Uncategorized – Page 12 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.

With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D1 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

I have to warn you. All of the writeups below concern the boys’ races. It’s not as if I don’t care about the girls, I think my volume of work over the years more than speaks for itself. But in many cases, the places appear to be set in stone. In others, the guys projections are more chaotic.

What this also means is that when an unexpected win or qualifier occurs, it’ll be the story of that region or even the division. Check back on Sunday to see who defied the math.

REGION 1

Any Big Battles?

Can a Hudsonville or a Forest Hills Northern pull the upset?

All year, both Grand Haven and Rockford have been a bit of a step above. Their team averages per meet are among the highest of the four teams. At Portage, the two squads finished ahead of Hudsonville and FHN.

But the gap is closing with Hudsonville, who in the OK Red Championship, were 15 points back of Rockford and a mere 6 away from Grand Haven. All of the Eagle scorers found a PR on the Riverside Park course, a definite boost heading into regional action.

Forest Hills Northern will hope for the same breakthrough, having all of their OK White Championship scorers at 17-flat or below.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hudsonville	49	1.3	77	95+
2	Jenison	64	2.2	18	95+
3	Rockford	69	2.6	5	95+
4	Forest Hills Northern	96	3.9		7
5	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	138	5.3
6	Grand Haven	154	5.8
7	Grandville	205	7.1
8	Greenville	234	8.4
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	235	8.5
10	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	273	10.4
11	Grand Rapids Northview	276	10.5
12	Grand Rapids Union	393	12.0
13	Wyoming	424	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jenison	60	1.0	95+	95+
2	Rockford	94	2.6		88
3	Grand Haven	98	3.0		75
4	Hudsonville	114	4.2		28
5	Grandville	123	5.0
6	Forest Hills Northern	128	5.3		6
7	Grand Rapids Northview	160	7.0
8	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	205	8.4
9	Greenville	211	8.6
10	Muskegon Mona Shores	259	10.0
11	Grand Rapids Union	326	11.0
12	Wyoming	371	12.2
13	Muskegon	402	13.4
14	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	406	13.5

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	1.5
2	9	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville	2.9
3	11	Paige McMeans	Jenison	3.1
4	11	Daisy Cox	Rockford	5.4
5	10	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	7.4
6	12	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	7.5
7	11	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	8.0
8	10	Madeline Aleisa	Jenison	8.9
9	9	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville	11.2
10	11	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.6
11	10	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	12.1
12	10	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	13.9
13	12	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	14.0
14	12	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	14.2
15	9	Emma Storey	Jenison	16.7
16	11	Rae Defrang	Rockford	17.2
17	10	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	17.3
18	12	Mackenzie Conner	Jenison	18.3
19	12	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	19.9
20	10	Mackenzie VanStensel	Grand Rapids Northview	20.4
21	9	Gwyn Faber	Forest Hills Northern	21.1
22	12	Andrea Schwartz	Jenison	23.1
23	12	Macy Guikema	Jenison	23.5
24	10	Amelia Danian	Forest Hills Northern	24.8
25	9	Ariana Elzinga	Grandville	25.3
26	11	Abigail Simpson	Forest Hills Northern	25.7
27	9	Sidney Eaton	Hudsonville	27.0
28	10	Claire Watson	Rockford	27.8
29	9	Camryn Gervais	Grand Haven	29.6
30	11	Reese Defrang	Rockford	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caden Livermore	Grandville	1.3
2	11	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	1.8
3	12	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	5.3
4	12	Kelton Hoover	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	6.5
5	11	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	7.2
6	11	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	7.9
7	10	Chase Sherman	Jenison	9.6
8	12	Liam Bingman	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	10.1
9	12	Jacob McDaniel	Grandville	10.2
10	12	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	11.0
11	10	Carter Cooke	Jenison	11.2
12	11	Ethan Burks	Jenison	12.1
13	12	Rhys Holmes	Grand Rapids Northview	16.3
14	10	Luke Bultman	Rockford	16.4
15	12	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.6
16	12	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	16.6
17	12	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	17.9
18	12	Austin Van Ek	Hudsonville	18.0
19	10	Caleb Conner	Jenison	18.3
20	12	Philip Chamberlain	Forest Hills Northern	19.2
21	9	Archer Verhage	Grand Haven	19.6
22	11	Noah Watson	Rockford	20.0
23	9	Sullivan Oberg	Jenison	21.3
24	12	Gabriel Williams	Forest Hills Northern	21.6
25	12	Myles Hendel	Jenison	25.1
26	12	John Truong	Forest Hills Northern	26.2
27	12	Simon Faber	Forest Hills Northern	26.8
28	12	Lucas Dykhouse	Hudsonville	29.4
29	12	Aidan Vermeulen	Hudsonville	30.8
30	11	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	30.9

REGION 2

Any Big Battles?

One of the more chaotic and top-heavy regions you’ll see.

Midland is probably safe. They’ve got seven guys that could score on any of the other teams. Milford is Milford, racing on occasion and being a constant bane of my existence with regard to ratings. Toeing the line on such few instances means that the LVC and Oakland County Championships weigh heavily. The Mavericks won the latter in a rout, beating the closest competition by nearly 40 points. Yet, there’s a world where they don’t advance out of this banger.

Why? Because Traverse City West, Grand Blanc, and Traverse City Central all have teams with top-fives under 17-flat. Central may be a bit underrated, as the most recent major meet for the Trojans involved an upset win over West. The Titans might need to capture a bit of their early-season magic, such as a Pete Moss race where their 4^th and 5^th runners hit PRs. And Grand Blanc KNOWS they can find their best when traveling to mid-Michigan, as the Bobcats can point to a Bluejay race where they cleared TC Central by 45 points.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City West	68	1.2	86	95+
2	Hartland	90	2.0	12	95+
3	Traverse City Central	119	3.4		60
4	H.H. Dow	128	3.8		36
5	Bay City Western	155	5.1		6
6	Grand Blanc	177	6.4
7	Mt. Pleasant	198	7.4
8	Lapeer	199	7.6
9	Highland-Milford	225	8.8
10	Holly	245	9.9
11	Midland	267	11.0
12	Davison	276	11.4
13	Alpena	366	13.5
14	Flushing	371	13.6
15	Saginaw Heritage	420	15.0
16	Swartz Creek	500	16.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Midland	67	1.2	81	95+
2	Highland-Milford	95	2.9	9	69
3	Traverse City West	106	3.5	6	43
4	Grand Blanc	106	3.5		49
5	Traverse City Central	117	4.0		39
6	Saginaw Heritage	173	6.6
7	Davison	177	6.8
8	Holly	190	7.5
9	Alpena	260	9.9
10	Hartland	261	9.9
11	Midland Dow	271	10.3
12	Mt. Pleasant	345	12.6
13	Flushing	347	12.6
14	Lapeer	382	13.8
15	Swartz Creek	436	15.1
16	Bay City Western	479	15.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Emilia Garces	H.H. Dow	1.4
2	11	Maddie Lindley	Holly	2.3
3	11	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	2.9
4	12	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	5.1
5	9	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland	5.5
6	11	Ava Goodman	Hartland	9.4
7	12	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	10.5
8	9	Cecelia Jacobson	Traverse City Central	12.5
9	11	Lydia Powers	Lapeer	13.2
10	12	Lilah Weber	Lapeer	13.3
11	12	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West	13.7
12	10	Julia Bambach	Holly	14.2
13	9	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western	14.9
14	11	Micali Teeple	Grand Blanc	19.0
15	12	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	19.4
16	9	Lilly Pierce	Mt. Pleasant	20.0
17	12	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	21.3
18	10	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	22.5
19	12	Peyton Tucker	Traverse City West	23.3
20	10	Jessa Skonieczny	Mt. Pleasant	23.5
21	9	Autumn Luick	H.H. Dow	23.6
22	12	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	24.2
23	12	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	24.6
24	10	Leighton Basile	Traverse City West	25.1
25	9	Brielle Bastionell	Hartland	26.3
26	10	Kelly Comfort	Traverse City Central	27.0
27	11	Taylor Vogel	Highland-Milford	28.6
28	11	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	28.6
29	12	Mallory Wilcox	Bay City Western	29.9
30	10	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	31.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.7
2	10	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	4.5
3	9	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc	5.2
4	12	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	5.9
5	10	Alexander Allen	Alpena	6.6
6	11	Broden Ladd	Holly	7.1
7	11	Cameron Cochran	Midland	9.4
8	11	Evan Fox	Traverse City Central	9.7
9	12	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	12.0
10	11	Logan Gessford	Midland	12.0
11	12	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	13.3
12	11	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	14.9
13	12	Andrew Worsley	Midland	15.2
14	12	Luke James	Midland	16.3
15	12	Logan Bellinger	Midland	16.6
16	10	Elliot King	Midland	20.2
17	12	William Dean	Grand Blanc	21.2
18	12	Gannon Wheeler	Highland-Milford	21.3
19	12	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	22.6
20	12	Noah Linstrom	Davison	22.7
21	10	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	22.9
22	10	Cole Heikka	Holly	23.2
23	12	Griffin Good	Flushing	26.1
24	11	Levi Mayer	Davison	28.2
25	12	Maximillian Bladzik	Grand Blanc	29.2
26	11	Connor O’Reilly	Davison	30.5
27	9	Austin Hughes	Traverse City West	30.7
28	9	Aiden Doggett	Highland-Milford	30.8
29	11	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	30.9
30	12	Charlie Smith	Grand Blanc	31.0

REGION 3

Any Big Battles?

This is the chaos region.

From the League Week Rankings, you have:

#3 Lowell – RCA Champions
#4 Kalamazoo Central – SMAC Champions
#10 Portage Central – home course advantage
#14 Caledonia – OK Green Champions
#15 Zeeland West – OK Black Champions
#18 East Kentwood – OK Red Champions
#21 Holland West Ottawa – winner of the first OK Red Jamboree

All championship squads or those who’ve shown they can race at a championship level.

There are always scenarios where the 4^th team has 4 boys in the top-20, but when a field is so elite, that percentage is quite low. As a result, at least four deserving teams will have their season end.

At leeeeeast most of these squads were at Portage, which can give you a picture of how this chaos might play out:

Or it can point to a scenario where Portage Central, Caledonia, and East Kentwood use revenge as a factor in advancing through this utter gauntlet.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland West Ottawa	44	1.0	95+	95+
2	Portage Central	78	2.0		95+
3	Zeeland East	103	3.0		95+
4	Zeeland West	133	4.0
5	Byron Center	186	6.2
6	Portage Northern	190	6.2
7	Caledonia	192	6.4
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	217	8.3
9	Forest Hills Central	220	8.8
10	Battle Creek Lakeview	241	9.9
11	East Kentwood	250	10.6
12	Lowell	306	12.1
13	Mattawan	331	12.7
14	Kalamazoo Central	402	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Central	74	1.5	57	95+
2	Lowell	77	1.7	42	95+
3	Zeeland West	129	4.2		34
4	Caledonia	133	4.6		39
5	East Kentwood	136	4.7		12
6	Portage Central	141	5.2		16
7	Holland West Ottawa	156	6.4
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	194	8.4
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	201	8.6
10	Mattawan	232	10.0
11	Forest Hills Central	273	11.0
12	Byron Center	320	12.2
13	Portage Northern	352	13.1
14	Zeeland East	375	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	1.7
2	10	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	3.1
3	12	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	3.2
4	12	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	3.7
5	11	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	5.0
6	10	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	8.0
7	12	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	8.3
8	12	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	8.4
9	10	Avery Scott	Portage Central	9.4
10	10	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	10.2
11	11	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	10.8
12	9	Hailey Sieler	Forest Hills Central	10.8
13	10	Caralyn Elkins	Zeeland West	12.0
14	10	Julia Welc	Portage Central	16.0
15	11	Ella Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	16.6
16	12	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	18.3
17	12	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	18.4
18	11	Akaela Daman	Caledonia	18.5
19	12	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	21.5
20	12	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	21.6
21	10	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	22.7
22	9	Tessa Albrecht	Zeeland West	23.5
23	10	Chloe Powers	Holland West Ottawa	24.2
24	11	Kaila Keeler	Zeeland West	25.7
25	11	Delilah Marquez	Holland West Ottawa	26.3
26	9	Londyn Schmidt	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	27.6
27	9	Maddison Guy	Portage Central	28.9
28	12	Evie Kleinheksel	Zeeland West	29.7
29	12	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	30.9
30	11	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	30.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	3.0
2	11	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	3.8
3	12	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	4.5
4	11	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	5.4
5	12	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	5.8
6	11	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
7	9	Avi Elabed	Lowell	8.6
8	12	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	9.1
9	12	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	10.1
10	12	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.7
11	12	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	12.6
12	12	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	14.3
13	10	Bennett Snapper	Caledonia	14.8
14	12	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	16.9
15	11	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	18.1
16	10	Karson Lewis	Battle Creek Lakeview	18.7
17	12	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	19.1
18	9	Tanner Smith	Zeeland West	20.5
19	12	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	20.8
20	12	Rob Dodd	Zeeland West	21.4
21	10	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	25.4
22	12	Gavin O’Meara	Forest Hills Central	25.7
23	12	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	26.1
24	12	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	26.3
25	12	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	26.9
26	11	Cody Bromley	Lowell	27.5
27	10	Elijah Demlow	Battle Creek Lakeview	27.7
28	9	Tyler Bromley	Lowell	29.4
29	11	Boston Wilkinson	Holland West Ottawa	31.6
30	10	Sean Thompson	Caledonia	32.6

REGION 4

Any Big Battles?

Brighton is the traditional power throughout time. Team Champs in 2019 and 2021, typically always a top-ten team in D1. Ann Arbor Skyline is a program finding its footing. The ups and downs of the new school are generally trending up and you can see where the vision will lead in the near future. Grand Ledge is having the year, a band of upperclassmen making memories and winning championships.

Centering around Brighton, there are a few common competitions. One major one was in early September on the Averill hills, the Bulldogs having the upper hand over the Comets. The difference there was most evident at the fifth spot, Brighton holding a 10 sec. advantage over their GL counterparts.

Even though I think the Averill ratings are a bit undervalued, that wasn’t the best effort of the year from either team. For Grand Ledge, that might be from Bluejay, where all five scorers were sub-16:35 and for Brighton, that could be Gabriel Richard, where it was all orange under 16:15.

Neither of the squads have had the absolute high of Skyline, who at Holly were able to defeat a crowd of ranked teams. Climbing the Holly hills were a pack of Eagles, their first four ripping 16:30’s and below. It’s been awhile since they’ve reached that level, but it exists.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Brighton	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	65	2.3		95+
3	Okemos	74	2.7		95+
4	Grand Ledge	134	4.4
5	Howell	149	5.5
6	Mason	156	6.0
7	Dexter	169	6.9
8	East Lansing	175	7.3
9	South Lyon	246	9.3
10	South Lyon East	265	9.7
11	Holt	327	11.1
12	Jackson	346	11.9
13	Lansing Waverly	432	13.0
14	Lansing Everett	443	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Ledge	67	1.7	49	95+
2	Brighton	67	1.8	37	95+
3	Ann Arbor Skyline	80	2.6	14	95+
4	Dexter	138	4.7
5	East Lansing	150	5.8
6	Howell	150	5.9
7	Okemos	151	5.9
8	Holt	176	7.8
9	South Lyon East	256	9.1
10	South Lyon	286	10.1
11	Mason	302	10.8
12	Lansing Waverly	364	12.1
13	Lansing Everett	400	13.3
14	Jackson	405	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Rachel Smith	Okemos	1.1
2	12	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	2.9
3	10	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	3.5
4	12	October Harns	Okemos	4.1
5	12	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	6.8
6	10	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	8.1
7	12	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	10.1
8	12	Courtney Lince	Brighton	10.6
9	11	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	10.6
10	12	Selena White	Brighton	12.9
11	10	Ruby Petee	Mason	13.0
12	11	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.7
13	10	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.2
14	10	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	15.6
15	12	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	18.0
16	12	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos	18.1
17	11	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	19.0
18	9	Brooke Wallace	Howell	19.2
19	12	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	19.7
20	11	Ashley Lubowicki	Brighton	19.8
21	12	Adrienne Stewart	Ann Arbor Skyline	20.2
22	9	Olive DiMassa	Howell	20.3
23	12	Annie Hamilton	Brighton	23.4
24	10	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	25.3
25	9	Ava Montero	Grand Ledge	25.7
26	11	Anna Halliday	Howell	26.6
27	11	Morgan Allen	Mason	26.7
28	10	Violet Olley	Ann Arbor Skyline	27.3
29	11	Gwen Stotts-Walshe	Ann Arbor Skyline	28.2
30	12	Amelia Cribbins	Dexter	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.4
2	12	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.7
3	11	Coen Hill	Dexter	3.6
4	12	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	5.4
5	10	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	6.7
6	11	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.5
7	10	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	10.3
8	12	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	11.3
9	12	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	12.0
10	11	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge	12.6
11	10	Rem Piper	Holt	12.9
12	12	Adrian Abbott-Wallace	Holt	13.6
13	10	Martin Gehrke	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.1
14	9	Hudson Doll	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.6
15	11	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	16.1
16	11	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge	17.5
17	12	Alex McKennon	Grand Ledge	18.0
18	10	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	19.7
19	12	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	19.7
20	10	Brendan Williams	Brighton	19.7
21	12	Evan Cummings	Brighton	20.1
22	10	Roarke MacArthur	Brighton	21.1
23	11	Nick Martens	Dexter	22.0
24	9	Josh Keillor-Beale	Brighton	22.7
25	12	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	24.5
26	11	Garrett Comer	Ann Arbor Skyline	25.0
27	10	Alex Weller	Howell	26.4
28	10	Kilian Boulware-Lopez	East Lansing	26.6
29	9	Grant Kulesza	Brighton	29.3
30	11	David DeLand	Howell	30.1

REGION 5

Any Big Battles?

Woodhaven vs. history. If it comes to fruition, it would be the first ever state qualifier for the Warrior Boys. Individual runner-ups, many News-Herald champs, plenty of All-Staters, and those who went onto run in college. But no team. There’ve been a few occasions throughout the year where the purple crew has solidified their standing. Otsego is the most prominent, when the Warriors placed 3^rd in the D1 field, six boys crossing the line in a sub-17.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	17	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	64	2.3		95+
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	70	2.7		95+
4	Gibraltar Carlson	131	4.1
5	Temperance Bedford	153	5.0
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	190	6.1
7	Dearborn Fordson	213	6.9
8	Dearborn	266	8.3
9	Monroe	293	9.8
10	Allen Park	293	9.8
11	Belleville	307	10.9
12	Ypsilanti Lincoln	318	11.8
13	Ypsilanti Community	336	13.0
14	Southgate Anderson	344	13.3
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	469	15.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Brownstown Woodhaven	63	2.4		95+
3	Saline	68	2.6		95+
4	Temperance Bedford	146	4.1
5	Wyandotte Roosevelt	172	5.1
6	Monroe	200	6.6
7	Dearborn Fordson	214	7.7
8	Allen Park	218	7.7
9	Dearborn	232	8.9
10	Gibraltar Carlson	235	9.1
11	Ypsilanti Community	299	11.0
12	Southgate Anderson	342	12.2
13	Dearborn Edsel Ford	374	13.4
14	Belleville	378	13.4
15	Ypsilanti Lincoln	447	15.2
16	Lincoln Park	466	15.8
17	Detroit Cass Tech	513	17.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	10	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.2
3	9	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.4
4	12	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.9
5	10	Savannah Staton	Saline	4.9
6	11	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer	7.7
7	12	Lilli Schlack	Saline	8.2
8	11	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.0
9	9	Audrey Grosteffon	Temperance Bedford	10.2
10	10	Adelynn Turck	Saline	11.1
11	10	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.2
12	9	Laura Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	11.4
13	11	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.2
14	10	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	13.4
15	12	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	13.5
16	10	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	17.3
17	10	Jaelynn Greene	Brownstown Woodhaven	18.2
18	10	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	19.0
19	9	Caroline Cotner	Saline	19.4
20	9	Madison Slade	Gibraltar Carlson	20.4
21	12	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	21.6
22	9	Lauren Tomaszewski	Saline	22.1
23	11	Sophie Roth	Saline	23.5
24	11	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	24.2
25	9	Serenity Clancy	Brownstown Woodhaven	25.0
26	12	Mahalia Staton	Saline	26.7
27	9	Ada Cain	Gibraltar Carlson	29.2
28	11	Maya Elachkar	Dearborn Fordson	29.6
29	10	Livia Boucher	Gibraltar Carlson	30.5
30	9	Emma Puscas	Wyandotte Roosevelt	30.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.3
2	12	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.9
3	10	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	3.7
4	11	Jacob Szalay	Saline	5.3
5	12	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	6.4
6	12	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	7.2
7	12	Brennan Larusso	Saline	9.3
8	12	Theo Sacks Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.3
9	12	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.8
10	11	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	11.9
11	JR	Noah Amori	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.8
12	11	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	13.0
13	11	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	13.5
14	11	Colin Courage	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.7
15	12	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	14.5
16	11	Jacob Cole	Saline	16.5
17	11	Rami Bazzi	Dearborn	18.0
18	11	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.0
19	11	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	19.2
20	10	Asher Sikma	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.3
21	10	Wes Rogan	Saline	20.3
22	11	Ryan Rummel	Saline	24.7
23	9	Gavin Bast	Saline	24.8
24	10	Zachary Greene	Wyandotte Roosevelt	25.5
25	11	Carter Mitton	Saline	27.0
26	12	Owen Putz	Brownstown Woodhaven	27.6
27	12	Abdu Eljahmi	Dearborn Edsel Ford	28.0
28	11	Maddi Duke	Temperance Bedford	28.4
29	9	Jaden Hill	Allen Park	28.6
30	11	Mohamed Aljahmi	Dearborn Fordson	29.0

REGION 6

Any Big Battles?

Don’t worry, all the schools are included. Aiden Pengelly, quietly on the comeback trail from track, will look to claim another individual championship for Canton. I wouldn’t sleep on Austin Mercado, the Salem junior who is progressing quite quickly.

It’s likely gonna be between Plymouth and Salem for the team title. Plymouth is on its traditional late season rise, hoping to spoil the Rocks, who’ve been at the forefront of Wayne County all season.

Back here in early October, Salem placed six boys under the 17 min. barrier, the white singlets packed up and displacing many fools. A 35+ point win over Churchill and Plymouth. But in a more competitive KLAA field, Plymouth was able to close that gap. 12 points separated the two teams, the lessened difference impacted greatly by Adrian Clarke and Dylan Kosik, running the rare PR on the Bennett Park course.

Whomever wins, it’ll be earned.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Livonia Churchill	43	1.1	92	95+
2	Ann Arbor Huron	62	2.2	7	95+
3	Salem	71	2.8		95+
4	Canton	109	4.5
5	Plymouth	110	4.6
6	Livonia Franklin	138	6.2
7	Livonia Stevenson	147	6.7
8	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	221	8.0
9	Wayne Memorial	304	9.5
10	Westland John Glenn	304	9.5

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Salem	42	1.2	84	95+
2	Plymouth	58	2.0	16	95+
3	Livonia Churchill	74	2.8		95+
4	Canton	115	4.2
5	Ann Arbor Huron	132	4.9
6	Detroit U-D Jesuit	164	6.1
7	Livonia Stevenson	194	7.1
8	Westland John Glenn	215	7.8
9	Livonia Franklin	275	9.1
10	Wayne Memorial	308	10.3
11	Detroit Renaissance	322	10.9
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	346	12.3
13	Ferndale	348	12.5
14	Detroit Mumford	447	14.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	1.0
2	9	Maribelle Kofahl	Ann Arbor Huron	2.1
3	12	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	3.5
4	12	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	4.8
5	12	Becca Jud	Salem	5.7
6	12	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill	6.2
7	9	Ella Hanner	Salem	8.2
8	11	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	9.4
9	12	Natalie Workman	Livonia Churchill	10.0
10	11	Samantha Bartell	Salem	10.2
11	10	Maddie Vargo	Livonia Churchill	12.9
12	11	Addie Jones	Salem	13.0
13	10	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	13.5
14	So	Clare Davidson	Canton	13.8
15	12	Sarah Wazne	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	17.4
16	11	Kerrington Fields-McCurdy	Livonia Stevenson	18.3
17	10	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin	18.4
18	12	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	19.2
19	12	Mia Fernandez	Canton	20.1
20	11	Liv Brody	Canton	20.3
21	10	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	20.7
22	11	Isabella Rushlow	Plymouth	21.5
23	9	Khaya Pierson	Livonia Stevenson	23.4
24	9	McKenzie Stearns	Canton	25.5
25	9	Olivia Kelly	Livonia Stevenson	25.7
26	11	Emma Slater	Livonia Franklin	26.9
27	11	Chelsea Lai	Plymouth	27.3
28	11	Jordan Pope	Livonia Franklin	30.3
29	12	Caroline LaPointe	Plymouth	30.6
30	11	Harper Pinto	Ann Arbor Huron	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.3
2	11	Austin Mercado	Salem	2.7
3	12	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	2.7
4	12	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	5.2
5	11	Jack Hanner	Salem	6.4
6	11	Samuel Batt	Salem	7.0
7	10	Lucas Brumo	Livonia Stevenson	7.1
8	11	Tyler Bjorklund	Livonia Churchill	10.2
9	12	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	11.0
10	12	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	12.3
11	12	Jaden Ding	Salem	14.5
12	11	Justin Mkrtumian	Detroit U-D Jesuit	16.2
13	11	Owen Dalebout	Salem	16.2
14	11	Kamden O’Donnell	Canton	16.4
15	10	Conrad Marra	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	11	Dylan Kosik	Plymouth	18.0
17	12	Tony D’Orazio	Livonia Churchill	18.7
18	10	Landen Martell	Plymouth	20.0
19	12	Tommy Buckalew	Westland John Glenn	20.5
20	12	Parker Szymczak	Salem	20.6
21	12	Joey Brake	Livonia Churchill	21.8
22	11	Adam Burns	Salem	21.9
23	9	Jack Caveney	Plymouth	22.1
24	12	TJ Conley	Ann Arbor Huron	22.6
25	9	Troy Verhelle	Livonia Churchill	22.8
26	9	Matthew Keefer	Livonia Churchill	24.3
27	10	Aarav Kalantry	Ann Arbor Huron	24.7
28	11	William Balasia	Detroit U-D Jesuit	27.9
29	11	Leonardo Reyes	Plymouth	28.0
30	11	Elliot Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.7

REGION 7

Any Big Battles?

Um, really nothing? Of course I say that and a team that always defies the ranks might advance. That’s usually White Lake Lakeland. The Eagles will need their full lineup in action. One of the occasions that occurred was in a tri against Walled Lake Northern and Milford. Given the results there, one can extrapolate a world where Lakeland challenges for a top-three spot.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Northville	41	1.0	95+	95+
2	Novi	80	2.0		95+
3	White Lake Lakeland	111	3.0		95+
4	Royal Oak	151	4.6
5	Bloomfield Hills	156	5.1
6	Walled Lake Northern	175	6.2
7	Farmington	185	7.1
8	Berkley	198	8.0
9	Birmingham Seaholm	203	8.3
10	Beverly Hills Groves	233	9.7
11	Walled Lake Central	279	10.9
12	North Farmington	353	12.2
13	West Bloomfield	391	13.4
14	Walled Lake Western	397	13.4

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Northville	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	Detroit Catholic Central	99	2.3		95+
3	Novi	109	2.8		95+
4	Walled Lake Northern	142	4.5
5	White Lake Lakeland	145	4.7
6	Royal Oak	167	5.7
7	Beverly Hills Groves	232	7.8
8	West Bloomfield	242	8.6
9	Berkley	259	9.6
10	North Farmington	260	9.8
11	Farmington	277	11.0
12	Bloomfield Hills	277	10.9
13	Walled Lake Western	308	13.0
14	Brother Rice	341	13.5
15	Birmingham Seaholm	388	14.8
16	Walled Lake Central	510	16.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville	1.2
2	11	Katelynn Egli	Novi	3.5
3	11	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	4.0
4	9	Giada Mills	Beverly Hills Groves	7.5
5	11	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	9.5
6	11	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	9.6
7	10	Paige Rohda	Berkley	9.8
8	10	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm	10.0
9	12	Kierra Magner	Farmington	11.2
10	11	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	12.0
11	12	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	12.0
12	10	Claire Galas	Novi	13.5
13	11	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	14.0
14	9	Brynn Somers	Northville	14.4
15	12	Mya Tass	Novi	17.5
16	11	Colette Lozo	Northville	18.0
17	10	Maya Zakrzewski	Walled Lake Northern	18.1
18	9	Claire Lawrence	Bloomfield Hills	19.9
19	11	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	20.7
20	10	Tatum Mooradian	Northville	21.0
21	12	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	22.5
22	9	Ella Corby	Northville	23.8
23	9	Ella German	Novi	23.8
24	11	Gabby Marino	White Lake Lakeland	26.1
25	9	Jessica Philip	Novi	27.0
26	11	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	27.9
27	12	Sarah Stein	North Farmington	28.4
28	11	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	28.5
29	12	Laura Jonas	Novi	28.8
30	12	Lucy VanHaerents	Royal Oak	28.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brandon Cloud	Northville	1.6
2	12	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	2.1
3	12	Ethan Hertza	Northville	4.9
4	11	Trevor Baptist	Novi	5.1
5	10	Brady Glon	Detroit Catholic Central	6.1
6	12	Ryan Stojov	Northville	10.5
7	11	Devin Lau	Farmington	11.4
8	12	Colton Blackburn	Northville	11.5
9	12	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	11.7
10	12	Nikola Dahlgren	Walled Lake Northern	11.8
11	12	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	11.8
12	10	Emmanuel Coates	Northville	12.7
13	9	Lucas Naspinsky	White Lake Lakeland	12.8
14	12	Alex Hamilton	North Farmington	13.0
15	12	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	15.2
16	11	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	15.5
17	11	Beckett Sipes	Royal Oak	17.6
18	9	Luke Kramer	Detroit Catholic Central	18.6
19	11	Keats Rosenbrock	Royal Oak	19.8
20	11	Jack Lewis	Northville	20.3
21	10	Aarush Vijay	Novi	21.7
22	10	John McCann	Novi	23.8
23	12	Liam Aiuto	Royal Oak	24.0
24	10	Owen Nelms	White Lake Lakeland	24.1
25	11	Tyler Hennessey	Berkley	27.7
26	10	Asher Lawson	Walled Lake Northern	28.3
27	10	Oliver Borek	Detroit Catholic Central	33.0
28	12	Isaac German	Novi	33.3
29	11	Coplin Serota	Brother Rice	33.7
30	10	Josh Hilliard	Berkley	33.9

REGION 8

Any Big Battles?

What do you base it on?

Is it the OAA Red Championship, where Rochester and Oxford were 2^nd and 3^rd, operating at a 10+ point gap over 4^th through 6^th.

Do you look back to the Oakland County Championship, where Troy and Rochester Adams split the spots between Oxford and Rochester.

One aspect you can seemingly count on is the Wildcat ability to pack up. At both the county and league level, Oxford was able to have, at the most, a 22 sec. difference between their 1^st and 5^th. Also, Oxford’s 5^th runner was the best of both competitions.

By the numbers, neitherTroy or Rochester ran their best at either meet. For the Falcons, one of their better efforts on the year was at Jackson, with four boys sub-16:50, finishing just ahead of Troy. The Colts may have been behind there, but excel on the tougher courses such as Holly, where they actually beat Oxford, all scorers under 17:30 through those tight turns and steep hills.

Clintonwood is fast and it’ll be burning for those seeking another week of action.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Rochester	42	1.1	86	95+
2	Rochester Adams	53	1.9	14	95+
3	Clarkston	78	3.0		95+
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	106	4.0
5	Troy	158	6.0
6	Lake Orion	159	6.0
7	Oxford	174	7.1
8	Utica Ford	175	7.0
9	Troy Athens	256	9.0
10	Warren Mott	337	10.8
11	Sterling Heights Stevenson	345	11.2
12	Waterford Kettering	349	11.6
13	Warren Cousino	359	12.4
14	Waterford Mott	420	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Clarkston	53	1.0	95+	95+
2	Troy	98	3.0		66
3	Oxford	99	3.1		61
4	Rochester	99	3.1		68
5	Rochester Adams	120	4.9		5
6	Lake Orion	138	6.0
7	Troy Athens	166	7.0
8	Utica Ford	205	8.5
9	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	210	8.7
10	Sterling Heights Stevenson	243	9.8
11	Waterford Kettering	381	11.2
12	Warren Mott	399	13.1
13	Waterford Mott	405	12.8
14	Warren Cousino	407	13.0
15	Sterling Heights	425	14.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	1.1
2	12	Ella Abraham	Rochester	2.5
3	9	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams	3.5
4	12	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	3.9
5	9	Abigail Deering	Rochester Adams	5.4
6	10	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	6.0
7	12	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	7.2
8	11	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	8.8
9	12	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	9.8
10	11	Adrienne Jones	Rochester	12.5
11	11	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	13.0
12	12	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	13.2
13	10	Sienna Chapin	Oxford	14.4
14	10	Maren Greve	Rochester	16.2
15	12	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	16.9
16	10	Amelia Garvin	Clarkston	17.1
17	9	Annabelle Shaw	Clarkston	18.8
18	11	Tessa Kozlowski	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	20.3
19	11	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	21.2
20	10	Riah Guoin	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	22.1
21	11	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	23.7
22	10	Hailey Lan	Troy	24.8
23	12	Gianna D’Angelo	Utica Ford	26.7
24	9	Clare O’Reilly	Troy Athens	27.1
25	11	Lexi Schwartz	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	27.6
26	12	Emma Miller	Utica Ford	27.9
27	11	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	28.4
28	9	Aryana Givans	Rochester	28.9
29	9	Maddie Deering	Rochester Adams	29.2
30	11	Annie Roraff	Rochester	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	David Dubeck	Clarkston	1.9
2	12	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	3.1
3	12	Nathaniel Linden	Troy Athens	3.8
4	12	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.3
5	12	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	5.1
6	12	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	6.0
7	12	Gavin Wilkins	Rochester Adams	9.8
8	10	Asa Konwinski	Troy	10.4
9	10	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Adams	10.4
10	9	Avery Clinton-Barnett	Oxford	13.6
11	11	Vern Clyne	Clarkston	13.7
12	10	Lucas Campbell	Rochester	13.8
13	12	Anthony Dubeck	Clarkston	16.3
14	10	Aidan Schwalbach	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.0
15	12	Isaac Clark	Troy	17.9
16	10	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	19.4
17	12	Cayden Canham	Oxford	19.6
18	11	Ethan Christoff	Oxford	20.1
19	10	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.1
20	12	Matthew Buchanan	Oxford	20.3
21	11	Colin Blachford	Troy Athens	20.6
22	11	Jack Witt	Troy	21.0
23	11	Henry Witt	Troy	21.6
24	11	Jesse Reed	Rochester Adams	23.9
25	9	Luis Nava	Lake Orion	24.7
26	10	Brady Bigelow	Oxford	25.9
27	12	Joey Light	Troy	27.2
28	11	Luke Nagy	Rochester Adams	27.6
29	11	Miles Foster	Clarkston	28.1
30	11	Conner McLaughlin	Rochester	30.3

REGION 9

Any Big Battles?

The numbers show a single point separating the UCS schools. I wouldn’t count out Fraser, who in 2024 was a constant thorn in the projections’ side. The Ramblers have had the occasional meet where they’ve shown the ability to qualify. Otsego is an example, all five Fraser boys at 17:15 or below.

But in this Macomb County centric region (side note: is it weird that Utica Ford is over at Region 8?), we look to the Macomb County Championship. Five points separated Utica Eisenhower and Utica. The Chieftains gained an advantage early and held on through their 4^th and 5^th guys. Eisenhower gained 6 points from their final two scorers, not enough to overcome the 11 point difference between each top-three. But it’s so dang close, as the average gap between the two at each spot was 7 seconds. It might not even be the two above schools that determine their place, another random runner could slide in or out of those gaps and send a team into frenzy when the results come in.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Romeo	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Utica	69	2.1		95+
3	Macomb Dakota	92	3.2		77
4	Fraser	109	3.9		23
5	Utica Eisenhower	139	5.3
6	Port Huron Northern	150	6.1
7	Grosse Pointe South	158	6.4
8	Anchor Bay	220	8.5
9	L’Anse Creuse North	224	8.6
10	Chippewa Valley	266	9.9
11	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	369	11.1
12	L’Anse Creuse	390	12.0
13	Port Huron	407	13.0
14	Roseville	433	14.3
15	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	441	14.6

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Romeo	34	1.0	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	75	2.0		95+
3	Utica Eisenhower	126	3.8		38
4	Utica	127	3.8		46
5	Fraser	143	5.0		12
6	Warren DeLaSalle	153	5.6
7	Anchor Bay	186	7.1
8	L’Anse Creuse North	205	7.8
9	Chippewa Valley	241	9.3
10	Grosse Pointe South	252	9.9
11	Port Huron Northern	267	10.8
12	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	327	12.1
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	414	13.5
14	Roseville	426	13.7
15	Warren Woods Tower	452	15.0
16	L’Anse Creuse	473	15.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.1
2	12	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	2.6
3	12	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	2.8
4	12	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	4.1
5	12	Emmie Clor	Romeo	6.2
6	11	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo	8.7
7	11	Alice Foley	Fraser	9.2
8	12	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	9.7
9	11	Emma Brown	Utica	10.3
10	12	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	11.0
11	10	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota	11.0
12	11	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	11.5
13	12	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	12.0
14	10	Kylie Brown	Utica	15.8
15	9	Grace Mathers	Macomb Dakota	16.2
16	12	Brooke McFarland	Utica	19.6
17	12	Kate Molloy	Fraser	20.1
18	9	Eleanor Pilsner	Grosse Pointe South	20.8
19	11	Haley Sharp	Port Huron Northern	22.1
20	12	Olivia Cereska	Fraser	22.1
21	10	Ava Knight	L’Anse Creuse North	22.8
22	10	Codianne Palczewski	Utica	23.7
23	12	Ava Tow	Utica	23.8
24	9	Audra Krause	Anchor Bay	27.2
25	12	Jewel Zschernig	Fraser	28.0
26	10	Riley Owen	Port Huron Northern	28.0
27	11	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	29.8
28	10	Layla Gendernelle	Macomb Dakota	30.6
29	11	Morgan Costello	Grosse Pointe South	31.3
30	12	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	31.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	3.0
2	12	Owen Perry	Romeo	3.3
3	12	Harper Wesley	Utica	5.3
4	12	Luke Allen	Romeo	5.4
5	9	Rio Hrabovsky	Romeo	5.5
6	12	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	7.6
7	12	James Brickel	Romeo	9.9
8	12	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	10.0
9	12	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	10.2
10	11	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	11.3
11	12	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	11.3
12	12	Drew Pietraszkiewicz	Utica Eisenhower	12.7
13	12	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	13.6
14	12	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	15.7
15	10	Logan LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	15.9
16	11	Tyler Williams	Fraser	17.5
17	10	Wesley LaFever	Macomb Dakota	18.8
18	10	Federico Moreno-Padilla	Utica Eisenhower	19.0
19	12	Lucas Gizoni	Romeo	19.8
20	12	Charlie Curtis	Utica	20.9
21	10	Jacob Solomon	Utica	22.2
22	11	Grant Davis	Port Huron Northern	22.3
23	11	Brody Empson	Romeo	22.8
24	10	Cameron Martin	Fraser	23.2
25	11	Brandon Ziehmer	Anchor Bay	24.5
26	12	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	25.9
27	12	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	25.9
28	12	Mario Carducci	Chippewa Valley	26.3
29	10	Sebastian Azar	Anchor Bay	31.6
30	11	Lucien Lamothe	Warren DeLaSalle	33.2

Uncategorized

2025 Regional Projections: Division 2

October 23, 2025October 23, 2025 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

The boys’ side is a bit simpler, the girls’ a little more complex. All year, the Cedar Springs boys have been the class of the region. They’re deep, with a total of ten RedHawks busting through into the 17’s or below. At a tough day over at the BNC Championship, Petoskey showed it has the quality of runners capable of being a bit ahead of the groupings here. Whitehall and Spring Lake seem to be the ones chasing. Whitehall, led by Bobby Jazwinski and followed by Rex Pumford/Hunter Parsons, is exceptionally strong up front. Spring Lake is a bit more even across the board. We saw this play out at Portage, where the Lakers gained 100+ points on the Vikings with their 3^rd through 5^th man. With a huge caveat, of course, no Parsons for Whitehall (he’s been back).

A tad more complexity for the girls, three teams in the running for two spots. Clare takes the trek over from mid-Michigan and also Division 3. They’re the ones on a roll, snapping a decades long JPC streak held by Shepherd, six Pioneers sub-21 on the quick Shepherd course.

Despite 45 min. separating the two schools, Cedar Springs and Fremont have not faced one another. But that’s why we do these ratings – to give our best effort at these scenarios! This isn’t a perfect tool of comparison, but the two squads have the highest top-five averages at a single meet. For Fremont, it was early in the year at home in the WMC Mega, five Packers placing in the top-13. The RedHawks had similar success in a friendly environment, two girls sub-20 and all sub-22 at their home invite. Benzie will be the home for these two plus Clare, and the projections believe that Cedar Springs’ edge lies in the RedHawk top three, just enough of an advantage to be a slight favorite.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cadillac	63	1.2	80	95+
2	Spring Lake	71	1.8	20	95+
3	Cedar Springs	114	3.7		45
4	Clare	119	4.1		33
5	Fremont	121	4.2		22
6	Fruitport	171	6.3
7	Gaylord	192	7.5
8	Ludington	193	7.5
9	Gladwin	228	9.4
10	Petoskey	229	9.6
11	Howard City Tri-County	254	10.7
12	Whitehall	346	12.2
13	Big Rapids	362	12.9
14	Muskegon Oakridge	397	13.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cedar Springs	86	1.5	64	95+
2	Petoskey	97	2.0	31	95+
3	Whitehall	121	3.4		54
4	Spring Lake	123	3.5		49
5	Howard City Tri-County	152	5.2
6	Fremont	189	7.1
7	Gladwin	198	7.5
8	Clare	202	7.5
9	Ludington	227	9.2
10	Muskegon Oakridge	232	9.4
11	Cadillac	253	10.7
12	Gaylord	272	11.9
13	Big Rapids	281	12.4
14	Fruitport	329	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	9	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	2.8
3	11	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.3
4	12	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.9
5	11	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	5.5
6	12	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	5.5
7	12	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.8
8	11	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	8.7
9	9	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	10.1
10	11	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	10.9
11	10	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	13.1
12	10	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	14.4
13	11	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	14.7
14	10	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	15.0
15	10	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	15.1
16	12	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	15.9
17	9	Myah Breuker	Fremont	16.6
18	11	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	18.8
19	9	Alison Villa-Bilton	Clare	19.2
20	9	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	21.6
21	9	Matia Battjes	Spring Lake	22.7
22	11	Zoe German	Fruitport	23.5
23	12	Joelle Patten	Fremont	23.8
24	12	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	26.2
25	11	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	27.4
26	10	Vivian O’Callaghan	Gladwin	28.0
27	11	Lauren Leis	Clare	30.8
28	9	Natalie Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
29	9	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	31.1
30	12	Anna Pake	Howard City Tri-County	31.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	4.2
3	11	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	4.6
4	12	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	5.8
5	12	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	5.8
6	11	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	6.4
7	11	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	9.5
8	10	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	9.9
9	12	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	12.7
10	11	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	14.4
11	11	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	14.7
12	12	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	15.1
13	10	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	15.1
14	11	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	15.7
15	11	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	18.2
16	9	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	20.2
17	12	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	20.8
18	11	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	22.2
19	11	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	22.7
20	12	Rocket Wilson	Howard City Tri-County	23.3
21	10	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	23.4
22	11	Connor Schmidt	Clare	25.5
23	12	Caleb Lamblin	Gaylord	25.5
24	11	Mossen Green	Fremont	25.8
25	9	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	26.6
26	10	Tate Smith	Fremont	26.9
27	12	Simon Licata	Petoskey	28.5
28	10	Kelan Monreal	Howard City Tri-County	30.1
29	12	Clayton Peacock	Clare	30.4
30	10	Gabe Piach	Gladwin	33.0

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The third spot for both genders. Tiny gaps projected between the Sparta boys and their foes from Grand Rapids Catholic Central, an equal difference thought to be found in the sparring match of the Hudsonville Unity Christian and Holland girls.

For Holland, their final five races have all featured Unity Christian as a counterpart. The first four all ended in the same result – a loss, typically by a single spot in the standings. Smaller fields, bigger fields, conference, invitationals, it didn’t make a difference as the Crusaders were able to come in clutch down the stretch of scorers, their 4^th/5^th girls commonly coming in a minute before the Dutch. At the OK Black Championship, the results flipped, Holland coming in ahead of HUC. Holland was able to match the Crusaders at the four spot, lessening the advantage gained in earlier meets.

Whereas the two above are well familiar with one another, Sparta and Grand Rapids Catholic Central haven’t seen one another. They share similar features and different dynamics. Mitchell Dunlap has been a consistent low stick for the Cougars. Owen Metzger and Carson Wood bring an experienced two-headed force up front for the Spartans. Each squad has a bevy of kids in the mid-18 range. The projections show that the racing bubble could be concentrated in that mid-18 area, whichever depth combination has the better day has a great chance of advancing.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Coopersville	66	2.0		95+
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	88	3.3		67
4	Holland	95	3.6		33
5	Allendale	147	5.0
6	Sparta	213	6.9
7	Hamilton	219	7.2
8	Hopkins	223	7.3
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	251	9.0
10	Grand Rapids West Catholic	266	9.7
11	South Haven	313	11.2
12	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	330	12.2
13	Allegan	334	12.5
14	Wyoming Lee	425	14.4
15	Comstock Park	432	14.7

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	52	1.0	95+	95+
2	Allendale	66	2.0		95+
3	Sparta	116	3.5		65
4	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	122	4.0		26
5	Coopersville	145	5.5
6	Holland	147	5.8		7
7	Hudsonville Unity Christian	162	6.7
8	Hopkins	185	7.6
9	Allegan	246	9.0
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	300	10.4
11	South Haven	314	11.0
12	Grand Rapids West Catholic	331	11.7
13	Hamilton	361	12.8
14	Wyoming Lee	411	14.2
15	Comstock Park	422	14.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.3
2	11	Johanna Mulder	Holland	3.1
3	10	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	3.4
4	11	Mia May	Sparta	3.7
5	12	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	4.6
6	11	Olivia Weiss	Holland	6.1
7	11	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	7.1
8	10	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	9.1
9	11	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	10.2
10	12	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
11	10	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	10.5
12	11	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	12.1
13	9	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	12.4
14	11	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.9
15	11	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	15.0
16	12	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	19.5
17	12	Lauryn Byker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	20.3
18	12	Katelynn Boyd	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.2
19	10	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	21.4
20	11	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
21	12	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	12	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	23.2
23	9	Megyn Allers	Coopersville	24.5
24	11	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.4
25	9	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	25.5
26	9	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	26.8
27	10	Ellery Rietema	Hamilton	27.5
28	10	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.4
29	11	Riley DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	33.3
30	9	Mia Hill	Allendale	33.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mason Hill	Allendale	1.6
2	11	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	2.3
3	12	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	2.7
4	12	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	3.8
5	10	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
6	9	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	7.7
7	12	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	7.9
8	12	Owen Metzger	Sparta	8.5
9	12	Carson Wood	Sparta	10.1
10	11	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	12.4
11	10	Macen White	Holland Christian	12.4
12	10	Kash Moored	Hopkins	12.5
13	10	Caelen Gray	Holland	12.7
14	12	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.0
15	9	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	14.0
16	11	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	14.2
17	9	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	15.8
18	12	Will Johnson	Holland Christian	17.0
19	11	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	20.2
20	12	Grant Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.6
21	10	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	21.8
22	10	Anthony Rushmore	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	22.9
23	9	Reuben Riemersma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
24	11	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	27.2
25	10	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	27.6
26	11	Owen VanDyke	Allendale	28.1
27	11	Rian Powers	Holland	28.6
28	10	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	29.4
29	11	Joe Janesak	Sparta	29.9
30	12	Evan Keller	Coopersville	30.4

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Which one of the top-ranked girls’ teams will unfortunately have to stay home? Just like the Traverse City area D4 mecca, the Grand Rapids area is ripe with excellent D2 squads. They’re greatly concentrated here, the League Week Rankings listing:

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#4 Grand Rapids South Christian
#9 East Grand Rapids
#12 Forest Hills Eastern

As of now, it is appearing that FHE is on the outside looking in. However, not as if there’s zero hope. At Portage, if one filters for Region 12 teams, the Hawks were only three points behind East Grand Rapids, a great advantage coming at the 5^th spot. That wasn’t even the Hawks’ best performance of the year. A week prior at Allendale, the entire FHE scoring lineup was sub-21. On the other hand, East Grand Rapids can look to the past for confidence, as the Pioneers ran up a good margin on the Hawks at the OK White Championship.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	East Grand Rapids	87	3.2		81
4	Forest Hills Eastern	102	3.8		19
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	176	5.8
6	Ionia	185	6.5
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	187	6.5
8	Wayland Union	197	7.3
9	Hastings	256	9.3
10	Battle Creek Pennfield	269	9.9
11	Portland	292	10.9
12	Grand River Preparatory	363	12.0
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	395	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	East Grand Rapids	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	Forest Hills Eastern	86	3.0		95+
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	115	4.0
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	155	5.1
6	Portland	183	6.0
7	Grand River Preparatory	214	7.3
8	Wayland Union	232	8.6
9	Ionia	237	8.9
10	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	240	9.2
11	Lake Odessa Lakewood	299	11.0
12	Hastings	335	12.0
13	Battle Creek Pennfield	368	12.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caroline Randall	Hastings	2.1
2	12	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	3.6
3	12	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.4
4	10	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	4.4
5	10	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	5.0
6	12	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	6.7
7	11	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	7.5
8	11	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	8.3
9	9	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.8
10	12	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	11.1
11	12	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.4
12	11	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	12.5
13	10	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.0
14	11	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	14.2
15	10	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.1
16	10	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	10	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	17.2
18	9	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	17.5
19	10	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
20	9	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	20.7
21	12	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	21.3
22	9	Madison Bumhoffer	Wayland Union	23.4
23	9	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.9
24	11	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	24.8
25	9	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.6
26	11	Iris Zylstra	East Grand Rapids	26.1
27	11	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.1
28	9	Jovie Overkamp	Ionia	27.7
29	9	Faith Antonini	Forest Hills Eastern	28.5
30	10	Ava Benedict	Ionia	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	1.3
2	10	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	2.5
3	12	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	4.5
4	12	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	5.8
5	12	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	6.5
6	10	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	7.1
7	11	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	7.3
8	12	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	8.1
9	12	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	11.6
10	11	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	12.0
11	12	Sam Hillary	East Grand Rapids	12.8
12	10	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.9
13	12	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	14.4
14	12	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	15.4
15	10	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	16.9
16	12	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	17.7
17	11	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	17.8
18	10	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	17.9
19	11	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	18.3
20	11	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	20.6
21	10	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	20.7
22	11	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	20.9
23	9	Seth Sytsma	Grand Rapids Christian	23.3
24	12	Elijah Lipscomb	Grand River Preparatory	24.5
25	9	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	24.6
26	11	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.5
27	12	Ethan Manning	Wayland Union	25.6
28	12	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	28.4
29	12	Owen Moore	Portland	28.8
30	12	Jaxxon Thelen	Ionia	28.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

The many boys’ teams that can advance. Otsego is the biggest lock of them all, winning the Wolverine Conference over many of these squads. Three Rivers had a bit of early success, both at Big Hill and Under the Lights, rolling to some of the higher top-five averages of the chase pack. At the Wolverine Conference Final, the Wildcats still held a position ahead of Edwardsburg, with the Eddies right there through four runners. Over at the SMAC Championship, Richland Gull Lake packed up their 3^rd thru 5^th boys, 17:27 to 17:36 to finish 5^th in the D1-centric field.

But one race may be the greatest preview – Portage. The conditions couldn’t be more drastic. Just look outside your window this week and compare against the overbearing heat of that afternoon. A majority of Region 13’s teams were present and the results defied the projections, St. Joseph and Vicksburg pulling ahead when filtering for this region’s competition. Perhaps all the math is wrong.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	106	2.2		95+
3	Richland Gull Lake	132	3.4		68
4	Plainwell	153	4.7		13
5	Sturgis	153	4.9		17
6	Stevensville Lakeshore	156	4.9		5
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	212	7.5
8	Edwardsburg	223	8.1
9	Marshall	247	9.4
10	Niles	264	10.3
11	Vicksburg	279	11.1
12	Paw Paw	290	11.9
13	Three Rivers	291	11.8
14	Berrien Springs	352	14.3
15	Coldwater	356	14.5

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	93	1.2	81	95+
2	Richland Gull Lake	120	2.9	10	68
3	Three Rivers	125	3.3	9	60
4	Edwardsburg	130	3.6		48
5	Plainwell	143	4.6		19
6	Vicksburg	164	6.4
7	St. Joseph	172	7.3
8	Paw Paw	172	7.3
9	Battle Creek Harper Creek	202	8.9
10	Sturgis	220	9.8
11	Marshall	248	10.8
12	Coldwater	289	12.1
13	Berrien Springs	326	13.2
14	Niles	341	13.6
15	Dowagiac Union	484	15.5
16	Stevensville Lakeshore	485	15.5

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	2.3
3	9	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	4.2
4	10	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	5.2
5	9	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	5.6
6	9	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.8
7	11	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.7
8	9	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.6
9	12	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.8
10	10	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	9.9
11	12	Georgia Babcock	Edwardsburg	11.0
12	12	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.7
13	9	Lulu Park	Sturgis	14.1
14	10	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	14.5
15	12	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	15.1
16	9	Taylee Fox	Otsego	16.4
17	9	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	16.7
18	9	Fiona Ryan	Plainwell	18.9
19	9	Kalynn Young	Richland Gull Lake	21.2
20	10	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	21.9
21	12	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	22.9
22	11	Lillie Kerr	Three Rivers	23.9
23	10	Gwen Eby	Coldwater	26.1
24	10	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	27.1
25	9	Lena Coulston	Niles	27.9
26	12	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	28.0
27	10	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	28.1
28	11	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	30.9
29	11	Abbie Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	32.4
30	11	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	33.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	2.8
2	11	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
3	12	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	6.2
4	12	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	7.0
5	11	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	7.0
6	11	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.1
7	12	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.0
8	11	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	9.5
9	9	Jackson Pant	Richland Gull Lake	9.5
10	11	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	12.8
11	11	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	13.0
12	12	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	15.5
13	12	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	15.6
14	10	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	16.8
15	12	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	17.3
16	11	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	17.5
17	10	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	17.7
18	10	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	17.9
19	12	Jonah Zietlow	Three Rivers	18.0
20	12	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	19.1
21	12	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	21.1
22	12	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	22.0
23	12	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	22.5
24	9	Ryan Long	Otsego	22.6
25	9	George Whitaker	Otsego	24.6
26	10	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	26.1
27	12	Finn Tauren	Richland Gull Lake	27.7
28	9	John Brickley	Niles	28.1
29	10	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	29.0
30	11	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	30.2

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The Capital Area teams do a wondrous job of making sure their competition stays close to home. St. Johns, Williamston, and Haslett all have gotten after one another multiple times in the CAAC Red. Charlotte has competed against them all at Greater Lansing, along with the multitudes of smaller meets across the area.

Both the area and league championships give a bit of a preview of what’s to come. For league action, Haslett was able to overwhelm both St. Johns and Williamston with its depth. The Vikings’ 5^th girl, Izzy Brown, was able to slip ahead of Williamston’s 4^th and had a nearly 2 min. gap on the Redwings’ 5^th.

A few days earlier at Greater Lansing, St. Johns was able to derive an advantage on Ava Schafer being a low-stick, her 3 points driving a 20+ point wedge on the other three squads. Even in the large championship field, these four teams placed one after another in the standings. Friday, they’ll likely do the same, in any kind of order.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	DeWitt	56	1.0	95+	95+
2	Charlotte	109	2.9		75
3	Haslett	111	3.1		64
4	St. Johns	116	3.6		44
5	Williamston	124	4.6		17
6	Parma Western	155	6.3
7	Fowlerville	160	6.6
8	Alma	215	8.4
9	Owosso	217	8.6
10	Corunna	284	10.5
11	Eaton Rapids	288	10.6
12	Jackson Northwest	328	12.4
13	Michigan Center	333	12.6
14	Lansing Sexton	414	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Alma	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Parma Western	61	2.0		95+
3	DeWitt	84	3.0		95+
4	Williamston	126	4.5
5	Owosso	131	4.9
6	Haslett	143	5.7
7	Corunna	180	7.2
8	St. Johns	202	8.0
9	Fowlerville	227	8.8
10	Jackson Northwest	307	10.2
11	Charlotte	325	10.8
12	Michigan Center	404	12.3
13	Lansing Eastern	414	13.1
14	Lansing Sexton	423	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	10	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	2.1
3	12	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	7.4
5	10	Abby Crandell	Owosso	7.4
6	10	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	7.5
7	11	Colette Charchut	Haslett	7.7
8	9	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	8.2
9	10	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	9.7
10	11	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.2
11	9	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	11.9
12	12	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	12.2
13	11	Natalie Kuhl	Parma Western	12.4
14	12	Maddy Takagishi	DeWitt	15.7
15	9	Dakota Budd	Haslett	15.9
16	12	Emily Agnew	DeWitt	16.3
17	10	Grace Mingerink	DeWitt	17.2
18	10	Emma Cook	DeWitt	18.9
19	12	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	19.0
20	12	Andie Wildern	Charlotte	19.5
21	10	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	19.5
22	11	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	22.2
23	12	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	23.4
24	12	Abby Russell	Haslett	24.7
25	9	Kendall Dorey	Charlotte	25.1
26	12	Kate Church	Haslett	27.6
27	12	Anna Johnson	Alma	29.6
28	12	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	29.7
29	10	Reggie Cooke	Williamston	30.1
30	11	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	1.7
2	12	Thomas Larson	Alma	1.8
3	12	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	3.1
4	10	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	6.0
5	12	Aiden Marple	DeWitt	6.4
6	9	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	6.7
7	11	Ryan Good	Parma Western	9.8
8	12	Luca Lebron	Alma	10.3
9	12	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt	10.4
10	10	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	10.9
11	10	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.9
12	10	Teddy Weber	Williamston	12.5
13	12	Raymond Herek	Williamston	14.2
14	12	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	15.3
15	11	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	15.6
16	9	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	16.6
17	9	Nico Lebron	Alma	17.0
18	9	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	18.7
19	12	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	20.1
20	11	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	20.6
21	9	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	20.9
22	11	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	21.6
23	11	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	25.1
24	10	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	27.3
25	11	Kai Miller	Owosso	27.4
26	10	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	27.9
27	12	Payton Chandler	Corunna	28.2
28	11	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	28.6
29	10	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	29.2
30	10	Christian LeConte	Owosso	29.6

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

Two spots for three girls teams.

Freeland and Frankenmuth, two league and county foes, alongside a rising Shepherd. The former two are right there with one another, the largest separation at county and league meets over the past month was a whopping five points. That Freeland five point victory was a month back at the 2^nd TVC Jamboree, since then, Frankenmuth has claimed the two with a lesser margin.

Heck, even at the massive Bluejay Invite, the two squads were seven points apart, but that field isn’t all that comparable to the regional composition. What also isn’t comparable is how Shepherd ran at their home invite and at their final JPC Jamboree, also held in their friendly environs. An average of 33 seconds faster across their top seven, an indicator that the Bluejays are right at the level of the Falcons and Eagles.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Goodrich	48	1.0	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	67	2.5		86
3	Freeland	74	3.1		68
4	Shepherd	75	3.4		46
5	Imlay City	210	5.6
6	Birch Run	211	5.8
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	234	7.7
8	Flint Powers Catholic	248	8.9
9	Clio	249	9.1
10	Essexville-Garber	250	9.2
11	Flint Kearsley	257	9.8
12	North Branch	297	12.0
13	Bay City John Glenn	316	12.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Flint Powers Catholic	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Shepherd	82	2.3		95+
3	Frankenmuth	90	3.3		90
4	Saginaw Swan Valley	129	4.1		7
5	Freeland	137	4.4
6	Bay City John Glenn	206	6.4
7	Flint Kearsley	212	6.7
8	Ortonville Brandon	237	8.4
9	North Branch	249	9.2
10	Goodrich	261	10.1
11	Birch Run	271	10.8
12	Imlay City	285	11.5
13	Bay City Central	314	12.9
14	Clio	337	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.2
2	11	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
3	10	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	3.9
4	11	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.9
5	12	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	4.2
6	10	Danica Redes	Shepherd	6.1
7	11	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.4
8	12	Samantha Brown	Clio	9.7
9	9	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	10.7
10	11	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	11.4
11	11	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	11.8
12	11	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	12.0
13	10	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	12.1
14	11	Claire Brown	Goodrich	12.5
15	10	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	12.9
16	12	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	15.8
17	10	Ava Clark	Goodrich	16.7
18	10	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	17.4
19	12	Emilee Young	Shepherd	18.3
20	9	Grace Kloha	Freeland	20.9
21	10	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	22.8
22	12	Gabby Cleveland	Frankenmuth	24.2
23	11	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	25.0
24	11	Madison Moeggenborg	Shepherd	26.5
25	10	Ellie Thering	Freeland	27.4
26	11	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	27.8
27	11	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.7
28	9	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	29.0
29	11	Brynn Robinson	Shepherd	29.4
30	12	Madeline Dunn	Goodrich	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	2.1
2	12	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	12	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.1
4	12	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	6.9
5	12	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	7.2
6	10	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	7.7
7	11	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	8.5
8	12	Tommy Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	10.7
9	11	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	10.7
10	12	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.2
11	12	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	11.6
12	11	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	12.6
13	11	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	15.3
14	12	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	17.9
15	11	William McDonald	Shepherd	18.5
16	12	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	19.8
17	10	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	20.2
18	12	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	20.9
19	11	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	21.2
20	9	Ryan Brown	Freeland	21.6
21	12	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	22.5
22	12	Jace Thomas	Birch Run	23.7
23	11	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	25.2
24	10	Leif Briggs-Lind	Bay City John Glenn	25.8
25	12	Adam Howell	Flint Kearsley	27.3
26	11	Jaden Rodriguez	Saginaw Swan Valley	27.9
27	9	Everett Anaya	Freeland	28.9
28	12	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	29.0
29	11	Jackson Horn	Freeland	29.1
30	11	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	31.1

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

Fenton vs. Pinckney in the boys’ race. Linden vs. Pinckney in the girls’ race. Each tight knit battle features a race against one another. The first one we’ll see includes the home team, with their course knowledge vs. Pinckney, no stranger to hills in their every day life. The Pirates did take the trek up here for the Linden Classic, defeated by 13 points, though missing Julia Garcia. On the other hand, the Linden of the last few weeks is drastically different than the one from September.

More recently, the boys of Fenton and Pinckney faced off at Gabriel Richard. This is an interesting one, perhaps entirely dependent on where the packs of points lie (side note: this is one aspect of XC I love – how scoring can change in the context of what the rest of the field is doing). Both the Pirate and Tiger frontrunners and 4^th/5^th guys were almost identical. Fenton’s 2^nd man was at 16:08, 14 sec. and 10 places ahead of Pinckney’s #2. Pinckney’s 3^rd was at 16:33, 20 sec. and 13 places ahead of Fenton’s #3. The result of the meet was a 8-point win in favor of Pinckney. The projections think that the latter gap could be greater than the former, not in terms of time, but just how this field is composed. So a bit of a margin at Hudson Mills is lessened to what is essentially a coin flip.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Pinckney	63	1.4	62	95+
2	Linden	64	1.6	38	95+
3	Bloomfield Hills Marian	108	3.1		92
4	Farmington Hills Mercy	146	4.5		6
5	Dearborn Divine Child	175	5.8
6	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	176	6.0
7	Lake Fenton	183	6.3
8	Oak Park	207	7.7
9	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	236	9.5
10	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	247	10.1
11	Fenton	265	11.3
12	Detroit Country Day	269	11.6
13	Madison Heights Lamphere	275	12.1
14	Garden City	437	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Fenton	53	1.5	51	95+
2	Pinckney	54	1.6	49	95+
3	Detroit Country Day	93	3.0		95+
4	Dearborn Divine Child	143	4.4
5	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	156	5.3
6	Linden	156	5.3
7	Oak Park	188	7.1
8	Lake Fenton	203	7.8
9	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	236	9.0
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	266	10.2
11	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	291	11.5
12	Garden City	293	11.4
13	Pontiac	403	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	10	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	3.1
3	12	Julia Garcia	Pinckney	3.2
4	11	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
5	12	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.1
6	11	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	8.6
7	9	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	10.0
8	10	Molly Roberts	Linden	10.3
9	10	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	12.2
10	10	Lucy Bott	Fenton	12.6
11	11	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	13.6
12	12	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.0
13	10	Courtney Floeter	Linden	14.4
14	11	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	17.4
15	10	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	18.9
16	12	Roisin Whelan	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.2
17	10	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.7
18	11	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	22.1
19	10	Valyntina Garcia	Pinckney	23.1
20	9	Julia Geisz	Bloomfield Hills Marian	24.8
21	12	Brooklyn Reason	Pinckney	25.5
22	12	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.2
23	11	Isabella Kaminskas	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	26.7
24	10	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.7
25	11	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.8
26	11	Leah Thomas	Oak Park	27.0
27	10	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.0
28	11	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	28.7
29	11	Sidney Shepard	Linden	29.7
30	10	Morgan Hamilton	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Gavin Katic	Fenton	1.6
2	11	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.2
3	12	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
4	10	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	5.0
5	11	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
6	12	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	6.7
7	10	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	7.1
8	9	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	8.9
9	10	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	10.6
10	10	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	11.1
11	11	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	12.6
12	11	Ben Panter	Fenton	13.5
13	9	Alex Hagerty	Pinckney	17.0
14	11	Jackson Defina	Fenton	17.1
15	11	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	17.4
16	12	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	19.6
17	11	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	20.0
18	11	Jackson Martin	Fenton	20.0
19	11	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	20.1
20	10	Bo Cooke	Pinckney	20.4
21	10	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	20.5
22	10	Abram Larsen	Fenton	20.8
23	12	Shondell Warren	Oak Park	20.9
24	11	Grant Hunault	Fenton	21.7
25	9	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	24.3
26	10	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	26.7
27	9	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	28.4
28	10	Ben Sushynski	Linden	28.9
29	9	Kipton Smyth	Linden	32.1
30	12	Carter Johnston	Linden	33.2

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Wow, these teams are close. Each gender, too! A projected six points separate 2^nd through 4^th on the boys’ side, 14 are between 1^st and 4^th for the girls. St. Clair and Yale are in the mix of it for both, Macomb Lutheran North and Armada will feel the pressure in the girls’ race, and the Grosse Pointe North boys have a chance of advancing for another week.

Common competitions can give you a semblance of a clue. For instance, Yale’s girls were able to best Armada in the past two BWAC Jamborees. Or they could confuse you, as St. Clair used their depth to beat Yale at the Marysville Invite. But then if you look at a deep Holly field, St. Clair and Armada were neck and neck.

On the boys’ side, similar confusion abounds. During MAC Red meets and at Gabriel Richard, St. Clair held a significant margin over Grosse Pointe North. The most recent event for the two, Haunted Harvest, featured a GPN win, their pack tightly-wound with four boys between 17:50 and 18:10. Where St. Clair has gone, Yale has followed, extremely close in margin. Less than 5 points separated the squads at Brooks and Muskrat, the gap was 3 places at Portage. Extrapolating from that, you gotta assume that Yale > GPN, but not if it’s last week’s GPN.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Armada	64	1.7	53	95+
2	Macomb Lutheran North	72	2.6	26	69
3	St. Clair	75	2.7	14	73
4	Yale	78	3.1	7	60
5	Marysville	107	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	154	6.0
7	Warren Regina	194	7.3
8	Grosse Pointe North	203	7.7
9	Detroit University Prep	257	9.0
10	Harper Woods	309	10.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Macomb Lutheran North	45	1.1	94	95+
2	St. Clair	71	2.9		74
3	Yale	72	2.9		77
4	Grosse Pointe North	77	3.2		49
5	Marysville	106	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	151	6.0
7	Armada	179	7.0
8	Eastpointe	262	8.2
9	Harper Woods	272	8.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	1.2
2	9	Claire Albrecht	Armada	2.8
3	10	Saige Cole	Yale	3.3
4	10	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	5.4
5	12	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	5.9
6	12	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	8.4
7	9	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	8.5
8	11	Lillian Bender	Yale	9.6
9	10	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	10.5
10	12	Joselyn Chapman	Marysville	11.1
11	9	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	12.7
12	11	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	13.0
13	10	Malani May	Detroit University Prep	16.7
14	11	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	16.8
15	11	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	18.2
16	11	Kenzie LeVey	Marysville	20.1
17	9	Josie Komarowski	St. Clair	20.6
18	11	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	20.6
19	11	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	21.1
20	11	Helena Reiff	Armada	21.8
21	11	Ava Childers	Yale	22.1
22	10	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	22.2
23	10	Peyton Simmons	Marysville	22.4
24	9	Stella Bishop	St. Clair	23.0
25	12	Lydia McBride	Marysville	25.3
26	11	Addison Noteboom	Armada	25.5
27	10	Maylin Parish	Grosse Pointe North	25.6
28	12	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	26.5
29	10	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	26.9
30	9	Ariana Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	27.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.3
2	12	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	3.7
3	11	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	4.6
4	12	Nolan Korolden	Yale	5.0
5	12	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.3
6	10	Brady VanConant	Yale	8.7
7	11	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	9.8
8	12	Neil Orlowski	Grosse Pointe North	11.3
9	10	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	11.8
10	11	Brendan Koza	Marysville	11.8
11	11	Antonino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	11.8
12	12	Sam Parish	Grosse Pointe North	12.6
13	11	Logan Rhodes	Yale	12.8
14	10	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	13.5
15	9	Caleb McBride	Marysville	14.5
16	12	Paul Stephens	Grosse Pointe North	15.0
17	11	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	17.7
18	9	David Matthews	St. Clair	18.2
19	10	Dylan Phillips	Grosse Pointe North	18.4
20	12	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	19.1
21	12	William Haskins	Macomb Lutheran North	19.4
22	10	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.4
23	12	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	23.5
24	12	Leo Bearss	Yale	23.7
25	12	Robert Carrigan	Armada	25.1
26	12	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	27.2
27	10	Logan Carrier	Yale	27.7
28	10	Cole Carless	Yale	27.9
29	10	William Henze	Grosse Pointe North	29.0
30	11	Korey LeVey	Marysville	29.5

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Chelsea vs. Adrian boys, with a hint of Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard. Luckily, we’ve got plenty of SEC White runs between the first two and Jackson/Portage between all three.

Between the Maples and Bulldogs, Adrian was able to carry the SEC White action. Barely, scraping by with small margins over Chelsea. The common theme of separation was in the middle of the pack, with kids such as Easton Coscarelli and Landin Fisher driving enough of a gap to gain enough of a point advantage.

Outside of SEC play, the Jackson Invite appears to be the closest comparison to a regional field. And there, Chelsea’s depth stepped up and closed the gap on Adrian, allowing the Bulldogs to place 2^nd, just ahead of both Adrian and Gabriel Richard. And then there’s the Gabriel Richard Invite, where AAGR’s depth was ahead of Chelsea’s, enough to open up a 10-point gap in the Medium Schools division.

Legitimate arguments for each school!

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	New Boston Huron	73	2.0		95+
3	Adrian	99	3.0		95+
4	Chelsea	138	4.7
5	Tecumseh	142	4.9
6	Carleton Airport	150	5.4
7	Milan	199	7.5
8	Grosse Ile	202	7.7
9	Monroe Jefferson	219	8.8
10	Trenton	253	10.1
11	Dundee	267	10.8
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	375	12.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Chelsea	71	1.6	55	95+
2	Adrian	77	2.0	30	95+
3	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	88	2.6	15	92
4	Tecumseh	119	4.2		6
5	New Boston Huron	147	5.7
6	Carleton Airport	148	5.8
7	Flat Rock	164	6.7
8	Monroe Jefferson	187	7.8
9	Grosse Ile	216	8.9
10	Milan	286	10.4
11	Dundee	309	11.0
12	Riverview	324	11.6
13	Trenton	398	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.2
2	10	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.7
3	11	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	4.3
4	12	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	4.9
5	11	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	5.4
6	10	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	7.0
7	10	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	7.3
8	12	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.0
9	12	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.3
10	9	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	10.7
11	12	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	11.4
12	10	Regan Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.0
13	12	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	14.1
14	11	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	15.3
16	12	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	15.5
17	11	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	16.5
18	12	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	16.7
19	11	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	20.0
20	12	Avery Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.1
21	10	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	22.6
22	9	Loretta Frasca	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	24.3
23	10	Ellia Egle	New Boston Huron	24.9
24	10	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	25.6
25	11	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	26.2
26	9	Randee Mulherin	Monroe Jefferson	26.8
27	10	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	27.9
28	10	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	28.1
29	11	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	29.4
30	10	Morgan McMichael	Tecumseh	33.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Moises Salazar Jr.	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	2.8
3	12	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	4.2
4	12	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	5.5
5	11	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	6.5
6	12	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	6.7
7	9	Parker Smith	Adrian	8.4
8	10	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	10.9
9	11	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	12.4
10	11	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	12.9
11	12	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.9
12	12	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	14.2
13	12	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	15.2
14	11	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	16.2
15	10	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	17.4
16	9	Mason Martin	Milan	17.5
17	10	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	17.5
18	9	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	17.8
19	10	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	20.5
20	11	Carter Fenner	Adrian	21.4
21	10	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	21.7
22	12	Miles Dell	Chelsea	24.3
23	11	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	25.8
24	10	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.1
25	10	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.4
26	11	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.6
27	12	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	27.7
28	9	Jonathan Love	Chelsea	29.0
29	11	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	29.5
30	11	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	30.4

Uncategorized

2025 Regional Projections: Division 3

October 22, 2025October 22, 2025 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Your D3 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 19

Any Big Battles?

Both of the individual races and most of the potential qualifying look to be set in stone. Traditional winner Traverse City St. Francis is in there in both genders, Charlevoix and their devious Hunter Eaton are elite within D3, Harbor Springs hasn’t blinked when moving down a division, Coach King has been a shot in the arm for the Elk Rapids frontrunners. But there’s one spot with a bit of intrigue. Who may be the other girls team to advance?

When there’s a team with 65%+ chance of qualifying, then many with lower odds, that can often mean that the favorite is consistent, then the others either have a single great team effort, or athletes individually finding great efforts on separate occasions. Boyne City has been the most consistent team of the bunch, beating Kalkaska in their home invite, the Northern Shores Championship, and in a regional preview here (also beating Grayling). Although you see three wins over Kalkaska, that one here on the regional course came down to the sixth runner. Two of the Blazers trailed the nearest competitor by less than two seconds, so it’s not as if Kalkaska can’t pull ahead of BC.

Roscommon has shown that they have the goods, evidenced by races at Northern Michigan and Bluejay. In my mind, it’s an added bonus and assurance when a team displays its best efforts in meets with great significance. The Bucks were able to place 6^th at Northern Michigan, although they did score below Elk Rapids.

Maybe it’s Standish Sterling, a team that’s had personal bests from all five of their girls at each of their last two meets, Freeland and the JPC Final. Or Grayling, whose depth has shown rapid growth in the past few weeks.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	55	1.1	94	95+
2	Harbor Springs	87	2.0	6	95+
3	Boyne City	130	3.6		66
4	Standish-Sterling	146	5.5		13
5	Roscommon	148	5.7		8
6	Kalkaska	152	6.3		5
7	Elk Rapids	153	6.5
8	Charlevoix	157	7.1
9	Grayling	165	7.5		5
10	Cheboygan	187	9.7
11	Tawas	326	11.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Charlevoix	27	1.0	95+	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	97	2.2		95+
3	Harbor Springs	114	2.9		95+
4	Roscommon	148	4.5
5	Grayling	157	5.1
6	Boyne City	174	6.6
7	Kalkaska	185	7.7
8	Fairview	188	7.9
9	Standish-Sterling	195	8.6
10	Mancelona	196	8.6
11	Cheboygan	233	11.0
12	Oscoda	314	12.0
13	Tawas	393	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	1.3
2	12	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	2.4
3	11	Nico Triebold	Grayling	5.4
4	11	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	5.8
5	10	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	6.0
6	10	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	6.5
7	9	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon	7.0
8	12	Maryrose Halberg	Charlevoix	9.3
9	11	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	10.9
10	10	Gabi Rempe	Harbor Springs	12.0
11	11	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	14.0
12	10	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	14.9
13	9	Ruby Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	17.4
14	12	Delaney Little	Boyne City	18.1
15	12	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	18.1
16	11	Laura Janisse	Roscommon	18.2
17	11	Addy Wiers	Charlevoix	19.3
18	9	Isabella Wegener	Kalkaska	20.3
19	11	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	20.4
20	12	Christina Pake	Standish-Sterling	21.0
21	11	Briahna Campbell	Cheboygan	22.4
22	11	Cloee Rupp	Cheboygan	22.9
23	10	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	23.3
24	11	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	24.1
25	12	Laura Spyker	Standish-Sterling	24.6
26	10	Betty Cordner	Traverse City St. Francis	24.7
27	12	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	25.8
28	12	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	26.5
29	9	Elin Jager	Traverse City St. Francis	27.3
30	9	Allison Kujawski	Boyne City	29.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	1.2
2	11	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	2.5
3	12	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	3.1
4	12	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	4.0
5	11	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	5.3
6	11	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon	6.8
7	10	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	7.2
8	11	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	9.5
9	11	Thomas Janisse	Roscommon	11.9
10	11	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	12.0
11	10	Aurie Selph	Charlevoix	13.2
12	10	Liam Mahaffy	Grayling	14.4
13	11	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	15.7
14	9	Louis Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	16.6
15	12	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	17.1
16	11	Eli Williamson	Standish-Sterling	17.9
17	10	Jacob Muladore	Charlevoix	18.4
18	9	Landon Baas	Harbor Springs	19.0
19	11	Finn Parish	Boyne City	19.4
20	12	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	19.6
21	12	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	20.9
22	10	Harper Mullet	Traverse City St. Francis	21.2
23	11	Nate Gorman	Traverse City St. Francis	21.6
24	9	Liam Piotrowski	Oscoda	22.2
25	10	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	23.9
26	9	Mathieu Moore	Grayling	29.5
27	10	Charlie Denherder	Elk Rapids	29.5
28	12	Andrew Kiefer	Cheboygan	31.0
29	10	Hayden Mohrhardt	Traverse City St. Francis	31.6
30	10	Elliot Smith	Mancelona	31.8

REGION 20

Any Big Battles?

The preseason projections thought there’d be a struggle between the two squads, but they misfired on the gender. Twice, Benzie Central and Hart have raced in the same division, once in the same meet. When placed on the line together, the Pirates have come out ahead, their biggest gaps often coming later in the scoring. At Bluejay, the Huskies competed earlier in the day and the Pirates late, Benzie Central averaging much faster times in the cooler morning air. But I’m not sure that the heat completely made up for the gap in the two performances. Of course, common invites aren’t the only factor here. Benzie has the home course advantage and recent evidence that they can roll there, winning the final NWC Jamboree with four of their varsity pack racing to personal bests.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Benzie Central	68	1.5	59	95+
2	Hart	72	1.8	36	95+
3	McBain	91	2.9	5	93
4	Reed City	116	4.0		6
5	Manistee	141	5.1
6	Leroy Pine River	154	6.1
7	Mason County Central	164	6.9
8	Lake City	182	7.8
9	Manton	225	9.2
10	Shelby	239	9.9
11	Morley-Stanwood	304	11.0
12	White Cloud	364	12.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Benzie Central	50	1.0	95+	95+
2	Hart	76	2.3		95+
3	Lake City	82	2.7		95+
4	Reed City	110	4.1		5
5	Manton	133	4.9
6	McBain	195	6.4
7	Leroy Pine River	202	6.8
8	Harrison	230	8.5
9	Manistee	235	9.0
10	Kingsley	243	9.5
11	Mason County Central	273	11.0
12	Shelby	293	11.9

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	1.9
2	10	Caelyn Torry	McBain	2.7
3	10	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	4.6
4	11	Natalie Rosema	Hart	5.1
5	11	Betsy Gooden	Manton	5.5
6	11	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	5.6
7	10	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	8.3
8	11	Hallee Hervey	Reed City	10.7
9	10	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	11.0
10	10	Faith Helsel	Lake City	12.1
11	9	Emma Miller	Hart	12.2
12	10	Alaina Schaner	Hart	12.2
13	10	Ingrid Molins Rallo	Benzie Central	12.5
14	10	Hattie Driver	Manistee	15.6
15	9	Kristina Bott	Benzie Central	15.6
16	9	Lily Sisson	Leroy Pine River	16.4
17	11	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	17.4
18	9	Mya Bronkema	McBain	18.1
19	12	Georgia Haag	Manistee	18.2
20	10	Bryn Riley	Hart	19.2
21	10	Harlow Hughes	Lake City	20.2
22	11	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	21.3
23	12	Nevaeh Battice	Mason County Central	22.3
24	10	Luisa Vander Zwaag	Hart	23.1
25	11	Kayden Hinton	McBain	26.3
26	11	Noel Parker	Shelby	26.7
27	9	Grace Wilson	McBain	27.3
28	10	Madilynn Fancett	McBain	29.5
29	12	Makayla Watkins	Reed City	30.4
30	12	Sahara Davis	Reed City	30.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	1.7
2	12	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	3.6
3	12	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	5.1
4	10	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	6.2
5	12	Connor Helsel	Lake City	6.6
6	10	Edison Huizinga	Manistee	6.6
7	12	Paul Saladin	Reed City	7.5
8	11	Logan Young	Harrison	7.6
9	10	Timothy Wolff	Hart	13.3
10	12	Kyle Vincent	Benzie Central	13.5
11	11	Aiden Schaner	Hart	14.0
12	10	Azrael Horvath	Manton	14.7
13	11	Brayden Spears	Lake City	16.1
14	11	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	16.2
15	9	Liam Plainte	Houghton Lake	16.3
16	12	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	16.7
17	12	Wyatt Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	17.0
18	10	Silas Ackley	Hart	18.4
19	11	Mason Opalewski	Hart	19.5
20	11	Braydn Winkel	McBain	20.4
21	12	Ethan Baker	Leroy Pine River	20.7
22	10	Trevor VanderKodde	Hart	20.7
23	10	Grant Ackley	Hart	21.3
24	10	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	21.5
25	10	Walter Armstrong	Benzie Central	24.7
26	10	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	24.8
27	11	Owen VanderVlucht	Hart	26.2
28	11	Carter Root	Lake City	28.2
29	12	Aaron Allen	Reed City	28.7
30	11	Jackson Poll	Mason County Central	30.4

REGION 21

Any Big Battles?

Gonna be a fun one for the boys in all facets. For the win, two teams that have hovered around the top-ten rankings – Holland Black River and The Potter’s House. Potentially moving on for another week of bonding and racing as a team – NorthPointe Christian, Western Michigan Christian, and Covenant Christian.

There have been plenty of matchups between the prior two and latter three. Four times have HBR and TPH toed the line together, the Pumas holding a 3-1 edge. Throughout the first three races, the Pumas held the edge in a multitude of ways, but especially on depth late in the scoring. At Portage, Black River was able to pull ahead, although Potter’s House was missing one of their prime scorers.

Of the latter three, Covenant Christian has been the most consistent. The Charger top-five has been able to average the equivalent of a sub-18 in five meets. Western Michigan Christian has occasionally shown the juice, four of the Warrior boys gravitating under 18:00 at Portage, a meet where they were ahead of all but Black River. A week earlier at Allendale, NorthPointe had flipped the above, besting WMC and trailing HBR by only 8 points. Many arguments for state inclusion, but only three spots.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	66	1.9	45	95+
2	Grandville Calvin Christian	68	2.0	30	95+
3	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	72	2.4	23	85
4	Kent City	91	3.7		20
5	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	197	6.0
6	Belding	203	6.5
7	Holland Black River	212	7.4
8	Lakeview	215	7.7
9	Newaygo	225	8.7
10	Saranac	227	8.7
11	The Potter’s House	293	11.3
12	North Muskegon	311	12.3
13	Delton-Kellogg	317	12.6
14	Montague	355	14.1
15	Ravenna	371	14.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	The Potter’s House	75	1.4	68	95+
2	Holland Black River	85	2.0	25	95+
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	111	3.9		45
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	114	4.0		28
5	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	114	4.1		27
6	Montague	139	5.6
7	Delton-Kellogg	215	7.6
8	Saranac	223	8.1
9	Kent City	239	8.8
10	Lakeview	261	10.0
11	Belding	279	10.7
12	Newaygo	304	11.8
13	Grandville Calvin Christian	332	13.0
14	Ravenna	365	14.0
15	North Muskegon	438	15.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Elliana Max	Kent City	1.0
2	11	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	2.5
3	12	Aletta Scholten	Grandville Calvin Christian	4.7
4	9	Kylie Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	5.0
5	11	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	5.3
6	10	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City	5.5
7	11	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	9.5
8	11	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	10.0
9	11	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	10.2
10	11	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	11.4
11	10	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian	11.4
12	10	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	13.8
13	10	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.5
14	9	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.3
15	9	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.5
16	9	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City	16.7
17	9	Jenny Woznick	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	16.9
18	10	Esther Cahill	Saranac	18.0
19	12	Maria Campbell	Grandville Calvin Christian	20.1
20	12	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	21.0
21	10	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.0
22	10	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	21.5
23	9	Eliana Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	22.6
24	12	Jennifer Popp	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	22.7
25	11	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.0
26	9	Sonya Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.6
27	11	Rochelle Liu	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	26.4
28	9	Kyla Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	27.7
29	11	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	29.4
30	10	Naomi Telman	Holland Black River	29.8

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	1.7
2	12	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	1.8
3	12	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	3.8
4	11	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	8.4
5	11	David Castrejon	Newaygo	9.7
6	11	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	9.8
7	11	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.4
8	10	Nolan Kessler	Montague	10.6
9	12	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River	11.2
10	11	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	11.4
11	11	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River	12.5
12	11	Gibson Smith	Montague	14.6
13	11	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	14.9
14	12	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.4
15	11	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	15.5
16	12	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House	15.5
17	11	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	16.0
18	10	Avery Carlson	Holland Black River	17.8
19	9	Luke Worley	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.4
20	12	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.5
21	11	Eli Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.7
22	11	Mattias Tuls	The Potter’s House	21.5
23	11	Landon Madden	Delton-Kellogg	23.1
24	11	Evan Buteyn	Grandville Calvin Christian	23.8
25	12	Isaac Westra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	26.0
26	10	Logan Sicilia	The Potter’s House	27.1
27	11	Nick Leonhard	The Potter’s House	27.4
28	11	Landon Kuperus	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.9
29	12	Christopher Delaney	The Potter’s House	32.2
30	12	Kaden Mingerink	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	33.3

REGION 22

Any Big Battles?

His junior year has almost identically matched the same pattern as his sophomore season, just a minute faster. John Keser hung out in the 18’s for much of the ’24 season, then made a dramatic shift late. He hit a 17:09 at Portage, nearly matched the time with his regional effort, then broke into the 16’s at State. This fall, he began in the mid-17’s, made a breakthrough at Berrien County, then has extended into the very low-16’s. He’s got the top time (and rating), but is closely followed by two Saugatuck boys – Marcus Silva and Grant Rehkopf. Speaking of trends and looking to the past, both of the Trailblazers ran their best to close the previous season and are trending that way again. Regardless of what goes down individually, I know these three will have another gear for MIS.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Saugatuck	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Bridgman	79	2.1		95+
3	Watervliet	99	3.0		91
4	Fennville	136	4.8		5
5	Buchanan	144	5.2
6	Constantine	146	5.3
7	Niles Brandywine	180	7.2
8	Hartford	189	7.6
9	Schoolcraft	234	9.2
10	Bloomingdale	264	10.2
11	Kalamazoo Christian	274	10.5
12	Bangor	344	12.3
13	Coloma	363	13.1
14	Comstock	384	13.7

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Saugatuck	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Buchanan	57	2.1		95+
3	Schoolcraft	78	2.9		95+
4	Bangor	153	4.5
5	Hartford	155	4.6
6	Watervliet	190	6.6
7	Constantine	200	7.2
8	Fennville	203	7.3
9	Bridgman	235	9.1
10	Parchment	253	10.1
11	Coloma	272	11.3
12	Bloomingdale	276	11.3
13	Kalamazoo Christian	338	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	1.5
2	12	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	2.6
3	9	Tala Carlin	Buchanan	3.6
4	11	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	3.8
5	11	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	4.5
6	9	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck	7.7
7	12	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	8.1
8	9	Allison Burns	Constantine	8.6
9	12	Savannah VanDenBerg	Saugatuck	9.2
10	10	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	10.6
11	9	Daniella Romero	Watervliet	11.8
12	10	Anna Howell	Bridgman	12.1
13	9	Anna Davidhizar	Constantine	12.9
14	10	Kaylin Pinkowski	Bridgman	15.1
15	11	Juliana Morseau	Hartford	16.4
16	10	Miranda Lowell	Watervliet	16.8
17	9	Ryann Monroe	Saugatuck	17.6
18	10	Evangeline Brown	Bridgman	23.3
19	11	Stella Ullig	Bridgman	23.3
20	10	Payton Yeske	Watervliet	23.7
21	10	Katelyn Brown	Watervliet	24.8
22	12	Brianna Zwar	Watervliet	26.3
23	12	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	26.3
24	11	Paytin Featherstone	Constantine	27.0
25	11	Abigail Mulder	Schoolcraft	27.8
26	12	Samantha Giles	Fennville	28.3
27	11	Anika Weurding	Lawton	28.5
28	10	Abigail Douglass	Bridgman	28.8
29	9	Laila Wogatzke	Niles Brandywine	34.3
30	10	MaKenzie McClintock	Kalamazoo Christian	35.1

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	John Keser	Buchanan	2.6
2	11	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	2.8
3	11	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	2.9
4	10	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	5.5
5	11	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.0
6	9	Reese Devisser	Schoolcraft	7.7
7	12	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	8.0
8	12	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	8.3
9	9	Sam Casiano	Watervliet	8.7
10	12	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	8.8
11	11	Xavier Pompey	Coloma	10.6
12	11	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	12.4
13	11	Colin Bauer	Schoolcraft	12.6
14	12	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	15.9
15	12	Ace Drewyor	Schoolcraft	18.8
16	11	Collin Bauer	Schoolcraft	19.3
17	12	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	19.4
18	12	Eli Martin	Schoolcraft	19.8
19	10	Carter Brouwer	Bangor	21.2
20	11	Carson Pullins	Bangor	21.6
21	9	Carson Ernsberger	Bridgman	21.8
22	9	Tony Perez	Watervliet	21.9
23	12	Isaac Cruz	Saugatuck	22.3
24	10	Ashton Skinner	Saugatuck	22.8
25	10	Josiah Passig	Buchanan	25.5
26	9	Bentley Molitor	Buchanan	25.8
27	11	Alex Diaz	Hartford	26.6
28	11	Josaias Robles	Hartford	31.4
29	12	Aiden Woods	Comstock	31.7
30	12	Trap Abbott	Bangor	33.0

REGION 23

Any Big Battles?

Will Hulin vs. Caleb Blonde, or whomever wants to slide in there and steal a title. That could be Clint Couchman, who has shown he can handle tough conditions, such as his 16:28 at Spartan. Perhaps Chad Tyson, who has put together solid efforts in two of Michigan’s bigger invites (Bluejay and Portage). Maybe a Logan Youngman, who was ahead of Hulin at Sturgis and the others at Jackson.

Hulin has consistently pushed out the best races of the region. A year ago, the Centreville athlete crept his way into the 16’s by the end of the year. The improvement hasn’t stopped, as he’s been a steady figure in the low-16’s, just on the cusp of breaking into a new time zone. Blonde is the fastest returner from 2024’s region and the 2^nd fastest returner in the entire division. He hasn’t quite matched the 15:44 from last fall’s State Finals, but the trend is pointing toward a new PR by season’s end, Caleb racing to three sub-16’s in a row.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	47	1.2	85	95+
2	Olivet	57	1.9	15	95+
3	Bronson	93	3.0		95+
4	Hanover-Horton	143	4.5
5	Jonesville	155	5.0
6	Napoleon	179	6.3
7	Onsted	188	6.9
8	Union City	203	7.8
9	Centreville	229	9.2
10	Sand Creek	232	9.4
11	Homer	268	10.9
12	Hillsdale	307	12.0
13	Quincy	359	13.1
14	Springport	392	13.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	Hanover-Horton	83	2.4		95+
3	Jonesville	88	2.6		95+
4	Centreville	211	6.0
5	Quincy	213	6.3
6	Sand Creek	223	7.2
7	Onsted	225	7.7
8	Bronson	228	8.2
9	Napoleon	229	8.3
10	Union City	237	9.3
11	Hillsdale	240	9.8
12	Brooklyn Columbia Central	241	9.9
13	Homer	281	12.8
14	Olivet	293	13.6
15	Springport	404	15.1
16	Galesburg-Augusta	434	15.9

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.2
2	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	2.0
3	9	Lily Britton	Olivet	3.7
4	12	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	4.2
5	12	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.4
6	10	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	6.7
7	9	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	7.5
8	12	Emily Peters	Olivet	9.3
9	11	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	11.2
10	9	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet	11.6
11	9	Mila Scheele	Jackson Lumen Christi	13.3
12	11	Miriam Sanchez	Bronson	14.9
13	9	Ella Worthing	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.1
14	11	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	15.9
15	11	Allison Gautsche	Union City	16.8
16	11	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	19.8
17	12	Sophie Patrick	Homer	19.9
18	10	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	20.4
19	12	Lillian Ambler	Homer	20.9
20	10	Sophia Trachsel	Jackson Lumen Christi	21.1
21	12	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	21.3
22	10	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	23.8
23	11	Keira Knight	Jonesville	23.9
24	11	Joleane Gulledge	Jonesville	24.2
25	11	Rachel Devrie	Jackson Lumen Christi	25.3
26	12	Bryn Biela	Hanover-Horton	27.7
27	9	Piper Grigsby	Bronson	29.6
28	9	Emme Naylor	Napoleon	29.8
29	12	Emma Grulke	Onsted	30.0
30	10	Gabby Gaydosh	Brooklyn Columbia Central	33.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Will Hulin	Centreville	2.3
2	11	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	3.2
3	11	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	3.5
4	11	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	4.0
5	10	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	4.9
6	12	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.1
7	11	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.2
8	10	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.8
9	12	John Edler	Homer	11.6
10	12	Ben Gautsche	Union City	12.1
11	12	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.7
12	11	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	12.8
13	11	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	13.3
14	11	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	13.7
15	10	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	14.6
16	12	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	16.5
17	11	Ethan Huff	Homer	16.6
18	10	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	18.0
19	9	Bryce Youngman	Hillsdale	21.3
20	10	Chris Durfey	Onsted	21.3
21	11	Nicklas Holmes	Onsted	24.1
22	10	Jude Wentzloff	Jackson Lumen Christi	24.6
23	10	Hunter Walker	Quincy	25.9
24	11	Cullen Decker	Union City	26.3
25	10	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	27.2
26	10	Anderson Cook	Hanover-Horton	27.6
27	12	Andrew Norman	Napoleon	27.8
28	11	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	28.2
29	11	Brayton Cosby	Bronson	31.2
30	12	Chayse Jensen	Quincy	33.2

REGION 24

Any Big Battles?

Not really! Region 24 appears to be very undramatic. If there are any heroics, I’ll be present to watch.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	90	2.4		95+
3	Bath	93	2.6		95+
4	Chesaning	131	4.3
5	Millington	139	4.8
6	Perry	167	6.6
7	Laingsburg	175	7.2
8	New Lothrop	175	7.2
9	Ovid-Elsie	196	8.8
10	Montrose	215	9.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Stanton Central Montcalm	44	1.0	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	73	2.1		95+
3	Montrose	91	3.0		95+
4	Chesaning	130	4.5
5	Otisville LakeVille	139	5.1
6	Laingsburg	153	6.1
7	Ovid-Elsie	157	6.5
8	Bath	186	7.9
9	Millington	225	9.3
10	New Lothrop	231	9.6

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.2
2	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.2
3	12	Abigail Reis	Millington	3.2
4	12	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	4.5
5	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.7
6	12	Anna Poppema	Bath	6.2
7	12	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	9.0
8	11	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.1
9	11	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.3
10	9	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop	11.4
11	10	Ruby Gross	Chesaning	11.9
12	9	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia	12.0
13	11	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.3
14	10	Courtney Lawhorne	Bath	14.9
15	12	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	17.4
16	12	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	17.9
17	9	Teagan Kuykendall	Bath	18.2
18	9	Claire Burrows	Millington	19.5
19	9	Olivia Roseberry	Perry	19.8
20	10	Takoda Holicki	Montrose	20.7
21	9	Brynn Burrows	Millington	21.2
22	12	Africa Beltran	Bath	21.5
23	10	Leah Theile	Chesaning	21.6
24	10	Ali Hunt	New Lothrop	25.5
25	10	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	25.6
26	10	Alonna Neumann	Chesaning	26.1
27	12	Isabella Nalewyko	Montrose	28.4
28	10	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	29.0
29	11	Claire Schmidtfranz	Perry	29.7
30	12	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	30.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	12	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	2.7
3	10	Owen Poppema	Bath	3.1
4	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.2
5	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	5.3
6	10	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	6.4
7	12	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.9
8	12	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.2
9	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.6
10	10	Eli Hobson	Montrose	10.0
11	11	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.4
12	10	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.4
13	11	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	14.5
14	12	Jaycob Hipps	Montrose	15.2
15	12	Ayden Hipps	Montrose	15.5
16	9	Mason Bollinger	Stanton Central Montcalm	17.4
17	11	Jobriel Octubre	Chesaning	19.1
18	12	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	19.7
19	10	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	22.6
20	9	Will Baese	Ovid-Elsie	22.9
21	11	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	23.3
22	11	Tyler Rockafellow	Perry	24.0
23	10	Masen O’Neil	Millington	25.4
24	11	Wyatt Linson	Otisville LakeVille	25.5
25	10	Michael Allen	Montrose	26.3
26	12	Reed Schroeder	Pewamo-Westphalia	26.3
27	12	Cole Maier	Chesaning	26.5
28	11	Tyne Evans	Stanton Central Montcalm	27.8
29	9	Jeffery Delong	Montrose	29.8
30	11	Travis Wright	Ovid-Elsie	30.2

REGION 25

Any Big Battles?

This is one of those wild regions, both in geography and a wide range of teams that could advance. Latitudinally, Region 25 is unmatched, 56 miles tall x 140 miles wide. Competitively, it hangs right with the best as well. In the mix for a qualifier are a whopping five boys teams and six(!) girls teams. Within the six girls teams are:

The long trekking Remus Chippewa Hills. They’re the favorite, largely because of their upper three (Dory Simon, Quinn Hatfield, and Peyton Nellis) who should be quick enough to stay out of the fray in the middle.

Ithaca, who’s seemingly always missing a girl. But when combined, their top-six have season bests of 22-flat and faster.

Saginaw Valley Lutheran, who holds TVC wins over the team above and the best team performance of any team sans Chippewa Hills. At Saginaw County, the Chargers placed 3^rd behind D2 standouts Freeland and Frankenmuth.

Midland Bullock Creek and Sanford-Meridian, who both had their best conference performance in the final JPC Jamboree. The Lancers outdueled the Mustangs by three points over at Shepherd.

Caro, coming off one of their better efforts of the year at Thumb Area. The Tigers are the queens of the Thumb, winning with three girls reaching under 21:00.

Both Bullock Creek and Caro have Wagener Park experience, with Bullock Creek taking a narrow win over the Tigers at last month’s Wagener Park Invite.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Remus Chippewa Hills	78	1.3	75	95+
2	Midland Bullock Creek	94	2.5	13	87
3	Ithaca	111	4.2	5	40
4	Caro	112	4.3		29
5	Sanford-Meridian	118	4.8		19
6	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	122	5.1		22
7	Pigeon-Laker	135	6.0
8	St. Louis	194	8.2
9	Hemlock	229	9.5
10	Sandusky	238	10.1
11	Reese	242	10.3

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ithaca	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Midland Bullock Creek	93	2.7		83
3	Caro	96	2.9		76
4	Sanford-Meridian	112	4.3		13
5	Pigeon-Laker	112	4.1		28
6	Reese	151	6.0
7	Beaverton	201	6.9
8	Carrollton	274	8.9
9	Farwell	284	9.6
10	Remus Chippewa Hills	291	9.9
11	Cass City	299	10.6
12	St. Louis	318	11.9
13	Sandusky	339	13.5
14	Pinconning	349	14.2
15	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	354	14.5
16	Hemlock	362	15.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Violet Tetil	Caro	1.1
2	10	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	2.7
3	11	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	4.4
4	12	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	4.9
5	10	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	7.5
6	9	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro	8.0
7	12	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.5
8	10	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	8.9
9	10	Peyton Nellis	Remus Chippewa Hills	11.1
10	11	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	11.9
11	9	Sage Palmer	Sandusky	12.7
12	11	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	13.1
13	11	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	14.3
14	10	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	14.4
15	11	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	14.6
16	10	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	15.4
17	10	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	15.7
18	12	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	17.4
19	9	Lexi Kinder	St. Louis	18.5
20	12	Maria Campo-Cossio Calderon	Bad Axe	21.6
21	9	Rebekah Huber	Midland Bullock Creek	26.1
22	11	Lydia Faubert	Hemlock	26.6
23	12	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	26.7
24	10	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	27.0
25	10	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	27.7
26	11	Adeline Ludwig	Midland Bullock Creek	29.3
27	9	Sara Guest	Midland Bullock Creek	30.3
28	9	Sophi Beach	Sanford-Meridian	30.8
29	11	Olivia Hooper	Pigeon-Laker	32.2
30	10	Charlee MacLaren	Ithaca	32.3

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Luke Herron	Caro	1.5
2	12	Landen Styka	Ithaca	3.0
3	12	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	4.6
4	11	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	4.9
5	12	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	4.9
6	11	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	5.8
7	9	Asher Putman	Reese	7.4
8	11	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	7.9
9	10	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	9.6
10	10	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	10.7
11	12	Duane Davis	Midland Bullock Creek	12.9
12	12	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	13.5
13	10	Brendan Plante	Midland Bullock Creek	16.8
14	12	Wesley Haines	Reese	17.4
15	12	James Schroder	Sanford-Meridian	17.6
16	11	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	18.1
17	12	Gage Spencer	Beaverton	18.4
18	11	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	19.0
19	11	Dillon Spilker	Sanford-Meridian	19.1
20	9	Jacob Daisy	Caro	20.8
21	10	Luke Mulder	Midland Bullock Creek	20.9
22	9	Zeke Rickwalt	Caro	22.0
23	11	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	23.1
24	11	Xander Huckins	Reese	23.2
25	12	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	24.4
26	10	Kale Miklovic	Pigeon-Laker	26.0
27	9	Walter Haag	Pigeon-Laker	27.3
28	10	Xavier Teneyuque	Carrollton	28.0
29	9	Silas Finney	Beaverton	28.4
30	11	Grady Galbraith	Hemlock	29.4

REGION 26

Any Big Battles?

Listed here in the summer, fallen a bit by mid-season, now back in the picture are the Ann Arbor Greenhills girls. The Gryphons are coming off an excellent performance at Gabriel Richard, with the majority of their varsity girls attaining a PR. They’re in competition with Leslie, a typical qualifier out of this region. The Blackhawks feature Hailey Creisher, one of the better (if not the best) girls in D3. The benefit of a girl such as Creisher is that Leslie will only need to score four.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Plymouth Christian Academy	79	2.2		95+
3	Leslie	100	3.1		75
4	Ann Arbor Greenhills	114	3.7		26
5	Algonac	168	5.4
6	Almont	178	6.1
7	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	190	6.6
8	Stockbridge	239	8.5
9	University Liggett	245	9.1
10	Clawson	257	10.0
11	Wixom St. Catherine	272	11.2
12	Marine City	272	11.1
13	New Haven	318	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	49	1.0	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Greenhills	94	2.5		95+
3	Plymouth Christian Academy	96	2.6		95+
4	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	138	4.7
5	Leslie	142	4.9
6	Algonac	147	5.5
7	Almont	178	7.1
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	193	7.9
9	New Haven	235	9.2
10	Clawson	260	10.3
11	Stockbridge	272	10.9
12	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	286	11.5
13	St. Clair Shores South Lake	347	13.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	1.2
2	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	2.6
3	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	2.8
4	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic	4.4
5	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	4.6
6	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	6.8
7	9	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.0
8	12	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	8.3
9	12	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.5
10	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	9.6
11	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	10.1
12	11	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	13.7
13	10	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	14.4
14	10	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	16.8
15	10	Rachel Meek	Plymouth Christian Academy	17.4
16	11	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	17.9
17	12	Laila Evola	Almont	18.8
18	9	Lucy Chapman	Stockbridge	20.0
19	11	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.6
20	10	Piper Lyon	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	21.9
21	12	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.3
22	11	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	23.9
23	10	Katie Vick	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.0
24	9	Kadence Ager	Algonac	25.2
25	10	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	25.3
26	10	Leah Flannery	Leslie	25.3
27	12	Zipporah Tran	Plymouth Christian Academy	26.0
28	10	Sophia Carson	University Liggett	26.9
29	12	Harper Cash	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.5
30	11	Emma Reimer	New Haven	30.8

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.0
2	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	5.2
3	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic	6.0
4	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge	6.2
5	12	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	6.6
6	11	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	7.0
7	9	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy	7.3
8	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven	8.7
9	12	Julian Walker	Algonac	10.1
10	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	10.4
11	10	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	10.9
12	12	Owen Beindit	Algonac	11.6
13	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	13.2
14	10	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	14.0
15	12	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.6
16	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	14.6
17	10	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	16.0
18	12	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.0
19	10	Landon Shimkus	Charyl Stockwell Academy	18.7
20	11	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	21.9
21	11	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	22.2
22	12	Blaise Demko	Lansing Catholic	22.9
23	9	Henry Cooper	Ann Arbor Greenhills	24.6
24	10	Jarel Adams	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.2
25	11	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	25.7
26	11	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	26.2
27	11	Colton Grzyb	Almont	26.7
28	12	Brody Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	27.7
29	12	Adam SaintOnge	Almont	29.5
30	11	Roger Mariani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.6

REGION 27

Any Big Battles?

Five boys teams vying for three spots. Two, Blissfield and Erie Mason, seem to be a step above the rest of the field. The Hudson Booster Invite is typically a place where the best D3 teams in the area compete, the Eagles and Royals claiming the top-two spots. There was a 5-point difference, with Erie Mason taking the win, largely thanks to their depth through the back end of their scorers.

Anyhow, Grass Lake, Monroe St. Mary CC, and Adrian Madison are in contention for the other spot. SMCC has run the best of late, with four boys in the mid-18’s or under in their 4^th place Huron League finish. Two common competitions exist between SMCC and the other two, the Falcons winning over Grass Lake at Portage and Madison at Huron. But much time has transpired since either of the two races. Madison was able to place in the upper half of the field at Lenawee County on the tough Gerber Hill course. Unable to compete for Grass Lake at Portage was Emmet Van Cleave, who busted out a sub-18 PR in his return at Hudson Mills.

Teams

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Blissfield	23	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grass Lake	66	2.0		95+
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	91	3.0		95+
4	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	112	4.0
5	Clinton	131	5.3
6	Erie Mason	140	5.9
7	Ida	152	6.8

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Erie Mason	53	1.2	84	95+
2	Blissfield	66	2.1	13	95+
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	88	3.6		48
4	Grass Lake	93	3.9		34
5	Adrian Madison	97	4.3		18
6	Clinton	147	6.0
7	Ida	189	7.0
8	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	223	8.1
9	Detroit Cristo Rey	238	8.9
10	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	300	10.0

Individuals

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hope Miller	Blissfield	1.0
2	12	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.0
3	12	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	3.2
4	11	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	4.5
5	10	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	5.3
6	11	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	6.3
7	12	Natalie Benitez	Blissfield	7.8
8	11	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	8.5
9	9	Josslyn Handy	Clinton	10.4
10	11	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	11.4
11	9	Mollie Yeager	Blissfield	11.5
12	11	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	13.7
13	12	Briar Wing	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	14.7
14	10	Ella Claus	Clinton	16.2
15	10	Grace Farrell	Clinton	16.7
16	10	Revan Ricker	Blissfield	17.5
17	11	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.5
18	9	Brynn Lusky	Ida	17.9
19	12	Taylor Hoppe	Grass Lake	18.1
20	12	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.1
21	11	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	21.3
22	10	Ava Kruise	Grass Lake	21.9
23	12	Lauren Peppers	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.9
24	12	Riley England	Erie Mason	25.5
25	11	Alexis Colburn	Erie Mason	26.5
26	10	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	27.5
27	11	Aspyn Browning	Grass Lake	28.0
28	11	Sierra DeBarr	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	28.1
29	9	Lana Benware	Ida	28.2
30	9	Haleigh Summers	Adrian Madison	28.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	1.1
2	10	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	2.9
3	12	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	3.2
4	10	Noah Sills	Blissfield	4.3
5	11	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	5.3
6	10	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	8.9
7	11	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	9.0
8	11	David Mills	Erie Mason	9.9
9	12	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	10.8
10	9	Haiden Bennett	Clinton	10.9
11	Sr	Connor Sherwood	Grass Lake	11.8
12	10	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.0
13	11	Porter Ravary	Erie Mason	13.3
14	12	Emmet Van Cleave	Grass Lake	14.8
15	9	Grant Rasor	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	14.8
16	12	Luke Stanley	Ida	17.5
17	10	Brady Bills	Blissfield	18.8
18	12	Brayden Hincher	Erie Mason	19.9
19	10	Beckett Klump	Blissfield	20.4
20	12	Bryson Ballantyne	Adrian Madison	21.9
21	10	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	22.2
22	11	Austin Strand	Clinton	22.7
23	10	Thomas Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.1
24	12	Nathanial Cole	Blissfield	23.2
25	12	Max Foldvary	Monroe St. Mary CC	25.1
26	12	Braedyn Tennant	Blissfield	25.4
27	9	Bryson Pooley	Blissfield	25.9
28	12	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	26.1
29	9	Luke Balaze	Grass Lake	27.4
30	10	John Verlinde	Adrian Madison	27.6

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSBOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSGIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONSBOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 1

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 2

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 3

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 4

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 5

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 6

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 7

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 8

Any Big Battles?

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REGION 9

Any Big Battles?

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GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSBOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONSGIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONSBOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

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GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS