Blog

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	42	95+	95+
2	Carson City-Crystal	81		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	100		91
4	Webberville	118		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	1.15
2	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	2.02
3	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	3.80
4	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	5.08
5	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	5.35
6	12	Deegan Bodell	Carson City-Crystal	6.15
7	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	6.91
8	11	Jobe Skaff	Novi Christian Academy	10.68
9	11	Reily Henderson	Whitmore Lake	11.37
10	11	Trevor Feldpausch	Fowler	11.48
11	9	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	12.45
12	9	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	12.94
13	9	Quentin Smith	Fowler	13.98
14	9	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	14.64
15	12	Dennis Wilson	Novi Christian Academy	16.32
16	9	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	16.47
17	12	Adam Moore	Plymouth Christian Academy	16.85
18	12	Drew Peckens	Webberville	18.87
19	10	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	19.65
20	12	Brayden Clark	Carson City-Crystal	19.80
21	12	Vincenzo Lewan	Plymouth Christian Academy	20.00
22	12	Martin White	Portland St. Patrick	21.86
23	9	Tyler Langfeldt	Potterville	22.17
24	9	Gavin Howery	Webberville	22.43
25	10	Ronaldo Rivas	Whitmore Lake	24.81
26	9	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	25.94
27	11	Liam Wilder	Webberville	26.03
28	12	Oisin O’Grady	Carson City-Crystal	26.06
29	12	Jacob Stevens	Carson City-Crystal	27.61
30	11	Ryan Williams	Novi Christian Academy	30.75

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	26	95+	95+
2	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	89		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	110		53
4	Portland St. Patrick	113		46

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	1.01
2	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	3.11
3	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	3.88
4	11	Ellayna Meredith	Portland St. Patrick	4.14
5	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	5.54
6	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	8.29
7	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	8.50
8	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	8.55
9	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	8.74
10	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.86
11	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	9.51
12	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	12.04
13	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	12.50
14	11	Mya Guillermo	Novi Christian Academy	14.48
15	11	Eve Herrgott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	17.13
16	12	Grace Piggott	Fowler	18.00
17	–	Grace Bell	Novi Christian Academy	18.85
18	10	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	19.19
19	12	Alyse Felix	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	19.55
20	9	Alaina Driver	Potterville	20.86
21	12	Stephanie Suran	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	22.15
22	12	Corinne Ritter	Lansing Christian	24.11
23	11	Ciara Parsons	Whitmore Lake	24.14
24	11	Grace O’Hare	Fowler	24.77
25	9	Clara Groen	Plymouth Christian Academy	24.95
26	8	Ezrielle Martin	Livingston Christian	27.02
27	9	Tabitha Norris	St. Charles	28.85
28	11	Isabelle Kissane	Portland St. Patrick	29.37
29	10	Audrey Johnson	Livingston Christian	31.25
30	10	Emily Mueller	St. Charles	31.69

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	76	71	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	84	10	95+
3	Lutheran Westland	87	19	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	1.46
2	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	1.58
3	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	3.62
4	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	4.50
5	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	5.63
6	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	6.03
7	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	8.96
8	9	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	9.53
9	10	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	10.31
10	9	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	10.91
11	12	Arline Lile	Royal Oak Shrine	11.54
12	11	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	11.67
13	12	Matthew Zammit Jr.	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	12.41
14	11	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	14.33
15	11	AJ Owen	Birmingham Roeper	14.55
16	12	Dean Moshier	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	18.38
17	12	Brayden McKay	Allen Park Cabrini	18.68
18	10	Seth Slater	Southfield Christian	19.27
19	12	Samuel Wenzel	Austin Catholic	19.98
20	11	Tommy Abazi	Southfield Christian	20.26
21	11	Max Procissi	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	22.35
22	12	Logan Eiden	Allen Park Cabrini	22.56
23	9	Justin Grissom	Lutheran Westland	25.21
24	11	Nathan Betke	Lutheran Westland	26.04
25	12	Mitchell Graveline	Royal Oak Shrine	26.98
26	12	Dominic Catallo	Lutheran Westland	27.85
27	11	Jeffrey McGuire	Lutheran Westland	27.96
28	12	Luke Witte	Lutheran Westland	28.01
29	11	Austin Ahler	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	29.29
30	10	Jack Luzynski	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	29.54

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	45	94	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	55	6	95+
3	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	60		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	1.10
2	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	2.41
3	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	2.50
4	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	4.81
5	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	5.68
6	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	6.86
7	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	7.96
8	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	8.08
9	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	9.50
10	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	9.61
11	11	Morgan McNally	Academy of the Sacred Heart	11.80
12	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran Westland	12.07
13	10	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	12.70
14	10	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	15.87
15	12	Maura Gum	Royal Oak Shrine	17.11
16	11	Kendall Zaliwski	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.07
17	10	Isobel Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	18.29
18	10	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	18.54
19	11	Grace Ligon	Southfield Christian	19.24
20	11	Karis Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.29
21	11	Nicole Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	20.02
22	12	Emma Burrell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	22.77
23	9	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.88
24	9	Madisyn Smith	Allen Park Cabrini	24.29
25	10	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	24.56
26	9	Maya Ferguson	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	25.74
27	12	Elaine Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	27.08
28	10	Rita Luhring	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	27.56
29	12	Meg Gleeson	Royal Oak Shrine	28.14
30	12	Lillian Paschke	Riverview Gabriel Richard	30.11

Boys and Girls Adjustment: +6

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Noah Lambers	16:13.8	Holland	193.4
12	Chase Holwerda	16:29.9	Zeeland West	188.0
12	Caleb Branch	16:40.1	Muskegon Mona Shores	184.6
12	Caleb Smith	16:41.2	Zeeland West	184.3
12	Adrian Castillo	16:50.8	Holland	181.1
12	Gavin Wiersma	16:58.6	Zeeland East	178.5
12	Nathan Golding	16:59.1	Zeeland West	178.3
9	Robert Dodd	17:04.0	Zeeland West	176.7
11	Jaxon Allen	17:08.4	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	175.2
11	Jack DeKruyter	17:14.7	Zeeland West	173.1
11	Carson Hauch	17:18.3	Zeeland West	171.9
12	Nick Riemersma	17:21.5	Zeeland East	170.8
9	Keagan Smith	17:24.1	Zeeland West	170.0
10	Caden Guffey	17:24.8	Zeeland East	169.7
10	Kye Grant	17:25.8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	169.4
11	Harrison Kooyer	17:40.1	Holland	164.6
11	Will Parsekian	17:48.7	Muskegon Mona Shores	161.8
11	Dylan Walters	17:52.4	Zeeland East	160.5
11	Chace Laarman	17:59.2	Zeeland West	158.3
11	Tate Bradley	18:02.7	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	157.1
11	Aidan Kreps	18:03.1	Muskegon Mona Shores	157.0
9	Samuel Ashby	18:04.8	Zeeland West	156.4
12	Owen Cousins	18:08.9	Zeeland West	155.0
9	Reid Cousins	18:18.6	Zeeland West	151.8
12	Dylan Chmura	18:22.2	Holland	150.6
10	Vaire Vanderwalle	18:24.5	Muskegon Mona Shores	149.8
10	Sam Downing	18:37.5	Zeeland East	145.5
11	Andrew Dalman	18:37.7	Zeeland West	145.4
9	Ethan Dalman	18:41.2	Zeeland West	144.3
9	Jack Yonkman	18:44.4	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	143.2
10	Jamie Neel	18:44.5	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	143.2
12	Preston Stema	18:45.9	Zeeland East	142.7
12	Brayden Snyder	18:47.1	Holland	142.3
9	Liam Hallack	18:54.7	Zeeland West	139.8
12	Colton Ruster	18:56.0	Zeeland West	139.3
11	Joseph Till	18:56.4	Zeeland West	139.2
12	Quinton Dixon	18:59.1	GR_Union	138.3
10	Jonathan Greenhoe	19:03.8	Zeeland West	136.7
11	Brady VerBeek	19:04.9	Zeeland West	136.4
9	Alessandro Castillo	19:05.5	Holland	136.2
10	erick Tenorio-Bedolla	19:10.5	GR_Union	134.5
10	Dylan Veltema	19:16.3	Zeeland East	132.6
11	Collin Khatir	19:21.4	Muskegon Mona Shores	130.9
11	Aaiden Gillespie	19:25.2	Zeeland East	129.6
9	Eli Lewis	19:28.8	Muskegon Mona Shores	128.4
11	Ethan Nguyen	19:30.9	Zeeland East	127.7
9	Hayden Fox	19:33.4	Muskegon Mona Shores	126.9
10	Howie Herrygers	19:33.6	Zeeland West	126.8
11	Dominic Cranmer	19:36.0	Zeeland West	126.0
10	Daniel Dunn	19:44.1	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	123.3
11	Dominik Lamberts	19:50.2	GR_Union	121.3
11	Henry Mulder	19:52.4	Holland	120.5
11	Mason Stafford	19:55.5	Muskegon Mona Shores	119.5
11	Luke Nagelkirk	19:57.8	Zeeland East	118.7
12	Max Eitzen	20:03.1	GR_Union	117.0
9	Issak Stitt	20:08.1	Zeeland East	115.3
9	Cole Hansen	20:08.2	Muskegon Mona Shores	115.3
9	Joe Michmerhuizen	20:08.3	Zeeland East	115.2
9	samson kik	20:09.2	GR_Union	114.9
9	Sam Taylor	20:09.8	Zeeland West	114.7
10	Jeff Dewitt	20:14.5	Zeeland East	113.2
12	Connor Bing	20:22.5	Zeeland East	110.5
11	Landon Sandee	20:28.0	GR_Union	108.7
12	Jackson Voss	20:31.3	Holland	107.6
10	Oscar Andrade-Nava	20:32.2	Wyoming	107.3
9	Jakoby Moore	20:38.5	Zeeland West	105.2
11	Theo Stack	20:40.8	GR_Union	104.4
10	Caleb Anderson	20:45.0	Wyoming	103.0
10	Max Stefanski	20:58.3	GR_Union	98.6
12	Leon Wilondja	21:02.4	GR_Union	97.2
12	Victor Wu	21:03.4	Muskegon Mona Shores	96.9
10	Noah Tillman	21:16.6	Zeeland East	92.5
9	Clayton Ramsdell	21:17.2	Zeeland West	92.3
11	Wyatt Dixon	21:17.3	GR_Union	92.2
9	Lucas Pastucha	21:41.9	Muskegon Mona Shores	84.0
11	Ben Post	21:45.2	Zeeland East	82.9
9	Dylan Sturr	21:51.2	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	80.9
10	Gage Bouwman	21:56.0	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	79.3
12	Jason Picon	21:56.9	GR_Union	79.0
11	Alex Stocke	22:00.0	Zeeland West	78.0
9	Jeffrey Church	22:18.8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	71.8
9	Josiah Muller	22:20.6	Zeeland East	71.1
9	Corbin Ruiz	22:25.8	Zeeland East	69.4
9	Gabe Arredondo	22:31.6	Zeeland West	67.5
12	Brian Underhill II	22:34.8	Zeeland West	66.4
9	Pablo Ovalle jr	22:38.5	GR_Union	65.2
10	Kamaladdin Ghaznawi	22:40.0	GR_Union	64.7
9	Henry Robinette	22:41.3	GR_Union	64.2
9	Tyler Davis	22:51.3	Wyoming	60.9
12	David Day	22:58.4	Muskegon	58.5
11	Jesus Rios-Garcia	22:58.5	Wyoming	58.5
11	Nate Darling	23:04.4	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	56.5
9	Trevor Plowman	23:06.4	Zeeland West	55.9
12	Alex DeWitt	23:07.4	Zeeland East	55.5
11	Timothy Stack	23:09.2	GR_Union	54.9
11	Landon Hershey	23:30.4	Muskegon Mona Shores	47.9
11	James Hollister	23:31.1	GR_Union	47.6
9	Aiden Simon	23:39.8	Muskegon Mona Shores	44.7
9	James Martin	23:43.9	Muskegon	43.4
11	Justin Watson	25:28.2	Muskegon	8.6

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
10	Jordyn Klaasen	19:03.3	Zeeland West	136.9
11	Allison Kuzma	19:21.2	Zeeland East	130.9
12	Bella Hoffer	19:30.9	Zeeland West	127.7
9	Ellery Horness	19:41.0	Muskegon Mona Shores	124.3
12	Alisa Mason	19:42.3	Holland	123.9
9	Meredith Cook	19:59.9	Zeeland East	118.0
10	Emma Drnek	20:08.9	Zeeland East	115.0
12	Robyn Hunt	20:15.5	Muskegon Mona Shores	112.8
11	Tessa Rindfliesch	20:31.0	Zeeland West	107.7
9	Charlene Kuras	20:35.9	Zeeland East	106.0
9	Jersi Bilek	20:38.2	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	105.3
9	Megan Kuzma	20:40.9	Zeeland East	104.4
11	Addie Grill	20:44.0	Zeeland East	103.3
12	Stephanie Dodd	20:56.4	Zeeland West	99.2
12	Destiny Douglas	21:08.3	Muskegon Mona Shores	95.2
12	Heidi Spahr	21:12.0	Zeeland West	94.0
10	Ambria DePoy	21:13.5	Holland	93.5
9	Taryn DiLaura	21:18.6	Zeeland East	91.8
10	Emma Margaron	21:23.6	Holland	90.1
11	Abby Wilson	21:33.1	Holland	87.0
11	Lilly Houle	21:46.9	Muskegon Mona Shores	82.4
12	Meredith Walters	21:48.4	Holland	81.9
12	Isabella Cifuentes	21:51.7	Zeeland West	80.8
12	Hayley Heinrich	21:52.5	Zeeland East	80.5
9	Libby Post	21:52.9	Zeeland East	80.4
11	Emy Smith	21:53.8	Zeeland West	80.1
11	Greta Hondorp	22:01.6	Zeeland West	77.5
9	Kendall Braginton	22:18.0	Muskegon Mona Shores	72.0
10	Julie Frymire	22:20.1	Muskegon Mona Shores	71.3
12	Elise Meister	22:21.2	Zeeland East	71.0
10	Diamond Madison	22:24.9	Muskegon Mona Shores	69.7
11	Hannah Lewis	22:25.2	Zeeland East	69.6
12	Tessa Bruizeman	22:25.4	Zeeland West	69.5
9	Sophie Koleszar	22:25.7	Zeeland East	69.4
10	Audrey Durham	22:26.3	Zeeland East	69.2
9	Evie Kleinheksel	22:40.1	Zeeland West	64.6
12	Samantha Hill	23:00.7	Muskegon Mona Shores	57.8
10	Adrienne Fluette	23:01.3	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	57.6
10	Vivian Idziak	23:08.2	GR_Union	55.3
12	Lindsey Peterson	23:09.9	Zeeland West	54.7
12	Samantha VanDort	23:24.2	Zeeland West	49.9
12	Eva Shinabery	23:27.8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	48.7
11	Ava Morin	23:31.8	Muskegon Mona Shores	47.4
12	Sarah Robinette	23:31.9	GR_Union	47.4
11	Caroline Chardoul	23:33.9	GR_Union	46.7
10	Madelyn VanDort	23:38.7	Zeeland West	45.1
12	Cienna Billingsley	23:44.8	Muskegon Mona Shores	43.1
12	Alison Jakobi	23:45.5	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	42.8
10	Sarah Patterson	23:49.3	Muskegon Mona Shores	41.6
11	Rylee Boersen	23:51.8	Holland	40.7
10	Lauren Molag	23:54.5	Zeeland West	39.8
12	Molly Macina	23:54.8	Zeeland East	39.7
9	Keeley Cole	23:56.6	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	39.1
9	Jillian Saxton	23:59.6	Muskegon Mona Shores	38.1
11	Emma Larkin	24:19.8	Zeeland West	31.4
9	Meg VanDam	24:29.5	Zeeland East	28.2
9	Bella Cole	24:30.0	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	28.0
9	Hope Latsch	24:32.9	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	27.0
9	Julia Till	24:34.1	Zeeland West	26.6
11	Caiti Grant	24:42.5	Zeeland West	23.8
11	Eliza Dengerink-Van Til	25:07.1	GR_Union	15.6
12	Avery Walkotten	25:17.4	Holland	12.2
11	Arlyn Torralba	25:22.4	Zeeland West	10.5
11	Natalie Cook	25:42.1	Zeeland East	4.0