Blog

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Grandville vs. the unexpected. Up front, the Livermore tandem is reliable. The OK Red Championship showed that the Bulldogs can go even deeper – all five scorers under 17:05. The team for them to catch is Rockford, who were able to all fall in under 17-flat. A closer gap between the two later in the race may lead to a Grandville upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jenison	39	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Grand Haven	60	2.0		95+	8
3	Rockford	93	3.1		93	23
4	Grandville	111	4.0		7	29
5	Holland West Ottawa	139	5.5			42
6	Zeeland West	142	5.9			43
7	Hudsonville	152	6.5			50
8	Grand Rapids Northview	246	8.1			83
9	Greenville	262	8.9			88
10	Grand Rapids Union	321	10.1			105
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	334	11.1			108
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	343	11.8			112
13	Wyoming	374	13.0			118
14	Muskegon	460	14.0			135

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	1.4
2	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	1.8
3	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	3.7
4	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	4.2
5	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	5.0
6	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	6.8
7	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	6.8
8	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	7.5
9	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	8.5
10	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	10.6
11	11	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	13.0
12	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	13.4
13	11	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	13.5
14	11	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	14.8
15	11	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	15.1
16	10	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	15.8
17	11	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.3
18	10	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	16.9
19	12	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	18.8
20	12	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	20.3
21	12	Dominic Otto	Jenison	21.0
22	12	Nathan Loser	Rockford	22.2
23	9	Chase Sherman	Jenison	25.0
24	11	Kasen Todtz	Grand Haven	27.0
25	11	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	27.2
26	10	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	29.4
27	12	Caden Karcher	Rockford	29.5
28	12	Dylan Pfeffer	Hudsonville	30.7
29	12	Aidan Ohanyan	Hudsonville	30.7
30	11	Michael Dummer	Holland West Ottawa	31.0

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Midland vs. Traverse City West for a qualifying spot. All year, the Chemics have been a welcome surprise, winning early at Northwood and the SVL Championship meet, racing with the big boys at Holly. Traverse City West travels south, hoping to spoil that year-round party. During last week’s Big North Championship, the Titans used the quick Cadillac course to attain PRs from four of their five scorers, nearly knocking off Traverse City Central in the process.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City Central	65	1.2	82	95+	10
2	Okemos	85	2.2	16	93	20
3	Midland	93	2.8		88	21
4	Traverse City West	108	3.8		19	25
5	Grand Ledge	139	5.2			32
6	Saginaw Heritage	152	5.8			40
7	H.H. Dow	184	7.0			51
8	Alpena	223	8.6			58
9	Bay City Western	225	8.7			61
10	Mt. Pleasant	249	9.9			65
11	East Lansing	274	10.9			71
12	Holt	302	11.9			81
13	Lansing Everett	432	13.2			119
14	Bay City Central	437	13.8			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.8
2	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	2.7
3	10	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	4.6
4	11	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	4.9
5	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	5.5
6	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	6.6
7	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	7.6
8	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	7.8
9	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	10.1
10	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	10.6
11	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	12.1
12	11	Logan Bellinger	Midland	12.7
13	12	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	15.0
14	11	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	18.0
15	12	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	18.3
16	12	Lawrence Cubitt	Traverse City Central	18.8
17	11	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	19.0
18	11	Aidan Simrau	Traverse City West	19.8
19	12	Sam Scott	H.H. Dow	20.1
20	12	Leyton Minuth	H.H. Dow	21.1
21	9	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	22.7
22	10	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	23.4
23	12	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	24.9
24	12	Spencer Porritt	Midland	25.8
25	12	Finley Markle	Okemos	26.7
26	10	Simon Shutt	Okemos	27.1
27	11	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	27.3
28	9	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	27.6
29	11	David Fiore	Saginaw Heritage	28.7
30	12	Andy Castro	H.H. Dow	29.2

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Five teams with a real shot of qualifying, three squads with legitimate chances of winning. Samuel Baker’s return has given Kalamazoo Central a major jab in the arm. Filtering for Region 3 teams at both Portage and the SMAC Championship results in a Giant wreck over the competition. Last week, this was all five scorers under 16:15.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Kalamazoo Central	83	1.6	67	88	7
2	East Kentwood	99	2.6	14	78	13
3	Forest Hills Central	99	2.6	13	81	11
4	Portage Central	105	3.4		48	12
5	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	151	5.7		5	30
6	Caledonia	152	5.7			28
7	Lowell	181	7.3			36
8	Forest Hills Northern	183	7.4			35
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	215	8.9			45
10	Byron Center	243	10.0			52
11	Mattawan	274	11.6			63
12	Portage Northern	279	11.8			56
13	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	294	12.6			68

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	1.4
2	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	4.4
3	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	5.3
4	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	6.5
5	10	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
6	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	7.4
7	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	7.9
8	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	8.1
9	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	8.6
10	11	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.4
11	10	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	12.3
12	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	13.0
13	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	13.5
14	12	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	14.7
15	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	15.0
16	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	16.6
17	11	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	18.1
18	10	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	19.4
19	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	19.7
20	12	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	20.3
21	9	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	22.1
22	10	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	22.1
23	10	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	22.8
24	12	Jonah Bills	Battle Creek Lakeview	26.7
25	11	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	27.1
26	11	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	28.1
27	11	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	28.6
28	11	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	28.9
29	11	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	29.6
30	11	Nicolas MoralesSan	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	31.2

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Howell vs. Ann Arbor Skyline. The top-two spots should go to Brighton, a MIS podium contender and Dexter, an unheralded and reliable team. But Howell has been racing aggressively of late, moving up in the regional rankings thanks to prime performances from David DeLand and Alex Weller. On the other hand, Ann Arbor Skyline comes off an SEC Championship where 30 seconds separated their 1^st and 5^th runners. That sorta pack running can come in handy in a pressure-filled environment.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Dexter	100	2.4		95	27
3	Howell	104	2.8		89	26
4	Ann Arbor Skyline	129	4.1		13	41
5	Davison	152	4.9			46
6	Holly	189	6.6			54
7	Grand Blanc	195	6.9			59
8	Hartland	206	7.6			62
9	Flushing	227	9.1			66
10	Fenton	240	9.7			69
11	Lapeer	276	11.0			82
12	Swartz Creek	317	12.1			91
13	Jackson	336	12.9			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.1
2	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	2.2
3	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	4.3
4	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	5.5
5	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.0
6	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	7.2
7	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	7.5
8	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	8.3
9	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	8.6
10	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	8.7
11	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	9.3
12	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	10.1
13	12	Drake Wallace	Howell	15.1
14	12	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	15.6
15	10	Broden Ladd	Holly	15.8
16	11	Mitchell Cory	Brighton	16.8
17	12	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc	20.9
18	12	Luke Meyer	Davison	21.9
19	10	Coen Hill	Dexter	22.0
20	10	Nicholas Yuan	Ann Arbor Skyline	22.6
21	11	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.1
22	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison	24.2
23	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland	24.6
24	10	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.9
25	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly	25.2
26	12	Landon Whitehead	Dexter	28.0
27	9	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	28.0
28	11	Jonny Striler	Swartz Creek	29.3
29	10	Levi Mayer	Davison	29.4
30	9	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	29.9

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems… undramatic? Region 5 has always been a story of Saline + Ann Arbor Pioneer, then someone else. That someone else looks to be Temperance Bedford, who placed 4^th in the final SEC Red jamboree. The Mules provide a few frontrunners and then a pack that can work together in the middle of the race.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	36	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	51	2.0		95+	16
3	Temperance Bedford	84	3.0		95+	33
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	105	4.0			47
5	Monroe	136	5.0			57
6	Allen Park	210	6.4			90
7	Dearborn	218	6.9			89
8	Gibraltar Carlson	249	8.1			102
9	Wyandotte Roosevelt	265	8.8			106
10	Dearborn Edsel Ford	305	10.3			116
11	Dearborn Fordson	320	11.0			110
12	Southgate Anderson	337	11.9			117
13	Ypsilanti Lincoln	369	13.6			121
14	Detroit Cass Tech	369	13.6			124
15	Belleville	389	14.6			123
16	Lincoln Park	460	16.0			129
17	Detroit Martin Luther King	553	17.4			136
18	Taylor	555	17.6			137

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.0
3	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	4.2
4	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	4.9
5	11	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	6.9
6	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	7.0
7	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	8.1
8	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
9	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	8.7
10	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	10.5
11	9	Wesley Rogan	Saline	10.6
12	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	10.7
13	10	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	12.5
14	10	Carlos Basulto	Saline	13.6
15	12	Myles Bray	Monroe	14.9
16	11	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.3
17	11	Quinn Davis	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.0
18	12	Nicholas (Nick) Balla	Temperance Bedford	19.9
19	10	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.9
20	12	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	21.0
21	11	Parker Bomia-Laberdee	Monroe	21.2
22	11	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	22.1
23	10	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	23.0
24	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn	26.4
25	10	Logan Thomas	Temperance Bedford	27.0
26	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	27.3
27	11	Joshua Riggs	Monroe	29.7
28	12	Maceo Colon	Temperance Bedford	30.4
29	12	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	30.5
30	10	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.6

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Canton vs. the question marks. At the end of September, the Cobras were in the MIS podium conversation. A month later and they’ve had some absences from their team. In spite of those missing, they’ve placed 3^rd in Wayne County and 5^th in the KLAA. With or without runners, Plymouth would be right in the conversation for advancing. I bet if I tracked improvement within a season (and between seasons), the Wildcats would be in contention for the most improved in the state. They find themselves here in the top-10 in the state and seemingly still growing.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	26	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Livonia Churchill	70	2.1		95+	5
3	Plymouth	82	3.2		72	9
4	Canton	88	3.7		29	14
5	Salem	118	5.0			24
6	Ann Arbor Huron	162	6.0			44
7	Livonia Stevenson	240	7.3			73
8	Farmington	251	8.0			79
9	Detroit U-D Jesuit	261	8.7			87
10	Detroit Renaissance	318	10.3			103
11	Livonia Franklin	334	11.6			113
12	Westland John Glenn	341	12.0			109
13	Wayne Memorial	341	12.0			111
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	442	14.1			128
15	Ferndale	458	14.9			130
16	Detroit Mumford	510	16.0			138

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.0
2	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	2.2
3	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	3.2
4	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	3.8
5	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	6.6
6	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	6.7
7	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	6.8
8	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	8.1
9	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	10.5
10	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	10.6
11	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	11.9
12	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	12.8
13	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	13.4
14	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	13.7
15	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	10	Jack Hanner	Salem	17.1
17	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	17.5
18	11	Ryan Stojov	Northville	18.2
19	12	Ben Clark	Canton	19.1
20	10	Austin Mercado	Salem	20.5
21	12	Adam Dicken	Canton	20.8
22	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem	22.3
23	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	22.7
24	12	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	23.6
25	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington	23.7
26	12	Ethan Morche	Livonia Churchill	23.9
27	12	Aaron Messing	Livonia Stevenson	28.5
28	12	Teo Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.8
29	11	Max Frentner	Salem	30.7
30	11	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	31.2

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

True proximity in these rivalries. White Lake Lakeland and Highland-Milford are LVC foes. This year’s iteration of the LVC was won by Lakeland, winning both their dual and the championship meet, where the Eagles were able to dot the top-seven with four of their athletes. Close in the mid-season, even closer now, Novi has snuck by Detroit Catholic Central in the projections.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	51	1.4	60	95+	17
2	Highland-Milford	55	1.6	40	95+	18
3	Novi	100	3.5		53	39
4	Detroit Catholic Central	102	3.5		47	34
5	Walled Lake Northern	134	5.0			49
6	Royal Oak	165	5.9			55
7	South Lyon	213	7.1			70
8	South Lyon East	238	8.0			75
9	Beverly Hills Groves	267	8.9			86
10	West Bloomfield	301	10.0			92
11	Birmingham Seaholm	342	11.4			101
12	Brother Rice	347	11.8			97
13	Berkley	369	13.1			104
14	North Farmington	381	13.9			107
15	Walled Lake Western	422	15.2			115
16	Walled Lake Central	443	15.5			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.0
2	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	2.4
3	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	5.2
4	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	5.4
5	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	6.2
6	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi	8.1
7	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	9.9
8	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	9.9
9	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	10.0
10	12	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	11.0
11	11	Soma Sato	Novi	11.6
12	11	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	12.2
13	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	12.5
14	12	Jacob Kosidlo	White Lake Lakeland	13.8
15	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	15.3
16	10	Briggs Warren	Novi	17.2
17	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	18.0
18	12	Michael Nivala	White Lake Lakeland	18.6
19	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	19.3
20	10	Josh Sanchez	Highland-Milford	21.7
21	11	Dylan Doggett	Highland-Milford	22.6
22	11	Isaac German	Novi	24.2
23	11	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	24.9
24	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	25.0
25	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves	26.1
26	12	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	26.1
27	12	Liam Wyman	South Lyon	26.4
28	9	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	27.4
29	12	Evan Kelly	Highland-Milford	28.2
30	12	Jacob Mack	South Lyon East	29.7

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Troy and Rochester going at it for the final spot. Ranked right near each other in the state standings, separated a bit with regard to the region. Troy finds a major advantage by having six boys that could contend for four scoring spots, insurance in the case of a poor race. I wouldn’t discount the Falcons though, as they’re coming off an OAA White victory and they showed the ability in track to show up on regional day.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Clarkston	54	1.1	89	95+	6
2	Oxford	67	1.9	11	95+	15
3	Troy	103	3.1		87	38
4	Rochester	115	3.9		13	37
5	Lake Orion	143	5.1			48
6	Troy Athens	162	5.9			53
7	Utica Ford	229	7.7			72
8	Rochester Adams	234	8.0			77
9	Sterling Heights Stevenson	252	9.6			80
10	Bloomfield Hills	254	9.6			76
11	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	260	10.2			85
12	Warren Cousino	304	12.0			94
13	Waterford Kettering	382	13.0			114
14	Waterford Mott	439	14.1			125
15	Warren Mott	466	14.9			126
16	Auburn Hills Avondale	501	16.2			131
17	Sterling Heights	509	16.9			133

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex McArthur	Oxford	1.7
2	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	2.3
3	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	3.2
4	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.6
5	12	James Cusick	Oxford	4.7
6	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	6.1
7	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	8.5
8	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	8.8
9	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	10.0
10	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	11.1
11	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	11.3
12	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	11.5
13	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	11.5
14	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	11.6
15	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion	15.6
16	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens	16.0
17	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering	18.0
18	12	Akshat Arora	Troy	19.8
19	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.9
20	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford	22.3
21	11	Aaron Hemstreet	Warren Cousino	22.9
22	12	John Lonsway	Sterling Heights Stevenson	23.0
23	12	Jack Tultz	Clarkston	24.5
24	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston	25.1
25	11	Isaac Clark	Troy	26.1
26	12	Braden Cinato	Warren Cousino	28.5
27	10	Zach Shaffer	Utica Ford	28.9
28	9	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	29.5
29	12	Jack Dysarz	Oxford	29.6
30	10	Henry Witt	Troy	30.5
31	12	Austin Xiao	Troy	31.7

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Utica, hoping to repeat the feat from two weeks back. At Eastwood in mid-October, spurred by a dominant top-two, the Chieftains were able to capture the County crown. With two weeks to celebrate and bask in the glory of their accomplishment, they could benefit from the gained confidence. On the other hand, a Romeo or Macomb Dakota may have spent these past two weeks stewing and concocting a strategy to pull an upset.  

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Utica	59	1.4	68	95+	19
2	Macomb Dakota	65	1.9	29	95+	22
3	Romeo	81	2.8		95+	31
4	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.5			60
5	Utica Eisenhower	178	5.3			64
6	Fraser	180	5.3			67
7	Anchor Bay	222	7.7			74
8	Warren DeLaSalle	222	7.9			78
9	Grosse Pointe North	231	8.3			84
10	L’Anse Creuse North	273	10.6			95
11	L’Anse Creuse	287	11.6			93
12	Chippewa Valley	292	12.0			96
13	Port Huron Northern	300	12.8			99
14	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	301	13.0			98
15	Roseville	467	15.0			127
16	Warren Woods Tower	515	16.2			132
17	Detroit East English	527	16.8			134

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	1.8
2	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	1.8
3	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	2.8
4	11	James Brickel	Romeo	6.1
5	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	8.7
6	11	Owen Perry	Romeo	9.1
7	12	Jack Martin	Grosse Pointe South	9.3
8	11	Luke Allen	Romeo	10.9
9	11	Lance Edghill	Fraser	12.2
10	12	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	12.5
11	11	Charlie Curtis	Utica	13.1
12	11	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	13.2
13	12	Jensen McCutcheon	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	13.9
14	11	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	14.5
15	11	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	15.1
16	12	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	15.3
17	11	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	15.8
18	11	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	17.7
19	12	Colden Gray	Utica Eisenhower	19.2
20	9	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	19.8
21	12	Noah Redman	Macomb Dakota	21.3
22	11	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	22.2
23	12	Alex Habarth	L’Anse Creuse	23.0
24	12	Tethyan McKenzie	Grosse Pointe South	23.2
25	12	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	26.3
26	11	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	27.3
27	11	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	28.0
28	11	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	28.9
29	10	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	29.7
30	12	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	29.8

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The venerable Spring Lake girls vs. a late-rising Ludington. The Orioles are a bit faster up front, Annabelle Lowman and Nadia Grierson both showing the capability of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Laker strength is in the middle of their lineup. During last week’s OK Black Championship, Spring Lake was able to place six girls under 20:35.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Spring Lake	79	1.5	57	95+	11
2	Ludington	82	1.7	42	95+	13
3	Cadillac	98	2.9		95+	15
4	Cedar Springs	146	4.8			33
5	Petoskey	153	5.2			39
6	Fruitport	157	5.5			38
7	Fremont	185	7.7			50
8	Gladwin	185	7.7			49
9	Whitehall	197	8.7			55
10	Gaylord	211	9.5			58
11	Sparta	242	10.8			80
12	Howard City Tri-County	312	12.0			91
13	Big Rapids	381	13.0			104
14	Ogemaw Heights	458	14.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	10	Mia May	Sparta	2.6
3	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.2
4	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.3
5	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	5.2
6	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	6.6
7	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	7.3
8	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.6
9	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	8.8
10	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	10.2
11	12	Camille (Cami) Kraai	Whitehall	11.3
12	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	12.5
13	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	14.1
14	10	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	16.7
15	12	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	16.7
16	12	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	17.0
17	12	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	18.1
18	9	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	18.9
19	10	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	20.3
20	11	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	20.7
21	12	Summer Brower	Ludington	22.5
22	12	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	23.9
23	9	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	23.9
24	12	Autumn Brower	Ludington	25.2
25	12	Bethany Zimmerman	Spring Lake	25.8
26	12	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	26.8
27	11	Elisabeth Pauls	Petoskey	30.6
28	9	Briella Kohley	Spring Lake	30.7
29	10	Allison Brandt	Ludington	30.8
30	10	Kendall Nester	Cedar Springs	30.9

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Really nothing? The projected top three squads are all so strong that they *shouldn’t* be challenged. Now, watch there be an upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Zeeland East	27	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	48	2.0		95+	6
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	66	3.0		95+	10
4	Coopersville	113	4.0			21
5	Holland	194	5.9			62
6	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	196	6.1			59
7	Hopkins	198	6.6			67
8	Allendale	222	8.3			81
9	Grand Rapids West Catholic	223	8.6			75
10	Hamilton	234	9.5			82
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	343	11.0			103
12	Grand River Preparatory	377	12.1			108
13	Comstock Park	394	13.2			111
14	Wyoming Lee	404	13.7			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	1.0
2	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	2.6
3	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	3.2
4	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	4.0
5	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	4.4
6	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	6.7
7	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	9.1
9	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	9.8
10	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	10.3
11	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
12	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.8
13	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	14.0
14	9	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	14.3
15	12	Grace Mckinney	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	16.0
16	12	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.4
17	11	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.7
18	9	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	17.3
19	11	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	21.5
20	10	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.2
21	12	Maya VanSolkema	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
22	9	Ava Knot	Holland Christian	23.5
23	9	Sophie Jones	Holland Christian	25.3
24	12	Kambria Moored	Hopkins	27.1
25	11	Allison Breining	Hopkins	27.3
26	10	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.4
27	11	Emily Graves	Zeeland East	28.3
28	12	Ellie Francis	Allendale	28.7
29	SR	Ambria Depoy	Holland	28.8
30	12	Katherine Ptak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	29.9

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can the home course advantage play in the favor of the Sailors? Every year Grand Rapids South Christian seemingly qualifies a team as an underdog. They’re definitely peaking at the right time, eight days off dominating the OK Gold Championship. Forest Hills Eastern will be a tough out, well-coached and battle-tested.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	37	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	East Grand Rapids	66	2.0		95+	7
3	Forest Hills Eastern	98	3.2		83	12
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	111	3.8		17	14
5	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	169	5.8			28
6	Richland Gull Lake	171	6.0			35
7	Plainwell	175	6.2			29
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	241	8.4			64
9	Portland	247	8.7			60
10	Belding	279	10.0			79
11	Battle Creek Pennfield	320	11.3			90
12	Hastings	342	12.2			96
13	Ionia	357	13.1			95
14	Wayland Union	370	13.4			101
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	435	15.0			110

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	1.9
2	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	2.3
3	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	3.6
4	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.0
5	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.2
6	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	6.6
7	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
8	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.5
9	11	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.5
10	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.5
11	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	13.3
12	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	13.8
13	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	15.5
14	10	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	15.8
15	10	Sofia Lewis	GR West Michigan Aviation	16.4
16	10	Caroline Randall	Hastings	18.3
17	12	Marlina Howell	Forest Hills Eastern	18.3
18	11	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	18.5
19	12	Claire Vos	Plainwell	18.8
20	10	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	19.6
21	9	Lydia Visker	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
22	12	Avery Wezensky	Portland	22.4
23	9	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	22.9
24	10	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	23.7
25	9	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	25.4
26	9	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	25.7
27	12	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	27.1
28	11	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	27.4
29	9	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	31.1
30	11	Catherine Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	31.6

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Paw Paw trying to swoop in and claim that third spot. The Red Wolves really let it rip at last week’s Wolverine Conference meet, receiving a season’s best or better from five girls. 4^th place and a performance that if repeated, could pave the way for a trip east to MIS.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Otsego	31	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Sturgis	91	2.3		95+	17
3	St. Joseph	108	3.3		65	25
4	Paw Paw	125	4.0		31	36
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	127	4.5		7	34
6	Marshall	179	6.2			52
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	209	8.0			61
8	Niles	211	8.1			74
9	Three Rivers	216	8.4			68
10	Edwardsburg	231	9.4			78
11	Berrien Springs	278	11.0			86
12	Coldwater	321	12.3			92
13	Dowagiac Union	338	13.2			97
14	Vicksburg	343	13.4			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	2.0
3	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	3.9
4	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	4.7
5	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	6.2
6	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	7.4
8	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	8.3
9	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	8.7
10	11	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	11.9
11	11	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	12.4
12	12	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	13.9
13	10	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	14.4
14	10	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	15.0
15	12	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.8
16	12	Charlie Drew	Niles	19.4
17	10	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.9
18	12	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.1
19	9	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	20.2
20	11	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	20.5
21	9	Gweneth Eby	Coldwater	20.6
22	11	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	21.1
23	9	San Juanita Vargas	Paw Paw	24.0
24	9	Rylee Zumer	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.6
25	12	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.2
26	12	Sadie Ebel	St. Joseph	26.3
27	10	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	27.2
28	11	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	29.0
29	10	Eleanor Park	Sturgis	30.7
30	10	Brynn Copenhaver	Three Rivers	31.7

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Love the varied teams that could make it one more week. Any combination of DeWitt + Owosso, St. Johns, Williamston, Mason, or even a Charlotte could advance. Perhaps we could look to the CAAC Red, whose final jamboree was won by the Redwings. A low stick in Ava Schafer plus power from the 2^nd and 3^rd spots was enough to hold off Williamson, Mason, and Haslett.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	DeWitt	35	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Owosso	123	2.7		84	20
3	St. Johns	134	3.7		48	27
4	Williamston	143	4.6		31	30
5	Mason	147	4.9		21	32
6	Alma	156	5.8			43
7	Charlotte	159	6.3		9	44
8	Haslett	173	7.3			46
9	Parma Western	206	9.0			54
10	Corunna	244	10.8			66
11	Fowlerville	248	10.9			76
12	Eaton Rapids	249	11.1			72
13	Lansing Waverly	433	13.4			112
14	Lansing Eastern	436	13.6			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.0
2	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	2.4
3	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	3.9
4	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	4.3
5	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	5.4
6	12	Joy Evans	Alma	5.5
7	12	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	8.2
8	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	9.0
9	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	11.2
10	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	12.2
11	12	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	14.5
12	12	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	14.9
13	12	Julionna West	Owosso	15.8
14	10	Morgan Allen	Mason	15.9
15	12	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	16.4
16	11	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	17.9
17	11	Maria Beach	Fowlerville	18.6
18	10	Colette Charchut	Haslett	19.0
19	11	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	19.6
20	11	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	20.0
21	12	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	21.5
22	11	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	21.8
23	9	Delilah White	Haslett	22.0
24	10	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	23.3
25	12	Morgan Ashcroft	DeWitt	24.3
26	9	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	29.0
27	9	Ruby Petee	Mason	29.0
28	10	Eliza Milarch	Charlotte	30.0
29	10	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	30.8
30	10	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	31.7

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Bluejay magic vs. the odds. Frankenmuth has been a reliable team all year, placing 2^nd in the TVC Red, Greater Flint, and Saginaw County. A young Shepherd team has been accelerating towards the finish, buoyed by the emergence of Cailyn Baker, winning the JPC yet again.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Goodrich	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Freeland	68	2.0		95+	9
3	Frankenmuth	93	3.1		90	16
4	Shepherd	105	3.9		10	19
5	Flint Powers Catholic	129	5.0			41
6	Imlay City	222	6.4			88
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	230	7.2			87
8	Flint Kearsley	234	7.6			89
9	Birch Run	254	9.1			93
10	Ortonville Brandon	266	10.0			100
11	Essexville-Garber	281	11.3			102
12	Bay City John Glenn	285	11.5			106

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	1.2
2	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.4
3	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.8
4	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	3.9
5	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	5.6
6	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	7.0
7	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	7.5
8	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.0
9	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	9.1
10	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	10.1
11	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	10.7
12	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	12.7
13	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	14.1
14	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	14.6
15	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	14.8
16	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	15.0
17	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	15.8
18	9	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	16.8
19	12	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	19.0
20	9	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	20.5
21	12	Landrey Kuhn	Freeland	20.8
22	9	Ellie Thering	Freeland	22.7
23	10	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	23.1
24	11	Emilee Young	Shepherd	25.4
25	12	Gracie Warner	Shepherd	26.6
26	9	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	27.3
27	9	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	28.6
28	11	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	29.0
29	10	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley	29.4
30	10	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another region with a ton of teams in the mix to qualify and/or win. This is a rarity though – Pinckney has over a 50% chance to qualify, but they’re slotted in the 4^th spot. This what happens when there are four teams ranked between 22^nd and 26^th.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Dearborn Divine Child	83	1.6	64	95+	22
2	Linden	91	2.8	15	67	23
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	91	3.0	6	63	24
4	Pinckney	94	3.3	12	53	26
5	Detroit Country Day	108	4.4		18	37
6	Bloomfield Hills Marian	170	6.9			63
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	173	7.1			69
8	Oak Park	187	7.9			73
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	190	8.2			77
10	Lake Fenton	224	10.0			84
11	Garden City	330	11.0			107
12	Detroit Cody	392	12.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.2
2	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	2.4
3	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.1
4	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	5.0
5	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	5.8
6	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	5.9
7	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	8.3
8	12	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	9.2
9	10	Sidney Shepard	Linden	9.4
10	12	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child	10.2
11	9	Janae Coleman	Oak Park	13.2
12	12	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child	13.8
13	11	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.9
14	12	Tess Scicluna	Dearborn Divine Child	15.5
15	9	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	16.3
16	11	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child	16.7
17	10	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	17.5
18	12	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	18.1
19	9	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	18.3
20	10	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	20.0
21	9	Leah Krzeszewski	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.0
22	9	Molly Roberts	Linden	23.0
23	12	Dayshana Kellogg	Oak Park	23.5
24	10	Claire Dunn	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	23.8
25	12	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.3
26	11	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	27.4
27	11	Catherine Kipila	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.9
28	10	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	30.2
29	12	Ella Schueller	Detroit Country Day	30.4
30	10	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	30.4

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The dead heat between Armada and Croswell-Lexington. The two BWAC teams have met up in the three conference jamborees. Armada captured the first and third ones, Cros-Lex the middle one. The Pioneers will need someone beyond their top-4 to break up the Tiger pack, which is typically overwhelming enough to buy a victory.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Macomb Lutheran North	65	1.3	71	95+	40
2	St. Clair	73	1.7	29	95+	45
3	Croswell-Lexington	105	3.7		45	51
4	Armada	107	3.9		46	56
5	Warren Regina	117	5.0			65
6	Yale	125	5.5		5	71
7	Marysville	157	7.0			83
8	Madison Heights Lamphere	215	8.1			94
9	Richmond	228	8.9			99
10	Detroit University Prep	293	10.0			109
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	350	11.3			117
12	Harper Woods	356	11.7			118
13	Detroit Southeastern Tech	373	13.0			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.0
2	12	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	2.8
3	10	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	3.0
4	12	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	4.7
5	12	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	6.0
6	12	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.2
7	9	Saige Cole	Yale	8.7
8	10	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	11.0
9	12	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	11.7
10	10	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	11.8
11	12	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	12.3
12	10	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	12.5
13	11	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	13.9
14	10	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.8
15	9	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	16.1
16	10	Lillian Bender	Yale	16.9
17	11	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	16.9
18	9	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	17.3
19	11	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	18.7
20	10	Helena Reiff	Armada	19.5
21	10	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
22	12	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
23	12	Addison Stevens	Marysville	21.1
24	12	Eden Brewer	St. Clair	23.2
25	9	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
26	10	Ava Childers	Yale	25.7
27	9	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	28.2
28	9	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	30.0
29	10	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	32.2
30	9	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	32.2

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Gonna be a test of who has the better depth, Carleton Airport or Chelsea. Through four runners, the scores appear fairly even. Chelsea’s depth is rapidly improving, Airport’s is senior-laden and experienced.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Adrian	48	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	85	2.0		95+	18
3	Carleton Airport	112	3.3		71	31
4	Chelsea	121	3.9		29	42
5	Trenton	144	5.7			47
6	Tecumseh	146	5.9			48
7	New Boston Huron	158	6.9			53
8	Milan	168	7.6			57
9	Dundee	188	8.8			70
10	Grosse Ile	227	10.0			85
11	Ypsilanti Community	308	11.0			105
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	389	12.0			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	1.0
2	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	2.4
3	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	2.7
4	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	4.4
5	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	7.1
6	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	8.6
7	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.8
8	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.9
9	SR	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	9.1
10	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.5
11	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	9.9
12	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	10.1
13	9	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	13.4
14	12	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	14.3
15	11	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	15.0
16	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	17.4
17	12	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	17.8
18	9	Allison Ost	Dundee	19.0
19	12	Devyn Dorey	Trenton	19.4
20	9	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	19.7
21	11	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	21.5
22	11	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	23.9
23	10	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	24.2
24	12	Lauren Thompson	Chelsea	24.7
25	11	Brenna Baker	Carleton Airport	28.2
26	10	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	28.2
27	10	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	28.7
28	11	Claire Cousineau	Tecumseh	29.1
29	9	Klair Baker	Adrian	29.3
30	9	Jaelynn Greene	Carleton Airport	30.2

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

As I had anticipated over the summer, Region 10 will be competitive both for attaining a trip to MIS and hoisting a regional championship trophy. Fremont has moved into the 3^rd spot here, greatly helped by the improved efforts of Mossen Green, a sophomore who has moved into the 17’s for his past three races. Sparta had been ranked well all year, but unfortunately seems to be missing one of their top contributors. Though an extremely quick top-three gives them a chance to put some distance on the Packers.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Cedar Springs	92	1.2	80	95+	10
2	Gladwin	105	2.2	15	95+	12
3	Fremont	122	3.1		74	20
4	Sparta	135	4.2		22	21
5	Spring Lake	150	5.4			25
6	Petoskey	157	5.8			27
7	Whitehall	168	6.8			32
8	Howard City Tri-County	186	8.1			33
9	Ludington	202	9.2			40
10	Big Rapids	202	9.2			39
11	Muskegon Oakridge	267	11.1			70
12	Cadillac	289	12.0			62
13	Fruitport	305	12.9			80
14	Gaylord	413	14.0			108
15	Muskegon Orchard View	460	15.0			118

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	1.3
2	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	2.7
3	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	3.7
4	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	4.1
5	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	5.5
6	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	6.6
7	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	7.7
8	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	8.6
9	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	9.3
10	12	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	9.8
11	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	11.1
12	10	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	14.8
13	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	15.1
14	11	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	16.2
15	10	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	16.6
16	11	Carson Wood	Sparta	17.2
17	12	Cole Lowery	Fremont	17.4
18	11	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	17.5
19	11	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	21.7
20	12	Parker Fettig	Petoskey	22.8
21	12	Andrew Boeringa	Whitehall	24.1
22	10	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	24.4
23	12	Blake Taylor	Fremont	25.3
24	11	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	25.7
25	12	David Reisterer	Ludington	26.5
26	10	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	26.8
27	10	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	27.3
28	9	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	27.6
29	9	Declan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	31.5
30	11	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	32.5

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The concentration of a great running community bears its head in the individual race, where Jeb Hillary, Kilian Whalen, and Will Engbers are all candidates to win. Portage was home to all three, with Engbers nabbing a PR in his 2^nd place finish. Hillary and then Whalen trekked in close behind. Engbers has been lightly raced in the three weeks since, picking up an OK Black title. Whalen and Hillary have each nabbed PR’s of their own.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Allendale	32	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	62	2.0		95+	4
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	111	3.0		95+	23
4	Zeeland East	135	4.2			26
5	Hamilton	146	5.3			35
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	148	5.6			29
7	Holland	182	7.0			50
8	Hopkins	233	8.0			74
9	Comstock Park	278	9.9			82
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	286	10.8			87
11	Grand Rapids West Catholic	288	10.8			89
12	Grand River Preparatory	288	10.9			88
13	Coopersville	318	12.6			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	2.3
3	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	2.4
4	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	4.4
5	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	5.2
6	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	6.4
7	10	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.5
8	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	8.8
9	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	9.0
10	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	10.7
11	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	10.7
12	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	12.1
13	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	13.0
14	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	13.4
15	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.3
16	11	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	17.5
17	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	17.8
18	10	Graeson Decker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.3
19	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	19.4
20	12	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	19.4
21	12	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.3
22	12	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	22.0
23	9	Aiden Lambers	Holland	23.0
24	11	Riley Hart	Holland Christian	23.4
25	10	Nate Davis	Zeeland East	25.4
26	10	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.9
27	12	Caleb DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.3
28	12	Ben Dykstra	Hamilton	27.5
29	12	Jackson Meyers	Allendale	28.8
30	9	Kash Moored	Hopkins	29.7

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

You’d think with three top-6 teams, it’d get a bit more exciting. Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and East Grand Rapids, all OK White competitors, all positioned as strong favorites to advance. The only question is the order. The Eagles captured all three of the jamborees, the Pioneers finished ahead of the Hawks in two of them. The same general order was the case at Portage. Perhaps the fifth (or more?) time’s the charm?

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	50	1.1	94	95+	2
2	Forest Hills Eastern	69	2.4	5	95+	5
3	East Grand Rapids	73	2.6		95+	6
4	Plainwell	128	4.0			16
5	Richland Gull Lake	184	5.2			38
6	Wayland Union	212	6.8			54
7	Portland	214	6.7			51
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	234	8.5			60
9	Grand Rapids South Christian	236	8.7			58
10	Belding	249	10.0			69
11	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	251	10.2			73
12	Hastings	294	12.0			81
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	324	13.4			86
14	Ionia	332	13.6			91

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	1.1
2	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	2.4
3	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	2.5
4	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	6.0
5	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	6.0
6	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	7.8
7	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	8.0
8	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	8.8
9	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	9.1
10	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.4
11	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	12.4
12	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	14.0
13	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	14.8
14	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	14.9
15	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	16.3
16	11	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	17.3
17	11	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	18.1
18	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
19	9	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	20.1
20	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	20.1
21	11	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	23.6
22	11	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	24.1
23	11	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	24.5
24	12	Micah Johnson	Hastings	24.9
25	12	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	25.2
26	11	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	26.0
27	11	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.4
28	9	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	27.2
29	11	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	28.2
30	12	Nick Whitmer	Forest Hills Eastern	28.2

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three Rivers, attempting to hold off Edwardsburg or beat Otsego for the third time. The Wildcats conquered the Otsego giant during the Wolverine Conference season, winning their first league championship in many years. Though the conference season didn’t see the emergence of Gunnar Djerf, who’s suddenly knocking on the sub-17 door. Edwardsburg placed 2^nd in that conference meet, buoyed by the coming out party of a Riley Szalai, a freshman who’s progressed from the 20+ range into the 17’s. Though megafans of the site will know this – the Wildcats are forever underrated.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Marshall	76	1.1	94	95+	8
2	Otsego	96	2.3	6	92	14
3	Three Rivers	103	2.9		81	18
4	Edwardsburg	116	3.7		26	24
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	139	5.2			30
6	St. Joseph	152	5.7			42
7	Berrien Springs	197	7.7			55
8	Sturgis	203	8.1			56
9	Vicksburg	208	8.5			57
10	Niles	225	9.7			65
11	Paw Paw	261	11.2			76
12	Coldwater	278	11.7			78
13	Dowagiac Union	354	13.0			101
14	South Haven	428	14.3			112
15	Stevensville Lakeshore	440	14.7			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	1.0
2	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	2.5
3	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
4	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	3.6
5	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	5.5
6	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	5.9
7	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.2
8	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	9.0
9	12	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	10.0
10	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	11.0
11	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	11.4
12	12	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	13.4
13	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	14.2
14	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	14.3
15	11	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	14.6
16	12	Matthew Long	Otsego	15.2
17	10	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	18.0
18	12	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	19.8
19	12	Peyton Eckerley	Berrien Springs	20.9
20	11	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	22.3
21	10	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	22.8
22	10	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	23.4
23	11	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	23.9
24	10	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	24.5
25	10	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	25.0
26	10	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	26.0
27	10	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	26.7
28	11	Clark Erwin	Marshall	28.4
29	12	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	28.6
30	9	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	29.4

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems pretty chalky from the teams, the individuals not so much. Edison Lopeman is known as a championship racer, hitting All-State in track and ripping some mid-15’s come October. Ezekiel Baltierra is making his presence known in important meets, placing 2^nd at Greater Lansing. Dylan Lydic is coming in as the CAAC Red Champion and has stepped into the 15’s on a few occasions too.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Alma	46	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	DeWitt	96	2.0		95+	13
3	Corunna	119	3.0		95+	22
4	Parma Western	144	4.1			28
5	Williamston	164	5.4			36
6	Haslett	174	6.1			44
7	Mason	180	6.5			45
8	Fowlerville	210	8.1			53
9	St. Johns	239	9.2			61
10	Eaton Rapids	253	10.0			66
11	Owosso	269	10.7			75
12	Charlotte	307	12.0			79
13	Jackson Northwest	367	13.5			96
14	Lansing Waverly	369	13.5			97
15	Lansing Eastern	430	15.1			110
16	Lansing Sexton	452	16.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	1.9
2	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	2.1
3	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	2.7
4	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	4.4
5	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	4.9
6	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	7.2
7	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	7.4
8	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	7.8
9	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	10.9
10	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	11.6
11	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	12.0
12	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	12.3
13	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	12.5
14	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.5
15	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	13.0
16	12	Bodie Heiss	Alma	18.0
17	10	Ryan Frantz	Haslett	19.2
18	11	Payton Chandler	Corunna	19.2
19	10	Ezra Nellis	Corunna	19.4
20	11	Luca Lebron	Alma	23.5
21	12	Jaxon Strauch	Corunna	24.8
22	10	Thaddeus Overley	Lansing Waverly	25.3
23	9	Teddy Weber	Williamston	25.5
24	12	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	25.7
25	9	Logan Banner	St. Johns	25.8
26	12	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	26.5
27	11	Joshua Carpenter	DeWitt	26.5
28	9	Sam Johnson	Alma	26.9
29	11	Raymond Herek	Williamston	27.2
30	12	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	28.0

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Four top-15 squads coming for three spots. Shepherd, extremely familiar with their home course, projects to be 3^rd. Freeland, only needing to score four, comes in the third spot. As of this time, it appears that the advantage lies with the 3^rd & 4^th boys, putting enough of a gap on the Falcons to overcome the Hansen advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Frankenmuth	62	1.1	90	95+	7
2	Flint Powers Catholic	73	2.1	10	95+	9
3	Shepherd	81	2.9		91	11
4	Freeland	96	3.9		9	15
5	Flint Kearsley	132	5.1			41
6	Goodrich	149	5.9			49
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	197	7.0			72
8	Bay City John Glenn	243	8.0			83
9	Birch Run	269	9.1			90
10	Essexville-Garber	285	9.9			95
11	Ortonville Brandon	308	11.5			104
12	North Branch	309	11.5			109
13	Imlay City	339	13.0			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.0
2	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.0
4	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	4.3
5	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.6
6	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	5.7
7	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	5.9
8	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	8.4
9	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	9.1
10	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	11.6
11	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	11.8
12	12	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	12.2
13	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	14.1
14	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	15.7
15	11	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	15.8
16	12	Cole Winter	Goodrich	16.4
17	11	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	17.5
18	12	Camden McLeod	Freeland	17.7
19	11	Thomas Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	18.9
20	12	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	19.3
21	11	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	19.3
22	11	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	22.1
23	10	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	24.4
24	11	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	24.7
25	10	Drew Davis	Shepherd	25.5
26	9	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	25.9
27	10	Jackson Horn	Freeland	28.3
28	11	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	28.8
29	11	Jagger Clark	Frankenmuth	29.1
30	10	Nathan Anaya	Freeland	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

How will a bunch of flatland Metro Detroit schools handle the Holly hills? According to Jacob Tanner’s maps, charts, and graphs encyclopedic regional preview, only 5 of the region’s 18 squads have competed on this twisted course.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pinckney	41	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Detroit Country Day	77	2.3		95+	37
3	Dearborn Divine Child	85	2.7		95+	47
4	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	128	4.9			59
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	129	5.0			68
6	Lake Fenton	130	5.1			67
7	Redford Union	186	7.0			84
8	Linden	223	8.4			93
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	235	8.9			98
10	Oak Park	258	9.6			107
11	Garden City	319	11.0			114
12	Detroit Henry Ford	362	12.0			121
13	Detroit Cody	396	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	1.0
2	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.3
3	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	4.0
4	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
5	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	5.1
6	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
7	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	7.0
8	11	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	8.7
9	12	Kyle Osborne	Pinckney	8.8
10	9	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	11.8
11	11	Jake Yono	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	13.1
12	10	Noah Neuman	Pinckney	15.1
13	10	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton	15.5
14	11	Bela Matyus	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	15.8
15	11	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	15.8
16	12	Nicholas Nakic	Dearborn Divine Child	15.9
17	12	Gabe Maciag	Pinckney	16.6
18	9	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	16.8
19	11	Wyatt Larson	Pinckney	19.4
20	12	Alex Kitsopanidis	Detroit Country Day	20.0
21	10	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	22.5
22	12	Ryan Wojichowski	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	22.6
23	12	Deric Tavolette	Redford Union	22.7
24	12	Tamer Zahr	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
25	12	Maximiliano Juarez	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
26	12	Avery Fsadni	Redford Union	27.8
27	9	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.1
28	12	Nicholas Mardelli	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.5
29	10	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	28.9
30	12	Michael Porter Jr.	Redford Union	30.8

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three proud traditions, one regional trophy. Yale, St. Clair, Macomb Lutheran North. They all come from different walks – the BWAC, MAC Red, Catholic League. Thankfully the Brooks Mid-Season Spectacular has become sort of a regional haven for fast times and competition. Lutheran North placed ahead of St. Clair on that Goodells track. Both St. Clair and Yale traveled to Portage, where Yale finished a solid distance ahead of the Saints. Would appear that the Mustangs and Bulldogs are a bit ahead, though the Saints have nothing to lose.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Yale	42	1.5	61	95+	46
2	Macomb Lutheran North	47	2.2	17	95+	43
3	St. Clair	49	2.3	22	95+	48
4	Madison Heights Lamphere	154	4.6			92
5	Armada	160	4.9			99
6	Richmond	168	5.8			94
7	Croswell-Lexington	183	7.4			102
8	Marysville	184	7.4			103
9	Center Line	291	9.2			120
10	Harper Woods	308	10.0			122
11	Warren Lincoln	337	11.1			123
12	Detroit Southeastern Tech	361	12.2			125
13	Harper Woods Chandler Park	373	13.1			126
14	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	380	13.5			127

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	11	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	2.3
3	10	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	3.5
4	12	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	5.2
5	11	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.0
6	12	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	6.1
7	12	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.5
8	11	Nolan Korolden	Yale	9.7
9	11	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	9.7
10	10	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	11.3
11	12	Kale Kovach	Yale	11.4
12	10	Logan Rhodes	Yale	11.4
13	9	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	12.9
14	11	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	13.6
15	9	Brady VanConant	Yale	14.2
16	12	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	15.2
17	12	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	17.0
18	12	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	18.6
19	12	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.0
20	11	Oliver Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
21	10	Nino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
22	10	Brendan Koza	Marysville	22.2
23	9	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.6
24	9	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	24.5
25	12	Sawyer Rosberg	Richmond	25.2
26	12	Jack Nicol	Yale	25.4
27	11	Robert Carrigan	Armada	27.3
28	11	Gavin Bishop	St. Clair	27.3
29	11	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	28.0
30	10	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	29.9

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

New Boston Huron vs. history. The regional favorite looks to end a 35 year drought in state qualifying, as the last boys squad to advance did so in 1979. There will be some demons to smother from last year, thankfully the Chiefs’ dominant top-two is a comforting safety blanket.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	New Boston Huron	55	1.1	94	95+	19
2	Chelsea	73	2.3	5	95+	34
3	Adrian	80	2.7		95+	31
4	Carleton Airport	114	4.2			52
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	138	5.2			63
6	Tecumseh	149	5.7			64
7	Grosse Ile	173	6.9			71
8	Dundee	206	8.1			77
9	Ypsilanti Community	234	8.8			85
10	Riverview	304	10.2			105
11	Trenton	319	10.9			106
12	Milan	355	12.0			111
13	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	385	13.4			117
14	Melvindale	389	13.6			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	1.9
3	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	3.2
4	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	4.0
5	11	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	5.5
6	11	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	7.6
7	10	Carter Fenner	Adrian	8.0
8	12	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	10.1
9	12	Kyle Biller	New Boston Huron	10.4
10	9	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.6
11	10	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.8
12	10	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	13.8
13	10	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	13.9
14	11	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	16.8
16	9	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	18.3
17	10	Landin Fisher	Adrian	20.1
18	11	Jacob Alt	Ypsilanti Community	20.6
19	11	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	21.2
20	12	Jack Fox	Grosse Ile	21.9
21	9	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	24.0
22	10	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	25.4
23	10	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	25.8
24	9	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	26.3
25	9	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.9
26	10	Dylan Hodges	Chelsea	27.1
27	12	Malaki Muhammud	Ypsilanti Community	27.3
28	11	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	27.7
29	10	Eddy Hedrick	Adrian	29.7
30	10	Sam Clifton	Chelsea	31.0