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Team & Individual Surprises

A few teams surprised me, either entering the rankings when I didn’t anticipate seeing them or being ranked higher than I predicted.  Here’s some of the people that helped them get there:

Colltion Vine, Breckenridge (159.7) – Improved from a 129.6 rating last year.  Ran 19+ at Portage, a fair course and ended the year with a 18:47 at the Scottie Classic.  In Ithaca, on a muddy day where Ransom Allen could only muster a 16:30, goes 18:47.  Another big contributor on this team is Weston Wise, not to mention two freshmen, Mason Sumner and Trent Carter.

Travis Lubbers, GR Covenant Christian (176.4) – Travis had a solid year last year with some inconsistent performances.  Sparta and Allegan tempered expectations.  I had him projected for a 160 (in the 18:00 range), but looks to be exceeding that.  17:41 (177.0) at Saranac, not an easy course by any stretch, his most impressive finish to date.  Also, Caleb Potjer, a 29 point improvement thus far.  This team has potential, much depth.

Espen Lehnst, Haslett (179.1) – I didn’t attempt to project freshmen, but I had seen his middle school times so this isn’t a shocker.  It’s hard not to project out and think what the future holds, but now he’s helping Haslett to a potential top 10 finish.  His 180.1 at Corunna is his best to date.  Interesting to see how much he improves over the course of the season.  Also look into Graham Foster.

Luke Schwartz, Romeo (191.9) – So much to say about Romeo.  They’re obviously a machine.  Graduate an extremely strong senior class and just reload.  I’ve often witnessed a leadership void when a strong class leaves, the current team doesn’t realize the work they’ve put in and coasts the next year.  Early returns (and incoming freshman talent) say otherwise.  So, Luke Schwartz.  17:16 at Cass Benton, the endless uphill course.  73 second improvement from last year.  Made the leap in track (4:37,10:14) and has continued that.

Hillsdale Academy’s newcomers: Makenna Barbury (80.4), Hannah Wilkinson (88.5), Sofia Matsukova-Kratt (75.8) ­- Props to these girls coming out for cross this fall.  I’ve only found results for Makenna, who went 2:26/5:50 as a 9th grader last year.  Very unexpected.  Also should note that I included Megan Roberts in their team total.  She appears to be an 8th grader, so this moves them down to 7th, and moves up Hudson, Pittsford, and Lansing Christian.

Libby Munderloh, St. Louis (151.3) – Libby, along with Mikenna Borie, has catapulted St. Louis into the D3 Top 25.  Jacob Tanner correctly ranked them this summer, I did not.  Good research, Jacob.  Let’s use Amber Gall and Lainey Veenkant as reference points.  At Chippewa Hills, Libby ran 30 seconds slower than Gall and 17 seconds faster than Veenkant.  Amber ran 18:00 last year and Lainey, 18:12.  Easy to imagine similar times for Libby.

McKinzie Winget, Imlay City (100.4) – Another great improvement here.  As she’s a sprinter, really nothing in track spoke to this rating.  Winget did dodge the beehives at Algonac last year to a 21:49 and I think she has sub-21 capability.

Antonia Vackaro, Oxford (116.3) – Oxford has always been the forgotten one of the Lake Orion and Clarkston triumvirate.  Last year they expected to be on that level but fell short, this year their middle of the pack runners have all made leaps.  Vackaro is one of many, improving over a minute from last year’s Golden Grizzly (where many of the top runners on the girls side ran slower).  Oxford has potential for more, I think the Longs will move up as well.

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Team & Individual Rankings – 9/1

We haven’t even had our introduction to cross country weather.  The chill in the air, usually noticeable on some August mornings, has been replaced by this undying, oppressive humidity.  Early season meets occur mid-afternoon or even in the evening, where the temperatures hit their highs for the day.  In spite of the humidity, times have really been dropped.  Jack Wilson, after a less than stellar track season, runs about as good of a time you’ll see at Cass Benton.  Olivia, I mean Jaden Theis, may have just jump-started herself into the national spotlight.  Regardless, I promised an initial ranking on Labor Day weekend, and here we are.

These rankings are based on a team’s top 5 runners, determined by the races they’ve run, weighted towards the nearest date.  These are based on time, not place in a hypothetical meet.

A team may be underrated for a few reasons:

  • Inconsistency.  Some like to judge a person’s ability on their best performance, but I think you have to take all performances into account.  If you run 17:30, 17:00, then 18:45, I believe you have to include the 18:45 in rating.  For all we know, in an important race, that person may run another 18:45.  Straight up, their average time is 17:45, so I’m predicting that next time out.
  • Strong 4th and 5th runner relative to other teams. Team A has ratings of 220, 195, 190, 185, 140.  Team B has ratings of 190, 185, 185, 185, 180.  Team A’s average is 186.   Team B’s average is 185.  Team B wins invitationals, Team A wins dual meets.  Regionals and States are not dual meets.
  • Strong 6th and 7th runners. We know these people allow you to take advantage of a weaker 3rd/4th/5th runner.  They also can have an out of world performance and elevate your team, or provide backup in the case of a dreadful race.  For now, I have the top 5 runners rated.  At some point, where I feel comfortable adding some subjectivity, I’ll factor in these two.

A team may be overrated if:

  • They have a strong lead runner and a relatively weaker 4th/5th runner. The strong lead runner racks up the score, but in a race, their single point isn’t rendered too effective.
  • Weaker 6th and 7th runners. No room for error, lower odds of a quantum leap performance.

A team may not be rated if:

  • They haven’t run yet. Clarkston, Fremont, that’s you.
  • They haven’t posted their results to Athletic.net. Milford, that’s you.
  • I didn’t create a rating for their meet. That’s on me.

As a refresher, the ratings are projected times at MIS.

ratingtable

 

 

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8/20-8/25 Ratings

Below are the ratings for some meets last week along with the team ratings for that meet.

A2 End of Summer Classic
Bert Cebulski
Birch Run Early Bird
Bridgman
Cleverley Friday Night
Early Season Warrior
Harper Creek Optimist
Hesperia Baker Woods
Kent City Long Lake
Kuenner
Laingsburg Early Burg
Michigan Catholic
Mike Jackson Memorial
Orchard View Cardinal
Perry
Pete Moss
Pittsford Early Bird
St. Joseph
Three Rivers Big Hill
USA