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GIRLS

I mistakenly skipped over Region 13 and instead started on 14 before realizing the error.  But boy am I glad I worked on this one, it is LOADED.  And it’s not just the EGR girls.  Eliminate them and you have to be in the 20:45 range to even think about qualifying.  With them, you’ve gotta break 20.  To be blunt, the team battle will likely be boring.  You have three top-5 teams, and then no one else is ranked.  And of those top-5, East Grand Rapids is clearly in their own league.  I hope they face off against Pioneer at some point this season.

Ranked Teams: East Grand Rapids (1), Lansing Catholic (4), St. Johns (5)

Highest Rated

• Jaden Theis, Lansing Catholic

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• Taryn Chapko, St. Johns

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• Anna Petr, East Grand Rapids

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• Ainsley Workman, East Grand Rapids

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• Margaret Coney, East Grand Rapids

Hard to believe that a girl who’s run multiple 18:3x times isn’t top-3 here, but that’s the reality of this region.  Margaret dropped some serious time to finish her junior year.  Her PR came from the regional race, an 18:34.  More impressively, she was able to go 18:38 at State.  Also, she will kick you down on any homestretch.

• Katie Hessler, East Grand Rapids

Late October, Katie reached down deep and flashed some of her true potential.  Her season had a few great performances, Otsego Bulldog and Bath, but her regional race was her first time under 19:00.  She followed that up with an even better State meet.  All in all, she dropped 52 seconds from her sophomore year, over a minute when adjusting for course.

• Lauren Hunter, Haslett

On the middle school level, Lauren was unbeaten last year.  As we all know, courses run differently.  Different lengths, conditions, competitions.  Lauren was so precise, only one race outside of the 11:50-12:10 range.  She did compete at the Mideast qualifier, running 19:09.  Her track track record was unblemished as well, 2:23/5:19/11:54 (11:35 PR).

Career achievement/improvement

• Faith Schafer, Williamston

Faith hasn’t been a world beater while at Williamston, but her consistency is something to marvel at.  She’s been a state qualifier three times now, all three them from finishes between 10^th and 12^th place.  Last season had her best State performance, where she was 61^st.

Darkhorse

• Lucy Petee, Mason

Lucy has always been a 400/800 star.  She began her career running 60/2:17, she’s now moved to the 58/2:14 realm.  She’s shown some XC ability in the past, breaking 19:00 a few times in 2017.  She’s as good a bet as any to get back there.

BOYS

The boys’ side is similarly stacked.  Not only does one as an individual need to be sub-17 to be in the qualifying conversation, but SIX top-25 teams are present here.  Poor dang Lansing Catholic, Ionia, and Forest Hills Eastern.  There might be some other teams prone to an upset, but the top teams here rely on their pack more than their individuals (even with Evan Bishop).

Ranked Teams: Haslett (2), East Grand Rapids (5), St. Johns (8), Lansing Catholic (15), Ionia (16), Forest Hills Eastern (22)

Highest Rated

• Evan Bishop, East Grand Rapids

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• Ethan Rockburn, Belding

Starting at Shepherd’s Bluejay Invite, Ethan had a steady string of mid-16 races.  Most impressive of which was probably the last one, a 16:23 (20^th) at States.  He’s also your defending regional champ, which obviously will be a tough task to repeat.  It will still take a fight to give that up.  Concentrated more on the 1600m in track, ended up running 4:28.

• Ben Clason, Forest Hills Eastern

Ben would make a good candidate for the massive improvement category.  In most of his freshman races, Ben hovered in the 19:00 range.  By the end of the year, he was able to drop down under 18 at Otsego.  Last season, Ben started in the same time zone but ended in the 16’s.  He had another outstanding race at Otsego, his 16:30 placed 10^th and he was 14^th in the always tough Region 11.  Really showed his mettle in track, going 9:42 in the 3200m.

• Danny Ezzo, Haslett

Danny and his Haslett teammates should be close to interchangeable this season.  He’s their highest returner from States and Greater Lansing.  Greater Lansing was his best race of the season, where he went 16:23 and finished 5^th.

Career achievement/improvement

• Jacob Dennis, St. Johns

Not often I’ll put a junior here, but Jacob made such a dramatic improvement that he warrants mentioning.  He started off his career as a freshman running 20:51 at Spartan.  It was a little into his season this time around, but he ran 17:18 at the same race.  He largely ran around that time for a majority of the season, but made a serious drop at regionals, going 16:35.

Darkhorse

• Josiah Magley, Ionia

Other upcoming sophomores such as Espen Lehnst and Nathan Alford could easily be picked here, this is just the biggest surprise given his XC season.  And it wasn’t much of a surprise, Magley in the high 17’s for a good bit of the year.  Then he turned around and went 4:42/10:04 on the track.  Wouldn’t be shocked if he, along with others, is in the mid-16’s this season.  What a region.

 

 

GIRLS

Some teams may be ranked lower, but benefit from XC scoring. Pewamo-Westphalia is ranked lower than St. Louis, not by much, but should score better in many meets, especially those with larger fields. Their 6^th and 7^th girls (heck, even their 8^th is likely better than all but Hart’s in D3) will contest with the 3^rd runner of many teams. Bailey Droste, Julia Esch may not be All-State, but will be integral in a push for the 2^nd spot at MIS. The same holds true for Ithaca in their clash with Stockbridge. Two top-15 teams battling for that last spot. Ithaca can likely put 6 runners before Stockbridge’s 4^th. Of course, beginning in a few weeks, we will see if that’s true.

Ranked Teams: St. Louis (2), Pewamo-Westphalia (3), Ithaca (10), Stockbridge (13)

Highest Rated

• Lani Bloom, Ithaca

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• Rylee Tolson, Stockbridge

You can’t complain much about a freshman campaign that ends up in an All-State honor. Rylee had a few other great races as well, her 18:45 at regionals stands out the most. I believe she’ll give Bloom quite a race. 2:21/5:02/10:48 shows that she’s not just an XC girl.

• Libby Munderloh, St. Louis

Libby has the potential to be there as well. She boasts similar PRs to Rylee, a 18:42 at Bath. She showed the ability to match that performance often, most importantly an 8^th place (19:16) performance at States. Tolson is ahead here because of her track prowess, although Libby did show hints at her speed, running 62.4/2:24.

• Mikenna Borie, St. Louis

ANOTHER girl with an outstanding freshman year. I don’t think I could do my own laundry as a freshman and these girls are out running their hearts out for 5ks. Like Munderloh, Mikenna showed her strength in a 19:53 at Bath. She topped out at 19:23 and also finished All-State.

Career achievement/improvement

• Caleigh Winters, Potterville

Caleigh’s 2018 season was by far the best of her career. Let’s put it this way: her freshman and sophomore year, she hadn’t finished in the top-15 in her region. Her junior year, she was 12^th in the State. She broke 20:00 four times, the best of those being a 19:43 at Greater Lansing and a 19:55 at MIS.

Darkhorse

• Cailey George, Pewamo-Westphalia

I hadn’t rated jamborees or many league competitions and I threw out anyone with one result from last year. Cailey isn’t listed in my ratings for XC, but I’d expect her to run this year. She was a 2:29/5:40 girl in track and has run mid-20’s her first two years in the sport. Her comeback gives the team some scary stability.
BOYS

I love this absolute war for the third spot.

Also, P-W on top. Them and Shepherd. Every single year.

Ranked Teams: Pewamo-Westphalia (3), St. Louis (11), New Lothrop (18), Leslie (21), Potterville (24)

Highest Rated

• Hayden Germain, Pewamo-Westphalia

Hayden had a real breakthrough at Bath this year, then continued from there. You know it’s gonna be a good season when you PR before you even begin to think about peaking. When late October finally rolled around, Hayden was there. 9^th at Greater Lansing, 16:11 (3^rd here), and then 7^th at MIS. He made a quantum leap in the 800 this spring, running 1:58.5 when his previous best had been over 2:05.

• Ashton Walker, Pewamo-Westphalia

At his absolute best, Ashton is Pewamo’s fastest runner. He ran a lifetime PR at regionals last year, a 15:58. Unfortunately, the next week didn’t go as well, but he was still able to hang on for 14^th place. On the track, he was right there with Hayden and even showed some mile chops, going 4:28. As is, they’re separated by less than a second in these here ratings.

• Zach Wright, Potterville

Potterville makes the leap from D4 to D3 and Zach will be leading that charge. A junior now, his first two years ended in All-State performances. I still have him projected to get there, but it’ll be a bit tougher road. There are some indicators he can hang with the P-W studs, a 16:34 at Carson City, 4:27 on the track.

Career achievement/improvement

• Micah Beauregard, Stockbridge

Micah has put in back to back solid years for Stockbridge. Each of the years, he’s been able to break 17 consistently in races. 2018 didn’t see him hit a PR, but he knocked out a second straight top-20 finish at MIS. He’s more of a mid-distance guy on the track, having gone under 2:00/4:25 in the last two springs. Hopefully those track times pay off on the XC course this fall.

Darkhorse

• Dylan Marr, St. Louis

One thing I really liked about this region are the sheer number of non-seniors. All but one of the projected places between 11-20 are juniors or younger. Higher variability, more chances for breakout performances. Little Dylan ran 5:02/10:52 in track this spring. Last fall, he was 2^nd at Scottie Classic, 5^th at Greater Lansing, and 2^nd at Carson City.

GIRLS

My original rankings at the beginning of summer included Brighton’s Jordyn Libler.  She competed in a few races at the beginning of last year, and thus had an overall rating.  But then no track results and no XC races after mid-September.  My assumption would then be that she’s not running (but my hope, as always, is that she’s running happily and healthily).  That said, Brighton is still a top-15 team without her, and should be the favorite over very good DeWitt and Pinckney squads.  Howell surprisingly grabbed that final spot last year, and they’re in position to do the same, a pack-driven team.  This is a very tough region for individuals, my guess is a girl will have to run under 19:45 to have a chance.

Ranked Teams: Brighton (7), DeWitt (16), Pinckney (19)

Highest Rated

• Vivi Eddings, Pinckney

Vivi stepped up on the big stage to both PR and finish All-State last year.  Her 18:32 was an 8 second personal best and is actually more impressive given the conditions.

• Anna Delgado, East Lansing

Cue up another, “how good is this freshman?” question.  I tend to think Greater Lansing has a reputable course, that’s where Anna ran a 12:02.  DeWitt as well, a 12:04.  She ran similar times on the track, including a 5:36 mile.  Many others in this field have faster track times, but training with high schoolers vs. middle schoolers often leads to lower times.

• Laura O’Brien, Ann Arbor Skyline

Laura was 6^th here last year, running her personal best, a 19:05.  She followed that up with a slightly better race, 19:13 at MIS.  Expect to see her move up quite a bit this year, an 11:12 in track suggests she can break into the 18’s easily if she continues to put in work.

Career achievement/improvement

• Kaitlyn Hynes, DeWitt

Kaitlyn makes it here because of her improvement from her freshman to sophomore season.  She had a solid freshman year, knocking on the 20:00 door, but never breaking it.  She smashed through last year, running 18:54 on this very course in late September.  She didn’t match that time, but ran a series of steady performances, culminating in a 24^th place finish at MIS.

Darkhorse

• Abbie Draheim, East Lansing

So many good candidates here, Draheim has so much potential though.  She’s showed flashes, taking home the wins at Holly, 2017 regionals, running 18:27.  Didn’t complete last season, but then showed us more in track, going 5:05 for the 1600m.

BOYS

You’ll find a similar circumstance for individuals on the boys’ side.  To even have a chance, one will need to be under 16:45, if not 16:30.  Of course it doesn’t help that the boys from Dexter and Brighton will be occupying many of those spots.  Brighton may have the higher overall rating, but Dexter has slightly better depth.  Pinckney and Skyline will be another great battle, I personally hope both place 4 runners in the top 20.  And poor Holt, they’d probably win Region 8.

Ranked Teams: Brighton (1), Dexter (3), Ann Arbor Skyline (11), Pinckney (13), Holt (20)

Highest Rated

• Zachary Stewart, Brighton

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• Jack Spamer, Brighton
• Alex Penski, Holt

Both here.

• Adugna Moritz, Holt
• Nathan Larson, Dexter
• Owen Huard, Dexter

All here.

• Andrew Lane, East Lansing

We’ve seen some steady drops from Andrew the past few years.  His best time came from the East Lansing Invite (I don’t believe I rated that one), a 15:47.  He had another sub-16 performance at Bredeweg and a 4^th place finish here.  He dropped a decent amount of time in his 1600/3200’s as well, notably going from a 9:53 to 9:30.

• Gavin White, Pinckney

Relative to his other races, Gavin struggled a bit at MIS, but don’t let that diminish an otherwise remarkable sophomore campaign.  A few results stand out, a 16:12 at Pete Moss, a 10^th place finish at Coaching Legends, and a 16:16 at this regional (13^th).  He has very similar track times to Lane, having gone 4:27/9:30 this spring.

• Thomas Young, Ann Arbor Skyline

Young and Hobbs Kessler could easily be interchangeable, I have them rated only a second apart.  Thomas’s 2017 had a quick end, having not run after September, he wasn’t able to show us much.  2018 was a different tale, he opened up with a 16:05 at Bath (more than a minute PR), then reliably ran near that time. the rest of the season.  Like White, he had a strong regional race, finishing 10^th.

Career achievement/improvement

• Andrew Etherington, Pinckney

Andrew came out late in his freshman year and even his sophomore year, waited until Coaching Legends to break 20:00.  He finished his sophomore year on a high note and then had a solid track season, going 4:56.  He must have really piled on the miles last summer, because he began the season with a 1:30 PR at Pete Moss, then continued that progression to a 16:30 to end the year, finishing 17^th in this region.

Darkhorse

• Seth Read, Dexter

After countless years of running track, Seth had some great breakthroughs in 2019.  He went from 2:09 to 2:00 and 4:42 to 4:21. One can only imagine a similar drop would have occurred in the 3200m.  It’s not as if Seth is a bad or even average XC runner, he had a few races in the high-16’s last year.  He’s definitely good but looks to take it to another level.  If he can break 16 like he’s capable of, Dexter has a real shot of winning it all.