tavin Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	2.51
4	12	Alex (Alexzander) Korpela	Ironwood	4.10
5	9	Landon Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	4.39
6	10	Brit Heinonen	Painesdale-Jeffers	5.89
7	12	Grant Mason	Manistique	7.34
8	10	Ben Gilroy	Manistique	7.87
9	10	Levi Nicholls	Ishpeming	10.43
10	10	Thomas Jenkins	Gwinn	10.53
11	11	Trayton Helminen	Painesdale-Jeffers	12.79
12	10	Zach Smith	Ironwood	12.95
13	11	Jordan Libertoski	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	13.16
14	10	Weston Knauf	Powers North Central	13.24
15	11	Matthew Jenkins	Gwinn	14.43
16	12	Jesse Sampson	Powers North Central	15.04
17	9	Kasen Helminen	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.75
18	10	Joey Giroux	Ishpeming	19.31
19	10	Alex Pipkorn	Powers North Central	19.52
20	12	Jacob Berry	Manistique	19.80

Girls

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Hancock	26	100	100
2	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	47		95
3	Powers North Central	58		5

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lola Korpi	Ishpeming	1.00
2	12	Lilley Smith	Ironwood	2.48
3	12	Natalie Stone	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	3.53
4	9	Maya Carlson	Manistique	4.54
5	10	Aubrey Smith	Ironwood	5.08
6	12	Maylie Kilpela	Hancock	6.03
7	10	Hope Varoni	Powers North Central	8.08
8	10	Ella Keranen	Hancock	8.32
9	10	Laynie Korpi	Ishpeming	8.75
10	10	Rayna Towles	Hancock	8.88
11	12	Liana Berg	Hancock	10.67
12	11	Wisteria Brady	St. Ignace	12.27
13	10	Calista Watchhorn	Manistique	13.04
14	10	Alyssa Shirkey	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	13.76
15	10	Keira Graham	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	15.25
16	9	Macy Becker	St. Ignace	17.26
17	12	Logan DesRochers	Baraga	17.46
18	11	Ellie Delene	Baraga	18.03
19	12	Clara Gilroy	Manistique	19.24
20	10	Emily Moore	Hancock	20.45

DIVISION THREE

Boys

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Engadine	67	55	92
2	Stephenson	71	32	80
3	Dollar Bay	81	9	19
4	Republic-Michigamme	96	4	9
5	Munising	104

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Amos Norland	Dollar Bay	1.47
2	10	Trevor Nolan	Munising	1.96
3	10	Joseph Carlson	Holy Name	3.83
4	10	Kalvin Kytta	Chassell	5.23
5	10	Danny Goss	Munising	5.63
6	12	Griffin Brown	Stephenson	6.80
7	12	Conrad Spieles	Engadine	8.25
8	10	Joshua Guant	Dollar Bay	9.84
9	11	Ethan Lawrence	Republic-Michigamme	10.94
10	11	Brode Hunt	Rudyard	11.97
11	9	Duane Krenek	Engadine	12.71
12	10	Dakota Taylor	Engadine	14.45
13	12	Jacob Ross	Stephenson	14.81
14	12	Ethyn Lusardi	Stephenson	16.14
15	9	Canon Kuntze	Stephenson	18.39
16	10	Ethan Edwards	Engadine	19.30
17	12	Brent Lagina	Norway	20.85
18	11	Quinn Socia	Pickford	21.21
19	9	Kenneth Ambuehl	Republic-Michigamme	21.61
20	10	Sam Rahilly	Newberry	21.98

Girls

Place	Team	Projected Score	Projected Win %	Projected Top 2%
1	Munising	25	100	100
2	Stephenson	69		90
3	Eben Jct. Superior Central	85		10
4	Engadine	103
5	Rapid River	109

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Samantha Taylor	Newberry	1.02
2	11	Kaylen Clark	Newberry	2.37
3	12	Monique Brisson	Munising	3.04
4	9	Lauren Adams	Norway	4.79
5	12	Hattie Cota	Munising	5.06
6	12	Lilianna Cason	Les Cheneaux	7.19
7	11	Kayela Putnam	Stephenson	9.03
8	12	Leah French	Engadine	9.91
9	9	Kiera McDonnald	Eben Jct. Superior Central	11.41
10	9	Olivia Cotey	Munising	12.07
11	9	Faith Cappaert	Stephenson	12.27
12	10	Dayne Behning	Munising	12.46
13	12	Taylor Adams	Norway	13.32
14	10	Emma Mitchell	Rudyard	13.77
15	11	Taryn Maki	Dollar Bay	13.96
16	11	Julia Prunick	Munising	14.65
17	10	Kate Mattson	Munising	17.01
18	12	Elizabeth Holloway	Munising	18.42
19	12	Madisen Begovac	Eben Jct. Superior Central	20.12
20	11	Joelle Beaudo	Stephenson	20.33