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Regional Previews

An Early Look: Region 10

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Emma Squires and Kendall Schopieray should mutually benefit from one another.  I’ve got them rated a second apart.  Last season saw Squires win 3 of the 4 matchups, but Schopieray bested her at States.  Track seasons were nearly identical, with both running 11:02.  Projecting for XC this year, I have the 9th to 10th grade transition improving at a faster rate than the 10th to 11th grade, so that may be why the numbers have Schopieray slightly ahead.

Both schools have solid programs and culture, and should easily make it another weekend.  Petoskey started last season off strong with an incredible performance at the Charlevoix Mud Run.  The course must have run fast comparative to previous years, as I doubted its validity.  The team backed up their performance with a 3rd place finish at States.  The Northwomen return their entire top 7 and 9 of their top 10.  Their top 5 all set PRs in the longer distance events this spring, Caroline Farley, Ahna Vanderwall, Noel Vanderwall, and Sarah Liederbach all in that 12-minute range for the 3200m.

Susie Huckle from Cadillac ran a MARATHON over at Bayshore (3:30, I believe).  That base will set her up for fall.  Chloie Musta is a girl slated for a huge improvement.  Her 2:18 800 gave her a 9th place finish at States, and it was a 22 second drop from last season.  She also ran a 5:47 on April 18th, but one would believe that would be closer to 5:15 at least if run later in the season.  Her XC best is 20:22, and if she continues on that trajectory, 20 minutes will be a mere afterthought.

Sparta’s success here will likely derive from their 2nd-4th runners and being able to potentially put their 6th in front of Fremont, Whitehall, and Ludington’s 5th.  Samantha Huizen let loose some PRs in track, going from 6:09 > 5:45 and 13:18 > 12:25.  That may put her closer to the top 15.

Hanna Brock ran mostly 800’s in track and she ended up running 2:27, a nearly 10 second improvement from last year.  How that carries over to XC is anyone’s guess, but it sure gives some positive momentum.

Cambrie Smith made some huge leaps last year, breaking 20 for the first time and following that up with a 11:52 in track.

I hope Ruby Strahan can recapture her form from the 2017 season, where she ran 18:40 and then finished 23rd at States.  Her track times suggest that may happen, highlighted by an 11:55 ran in April.

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Sparta is ranked as a top 10 team, but you wouldn’t know it by these projections. Fremont is just that good.  Nathan Walker has already been profiled.  The incredible part of their team is the lack of seniors, a sight rarely seen.  Ben Paige has been in the 16’s his first two years, Conor Somers went 4:40/9:56/16:10 as a freshman.  Even a guy like Joshua Zerfas, who’s likely their 5th runner, has been in the 16’s in 9th/10th grade.

Sparta benefits from that good ol’ pack running.  Projections show around a 30 second gap between their first and fifth runners.  Hayden Cook and Chase Wilson are the stars of the group, both running into the 16:40s, but narrowly missing qualifying for States.  A 10:16 3200m in track leads me to believe Chase Hubert might be in line for an improvement, in this region, that could be top 12.

Matthew Hardesty and Ethan Fuller will be key factors if Big Rapids advances into November.  Their performances rate higher than other 4/5 runners in the teams below them.  Ryan Ososki is their freshman sensation, anytime you break 17 as a freshman, you’re in line to do some things later in your career.

Regional Previews

An Early Look: Region 27

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I’m skipping all around here, trying to roll through each division at an equal rate.  Now that the computer situation is settled, expect these at least every weekday morning, undecided if I want to post on a weekend.

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Blissfield is about one of the younger teams you’re going to find.  Emily Bella, Katie Fischer, Angie Hoover, Sarah Brewer, and Haley Brusseau all head an outstanding freshman class.  These girls won 5 of the 7 middle school meets that are listed.

Dundee will also benefit from some incoming freshman.  Briget Waterstradt and Sydney Curtis both were able to break 14 during last school year.  They probably have a good shot of putting 4 in the top 20, which is incredible because they may not even have a top 10 athlete.  Harley Hughson is another girl that’s shown some improvement and hopefully will continue to do so, she ran 22:46 as a freshman and 21:43 as a sophomore.  She’s run at MIS the past two years, that experience will likely be valuable.

Ann Arbor Greenhills vs. Clinton could be a case where you’re looking at the benefit of a good 6th runner.  Clinton has some fast girls up front, Alissa King who was 3rd at 2018’s regionals and sub-13 in track, and the ever-improving Makayla Fletcher.  Greenhills 5th-7th runners may be able to bust into Clinton’s top 5.  A good candidate for that is Sonya Zacharek, who as a freshman was able to run 22:48.

Mary Bradshaw is the defending regional champ here.  She was unfortunately on the wrong side of All-State last year, though she was able to lower her PR by 10 seconds.  She’s coming off a track season where she was able to run 12:14, which is a good omen for improvement.

Lily Green had one of the biggest drops you’re gonna see in 2018.  Ran 24:18 as a sophomore, 21:16 at regionals (a 1:13 PR at that) to finish 13th.  In track, she dropped a 5:47 1600 which shows potential to continue to reduce time.

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It’s a relatively tight battle for the top spots on the boys side.

Clinton has a great shot of putting 4 in the top 20, an added security blanket.  They’re young, their top 7 fastest times last year were all underclassmen, 6 of those 7 in 10th grade or below.  I have Gabe Nelson as their top guy.  He was able to run 17:32 last year and then 10:38 in track.  Matthew Urbanczyk could also be there, as he broke 5 in the 1600, which is much better than his 18:56 last fall.

Erie Mason loses a top runner in Carter Rose, but they’re bolstered by an incoming freshman in Jackson Ansel.  Jackson was under 12:00 in XC/track, sub-19 at PROM.  His brother, Jacob Ansel, was a young sensation last year, nearly breaking 17.

Ann Arbor Greenhills loses 4 of their top 7.  For a D3 school, they have great numbers, at least 19 on the team in 2018.  That’s more than some Division 1 schools, so credit to them for creating well-stocked culture.  Nathan Koh spent much of his freshman year in the 21-23 minute range, finally broke 19 at the end of the year, and last fall was able to nearly break 18.  He continued that in the spring, with a 5:05 in the 1600.  It’s that kind of progress that keeps you relevant as a program.

Owen Schassberger’s track season will give Ida hope in cracking the top 3.  Following a cross season where he didn’t break 18, he ended up running a 10+ second PR in the 800 and a 20+ second PR in the 1600.  If Brock Booth replicates his regional performance from last year, that gives them even more hope.

Cole Cousino might be cut from the same line of Zach White and Colin Kane.  He was on the cusp of breaking 18 as a freshman.

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An Early Look: Region 1

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Well, I got started with typing up this preview, then my laptop just stopped working.  So here we are, a few hours later, new laptop in tow.

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On the girls side, this is a pretty fair region.  You have one top team, three other good teams, and a few outstanding individuals.

The original version of this post didn’t include Forest Hills Northern.  Not sure where I messed up, but here they are.  What they’ve really got going for them is their 1-5 spread.  Freshman Alli Cornell should really contribute as a front-runner, as she was in the 12’s for much of middle school XC.

Traverse City Central is a steady power in our northwest corner of the state.  Sitting in that gym pre-Bayshore, you can see their dominance across all sports, championship banners abound.  Julia Flynn has already been profiled.  What makes them great is their depth, as is usually the case with top teams.  Even those on that 20 min. bubble seem to improve, examples being Alison Hankins, who dropped her PR from 20:08 to 19:14 and Ellen Gerhard, who dropped hers from 21:01 to 19:48.

Traverse City West’s Hannah Smith should be right in the mix for All-State again this year.  She’s finished 26th and 23rd the past two years.  She didn’t as well in track as past seasons, but even at the level she ran, she should still be near that top 30.  Elliott Smith put together a solid season in middle-distance, going 2:27/5:17, capitalizing on a freshman year where she was able to break 19.

Rockford obviously loses VanderLende, but don’t forget the contributions of Everhart-Deckard.  A darkhorse candidate to break their top 7 might be Hailey Fike.  She dropped nearly 3.5 minutes over the course of last season and ran 5:44 in track.  Other contributors who have shown steady progression include Elizabeth Bennett, Bailey Ewen, and Lexie Allshouse.

If they could only find some depth, GR Ottawa Hills would be right in contention.

Nicole Marco had a massive PR in the 1600 this spring, dropping from 5:24 to 5:08.  Hopefully that will extend into XC, as this would be her first state appearance.

Jocelyn Hendricks narrowly missed out on All-State last year.  No track results that I can find, but if she keeps on the same path, she’ll be making it to MIS for the 3rd straight year.

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On the boys side, it’s a little tighter 2-4.

Cedar Springs would undoubtedly be a contender in Division 2, but they’ve moved up.  They have enough depth and front-running to make it to the top 10, quite possibly higher.  Corey Bowers has already been profiled, I should note that he split 1:54 in a relay at States.  He’s followed by three seniors who should provide some consistency in Gavin Braciak, Dilan Sargent, and Jaydon Moleski.

It really comes down to those 4th-7th runners for teams such as Lowell, Rockford, and Traverse City Central.  I have TCC and Lowell ranked in the top 25, but Rockford’s quality depth may spurt them ahead.  Kyle Sweeney hit 17:16 last fall, then followed that up with a 10:22.  Lowell’s Cole Weston is a similar case, running 17:23 and then 10:23, a rising sophomore as well.

Traverse City Central does have a low stick in Cole Truszkowski.  He’s shown improvement the past three years in the fall, almost breaking 16.  On the track, he was able to get 14th in the 1600 with a 4:21.

In order to make it out as an individual, one will probably have to be around 16:45 for a majority of the season, at least on faster courses.  Many kids that I have into the 20’s here have broken 17 before.  Two sophomores I’d watch for are Klay Grant and Isaac Stone, both able to break into those 10:20’s in track.  Two others that made major leaps are Brett Schlaff, dropping his 3200m PR by 0:38 and Josiah Frazier, a 0:48 drop.

Finally, how does Ottawa Hills acquire this talent?  They have NO distance results in track from anyone other than Juan David Hernandez.  Their XC roster for this fall has one other runner.  Normally, people will improve (yes, there are other ways) by chasing others in their training group.  The guy ran 2:06/4:35/9:59/16:15 as a freshman.  Literally by himself.  Unbelievable stuff.