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GIRLS

My original rankings at the beginning of summer included Brighton’s Jordyn Libler.  She competed in a few races at the beginning of last year, and thus had an overall rating.  But then no track results and no XC races after mid-September.  My assumption would then be that she’s not running (but my hope, as always, is that she’s running happily and healthily).  That said, Brighton is still a top-15 team without her, and should be the favorite over very good DeWitt and Pinckney squads.  Howell surprisingly grabbed that final spot last year, and they’re in position to do the same, a pack-driven team.  This is a very tough region for individuals, my guess is a girl will have to run under 19:45 to have a chance.

Ranked Teams: Brighton (7), DeWitt (16), Pinckney (19)

Highest Rated

• Vivi Eddings, Pinckney

Vivi stepped up on the big stage to both PR and finish All-State last year.  Her 18:32 was an 8 second personal best and is actually more impressive given the conditions.

• Anna Delgado, East Lansing

Cue up another, “how good is this freshman?” question.  I tend to think Greater Lansing has a reputable course, that’s where Anna ran a 12:02.  DeWitt as well, a 12:04.  She ran similar times on the track, including a 5:36 mile.  Many others in this field have faster track times, but training with high schoolers vs. middle schoolers often leads to lower times.

• Laura O’Brien, Ann Arbor Skyline

Laura was 6^th here last year, running her personal best, a 19:05.  She followed that up with a slightly better race, 19:13 at MIS.  Expect to see her move up quite a bit this year, an 11:12 in track suggests she can break into the 18’s easily if she continues to put in work.

Career achievement/improvement

• Kaitlyn Hynes, DeWitt

Kaitlyn makes it here because of her improvement from her freshman to sophomore season.  She had a solid freshman year, knocking on the 20:00 door, but never breaking it.  She smashed through last year, running 18:54 on this very course in late September.  She didn’t match that time, but ran a series of steady performances, culminating in a 24^th place finish at MIS.

Darkhorse

• Abbie Draheim, East Lansing

So many good candidates here, Draheim has so much potential though.  She’s showed flashes, taking home the wins at Holly, 2017 regionals, running 18:27.  Didn’t complete last season, but then showed us more in track, going 5:05 for the 1600m.

BOYS

You’ll find a similar circumstance for individuals on the boys’ side.  To even have a chance, one will need to be under 16:45, if not 16:30.  Of course it doesn’t help that the boys from Dexter and Brighton will be occupying many of those spots.  Brighton may have the higher overall rating, but Dexter has slightly better depth.  Pinckney and Skyline will be another great battle, I personally hope both place 4 runners in the top 20.  And poor Holt, they’d probably win Region 8.

Ranked Teams: Brighton (1), Dexter (3), Ann Arbor Skyline (11), Pinckney (13), Holt (20)

Highest Rated

• Zachary Stewart, Brighton

My profile.  TullyRunners.

• Jack Spamer, Brighton
• Alex Penski, Holt

Both here.

• Adugna Moritz, Holt
• Nathan Larson, Dexter
• Owen Huard, Dexter

All here.

• Andrew Lane, East Lansing

We’ve seen some steady drops from Andrew the past few years.  His best time came from the East Lansing Invite (I don’t believe I rated that one), a 15:47.  He had another sub-16 performance at Bredeweg and a 4^th place finish here.  He dropped a decent amount of time in his 1600/3200’s as well, notably going from a 9:53 to 9:30.

• Gavin White, Pinckney

Relative to his other races, Gavin struggled a bit at MIS, but don’t let that diminish an otherwise remarkable sophomore campaign.  A few results stand out, a 16:12 at Pete Moss, a 10^th place finish at Coaching Legends, and a 16:16 at this regional (13^th).  He has very similar track times to Lane, having gone 4:27/9:30 this spring.

• Thomas Young, Ann Arbor Skyline

Young and Hobbs Kessler could easily be interchangeable, I have them rated only a second apart.  Thomas’s 2017 had a quick end, having not run after September, he wasn’t able to show us much.  2018 was a different tale, he opened up with a 16:05 at Bath (more than a minute PR), then reliably ran near that time. the rest of the season.  Like White, he had a strong regional race, finishing 10^th.

Career achievement/improvement

• Andrew Etherington, Pinckney

Andrew came out late in his freshman year and even his sophomore year, waited until Coaching Legends to break 20:00.  He finished his sophomore year on a high note and then had a solid track season, going 4:56.  He must have really piled on the miles last summer, because he began the season with a 1:30 PR at Pete Moss, then continued that progression to a 16:30 to end the year, finishing 17^th in this region.

Darkhorse

• Seth Read, Dexter

After countless years of running track, Seth had some great breakthroughs in 2019.  He went from 2:09 to 2:00 and 4:42 to 4:21. One can only imagine a similar drop would have occurred in the 3200m.  It’s not as if Seth is a bad or even average XC runner, he had a few races in the high-16’s last year.  He’s definitely good but looks to take it to another level.  If he can break 16 like he’s capable of, Dexter has a real shot of winning it all.

(Not many iconic pictures of DeWitt out there.  They do have a very good girls team, as we’ll find out later.)

GIRLS

I always love seeing regions where it looks like there will be a competition for third place.  Last year, Potterville and Saranac duked it out, Potterville winning out.  Potterville has moved up to Division 3, Saranac is still here, but I’ve got Morrice in that spot this year.  Morrice finished 9^th last year, but it looks as if they’re adding some freshmen.  That third place will likely come down to those freshmen, especially if they can place ahead of Saranac’s 3^rd or 4^th runners.

Ranked Teams: Lansing Christian (3), Fowler (19)

Highest Rated

• Madison Volz, Lansing Christian

Mistakenly thought I had covered Madison in the top 30, but she’s juuust outside of that top 30.  So you’re getting four girls in this section.  She had quite the end to last cross season, PRing in 18:10 at Apples to Apples.  One of the reasons she’s a little underrated is her times at Regionals/States, but the results are there, 1st in her region and 2nd in the State.

• Lexi Kinnas, Lansing Christian

Lexi has had a very good first two years for the Pilgrims.  Two consecutive top-20 finishes at the State meet and two years spending time under 20:00.  A very low variance last year too, in the big meets she hovered around that 20:00 mark in just about every one.

• Ashlyn Kephart, Lansing Christian

Incoming freshman has broken 13:00 all three years in middle school.  Her best result came last October, a 12:44 at Apples to Apples.  I’ve said it a thousand times, hard to project freshmen, but one has to marvel at her consistency.

• Adrianne Rector, Dansville

As a freshman last year, Adrianne was able to show great improvement as the year went on.  She began the year running in the 22-23 min. range, but as October rolled around, progressed down to 20-21.  A few results stand out, such as her top-10 finishes at Larry Steeb, Apples to Apples, and regionals.

Career achievement/improvement

• Hayley Lademann, Morrice

Gotta love a girl who’s qualified in 15^th place the past two years, both by margins of under 5 seconds.  This year, she finally has a team capable of supporting her.  While the PRs haven’t been fruitful, she has finished top-100 at MIS the past two seasons.

Darkhorse

• Olivia Datema, Fowler

Give credit to Olivia, she ran a ton of races last season, 17 are listed online.  She hung in there and by the time regionals came around, she was able to break into the 21’s.  Her track times indicate she may still be on the rise, as she was able to go 6:03/13:17.  Neither are out of this world, but show someone definitely capable of being in the high 20’s or low 21’s on a fair course.

BOYS

Quite surprising the Saranac/Morrice battle is so tight given the rankings.  What likely makes it so is the strength of Morrice’s 2-4, at least relative to others.  Between Dansville and Whitmore Lake, Whitmore Lake will hope for a gap between their 5^th runners, while Dansville will hope their incoming freshmen are the real deal, as they’ve got two who have run sub-12.

Ranked Teams: Saranac (7), Morrice (13)

Highest Rated

• Nathan Lott, Webberville

Nathan was one of the more impressive freshmen in the state last year.  He ran solidly for most of the season, dotting some mid to low 17’s.  The big breakthroughs came in late October, his 16:41 at Class D gave him a 3^rd place finish.  That was followed up by 2^nd here and 27^th at States.  His ability really showed on the track, where a 10:06 3200m was 3^rd at State Finals.

• Grayson Rasmus, Saranac

Grayson had a great freshman season, similar to Lott, even a little bit faster.  In that 2017 campaign, he set his lifetime PR of 16:26 and finishing 21^st in the state.  Last year was a bit tougher, but he still managed a top-5 regional finish.  Signs of life were abundant in track, as he dipped under 10:00 at the Greater Lansing meet and finished 6^th at States in that same event.

• Caleb Rivers, Morrice

At the head of Morrice’s solid pack is Caleb Rivers.  Like Rasmus, he didn’t run as fast as his 2017 freshman season, but he was able to establish a bit more consistency.  After not breaking 18:00 in September, he finished under that line in 4 of 6 races in October/November.  The best performance was probably at States, a 17:36.

Career achievement/improvement

• Clay Rinna, Whitmore Lake

After being above 19:00 during his freshman year, Clay has been in the mid to low 17’s the past two years.  His best time came as a sophomore, a 17:24, but his best regional performance and first time qualifying came last year, where he was 11^th.  He, along with his Whitmore Lake teammates, move down from Division 3 to Division 4 for this go round.

Darkhorse

• Joseph Kadlubowski, Dansville

Joseph isn’t listed on Dansville’s roster yet, but it’s hard to believe that someone who has run three years in their middle school program won’t run in high school.  His past two years, he’s been in that mid-11 to 13 min. range.  His best time comes from last fall, a 11:28 at Apples to Apples.  Also ran a 14:30 4k for the USATF regional, throw that in a converter and it spits out 18:23.  Bottom line, if he runs for Dansville, he’s likely top-12 at least.

(Disregard the BlueJay Invite thing, this is just a cool pic)

GIRLS

Region 30 is stacked in both races.  But you’re not gonna get more competitive than the top 2 teams in a Division duking it out in a regional.  Beal City benefits from a huge youthful infusion.  Sacred Heart is the old guard, hoping to hold onto a regional title that’s been theirs for a while.  I’ve said this before, it’s hard to project how freshmen adjust.  They’re highly variant and I’ve tried to keep expectations conservative.  In the winter, I believe I’ll rate the larger middle school meets (but not post results, just too young of an age to have it publicized) in order to get a better projection.  Long story short, Beal City might be very good.  I’m sure we’ll know by the beginning of October.

Ranked Teams: Beal City (1), Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart (2), Carson City-Crystal (14)

Highest Rated

• Kaylee Locke and Tailor Onstott, Beal City

What was in the water in Beal City around 2004/2005?  Kaylee and Tailor seemingly ran with each other, cruising at the front of many races.  Who is truly better, I’m sure we’ll find out in a few weeks.  We do know that they’re capable of running a quality 5k, evidenced by their 19:20s run at Shepherd’s PROM.

• Desiree McConnell, Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart

Is this the last of the McConnells?  What a family.  Desiree had her best finish at MIS last year, 6^th place (but had been All-State the previous two years).  She’s been top-10 at this region in all three years too.

Career achievement/improvement

• Allyson Stevens, Carson City-Crystal

Allyson has been a model of consistency for Carson City.  In the last three years at regionals, she’s finished 12^th, 12^th, and 11^th.  You don’t see many blowup races either, which is an underrated luxury.

Darkhorse

• Rachal Weber, Beal City

Hard to call last year’s 5^th place regional finish (and 17^th at States) a darkhorse, but let’s not forget Rachal in the midst of those freshmen.  I’m not sure what happened early, but a switch seemingly turned on at Shepherd’s John Bruder Classic, from then on, she ran 10 straight races with a top-10 finish.  Her most impressive mark from track was probably her 5:39, but she showed strength in the 800 and 3200 as well.

BOYS

Thank the heavens that Breckenridge was moved out to the Thumb or this might eclipse Region 34’s girls’ race.  Two intriguing battles here, both for the title and for that third spot.  Carson City had about as good of a track season from their distance kids, so much that I believe they have an outside chance of challenging Breckenridge and East Jordan.  Sacred Heart has a great top three, if they can find two others to step up, they’ll be there as well.  Both Beal City and Montabella can place 4 in the top-20.  If that doesn’t happen, Montabella has a slight edge on the strength of their 3^rd-5^th runners.

Ranked Teams: Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart (3), Carson City-Crystal (4), Beal City (11), Montabella (12)

Highest Rated

• Coleman Clark, Carson City-Crystal

Coleman is your defending regional champ, winning in 16:28.  His main competition would have been Mason Sumner.  They’ll have plenty of battles, including one a week later.  Coleman didn’t finish outside of the top 7 in any race last year.  His best races came at Greater Lansing (16:27, 7^th) and States (16:22, 5^th).  On the track, he was state champion in the 3200 and had multiple sub-9:50 results.

• Reginald Richmond, White Cloud

The team battle isn’t the only strength in this region.  Reginald finished 10^th in the D4 State Finals last November and he’s likely an underdog in his region.  He dropped time late, mainly running in the 17’s throughout September and early October, ending up with two 16:4x times at regionals and States.

• Brock Lynch, Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart

Brock had a similar season to Reginald, but Reginald was a little faster at his peak.  Still, Brock was 5^th here and 20^th at States.  Numerous other accomplishments abound, including 7^th at Class D and 11^th at Portage.  I haven’t mentioned that he’s now only a sophomore.

Career achievement

• Jared Moore, Vestaburg

As a freshman, Jared waited until his very last race to break 20:00.  As a sophomore, that milestone happened in only his second race.  He had a few performances in the 18’s, most notably at Carson City and at this region, where he was able to go 18:19.  More than a 1:30 improvement in a year.

Darkhorse

• Matthew Novak, Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart

Like Lynch, Matthew was able to break 17 late into the season, first dropping under that mark at Class D, then running his personal best, a 16:56 here at regionals.  His State meet didn’t go as well, but his track season did.  Matt’s 9:59 was a solid 47 second improvement from last year, and may be enough to vault him into 2^nd here.