Blog

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

As I had anticipated over the summer, Region 10 will be competitive both for attaining a trip to MIS and hoisting a regional championship trophy. Fremont has moved into the 3^rd spot here, greatly helped by the improved efforts of Mossen Green, a sophomore who has moved into the 17’s for his past three races. Sparta had been ranked well all year, but unfortunately seems to be missing one of their top contributors. Though an extremely quick top-three gives them a chance to put some distance on the Packers.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Cedar Springs	92	1.2	80	95+	10
2	Gladwin	105	2.2	15	95+	12
3	Fremont	122	3.1		74	20
4	Sparta	135	4.2		22	21
5	Spring Lake	150	5.4			25
6	Petoskey	157	5.8			27
7	Whitehall	168	6.8			32
8	Howard City Tri-County	186	8.1			33
9	Ludington	202	9.2			40
10	Big Rapids	202	9.2			39
11	Muskegon Oakridge	267	11.1			70
12	Cadillac	289	12.0			62
13	Fruitport	305	12.9			80
14	Gaylord	413	14.0			108
15	Muskegon Orchard View	460	15.0			118

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	1.3
2	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	2.7
3	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	3.7
4	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	4.1
5	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	5.5
6	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	6.6
7	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	7.7
8	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	8.6
9	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	9.3
10	12	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	9.8
11	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	11.1
12	10	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	14.8
13	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	15.1
14	11	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	16.2
15	10	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	16.6
16	11	Carson Wood	Sparta	17.2
17	12	Cole Lowery	Fremont	17.4
18	11	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	17.5
19	11	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	21.7
20	12	Parker Fettig	Petoskey	22.8
21	12	Andrew Boeringa	Whitehall	24.1
22	10	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	24.4
23	12	Blake Taylor	Fremont	25.3
24	11	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	25.7
25	12	David Reisterer	Ludington	26.5
26	10	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	26.8
27	10	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	27.3
28	9	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	27.6
29	9	Declan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	31.5
30	11	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	32.5

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The concentration of a great running community bears its head in the individual race, where Jeb Hillary, Kilian Whalen, and Will Engbers are all candidates to win. Portage was home to all three, with Engbers nabbing a PR in his 2^nd place finish. Hillary and then Whalen trekked in close behind. Engbers has been lightly raced in the three weeks since, picking up an OK Black title. Whalen and Hillary have each nabbed PR’s of their own.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Allendale	32	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	62	2.0		95+	4
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	111	3.0		95+	23
4	Zeeland East	135	4.2			26
5	Hamilton	146	5.3			35
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	148	5.6			29
7	Holland	182	7.0			50
8	Hopkins	233	8.0			74
9	Comstock Park	278	9.9			82
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	286	10.8			87
11	Grand Rapids West Catholic	288	10.8			89
12	Grand River Preparatory	288	10.9			88
13	Coopersville	318	12.6			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	2.3
3	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	2.4
4	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	4.4
5	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	5.2
6	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	6.4
7	10	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.5
8	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	8.8
9	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	9.0
10	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	10.7
11	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	10.7
12	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	12.1
13	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	13.0
14	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	13.4
15	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.3
16	11	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	17.5
17	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	17.8
18	10	Graeson Decker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.3
19	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	19.4
20	12	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	19.4
21	12	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.3
22	12	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	22.0
23	9	Aiden Lambers	Holland	23.0
24	11	Riley Hart	Holland Christian	23.4
25	10	Nate Davis	Zeeland East	25.4
26	10	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.9
27	12	Caleb DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.3
28	12	Ben Dykstra	Hamilton	27.5
29	12	Jackson Meyers	Allendale	28.8
30	9	Kash Moored	Hopkins	29.7

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

You’d think with three top-6 teams, it’d get a bit more exciting. Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and East Grand Rapids, all OK White competitors, all positioned as strong favorites to advance. The only question is the order. The Eagles captured all three of the jamborees, the Pioneers finished ahead of the Hawks in two of them. The same general order was the case at Portage. Perhaps the fifth (or more?) time’s the charm?

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	50	1.1	94	95+	2
2	Forest Hills Eastern	69	2.4	5	95+	5
3	East Grand Rapids	73	2.6		95+	6
4	Plainwell	128	4.0			16
5	Richland Gull Lake	184	5.2			38
6	Wayland Union	212	6.8			54
7	Portland	214	6.7			51
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	234	8.5			60
9	Grand Rapids South Christian	236	8.7			58
10	Belding	249	10.0			69
11	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	251	10.2			73
12	Hastings	294	12.0			81
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	324	13.4			86
14	Ionia	332	13.6			91

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	1.1
2	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	2.4
3	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	2.5
4	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	6.0
5	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	6.0
6	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	7.8
7	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	8.0
8	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	8.8
9	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	9.1
10	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.4
11	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	12.4
12	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	14.0
13	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	14.8
14	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	14.9
15	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	16.3
16	11	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	17.3
17	11	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	18.1
18	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
19	9	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	20.1
20	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	20.1
21	11	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	23.6
22	11	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	24.1
23	11	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	24.5
24	12	Micah Johnson	Hastings	24.9
25	12	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	25.2
26	11	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	26.0
27	11	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.4
28	9	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	27.2
29	11	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	28.2
30	12	Nick Whitmer	Forest Hills Eastern	28.2

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three Rivers, attempting to hold off Edwardsburg or beat Otsego for the third time. The Wildcats conquered the Otsego giant during the Wolverine Conference season, winning their first league championship in many years. Though the conference season didn’t see the emergence of Gunnar Djerf, who’s suddenly knocking on the sub-17 door. Edwardsburg placed 2^nd in that conference meet, buoyed by the coming out party of a Riley Szalai, a freshman who’s progressed from the 20+ range into the 17’s. Though megafans of the site will know this – the Wildcats are forever underrated.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Marshall	76	1.1	94	95+	8
2	Otsego	96	2.3	6	92	14
3	Three Rivers	103	2.9		81	18
4	Edwardsburg	116	3.7		26	24
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	139	5.2			30
6	St. Joseph	152	5.7			42
7	Berrien Springs	197	7.7			55
8	Sturgis	203	8.1			56
9	Vicksburg	208	8.5			57
10	Niles	225	9.7			65
11	Paw Paw	261	11.2			76
12	Coldwater	278	11.7			78
13	Dowagiac Union	354	13.0			101
14	South Haven	428	14.3			112
15	Stevensville Lakeshore	440	14.7			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	1.0
2	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	2.5
3	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
4	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	3.6
5	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	5.5
6	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	5.9
7	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.2
8	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	9.0
9	12	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	10.0
10	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	11.0
11	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	11.4
12	12	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	13.4
13	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	14.2
14	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	14.3
15	11	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	14.6
16	12	Matthew Long	Otsego	15.2
17	10	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	18.0
18	12	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	19.8
19	12	Peyton Eckerley	Berrien Springs	20.9
20	11	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	22.3
21	10	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	22.8
22	10	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	23.4
23	11	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	23.9
24	10	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	24.5
25	10	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	25.0
26	10	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	26.0
27	10	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	26.7
28	11	Clark Erwin	Marshall	28.4
29	12	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	28.6
30	9	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	29.4

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems pretty chalky from the teams, the individuals not so much. Edison Lopeman is known as a championship racer, hitting All-State in track and ripping some mid-15’s come October. Ezekiel Baltierra is making his presence known in important meets, placing 2^nd at Greater Lansing. Dylan Lydic is coming in as the CAAC Red Champion and has stepped into the 15’s on a few occasions too.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Alma	46	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	DeWitt	96	2.0		95+	13
3	Corunna	119	3.0		95+	22
4	Parma Western	144	4.1			28
5	Williamston	164	5.4			36
6	Haslett	174	6.1			44
7	Mason	180	6.5			45
8	Fowlerville	210	8.1			53
9	St. Johns	239	9.2			61
10	Eaton Rapids	253	10.0			66
11	Owosso	269	10.7			75
12	Charlotte	307	12.0			79
13	Jackson Northwest	367	13.5			96
14	Lansing Waverly	369	13.5			97
15	Lansing Eastern	430	15.1			110
16	Lansing Sexton	452	16.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	1.9
2	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	2.1
3	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	2.7
4	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	4.4
5	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	4.9
6	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	7.2
7	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	7.4
8	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	7.8
9	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	10.9
10	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	11.6
11	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	12.0
12	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	12.3
13	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	12.5
14	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.5
15	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	13.0
16	12	Bodie Heiss	Alma	18.0
17	10	Ryan Frantz	Haslett	19.2
18	11	Payton Chandler	Corunna	19.2
19	10	Ezra Nellis	Corunna	19.4
20	11	Luca Lebron	Alma	23.5
21	12	Jaxon Strauch	Corunna	24.8
22	10	Thaddeus Overley	Lansing Waverly	25.3
23	9	Teddy Weber	Williamston	25.5
24	12	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	25.7
25	9	Logan Banner	St. Johns	25.8
26	12	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	26.5
27	11	Joshua Carpenter	DeWitt	26.5
28	9	Sam Johnson	Alma	26.9
29	11	Raymond Herek	Williamston	27.2
30	12	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	28.0

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Four top-15 squads coming for three spots. Shepherd, extremely familiar with their home course, projects to be 3^rd. Freeland, only needing to score four, comes in the third spot. As of this time, it appears that the advantage lies with the 3^rd & 4^th boys, putting enough of a gap on the Falcons to overcome the Hansen advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Frankenmuth	62	1.1	90	95+	7
2	Flint Powers Catholic	73	2.1	10	95+	9
3	Shepherd	81	2.9		91	11
4	Freeland	96	3.9		9	15
5	Flint Kearsley	132	5.1			41
6	Goodrich	149	5.9			49
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	197	7.0			72
8	Bay City John Glenn	243	8.0			83
9	Birch Run	269	9.1			90
10	Essexville-Garber	285	9.9			95
11	Ortonville Brandon	308	11.5			104
12	North Branch	309	11.5			109
13	Imlay City	339	13.0			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.0
2	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.0
4	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	4.3
5	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.6
6	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	5.7
7	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	5.9
8	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	8.4
9	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	9.1
10	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	11.6
11	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	11.8
12	12	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	12.2
13	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	14.1
14	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	15.7
15	11	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	15.8
16	12	Cole Winter	Goodrich	16.4
17	11	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	17.5
18	12	Camden McLeod	Freeland	17.7
19	11	Thomas Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	18.9
20	12	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	19.3
21	11	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	19.3
22	11	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	22.1
23	10	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	24.4
24	11	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	24.7
25	10	Drew Davis	Shepherd	25.5
26	9	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	25.9
27	10	Jackson Horn	Freeland	28.3
28	11	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	28.8
29	11	Jagger Clark	Frankenmuth	29.1
30	10	Nathan Anaya	Freeland	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

How will a bunch of flatland Metro Detroit schools handle the Holly hills? According to Jacob Tanner’s maps, charts, and graphs encyclopedic regional preview, only 5 of the region’s 18 squads have competed on this twisted course.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pinckney	41	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Detroit Country Day	77	2.3		95+	37
3	Dearborn Divine Child	85	2.7		95+	47
4	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	128	4.9			59
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	129	5.0			68
6	Lake Fenton	130	5.1			67
7	Redford Union	186	7.0			84
8	Linden	223	8.4			93
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	235	8.9			98
10	Oak Park	258	9.6			107
11	Garden City	319	11.0			114
12	Detroit Henry Ford	362	12.0			121
13	Detroit Cody	396	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	1.0
2	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.3
3	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	4.0
4	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
5	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	5.1
6	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
7	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	7.0
8	11	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	8.7
9	12	Kyle Osborne	Pinckney	8.8
10	9	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	11.8
11	11	Jake Yono	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	13.1
12	10	Noah Neuman	Pinckney	15.1
13	10	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton	15.5
14	11	Bela Matyus	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	15.8
15	11	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	15.8
16	12	Nicholas Nakic	Dearborn Divine Child	15.9
17	12	Gabe Maciag	Pinckney	16.6
18	9	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	16.8
19	11	Wyatt Larson	Pinckney	19.4
20	12	Alex Kitsopanidis	Detroit Country Day	20.0
21	10	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	22.5
22	12	Ryan Wojichowski	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	22.6
23	12	Deric Tavolette	Redford Union	22.7
24	12	Tamer Zahr	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
25	12	Maximiliano Juarez	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
26	12	Avery Fsadni	Redford Union	27.8
27	9	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.1
28	12	Nicholas Mardelli	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.5
29	10	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	28.9
30	12	Michael Porter Jr.	Redford Union	30.8

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three proud traditions, one regional trophy. Yale, St. Clair, Macomb Lutheran North. They all come from different walks – the BWAC, MAC Red, Catholic League. Thankfully the Brooks Mid-Season Spectacular has become sort of a regional haven for fast times and competition. Lutheran North placed ahead of St. Clair on that Goodells track. Both St. Clair and Yale traveled to Portage, where Yale finished a solid distance ahead of the Saints. Would appear that the Mustangs and Bulldogs are a bit ahead, though the Saints have nothing to lose.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Yale	42	1.5	61	95+	46
2	Macomb Lutheran North	47	2.2	17	95+	43
3	St. Clair	49	2.3	22	95+	48
4	Madison Heights Lamphere	154	4.6			92
5	Armada	160	4.9			99
6	Richmond	168	5.8			94
7	Croswell-Lexington	183	7.4			102
8	Marysville	184	7.4			103
9	Center Line	291	9.2			120
10	Harper Woods	308	10.0			122
11	Warren Lincoln	337	11.1			123
12	Detroit Southeastern Tech	361	12.2			125
13	Harper Woods Chandler Park	373	13.1			126
14	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	380	13.5			127

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	11	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	2.3
3	10	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	3.5
4	12	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	5.2
5	11	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.0
6	12	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	6.1
7	12	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.5
8	11	Nolan Korolden	Yale	9.7
9	11	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	9.7
10	10	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	11.3
11	12	Kale Kovach	Yale	11.4
12	10	Logan Rhodes	Yale	11.4
13	9	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	12.9
14	11	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	13.6
15	9	Brady VanConant	Yale	14.2
16	12	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	15.2
17	12	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	17.0
18	12	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	18.6
19	12	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.0
20	11	Oliver Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
21	10	Nino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
22	10	Brendan Koza	Marysville	22.2
23	9	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.6
24	9	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	24.5
25	12	Sawyer Rosberg	Richmond	25.2
26	12	Jack Nicol	Yale	25.4
27	11	Robert Carrigan	Armada	27.3
28	11	Gavin Bishop	St. Clair	27.3
29	11	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	28.0
30	10	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	29.9

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

New Boston Huron vs. history. The regional favorite looks to end a 35 year drought in state qualifying, as the last boys squad to advance did so in 1979. There will be some demons to smother from last year, thankfully the Chiefs’ dominant top-two is a comforting safety blanket.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	New Boston Huron	55	1.1	94	95+	19
2	Chelsea	73	2.3	5	95+	34
3	Adrian	80	2.7		95+	31
4	Carleton Airport	114	4.2			52
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	138	5.2			63
6	Tecumseh	149	5.7			64
7	Grosse Ile	173	6.9			71
8	Dundee	206	8.1			77
9	Ypsilanti Community	234	8.8			85
10	Riverview	304	10.2			105
11	Trenton	319	10.9			106
12	Milan	355	12.0			111
13	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	385	13.4			117
14	Melvindale	389	13.6			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	1.9
3	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	3.2
4	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	4.0
5	11	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	5.5
6	11	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	7.6
7	10	Carter Fenner	Adrian	8.0
8	12	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	10.1
9	12	Kyle Biller	New Boston Huron	10.4
10	9	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.6
11	10	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.8
12	10	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	13.8
13	10	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	13.9
14	11	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	16.8
16	9	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	18.3
17	10	Landin Fisher	Adrian	20.1
18	11	Jacob Alt	Ypsilanti Community	20.6
19	11	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	21.2
20	12	Jack Fox	Grosse Ile	21.9
21	9	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	24.0
22	10	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	25.4
23	10	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	25.8
24	9	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	26.3
25	9	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.9
26	10	Dylan Hodges	Chelsea	27.1
27	12	Malaki Muhammud	Ypsilanti Community	27.3
28	11	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	27.7
29	10	Eddy Hedrick	Adrian	29.7
30	10	Sam Clifton	Chelsea	31.0

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 19

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The pristine NW corner of the state will be home to a fierce competition for a qualifying spot. Elk Rapids has been a presence on the D3 scene for the past few years, Boyne City hasn’t qualified for State in 20+ seasons. Both the Ramblers and Elks are strong up front; thus, this will likely come down to the 3^rd thru 7^th girls.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Clare	79	2.0		95+	15
3	Boyne City	133	3.1		87	34
4	Elk Rapids	148	3.9		13	38
5	Charlevoix	182	6.1			53
6	Cheboygan	183	6.2			51
7	Grayling	183	6.4			55
8	Tawas	194	7.5			59
9	Kalkaska	215	9.0			67
10	Farwell	232	10.1			74
11	Standish-Sterling	243	10.7			78
12	Roscommon	272	12.0			86
13	Harrison	347	13.0			99

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	2.2
3	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	3.3
4	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	3.7
5	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.4
6	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	8.3
7	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	8.5
8	11	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	9.7
9	11	Paige Ritchie	Traverse City St. Francis	10.5
10	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	11.6
11	11	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	12.1
12	12	Alyssa Runyan	Tawas	12.4
13	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	13.2
14	9	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	14.8
15	11	Delaney Little	Boyne City	16.1
16	10	Lauren Leis	Clare	16.2
17	9	Leah Leis	Clare	16.3
18	10	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	17.1
19	11	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	17.9
20	12	Maya Rohrer	Charlevoix	22.5
21	11	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	23.2
22	12	Avery Lopez	Oscoda	23.8
23	10	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	24.0
24	12	Ashley Nguyen	Tawas	24.1
25	9	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	24.3
26	10	Cloee Rupp	Cheboygan	28.3
27	11	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	28.5
28	9	Kylee Jenkins	Kalkaska	29.1
29	10	Catie Janisse	Roscommon	30.3
30	10	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	31.6

Region 20

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Remus Chippewa Hills spark some magic and knock off a Hart or McBain. Three years ago, the Warriors sprung a massive upset on their home course, setting off a streak of three straight state qualifying teams. In order to make it four, they’ll have to go through the traditionally strong Hart team and a McBain outfit that just dominated the Highland Conference.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Benzie Central	52	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Hart	91	2.5		90	11
3	McBain	96	2.8		83	12
4	Remus Chippewa Hills	110	3.6		27	16
5	Lake City	162	5.4			28
6	Manistee	169	5.7			26
7	Reed City	202	7.2			39
8	Leroy Pine River	221	8.1			58
9	Shelby	235	8.9			54
10	Lakeview	256	10.0			65
11	Mason County Central	272	11.0			71
12	Manton	285	11.7			75
13	Kingsley	333	13.0			88
14	Morley-Stanwood	419	14.0			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	1.1
2	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	2.8
3	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	3.1
4	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	3.3
5	9	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	5.5
6	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	6.9
7	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.6
8	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	8.7
9	9	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	9.4
10	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	10.6
11	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	10.9
12	10	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	11.4
13	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	14.5
14	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	15.1
15	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	16.1
16	10	Kayden Hinton	McBain	16.4
17	12	Audrey Huizinga	Manistee	19.7
18	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	19.9
19	10	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	20.7
20	10	Betsy Gooden	Manton	21.1
21	9	Faith Helsel	Lake City	21.5
22	11	Elizabeth Ontis	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.9
23	12	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	22.4
24	12	Clara Smoes	Reed City	23.2
25	9	Madilynn Fancett	McBain	27.1
26	9	Joselyn Flores	Hart	28.3
27	11	Georgia Haag	Manistee	28.3
28	9	Bryn Riley	Hart	28.9
29	10	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	29.0
30	12	Harriet Kidder	Hart	29.5

Region 21

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Who can make it back between Grandville Calvin Christian and Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian. Calvin Christian had been a mainstay for forever in D3, hitting a bit of a lull these past few years. NorthPointe hasn’t made it to the Finals since 2012. A week ago in the OK Silver Final, the Squires bested the Mustangs by 9 points, largely on the strength of their top-2 girls who hit sub-20’s.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	70	1.3	74	95+	9
2	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	76	1.7	26	95+	10
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	116	3.4		59	19
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	122	3.6		41	23
5	Saranac	186	6.0			50
6	Olivet	187	5.6			45
7	Newaygo	199	6.9			52
8	The Potter’s House	215	8.4			60
9	Kent City	220	8.9			62
10	Holland Black River	227	9.2			66
11	Montague	270	11.0			77
12	Delton-Kellogg	302	12.4			83
13	North Muskegon	306	12.6			84
14	Ravenna	362	14.1			95
15	Grant	383	14.8			97

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.4
2	12	Grace Vanderkooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.9
3	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	3.0
4	10	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.8
5	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	6.9
6	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	6.9
7	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	7.6
8	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	7.7
9	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	8.5
10	12	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	9.5
11	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	11.2
12	10	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.8
13	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	14.9
14	9	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	15.6
15	10	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.3
16	10	Kaylie Riksen	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	16.6
17	9	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	17.4
18	12	Ava Wilson	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.5
19	9	Esther Cahill	Saranac	20.2
20	9	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.7
21	12	Kylie Main	Delton-Kellogg	22.9
22	11	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.2
23	10	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.7
24	12	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	24.6
25	10	Ava Langerak	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	26.0
26	11	Sylvia Skujins	North Muskegon	26.6
27	11	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.1
28	9	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.3
29	12	Grace Torsch	Montague	28.7
30	10	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.8

Region 22

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which of the two will make it between Buchanan, Schoolcraft, and Union City? Both Schoolcraft and Buchanan have more depth, though Parker Williams is coming strong for Union City.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saugatuck	64	1.1	90	95+	14
2	Buchanan	79	2.5	7	89	22
3	Schoolcraft	86	3.1		68	29
4	Union City	92	3.5		41	25
5	Kalamazoo Christian	121	4.9			40
6	Niles Brandywine	162	6.2			57
7	Fennville	178	6.9			61
8	Watervliet	216	8.3			76
9	Centreville	243	9.5			82
10	Bangor	245	9.5			79
11	Hartford	276	10.7			91
12	Constantine	348	12.0			96
13	Bloomingdale	405	13.4			100
14	Comstock	405	13.6			101

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	1.0
2	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	3.6
3	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	3.6
4	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	4.2
5	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	4.6
6	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	5.9
7	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	6.1
8	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	7.4
9	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.2
10	9	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	11.8
11	11	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	13.8
12	9	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	14.9
13	12	Alissa Skirka	Union City	15.1
14	9	Avery Mollberg	Buchanan	16.6
15	12	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	18.3
16	12	Ava Vlietstra	Kalamazoo Christian	18.7
17	12	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	18.7
18	12	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	18.8
19	11	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	20.2
20	9	Alyda Leep	Schoolcraft	21.9
21	12	Kara Kerwin	Kalamazoo Christian	22.7
22	12	Alayah Nieuwsma	Saugatuck	23.1
23	12	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	23.2
24	10	Emma Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	25.1
25	9	Avery McCrum	Schoolcraft	26.2
26	12	Isabelle Overmyer	Buchanan	26.8
27	12	Samantha Pavlak	Schoolcraft	27.2
28	12	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	27.4
29	10	Parker Williams	Union City	29.1
30	11	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	30.5

Region 23

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three teams separated by eight points, all with somewhat equal chances of making it to another week: Jonesville, Hanover-Horton, and Bronson. The former two have faced off in the Cascades Conference, Hanover-Horton holding serve in the conference final (if their points were counted). The wild card is Bronson, who has two low sticks, an added advantage here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	40	1.0	95+	95+	6
2	Onsted	94	2.1		95+	21
3	Bronson	125	3.8		36	30
4	Jonesville	128	4.0		43	36
5	Hanover-Horton	133	4.4		21	35
6	Hudson	162	6.6			46
7	Hillsdale	165	6.9			47
8	Quincy	170	7.4			49
9	Napoleon	198	9.1			64
10	Sand Creek	213	9.8			70
11	Homer	281	11.0			90

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	1.1
2	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.9
3	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	3.5
4	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	3.9
5	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	5.3
6	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	6.4
7	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.8
8	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.2
9	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.4
10	10	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	12.0
11	10	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	13.3
12	9	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	13.4
13	10	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.5
14	12	Lainey Yearling	Quincy	16.2
15	10	Kiera Knight	Jonesville	16.9
16	11	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	18.3
17	9	Madalynn Trame	Sand Creek	18.4
18	12	Allie England	Onsted	19.3
19	12	Mia Sanchez	Jackson Lumen Christi	19.8
20	10	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	20.7
21	11	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	21.6
22	9	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	22.5
23	12	Jayla Bright	Hudson	23.8
24	12	Jordyn Taylor	Onsted	24.3
25	10	Joleane Gulledge	Jonesville	24.6
26	12	Charlotte Crabbs	Quincy	25.4
27	11	Abby Frederick	Jackson Lumen Christi	25.5
28	11	Makenzy Lindemann	Napoleon	26.2
29	10	Kendahl Drake	Jonesville	27.7
30	10	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	29.8

Region 24

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another Pewamo-Westphalia and Stanton Central Montcalm matchup. Pretty much the same formula as the boys, though the Hornets may be even more imposing up front. The Pirates can match that with Whitney Werner and Alyssa Kramer. Does the Blue n’ Yellow depth overwhelm or does a girl such as Braelyn Bunting continue her rise? Maybe both as these two squads focus in on podium finishes in the coming weeks.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	36	1.2	83	95+	3
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	40	1.8	17	95+	4
3	Laingsburg	88	3.0		95+	20
4	Bath	111	4.1			33
5	Ovid-Elsie	137	5.2			48
6	Chesaning	146	5.7			56
7	New Lothrop	172	7.0			69
8	Montrose	234	8.0			94

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.4
3	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	3.0
4	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.7
5	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.0
6	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	6.6
7	9	Madison Wils	Bath	7.4
8	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
9	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	8.8
10	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.8
11	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.8
12	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	12.9
13	10	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.0
14	11	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	10	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.3
16	12	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	17.8
17	9	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	17.9
18	11	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.2
19	10	Lilli Morrill	Laingsburg	23.2
20	9	Leah Theile	Chesaning	23.3
21	11	Logan Trygstad	Stanton Central Montcalm	23.8
22	9	Kendal Tokar	Ovid-Elsie	24.1
23	12	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	24.8
24	9	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	25.0
25	10	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	26.1
26	11	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	27.1
27	12	Makayla Reiber	Chesaning	27.6
28	12	Ally Andres	New Lothrop	28.1
29	12	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	28.2
30	12	Amelie Bertels	Bath	28.9

Region 25

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Saginaw Valley Lutheran and Sanford-Meridian. Both were able to use the Bluejay Invite as a course preview. Unfortunately for us previewers and prognosticators, the two squads were in separate races. Comparing times, the Mustangs were a bit stronger at the 4^th spot. Which might look to be an advantage, until you consider how well the Chargers ran at the Saginaw County Championship, putting three girls in the top-20 and placing 3^rd.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ithaca	41	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Midland Bullock Creek	84	2.0		95+	17
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	110	3.4		70	27
4	Sanford-Meridian	115	3.8		28	31
5	St. Louis	131	5.2			37
6	Caro	142	6.1			44
7	Pigeon-Laker	145	6.5			41
8	Sandusky	181	8.0			68
9	Millington	240	9.0			89
10	Cass City	254	10.0			93
11	Pinconning	324	11.0			102
12	Carrollton	347	12.0			105

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	1.3
2	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	3.0
3	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	3.3
4	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	4.2
5	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	5.3
6	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.6
7	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	7.1
8	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	9.3
9	10	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	9.7
10	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	10.4
11	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	10.4
12	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	12.6
13	12	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	14.5
14	10	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	14.5
15	12	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	15.2
16	9	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	19.1
17	11	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	20.0
18	11	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	20.1
19	9	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	20.5
20	10	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	20.8
21	9	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	21.3
22	11	Halle Hoyt	St. Louis	21.5
23	11	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	23.5
24	10	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	9	Samantha Skym	Midland Bullock Creek	24.0
26	11	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	24.1
27	9	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	24.4
28	11	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	26.7
29	10	Bayleigh Finney	Sanford-Meridian	29.4
30	11	Braylee Rice	Reese	31.3

Region 26

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Lansing Catholic vs. the long bus ride. The Cougars will have plenty of time to stew over traveling across half the state and will likely take out their frustration on the field. They’ve been packed up at the front of races all year, this region seeming to be no different.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	24	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Leslie	52	2.0		95+	8
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	91	3.0		95+	24
4	Almont	127	4.0			42
5	Marine City	166	5.5			72
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	169	5.7			73
7	Algonac	199	7.7			80
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	199	7.7			81
9	Wixom St. Catherine	210	8.6			87
10	Stockbridge	228	9.8			92
11	Detroit Osborn	321	11.0			103

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	1.0
2	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	2.1
3	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	4.2
4	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	4.3
5	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	5.2
6	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	6.6
7	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	8.7
8	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	9.1
9	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	9.4
10	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	10.1
11	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	11.3
12	10	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.2
13	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	13.3
14	9	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	13.5
15	12	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	15.1
16	11	Laila Evola	Almont	16.4
17	11	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.3
18	12	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	18.9
19	9	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	19.0
20	11	Greta Schwarberg	Almont	21.3
21	10	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.0
22	10	Aubrey Pilon	Marine City	23.5
23	12	Maddie Szlachta	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	23.7
24	12	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	24.0
25	11	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	24.4
26	12	Kate Bennett	Algonac	25.9
27	12	Elizabeth Ballor	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	28.1
28	10	Emma Reimer	New Haven	28.9
29	9	Violet Massaglia	Marine City	29.3
30	11	JayLee Chapman	Stockbridge	30.5

Region 27

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Eliza Bush vs. the record books. The Oakland bound senior has won twice here and is a strong favorite to make it three in a row. She’s lost only twice this year, hitting her first sub-18 at Stockbridge. To this point, it’s been her best season yet in a career that’s contained 3 All-State finishes.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Blissfield	35	1.0	95+	95+	13
2	Grass Lake	47	2.0		95+	18
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	70	3.0		95+	32
4	Erie Mason	91	4.0			43
5	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	118	5.0			63
6	Ida	147	6.0			85
7	Detroit Cristo Rey	220	7.0			104

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.0
2	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.2
3	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.8
4	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	5.5
5	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	5.7
6	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	5.8
7	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	6.2
8	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	9.0
9	12	Mia Schroeder	Monroe Jefferson	9.1
10	10	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	11.5
11	11	Julia Hughes	Ida	13.1
12	12	Autumn Pernell	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	13.3
13	9	Ella Claus	Clinton	14.7
14	12	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	15.0
15	12	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
16	12	Elizabeth Lambert	Erie Mason	15.8
17	10	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	17.4
18	12	Alaina McClain	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	17.6
19	10	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	17.6
20	10	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	18.1
21	10	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
22	12	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
23	12	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	24.4
24	9	Kate Otting	Erie Mason	24.7
25	11	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	24.7
26	11	Natalie Benitez	Blissfield	26.3
27	10	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	27.2
28	11	Taylor Hoppe	Grass Lake	30.7
29	9	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	31.1
30	11	Riley England	Erie Mason	31.2

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 19

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Traverse City St. Francis vs. the world. Last fall, the Glads placed all seven varsity runners in the top-11, then went onto claim a win at the State Finals. Next week, the competition will be a bit stronger, but this week can be a nice springboard into a repeat. By the way, the projections again have all seven in the top-11.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	21	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Charlevoix	57	2.0		95+	10
3	Clare	102	3.0		95+	29
4	Roscommon	160	4.1			46
5	Boyne City	182	5.4			57
6	Elk Rapids	189	6.1			58
7	Kalkaska	207	7.2			71
8	Grayling	207	7.4			69
9	Standish-Sterling	234	9.2			77
10	Cheboygan	242	9.7			80
11	Beaverton	290	11.3			89
12	Harrison	303	11.8			100
13	Tawas	344	13.4			108
14	Farwell	348	13.6			107

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	1.3
2	10	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	2.2
3	10	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	2.6
4	12	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	4.9
5	12	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	5.6
6	10	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	5.9
7	11	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	6.9
8	12	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	8.1
9	12	Joseph Carlson	Traverse City St. Francis	8.4
10	11	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	10.1
11	12	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	10.9
12	10	Connor Schmidt	Clare	12.6
13	12	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	13.2
14	12	Anthony Cole	Roscommon	14.2
15	10	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	14.8
16	12	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	19.0
17	9	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	19.1
18	10	Jake Klemmer	Roscommon	19.9
19	10	Finn Parish	Boyne City	20.9
20	10	Sutton Klaus	Clare	21.1
21	11	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	21.3
22	12	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	23.7
23	9	William (Liam) Mahaffy	Grayling	25.0
24	11	Neiko Ketchum	Clare	25.1
25	11	Clayton Peacock	Clare	25.3
26	10	Christian Villa-Bilton	Clare	26.1
27	11	Carson Kiefer	Cheboygan	27.7
28	11	Gage Spencer	Beaverton	28.5
29	11	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	29.5
30	10	Eli Williamson	Standish-Sterling	30.8

Region 20

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three teams vying for the win. A projected 16 point separate Reed City, Hart, and Benzie Central. The Pirates will come with depth, hoping to displace both the Huskies and ‘Yotes. Of course, Benzie will be at home, using course knowledge to their advantage. And with the reliable Gus Rohde up front, Reed City only has to score four. At Bluejay, the trio came together for one matchup, Hart scoring considerably less than the other two. But you must take into account that depth is a greater advantage in larger fields.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Hart	60	1.3	70	95+	16
2	Reed City	66	2.0	22	95+	15
3	Benzie Central	76	2.7	8	95+	21
4	Lake City	106	4.0			27
5	Leroy Pine River	179	5.5			55
6	Manton	182	5.6			52
7	Manistee	215	7.0			67
8	Kingsley	244	8.5			75
9	Remus Chippewa Hills	262	9.6			81
10	Hesperia	269	10.0			82
11	Shelby	270	10.1			83
12	McBain	303	12.2			91
13	Morley-Stanwood	314	12.8			95
14	Mason County Central	332	13.7			103

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	August Rohde	Reed City	1.0
2	11	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	2.1
3	11	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	4.2
4	10	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	4.9
5	9	Eli Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	5.3
6	11	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	6.0
7	9	Silas Ackley	Hart	6.5
8	11	Paul Saladin	Reed City	8.0
9	12	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	9.0
10	11	Jack Slotman	Hart	13.1
11	11	Connor Helsel	Lake City	13.9
12	9	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	14.1
13	10	Aiden Schaner	Hart	14.4
14	9	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	15.3
15	10	Pascal Miller	Hart	15.5
16	9	Grant Ackley	Hart	16.8
17	10	Nathan Lenington	Leroy Pine River	20.1
18	10	Mason Opalewski	Hart	20.6
19	12	Benjamin Deridder	Benzie Central	20.6
20	11	Wyatt Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	21.4
21	11	Owen Butkovich	Lake City	22.0
22	10	Carson Ackley	Hart	22.8
23	11	Ethan Baker	Leroy Pine River	23.9
24	9	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	25.3
25	11	Kaden Worch	Manistee	25.8
26	10	Braydn Winkel	McBain	26.0
27	11	Iziquiel Picon	Shelby	27.4
28	12	Christian Schramski	Manistee	28.0
29	11	Jack Helsel	Manton	29.7
30	11	Kyle Vincent	Benzie Central	30.3

Region 21

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A rare scenario here where three teams will vie for one spot. Holland Black River, The Potter’s House, and Montague come in closely for the third qualifying place. Black River has been in the driver’s seat all year, Potter’s House is closing fast, especially helped by the progressions of Edward Mugisha and Reed Osterink.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	49	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	73	2.0		95+	12
3	Holland Black River	101	3.4		62	20
4	The Potter’s House	110	4.3		18	22
5	Montague	110	4.2		20	23
6	Olivet	199	6.2			41
7	Saranac	219	7.0			51
8	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	248	8.5			59
9	Parchment	260	9.3			63
10	Kent City	268	9.9			64
11	Newaygo	279	10.8			73
12	Grandville Calvin Christian	291	11.3			72
13	Delton-Kellogg	351	13.6			90
14	North Muskegon	351	13.6			96
15	Ravenna	376	14.9			101

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	1.3
2	12	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.7
3	11	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	3.5
4	10	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	3.9
5	10	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	6.2
6	10	Barrett Nance	North Muskegon	6.6
7	10	David Castrejon	Newaygo	7.5
8	12	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.9
9	9	Nolan Kessler	Montague	10.3
10	12	Tyler N. Kooienga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	10.8
11	12	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	11.4
12	11	Noah Raeth	Montague	11.4
13	9	Casper Banner	Holland Black River	14.3
14	10	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	14.5
15	10	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	15.3
16	12	Elliot Cole	Parchment	16.8
17	12	Alexander Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.4
18	12	Alix Draves	Montague	17.8
19	11	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.0
20	10	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.5
21	10	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.2
22	11	Kaden Mingerink	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	25.3
23	11	Isaac Struck-Vanderhaak	The Potter’s House	26.1
24	11	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River	26.5
25	10	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.2
26	11	Brandon McCullough	Kent City	28.0
27	11	Max McDowell	Olivet	28.4
28	12	Reed Osterink	The Potter’s House	29.1
29	11	Isaac Westra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.4
30	12	Bucky Aney	Montague	29.8

Region 22

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Will Daniel Mandujano complete the process? In three years, he’s gone from 13^th to 5^th to now holding the fastest time of any Region 22 boy. He’s been in the low-16’s for the past month, racing to a 2^nd place finish in the SAC and I believe, a school record. The contender that may give him trouble is Ben Gautsche, who hit a 16:27 at Stockbridge and a 16:21 this past week.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saugatuck	38	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Buchanan	62	2.0		95+	11
3	Union City	83	3.0		95+	19
4	Schoolcraft	147	4.1			35
5	Watervliet	180	5.9			48
6	Centreville	181	6.3			54
7	Hartford	190	6.8			53
8	Bangor	206	8.4			61
9	Constantine	209	8.5			60
10	Galesburg-Augusta	216	9.0			62
11	Bloomingdale	259	11.0			78
12	Coloma	327	12.0			98
13	Fennville	388	13.0			112
14	Comstock	420	14.0			115

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	1.2
2	11	Ben Gautsche	Union City	2.7
3	9	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	4.8
4	11	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	5.4
5	10	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	6.5
6	10	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.5
7	12	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	7.0
8	10	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	8.8
9	11	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	9.1
10	12	Jason Shoop	Union City	10.7
11	10	John Keser	Buchanan	12.1
12	11	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	12.1
13	12	Landen Bouchard	Galesburg-Augusta	13.5
14	11	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	14.0
15	11	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	15.5
16	0	Will Hulin	Centreville	15.7
17	10	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	16.3
18	12	Carlos Ruiz	Hartford	19.7
19	12	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	20.3
20	12	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	20.7
21	12	Cohen Burdick	Union City	21.6
22	9	Ira Brown	Saugatuck	22.1
23	12	Robbie King	Constantine	22.9
24	12	Malachi Payne	Union City	24.5
25	9	Ashton Skinner	Saugatuck	26.0
26	12	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	26.4
27	12	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	27.8
28	10	Cullen Decker	Union City	28.1
29	10	Josaias Robles	Hartford	30.2
30	10	Noah June	Union City	31.2

Region 23

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The top end talent in Region 23 is absurd. Mitchell Hiatt would be the heavy favorite in pretty much every region, but here, the odds are a bit tighter. The top-4 seeds in terms of time have gone under 16:00, by my estimation, there are 5 legitimate contenders for top-10 spots at MIS. Hiatt is increasingly looking like a candidate to take it all, but if he has a subpar race here, any of Caleb Blonde, Ziggy Dinverno, Leo Swager, or Landen Boulis could swoop in for the win.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	38	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Hanover-Horton	63	2.0		95+	6
3	Jonesville	84	3.0		95+	14
4	Onsted	130	4.1			30
5	Brooklyn Columbia Central	145	4.9			31
6	Sand Creek	191	6.1			50
7	Homer	219	7.7			68
8	Bronson	220	7.6			70
9	Napoleon	246	9.7			79
10	Quincy	247	9.7			76
11	Hillsdale	254	10.2			84
12	Hudson	304	12.0			99
13	Springport	352	13.0			111
14	Michigan Center	400	14.0			116

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	1.6
2	12	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.0
3	12	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	4.0
4	12	Leo Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	4.0
5	10	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	4.1
6	11	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.9
7	10	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	7.1
8	11	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	7.8
9	10	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	8.5
10	10	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	11.0
11	11	John Edler	Homer	11.2
12	10	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	14.4
13	10	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	15.6
14	12	James Bayes	Onsted	15.9
15	10	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	16.0
16	10	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	16.9
17	11	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	17.9
18	12	Isaac St. John	Hudson	20.5
19	10	Ethan Huff	Homer	21.4
20	9	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	21.7
21	9	Chris Durfey	Onsted	21.7
22	11	Wyatt Vowell	Brooklyn Columbia Central	21.8
23	12	Jack Gorton	Brooklyn Columbia Central	22.0
24	9	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	22.1
25	9	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	24.7
26	9	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	26.4
27	9	Carson Beach	Hanover-Horton	27.5
28	11	Karl Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	28.9
29	11	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi	28.9
30	11	Nate Ostrosky	Brooklyn Columbia Central	30.8

Region 24

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Depth vs. top end speed. Stanton Central Montcalm is extremely strong through three, even extending to four. Pewamo-Westphalia claims the ability to find seven runners under 18:00. At a larger meet, it’s likely the Pirates. A condensed field at the regional level, Central Montcalm’s odds improve.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	48	1.2	81	95+	5
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	53	1.8	19	95+	9
3	Bath	83	3.0		95+	17
4	Ovid-Elsie	133	4.6			36
5	Laingsburg	134	4.7			39
6	Otisville LakeVille	144	5.7			44
7	Montrose	181	7.6			65
8	Chesaning	183	7.6			66
9	New Lothrop	201	8.9			74
10	Perry	252	10.0			93
11	Mt Morris	346	11.0			119

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	11	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	2.9
3	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	3.0
4	9	Owen Poppema	Bath	3.5
5	11	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.3
6	10	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.7
7	11	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.5
8	12	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
9	10	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.1
10	10	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.4
11	12	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	11.4
12	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	12.6
13	9	Tate Smith	Bath	13.0
14	9	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.6
15	10	River Fox	Bath	14.8
16	10	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.2
17	12	Jason Weber	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.5
18	12	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	19.5
19	12	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	21.7
20	12	Luke Skidmore	Bath	21.7
21	12	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	22.1
22	11	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	23.5
23	9	Eli Hobson	Montrose	23.9
24	12	Felix Ramirez	Laingsburg	24.3
25	12	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	24.6
26	11	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	24.7
27	10	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	25.2
28	11	Cole Maier	Chesaning	25.7
29	9	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	29.1
30	9	Mario Baker	Bath	31.9

Region 25

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

St. Louis vs. the projections. Every year during championship time, those Sharks outperform the numbers. They’ve moved into the three spot here, so I’m safe with regard to qualifying. Absolutely no one will be surprised if they score considerably less than projected.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ithaca	38	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Sanford-Meridian	88	2.3		95+	26
3	St. Louis	92	2.7		95+	28
4	Pigeon-Laker	112	4.5			34
5	Midland Bullock Creek	113	4.8			37
6	Reese	123	5.7			42
7	Cass City	221	7.5			94
8	Carrollton	236	8.1			102
9	Millington	237	8.4			106
10	Hemlock	266	10.0			109
11	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	287	11.0			110
12	Vassar	308	12.0			114

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Landen Styka	Ithaca	1.1
2	12	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	2.5
3	12	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	3.0
4	12	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	4.1
5	10	Luke Herron	Caro	6.0
6	11	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.2
7	10	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	7.3
8	12	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	7.7
9	11	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	9.6
10	12	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	11.1
11	10	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	11.9
12	10	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	13.3
13	11	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	13.8
14	12	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	13.9
15	11	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	14.8
16	9	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	16.3
17	10	Xander Huckins	Reese	18.3
18	12	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	18.4
19	11	Wesley Haines	Reese	18.7
20	11	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	19.9
21	9	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	21.4
22	9	Kale Miklovic	Pigeon-Laker	22.4
23	11	Hayden Shattuck	St. Louis	23.2
24	11	James Schroder	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	12	Jacob Moore	Caro	24.0
26	10	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	25.7
27	10	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	26.0
28	12	Nathaniel Seney	Reese	29.2
29	10	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	29.5
30	10	Connor Czolgosz	Midland Bullock Creek	29.7

Region 26

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Noel Lorenzen in his quest to be the best D3 freshman. He’s passed the test thus far, ripping it on fast courses such as Whitmore Lake, double hills at Possum Hollow, and in the heat at Holly. This weekend at Columbus County Park, the latter two characteristics will be present.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	33	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Leslie	74	2.1		95+	18
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	90	3.0		89	24
4	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	109	3.9		11	33
5	Algonac	153	5.2			49
6	Almont	165	5.8			56
7	Clawson	254	8.3			86
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	254	8.5			88
9	Stockbridge	258	8.9			87
10	University Liggett	267	9.7			92
11	Charyl Stockwell Academy	268	9.7			97
12	Marine City	301	11.9			104
13	New Haven	347	13.0			113
14	Communication Media Arts	418	14.0			118

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.2
2	11	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	2.3
3	10	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	5.2
4	10	William Gancer	Stockbridge	5.3
5	10	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	5.5
6	11	Julian Walker	Algonac	6.6
7	9	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	6.7
8	10	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	8.3
9	9	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	8.3
10	11	Owen Beindit	Algonac	12.3
11	12	Joseph Treadwell	Lansing Catholic	12.6
12	10	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	12.8
13	11	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.7
14	12	Jose Domecq	Leslie	15.9
15	11	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	15.9
16	12	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	16.6
17	9	Carson Potter	Lansing Catholic	16.9
18	10	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	16.9
19	10	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	17.5
20	9	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.4
21	11	Grason Weber	Leslie	20.7
22	10	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.3
23	11	Parth Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.5
24	12	Kyan Isham	Leslie	24.3
25	11	Adam SaintOnge	Almont	25.4
26	10	Colton Grzyb	Almont	25.6
27	10	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	28.9
28	11	Earl Beattie	Marine City	30.0
29	12	Gavin Campbell	Almont	30.2
30	11	Dylan Hile	Leslie	30.2

Region 27

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Flat Rock’s assault on the finish line. The Rams have a very real possibility of their first three crossing the line in succession. Jacob Stanislawski, Nathan Vargo, and Lucas Taraszkiewicz own the fastest three times in the region and the fastest three ratings. A good formula and starting point for regional domination.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Flat Rock	50	1.1	95+	95+	13
2	Erie Mason	73	2.0	5	95+	25
3	Blissfield	106	3.1		90	32
4	Grass Lake	125	4.9		6	40
5	Monroe Jefferson	127	5.0			38
6	Clinton	141	6.4			45
7	Adrian Madison	144	6.7			43
8	Monroe St. Mary CC	146	7.0			47
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	230	9.0			85
10	Ida	257	10.0			105
11	Detroit Northwestern	335	11.0			117

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	1.4
2	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	2.7
3	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	3.8
4	9	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	3.9
5	11	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	4.8
6	12	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	5.8
7	12	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	6.0
8	12	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	8.2
9	12	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	8.9
10	11	Luke Masserant	Monroe Jefferson	10.9
11	12	Andrew Hintz	Monroe Jefferson	13.5
12	11	Luke Stanley	Ida	14.1
13	11	Connor Sherwood	Grass Lake	14.3
14	9	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	14.7
15	9	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	15.2
16	9	Noah Sills	Blissfield	15.9
17	10	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	17.1
18	12	Adam Brodie	Flat Rock	18.0
19	12	Eric Ramsey	Clinton	20.4
20	11	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	21.8
21	9	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	22.9
22	10	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	24.0
23	9	Brayden Brodie	Flat Rock	24.9
24	9	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	26.0
25	11	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	26.0
26	11	Alex Holda	Grass Lake	28.9
27	12	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	29.2
28	11	Emmet Van Cleave	Grass Lake	29.3
29	10	Zack Buttigieg	Grass Lake	30.3
30	10	Austin Strand	Clinton	30.7