Uncategorized – Page 12 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.

With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

The boys’ side is a bit simpler, the girls’ a little more complex. All year, the Cedar Springs boys have been the class of the region. They’re deep, with a total of ten RedHawks busting through into the 17’s or below. At a tough day over at the BNC Championship, Petoskey showed it has the quality of runners capable of being a bit ahead of the groupings here. Whitehall and Spring Lake seem to be the ones chasing. Whitehall, led by Bobby Jazwinski and followed by Rex Pumford/Hunter Parsons, is exceptionally strong up front. Spring Lake is a bit more even across the board. We saw this play out at Portage, where the Lakers gained 100+ points on the Vikings with their 3^rd through 5^th man. With a huge caveat, of course, no Parsons for Whitehall (he’s been back).

A tad more complexity for the girls, three teams in the running for two spots. Clare takes the trek over from mid-Michigan and also Division 3. They’re the ones on a roll, snapping a decades long JPC streak held by Shepherd, six Pioneers sub-21 on the quick Shepherd course.

Despite 45 min. separating the two schools, Cedar Springs and Fremont have not faced one another. But that’s why we do these ratings – to give our best effort at these scenarios! This isn’t a perfect tool of comparison, but the two squads have the highest top-five averages at a single meet. For Fremont, it was early in the year at home in the WMC Mega, five Packers placing in the top-13. The RedHawks had similar success in a friendly environment, two girls sub-20 and all sub-22 at their home invite. Benzie will be the home for these two plus Clare, and the projections believe that Cedar Springs’ edge lies in the RedHawk top three, just enough of an advantage to be a slight favorite.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cadillac	63	1.2	80	95+
2	Spring Lake	71	1.8	20	95+
3	Cedar Springs	114	3.7		45
4	Clare	119	4.1		33
5	Fremont	121	4.2		22
6	Fruitport	171	6.3
7	Gaylord	192	7.5
8	Ludington	193	7.5
9	Gladwin	228	9.4
10	Petoskey	229	9.6
11	Howard City Tri-County	254	10.7
12	Whitehall	346	12.2
13	Big Rapids	362	12.9
14	Muskegon Oakridge	397	13.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cedar Springs	86	1.5	64	95+
2	Petoskey	97	2.0	31	95+
3	Whitehall	121	3.4		54
4	Spring Lake	123	3.5		49
5	Howard City Tri-County	152	5.2
6	Fremont	189	7.1
7	Gladwin	198	7.5
8	Clare	202	7.5
9	Ludington	227	9.2
10	Muskegon Oakridge	232	9.4
11	Cadillac	253	10.7
12	Gaylord	272	11.9
13	Big Rapids	281	12.4
14	Fruitport	329	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	9	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	2.8
3	11	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.3
4	12	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.9
5	11	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	5.5
6	12	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	5.5
7	12	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.8
8	11	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	8.7
9	9	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	10.1
10	11	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	10.9
11	10	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	13.1
12	10	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	14.4
13	11	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	14.7
14	10	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	15.0
15	10	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	15.1
16	12	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	15.9
17	9	Myah Breuker	Fremont	16.6
18	11	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	18.8
19	9	Alison Villa-Bilton	Clare	19.2
20	9	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	21.6
21	9	Matia Battjes	Spring Lake	22.7
22	11	Zoe German	Fruitport	23.5
23	12	Joelle Patten	Fremont	23.8
24	12	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	26.2
25	11	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	27.4
26	10	Vivian O’Callaghan	Gladwin	28.0
27	11	Lauren Leis	Clare	30.8
28	9	Natalie Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
29	9	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	31.1
30	12	Anna Pake	Howard City Tri-County	31.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	4.2
3	11	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	4.6
4	12	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	5.8
5	12	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	5.8
6	11	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	6.4
7	11	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	9.5
8	10	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	9.9
9	12	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	12.7
10	11	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	14.4
11	11	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	14.7
12	12	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	15.1
13	10	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	15.1
14	11	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	15.7
15	11	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	18.2
16	9	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	20.2
17	12	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	20.8
18	11	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	22.2
19	11	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	22.7
20	12	Rocket Wilson	Howard City Tri-County	23.3
21	10	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	23.4
22	11	Connor Schmidt	Clare	25.5
23	12	Caleb Lamblin	Gaylord	25.5
24	11	Mossen Green	Fremont	25.8
25	9	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	26.6
26	10	Tate Smith	Fremont	26.9
27	12	Simon Licata	Petoskey	28.5
28	10	Kelan Monreal	Howard City Tri-County	30.1
29	12	Clayton Peacock	Clare	30.4
30	10	Gabe Piach	Gladwin	33.0

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The third spot for both genders. Tiny gaps projected between the Sparta boys and their foes from Grand Rapids Catholic Central, an equal difference thought to be found in the sparring match of the Hudsonville Unity Christian and Holland girls.

For Holland, their final five races have all featured Unity Christian as a counterpart. The first four all ended in the same result – a loss, typically by a single spot in the standings. Smaller fields, bigger fields, conference, invitationals, it didn’t make a difference as the Crusaders were able to come in clutch down the stretch of scorers, their 4^th/5^th girls commonly coming in a minute before the Dutch. At the OK Black Championship, the results flipped, Holland coming in ahead of HUC. Holland was able to match the Crusaders at the four spot, lessening the advantage gained in earlier meets.

Whereas the two above are well familiar with one another, Sparta and Grand Rapids Catholic Central haven’t seen one another. They share similar features and different dynamics. Mitchell Dunlap has been a consistent low stick for the Cougars. Owen Metzger and Carson Wood bring an experienced two-headed force up front for the Spartans. Each squad has a bevy of kids in the mid-18 range. The projections show that the racing bubble could be concentrated in that mid-18 area, whichever depth combination has the better day has a great chance of advancing.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Coopersville	66	2.0		95+
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	88	3.3		67
4	Holland	95	3.6		33
5	Allendale	147	5.0
6	Sparta	213	6.9
7	Hamilton	219	7.2
8	Hopkins	223	7.3
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	251	9.0
10	Grand Rapids West Catholic	266	9.7
11	South Haven	313	11.2
12	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	330	12.2
13	Allegan	334	12.5
14	Wyoming Lee	425	14.4
15	Comstock Park	432	14.7

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	52	1.0	95+	95+
2	Allendale	66	2.0		95+
3	Sparta	116	3.5		65
4	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	122	4.0		26
5	Coopersville	145	5.5
6	Holland	147	5.8		7
7	Hudsonville Unity Christian	162	6.7
8	Hopkins	185	7.6
9	Allegan	246	9.0
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	300	10.4
11	South Haven	314	11.0
12	Grand Rapids West Catholic	331	11.7
13	Hamilton	361	12.8
14	Wyoming Lee	411	14.2
15	Comstock Park	422	14.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.3
2	11	Johanna Mulder	Holland	3.1
3	10	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	3.4
4	11	Mia May	Sparta	3.7
5	12	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	4.6
6	11	Olivia Weiss	Holland	6.1
7	11	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	7.1
8	10	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	9.1
9	11	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	10.2
10	12	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
11	10	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	10.5
12	11	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	12.1
13	9	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	12.4
14	11	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.9
15	11	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	15.0
16	12	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	19.5
17	12	Lauryn Byker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	20.3
18	12	Katelynn Boyd	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.2
19	10	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	21.4
20	11	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
21	12	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	12	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	23.2
23	9	Megyn Allers	Coopersville	24.5
24	11	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.4
25	9	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	25.5
26	9	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	26.8
27	10	Ellery Rietema	Hamilton	27.5
28	10	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.4
29	11	Riley DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	33.3
30	9	Mia Hill	Allendale	33.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mason Hill	Allendale	1.6
2	11	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	2.3
3	12	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	2.7
4	12	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	3.8
5	10	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
6	9	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	7.7
7	12	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	7.9
8	12	Owen Metzger	Sparta	8.5
9	12	Carson Wood	Sparta	10.1
10	11	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	12.4
11	10	Macen White	Holland Christian	12.4
12	10	Kash Moored	Hopkins	12.5
13	10	Caelen Gray	Holland	12.7
14	12	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.0
15	9	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	14.0
16	11	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	14.2
17	9	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	15.8
18	12	Will Johnson	Holland Christian	17.0
19	11	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	20.2
20	12	Grant Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.6
21	10	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	21.8
22	10	Anthony Rushmore	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	22.9
23	9	Reuben Riemersma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
24	11	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	27.2
25	10	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	27.6
26	11	Owen VanDyke	Allendale	28.1
27	11	Rian Powers	Holland	28.6
28	10	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	29.4
29	11	Joe Janesak	Sparta	29.9
30	12	Evan Keller	Coopersville	30.4

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Which one of the top-ranked girls’ teams will unfortunately have to stay home? Just like the Traverse City area D4 mecca, the Grand Rapids area is ripe with excellent D2 squads. They’re greatly concentrated here, the League Week Rankings listing:

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#4 Grand Rapids South Christian
#9 East Grand Rapids
#12 Forest Hills Eastern

As of now, it is appearing that FHE is on the outside looking in. However, not as if there’s zero hope. At Portage, if one filters for Region 12 teams, the Hawks were only three points behind East Grand Rapids, a great advantage coming at the 5^th spot. That wasn’t even the Hawks’ best performance of the year. A week prior at Allendale, the entire FHE scoring lineup was sub-21. On the other hand, East Grand Rapids can look to the past for confidence, as the Pioneers ran up a good margin on the Hawks at the OK White Championship.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	East Grand Rapids	87	3.2		81
4	Forest Hills Eastern	102	3.8		19
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	176	5.8
6	Ionia	185	6.5
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	187	6.5
8	Wayland Union	197	7.3
9	Hastings	256	9.3
10	Battle Creek Pennfield	269	9.9
11	Portland	292	10.9
12	Grand River Preparatory	363	12.0
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	395	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	East Grand Rapids	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	Forest Hills Eastern	86	3.0		95+
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	115	4.0
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	155	5.1
6	Portland	183	6.0
7	Grand River Preparatory	214	7.3
8	Wayland Union	232	8.6
9	Ionia	237	8.9
10	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	240	9.2
11	Lake Odessa Lakewood	299	11.0
12	Hastings	335	12.0
13	Battle Creek Pennfield	368	12.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caroline Randall	Hastings	2.1
2	12	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	3.6
3	12	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.4
4	10	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	4.4
5	10	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	5.0
6	12	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	6.7
7	11	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	7.5
8	11	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	8.3
9	9	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.8
10	12	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	11.1
11	12	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.4
12	11	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	12.5
13	10	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.0
14	11	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	14.2
15	10	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.1
16	10	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	10	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	17.2
18	9	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	17.5
19	10	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
20	9	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	20.7
21	12	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	21.3
22	9	Madison Bumhoffer	Wayland Union	23.4
23	9	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.9
24	11	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	24.8
25	9	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.6
26	11	Iris Zylstra	East Grand Rapids	26.1
27	11	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.1
28	9	Jovie Overkamp	Ionia	27.7
29	9	Faith Antonini	Forest Hills Eastern	28.5
30	10	Ava Benedict	Ionia	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	1.3
2	10	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	2.5
3	12	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	4.5
4	12	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	5.8
5	12	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	6.5
6	10	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	7.1
7	11	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	7.3
8	12	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	8.1
9	12	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	11.6
10	11	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	12.0
11	12	Sam Hillary	East Grand Rapids	12.8
12	10	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.9
13	12	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	14.4
14	12	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	15.4
15	10	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	16.9
16	12	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	17.7
17	11	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	17.8
18	10	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	17.9
19	11	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	18.3
20	11	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	20.6
21	10	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	20.7
22	11	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	20.9
23	9	Seth Sytsma	Grand Rapids Christian	23.3
24	12	Elijah Lipscomb	Grand River Preparatory	24.5
25	9	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	24.6
26	11	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.5
27	12	Ethan Manning	Wayland Union	25.6
28	12	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	28.4
29	12	Owen Moore	Portland	28.8
30	12	Jaxxon Thelen	Ionia	28.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

The many boys’ teams that can advance. Otsego is the biggest lock of them all, winning the Wolverine Conference over many of these squads. Three Rivers had a bit of early success, both at Big Hill and Under the Lights, rolling to some of the higher top-five averages of the chase pack. At the Wolverine Conference Final, the Wildcats still held a position ahead of Edwardsburg, with the Eddies right there through four runners. Over at the SMAC Championship, Richland Gull Lake packed up their 3^rd thru 5^th boys, 17:27 to 17:36 to finish 5^th in the D1-centric field.

But one race may be the greatest preview – Portage. The conditions couldn’t be more drastic. Just look outside your window this week and compare against the overbearing heat of that afternoon. A majority of Region 13’s teams were present and the results defied the projections, St. Joseph and Vicksburg pulling ahead when filtering for this region’s competition. Perhaps all the math is wrong.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	106	2.2		95+
3	Richland Gull Lake	132	3.4		68
4	Plainwell	153	4.7		13
5	Sturgis	153	4.9		17
6	Stevensville Lakeshore	156	4.9		5
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	212	7.5
8	Edwardsburg	223	8.1
9	Marshall	247	9.4
10	Niles	264	10.3
11	Vicksburg	279	11.1
12	Paw Paw	290	11.9
13	Three Rivers	291	11.8
14	Berrien Springs	352	14.3
15	Coldwater	356	14.5

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	93	1.2	81	95+
2	Richland Gull Lake	120	2.9	10	68
3	Three Rivers	125	3.3	9	60
4	Edwardsburg	130	3.6		48
5	Plainwell	143	4.6		19
6	Vicksburg	164	6.4
7	St. Joseph	172	7.3
8	Paw Paw	172	7.3
9	Battle Creek Harper Creek	202	8.9
10	Sturgis	220	9.8
11	Marshall	248	10.8
12	Coldwater	289	12.1
13	Berrien Springs	326	13.2
14	Niles	341	13.6
15	Dowagiac Union	484	15.5
16	Stevensville Lakeshore	485	15.5

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	2.3
3	9	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	4.2
4	10	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	5.2
5	9	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	5.6
6	9	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.8
7	11	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.7
8	9	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.6
9	12	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.8
10	10	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	9.9
11	12	Georgia Babcock	Edwardsburg	11.0
12	12	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.7
13	9	Lulu Park	Sturgis	14.1
14	10	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	14.5
15	12	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	15.1
16	9	Taylee Fox	Otsego	16.4
17	9	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	16.7
18	9	Fiona Ryan	Plainwell	18.9
19	9	Kalynn Young	Richland Gull Lake	21.2
20	10	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	21.9
21	12	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	22.9
22	11	Lillie Kerr	Three Rivers	23.9
23	10	Gwen Eby	Coldwater	26.1
24	10	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	27.1
25	9	Lena Coulston	Niles	27.9
26	12	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	28.0
27	10	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	28.1
28	11	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	30.9
29	11	Abbie Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	32.4
30	11	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	33.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	2.8
2	11	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
3	12	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	6.2
4	12	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	7.0
5	11	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	7.0
6	11	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.1
7	12	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.0
8	11	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	9.5
9	9	Jackson Pant	Richland Gull Lake	9.5
10	11	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	12.8
11	11	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	13.0
12	12	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	15.5
13	12	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	15.6
14	10	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	16.8
15	12	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	17.3
16	11	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	17.5
17	10	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	17.7
18	10	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	17.9
19	12	Jonah Zietlow	Three Rivers	18.0
20	12	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	19.1
21	12	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	21.1
22	12	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	22.0
23	12	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	22.5
24	9	Ryan Long	Otsego	22.6
25	9	George Whitaker	Otsego	24.6
26	10	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	26.1
27	12	Finn Tauren	Richland Gull Lake	27.7
28	9	John Brickley	Niles	28.1
29	10	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	29.0
30	11	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	30.2

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The Capital Area teams do a wondrous job of making sure their competition stays close to home. St. Johns, Williamston, and Haslett all have gotten after one another multiple times in the CAAC Red. Charlotte has competed against them all at Greater Lansing, along with the multitudes of smaller meets across the area.

Both the area and league championships give a bit of a preview of what’s to come. For league action, Haslett was able to overwhelm both St. Johns and Williamston with its depth. The Vikings’ 5^th girl, Izzy Brown, was able to slip ahead of Williamston’s 4^th and had a nearly 2 min. gap on the Redwings’ 5^th.

A few days earlier at Greater Lansing, St. Johns was able to derive an advantage on Ava Schafer being a low-stick, her 3 points driving a 20+ point wedge on the other three squads. Even in the large championship field, these four teams placed one after another in the standings. Friday, they’ll likely do the same, in any kind of order.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	DeWitt	56	1.0	95+	95+
2	Charlotte	109	2.9		75
3	Haslett	111	3.1		64
4	St. Johns	116	3.6		44
5	Williamston	124	4.6		17
6	Parma Western	155	6.3
7	Fowlerville	160	6.6
8	Alma	215	8.4
9	Owosso	217	8.6
10	Corunna	284	10.5
11	Eaton Rapids	288	10.6
12	Jackson Northwest	328	12.4
13	Michigan Center	333	12.6
14	Lansing Sexton	414	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Alma	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Parma Western	61	2.0		95+
3	DeWitt	84	3.0		95+
4	Williamston	126	4.5
5	Owosso	131	4.9
6	Haslett	143	5.7
7	Corunna	180	7.2
8	St. Johns	202	8.0
9	Fowlerville	227	8.8
10	Jackson Northwest	307	10.2
11	Charlotte	325	10.8
12	Michigan Center	404	12.3
13	Lansing Eastern	414	13.1
14	Lansing Sexton	423	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	10	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	2.1
3	12	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	7.4
5	10	Abby Crandell	Owosso	7.4
6	10	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	7.5
7	11	Colette Charchut	Haslett	7.7
8	9	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	8.2
9	10	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	9.7
10	11	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.2
11	9	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	11.9
12	12	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	12.2
13	11	Natalie Kuhl	Parma Western	12.4
14	12	Maddy Takagishi	DeWitt	15.7
15	9	Dakota Budd	Haslett	15.9
16	12	Emily Agnew	DeWitt	16.3
17	10	Grace Mingerink	DeWitt	17.2
18	10	Emma Cook	DeWitt	18.9
19	12	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	19.0
20	12	Andie Wildern	Charlotte	19.5
21	10	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	19.5
22	11	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	22.2
23	12	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	23.4
24	12	Abby Russell	Haslett	24.7
25	9	Kendall Dorey	Charlotte	25.1
26	12	Kate Church	Haslett	27.6
27	12	Anna Johnson	Alma	29.6
28	12	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	29.7
29	10	Reggie Cooke	Williamston	30.1
30	11	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	1.7
2	12	Thomas Larson	Alma	1.8
3	12	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	3.1
4	10	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	6.0
5	12	Aiden Marple	DeWitt	6.4
6	9	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	6.7
7	11	Ryan Good	Parma Western	9.8
8	12	Luca Lebron	Alma	10.3
9	12	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt	10.4
10	10	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	10.9
11	10	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.9
12	10	Teddy Weber	Williamston	12.5
13	12	Raymond Herek	Williamston	14.2
14	12	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	15.3
15	11	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	15.6
16	9	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	16.6
17	9	Nico Lebron	Alma	17.0
18	9	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	18.7
19	12	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	20.1
20	11	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	20.6
21	9	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	20.9
22	11	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	21.6
23	11	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	25.1
24	10	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	27.3
25	11	Kai Miller	Owosso	27.4
26	10	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	27.9
27	12	Payton Chandler	Corunna	28.2
28	11	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	28.6
29	10	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	29.2
30	10	Christian LeConte	Owosso	29.6

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

Two spots for three girls teams.

Freeland and Frankenmuth, two league and county foes, alongside a rising Shepherd. The former two are right there with one another, the largest separation at county and league meets over the past month was a whopping five points. That Freeland five point victory was a month back at the 2^nd TVC Jamboree, since then, Frankenmuth has claimed the two with a lesser margin.

Heck, even at the massive Bluejay Invite, the two squads were seven points apart, but that field isn’t all that comparable to the regional composition. What also isn’t comparable is how Shepherd ran at their home invite and at their final JPC Jamboree, also held in their friendly environs. An average of 33 seconds faster across their top seven, an indicator that the Bluejays are right at the level of the Falcons and Eagles.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Goodrich	48	1.0	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	67	2.5		86
3	Freeland	74	3.1		68
4	Shepherd	75	3.4		46
5	Imlay City	210	5.6
6	Birch Run	211	5.8
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	234	7.7
8	Flint Powers Catholic	248	8.9
9	Clio	249	9.1
10	Essexville-Garber	250	9.2
11	Flint Kearsley	257	9.8
12	North Branch	297	12.0
13	Bay City John Glenn	316	12.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Flint Powers Catholic	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Shepherd	82	2.3		95+
3	Frankenmuth	90	3.3		90
4	Saginaw Swan Valley	129	4.1		7
5	Freeland	137	4.4
6	Bay City John Glenn	206	6.4
7	Flint Kearsley	212	6.7
8	Ortonville Brandon	237	8.4
9	North Branch	249	9.2
10	Goodrich	261	10.1
11	Birch Run	271	10.8
12	Imlay City	285	11.5
13	Bay City Central	314	12.9
14	Clio	337	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.2
2	11	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
3	10	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	3.9
4	11	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.9
5	12	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	4.2
6	10	Danica Redes	Shepherd	6.1
7	11	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.4
8	12	Samantha Brown	Clio	9.7
9	9	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	10.7
10	11	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	11.4
11	11	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	11.8
12	11	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	12.0
13	10	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	12.1
14	11	Claire Brown	Goodrich	12.5
15	10	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	12.9
16	12	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	15.8
17	10	Ava Clark	Goodrich	16.7
18	10	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	17.4
19	12	Emilee Young	Shepherd	18.3
20	9	Grace Kloha	Freeland	20.9
21	10	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	22.8
22	12	Gabby Cleveland	Frankenmuth	24.2
23	11	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	25.0
24	11	Madison Moeggenborg	Shepherd	26.5
25	10	Ellie Thering	Freeland	27.4
26	11	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	27.8
27	11	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.7
28	9	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	29.0
29	11	Brynn Robinson	Shepherd	29.4
30	12	Madeline Dunn	Goodrich	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	2.1
2	12	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	12	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.1
4	12	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	6.9
5	12	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	7.2
6	10	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	7.7
7	11	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	8.5
8	12	Tommy Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	10.7
9	11	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	10.7
10	12	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.2
11	12	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	11.6
12	11	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	12.6
13	11	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	15.3
14	12	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	17.9
15	11	William McDonald	Shepherd	18.5
16	12	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	19.8
17	10	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	20.2
18	12	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	20.9
19	11	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	21.2
20	9	Ryan Brown	Freeland	21.6
21	12	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	22.5
22	12	Jace Thomas	Birch Run	23.7
23	11	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	25.2
24	10	Leif Briggs-Lind	Bay City John Glenn	25.8
25	12	Adam Howell	Flint Kearsley	27.3
26	11	Jaden Rodriguez	Saginaw Swan Valley	27.9
27	9	Everett Anaya	Freeland	28.9
28	12	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	29.0
29	11	Jackson Horn	Freeland	29.1
30	11	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	31.1

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

Fenton vs. Pinckney in the boys’ race. Linden vs. Pinckney in the girls’ race. Each tight knit battle features a race against one another. The first one we’ll see includes the home team, with their course knowledge vs. Pinckney, no stranger to hills in their every day life. The Pirates did take the trek up here for the Linden Classic, defeated by 13 points, though missing Julia Garcia. On the other hand, the Linden of the last few weeks is drastically different than the one from September.

More recently, the boys of Fenton and Pinckney faced off at Gabriel Richard. This is an interesting one, perhaps entirely dependent on where the packs of points lie (side note: this is one aspect of XC I love – how scoring can change in the context of what the rest of the field is doing). Both the Pirate and Tiger frontrunners and 4^th/5^th guys were almost identical. Fenton’s 2^nd man was at 16:08, 14 sec. and 10 places ahead of Pinckney’s #2. Pinckney’s 3^rd was at 16:33, 20 sec. and 13 places ahead of Fenton’s #3. The result of the meet was a 8-point win in favor of Pinckney. The projections think that the latter gap could be greater than the former, not in terms of time, but just how this field is composed. So a bit of a margin at Hudson Mills is lessened to what is essentially a coin flip.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Pinckney	63	1.4	62	95+
2	Linden	64	1.6	38	95+
3	Bloomfield Hills Marian	108	3.1		92
4	Farmington Hills Mercy	146	4.5		6
5	Dearborn Divine Child	175	5.8
6	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	176	6.0
7	Lake Fenton	183	6.3
8	Oak Park	207	7.7
9	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	236	9.5
10	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	247	10.1
11	Fenton	265	11.3
12	Detroit Country Day	269	11.6
13	Madison Heights Lamphere	275	12.1
14	Garden City	437	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Fenton	53	1.5	51	95+
2	Pinckney	54	1.6	49	95+
3	Detroit Country Day	93	3.0		95+
4	Dearborn Divine Child	143	4.4
5	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	156	5.3
6	Linden	156	5.3
7	Oak Park	188	7.1
8	Lake Fenton	203	7.8
9	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	236	9.0
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	266	10.2
11	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	291	11.5
12	Garden City	293	11.4
13	Pontiac	403	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	10	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	3.1
3	12	Julia Garcia	Pinckney	3.2
4	11	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
5	12	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.1
6	11	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	8.6
7	9	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	10.0
8	10	Molly Roberts	Linden	10.3
9	10	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	12.2
10	10	Lucy Bott	Fenton	12.6
11	11	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	13.6
12	12	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.0
13	10	Courtney Floeter	Linden	14.4
14	11	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	17.4
15	10	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	18.9
16	12	Roisin Whelan	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.2
17	10	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.7
18	11	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	22.1
19	10	Valyntina Garcia	Pinckney	23.1
20	9	Julia Geisz	Bloomfield Hills Marian	24.8
21	12	Brooklyn Reason	Pinckney	25.5
22	12	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.2
23	11	Isabella Kaminskas	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	26.7
24	10	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.7
25	11	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.8
26	11	Leah Thomas	Oak Park	27.0
27	10	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.0
28	11	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	28.7
29	11	Sidney Shepard	Linden	29.7
30	10	Morgan Hamilton	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Gavin Katic	Fenton	1.6
2	11	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.2
3	12	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
4	10	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	5.0
5	11	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
6	12	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	6.7
7	10	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	7.1
8	9	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	8.9
9	10	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	10.6
10	10	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	11.1
11	11	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	12.6
12	11	Ben Panter	Fenton	13.5
13	9	Alex Hagerty	Pinckney	17.0
14	11	Jackson Defina	Fenton	17.1
15	11	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	17.4
16	12	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	19.6
17	11	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	20.0
18	11	Jackson Martin	Fenton	20.0
19	11	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	20.1
20	10	Bo Cooke	Pinckney	20.4
21	10	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	20.5
22	10	Abram Larsen	Fenton	20.8
23	12	Shondell Warren	Oak Park	20.9
24	11	Grant Hunault	Fenton	21.7
25	9	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	24.3
26	10	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	26.7
27	9	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	28.4
28	10	Ben Sushynski	Linden	28.9
29	9	Kipton Smyth	Linden	32.1
30	12	Carter Johnston	Linden	33.2

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Wow, these teams are close. Each gender, too! A projected six points separate 2^nd through 4^th on the boys’ side, 14 are between 1^st and 4^th for the girls. St. Clair and Yale are in the mix of it for both, Macomb Lutheran North and Armada will feel the pressure in the girls’ race, and the Grosse Pointe North boys have a chance of advancing for another week.

Common competitions can give you a semblance of a clue. For instance, Yale’s girls were able to best Armada in the past two BWAC Jamborees. Or they could confuse you, as St. Clair used their depth to beat Yale at the Marysville Invite. But then if you look at a deep Holly field, St. Clair and Armada were neck and neck.

On the boys’ side, similar confusion abounds. During MAC Red meets and at Gabriel Richard, St. Clair held a significant margin over Grosse Pointe North. The most recent event for the two, Haunted Harvest, featured a GPN win, their pack tightly-wound with four boys between 17:50 and 18:10. Where St. Clair has gone, Yale has followed, extremely close in margin. Less than 5 points separated the squads at Brooks and Muskrat, the gap was 3 places at Portage. Extrapolating from that, you gotta assume that Yale > GPN, but not if it’s last week’s GPN.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Armada	64	1.7	53	95+
2	Macomb Lutheran North	72	2.6	26	69
3	St. Clair	75	2.7	14	73
4	Yale	78	3.1	7	60
5	Marysville	107	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	154	6.0
7	Warren Regina	194	7.3
8	Grosse Pointe North	203	7.7
9	Detroit University Prep	257	9.0
10	Harper Woods	309	10.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Macomb Lutheran North	45	1.1	94	95+
2	St. Clair	71	2.9		74
3	Yale	72	2.9		77
4	Grosse Pointe North	77	3.2		49
5	Marysville	106	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	151	6.0
7	Armada	179	7.0
8	Eastpointe	262	8.2
9	Harper Woods	272	8.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	1.2
2	9	Claire Albrecht	Armada	2.8
3	10	Saige Cole	Yale	3.3
4	10	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	5.4
5	12	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	5.9
6	12	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	8.4
7	9	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	8.5
8	11	Lillian Bender	Yale	9.6
9	10	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	10.5
10	12	Joselyn Chapman	Marysville	11.1
11	9	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	12.7
12	11	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	13.0
13	10	Malani May	Detroit University Prep	16.7
14	11	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	16.8
15	11	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	18.2
16	11	Kenzie LeVey	Marysville	20.1
17	9	Josie Komarowski	St. Clair	20.6
18	11	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	20.6
19	11	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	21.1
20	11	Helena Reiff	Armada	21.8
21	11	Ava Childers	Yale	22.1
22	10	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	22.2
23	10	Peyton Simmons	Marysville	22.4
24	9	Stella Bishop	St. Clair	23.0
25	12	Lydia McBride	Marysville	25.3
26	11	Addison Noteboom	Armada	25.5
27	10	Maylin Parish	Grosse Pointe North	25.6
28	12	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	26.5
29	10	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	26.9
30	9	Ariana Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	27.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.3
2	12	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	3.7
3	11	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	4.6
4	12	Nolan Korolden	Yale	5.0
5	12	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.3
6	10	Brady VanConant	Yale	8.7
7	11	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	9.8
8	12	Neil Orlowski	Grosse Pointe North	11.3
9	10	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	11.8
10	11	Brendan Koza	Marysville	11.8
11	11	Antonino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	11.8
12	12	Sam Parish	Grosse Pointe North	12.6
13	11	Logan Rhodes	Yale	12.8
14	10	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	13.5
15	9	Caleb McBride	Marysville	14.5
16	12	Paul Stephens	Grosse Pointe North	15.0
17	11	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	17.7
18	9	David Matthews	St. Clair	18.2
19	10	Dylan Phillips	Grosse Pointe North	18.4
20	12	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	19.1
21	12	William Haskins	Macomb Lutheran North	19.4
22	10	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.4
23	12	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	23.5
24	12	Leo Bearss	Yale	23.7
25	12	Robert Carrigan	Armada	25.1
26	12	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	27.2
27	10	Logan Carrier	Yale	27.7
28	10	Cole Carless	Yale	27.9
29	10	William Henze	Grosse Pointe North	29.0
30	11	Korey LeVey	Marysville	29.5

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Chelsea vs. Adrian boys, with a hint of Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard. Luckily, we’ve got plenty of SEC White runs between the first two and Jackson/Portage between all three.

Between the Maples and Bulldogs, Adrian was able to carry the SEC White action. Barely, scraping by with small margins over Chelsea. The common theme of separation was in the middle of the pack, with kids such as Easton Coscarelli and Landin Fisher driving enough of a gap to gain enough of a point advantage.

Outside of SEC play, the Jackson Invite appears to be the closest comparison to a regional field. And there, Chelsea’s depth stepped up and closed the gap on Adrian, allowing the Bulldogs to place 2^nd, just ahead of both Adrian and Gabriel Richard. And then there’s the Gabriel Richard Invite, where AAGR’s depth was ahead of Chelsea’s, enough to open up a 10-point gap in the Medium Schools division.

Legitimate arguments for each school!

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	New Boston Huron	73	2.0		95+
3	Adrian	99	3.0		95+
4	Chelsea	138	4.7
5	Tecumseh	142	4.9
6	Carleton Airport	150	5.4
7	Milan	199	7.5
8	Grosse Ile	202	7.7
9	Monroe Jefferson	219	8.8
10	Trenton	253	10.1
11	Dundee	267	10.8
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	375	12.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Chelsea	71	1.6	55	95+
2	Adrian	77	2.0	30	95+
3	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	88	2.6	15	92
4	Tecumseh	119	4.2		6
5	New Boston Huron	147	5.7
6	Carleton Airport	148	5.8
7	Flat Rock	164	6.7
8	Monroe Jefferson	187	7.8
9	Grosse Ile	216	8.9
10	Milan	286	10.4
11	Dundee	309	11.0
12	Riverview	324	11.6
13	Trenton	398	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.2
2	10	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.7
3	11	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	4.3
4	12	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	4.9
5	11	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	5.4
6	10	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	7.0
7	10	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	7.3
8	12	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.0
9	12	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.3
10	9	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	10.7
11	12	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	11.4
12	10	Regan Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.0
13	12	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	14.1
14	11	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	15.3
16	12	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	15.5
17	11	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	16.5
18	12	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	16.7
19	11	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	20.0
20	12	Avery Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.1
21	10	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	22.6
22	9	Loretta Frasca	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	24.3
23	10	Ellia Egle	New Boston Huron	24.9
24	10	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	25.6
25	11	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	26.2
26	9	Randee Mulherin	Monroe Jefferson	26.8
27	10	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	27.9
28	10	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	28.1
29	11	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	29.4
30	10	Morgan McMichael	Tecumseh	33.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Moises Salazar Jr.	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	2.8
3	12	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	4.2
4	12	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	5.5
5	11	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	6.5
6	12	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	6.7
7	9	Parker Smith	Adrian	8.4
8	10	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	10.9
9	11	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	12.4
10	11	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	12.9
11	12	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.9
12	12	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	14.2
13	12	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	15.2
14	11	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	16.2
15	10	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	17.4
16	9	Mason Martin	Milan	17.5
17	10	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	17.5
18	9	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	17.8
19	10	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	20.5
20	11	Carter Fenner	Adrian	21.4
21	10	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	21.7
22	12	Miles Dell	Chelsea	24.3
23	11	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	25.8
24	10	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.1
25	10	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.4
26	11	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.6
27	12	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	27.7
28	9	Jonathan Love	Chelsea	29.0
29	11	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	29.5
30	11	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	30.4

Uncategorized

2025 Regional Projections: Division 3

October 22, 2025October 22, 2025 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Your D3 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 19

Any Big Battles?

Both of the individual races and most of the potential qualifying look to be set in stone. Traditional winner Traverse City St. Francis is in there in both genders, Charlevoix and their devious Hunter Eaton are elite within D3, Harbor Springs hasn’t blinked when moving down a division, Coach King has been a shot in the arm for the Elk Rapids frontrunners. But there’s one spot with a bit of intrigue. Who may be the other girls team to advance?

When there’s a team with 65%+ chance of qualifying, then many with lower odds, that can often mean that the favorite is consistent, then the others either have a single great team effort, or athletes individually finding great efforts on separate occasions. Boyne City has been the most consistent team of the bunch, beating Kalkaska in their home invite, the Northern Shores Championship, and in a regional preview here (also beating Grayling). Although you see three wins over Kalkaska, that one here on the regional course came down to the sixth runner. Two of the Blazers trailed the nearest competitor by less than two seconds, so it’s not as if Kalkaska can’t pull ahead of BC.

Roscommon has shown that they have the goods, evidenced by races at Northern Michigan and Bluejay. In my mind, it’s an added bonus and assurance when a team displays its best efforts in meets with great significance. The Bucks were able to place 6^th at Northern Michigan, although they did score below Elk Rapids.

Maybe it’s Standish Sterling, a team that’s had personal bests from all five of their girls at each of their last two meets, Freeland and the JPC Final. Or Grayling, whose depth has shown rapid growth in the past few weeks.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	55	1.1	94	95+
2	Harbor Springs	87	2.0	6	95+
3	Boyne City	130	3.6		66
4	Standish-Sterling	146	5.5		13
5	Roscommon	148	5.7		8
6	Kalkaska	152	6.3		5
7	Elk Rapids	153	6.5
8	Charlevoix	157	7.1
9	Grayling	165	7.5		5
10	Cheboygan	187	9.7
11	Tawas	326	11.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Charlevoix	27	1.0	95+	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	97	2.2		95+
3	Harbor Springs	114	2.9		95+
4	Roscommon	148	4.5
5	Grayling	157	5.1
6	Boyne City	174	6.6
7	Kalkaska	185	7.7
8	Fairview	188	7.9
9	Standish-Sterling	195	8.6
10	Mancelona	196	8.6
11	Cheboygan	233	11.0
12	Oscoda	314	12.0
13	Tawas	393	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	1.3
2	12	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	2.4
3	11	Nico Triebold	Grayling	5.4
4	11	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	5.8
5	10	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	6.0
6	10	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	6.5
7	9	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon	7.0
8	12	Maryrose Halberg	Charlevoix	9.3
9	11	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	10.9
10	10	Gabi Rempe	Harbor Springs	12.0
11	11	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	14.0
12	10	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	14.9
13	9	Ruby Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	17.4
14	12	Delaney Little	Boyne City	18.1
15	12	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	18.1
16	11	Laura Janisse	Roscommon	18.2
17	11	Addy Wiers	Charlevoix	19.3
18	9	Isabella Wegener	Kalkaska	20.3
19	11	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	20.4
20	12	Christina Pake	Standish-Sterling	21.0
21	11	Briahna Campbell	Cheboygan	22.4
22	11	Cloee Rupp	Cheboygan	22.9
23	10	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	23.3
24	11	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	24.1
25	12	Laura Spyker	Standish-Sterling	24.6
26	10	Betty Cordner	Traverse City St. Francis	24.7
27	12	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	25.8
28	12	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	26.5
29	9	Elin Jager	Traverse City St. Francis	27.3
30	9	Allison Kujawski	Boyne City	29.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	1.2
2	11	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	2.5
3	12	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	3.1
4	12	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	4.0
5	11	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	5.3
6	11	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon	6.8
7	10	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	7.2
8	11	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	9.5
9	11	Thomas Janisse	Roscommon	11.9
10	11	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	12.0
11	10	Aurie Selph	Charlevoix	13.2
12	10	Liam Mahaffy	Grayling	14.4
13	11	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	15.7
14	9	Louis Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	16.6
15	12	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	17.1
16	11	Eli Williamson	Standish-Sterling	17.9
17	10	Jacob Muladore	Charlevoix	18.4
18	9	Landon Baas	Harbor Springs	19.0
19	11	Finn Parish	Boyne City	19.4
20	12	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	19.6
21	12	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	20.9
22	10	Harper Mullet	Traverse City St. Francis	21.2
23	11	Nate Gorman	Traverse City St. Francis	21.6
24	9	Liam Piotrowski	Oscoda	22.2
25	10	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	23.9
26	9	Mathieu Moore	Grayling	29.5
27	10	Charlie Denherder	Elk Rapids	29.5
28	12	Andrew Kiefer	Cheboygan	31.0
29	10	Hayden Mohrhardt	Traverse City St. Francis	31.6
30	10	Elliot Smith	Mancelona	31.8

REGION 20

Any Big Battles?

The preseason projections thought there’d be a struggle between the two squads, but they misfired on the gender. Twice, Benzie Central and Hart have raced in the same division, once in the same meet. When placed on the line together, the Pirates have come out ahead, their biggest gaps often coming later in the scoring. At Bluejay, the Huskies competed earlier in the day and the Pirates late, Benzie Central averaging much faster times in the cooler morning air. But I’m not sure that the heat completely made up for the gap in the two performances. Of course, common invites aren’t the only factor here. Benzie has the home course advantage and recent evidence that they can roll there, winning the final NWC Jamboree with four of their varsity pack racing to personal bests.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Benzie Central	68	1.5	59	95+
2	Hart	72	1.8	36	95+
3	McBain	91	2.9	5	93
4	Reed City	116	4.0		6
5	Manistee	141	5.1
6	Leroy Pine River	154	6.1
7	Mason County Central	164	6.9
8	Lake City	182	7.8
9	Manton	225	9.2
10	Shelby	239	9.9
11	Morley-Stanwood	304	11.0
12	White Cloud	364	12.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Benzie Central	50	1.0	95+	95+
2	Hart	76	2.3		95+
3	Lake City	82	2.7		95+
4	Reed City	110	4.1		5
5	Manton	133	4.9
6	McBain	195	6.4
7	Leroy Pine River	202	6.8
8	Harrison	230	8.5
9	Manistee	235	9.0
10	Kingsley	243	9.5
11	Mason County Central	273	11.0
12	Shelby	293	11.9

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	1.9
2	10	Caelyn Torry	McBain	2.7
3	10	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	4.6
4	11	Natalie Rosema	Hart	5.1
5	11	Betsy Gooden	Manton	5.5
6	11	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	5.6
7	10	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	8.3
8	11	Hallee Hervey	Reed City	10.7
9	10	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	11.0
10	10	Faith Helsel	Lake City	12.1
11	9	Emma Miller	Hart	12.2
12	10	Alaina Schaner	Hart	12.2
13	10	Ingrid Molins Rallo	Benzie Central	12.5
14	10	Hattie Driver	Manistee	15.6
15	9	Kristina Bott	Benzie Central	15.6
16	9	Lily Sisson	Leroy Pine River	16.4
17	11	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	17.4
18	9	Mya Bronkema	McBain	18.1
19	12	Georgia Haag	Manistee	18.2
20	10	Bryn Riley	Hart	19.2
21	10	Harlow Hughes	Lake City	20.2
22	11	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	21.3
23	12	Nevaeh Battice	Mason County Central	22.3
24	10	Luisa Vander Zwaag	Hart	23.1
25	11	Kayden Hinton	McBain	26.3
26	11	Noel Parker	Shelby	26.7
27	9	Grace Wilson	McBain	27.3
28	10	Madilynn Fancett	McBain	29.5
29	12	Makayla Watkins	Reed City	30.4
30	12	Sahara Davis	Reed City	30.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	1.7
2	12	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	3.6
3	12	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	5.1
4	10	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	6.2
5	12	Connor Helsel	Lake City	6.6
6	10	Edison Huizinga	Manistee	6.6
7	12	Paul Saladin	Reed City	7.5
8	11	Logan Young	Harrison	7.6
9	10	Timothy Wolff	Hart	13.3
10	12	Kyle Vincent	Benzie Central	13.5
11	11	Aiden Schaner	Hart	14.0
12	10	Azrael Horvath	Manton	14.7
13	11	Brayden Spears	Lake City	16.1
14	11	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	16.2
15	9	Liam Plainte	Houghton Lake	16.3
16	12	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	16.7
17	12	Wyatt Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	17.0
18	10	Silas Ackley	Hart	18.4
19	11	Mason Opalewski	Hart	19.5
20	11	Braydn Winkel	McBain	20.4
21	12	Ethan Baker	Leroy Pine River	20.7
22	10	Trevor VanderKodde	Hart	20.7
23	10	Grant Ackley	Hart	21.3
24	10	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	21.5
25	10	Walter Armstrong	Benzie Central	24.7
26	10	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	24.8
27	11	Owen VanderVlucht	Hart	26.2
28	11	Carter Root	Lake City	28.2
29	12	Aaron Allen	Reed City	28.7
30	11	Jackson Poll	Mason County Central	30.4

REGION 21

Any Big Battles?

Gonna be a fun one for the boys in all facets. For the win, two teams that have hovered around the top-ten rankings – Holland Black River and The Potter’s House. Potentially moving on for another week of bonding and racing as a team – NorthPointe Christian, Western Michigan Christian, and Covenant Christian.

There have been plenty of matchups between the prior two and latter three. Four times have HBR and TPH toed the line together, the Pumas holding a 3-1 edge. Throughout the first three races, the Pumas held the edge in a multitude of ways, but especially on depth late in the scoring. At Portage, Black River was able to pull ahead, although Potter’s House was missing one of their prime scorers.

Of the latter three, Covenant Christian has been the most consistent. The Charger top-five has been able to average the equivalent of a sub-18 in five meets. Western Michigan Christian has occasionally shown the juice, four of the Warrior boys gravitating under 18:00 at Portage, a meet where they were ahead of all but Black River. A week earlier at Allendale, NorthPointe had flipped the above, besting WMC and trailing HBR by only 8 points. Many arguments for state inclusion, but only three spots.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	66	1.9	45	95+
2	Grandville Calvin Christian	68	2.0	30	95+
3	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	72	2.4	23	85
4	Kent City	91	3.7		20
5	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	197	6.0
6	Belding	203	6.5
7	Holland Black River	212	7.4
8	Lakeview	215	7.7
9	Newaygo	225	8.7
10	Saranac	227	8.7
11	The Potter’s House	293	11.3
12	North Muskegon	311	12.3
13	Delton-Kellogg	317	12.6
14	Montague	355	14.1
15	Ravenna	371	14.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	The Potter’s House	75	1.4	68	95+
2	Holland Black River	85	2.0	25	95+
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	111	3.9		45
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	114	4.0		28
5	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	114	4.1		27
6	Montague	139	5.6
7	Delton-Kellogg	215	7.6
8	Saranac	223	8.1
9	Kent City	239	8.8
10	Lakeview	261	10.0
11	Belding	279	10.7
12	Newaygo	304	11.8
13	Grandville Calvin Christian	332	13.0
14	Ravenna	365	14.0
15	North Muskegon	438	15.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Elliana Max	Kent City	1.0
2	11	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	2.5
3	12	Aletta Scholten	Grandville Calvin Christian	4.7
4	9	Kylie Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	5.0
5	11	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	5.3
6	10	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City	5.5
7	11	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	9.5
8	11	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	10.0
9	11	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	10.2
10	11	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	11.4
11	10	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian	11.4
12	10	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	13.8
13	10	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.5
14	9	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.3
15	9	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.5
16	9	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City	16.7
17	9	Jenny Woznick	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	16.9
18	10	Esther Cahill	Saranac	18.0
19	12	Maria Campbell	Grandville Calvin Christian	20.1
20	12	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	21.0
21	10	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.0
22	10	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	21.5
23	9	Eliana Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	22.6
24	12	Jennifer Popp	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	22.7
25	11	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.0
26	9	Sonya Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.6
27	11	Rochelle Liu	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	26.4
28	9	Kyla Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	27.7
29	11	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	29.4
30	10	Naomi Telman	Holland Black River	29.8

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	1.7
2	12	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	1.8
3	12	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	3.8
4	11	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	8.4
5	11	David Castrejon	Newaygo	9.7
6	11	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	9.8
7	11	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.4
8	10	Nolan Kessler	Montague	10.6
9	12	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River	11.2
10	11	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	11.4
11	11	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River	12.5
12	11	Gibson Smith	Montague	14.6
13	11	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	14.9
14	12	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.4
15	11	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	15.5
16	12	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House	15.5
17	11	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	16.0
18	10	Avery Carlson	Holland Black River	17.8
19	9	Luke Worley	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.4
20	12	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.5
21	11	Eli Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.7
22	11	Mattias Tuls	The Potter’s House	21.5
23	11	Landon Madden	Delton-Kellogg	23.1
24	11	Evan Buteyn	Grandville Calvin Christian	23.8
25	12	Isaac Westra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	26.0
26	10	Logan Sicilia	The Potter’s House	27.1
27	11	Nick Leonhard	The Potter’s House	27.4
28	11	Landon Kuperus	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.9
29	12	Christopher Delaney	The Potter’s House	32.2
30	12	Kaden Mingerink	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	33.3

REGION 22

Any Big Battles?

His junior year has almost identically matched the same pattern as his sophomore season, just a minute faster. John Keser hung out in the 18’s for much of the ’24 season, then made a dramatic shift late. He hit a 17:09 at Portage, nearly matched the time with his regional effort, then broke into the 16’s at State. This fall, he began in the mid-17’s, made a breakthrough at Berrien County, then has extended into the very low-16’s. He’s got the top time (and rating), but is closely followed by two Saugatuck boys – Marcus Silva and Grant Rehkopf. Speaking of trends and looking to the past, both of the Trailblazers ran their best to close the previous season and are trending that way again. Regardless of what goes down individually, I know these three will have another gear for MIS.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Saugatuck	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Bridgman	79	2.1		95+
3	Watervliet	99	3.0		91
4	Fennville	136	4.8		5
5	Buchanan	144	5.2
6	Constantine	146	5.3
7	Niles Brandywine	180	7.2
8	Hartford	189	7.6
9	Schoolcraft	234	9.2
10	Bloomingdale	264	10.2
11	Kalamazoo Christian	274	10.5
12	Bangor	344	12.3
13	Coloma	363	13.1
14	Comstock	384	13.7

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Saugatuck	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Buchanan	57	2.1		95+
3	Schoolcraft	78	2.9		95+
4	Bangor	153	4.5
5	Hartford	155	4.6
6	Watervliet	190	6.6
7	Constantine	200	7.2
8	Fennville	203	7.3
9	Bridgman	235	9.1
10	Parchment	253	10.1
11	Coloma	272	11.3
12	Bloomingdale	276	11.3
13	Kalamazoo Christian	338	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	1.5
2	12	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	2.6
3	9	Tala Carlin	Buchanan	3.6
4	11	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	3.8
5	11	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	4.5
6	9	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck	7.7
7	12	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	8.1
8	9	Allison Burns	Constantine	8.6
9	12	Savannah VanDenBerg	Saugatuck	9.2
10	10	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	10.6
11	9	Daniella Romero	Watervliet	11.8
12	10	Anna Howell	Bridgman	12.1
13	9	Anna Davidhizar	Constantine	12.9
14	10	Kaylin Pinkowski	Bridgman	15.1
15	11	Juliana Morseau	Hartford	16.4
16	10	Miranda Lowell	Watervliet	16.8
17	9	Ryann Monroe	Saugatuck	17.6
18	10	Evangeline Brown	Bridgman	23.3
19	11	Stella Ullig	Bridgman	23.3
20	10	Payton Yeske	Watervliet	23.7
21	10	Katelyn Brown	Watervliet	24.8
22	12	Brianna Zwar	Watervliet	26.3
23	12	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	26.3
24	11	Paytin Featherstone	Constantine	27.0
25	11	Abigail Mulder	Schoolcraft	27.8
26	12	Samantha Giles	Fennville	28.3
27	11	Anika Weurding	Lawton	28.5
28	10	Abigail Douglass	Bridgman	28.8
29	9	Laila Wogatzke	Niles Brandywine	34.3
30	10	MaKenzie McClintock	Kalamazoo Christian	35.1

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	John Keser	Buchanan	2.6
2	11	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	2.8
3	11	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	2.9
4	10	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	5.5
5	11	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.0
6	9	Reese Devisser	Schoolcraft	7.7
7	12	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	8.0
8	12	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	8.3
9	9	Sam Casiano	Watervliet	8.7
10	12	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	8.8
11	11	Xavier Pompey	Coloma	10.6
12	11	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	12.4
13	11	Colin Bauer	Schoolcraft	12.6
14	12	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	15.9
15	12	Ace Drewyor	Schoolcraft	18.8
16	11	Collin Bauer	Schoolcraft	19.3
17	12	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	19.4
18	12	Eli Martin	Schoolcraft	19.8
19	10	Carter Brouwer	Bangor	21.2
20	11	Carson Pullins	Bangor	21.6
21	9	Carson Ernsberger	Bridgman	21.8
22	9	Tony Perez	Watervliet	21.9
23	12	Isaac Cruz	Saugatuck	22.3
24	10	Ashton Skinner	Saugatuck	22.8
25	10	Josiah Passig	Buchanan	25.5
26	9	Bentley Molitor	Buchanan	25.8
27	11	Alex Diaz	Hartford	26.6
28	11	Josaias Robles	Hartford	31.4
29	12	Aiden Woods	Comstock	31.7
30	12	Trap Abbott	Bangor	33.0

REGION 23

Any Big Battles?

Will Hulin vs. Caleb Blonde, or whomever wants to slide in there and steal a title. That could be Clint Couchman, who has shown he can handle tough conditions, such as his 16:28 at Spartan. Perhaps Chad Tyson, who has put together solid efforts in two of Michigan’s bigger invites (Bluejay and Portage). Maybe a Logan Youngman, who was ahead of Hulin at Sturgis and the others at Jackson.

Hulin has consistently pushed out the best races of the region. A year ago, the Centreville athlete crept his way into the 16’s by the end of the year. The improvement hasn’t stopped, as he’s been a steady figure in the low-16’s, just on the cusp of breaking into a new time zone. Blonde is the fastest returner from 2024’s region and the 2^nd fastest returner in the entire division. He hasn’t quite matched the 15:44 from last fall’s State Finals, but the trend is pointing toward a new PR by season’s end, Caleb racing to three sub-16’s in a row.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	47	1.2	85	95+
2	Olivet	57	1.9	15	95+
3	Bronson	93	3.0		95+
4	Hanover-Horton	143	4.5
5	Jonesville	155	5.0
6	Napoleon	179	6.3
7	Onsted	188	6.9
8	Union City	203	7.8
9	Centreville	229	9.2
10	Sand Creek	232	9.4
11	Homer	268	10.9
12	Hillsdale	307	12.0
13	Quincy	359	13.1
14	Springport	392	13.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	Hanover-Horton	83	2.4		95+
3	Jonesville	88	2.6		95+
4	Centreville	211	6.0
5	Quincy	213	6.3
6	Sand Creek	223	7.2
7	Onsted	225	7.7
8	Bronson	228	8.2
9	Napoleon	229	8.3
10	Union City	237	9.3
11	Hillsdale	240	9.8
12	Brooklyn Columbia Central	241	9.9
13	Homer	281	12.8
14	Olivet	293	13.6
15	Springport	404	15.1
16	Galesburg-Augusta	434	15.9

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.2
2	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	2.0
3	9	Lily Britton	Olivet	3.7
4	12	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	4.2
5	12	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.4
6	10	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	6.7
7	9	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	7.5
8	12	Emily Peters	Olivet	9.3
9	11	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	11.2
10	9	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet	11.6
11	9	Mila Scheele	Jackson Lumen Christi	13.3
12	11	Miriam Sanchez	Bronson	14.9
13	9	Ella Worthing	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.1
14	11	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	15.9
15	11	Allison Gautsche	Union City	16.8
16	11	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	19.8
17	12	Sophie Patrick	Homer	19.9
18	10	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	20.4
19	12	Lillian Ambler	Homer	20.9
20	10	Sophia Trachsel	Jackson Lumen Christi	21.1
21	12	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	21.3
22	10	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	23.8
23	11	Keira Knight	Jonesville	23.9
24	11	Joleane Gulledge	Jonesville	24.2
25	11	Rachel Devrie	Jackson Lumen Christi	25.3
26	12	Bryn Biela	Hanover-Horton	27.7
27	9	Piper Grigsby	Bronson	29.6
28	9	Emme Naylor	Napoleon	29.8
29	12	Emma Grulke	Onsted	30.0
30	10	Gabby Gaydosh	Brooklyn Columbia Central	33.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Will Hulin	Centreville	2.3
2	11	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	3.2
3	11	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	3.5
4	11	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	4.0
5	10	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	4.9
6	12	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.1
7	11	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.2
8	10	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.8
9	12	John Edler	Homer	11.6
10	12	Ben Gautsche	Union City	12.1
11	12	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.7
12	11	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	12.8
13	11	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	13.3
14	11	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	13.7
15	10	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	14.6
16	12	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	16.5
17	11	Ethan Huff	Homer	16.6
18	10	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	18.0
19	9	Bryce Youngman	Hillsdale	21.3
20	10	Chris Durfey	Onsted	21.3
21	11	Nicklas Holmes	Onsted	24.1
22	10	Jude Wentzloff	Jackson Lumen Christi	24.6
23	10	Hunter Walker	Quincy	25.9
24	11	Cullen Decker	Union City	26.3
25	10	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	27.2
26	10	Anderson Cook	Hanover-Horton	27.6
27	12	Andrew Norman	Napoleon	27.8
28	11	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	28.2
29	11	Brayton Cosby	Bronson	31.2
30	12	Chayse Jensen	Quincy	33.2

REGION 24

Any Big Battles?

Not really! Region 24 appears to be very undramatic. If there are any heroics, I’ll be present to watch.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	90	2.4		95+
3	Bath	93	2.6		95+
4	Chesaning	131	4.3
5	Millington	139	4.8
6	Perry	167	6.6
7	Laingsburg	175	7.2
8	New Lothrop	175	7.2
9	Ovid-Elsie	196	8.8
10	Montrose	215	9.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Stanton Central Montcalm	44	1.0	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	73	2.1		95+
3	Montrose	91	3.0		95+
4	Chesaning	130	4.5
5	Otisville LakeVille	139	5.1
6	Laingsburg	153	6.1
7	Ovid-Elsie	157	6.5
8	Bath	186	7.9
9	Millington	225	9.3
10	New Lothrop	231	9.6

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.2
2	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.2
3	12	Abigail Reis	Millington	3.2
4	12	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	4.5
5	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.7
6	12	Anna Poppema	Bath	6.2
7	12	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	9.0
8	11	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.1
9	11	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.3
10	9	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop	11.4
11	10	Ruby Gross	Chesaning	11.9
12	9	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia	12.0
13	11	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.3
14	10	Courtney Lawhorne	Bath	14.9
15	12	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	17.4
16	12	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	17.9
17	9	Teagan Kuykendall	Bath	18.2
18	9	Claire Burrows	Millington	19.5
19	9	Olivia Roseberry	Perry	19.8
20	10	Takoda Holicki	Montrose	20.7
21	9	Brynn Burrows	Millington	21.2
22	12	Africa Beltran	Bath	21.5
23	10	Leah Theile	Chesaning	21.6
24	10	Ali Hunt	New Lothrop	25.5
25	10	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	25.6
26	10	Alonna Neumann	Chesaning	26.1
27	12	Isabella Nalewyko	Montrose	28.4
28	10	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	29.0
29	11	Claire Schmidtfranz	Perry	29.7
30	12	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	30.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	12	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	2.7
3	10	Owen Poppema	Bath	3.1
4	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.2
5	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	5.3
6	10	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	6.4
7	12	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.9
8	12	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.2
9	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.6
10	10	Eli Hobson	Montrose	10.0
11	11	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.4
12	10	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.4
13	11	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	14.5
14	12	Jaycob Hipps	Montrose	15.2
15	12	Ayden Hipps	Montrose	15.5
16	9	Mason Bollinger	Stanton Central Montcalm	17.4
17	11	Jobriel Octubre	Chesaning	19.1
18	12	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	19.7
19	10	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	22.6
20	9	Will Baese	Ovid-Elsie	22.9
21	11	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	23.3
22	11	Tyler Rockafellow	Perry	24.0
23	10	Masen O’Neil	Millington	25.4
24	11	Wyatt Linson	Otisville LakeVille	25.5
25	10	Michael Allen	Montrose	26.3
26	12	Reed Schroeder	Pewamo-Westphalia	26.3
27	12	Cole Maier	Chesaning	26.5
28	11	Tyne Evans	Stanton Central Montcalm	27.8
29	9	Jeffery Delong	Montrose	29.8
30	11	Travis Wright	Ovid-Elsie	30.2

REGION 25

Any Big Battles?

This is one of those wild regions, both in geography and a wide range of teams that could advance. Latitudinally, Region 25 is unmatched, 56 miles tall x 140 miles wide. Competitively, it hangs right with the best as well. In the mix for a qualifier are a whopping five boys teams and six(!) girls teams. Within the six girls teams are:

The long trekking Remus Chippewa Hills. They’re the favorite, largely because of their upper three (Dory Simon, Quinn Hatfield, and Peyton Nellis) who should be quick enough to stay out of the fray in the middle.

Ithaca, who’s seemingly always missing a girl. But when combined, their top-six have season bests of 22-flat and faster.

Saginaw Valley Lutheran, who holds TVC wins over the team above and the best team performance of any team sans Chippewa Hills. At Saginaw County, the Chargers placed 3^rd behind D2 standouts Freeland and Frankenmuth.

Midland Bullock Creek and Sanford-Meridian, who both had their best conference performance in the final JPC Jamboree. The Lancers outdueled the Mustangs by three points over at Shepherd.

Caro, coming off one of their better efforts of the year at Thumb Area. The Tigers are the queens of the Thumb, winning with three girls reaching under 21:00.

Both Bullock Creek and Caro have Wagener Park experience, with Bullock Creek taking a narrow win over the Tigers at last month’s Wagener Park Invite.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Remus Chippewa Hills	78	1.3	75	95+
2	Midland Bullock Creek	94	2.5	13	87
3	Ithaca	111	4.2	5	40
4	Caro	112	4.3		29
5	Sanford-Meridian	118	4.8		19
6	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	122	5.1		22
7	Pigeon-Laker	135	6.0
8	St. Louis	194	8.2
9	Hemlock	229	9.5
10	Sandusky	238	10.1
11	Reese	242	10.3

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ithaca	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Midland Bullock Creek	93	2.7		83
3	Caro	96	2.9		76
4	Sanford-Meridian	112	4.3		13
5	Pigeon-Laker	112	4.1		28
6	Reese	151	6.0
7	Beaverton	201	6.9
8	Carrollton	274	8.9
9	Farwell	284	9.6
10	Remus Chippewa Hills	291	9.9
11	Cass City	299	10.6
12	St. Louis	318	11.9
13	Sandusky	339	13.5
14	Pinconning	349	14.2
15	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	354	14.5
16	Hemlock	362	15.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Violet Tetil	Caro	1.1
2	10	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	2.7
3	11	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	4.4
4	12	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	4.9
5	10	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	7.5
6	9	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro	8.0
7	12	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.5
8	10	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	8.9
9	10	Peyton Nellis	Remus Chippewa Hills	11.1
10	11	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	11.9
11	9	Sage Palmer	Sandusky	12.7
12	11	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	13.1
13	11	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	14.3
14	10	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	14.4
15	11	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	14.6
16	10	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	15.4
17	10	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	15.7
18	12	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	17.4
19	9	Lexi Kinder	St. Louis	18.5
20	12	Maria Campo-Cossio Calderon	Bad Axe	21.6
21	9	Rebekah Huber	Midland Bullock Creek	26.1
22	11	Lydia Faubert	Hemlock	26.6
23	12	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	26.7
24	10	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	27.0
25	10	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	27.7
26	11	Adeline Ludwig	Midland Bullock Creek	29.3
27	9	Sara Guest	Midland Bullock Creek	30.3
28	9	Sophi Beach	Sanford-Meridian	30.8
29	11	Olivia Hooper	Pigeon-Laker	32.2
30	10	Charlee MacLaren	Ithaca	32.3

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Luke Herron	Caro	1.5
2	12	Landen Styka	Ithaca	3.0
3	12	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	4.6
4	11	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	4.9
5	12	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	4.9
6	11	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	5.8
7	9	Asher Putman	Reese	7.4
8	11	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	7.9
9	10	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	9.6
10	10	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	10.7
11	12	Duane Davis	Midland Bullock Creek	12.9
12	12	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	13.5
13	10	Brendan Plante	Midland Bullock Creek	16.8
14	12	Wesley Haines	Reese	17.4
15	12	James Schroder	Sanford-Meridian	17.6
16	11	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	18.1
17	12	Gage Spencer	Beaverton	18.4
18	11	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	19.0
19	11	Dillon Spilker	Sanford-Meridian	19.1
20	9	Jacob Daisy	Caro	20.8
21	10	Luke Mulder	Midland Bullock Creek	20.9
22	9	Zeke Rickwalt	Caro	22.0
23	11	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	23.1
24	11	Xander Huckins	Reese	23.2
25	12	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	24.4
26	10	Kale Miklovic	Pigeon-Laker	26.0
27	9	Walter Haag	Pigeon-Laker	27.3
28	10	Xavier Teneyuque	Carrollton	28.0
29	9	Silas Finney	Beaverton	28.4
30	11	Grady Galbraith	Hemlock	29.4

REGION 26

Any Big Battles?

Listed here in the summer, fallen a bit by mid-season, now back in the picture are the Ann Arbor Greenhills girls. The Gryphons are coming off an excellent performance at Gabriel Richard, with the majority of their varsity girls attaining a PR. They’re in competition with Leslie, a typical qualifier out of this region. The Blackhawks feature Hailey Creisher, one of the better (if not the best) girls in D3. The benefit of a girl such as Creisher is that Leslie will only need to score four.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Plymouth Christian Academy	79	2.2		95+
3	Leslie	100	3.1		75
4	Ann Arbor Greenhills	114	3.7		26
5	Algonac	168	5.4
6	Almont	178	6.1
7	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	190	6.6
8	Stockbridge	239	8.5
9	University Liggett	245	9.1
10	Clawson	257	10.0
11	Wixom St. Catherine	272	11.2
12	Marine City	272	11.1
13	New Haven	318	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	49	1.0	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Greenhills	94	2.5		95+
3	Plymouth Christian Academy	96	2.6		95+
4	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	138	4.7
5	Leslie	142	4.9
6	Algonac	147	5.5
7	Almont	178	7.1
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	193	7.9
9	New Haven	235	9.2
10	Clawson	260	10.3
11	Stockbridge	272	10.9
12	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	286	11.5
13	St. Clair Shores South Lake	347	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	1.2
2	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	2.6
3	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	2.8
4	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic	4.4
5	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	4.6
6	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	6.8
7	9	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.0
8	12	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	8.3
9	12	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.5
10	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	9.6
11	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	10.1
12	11	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	13.7
13	10	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	14.4
14	10	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	16.8
15	10	Rachel Meek	Plymouth Christian Academy	17.4
16	11	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	17.9
17	12	Laila Evola	Almont	18.8
18	9	Lucy Chapman	Stockbridge	20.0
19	11	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.6
20	10	Piper Lyon	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	21.9
21	12	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.3
22	11	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	23.9
23	10	Katie Vick	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.0
24	9	Kadence Ager	Algonac	25.2
25	10	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	25.3
26	10	Leah Flannery	Leslie	25.3
27	12	Zipporah Tran	Plymouth Christian Academy	26.0
28	10	Sophia Carson	University Liggett	26.9
29	12	Harper Cash	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.5
30	11	Emma Reimer	New Haven	30.8

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.0
2	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	5.2
3	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic	6.0
4	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge	6.2
5	12	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	6.6
6	11	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	7.0
7	9	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy	7.3
8	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven	8.7
9	12	Julian Walker	Algonac	10.1
10	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	10.4
11	10	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	10.9
12	12	Owen Beindit	Algonac	11.6
13	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	13.2
14	10	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	14.0
15	12	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.6
16	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	14.6
17	10	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	16.0
18	12	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.0
19	10	Landon Shimkus	Charyl Stockwell Academy	18.7
20	11	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	21.9
21	11	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	22.2
22	12	Blaise Demko	Lansing Catholic	22.9
23	9	Henry Cooper	Ann Arbor Greenhills	24.6
24	10	Jarel Adams	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.2
25	11	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	25.7
26	11	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	26.2
27	11	Colton Grzyb	Almont	26.7
28	12	Brody Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	27.7
29	12	Adam SaintOnge	Almont	29.5
30	11	Roger Mariani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.6

REGION 27

Any Big Battles?

Five boys teams vying for three spots. Two, Blissfield and Erie Mason, seem to be a step above the rest of the field. The Hudson Booster Invite is typically a place where the best D3 teams in the area compete, the Eagles and Royals claiming the top-two spots. There was a 5-point difference, with Erie Mason taking the win, largely thanks to their depth through the back end of their scorers.

Anyhow, Grass Lake, Monroe St. Mary CC, and Adrian Madison are in contention for the other spot. SMCC has run the best of late, with four boys in the mid-18’s or under in their 4^th place Huron League finish. Two common competitions exist between SMCC and the other two, the Falcons winning over Grass Lake at Portage and Madison at Huron. But much time has transpired since either of the two races. Madison was able to place in the upper half of the field at Lenawee County on the tough Gerber Hill course. Unable to compete for Grass Lake at Portage was Emmet Van Cleave, who busted out a sub-18 PR in his return at Hudson Mills.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Blissfield	23	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grass Lake	66	2.0		95+
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	91	3.0		95+
4	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	112	4.0
5	Clinton	131	5.3
6	Erie Mason	140	5.9
7	Ida	152	6.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Erie Mason	53	1.2	84	95+
2	Blissfield	66	2.1	13	95+
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	88	3.6		48
4	Grass Lake	93	3.9		34
5	Adrian Madison	97	4.3		18
6	Clinton	147	6.0
7	Ida	189	7.0
8	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	223	8.1
9	Detroit Cristo Rey	238	8.9
10	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	300	10.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hope Miller	Blissfield	1.0
2	12	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.0
3	12	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	3.2
4	11	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	4.5
5	10	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	5.3
6	11	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	6.3
7	12	Natalie Benitez	Blissfield	7.8
8	11	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	8.5
9	9	Josslyn Handy	Clinton	10.4
10	11	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	11.4
11	9	Mollie Yeager	Blissfield	11.5
12	11	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	13.7
13	12	Briar Wing	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	14.7
14	10	Ella Claus	Clinton	16.2
15	10	Grace Farrell	Clinton	16.7
16	10	Revan Ricker	Blissfield	17.5
17	11	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.5
18	9	Brynn Lusky	Ida	17.9
19	12	Taylor Hoppe	Grass Lake	18.1
20	12	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.1
21	11	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	21.3
22	10	Ava Kruise	Grass Lake	21.9
23	12	Lauren Peppers	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.9
24	12	Riley England	Erie Mason	25.5
25	11	Alexis Colburn	Erie Mason	26.5
26	10	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	27.5
27	11	Aspyn Browning	Grass Lake	28.0
28	11	Sierra DeBarr	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	28.1
29	9	Lana Benware	Ida	28.2
30	9	Haleigh Summers	Adrian Madison	28.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	1.1
2	10	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	2.9
3	12	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	3.2
4	10	Noah Sills	Blissfield	4.3
5	11	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	5.3
6	10	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	8.9
7	11	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	9.0
8	11	David Mills	Erie Mason	9.9
9	12	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	10.8
10	9	Haiden Bennett	Clinton	10.9
11	Sr	Connor Sherwood	Grass Lake	11.8
12	10	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.0
13	11	Porter Ravary	Erie Mason	13.3
14	12	Emmet Van Cleave	Grass Lake	14.8
15	9	Grant Rasor	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	14.8
16	12	Luke Stanley	Ida	17.5
17	10	Brady Bills	Blissfield	18.8
18	12	Brayden Hincher	Erie Mason	19.9
19	10	Beckett Klump	Blissfield	20.4
20	12	Bryson Ballantyne	Adrian Madison	21.9
21	10	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	22.2
22	11	Austin Strand	Clinton	22.7
23	10	Thomas Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.1
24	12	Nathanial Cole	Blissfield	23.2
25	12	Max Foldvary	Monroe St. Mary CC	25.1
26	12	Braedyn Tennant	Blissfield	25.4
27	9	Bryson Pooley	Blissfield	25.9
28	12	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	26.1
29	9	Luke Balaze	Grass Lake	27.4
30	10	John Verlinde	Adrian Madison	27.6

Uncategorized

2025 Regional Projections: Division 4

October 21, 2025October 21, 2025 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Your D4 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 28

Any Big Battles?

Who makes it out of the girls division?

Bellaire and Petoskey St. Michael appear to be favorites. The Guardians are traditionally strong, this year no different, with four girls flashing sub-23 personal bests. The Eagles were Ski Valley champions, reigning over many of the same folk from this region. Ellsworth, Rogers City, and East Jordan also have a chance of qualifying. All were present at Mancelona, where Ellsworth was 2^nd in the Small division. The Lancers were better than the Red Devils at pretty much every spot, though East Jordan found PRs from three of their six girls at the following Ski Valley meet. Rogers City didn’t have a full varsity lineup, but has had five girls in the past two meets. Just having numbers is a positive attribute in the far north of D4.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Bellaire	63	1.3	68	95+
2	Petoskey St. Michael	67	1.8	32	95+
3	East Jordan	83	3.8		40
4	Rogers City	86	4.3		36
5	Ellsworth	86	4.2		20
6	Indian River Inland Lakes	95	5.6

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Petoskey St. Michael	30	1.0	95+	95+
2	Mackinaw City	76	2.2		95+
3	Ellsworth	85	3.3		57
4	East Jordan	86	3.5		46
5	Hale	123	5.3
6	Lincoln-Alcona	129	5.7
7	Onaway	167	7.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	1.7
2	8	Amelia Hoyt	Bellaire	2.7
3	9	Lillian Coen	Ellsworth	3.3
4	11	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	6.3
5	10	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City	6.8
6	9	Josephine Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	7.4
7	11	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	7.8
8	10	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	8.9
9	9	Madalyn Dewey	Bellaire	9.0
10	10	Bristol Skop	East Jordan	9.1
11	11	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	10.9
12	9	Reese Brege	Rogers City	11.3
13	11	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	11.9
14	11	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	13.8
15	9	Grace Campbell	Bellaire	13.9
16	9	Sofia Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	15.8
17	12	Ella Nolan	Petoskey St. Michael	15.8
18	9	Nora Inman	East Jordan	18.6
19	11	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	19.9
20	10	Juliet Inman	East Jordan	20.6
21	11	Margaret Newman	Indian River Inland Lakes	20.9
22	11	Morgan Reh	Bellaire	21.8
23	10	Keri Coolman	Rogers City	23.0
24	11	Ella Sponable	Ellsworth	23.0
25	12	Claire Shooks	Ellsworth	23.9
26	12	Lillyann Cooksey	Onaway	27.6
27	8	Tinly Richards	Boyne Falls	28.1
28	9	Laura Busick	Bellaire	28.7
29	10	Maleeya Hibbard	Ellsworth	28.7
30	9	Helena Ramsey	Petoskey St. Michael	31.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	1.3
2	12	Jack Sharar	Rogers City	2.7
3	12	Cole Brege	Rogers City	5.0
4	12	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	5.4
5	10	Caleb Chamberlin	Petoskey St. Michael	5.5
6	10	Zander Chellis	Ellsworth	6.1
7	12	Cole Upper	Alcona	6.4
8	10	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	8.9
9	11	Jayden Dunnebeck	East Jordan	10.4
10	10	Ethan Sutton	East Jordan	10.8
11	12	Cole Abney	Ellsworth	12.6
12	10	Cole Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	12.8
13	9	Cooper Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	13.5
14	9	Knox Wilson	Mackinaw City	13.7
15	10	Logan Holden	Indian River Inland Lakes	15.0
16	12	Braylon Currie	Mackinaw City	15.1
17	9	Abraham Poel	East Jordan	16.1
18	12	Sean Bernard	Hale	18.9
19	9	Thomas Degrez	Hale	19.4
20	12	Paxton Downing	Hale	20.0
21	12	Ben Strittmatter	Mackinaw City	20.7
22	10	Mikey Sullivan	Mackinaw City	22.2
23	9	Mason Dawson	Ellsworth	23.2
24	7	Clayton VanOrman	Mackinaw City	24.4
25	10	Dominik Kranz	Petoskey St. Michael	26.6
26	9	Deacon Szymoniak	Onaway	26.7
27	9	Bjorn Johnson	Rogers City	26.7
28	12	Darren Boyat	Lincoln-Alcona	27.0
29	11	Jack Puroll	Ellsworth	27.1
30	12	Darren Boyat	Alcona	29.3

REGION 29

Any Big Battles?

The Traverse City area is the Mecca of Division 4 running. The NWC and WMD Conferences are at the center of it. In the League Week Rankings, seven teams along the high Lake Michigan coast were present in the top-27. From those seven squads, three stand out: Maple City Glen Lake, Buckley, and Grand Traverse Academy. Each team has their argument for capturing a regional crown. For the Lakers, it’s their league action, where they placed ahead of Buckley on all three occasions. But Buckley knows that in a big field, their Bears can find success, such as Bluejay, where their top-four were all sub-21:30, enroute to a runner-up finish in the Jays division. One point behind there was GTA. However, at Northern Michigan, the Mustangs were able to avenge that narrow defeat, all five of their scorers hitting sub-22, winning the D4 section. The three are projected within three points of one another, each with a fighter’s chance.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Maple City Glen Lake	62	1.8	40	95+
2	Buckley	63	2.0	35	95+
3	Grand Traverse Academy	65	2.2	25	95+
4	Onekama	91	4.1
5	Bear Lake	107	4.9
6	Mason County Eastern	171	6.0
7	Mesick	188	7.2
8	Pentwater	196	7.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Maple City Glen Lake	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Mesick	88	2.4		95+
3	Leland	94	2.9		81
4	Grand Traverse Academy	112	4.6		9
5	Mason County Eastern	114	5.0		10
6	Buckley	117	5.1
7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	162	7.2
8	Bear Lake	174	7.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Callie Sinke	Onekama	1.5
2	10	Sophia Grinage	Leland	1.6
3	10	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake	4.0
4	9	Ava Higley	Frankfort	4.7
5	11	Addy Zeller	Onekama	5.1
6	12	Mirthe Breuker	Buckley	9.8
7	9	Alyse Cox	Maple City Glen Lake	9.8
8	11	Natalie Burpee	Leland	10.1
9	11	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy	10.9
10	10	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake	10.9
11	12	Alyssa Spicer	Mesick	12.3
12	11	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	14.1
13	11	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	14.7
14	12	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	15.3
15	12	Addison Jarosz	Frankfort	15.3
16	11	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	16.7
17	9	Zakia Wagoner	Onekama	16.7
18	10	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	16.8
19	9	Brooklyn Griffin	Buckley	17.5
20	9	Ellie Wright	Maple City Glen Lake	17.6
21	11	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy	18.5
22	9	Tessa Rutherford	Bear Lake	19.9
23	12	Willa Roth	Frankfort	23.3
24	11	Bailey Case	Pentwater	25.1
25	10	Maria Schwerin	Grand Traverse Academy	27.2
26	12	Addisen Harrand	Buckley	27.5
27	9	Autumn Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	27.6
28	12	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake	28.5
29	11	Tsune DuCheney	Buckley	28.6
30	11	Kaylee Swanson	Buckley	29.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle Redman	Mesick	1.7
2	11	Ty Redman	Mesick	2.6
3	9	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake	2.9
4	11	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	3.2
5	11	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	5.8
6	9	Christian Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	6.2
7	12	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	6.9
8	11	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	10.0
9	10	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	10.3
10	10	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	11.3
11	12	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	12.3
12	10	Carter Suttmann	Leland	12.6
13	9	Ethan Harrand	Buckley	12.8
14	10	Campbell Fedderman	Leland	16.4
15	10	Nolan Koscinski	Bear Lake	16.7
16	10	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	17.4
17	10	Christopher Knudsen	Leland	17.7
18	11	Nate Gorman	Traverse City Christian	18.7
19	9	Easton Harrand	Buckley	19.8
20	11	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	20.5
21	10	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	21.8
22	12	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	24.3
23	9	Kyle Doty	Mesick	25.5
24	9	Jaxon Williams	Grand Traverse Academy	25.7
25	9	Holden Preneta	Leland	26.1
26	12	Isaac Whipple	Grand Traverse Academy	26.3
27	11	Eli Willoughby	Grand Traverse Academy	27.0
28	11	Britton Wheeler	Maple City Glen Lake	27.7
29	11	Mason Howell	Marion	28.9
30	So	Mason Jager	Traverse City Christian	28.9

REGION 30

Any Big Battles?

Both individual races. Both involve the Breckenridge Huskies, a team with its paw prints all over D4 in recent years, featuring a 2019 boys state title and multiple girls teams with regional titles. They’ve got two outstanding individuals – Maizy Matthews and Anthony Rowe. Matthews was undefeated in MSAC action and just comes off a personal best, just slightly above 20-flat. Rowe also hit a personal best at Northern Michigan and found wins in the past two MSAC Jamborees. Runner-up to Rowe in the MSAC Championship was Brady Edwards, who owns the fastest PR in the field, a 16:19 in the early morning at Portage. Projected first on the girls side is the girl of many talents, Claire Long. In the spring, Long was one of D4’s best sprinters, division champ in the 400m and 3^rd in the 200m. She was 4^th here as a freshman, missed much of last season, but is healthy again, ripping a 19:27 at Saginaw County.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	36	1.0	95+	95+
2	Breckenridge	51	2.1		95+
3	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	60	2.9		95+
4	Vestaburg	80	4.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	33	1.0	95+	95+
2	Breckenridge	50	2.0		95+
3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	97	3.2		88
4	Beal City	127	4.4		10
5	Carson City-Crystal	129	4.5
6	Montabella	166	6.4
7	Saginaw Arts & Science	168	6.6
8	Vestaburg	200	8.4
9	Saginaw Nouvel	202	8.5
10	St. Charles	262	10.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel	1.4
2	10	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	1.7
3	10	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton	3.4
4	12	Olive Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	4.9
5	11	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg	6.2
6	9	Maezee Humm	Breckenridge	7.3
7	12	Emma McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	10.1
8	9	Natalie Kettler	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	11.3
9	10	Anna McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	12.0
10	10	Piper Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	12.1
11	12	Laura Bigard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	12.5
12	10	Dilyn Colpean	Merrill	12.8
13	10	Peyton Rohn	Ashley	13.5
14	11	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	14.0
15	10	Taylor Wills	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	14.4
16	12	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	14.9
17	9	Sadie Mueller	St. Charles	16.0
18	11	Greta Schroeder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	17.1
19	9	Amada Price	Fulton	20.1
20	10	Saralynn Shelley	Montabella	20.1
21	12	Phoebe Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	21.1
22	11	Aisly Taylor	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	22.8
23	11	Cora Carver	Vestaburg	22.9
24	9	Kacie Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	25.0
25	11	Kaylie McCracken	Carson City-Crystal	25.9
26	9	Macie Bush	Breckenridge	26.0
27	12	Johanna Hubble	Beal City	26.2
28	9	Lilly Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	28.0
29	11	Ryann Ball	Montabella	28.5
30	11	Ellie Bowerman	Beal City	28.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	1.8
2	11	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	1.8
3	12	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	4.2
4	11	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	5.3
5	11	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	6.0
6	12	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	6.6
7	9	Oliver Burt	Breckenridge	8.2
8	11	Rush Marsden	Fulton	8.3
9	11	Dominick Chiverton	Breckenridge	9.8
10	11	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	11.6
11	12	Nathan Cromar	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	12.6
12	9	Gus Barr	Breckenridge	13.9
13	9	Eli Baker	Coleman	14.3
14	12	Conner Fenton	Beal City	16.2
15	12	Amos Miller	Saginaw Arts & Science	16.3
16	11	Trevor Dolloff	Ashley	18.2
17	10	Logan Funnell	Beal City	18.5
18	9	Abram Fettig	Saginaw Nouvel	19.4
19	12	Caleb Hebert	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	20.3
20	12	Demetrius Gondek	Vestaburg	21.2
21	10	MJ Flowers	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	21.9
22	10	Jonathan Egan	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	22.2
23	11	Payton Crawfis	Carson City-Crystal	23.2
24	9	Simon Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	23.7
25	9	James Sanders	Breckenridge	23.9
26	10	Owen Zeien	Beal City	25.8
27	10	Cayd Wohlscheid	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	27.4
28	12	Bryce White	Montabella	27.9
29	11	Logan Whitmer	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	28.4
30	9	Daniel Malott	Saginaw Nouvel	29.7

REGION 31

Any Big Battles?

Races appear fairly straight forward across the board, top-ten squads such as Gobles’ girls or the Holland Calvary Christian boys as heavy favorites to win. Libby Smith is having herself a year, so the main intrigue falls in the boys individual race. Christian Getz and Noah Schipper have been running 1-2 for the Crusaders on their many escapades. Each found a personal best at Bluejay, racing to 16:23 and 16:25, respectively. Lincoln Laansma, a 2024 All-Stater, owns a slightly faster PB and faced off against the two at Autumn Sunrise, coming in 5 sec. ahead of Getz on the Covenant Christian course.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Gobles	31	1.1	91	95+
2	Martin	39	1.9	9	95+
3	Fowler	83	3.1		87
4	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	98	4.1		13
5	Vermontville Maple Valley	106	4.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Calvary Christian	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	Portland St. Patrick	97	2.4		93
3	Fowler	107	3.2		67
4	Gobles	110	3.5		40
5	Martin	171	5.6
6	Byron Center Zion Christian	174	5.7
7	Tri-Unity Christian	195	7.3
8	Hesperia	201	7.7
9	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	225	9.3
10	Muskegon Catholic Central	228	9.6
11	Vermontville Maple Valley	262	11.1
12	Lawrence	278	11.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Libby Smith	Gobles	1.1
2	11	Veyda Conley	Martin	2.2
3	8	Faith Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	3.6
4	9	Ryleigh Alderink	Holton	4.6
5	11	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	4.7
6	10	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	7.0
7	11	Lindsey Nordyke	Byron Center Zion Christian	7.3
8	11	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	7.7
9	10	Madison Deutschmann	Byron Center Zion Christian	9.5
10	10	Allison Rodgers	Martin	11.1
11	12	Madison Cooley	Gobles	11.9
12	10	DuRae Sage	Martin	14.0
13	11	Sara Schipper	Martin	15.0
14	9	Nora Schultz	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	15.6
15	12	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	15.8
16	9	Riley Bender	Martin	16.4
17	11	Marian Davlin	Portland St. Patrick	16.5
18	10	Laura Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	17.9
19	9	Melanie Jones	Vermontville Maple Valley	19.5
20	10	Addison Tomsic	Gobles	21.3
21	11	Rokhaya Ruhstorfer	Hesperia	21.3
22	12	Olivia Thelen	Fowler	21.4
23	8	Ella Blumberg	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	21.6
24	11	Kerigan Pung	Fowler	24.4
25	9	Emma Dettmann	Martin	24.6
26	12	Izabelle Soper	Vermontville Maple Valley	27.2
27	9	Taylor Cooley	Gobles	28.8
28	10	Marianna Simon	Fowler	28.9
29	12	Alice Kadlecova	Martin	29.3
30	10	Alyssa Sparks	Gobles	29.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	1.9
2	11	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	2.2
3	10	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	2.2
4	11	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	4.1
5	12	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	6.1
6	12	Quentin Smith	Fowler	6.4
7	11	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	8.2
8	11	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	9.7
9	10	Reagan Downing	Holland Calvary Christian	10.5
10	11	Owen Ledebuhr	Holland Calvary Christian	12.2
11	12	Freddie Bierling	Byron Center Zion Christian	12.4
12	12	Lukas Rennells	Muskegon Catholic Central	12.8
13	11	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	13.0
14	11	Nate Ruhstorfer	Hesperia	14.3
15	9	Fletcher Amos	Gobles	14.4
16	10	Cole Ringel	Gobles	17.3
17	11	Landon Miller	Fowler	17.5
18	12	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	17.7
19	9	Levi Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	18.0
20	12	Liam Kamp	Libertas Christian	18.1
21	11	Jadon Dettmann	Martin	21.5
22	11	Jaxon Bunce	Gobles	23.7
23	10	Levi Knoop	Portland St. Patrick	24.8
24	12	Xavier Simon	Fowler	25.7
25	10	Andy Lopez-Garcia	Hesperia	26.4
26	10	Jackson Anderson	Muskegon Catholic Central	26.8
27	9	Dexton Feldpausch	Fowler	27.3
28	10	Levi Collins	Gobles	28.7
29	10	Keannan Marr	Holton	29.3
30	11	Gari Salvador-Garcia	Martin	32.2

REGION 32

Any Big Battles?

The third spot on the girls side.

As they’re a podium contender next week, the Kalamazoo Hackett girls will likely win. The host, Three Oaks River Valley, has improved over the course of the season, especially from Helen Donner, who has dropped 1.5 minutes from her freshman best. White Pigeon was the third qualifier from 2024 and Battle Creek St. Philip had three girls hit their season/lifetime best at the Battle Creek City Meet.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	17	1.0	95+	95+
2	Three Oaks River Valley	67	2.0		95+
3	Battle Creek St. Philip	86	3.3		74
4	White Pigeon	90	3.8		25
5	Eau Claire	104	4.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Three Oaks River Valley	53	2.0		95+
3	White Pigeon	89	3.1		87
4	New Buffalo	115	4.5		8
5	Athens	122	4.9		5
6	Eau Claire	137	5.6
7	Colon	161	6.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.2
2	11	Kiera Piper	Kalamazoo Hackett	2.6
3	12	Rowan Allen	Mendon	3.0
4	11	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	4.1
5	12	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	5.9
6	10	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett	7.3
7	10	Abigail Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	8.6
8	11	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	9.3
9	11	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	9.8
10	12	Rachel Byler	White Pigeon	10.0
11	12	Bethany Carpenter	Kalamazoo Hackett	11.5
12	11	Harper Bowman	New Buffalo	11.8
13	11	Emmy Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	13.5
14	11	Sarah Stemaly	Athens	14.7
15	10	Brittney Hernandez	Three Oaks River Valley	14.9
16	9	Annabell Bent	Marcellus	16.3
17	9	Marnie Wright	Battle Creek St. Philip	18.0
18	12	Sandra Alavrez	Eau Claire	18.8
19	9	Belle Noga	Colon	18.9
20	12	Yuri Ramirez	Eau Claire	20.9
21	9	Soni Stahlschmidt	New Buffalo	21.5
22	11	Elizabeth Martin	White Pigeon	23.5
23	12	Kaitlyn Nealis	Decatur	23.8
24	12	Elliana Fenstermaker	Heritage Christian Academy	24.1
25	10	Maia Cavanaugh	Heritage Christian Academy	26.1
26	11	Elsa Strenge	Battle Creek St. Philip	26.1
27	12	Betzabé Villa	Three Oaks River Valley	27.5
28	12	Alexis Slater	Athens	28.6
29	12	Martha Tran	Decatur	30.0
30	11	Aura Perez	Colon	30.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.0
2	12	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	2.6
3	12	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	3.2
4	9	Mason Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	3.4
5	12	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	6.1
6	11	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	6.4
7	10	Kadin McGee	Decatur	8.3
8	11	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	8.6
9	10	Joseph Edwards	New Buffalo	9.7
10	11	Max Barron	Tekonsha	11.8
11	9	Lukasz Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	12.3
12	12	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	14.3
13	11	Kyron Christner	Mendon	14.8
14	10	Nathaneal Karakula	Heritage Christian Academy	15.9
15	11	Colin Gallagher	Kalamazoo Hackett	17.4
16	10	Seth Crown	Heritage Christian Academy	17.6
17	9	Henry Young	Kalamazoo Hackett	18.6
18	12	David Lane	White Pigeon	19.9
19	11	Alejandro Lemus	Eau Claire	22.1
20	10	Leo Lemieux	New Buffalo	23.6
21	11	Jay Bronsink	Athens	23.7
22	12	Parker Volstorf	Three Oaks River Valley	24.9
23	12	Ethan O’Connor	Athens	25.1
24	11	Aiden Jackson	White Pigeon	25.7
25	12	Damien Martinez	Kalamazoo Hackett	25.9
26	9	Mike Hernandez	Three Oaks River Valley	26.0
27	11	Dilan Vargas	Eau Claire	26.3
28	12	Lucas Dudley	Mendon	28.0
29	12	Dalton Williams	Colon	30.1
30	10	William Throw	White Pigeon	30.4

REGION 33

Any Big Battles?

Hard to pick between the girls and boys races.

Both feature a rising Novi Christian Academy, both of the Warrior outfits having a breakout performance at Larry Steeb and in the MIAC Championship. Genesee Christian has moved into the 3^rd spot in the girls race, mainly thanks to the emergence of Tori Ferguson, who has found the 21’s after an early season string of 23 min.+ performances. Webberville’s boys also had a strong showing at Larry Steeb, a mere 20 points behind Whitmore Lake. The Spartans rely on a very strong top-three, all under 17:45. That may be more advantageous further down the line, but definitely an aid here.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Whitmore Lake	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Lansing Christian	62	2.0		95+
3	Genesee Christian Academy	99	3.4		62
4	Novi Christian Academy	103	3.7		36
5	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	124	5.1
6	Dansville	134	5.7
7	Byron	180	7.4
8	Webberville	182	7.6

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Whitmore Lake	45	1.0	95+	95+
2	Genesee Christian Academy	77	2.5		92
3	Webberville	81	3.0		72
4	Novi Christian Academy	92	3.6		36
5	Lansing Christian	125	5.3
6	Dansville	142	6.0
7	Byron	156	6.8
8	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	177	7.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.1
2	12	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	2.9
3	10	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake	3.3
4	11	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	6.9
5	12	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	6.9
6	12	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	7.3
7	10	Andi Kirkman	Genesee Christian Academy	8.5
8	12	Delaney Richardson	Byron	9.1
9	10	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	10.4
10	9	Cassa Minnis	Dansville	10.4
11	11	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian	10.6
12	10	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	13.0
13	12	Tori Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	13.6
14	11	Evelyn McIndoe	Novi Christian Academy	14.0
15	10	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian	14.1
16	12	Alaina Driver	Potterville	15.2
17	12	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	17.2
18	12	Nadia Barnes	Novi Christian Academy	20.2
19	11	Makenna Bush	Lansing Christian	20.5
20	11	Caroline Darrah	Whitmore Lake	22.1
21	12	Bree DeLano	Dansville	22.7
22	12	Evie Kirkman	Genesee Christian Academy	23.6
23	11	Natasha Mendez	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	24.0
24	10	Mariah Diaz	Lansing Christian	24.9
25	11	Amy Yong	Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner	25.2
26	11	Jane Wilder	Webberville	26.1
27	10	Ariana Stewart	Genesee Christian Academy	28.1
28	12	Yazmine Beverly	Webberville	29.0
29	9	Ella Baron	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	31.0
30	12	Abigail Yatooma	Novi Christian Academy	31.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.2
2	12	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	3.8
3	10	Nathan West	Webberville	3.9
4	12	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	5.1
5	10	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian Academy	5.3
6	12	Ben Young	Lansing Christian	8.1
7	11	Brody Jeruzal	Ann Arbor Christian	8.3
8	9	Gabe Schultz	Genesee Christian Academy	10.1
9	12	Gavin Howery	Webberville	10.2
10	10	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	11.3
11	12	Nathan Camilleri	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	13.5
12	11	Kasey Springer	Whitmore Lake	14.2
13	10	Jackson Onofre	Novi Christian Academy	14.8
14	12	Ethan West	Webberville	15.6
15	10	Leo Weaver	Whitmore Lake	16.2
16	11	Joseph White	Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner	16.4
17	11	Benjamin Fox	Whitmore Lake	16.7
18	9	Carter Castilla	Dansville	18.0
19	10	Richard Lewis	Whitmore Lake	20.3
20	11	Brayden Steele	Byron	20.4
21	12	Elijah Ozenbaugh	Whitmore Lake	20.8
22	10	Evan Klish	Novi Christian Academy	23.5
23	10	Reid Hacker	Dansville	24.0
24	9	Ryan Stewart	Genesee Christian Academy	25.9
25	11	Luke Meyer	Lansing Christian	27.6
26	11	Jonah Spencer	Byron	28.5
27	11	Halston Hooley	Byron	28.6
28	9	Jack Bell	Novi Christian Academy	30.2
29	12	Matthew Howery	Webberville	30.5
30	9	Kai Hopkins	Potterville	30.8

REGION 34

Any Big Battles?

Gotta be Petersburg-Summerfield vs. Hudson. Despite the small 35-mile separation between the schools, the two haven’t faced off against each other this fall. What I can say is that both sets of girls have had some of their better team efforts of late. For the Tigers, it was at their home invite, where they were 3^rd in the lower division. Last week, Petersburg-Summerfield was able to capture the TCC Championship. Placing four girls in the top-six was dominating enough early to clinch the victory no matter what happened late. Present there was a common opponent between the two – Sand Creek, a team that bested Hudson at Hudson Booster.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	24	1.0	95+	95+
2	Concord	50	2.0		95+
3	Petersburg-Summerfield	92	3.3		75
4	Hudson	98	3.8		25
5	Manchester	142	5.1
6	Pittsford	152	5.9
7	Jackson Preparatory	171	7.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	18	1.0	95+	95+
2	Manchester	85	2.3		95+
3	Concord	91	2.8		94
4	Jackson Preparatory	107	3.9		9
5	Hudson	134	5.0
6	Petersburg-Summerfield	170	6.4
7	Addison	174	6.8
8	Vandercook Lake	187	7.8
9	Reading	233	9.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	1.3
2	9	Audrey Pyle	Concord	3.8
3	9	Heather Morris	Hillsdale Academy	6.1
4	11	Haley Stimer	Concord	6.4
5	9	Eliza Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	6.5
6	12	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	6.7
7	12	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy	7.2
8	11	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	7.8
9	9	Audrey Rinehart	Concord	9.0
10	11	Maren Gehrke	Hillsdale Academy	9.2
11	12	Mary Schlueter	Hillsdale Academy	9.2
12	12	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield	10.1
13	10	Allison Ost	Petersburg-Summerfield	11.6
14	12	Cieara Barrett	Concord	14.8
15	10	Abby Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	16.1
16	10	Ellie Woodring	Addison	16.6
17	12	Grace Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	16.6
18	12	Naika Rath	Hudson	17.8
19	10	Mya Barrett	Concord	18.5
20	11	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	19.2
21	9	Braelynn Thorrez	Concord	19.3
22	9	Danaja Williams	Pittsford	22.8
23	11	Caroline Mason	Manchester	23.0
24	12	Taylor Kopin	Hudson	23.3
25	11	Teagan Clarke	Manchester	26.5
26	11	Miley Rising	Hudson	26.6
27	9	Elizabeth Falater	Reading	27.4
28	12	Valorie Hieber	Manchester	27.6
29	11	Hannah Ryan	Concord	28.3
30	12	Gabriela Harvel	Jackson Preparatory	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	1.0
2	12	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy	3.3
3	11	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	4.1
4	12	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	4.8
5	10	Peter Winn	Hillsdale Academy	5.6
6	12	Grant Johnson	Manchester	6.8
7	11	Alec Dodak	Manchester	7.3
8	12	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory	7.3
9	12	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord	9.1
10	9	Henry Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	10.0
11	12	Paul Herendeen	Concord	11.4
12	11	Drake Fenstermaker	Camden-Frontier	12.0
13	11	Carson Van Sickle	Hillsdale Academy	13.9
14	9	Blake Aube	Hudson	15.0
15	12	Dallas Swaenepoel	Vandercook Lake	15.0
16	10	Jacob Tatsak	Adrian Lenawee Christian	15.4
17	11	Keaton Smith	Concord	16.6
18	11	David Bauer	Morenci	20.1
19	9	Brayden Patrick	Jackson Preparatory	22.1
20	9	Asher Church	Hillsdale Will Carleton	22.9
21	11	Mohamed Adow	Morenci	23.3
22	9	Braydn Patrick	Jackson Preparatory	23.4
23	10	David Arbogast	Vandercook Lake	23.8
24	So	Tony Gudakunst	Addison	24.4
25	9	Connor Evans	Addison	24.8
26	11	Michael Navitskis	Manchester	26.6
27	12	Justin Gale	Manchester	27.3
28	9	Thomas Bastian	Jackson Preparatory	27.9
29	11	Colin Brown	Petersburg-Summerfield	28.2
30	10	Jericho Borck	Hudson	32.4

REGION 35

Any Big Battles?

You can always find a close battle between these Thumb teams. This year’s version could be for the third girls qualifier, between Dryden and Harbor Beach. The Pirates have been on their best behavior in October, hitting their highest team average at Ubly, then following that up with a 2^nd place finish in the BTC Black. Winner however, was Dryden in the BTC Blue/Red (which color, I have no clue). The two have faced off this fall, won by Harbor Beach, although Dryden wasn’t able to field a full squad. Luckily, the Cardinals have added to their lineup and are now in the discussion to advance.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ubly	49	1.1	91	95+
2	Kingston	63	2.2	9	95+
3	Harbor Beach	76	3.2		66
4	Dryden	80	3.6		37
5	Kinde North Huron	122	5.3
6	Brown City	128	5.7
7	Marlette	154	7.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Dryden	79	1.5	54	95+
2	Ubly	81	1.6	46	95+
3	Unionville-Sebewaing	107	3.1		83
4	Harbor Beach	134	4.8		7
5	Brown City	142	5.5		8
6	Mayville	150	6.1
7	Marlette	153	6.2
8	Kingston	168	7.6
9	Vassar	197	8.9
10	Deckerville	232	10.8
11	Caseville	237	11.0
12	Peck	238	11.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Norah Kiley	Kingston	2.0
2	12	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	2.4
3	12	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	3.2
4	12	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	4.4
5	10	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	4.8
6	10	Payton King	Kingston	6.7
7	10	Claire Wright	Dryden	8.2
8	10	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	8.9
9	12	Madison Prowse	Brown City	9.4
10	11	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	9.5
11	10	Myah Peruski	Ubly	11.7
12	9	Ella Gustner	Dryden	13.7
13	9	Rachel Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	15.2
14	10	Brooklyn Morell	Ubly	15.7
15	10	Esther Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	16.2
16	10	Taylor Geiger	Ubly	16.2
17	11	Aspen Jimkoski	Kinde North Huron	16.6
18	10	Emily Meek	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.0
19	9	Isabella West	Mayville	19.1
20	9	Kayden Parker	Harbor Beach	20.7
21	12	HarLee Leasher	Brown City	21.0
22	10	Sophia Lawrence	Memphis	22.8
23	11	Lani Dimock	Harbor Beach	24.7
24	10	Allison Steeb	Deckerville	26.7
25	11	Elizabeth Schultz	Peck	26.8
26	10	Peyten Albertson	Marlette	27.0
27	9	Lyla Holdwick	Harbor Beach	27.3
28	10	Alexa Robbins	Harbor Beach	27.9
29	10	Kayle Talaski	Kinde North Huron	30.4
30	12	Loryn Nowiski	Harbor Beach	31.5

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	1.1
2	12	Carson Burgess	Brown City	2.0
3	11	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	5.1
4	12	Logan Romain	Dryden	5.1
5	9	Weston Guza	Ubly	6.4
6	12	Gianino Perna	Marlette	7.0
7	10	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	7.3
8	11	Brennan Robinson	Kingston	7.5
9	12	Michael Walsh	Ubly	7.6
10	9	Lucas Volmering	Ubly	8.9
11	10	Maksim Kohl	Unionville-Sebewaing	13.1
12	11	Thijs Van Rijn	Kingston	13.7
13	10	Wyatt Blohm	Vassar	14.1
14	12	Evan Gobie	Deckerville	14.2
15	12	Kale Beemer	Brown City	16.9
16	10	Jaycen Roberts	Dryden	18.8
17	12	Lincoln Haag	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.9
18	10	Brayden Kirkpatrick	Marlette	19.1
19	12	Tyler Pruitt	Mayville	20.0
20	9	Steven Budreau	Mayville	21.7
21	10	Lukas Brown	Unionville-Sebewaing	23.8
22	11	Beckett Hagen	Ubly	24.0
23	11	Wesley Kosinski	Kinde North Huron	24.2
24	12	Brenden Peter	Dryden	26.3
25	12	Jacob Campbell	New Life Christian Academy	27.2
26	10	Zachary Crumby	Unionville-Sebewaing	27.4
27	11	Tyler Roberts	Dryden	29.2
28	12	Dylan Lasher	Dryden	29.8
29	11	Donovan Glasgow	Capac	30.4
30	10	Brendan Aeder	Unionville-Sebewaing	30.6

REGION 36

Any Big Battles?

Unlike a few of the other matchups, Southfield Christian and Austin Catholic have met with a full varsity squad. The issue is that was a lifetime ago, way back in September. At that OCS Small School Invite, Austin Catholic put together a 16 pt. margin on Southfield Christian. In the six weeks that have passed SC’s Eagles have added impactful girls and had a few drop more than a minute from their Eastwood Beach effort. Speaking of Eastwood, that’s where the AC frontrunner Cassidy Bowers was recently able to place All-County and grab a lifetime best.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Royal Oak Shrine	34	1.0	95+	95+
2	Lutheran Westland	47	2.0		95+
3	Austin Catholic	72	3.5		54
4	Southfield Christian	73	3.5		46

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Royal Oak Shrine	44	1.0	95+	95+
2	Riverview Gabriel Richard	65	2.4		95+
3	Lutheran Westland	69	2.6		95+
4	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	109	4.0
5	Allen Park Cabrini	126	5.1
6	Southfield Christian	136	6.1
7	Austin Catholic	144	6.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ella Lamb	Royal Oak Shrine	1.7
2	12	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland	2.6
3	10	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	3.1
4	10	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	3.3
5	10	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland	5.6
6	12	Maya Ferguson	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	8.3
7	11	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	8.5
8	11	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	10.4
9	10	Ella Daly	Royal Oak Shrine	10.7
10	9	Yadhira Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	11.3
11	11	Josephine Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	11.7
12	9	Lilianna Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	11.7
13	11	Ella Clarke	Southfield Christian	12.5
14	9	Katherine Riches	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	15.1
15	9	Rose O’Connor	Austin Catholic	16.5
16	9	Cecila Bomberski	Royal Oak Shrine	17.4
17	10	Nora Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	17.4
18	11	Caramia DeGiulio	Southfield Christian	17.6
19	11	Kassie Kozlo	Allen Park Cabrini	18.2
20	11	Shelby Theut	Austin Catholic	18.5
21	9	Josephine Wesley	Riverview Gabriel Richard	19.5
22	11	Ellie Elliott	Lutheran Westland	19.6
23	11	Avery Trepod	Southfield Christian	24.8
24	12	Kathleen Colby	Royal Oak Shrine	25.5
25	11	Faith Dawson	Southfield Christian	26.0
26	9	Camille Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	26.1
27	10	Violet Hill	Birmingham Roeper	26.5
28	11	Elsa Jeromin	Southfield Christian	28.1
29	9	Abigail VanHooser	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	28.2
30	10	Caitlyn Siler	New Haven Merritt Academy	29.5

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	1.0
2	12	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	3.2
3	11	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	3.8
4	12	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	4.1
5	12	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	4.6
6	9	Gavin Bowers	Austin Catholic	5.6
7	11	Silas Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	8.1
8	12	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	8.2
9	11	Micah Arlow	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	10.4
10	10	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine	11.4
11	12	Joseph Stevens	Southfield Christian	11.6
12	10	Liam Knuth	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	12.0
13	12	Mason Johnson	Lutheran Westland	12.6
14	12	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	14.8
15	12	Dominic Barretto	Riverview Gabriel Richard	15.6
16	12	Seth Witte	Lutheran Westland	16.1
17	10	Declan O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	17.4
18	11	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.1
19	12	Ren Yamamoto	Birmingham Roeper	19.5
20	11	Christian Brash	Allen Park Cabrini	20.6
21	12	Lamark Johnson	Southfield Christian	20.9
22	10	Dominic DeVeny	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	23.3
23	12	Luke Harrington	Riverview Gabriel Richard	23.7
24	9	Luke Robinson	Royal Oak Shrine	23.8
25	12	Andrew Abramowicz	Lutheran Westland	25.7
26	11	Gabe Shaffer	Royal Oak Shrine	26.1
27	12	Benjamin Walls	Lutheran Westland	27.5
28	10	Nolan Mazur	Riverview Gabriel Richard	27.9
29	10	Ethan Wielgat	Royal Oak Shrine	29.7
30	12	Theodore Campbell	Riverview Gabriel Richard	29.8

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSBOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSGIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONSBOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

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GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSBOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSGIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONSBOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 19

Any Big Battles?

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GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
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GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS