Blog

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 26-3

Teams

Algonac
Brown City
Capac
Clawson
Detroit Central
Detroit Collegiate Prep
Detroit Community
Detroit Edison PSA
Detroit Jalen Rose Leadership Academy
Detroit Loyola
Detroit Pershing
Madison Heights Bishop Foley
Memphis
New Haven
Redford Westfield Prep
Richmond
Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
Royal Oak Shrine
Southfield Bradford Academy
Warren Michigan Collegiate
University Liggett

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

None.

Highest Rated Seniors

After a freshman year where he broke 17:00 and a sophomore year where he did not, Tyler roared back with an impressive junior year.  Multiple honors, including 7th in Macomb County, 18th in the State, and Regional champion.  Along with a nice, shiny new PR of 16:34.

Mitch has been following Jack Decker for a few years, now it’s time to lead.  Last season featured some significant jumps, ones that we could see coming after his sophomore track season.  His 17:16 at Gabriel Richard was almost a 50 second drop from 2018.

Dennis represents yet another case of kids taking their finish from the previous year and turning it into a positive the next year.  43rd at his regional in 2018 to 15th in 2019.  Breaking 18:00 after barely sneaking under 20:00 as a sophomore.  He’s been in the store recently and has high aspirations for this year, and with that improvement, I believe in him.

Career Achievement

Two-time State qualifier here (Hess Hathaway in 2018, Goodells in 2019).  Consistently has been a low-18 guy in the championship season, but was able to achieve a PR in his 13th place finish last year.

Anyone Else?

Credit to the Jahlani and the Edison folks for having a successful program in a city that recently, hasn’t had much distance running prowess.  Jahlani was consistently a mid-18 performer last year, which should put him in the discussion for a state qualifying spot. 

Mathew ran a significant PR on an ideal day at Chandler Park to nab an All-Region honor.  Signs of that race were apparent in earlier races, such as his 4th place finish in the MIAC. 

Brendan didn’t even run varsity as a freshman at regionals.  Last year, he was a key contributor to Foley’s team victory.  He was a mid-18 guy after not breaking 20:00 as a freshman. 

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

None.

Highest Rated Seniors

In her first cross country season, as a junior, Riley showed a steadiness often seen with those that have been around the sport for a while.  She ran around the 23:00 mark quite often, dipping below it at Muskrat Classic and State Finals.

Last season, Jasmine narrowly missed on an All-Region honor, but given a comparison to 2018, it almost seems like a given.  Jasmine competed in the 22’s all year, when it was tough for her to break 25:00 as a sophomore.  Credit to her for descending into a new level.

Significant improvement, especially in late October.  Ran sub-23 at Gabriel Richard and the Goodells Regional, along with a 23:42 on a tough Possum Hollow course.  Quite impressive when you consider she was mostly running above 30:00 as a freshman.

Career Achievement

Twice a State qualifier up in Division 2.  Clawson moves down to Division 3 and Claire now moves into the All-State discussion.  In both her freshman and sophomore years, she’s turned it on down the stretch with many performances near or below that 20:00 barrier.

Anyone Else?

She’s silently run in Claire Thomson’s footsteps, but seems poised for a breakout.  Ran a 20:37 on a tough Linden course at Regionals, a good 40+ seconds better than she was as a freshman.

The bloodlines are there (Paul, Olivia, Ethan) and so are the results.  Consistently around 13:00 on courses that are fair and historically accurate.  3rd at Lutheran Schools, 5th at the Eastside Invite, and 1st in the NSLAA.

With Shrine’s move to D3, Clara’s path becomes a bit tougher, but she should be up for the challenge.  Ran much faster than ever before to close her sophomore year (Chandler Park notwithstanding).  Sub-22 at Gabriel Richard and State Finals.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 27-3

Teams

Adrian Madison
Ann Arbor Greenhills
Blissfield
Canton Preparatory
Clinton
Dearborn Advanced Technology
Dearborn Heights Robichaud
Dearborn Heights Star International Academy
Detroit Cristo Rey
Detroit Leadership Academy
Detroit Voyageur Prep
Ecorse
Erie Mason
Hope of Detroit Academy
Ida
Manchester
Monroe St. Mary CC
Riverview Gabriel Richard
Sand Creek
Stockbridge
Taylor Preparatory
Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Stockbridge (8), Clinton (10), Manchester (19), Blissfield (25)

Highest Rated Seniors

Andrew’s junior season showed a leap in both times and big-race capability.  He’d broken into the 18’s during his first two years, but made a significant dent into that level with a 17:26 at the Huron Invite.  Later, at that same Willow course, nabbed a 2nd place finish in the regional, breaking 17:00 in the process.

It’s well known that I’m a fan of those who may not be as talented or take awhile to show their talent.  Nethanel was above 21:00 as a freshman and above 19:00 as a sophomore.  At this regional, he ran his PR (17:43) and placed nearly 50 spots lower than in 2018.

Liam began his XC career as a sophomore, mainly running in the low-20’s, but finishing the year with a sub-19 time.  Given the start, it looked as if his junior season would end similarly.  When October rolled around, he made sure that didn’t happen with quality performances at Hudson Booster (18:10) and Gabriel Richard (18:03).

Career Achievement

Gabe had two breakthrough races last year, both at the championship level.  He very nearly broke 17:00 at the TCC Championships, finishing 2nd.  He was able to bust through that barrier here at regionals, placing 3rd.  That finish wasn’t a surprise, but the time certainly was. 

Anyone Else?

As with Liam Riley, has been a part of the Manchester program for two years.  Also like Liam, had a good race at Gabriel Richard (17:36, his first sub-18).  Doubled that up with a clutch race at this regional, placing 7th, outperforming my projection by 13 spots.

Brock’s incredible range deserves mention.  He definitely can hang with most on the cross course, finishing 20th here the past two years.  If he’s in the mix coming down the stretch, watch out.  His wheels will be unmatched by anyone (10.9/22.2, 2nd place finish in the D2 2019 200m).

I’d be remiss to fail to include a Stockbridge runner here.  They’re a young team that’s capable of having seven guys in the 17’s.  Dalton’s year to year improvement gives hope to their potential.  He ran 18:27 as a freshman on a Stockbridge course that is usually a little quick, as a sophomore he was sub 17:30 on multiple occasions, including a 15th place at the Uncle John’s Regional.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Clinton (15), Stockbridge (20), Blissfield (22)

Highest Rated Seniors

After finishing 27th as a freshman, Alissa has notched two consecutive top-5 finishes at this region.  All three years, she’s been top-10 in the TCC and last year, her first top-10 finish at Lenawee County.

Brianna has had the unfortunate circumstance of finishing 16th at her regionals.  But late in October, she showed some significant drops from previous years.  Low 20:00 races at regionals and GLAC show a girl that will likely be pushing 20:00 this year. 

2019 marked Claire’s first individual qualifier.  She came through in what must’ve been a trying season, to that point it had been markedly slower than 2018.  But she came through with a 41 second PR. 

Career Achievement

Profile.

Mari earned a number of victories last season.  Blissfield EB, LCAA, Keunner, and this Regional.  In terms of time, her regional victory was a bit of a surprise – her first race breaking 20:00.

Anyone Else?

As a freshman, Allie had some pretty notable finishes.  1st place in the 9/10 race at Chelsea, 2nd in the Cascades Conference, and 3rd at this region.  Also nabbed a sub-20 PR at Gabriel Richard.

In 2019, Kaitelyn had significant improvement across many meets.  Greater than a minute at Stockbridge, Hudson Booster, and Greater Lansing.  Reached sub-21 in a 7th place finish at the GLAC Championship.

Progress can occur during a season as well.  Emma’s 27:33 opener at Bert Cebulski was slower than any race she ran in 2018.  Her regional, here at Willow, was faster than any race she ran in 2018.  She placed 15th in that regional race, earning a spot in the State Finals.

2020 Previews

Division 4 State Projections

Boys

Team Projections

I’ve been thinking of how to visualize these in another way. Especially for these lower division teams, the State Meet represents a different, larger field than normal. To win in these larger fields requires a knowledge of how to run in packs and how to manipulate the pack in order to score the lowest. What I’m trying to do here is show where the packs may be and how the top teams relate to them. This is a very rough version of what I hope to show when the season begins.

You can see here how Saugatuck and Carson City might benefit from being able to place their 5th runner before the major pack between ~18:20-18:35, whereas the other two teams will rely on their 4th or both 4th/5th guys to break into that pack. You see similar groupings in the higher 17’s and around 19:00.

Individual Projections

Here are some common races from the projected top 8:

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Common races between the top 6 non-freshman (which, I guess, includes Miriam Murrell):

Middle school results. Included an equivalent time because the middle school ratings aren’t on the same scale as the high school ratings.