Category: 2020 Previews

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 29-4

mixcspeedratings

Teams

Baldwin
Bear Lake-Onekama
Brethren
Buckley
Fife Lake Forest Area
Frankfort
Grand Traverse Academy
Leelanau St. Mary
Leland
Maple City Glen Lake
Mason County Eastern
Mesick
Pentwater
Suttons Bay
The Leelanau School
Walkerville

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Mason County Eastern (7), Bear Lake-Onekama (16), Frankfort (17), Grand Traverse Academy (20), Maple City Glen Lake (24)

Highest Rated Seniors

The past two seasons, Alex has been a force at this regional, finishing 3rd both times.  He’s repeated those outstanding performances at State as well, nabbing All-State both seasons.  This year, he looks to break 17:00 for the first time, narrowly missing that mark each of the past two years.

Going into 2019, it was tough to tell if Grant’s 18:10 at the 2018 Manistee National was an anomaly or not.  Track offered little clue, but his October results spoke to his ability.  8th at Regionals, 27th at State.  That State time (17:19), rates out as his best performance by greater than a minute.

Henry has improved his running in both time and place throughout his three years.  Last season, he vaulted into the top 100 at State for the first time ever, a performance in line with his 17:40’s at Class D and Pete Moss.

Career Achievement

All-Region in both his sophomore and junior years, top-30 at Class D in both years as well.  Last season featured his first forays into the 17’s (after three years of trying) at Class D and a NWC Jamboree here at Benzie.

Anyone Else?

Hunter has snuck under 18:00 each of the past two years.  Twice All-Region and top-100 at State.

Arthur had already been good as a 7th grader (12:11 Northern Michigan), but jumped a level in 2019.  His 11:17 (3000m) at Leelanau St. Mary gapped the field by almost 30 seconds and was surely sub-12 if it were the full 2 miles.

Nate’s freshman year ended in a fury, with a 2nd place finish here.  That 17:08 was his best time, his 17:25 at Class D his best rating.  He notched a few wins as well, both at Pentwater Falcon and Evart.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Leland (22), Grand Traverse Academy (23), Buckley (25)

Highest Rated Seniors

Alexis was running mid-24’s through the heart of her freshman season.  She has come a great way from that, finally breaking into the 19’s at Class D.  She followed that up with a 3rd place regional finish and a 15th place at State, her first All-State honor.

Shelby has been a consistent presence on the medal stand at this Benzie Regional.  Top-5 in each of her three years at the high school level.  Also has been top-20 at Class D and top-100 at State in each season.

As with Shelby, Emma has also been a presence here, All-Region each year.  Last year featured her highest performance at State, where she finished 102nd. 

Career Achievement

Two-time regional champ looks to make it three in a row (and she’ll have some competition).  If her performance in big races (4th at 2019 XC State, 5th in 2019 Track 3200m) is any indication, she’ll be up for the challenge. 

Anyone Else?

Profile.

Petra’s freshman year featured some tremendous improvement.  She began the season with a mid-24 race at Pete Moss (here at Benzie, normally a quicker course), then dropped 3:00+ to a 21:12 on these same grounds.  Even a week later, a 21:15 at State, which in normal conditions might be sub-21.

Even our young middle schoolers can show that improvement.  Olivia had not broken 15:00 over the full 2 mile/3200m distance before last season.  In 2019, she did that at each of her five races at that distance, including a sub-14 performance at Buckley.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 30-4

mixcspeedratings

Teams

Beal City
Big Rapids Crossroads Academy
Breckenridge
Coleman
Hale
Marion
McBain Northern Michigan Christian
Merrill
Montabella
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
St. Helen Charlton Heston Academy
Vestaburg
White Cloud
Whittemore-Prescott

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Breckenridge (4), Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart (6), Beal City (10), Montabella (23)

Highest Rated Seniors

Matthew showed a glimpse of his talent in his sophomore track season, narrowly breaking 10:00 in the 3200m.  Last fall, it took a bit of time, but he was able to capitalize on that fitness, getting into the low 16’s.  Numerous honors were accumulated, including top-10 at Carson City, Portage, John Bruder, Class D, Regionals, and State. 

Following a sophomore campaign where he snuck into the 16’s, Colttion established himself at that level consistently throughout the season.  Even on tougher days at MIS or Portage, he was able to dig deep and give clutch performances.  As a result, Breckenridge came home victorious and Colttion came home with another podium finish.

2019’s Regional was Jared’s first individual qualifier.  The previous year, he had finished 20th, missing out by 0:40.  Quite impressive to close that gap in such a short time period.

Career Achievement

Profile.

Brock has been able to accomplish the rare feat of finishing in the same places at Regional and State each of his first two years.  Great finishes too, 5th and 20th.  Shepherd must be his favorite course as well, setting his season record there twice.

Anyone Else?

Incoming freshman was able to run sub-11:30 in middle school.  His two losses came to what many consider the better MSers in the state: March, Hansen, and Lewis. 

Trent battled a hip issue last summer, but was still able to contribute to Breckenridge’s state title.  Going into his junior year, he’s been in Mason Sumner’s shadow, but if healthy, expect a breakout.

Many a tale has been told of Dave King’s magic, and it appears he’s used it on Matthew.  Three years of improvement and a 20:00 guy as a freshman ended up breaking 18:00 late last year. 

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart (5), Beal City (13)

Highest Rated Seniors

Last year’s Shepherd regional produced Naomi’s best race to date.  Her 21:43 shaved nearly a minute off her personal best and her 10th place finish, the highest at the Regional level.

2019 may not have been Helena’s greatest season ever, but she has a trophy case worth of success to fall back on.  Her freshman and sophomore years contained All-State finishes

In each of the last three years, Makayla has shown up at Regionals with one of her better races of the year.  And she’s finished 18th in three consecutive years.  Perhaps this will be the breakthrough.

Career Achievement

Rachal has twice been an All-Stater and twice top-5 at Regionals.  Last October featured her first jaunt into the 19’s, most impressively a 19:54 at MIS.

Anyone Else?

Riley has definitely embraced the work ethic necessary to compete in this sport.  Over this spring and summer, she’s been putting in as many miles as any.  We see evidence of those miles in her time drop from her freshman to sophomore year.  She finished the season with a minute (if not more) improvement, a major impetus in her All-State finish.

Tailor was a sensational 8th grader who didn’t see as much success last year.  The talent is there, having run 19:20 at the 2018 PROM.  She has been keeping up with the top girls this summer, and if she’s able to touch that potential, Beal City enters a new dimension.

Three years in Breckenridge’s MS program gives hope that she’ll adjust to the 5k distance.  Each year, she’s brought her best performance to the Scottie Classic, running in the 13:00’s in all years.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 31-4

mixcspeedratings

Teams

Byron Center Charter
Fruitport Calvary Christian
Gobles
Holland Calvary Christian
Holton
Libertas Christian
Martin
Muskegon Catholic Central
New Buffalo
Saugatuck
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
Three Oaks River Valley
West Michigan Academy of Environmental Science
Tri-Unity Christian

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Saugatuck (1), The Potter’s House (14), Libertas Christian (22)

Highest Rated Seniors

Very likely the biggest darkhorse in Division 4 this season.  Nik’s career success is nothing to scoff at.  He’s been All-State all three years, with a 3rd place finish amongst those.

Carsen experienced a major breakthrough at 2018 Regionals (17:15, a 35 sec. PR), then carried that into 2019.  His 17:26 at MIS led to his best finish yet, 32nd, and showed a progression that puts him in the All-State discussion.

Andrew’s championship races were almost identical to Carsen.  6th at Regionals, 33rd at States.  As with many Potter’s House runners, his junior year was his first year running (or first year that I can find results). 

Career Achievement

Max’s first two years at Saugatuck are as good as any you’ll find.  Twice All-State and All-Region (winning it this year).  Had two outstanding performances at Holly and Portage last year, along with a 4:30 1600m PR this winter.

Nile made tremendous progress between seasons (both in the winter and summer).  After finishing his freshman year with an 18:34 PR and 139th place finish at State, he turned in a sophomore season featuring sub-17 and All-State. 

Anyone Else?

There were some serious time drops for Michael from his 10th to 11th grade year.  He finished the year with more than a 1:15 overall PR, but even greater was his improvement at Regionals (19:23, 24th to 17:51, 9th)

Even greater drops occurred for Jonathan last season.  After not breaking 21 as a freshman, Jonathan was able to get into the 18’s to finish the year.  That wasn’t enough to qualify for MIS, but with his year to year track record, he has a great shot of meeting that goal.

Adam ran his best in early October at Portage, then struggled late.  But in January, a 4:48 indoors shows that was likely just a blip.  He will be counted on to hold off the other Division 4 contenders.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Saugatuck (9), Libertas Christian (21)

Highest Rated Seniors

Jillian is a sprinter by trade (27.6/62.5), but not bad at this cross country thing either.  Consistently a 21:00 girl last year, especially into the championship season.  Placed 14th on a tough track at Centreville last year.

Esther’s junior year was her initial foray into this sport.  She started slow, but showed quick progress, eventually getting down to the mid-21’s. 

One of the few Holton girls that are running, Lily’s perseverance is to be admired.  3 straight State Meet qualifiers for this girl.

Career Achievement

Turned in an incredible regional performance last year, knocking more than a minute off her previous best.  My projections had her in the top 15, but not in the 21:00 range.  Experiences such as those can set up well for important, pressure-filled races down the line.

Anyone Else?

Allison was one of the rare 8th graders able to compete at the HS level last year.  And when she competed, she competed.  Two low-21 performances, an All-Region and top-50 finish at State.

Maya also had the chance to compete at the 5k level, albeit in the open race after regionals.  And showed that she’ll be a serious contributor this year, running 20:33.

Ceci turned in two results last year that speak to her potential.  She topped the field at the Berrien County Meet, finishing in 12:28 and finished 14th at Portage with a 9:59 (2500m).