Blog

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Jenison breaking up what looked to be a locked in region. What the Wildcats did in the OK Green Final was absolutely uncalled for. Nearly a perfect score, five girls under 19:20. If Jenison were to compete in the OK Red Final, held two days later at Riverside under similar conditions, they probably place 2^nd. Though one meet doesn’t a season make, especially when Rockford and Grand Haven have been performing at a high level all fall.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Holland West Ottawa	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Rockford	82	2.4		94	8
3	Grand Haven	89	3.0		79	10
4	Jenison	97	3.6		27	12
5	Hudsonville	129	5.0			22
6	Grandville	175	6.2			44
7	Zeeland West	183	6.8			49
8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	236	8.2			74
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	249	9.2			79
10	Greenville	257	9.6			85
11	Grand Rapids Northview	332	11.0			101
12	Grand Rapids Union	376	12.0			117
13	Wyoming	423	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.0
2	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	2.1
3	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	3.1
4	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	5.0
5	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	5.5
6	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	5.7
7	12	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	8.4
8	10	Paige McMeans	Jenison	8.7
9	12	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	9.8
10	12	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	12.1
11	11	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	13.2
12	12	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	14.0
13	10	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	14.4
14	9	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	15.1
15	9	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	15.3
16	10	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	16.2
17	10	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	17.7
18	12	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	18.2
19	9	Maddy Aleisa	Jenison	18.3
20	11	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	18.9
21	12	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	20.6
22	9	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	20.6
23	11	Macy Guikema	Jenison	21.9
24	11	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	22.8
25	12	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	23.8
26	12	Melana Karsten	Rockford	27.8
27	11	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	28.2
28	11	Andrea Schwartz	Jenison	28.5
29	10	Ashley Wayne	Hudsonville	28.8
30	12	Gracey Barry	Grand Haven	29.7

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Shepherd is the middle ground between Traverse City West and Okemos. One travels from Lansing, the other from Northern Michigan. Despite the differences, these teams have come across each other already. Portage saw TCW finish 11^th in the D1 race, Okemos 16^th. If Rachel Smith had been able to score for the Wolves, chances are the two outfits would be within a few points, as they are expected to be here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Okemos	60	1.2	82	95+	6
2	Traverse City West	67	1.9	16	95+	9
3	Midland Dow	79	2.9		95+	13
4	Bay City Western	123	4.5			27
5	Traverse City Central	124	4.5			25
6	Grand Ledge	186	6.4			48
7	Midland	197	7.3			50
8	East Lansing	200	7.3			55
9	Mt. Pleasant	239	9.1			63
10	Holt	260	10.1			76
11	Alpena	281	10.9			82
12	Saginaw Heritage	303	11.9			87
13	Lansing Everett	425	13.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	1.2
2	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	2.0
3	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	2.8
4	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	5.1
5	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	5.4
6	11	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	6.9
7	10	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	7.2
8	11	October Harns	Okemos	7.6
9	11	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	8.6
10	10	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	11.7
11	9	Emma McLaughlin	Midland	12.7
12	12	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	12.8
13	12	Ella Reaves	Holt	13.1
14	9	Ariana Rajah	Traverse City Central	13.7
15	11	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	15.7
16	9	Jessa Skonieczny	Mt. Pleasant	17.8
17	9	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	18.4
18	12	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	19.6
19	11	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	20.3
20	11	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	20.4
21	9	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	22.1
22	9	Alyssa McFall	Okemos	22.3
23	11	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	22.8
24	11	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	23.4
25	10	Bridget Raven	Traverse City West	25.2
26	9	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	28.0
27	9	Mya Bower	Okemos	28.6
28	11	Mallory Wilcox	Bay City Western	28.7
29	12	Olivia Tandoc	Okemos	28.9
30	12	Amelia Roznowski	Alpena	30.0

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which unexpected team comes out of this region? Summer projections had Byron Center at 3, Forest Hills Northern at 4, Ottawa Hills at 6, and Caledonia at 8. By those numbers, the most shocking to this point are the Bengals, who just finished 5^th in the OK White, one of the state’s tougher leagues.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Portage Central	53	1.0	95+	95+	11
2	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	100	2.2		95+	26
3	Forest Hills Northern	114	3.2		71	31
4	Byron Center	130	4.2		19	35
5	Caledonia	134	4.3		11	37
6	Forest Hills Central	193	6.2			53
7	Portage Northern	214	7.1			59
8	Kalamazoo Central	227	8.6			61
9	East Kentwood	231	8.8			62
10	Lowell	245	10.4			66
11	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	248	10.6			68
12	Battle Creek Lakeview	256	11.3			73
13	Mattawan	310	13.0			88

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	1.2
2	9	Avery Scott	Portage Central	2.0
3	11	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	3.9
4	9	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	4.2
5	11	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	4.3
6	9	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	5.6
7	11	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	7.7
8	11	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	9.0
9	12	Hannah Dupuis	Caledonia	10.2
10	9	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.4
11	12	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.6
12	9	Julia Welc	Portage Central	12.7
13	12	Sofia Bogard	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	13.0
14	11	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	14.6
15	10	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	14.6
16	9	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	17.4
17	11	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	19.7
18	9	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	19.8
19	10	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	19.8
20	11	Enna Wainer	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	21.1
21	12	Claire O’Boyle	Lowell	23.5
22	11	Donna Haaksma	Byron Center	24.0
23	11	Lilamae Frank	Battle Creek Lakeview	25.1
24	12	Keira Bommarito	Caledonia	25.8
25	12	Alayna Godfrey	East Kentwood	26.8
26	12	Celia Pollock	Byron Center	29.4
27	9	Emmarie Formsma	Byron Center	30.9
28	12	Kiley Bommarito	Caledonia	31.0
29	12	Samantha McClelland	Forest Hills Northern	32.5
30	11	Kate Barron	Mattawan	32.6

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Hartland against Dexter. Hartland holds a bit of an advantage up front, having three girls capable of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Dreadnaughts may not be as quick on the top end, though they bring forth six that can throw down mid-20’s or better. Look to the gaps, if Hartland’s best three are a bit ahead of Dexter’s five, that gap may be enough to counteract the depth.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	30	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	70	2.2		95+	14
3	Hartland	84	3.2		70	18
4	Dexter	92	3.6		30	20
5	Grand Blanc	134	5.4			36
6	Davison	139	5.6			41
7	Lapeer	204	7.0			64
8	Holly	245	8.1			83
9	Howell	262	8.9			89
10	Fenton	297	10.2			93
11	Flushing	307	10.8			96
12	Swartz Creek	366	12.4			110
13	Jackson	366	12.6			109

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	1.5
2	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	2.4
3	9	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	3.8
4	12	Elle Bissett	Brighton	4.4
5	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland	5.8
6	11	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	6.3
7	9	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	7.9
8	10	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	9.2
9	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	10.0
10	11	Courtney Lince	Brighton	10.6
11	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	10.9
12	12	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	11.4
13	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	14.0
14	10	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.7
15	10	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	15.0
16	11	Morgan Christopher	Brighton	16.5
17	10	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	18.1
18	11	Maizie Cavanaugh	Brighton	18.2
19	12	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	21.0
20	12	Addison Bruckman	Dexter	21.0
21	9	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	21.8
22	10	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison	22.1
23	11	Lilah Weber	Lapeer	24.4
24	9	Layla Blumberg	Dexter	24.5
25	9	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.6
26	12	Zoe Howard	Hartland	25.7
27	12	Olivia Gartrell	Davison	25.8
28	11	Ivy Forrest	Davison	28.1
29	9	Hannah DePestel	Hartland	28.7
30	10	Maddie Lindley	Holly	29.7

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A yearly tradition: Ann Arbor Pioneer and Saline. According to Jacob Tanner’s wonderful tome of regional history, this Region 5 title has been won by either of the two for each of the past ten years. Currently, Pioneer leads those standings from 2014 on, 7-3. With these two teams sitting straight at the top of the area, depth becomes less of an issue and Saline’s advantage is a bit thwarted. In spite of that, the projections still have the Hornets as a slight favorite.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	31	1.4	57	95+	3
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32	1.6	43	95+	5
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	90	3.0		95+	32
4	Gibraltar Carlson	152	4.4			69
5	Temperance Bedford	155	4.6			72
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	189	6.0			84
7	Monroe	247	7.6			94
8	Belleville	259	8.7			103
9	Dearborn	260	8.7			98
10	Allen Park	267	9.4			95
11	Ypsilanti Lincoln	288	10.9			105
12	Southgate Anderson	306	11.8			104
13	Detroit Cass Tech	353	13.1			115
14	Dearborn Fordson	373	14.0			116
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	446	14.9			123

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.8
3	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.2
4	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	3.3
5	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	4.9
6	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	6.3
7	10	Katarina Munson	Saline	7.6
8	9	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	8.4
9	11	Lillian (Lilli) Schlack	Saline	9.4
10	10	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.0
11	10	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	11.7
12	12	Grace Roth	Saline	11.9
13	9	Adelynn Turck	Saline	12.2
14	11	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	15.6
15	9	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.6
16	12	Clara Peikert	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.2
17	12	Lucy Pike	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.7
18	12	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	18.0
19	11	Bridget Kerber	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.1
20	10	Adrianna Zub	Allen Park	21.0
21	10	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	22.2
22	10	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	22.9
23	9	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	23.0
24	10	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	25.7
25	11	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.9
26	9	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	27.1
27	9	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson	27.7
28	12	Mercedes Dziendziel	Wyandotte Roosevelt	28.0
29	9	Livia Boucher	Gibraltar Carlson	28.0
30	11	Anna Coury	Monroe	28.0

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Is Farmington’s late season move enough? The Falcons have benefitted from the return of Catherine Steele and the emergence of Kierra Magner. Farmington traveled down 275 for the Huron Invite in an attempt of a course preview, but they cannot come close to the familiarity that the Salem has with Willow, having raced here on three occasions.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	59	1.0	95+	95+	15
2	Ann Arbor Huron	92	2.1		95+	24
3	Farmington	110	3.2		80	30
4	Salem	128	4.3		15	42
5	Livonia Franklin	139	4.9			40
6	Livonia Churchill	152	5.6			45
7	Plymouth	176	7.1			58
8	Canton	199	8.3			65
9	Farmington Hills Mercy	208	8.8			67
10	Livonia Stevenson	230	9.8			78
11	Detroit Renaissance	312	11.3			97
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	324	11.7			99
13	Wayne Memorial	364	13.0			111
14	Westland John Glenn	446	14.0			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	1.4
2	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	3.0
3	12	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	3.8
4	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	4.2
5	10	Colette Lozo	Northville	4.9
6	12	Cassie Garcia	Northville	6.3
7	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	6.9
8	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	8.2
9	11	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	10.8
10	11	Becca Jud	Salem	11.7
11	12	Catherine Steele	Farmington	11.7
12	11	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	14.6
13	12	Molly Baracco	Farmington	15.4
14	10	Samantha Bartell	Salem	16.0
15	9	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	17.0
16	11	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	17.5
17	10	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	18.5
18	11	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	18.6
19	12	Ilett Martinez	Wayne Memorial	19.2
20	12	Rosa Brody	Canton	20.4
21	11	Kierra Magner	Farmington	20.6
22	10	Mia Carson	Northville	20.9
23	11	Ellie Jasperson	Northville	21.3
24	10	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	21.9
25	12	Brooklyn Hannah	Livonia Franklin	23.6
26	9	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	25.1
27	11	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	26.6
28	11	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill	28.4
29	10	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	29.9
30	9	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin	30.1

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Sal’s Magic vs. their LVC foe and the host squad. Coming in at 14^th in Oakland County, Milford was appearing down, out, and out of regional contention. But they’ve put it together in the final few weeks, notching a 2^nd place finish at the LVC Championship, six points ahead of Walled Lake Northern. But they’re both chasing Royal Oak, who’ll hope to use their home track and ability to go six deep to their advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	40	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Novi	79	2.2		95+	28
3	Royal Oak	101	3.3		69	33
4	Walled Lake Northern	118	4.4		13	43
5	Highland-Milford	124	4.4		21	46
6	Birmingham Seaholm	161	6.2			54
7	Walled Lake Central	179	7.2			56
8	South Lyon East	223	8.1			70
9	South Lyon	247	8.9			80
10	Berkley	254	9.4			57
11	Beverly Hills Groves	278	11.0			86
12	North Farmington	301	11.9			92
13	West Bloomfield	387	13.0			106
14	Walled Lake Western	412	14.0			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	1.3
2	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi	2.0
3	10	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	5.8
4	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.0
5	10	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	7.6
6	9	Eliana Fredrick	Walled Lake Northern	9.3
7	11	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	10.0
8	10	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	10.4
9	11	Mya Tass	Novi	10.8
10	10	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	12.0
11	12	Cora Liu	North Farmington	12.1
12	10	Genevieve Connolly	White Lake Lakeland	14.6
13	12	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
14	11	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	15.7
15	9	Olivia Peterson	Royal Oak	16.1
16	9	Alexa Siegel	Walled Lake Central	16.6
17	9	Sam Horton	White Lake Lakeland	18.4
18	10	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	18.5
19	10	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	19.4
20	10	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	20.3
21	10	Kareena Babu	Novi	22.0
22	10	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	23.1
23	12	Molly Grubb	Birmingham Seaholm	23.5
24	10	Isabelle Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	23.7
25	9	Claire Galas	Novi	26.6
26	9	Mia Maccani	Royal Oak	26.7
27	10	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	27.9
28	11	Carina Tortelli	Novi	28.5
29	12	Joanna Philip	Novi	29.7
30	11	Emma Viggiano	Royal Oak	30.0

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The projections themselves appear pretty dang straight forward. Three teams under 100, well separated from the folks in 4^th and above, projected at nearly 120 points or higher. But projections are thrown out the window in the case of an Oakland County Championship, where both Oxford and Troy come in ahead of Clarkston. Two Thursdays ago, wrongs were righted in the Wolves’ minds, finishing ahead of those two teams in the OK Red Final. I’m sure they’re looking for more of the same, the opposite being true for the Wildcats and Colts.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Rochester	49	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Rochester Adams	78	2.3		95+	19
3	Clarkston	87	2.7		95+	21
4	Oxford	119	4.4			34
5	Troy	125	4.7			38
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	157	6.8			47
7	Lake Orion	159	6.9			51
8	Bloomfield Hills	163	7.2			52
9	Troy Athens	240	9.0			77
10	Utica Ford	291	10.0			90
11	Warren Mott	349	11.0			100
12	Waterford Kettering	394	12.5			113
13	Warren Cousino	394	12.5			112
14	Sterling Heights Stevenson	443	14.1			120
15	Waterford Mott	455	14.9			121
16	Sterling Heights	519	16.0			126

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	1.6
2	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	2.1
3	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester	3.0
4	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.0
5	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	5.6
6	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	7.8
7	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	8.7
8	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	8.8
9	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	10.4
10	10	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	11.1
11	11	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	11.2
12	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	12.4
13	10	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	12.8
14	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams	12.8
15	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	13.7
16	10	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	14.8
17	12	Madie Miller	Troy	17.4
18	10	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	17.7
19	11	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	17.8
20	12	Stephanie Bulat	Rochester	19.7
21	12	Mia Snellgrove	Rochester	21.3
22	10	Paityn Sweet	Clarkston	23.3
23	10	Annie Roraff	Rochester	25.1
24	10	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	25.9
25	11	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	25.9
26	12	Meher Deol	Troy Athens	27.1
27	10	Tessa Kozlowski	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.5
28	10	Lauren Giroux	Troy	30.0
29	12	Lia Toltzman	Troy	31.6
30	12	Allison Murray	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	32.6

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Fraser trying to do it again. Spurred by huge efforts from Kate Molloy and Alice Foley, the Ramblers defied the odds at Macomb County. Those odds have now doubled, but they’re still considered solid underdogs to Macomb Dakota. Listed in the entries for Saturday’s race is Aubrey Rizzo, who missed the County meet and could be a definite help for the Cougar cause. And I’m sure they’ve been stewing over on 21 Mile.

The nerve-racking battle for me is Romeo staying under 16 points. Every single simulation had the Bulldog girls with a perfect score.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Romeo	15	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Utica	73	2.0		95+	16
3	Macomb Dakota	92	3.1		93	23
4	Fraser	108	4.0		7	29
5	Grosse Pointe South	134	4.9			39
6	Utica Eisenhower	186	6.4			60
7	Chippewa Valley	204	7.2			71
8	Port Huron Northern	209	7.6			75
9	L’Anse Creuse North	238	8.8			81
10	Grosse Pointe North	285	10.0			91
11	Anchor Bay	347	11.1			102
12	L’Anse Creuse	373	12.3			107
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	374	12.5			108
14	Warren Woods Tower	436	14.0			118
15	Detroit East English	494	15.0			125

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	1.2
2	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	2.3
3	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	3.8
4	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	4.8
6	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	5.3
7	11	Brooke McFarland	Utica	8.3
8	11	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	8.3
9	12	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
10	11	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	10.5
11	11	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	11.1
12	10	Emma Brown	Utica	11.5
13	12	Sophia Aquino	Utica	12.9
14	10	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	13.4
15	11	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	17.2
16	12	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	17.2
17	12	Sarah Koval	Grosse Pointe South	18.8
18	10	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	19.5
19	10	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	20.5
20	11	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	21.2
21	10	Alice Foley	Fraser	22.2
22	11	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	22.5
23	12	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	22.7
24	12	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	26.5
25	12	Mylene Pham	Macomb Dakota	26.6
26	11	Kate Molloy	Fraser	26.9
27	11	Ryann Smitka	Macomb Dakota	27.2
28	12	Adelina Parikh	Grosse Pointe South	29.3
29	10	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	29.5
30	12	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	30.8

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Grandville vs. the unexpected. Up front, the Livermore tandem is reliable. The OK Red Championship showed that the Bulldogs can go even deeper – all five scorers under 17:05. The team for them to catch is Rockford, who were able to all fall in under 17-flat. A closer gap between the two later in the race may lead to a Grandville upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jenison	39	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Grand Haven	60	2.0		95+	8
3	Rockford	93	3.1		93	23
4	Grandville	111	4.0		7	29
5	Holland West Ottawa	139	5.5			42
6	Zeeland West	142	5.9			43
7	Hudsonville	152	6.5			50
8	Grand Rapids Northview	246	8.1			83
9	Greenville	262	8.9			88
10	Grand Rapids Union	321	10.1			105
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	334	11.1			108
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	343	11.8			112
13	Wyoming	374	13.0			118
14	Muskegon	460	14.0			135

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	1.4
2	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	1.8
3	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	3.7
4	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	4.2
5	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	5.0
6	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	6.8
7	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	6.8
8	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	7.5
9	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	8.5
10	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	10.6
11	11	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	13.0
12	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	13.4
13	11	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	13.5
14	11	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	14.8
15	11	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	15.1
16	10	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	15.8
17	11	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.3
18	10	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	16.9
19	12	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	18.8
20	12	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	20.3
21	12	Dominic Otto	Jenison	21.0
22	12	Nathan Loser	Rockford	22.2
23	9	Chase Sherman	Jenison	25.0
24	11	Kasen Todtz	Grand Haven	27.0
25	11	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	27.2
26	10	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	29.4
27	12	Caden Karcher	Rockford	29.5
28	12	Dylan Pfeffer	Hudsonville	30.7
29	12	Aidan Ohanyan	Hudsonville	30.7
30	11	Michael Dummer	Holland West Ottawa	31.0

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Midland vs. Traverse City West for a qualifying spot. All year, the Chemics have been a welcome surprise, winning early at Northwood and the SVL Championship meet, racing with the big boys at Holly. Traverse City West travels south, hoping to spoil that year-round party. During last week’s Big North Championship, the Titans used the quick Cadillac course to attain PRs from four of their five scorers, nearly knocking off Traverse City Central in the process.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City Central	65	1.2	82	95+	10
2	Okemos	85	2.2	16	93	20
3	Midland	93	2.8		88	21
4	Traverse City West	108	3.8		19	25
5	Grand Ledge	139	5.2			32
6	Saginaw Heritage	152	5.8			40
7	H.H. Dow	184	7.0			51
8	Alpena	223	8.6			58
9	Bay City Western	225	8.7			61
10	Mt. Pleasant	249	9.9			65
11	East Lansing	274	10.9			71
12	Holt	302	11.9			81
13	Lansing Everett	432	13.2			119
14	Bay City Central	437	13.8			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.8
2	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	2.7
3	10	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	4.6
4	11	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	4.9
5	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	5.5
6	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	6.6
7	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	7.6
8	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	7.8
9	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	10.1
10	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	10.6
11	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	12.1
12	11	Logan Bellinger	Midland	12.7
13	12	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	15.0
14	11	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	18.0
15	12	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	18.3
16	12	Lawrence Cubitt	Traverse City Central	18.8
17	11	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	19.0
18	11	Aidan Simrau	Traverse City West	19.8
19	12	Sam Scott	H.H. Dow	20.1
20	12	Leyton Minuth	H.H. Dow	21.1
21	9	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	22.7
22	10	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	23.4
23	12	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	24.9
24	12	Spencer Porritt	Midland	25.8
25	12	Finley Markle	Okemos	26.7
26	10	Simon Shutt	Okemos	27.1
27	11	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	27.3
28	9	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	27.6
29	11	David Fiore	Saginaw Heritage	28.7
30	12	Andy Castro	H.H. Dow	29.2

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Five teams with a real shot of qualifying, three squads with legitimate chances of winning. Samuel Baker’s return has given Kalamazoo Central a major jab in the arm. Filtering for Region 3 teams at both Portage and the SMAC Championship results in a Giant wreck over the competition. Last week, this was all five scorers under 16:15.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Kalamazoo Central	83	1.6	67	88	7
2	East Kentwood	99	2.6	14	78	13
3	Forest Hills Central	99	2.6	13	81	11
4	Portage Central	105	3.4		48	12
5	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	151	5.7		5	30
6	Caledonia	152	5.7			28
7	Lowell	181	7.3			36
8	Forest Hills Northern	183	7.4			35
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	215	8.9			45
10	Byron Center	243	10.0			52
11	Mattawan	274	11.6			63
12	Portage Northern	279	11.8			56
13	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	294	12.6			68

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	1.4
2	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	4.4
3	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	5.3
4	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	6.5
5	10	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
6	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	7.4
7	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	7.9
8	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	8.1
9	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	8.6
10	11	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.4
11	10	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	12.3
12	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	13.0
13	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	13.5
14	12	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	14.7
15	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	15.0
16	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	16.6
17	11	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	18.1
18	10	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	19.4
19	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	19.7
20	12	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	20.3
21	9	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	22.1
22	10	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	22.1
23	10	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	22.8
24	12	Jonah Bills	Battle Creek Lakeview	26.7
25	11	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	27.1
26	11	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	28.1
27	11	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	28.6
28	11	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	28.9
29	11	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	29.6
30	11	Nicolas MoralesSan	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	31.2

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Howell vs. Ann Arbor Skyline. The top-two spots should go to Brighton, a MIS podium contender and Dexter, an unheralded and reliable team. But Howell has been racing aggressively of late, moving up in the regional rankings thanks to prime performances from David DeLand and Alex Weller. On the other hand, Ann Arbor Skyline comes off an SEC Championship where 30 seconds separated their 1^st and 5^th runners. That sorta pack running can come in handy in a pressure-filled environment.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Dexter	100	2.4		95	27
3	Howell	104	2.8		89	26
4	Ann Arbor Skyline	129	4.1		13	41
5	Davison	152	4.9			46
6	Holly	189	6.6			54
7	Grand Blanc	195	6.9			59
8	Hartland	206	7.6			62
9	Flushing	227	9.1			66
10	Fenton	240	9.7			69
11	Lapeer	276	11.0			82
12	Swartz Creek	317	12.1			91
13	Jackson	336	12.9			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.1
2	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	2.2
3	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	4.3
4	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	5.5
5	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.0
6	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	7.2
7	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	7.5
8	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	8.3
9	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	8.6
10	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	8.7
11	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	9.3
12	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	10.1
13	12	Drake Wallace	Howell	15.1
14	12	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	15.6
15	10	Broden Ladd	Holly	15.8
16	11	Mitchell Cory	Brighton	16.8
17	12	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc	20.9
18	12	Luke Meyer	Davison	21.9
19	10	Coen Hill	Dexter	22.0
20	10	Nicholas Yuan	Ann Arbor Skyline	22.6
21	11	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.1
22	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison	24.2
23	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland	24.6
24	10	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.9
25	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly	25.2
26	12	Landon Whitehead	Dexter	28.0
27	9	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	28.0
28	11	Jonny Striler	Swartz Creek	29.3
29	10	Levi Mayer	Davison	29.4
30	9	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	29.9

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems… undramatic? Region 5 has always been a story of Saline + Ann Arbor Pioneer, then someone else. That someone else looks to be Temperance Bedford, who placed 4^th in the final SEC Red jamboree. The Mules provide a few frontrunners and then a pack that can work together in the middle of the race.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	36	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	51	2.0		95+	16
3	Temperance Bedford	84	3.0		95+	33
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	105	4.0			47
5	Monroe	136	5.0			57
6	Allen Park	210	6.4			90
7	Dearborn	218	6.9			89
8	Gibraltar Carlson	249	8.1			102
9	Wyandotte Roosevelt	265	8.8			106
10	Dearborn Edsel Ford	305	10.3			116
11	Dearborn Fordson	320	11.0			110
12	Southgate Anderson	337	11.9			117
13	Ypsilanti Lincoln	369	13.6			121
14	Detroit Cass Tech	369	13.6			124
15	Belleville	389	14.6			123
16	Lincoln Park	460	16.0			129
17	Detroit Martin Luther King	553	17.4			136
18	Taylor	555	17.6			137

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.0
3	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	4.2
4	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	4.9
5	11	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	6.9
6	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	7.0
7	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	8.1
8	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
9	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	8.7
10	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	10.5
11	9	Wesley Rogan	Saline	10.6
12	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	10.7
13	10	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	12.5
14	10	Carlos Basulto	Saline	13.6
15	12	Myles Bray	Monroe	14.9
16	11	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.3
17	11	Quinn Davis	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.0
18	12	Nicholas (Nick) Balla	Temperance Bedford	19.9
19	10	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.9
20	12	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	21.0
21	11	Parker Bomia-Laberdee	Monroe	21.2
22	11	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	22.1
23	10	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	23.0
24	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn	26.4
25	10	Logan Thomas	Temperance Bedford	27.0
26	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	27.3
27	11	Joshua Riggs	Monroe	29.7
28	12	Maceo Colon	Temperance Bedford	30.4
29	12	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	30.5
30	10	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.6

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Canton vs. the question marks. At the end of September, the Cobras were in the MIS podium conversation. A month later and they’ve had some absences from their team. In spite of those missing, they’ve placed 3^rd in Wayne County and 5^th in the KLAA. With or without runners, Plymouth would be right in the conversation for advancing. I bet if I tracked improvement within a season (and between seasons), the Wildcats would be in contention for the most improved in the state. They find themselves here in the top-10 in the state and seemingly still growing.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	26	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Livonia Churchill	70	2.1		95+	5
3	Plymouth	82	3.2		72	9
4	Canton	88	3.7		29	14
5	Salem	118	5.0			24
6	Ann Arbor Huron	162	6.0			44
7	Livonia Stevenson	240	7.3			73
8	Farmington	251	8.0			79
9	Detroit U-D Jesuit	261	8.7			87
10	Detroit Renaissance	318	10.3			103
11	Livonia Franklin	334	11.6			113
12	Westland John Glenn	341	12.0			109
13	Wayne Memorial	341	12.0			111
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	442	14.1			128
15	Ferndale	458	14.9			130
16	Detroit Mumford	510	16.0			138

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.0
2	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	2.2
3	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	3.2
4	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	3.8
5	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	6.6
6	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	6.7
7	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	6.8
8	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	8.1
9	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	10.5
10	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	10.6
11	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	11.9
12	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	12.8
13	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	13.4
14	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	13.7
15	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	10	Jack Hanner	Salem	17.1
17	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	17.5
18	11	Ryan Stojov	Northville	18.2
19	12	Ben Clark	Canton	19.1
20	10	Austin Mercado	Salem	20.5
21	12	Adam Dicken	Canton	20.8
22	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem	22.3
23	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	22.7
24	12	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	23.6
25	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington	23.7
26	12	Ethan Morche	Livonia Churchill	23.9
27	12	Aaron Messing	Livonia Stevenson	28.5
28	12	Teo Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.8
29	11	Max Frentner	Salem	30.7
30	11	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	31.2

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

True proximity in these rivalries. White Lake Lakeland and Highland-Milford are LVC foes. This year’s iteration of the LVC was won by Lakeland, winning both their dual and the championship meet, where the Eagles were able to dot the top-seven with four of their athletes. Close in the mid-season, even closer now, Novi has snuck by Detroit Catholic Central in the projections.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	51	1.4	60	95+	17
2	Highland-Milford	55	1.6	40	95+	18
3	Novi	100	3.5		53	39
4	Detroit Catholic Central	102	3.5		47	34
5	Walled Lake Northern	134	5.0			49
6	Royal Oak	165	5.9			55
7	South Lyon	213	7.1			70
8	South Lyon East	238	8.0			75
9	Beverly Hills Groves	267	8.9			86
10	West Bloomfield	301	10.0			92
11	Birmingham Seaholm	342	11.4			101
12	Brother Rice	347	11.8			97
13	Berkley	369	13.1			104
14	North Farmington	381	13.9			107
15	Walled Lake Western	422	15.2			115
16	Walled Lake Central	443	15.5			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.0
2	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	2.4
3	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	5.2
4	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	5.4
5	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	6.2
6	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi	8.1
7	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	9.9
8	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	9.9
9	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	10.0
10	12	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	11.0
11	11	Soma Sato	Novi	11.6
12	11	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	12.2
13	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	12.5
14	12	Jacob Kosidlo	White Lake Lakeland	13.8
15	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	15.3
16	10	Briggs Warren	Novi	17.2
17	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	18.0
18	12	Michael Nivala	White Lake Lakeland	18.6
19	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	19.3
20	10	Josh Sanchez	Highland-Milford	21.7
21	11	Dylan Doggett	Highland-Milford	22.6
22	11	Isaac German	Novi	24.2
23	11	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	24.9
24	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	25.0
25	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves	26.1
26	12	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	26.1
27	12	Liam Wyman	South Lyon	26.4
28	9	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	27.4
29	12	Evan Kelly	Highland-Milford	28.2
30	12	Jacob Mack	South Lyon East	29.7

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Troy and Rochester going at it for the final spot. Ranked right near each other in the state standings, separated a bit with regard to the region. Troy finds a major advantage by having six boys that could contend for four scoring spots, insurance in the case of a poor race. I wouldn’t discount the Falcons though, as they’re coming off an OAA White victory and they showed the ability in track to show up on regional day.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Clarkston	54	1.1	89	95+	6
2	Oxford	67	1.9	11	95+	15
3	Troy	103	3.1		87	38
4	Rochester	115	3.9		13	37
5	Lake Orion	143	5.1			48
6	Troy Athens	162	5.9			53
7	Utica Ford	229	7.7			72
8	Rochester Adams	234	8.0			77
9	Sterling Heights Stevenson	252	9.6			80
10	Bloomfield Hills	254	9.6			76
11	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	260	10.2			85
12	Warren Cousino	304	12.0			94
13	Waterford Kettering	382	13.0			114
14	Waterford Mott	439	14.1			125
15	Warren Mott	466	14.9			126
16	Auburn Hills Avondale	501	16.2			131
17	Sterling Heights	509	16.9			133

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex McArthur	Oxford	1.7
2	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	2.3
3	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	3.2
4	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.6
5	12	James Cusick	Oxford	4.7
6	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	6.1
7	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	8.5
8	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	8.8
9	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	10.0
10	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	11.1
11	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	11.3
12	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	11.5
13	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	11.5
14	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	11.6
15	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion	15.6
16	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens	16.0
17	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering	18.0
18	12	Akshat Arora	Troy	19.8
19	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.9
20	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford	22.3
21	11	Aaron Hemstreet	Warren Cousino	22.9
22	12	John Lonsway	Sterling Heights Stevenson	23.0
23	12	Jack Tultz	Clarkston	24.5
24	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston	25.1
25	11	Isaac Clark	Troy	26.1
26	12	Braden Cinato	Warren Cousino	28.5
27	10	Zach Shaffer	Utica Ford	28.9
28	9	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	29.5
29	12	Jack Dysarz	Oxford	29.6
30	10	Henry Witt	Troy	30.5
31	12	Austin Xiao	Troy	31.7

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Utica, hoping to repeat the feat from two weeks back. At Eastwood in mid-October, spurred by a dominant top-two, the Chieftains were able to capture the County crown. With two weeks to celebrate and bask in the glory of their accomplishment, they could benefit from the gained confidence. On the other hand, a Romeo or Macomb Dakota may have spent these past two weeks stewing and concocting a strategy to pull an upset.  

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Utica	59	1.4	68	95+	19
2	Macomb Dakota	65	1.9	29	95+	22
3	Romeo	81	2.8		95+	31
4	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.5			60
5	Utica Eisenhower	178	5.3			64
6	Fraser	180	5.3			67
7	Anchor Bay	222	7.7			74
8	Warren DeLaSalle	222	7.9			78
9	Grosse Pointe North	231	8.3			84
10	L’Anse Creuse North	273	10.6			95
11	L’Anse Creuse	287	11.6			93
12	Chippewa Valley	292	12.0			96
13	Port Huron Northern	300	12.8			99
14	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	301	13.0			98
15	Roseville	467	15.0			127
16	Warren Woods Tower	515	16.2			132
17	Detroit East English	527	16.8			134

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	1.8
2	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	1.8
3	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	2.8
4	11	James Brickel	Romeo	6.1
5	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	8.7
6	11	Owen Perry	Romeo	9.1
7	12	Jack Martin	Grosse Pointe South	9.3
8	11	Luke Allen	Romeo	10.9
9	11	Lance Edghill	Fraser	12.2
10	12	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	12.5
11	11	Charlie Curtis	Utica	13.1
12	11	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	13.2
13	12	Jensen McCutcheon	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	13.9
14	11	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	14.5
15	11	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	15.1
16	12	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	15.3
17	11	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	15.8
18	11	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	17.7
19	12	Colden Gray	Utica Eisenhower	19.2
20	9	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	19.8
21	12	Noah Redman	Macomb Dakota	21.3
22	11	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	22.2
23	12	Alex Habarth	L’Anse Creuse	23.0
24	12	Tethyan McKenzie	Grosse Pointe South	23.2
25	12	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	26.3
26	11	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	27.3
27	11	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	28.0
28	11	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	28.9
29	10	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	29.7
30	12	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	29.8

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The venerable Spring Lake girls vs. a late-rising Ludington. The Orioles are a bit faster up front, Annabelle Lowman and Nadia Grierson both showing the capability of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Laker strength is in the middle of their lineup. During last week’s OK Black Championship, Spring Lake was able to place six girls under 20:35.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Spring Lake	79	1.5	57	95+	11
2	Ludington	82	1.7	42	95+	13
3	Cadillac	98	2.9		95+	15
4	Cedar Springs	146	4.8			33
5	Petoskey	153	5.2			39
6	Fruitport	157	5.5			38
7	Fremont	185	7.7			50
8	Gladwin	185	7.7			49
9	Whitehall	197	8.7			55
10	Gaylord	211	9.5			58
11	Sparta	242	10.8			80
12	Howard City Tri-County	312	12.0			91
13	Big Rapids	381	13.0			104
14	Ogemaw Heights	458	14.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	10	Mia May	Sparta	2.6
3	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.2
4	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.3
5	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	5.2
6	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	6.6
7	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	7.3
8	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.6
9	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	8.8
10	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	10.2
11	12	Camille (Cami) Kraai	Whitehall	11.3
12	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	12.5
13	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	14.1
14	10	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	16.7
15	12	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	16.7
16	12	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	17.0
17	12	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	18.1
18	9	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	18.9
19	10	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	20.3
20	11	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	20.7
21	12	Summer Brower	Ludington	22.5
22	12	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	23.9
23	9	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	23.9
24	12	Autumn Brower	Ludington	25.2
25	12	Bethany Zimmerman	Spring Lake	25.8
26	12	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	26.8
27	11	Elisabeth Pauls	Petoskey	30.6
28	9	Briella Kohley	Spring Lake	30.7
29	10	Allison Brandt	Ludington	30.8
30	10	Kendall Nester	Cedar Springs	30.9

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Really nothing? The projected top three squads are all so strong that they *shouldn’t* be challenged. Now, watch there be an upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Zeeland East	27	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	48	2.0		95+	6
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	66	3.0		95+	10
4	Coopersville	113	4.0			21
5	Holland	194	5.9			62
6	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	196	6.1			59
7	Hopkins	198	6.6			67
8	Allendale	222	8.3			81
9	Grand Rapids West Catholic	223	8.6			75
10	Hamilton	234	9.5			82
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	343	11.0			103
12	Grand River Preparatory	377	12.1			108
13	Comstock Park	394	13.2			111
14	Wyoming Lee	404	13.7			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	1.0
2	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	2.6
3	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	3.2
4	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	4.0
5	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	4.4
6	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	6.7
7	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	9.1
9	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	9.8
10	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	10.3
11	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
12	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.8
13	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	14.0
14	9	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	14.3
15	12	Grace Mckinney	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	16.0
16	12	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.4
17	11	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.7
18	9	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	17.3
19	11	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	21.5
20	10	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.2
21	12	Maya VanSolkema	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
22	9	Ava Knot	Holland Christian	23.5
23	9	Sophie Jones	Holland Christian	25.3
24	12	Kambria Moored	Hopkins	27.1
25	11	Allison Breining	Hopkins	27.3
26	10	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.4
27	11	Emily Graves	Zeeland East	28.3
28	12	Ellie Francis	Allendale	28.7
29	SR	Ambria Depoy	Holland	28.8
30	12	Katherine Ptak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	29.9

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can the home course advantage play in the favor of the Sailors? Every year Grand Rapids South Christian seemingly qualifies a team as an underdog. They’re definitely peaking at the right time, eight days off dominating the OK Gold Championship. Forest Hills Eastern will be a tough out, well-coached and battle-tested.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	37	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	East Grand Rapids	66	2.0		95+	7
3	Forest Hills Eastern	98	3.2		83	12
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	111	3.8		17	14
5	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	169	5.8			28
6	Richland Gull Lake	171	6.0			35
7	Plainwell	175	6.2			29
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	241	8.4			64
9	Portland	247	8.7			60
10	Belding	279	10.0			79
11	Battle Creek Pennfield	320	11.3			90
12	Hastings	342	12.2			96
13	Ionia	357	13.1			95
14	Wayland Union	370	13.4			101
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	435	15.0			110

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	1.9
2	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	2.3
3	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	3.6
4	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.0
5	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.2
6	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	6.6
7	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
8	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.5
9	11	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.5
10	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.5
11	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	13.3
12	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	13.8
13	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	15.5
14	10	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	15.8
15	10	Sofia Lewis	GR West Michigan Aviation	16.4
16	10	Caroline Randall	Hastings	18.3
17	12	Marlina Howell	Forest Hills Eastern	18.3
18	11	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	18.5
19	12	Claire Vos	Plainwell	18.8
20	10	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	19.6
21	9	Lydia Visker	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
22	12	Avery Wezensky	Portland	22.4
23	9	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	22.9
24	10	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	23.7
25	9	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	25.4
26	9	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	25.7
27	12	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	27.1
28	11	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	27.4
29	9	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	31.1
30	11	Catherine Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	31.6

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Paw Paw trying to swoop in and claim that third spot. The Red Wolves really let it rip at last week’s Wolverine Conference meet, receiving a season’s best or better from five girls. 4^th place and a performance that if repeated, could pave the way for a trip east to MIS.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Otsego	31	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Sturgis	91	2.3		95+	17
3	St. Joseph	108	3.3		65	25
4	Paw Paw	125	4.0		31	36
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	127	4.5		7	34
6	Marshall	179	6.2			52
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	209	8.0			61
8	Niles	211	8.1			74
9	Three Rivers	216	8.4			68
10	Edwardsburg	231	9.4			78
11	Berrien Springs	278	11.0			86
12	Coldwater	321	12.3			92
13	Dowagiac Union	338	13.2			97
14	Vicksburg	343	13.4			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	2.0
3	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	3.9
4	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	4.7
5	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	6.2
6	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	7.4
8	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	8.3
9	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	8.7
10	11	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	11.9
11	11	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	12.4
12	12	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	13.9
13	10	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	14.4
14	10	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	15.0
15	12	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.8
16	12	Charlie Drew	Niles	19.4
17	10	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.9
18	12	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.1
19	9	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	20.2
20	11	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	20.5
21	9	Gweneth Eby	Coldwater	20.6
22	11	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	21.1
23	9	San Juanita Vargas	Paw Paw	24.0
24	9	Rylee Zumer	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.6
25	12	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.2
26	12	Sadie Ebel	St. Joseph	26.3
27	10	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	27.2
28	11	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	29.0
29	10	Eleanor Park	Sturgis	30.7
30	10	Brynn Copenhaver	Three Rivers	31.7

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Love the varied teams that could make it one more week. Any combination of DeWitt + Owosso, St. Johns, Williamston, Mason, or even a Charlotte could advance. Perhaps we could look to the CAAC Red, whose final jamboree was won by the Redwings. A low stick in Ava Schafer plus power from the 2^nd and 3^rd spots was enough to hold off Williamson, Mason, and Haslett.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	DeWitt	35	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Owosso	123	2.7		84	20
3	St. Johns	134	3.7		48	27
4	Williamston	143	4.6		31	30
5	Mason	147	4.9		21	32
6	Alma	156	5.8			43
7	Charlotte	159	6.3		9	44
8	Haslett	173	7.3			46
9	Parma Western	206	9.0			54
10	Corunna	244	10.8			66
11	Fowlerville	248	10.9			76
12	Eaton Rapids	249	11.1			72
13	Lansing Waverly	433	13.4			112
14	Lansing Eastern	436	13.6			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.0
2	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	2.4
3	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	3.9
4	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	4.3
5	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	5.4
6	12	Joy Evans	Alma	5.5
7	12	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	8.2
8	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	9.0
9	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	11.2
10	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	12.2
11	12	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	14.5
12	12	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	14.9
13	12	Julionna West	Owosso	15.8
14	10	Morgan Allen	Mason	15.9
15	12	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	16.4
16	11	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	17.9
17	11	Maria Beach	Fowlerville	18.6
18	10	Colette Charchut	Haslett	19.0
19	11	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	19.6
20	11	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	20.0
21	12	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	21.5
22	11	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	21.8
23	9	Delilah White	Haslett	22.0
24	10	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	23.3
25	12	Morgan Ashcroft	DeWitt	24.3
26	9	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	29.0
27	9	Ruby Petee	Mason	29.0
28	10	Eliza Milarch	Charlotte	30.0
29	10	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	30.8
30	10	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	31.7

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Bluejay magic vs. the odds. Frankenmuth has been a reliable team all year, placing 2^nd in the TVC Red, Greater Flint, and Saginaw County. A young Shepherd team has been accelerating towards the finish, buoyed by the emergence of Cailyn Baker, winning the JPC yet again.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Goodrich	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Freeland	68	2.0		95+	9
3	Frankenmuth	93	3.1		90	16
4	Shepherd	105	3.9		10	19
5	Flint Powers Catholic	129	5.0			41
6	Imlay City	222	6.4			88
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	230	7.2			87
8	Flint Kearsley	234	7.6			89
9	Birch Run	254	9.1			93
10	Ortonville Brandon	266	10.0			100
11	Essexville-Garber	281	11.3			102
12	Bay City John Glenn	285	11.5			106

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	1.2
2	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.4
3	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.8
4	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	3.9
5	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	5.6
6	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	7.0
7	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	7.5
8	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.0
9	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	9.1
10	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	10.1
11	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	10.7
12	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	12.7
13	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	14.1
14	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	14.6
15	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	14.8
16	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	15.0
17	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	15.8
18	9	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	16.8
19	12	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	19.0
20	9	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	20.5
21	12	Landrey Kuhn	Freeland	20.8
22	9	Ellie Thering	Freeland	22.7
23	10	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	23.1
24	11	Emilee Young	Shepherd	25.4
25	12	Gracie Warner	Shepherd	26.6
26	9	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	27.3
27	9	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	28.6
28	11	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	29.0
29	10	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley	29.4
30	10	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another region with a ton of teams in the mix to qualify and/or win. This is a rarity though – Pinckney has over a 50% chance to qualify, but they’re slotted in the 4^th spot. This what happens when there are four teams ranked between 22^nd and 26^th.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Dearborn Divine Child	83	1.6	64	95+	22
2	Linden	91	2.8	15	67	23
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	91	3.0	6	63	24
4	Pinckney	94	3.3	12	53	26
5	Detroit Country Day	108	4.4		18	37
6	Bloomfield Hills Marian	170	6.9			63
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	173	7.1			69
8	Oak Park	187	7.9			73
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	190	8.2			77
10	Lake Fenton	224	10.0			84
11	Garden City	330	11.0			107
12	Detroit Cody	392	12.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.2
2	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	2.4
3	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.1
4	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	5.0
5	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	5.8
6	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	5.9
7	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	8.3
8	12	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	9.2
9	10	Sidney Shepard	Linden	9.4
10	12	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child	10.2
11	9	Janae Coleman	Oak Park	13.2
12	12	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child	13.8
13	11	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.9
14	12	Tess Scicluna	Dearborn Divine Child	15.5
15	9	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	16.3
16	11	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child	16.7
17	10	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	17.5
18	12	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	18.1
19	9	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	18.3
20	10	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	20.0
21	9	Leah Krzeszewski	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.0
22	9	Molly Roberts	Linden	23.0
23	12	Dayshana Kellogg	Oak Park	23.5
24	10	Claire Dunn	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	23.8
25	12	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.3
26	11	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	27.4
27	11	Catherine Kipila	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.9
28	10	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	30.2
29	12	Ella Schueller	Detroit Country Day	30.4
30	10	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	30.4

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The dead heat between Armada and Croswell-Lexington. The two BWAC teams have met up in the three conference jamborees. Armada captured the first and third ones, Cros-Lex the middle one. The Pioneers will need someone beyond their top-4 to break up the Tiger pack, which is typically overwhelming enough to buy a victory.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Macomb Lutheran North	65	1.3	71	95+	40
2	St. Clair	73	1.7	29	95+	45
3	Croswell-Lexington	105	3.7		45	51
4	Armada	107	3.9		46	56
5	Warren Regina	117	5.0			65
6	Yale	125	5.5		5	71
7	Marysville	157	7.0			83
8	Madison Heights Lamphere	215	8.1			94
9	Richmond	228	8.9			99
10	Detroit University Prep	293	10.0			109
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	350	11.3			117
12	Harper Woods	356	11.7			118
13	Detroit Southeastern Tech	373	13.0			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.0
2	12	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	2.8
3	10	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	3.0
4	12	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	4.7
5	12	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	6.0
6	12	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.2
7	9	Saige Cole	Yale	8.7
8	10	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	11.0
9	12	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	11.7
10	10	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	11.8
11	12	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	12.3
12	10	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	12.5
13	11	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	13.9
14	10	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.8
15	9	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	16.1
16	10	Lillian Bender	Yale	16.9
17	11	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	16.9
18	9	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	17.3
19	11	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	18.7
20	10	Helena Reiff	Armada	19.5
21	10	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
22	12	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
23	12	Addison Stevens	Marysville	21.1
24	12	Eden Brewer	St. Clair	23.2
25	9	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
26	10	Ava Childers	Yale	25.7
27	9	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	28.2
28	9	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	30.0
29	10	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	32.2
30	9	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	32.2

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Gonna be a test of who has the better depth, Carleton Airport or Chelsea. Through four runners, the scores appear fairly even. Chelsea’s depth is rapidly improving, Airport’s is senior-laden and experienced.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Adrian	48	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	85	2.0		95+	18
3	Carleton Airport	112	3.3		71	31
4	Chelsea	121	3.9		29	42
5	Trenton	144	5.7			47
6	Tecumseh	146	5.9			48
7	New Boston Huron	158	6.9			53
8	Milan	168	7.6			57
9	Dundee	188	8.8			70
10	Grosse Ile	227	10.0			85
11	Ypsilanti Community	308	11.0			105
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	389	12.0			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	1.0
2	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	2.4
3	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	2.7
4	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	4.4
5	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	7.1
6	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	8.6
7	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.8
8	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.9
9	SR	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	9.1
10	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.5
11	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	9.9
12	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	10.1
13	9	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	13.4
14	12	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	14.3
15	11	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	15.0
16	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	17.4
17	12	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	17.8
18	9	Allison Ost	Dundee	19.0
19	12	Devyn Dorey	Trenton	19.4
20	9	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	19.7
21	11	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	21.5
22	11	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	23.9
23	10	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	24.2
24	12	Lauren Thompson	Chelsea	24.7
25	11	Brenna Baker	Carleton Airport	28.2
26	10	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	28.2
27	10	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	28.7
28	11	Claire Cousineau	Tecumseh	29.1
29	9	Klair Baker	Adrian	29.3
30	9	Jaelynn Greene	Carleton Airport	30.2