Category: 2020 Previews

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 27-3

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Teams

Adrian Madison
Ann Arbor Greenhills
Blissfield
Canton Preparatory
Clinton
Dearborn Advanced Technology
Dearborn Heights Robichaud
Dearborn Heights Star International Academy
Detroit Cristo Rey
Detroit Leadership Academy
Detroit Voyageur Prep
Ecorse
Erie Mason
Hope of Detroit Academy
Ida
Manchester
Monroe St. Mary CC
Riverview Gabriel Richard
Sand Creek
Stockbridge
Taylor Preparatory
Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Stockbridge (8), Clinton (10), Manchester (19), Blissfield (25)

Highest Rated Seniors

Andrew’s junior season showed a leap in both times and big-race capability.  He’d broken into the 18’s during his first two years, but made a significant dent into that level with a 17:26 at the Huron Invite.  Later, at that same Willow course, nabbed a 2nd place finish in the regional, breaking 17:00 in the process.

It’s well known that I’m a fan of those who may not be as talented or take awhile to show their talent.  Nethanel was above 21:00 as a freshman and above 19:00 as a sophomore.  At this regional, he ran his PR (17:43) and placed nearly 50 spots lower than in 2018.

Liam began his XC career as a sophomore, mainly running in the low-20’s, but finishing the year with a sub-19 time.  Given the start, it looked as if his junior season would end similarly.  When October rolled around, he made sure that didn’t happen with quality performances at Hudson Booster (18:10) and Gabriel Richard (18:03).

Career Achievement

Gabe had two breakthrough races last year, both at the championship level.  He very nearly broke 17:00 at the TCC Championships, finishing 2nd.  He was able to bust through that barrier here at regionals, placing 3rd.  That finish wasn’t a surprise, but the time certainly was. 

Anyone Else?

As with Liam Riley, has been a part of the Manchester program for two years.  Also like Liam, had a good race at Gabriel Richard (17:36, his first sub-18).  Doubled that up with a clutch race at this regional, placing 7th, outperforming my projection by 13 spots.

Brock’s incredible range deserves mention.  He definitely can hang with most on the cross course, finishing 20th here the past two years.  If he’s in the mix coming down the stretch, watch out.  His wheels will be unmatched by anyone (10.9/22.2, 2nd place finish in the D2 2019 200m).

I’d be remiss to fail to include a Stockbridge runner here.  They’re a young team that’s capable of having seven guys in the 17’s.  Dalton’s year to year improvement gives hope to their potential.  He ran 18:27 as a freshman on a Stockbridge course that is usually a little quick, as a sophomore he was sub 17:30 on multiple occasions, including a 15th place at the Uncle John’s Regional.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Clinton (15), Stockbridge (20), Blissfield (22)

Highest Rated Seniors

After finishing 27th as a freshman, Alissa has notched two consecutive top-5 finishes at this region.  All three years, she’s been top-10 in the TCC and last year, her first top-10 finish at Lenawee County.

Brianna has had the unfortunate circumstance of finishing 16th at her regionals.  But late in October, she showed some significant drops from previous years.  Low 20:00 races at regionals and GLAC show a girl that will likely be pushing 20:00 this year. 

2019 marked Claire’s first individual qualifier.  She came through in what must’ve been a trying season, to that point it had been markedly slower than 2018.  But she came through with a 41 second PR. 

Career Achievement

Profile.

Mari earned a number of victories last season.  Blissfield EB, LCAA, Keunner, and this Regional.  In terms of time, her regional victory was a bit of a surprise – her first race breaking 20:00.

Anyone Else?

As a freshman, Allie had some pretty notable finishes.  1st place in the 9/10 race at Chelsea, 2nd in the Cascades Conference, and 3rd at this region.  Also nabbed a sub-20 PR at Gabriel Richard.

In 2019, Kaitelyn had significant improvement across many meets.  Greater than a minute at Stockbridge, Hudson Booster, and Greater Lansing.  Reached sub-21 in a 7th place finish at the GLAC Championship.

Progress can occur during a season as well.  Emma’s 27:33 opener at Bert Cebulski was slower than any race she ran in 2018.  Her regional, here at Willow, was faster than any race she ran in 2018.  She placed 15th in that regional race, earning a spot in the State Finals.

2020 Previews

Division 4 State Projections

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Boys

Team Projections

I’ve been thinking of how to visualize these in another way. Especially for these lower division teams, the State Meet represents a different, larger field than normal. To win in these larger fields requires a knowledge of how to run in packs and how to manipulate the pack in order to score the lowest. What I’m trying to do here is show where the packs may be and how the top teams relate to them. This is a very rough version of what I hope to show when the season begins.

You can see here how Saugatuck and Carson City might benefit from being able to place their 5th runner before the major pack between ~18:20-18:35, whereas the other two teams will rely on their 4th or both 4th/5th guys to break into that pack. You see similar groupings in the higher 17’s and around 19:00.

Individual Projections

Here are some common races from the projected top 8:

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Common races between the top 6 non-freshman (which, I guess, includes Miriam Murrell):

Middle school results. Included an equivalent time because the middle school ratings aren’t on the same scale as the high school ratings.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 28-4

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Teams

Alanson-Littlefield
Alba
Bellaire
Boyne Falls
Central Lake
Ellsworth
Fairview
Gaylord St. Mary
Indian River Inland Lakes
Johannesburg-Lewiston
Lincoln-Alcona
Mackinaw City
Onaway
Pellston
Petoskey St. Michael
Rogers City
Wolverine

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Johannesburg-Lewiston (12), Petoskey St. Michael (16)

Highest Rated Seniors

Carlos talent in this sport is undeniable.  Top-10 in the State for each of his three years.  Suffered a knee injury this winter, but is apparently back to his old form.  Also, his family lived in Breckenridge a few years ago.  Can you imagine how dominant that program would be?

Tyler has improved his regional finish in each of his four years (yes, 8th grade) at this level.  In 2018, he narrowly missed out on a MIS trip by finishing 17th.  This past season, he was able to nab a spot, sneaking in at 15th.

In his first race of the year, where most athletes are getting their feet wet and reacquainted, Hammond set a 1:00+ PR.  He continued that precipitous time drop into the 17:30s, resulting in a 10th place regional finish. 

Career Achievement

The St. Michael kids in this preview are largely here because of their tremendous improvement from 2018 to 2019.  Part of the formula I use feels that if one improves from one season to the next, the work ethic will allow that to continue.  Samuel dropped his PR from 19:11 to 17:19 and finished 31st in the State after finishing 29th at his regional in 2018.

Anyone Else?

With many Northern Michigan D4 schools, you’ll see them competing as 8th graders.  Lars was one of those, and he competed admirably, finishing 18th at the 2018 Regionals.  This past season, he was able to qualify (with room to spare) in 12th.  He dropped his PR by 1:00 from his 8th grade year as well.

Marcatan had a coming out party at Portage.  His 17:43 there was his second jaunt under 18:00.  He followed that up with equally impressive performances at Regionals and State.  All in all, about a 2:00 drop from his freshman year.

Incoming freshman had a few performances in the high-12, low-13 range.  3rd place in a competitive race at Central Lake Hot Dog.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Johannesburg-Lewiston (3), Ellsworth (18), Gaylord St. Mary (25)

Highest Rated Seniors

Although her best time from each year has been nearly identical (20:37.8 to 20:37.4), her State finish deserves mention.  32nd at MIS when she had never been below 60th.  Three-time qualifier from this region.

Morgan won this regional in 2017 and 2018, then finished 6th last season.  She’s been All-State twice and has run into the 20’s each and every season. 

Last year was actually Nina’s first year running XC.  She finished it with an 11th place finish at this race (21:23, PR).

Career Achievement

Not often you’ll see a freshman in this spot, but Miriam’s 8th grade year requires recognition.  A sub-20 race at Class D was her best time, but more importantly, she was conference champion, regional champion and 14th in the state. 

Anyone Else?

Natalie had a solid freshman year at Chippewa Hills, learning leadership and consistency from their great program.  She takes that further north to Johannesburg-Lewiston and will be a major boon to their team.  She was a low-20 runner and finished 17th in a competitive Benzie regional.

I’m not sure who’s been coaching the Fairview MS squad, but they’ve developed some talent that will be players very soon here.  Jessie finished last season in the 13:30’s with high finishes to match, 3rd at John Bruder and 4th at Hot Dog.

Maia began her career in 2018 as an 8th grader.  She was a great help to Ellsworth, placing 7th at Regionals and 2nd  at the NLC Championships.  She continued that conference performance.  But she improved her regional finish and time, getting down into the 20’s and top-3 at this region.