With the coming of championship season comes race projections!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev. 15:30 210 15:45 205 16:00 200 16:15 195 16:30 190 200 7.91 MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev. 16:09 197 16:12 196 16:15 195 16:18 194 16:21 193 195 1.58 Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating 1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6 2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1 3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2 4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5 5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7 6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1 7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9 8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9 9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0 10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6 11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5 12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4 13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6 14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1 15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6 16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2 17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2 18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6 19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1 20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9 I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium. I’ve changed a few aspects to hopefully capture the latter and remain predictive on the former.
Anyhow, both Macomb County and Greater Lansing were kind enough to publish the entries for their meets, which makes my work a little easier. I know the world doesn’t revolve around making my life easier, but this is a side project on top working full-time and actually training for a race (Bigfoot 20 Mile in Ohio, working my way toward entering the world of ultras).
GREATER LANSING
Awards are given to the top-5 teams and top-30 individuals.
| Proj. Place | Girls | Proj. Score | Win % | Top 5 % |
| 1 | Lansing Catholic | 79 | 65 | 95+ |
| 2 | Okemos | 87 | 35 | 95+ |
| 3 | Grand Ledge | 166 | 83 | |
| 4 | Pewamo-Westphalia | 176 | 83 | |
| 5 | DeWitt | 183 | 71 | |
| 6 | Howell | 207 | 33 | |
| 7 | Mason | 210 | 18 | |
| 8 | East Lansing | 222 | 12 | |
| 9 | Olivet | 258 | ||
| 10 | Charlotte | 278 | ||
| 11 | St. Johns | 301 | ||
| 12 | Haslett | 313 | ||
| 13 | Williamston | 372 | ||
| 14 | Leslie | 398 | ||
| 15 | Bath | 449 | ||
| 16 | Ionia | 482 | ||
| 17 | Fowlerville | 492 | ||
| 18 | Holt | 518 | ||
| 19 | Lansing Christian | 554 | ||
| 20 | Alma | 555 |
| Proj. Place | Grade | Girls | Team |
| 1 | 10 | Rachel Smith | Okemos |
| 2 | 11 | Ava Schafer | St. Johns |
| 3 | 12 | Hailey Creisher | Leslie |
| 4 | 12 | October Harns | Okemos |
| 5 | 12 | Aviana Skinner | Grand Ledge |
| 6 | 11 | Alyssa Kramer | Pewamo-Westphalia |
| 7 | 10 | Remie Ellis | Eaton Rapids |
| 8 | 11 | Grace Wonch | Lansing Catholic |
| 9 | 10 | Tiya Feldpausch | Olivet |
| 10 | 12 | Miriam Kloha | St. Johns |
| 11 | 10 | Josie Bishop | Lansing Catholic |
| 12 | 10 | Ruby Petee | Mason |
| 13 | 9 | Calista George | Pewamo-Westphalia |
| 14 | 9 | Anna Drauer | Lansing Catholic |
| 15 | 9 | Lily Britton | Olivet |
| 16 | 10 | Jorga Wooledge | Mason |
| 17 | 10 | Isabelle Currie | Lansing Catholic |
| 18 | 12 | Fiona Whitmyer | Okemos |
| 19 | 12 | Lydia Jagger | Grand Ledge |
| 20 | 12 | Elizabeth Schafer | Okemos |
| 21 | 9 | Olive DiMassa | Howell |
| 22 | 11 | Avery Silvas | Charlotte |
| 23 | 10 | Lindsey Ludwig | Lansing Catholic |
| 24 | 11 | Colette Charchut | Haslett |
| 25 | 10 | Abby Crandell | Owosso |
| 26 | 10 | Emily Barrie | East Lansing |
| 27 | 9 | Brooklyn Takagishi | DeWitt |
| 28 | 9 | Brooke Wallace | Howell |
| 29 | 9 | Ava Montero | Grand Ledge |
| 30 | 11 | Morgan Allen | Mason |
| 31 | 12 | Frances Melinn | Lansing Catholic |
| 32 | 11 | Anna Halliday | Howell |
| 33 | 12 | Anna Poppema | Bath |
| 34 | 11 | Jenna Keilen | Pewamo-Westphalia |
| 35 | 10 | Kaila Cravotta | East Lansing |
| 36 | 9 | Cecilia Kelly | Williamston |
| 37 | 9 | Scarlett Popielarski | East Lansing |
| 38 | 10 | Mya Bower | Okemos |
| 39 | 10 | Rory Doepker | DeWitt |
| 40 | 12 | Isabella Taber | DeWitt |
| 41 | 11 | Sophia Schafer | Williamston |
| 42 | 10 | Emma Cook | DeWitt |
| 43 | 12 | Emily Agnew | DeWitt |
| 44 | 10 | Grace Mingerink | DeWitt |
| 45 | 12 | Emily Peters | Olivet |
| 46 | 9 | Dakota Budd | Haslett |
| 47 | 12 | Maddy Takagishi | DeWitt |
| 48 | 11 | Avery Miller | Lansing Catholic |
| 49 | 10 | Margaret Guerra-Harrison | Leslie |
| 50 | 9 | Jovie Overkamp | Ionia |
| Proj. Place | Boys | Proj. Score | Win % | Top 5 % |
| 1 | Grand Ledge | 54 | 87 | 95+ |
| 2 | Alma | 75 | 13 | 95+ |
| 3 | DeWitt | 171 | 95+ | |
| 4 | East Lansing | 172 | 94 | |
| 5 | Lansing Catholic | 192 | 61 | |
| 6 | Howell | 209 | 28 | |
| 7 | Okemos | 216 | 19 | |
| 8 | Holt | 241 | ||
| 9 | Owosso | 296 | ||
| 10 | Haslett | 304 | ||
| 11 | Williamston | 320 | ||
| 12 | Pewamo-Westphalia | 350 | ||
| 13 | Corunna | 399 | ||
| 14 | Portland | 422 | ||
| 15 | Leslie | 462 | ||
| 16 | Mason | 487 | ||
| 17 | Portland St. Patrick | 534 | ||
| 18 | St. Johns | 553 | ||
| 19 | Fowler | 567 | ||
| 20 | Ionia | 581 |
| Proj. Place | Grade | Boys | Team |
| 1 | 11 | Jack MacGregor | Howell |
| 2 | 12 | Ian Morgan | Okemos |
| 3 | 11 | Ezekiel Baltierra | Alma |
| 4 | 12 | Thomas Larson | Alma |
| 5 | 10 | Rylen Richey | Grand Ledge |
| 6 | 12 | Benjamin Rottier | Grand Ledge |
| 7 | 12 | Liam Preisser | East Lansing |
| 8 | 11 | Caelan Marsh | Grand Ledge |
| 9 | 10 | Rem Piper | Holt |
| 10 | 10 | Owen Poppema | Bath |
| 11 | 12 | Aiden Marple | DeWitt |
| 12 | 12 | Braylon Lenneman | DeWitt |
| 13 | 11 | Nolan Lounds | Grand Ledge |
| 14 | 10 | Duncan Palmer | Williamston |
| 15 | 12 | Alex McKennon | Grand Ledge |
| 16 | 12 | Adrian Abbott-Wallace | Holt |
| 17 | 10 | Liam Dewitt | Haslett |
| 18 | 12 | Luca Lebron | Alma |
| 19 | 12 | Jackson Gast | East Lansing |
| 20 | 11 | John Kowatch | Pewamo-Westphalia |
| 21 | 12 | Noah Devereaux | Laingsburg |
| 22 | 10 | Samuel Johnson | Alma |
| 23 | 11 | William Gancer | Stockbridge |
| 24 | 11 | James Tennes | Lansing Catholic |
| 25 | 12 | Andrew Feldpausch | Portland |
| 26 | 12 | Lucas Gates | Lansing Catholic |
| 27 | 10 | Kilian Boulware-Lopez | East Lansing |
| 28 | 12 | Malcolm Cesario | Okemos |
| 29 | 10 | Alex Weller | Howell |
| 30 | 9 | Nico Lebron | Alma |
| 31 | 9 | Livio Muzzin | DeWitt |
| 32 | 9 | Leonidas Erfourth | Owosso |
| 33 | 11 | Kevin Terpstra | Alma |
| 34 | 12 | Raymond Herek | Williamston |
| 35 | 11 | Everett Beach | Lansing Catholic |
| 36 | 10 | Teddy Weber | Williamston |
| 37 | 11 | Kenneth Mangles | Leslie |
| 38 | 11 | Trevon Johnson | Holt |
| 39 | 11 | David DeLand | Howell |
| 40 | 11 | Simon Shutt | Okemos |
| 41 | 12 | Elijah Baltierra | Alma |
| 42 | 11 | Charlie George | Pewamo-Westphalia |
| 43 | 10 | Ben Myers | East Lansing |
| 44 | 11 | Téo Krumm | Lansing Catholic |
| 45 | 11 | Will Chelotti | DeWitt |
| 46 | 10 | Reece Grafius | Mason |
| 47 | 12 | Quentin Smith | Fowler |
| 48 | 11 | Lincoln Morden | Grand Ledge |
| 49 | 11 | Sawyer Zeman | Haslett |
| 50 | 12 | Reagan Ward | St. Johns |
MACOMB COUNTY
These are my entries for the annual MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST
Awards are given to the top-3 teams and top-21 individuals.
| Proj. Place | Girls | Proj. Score | Win % | Top 3 % |
| 1 | Romeo | 21 | 95+ | 95+ |
| 2 | Utica | 72 | 95+ | |
| 3 | Macomb Dakota | 115 | 54 | |
| 4 | Fraser | 120 | 46 | |
| 5 | Utica Eisenhower | 154 | ||
| 6 | Armada | 190 | ||
| 7 | Utica Ford | 215 | ||
| 8 | Macomb Lutheran North | 223 | ||
| 9 | New Baltimore Anchor Bay | 265 | ||
| 10 | Macomb L’Anse Creuse North | 270 |
| Proj. Place | Grade | Girls | Team |
| 1 | 11 | Annie Hrabovsky | Romeo |
| 2 | 12 | Natalia Guaresimo | Romeo |
| 3 | 12 | Ella Goodsell | Romeo |
| 4 | 12 | Siene Muraszewski | Utica |
| 5 | 12 | Emmie Clor | Romeo |
| 6 | 10 | Alannah Wessel | MACH Running |
| 7 | 11 | Reese Rosbolt | Romeo |
| 8 | 11 | Alice Foley | Fraser |
| 9 | 11 | Emma Brown | Utica |
| 10 | 11 | Samantha Whitlam | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 11 | 12 | Lidia Clancy | Macomb Dakota |
| 12 | 11 | Maggie Baginski | Utica Eisenhower |
| 13 | 12 | Jacalyn Yakel | Utica Eisenhower |
| 14 | 10 | Gabriella Mercier | Macomb Dakota |
| 15 | 10 | Kylie Brown | Utica |
| 16 | 12 | Kate Molloy | Fraser |
| 17 | 9 | Claire Albrecht | Armada |
| 18 | 9 | Grace Mathers | Macomb Dakota |
| 19 | 12 | Brooke McFarland | Utica |
| 20 | 10 | Ava Knight | Macomb L’Anse Creuse North |
| 21 | 12 | Ava Tow | Utica |
| 22 | 11 | Faith Wessel | MACH Running |
| 23 | 10 | Cassidy Bowers | Austin Catholic |
| 24 | 10 | Codianne Palczewski | Utica |
| 25 | 12 | Abigail Denoyer | Armada |
| 26 | 9 | Audra Krause | New Baltimore Anchor Bay |
| 27 | 12 | Olivia Cereska | Fraser |
| 28 | 9 | Elizabeth Lennon | Unattached |
| 29 | 12 | Gianna D’Angelo | Utica Ford |
| 30 | 12 | Jewel Zschernig | Fraser |
| Proj. Place | Boys | Proj. Score | Win % | Top 3 % |
| 1 | Romeo | 41 | 95+ | 95+ |
| 2 | Macomb Dakota | 100 | 95+ | |
| 3 | Fraser | 142 | 44 | |
| 4 | Macomb Lutheran North | 149 | 33 | |
| 5 | Utica Eisenhower | 157 | 10 | |
| 6 | Utica | 158 | 11 | |
| 7 | Warren DeLaSalle | 185 | ||
| 8 | Utica Ford | 209 | ||
| 9 | New Baltimore Anchor Bay | 244 | ||
| 10 | Sterling Heights Stevenson | 274 |
| Proj. Place | Grade | Boys | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Owen Perry | Romeo |
| 2 | 10 | Xavier Solgot | Macomb L’Anse Creuse North |
| 3 | 12 | Harper Wesley | Utica |
| 4 | 11 | Joshua Macri | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 5 | 12 | Malcolm Richardson | Warren DeLaSalle |
| 6 | 9 | Rio Hrabovsky | Romeo |
| 7 | 12 | Luke Allen | Romeo |
| 8 | 12 | Joseph Kaleto | Macomb Dakota |
| 9 | 12 | James Brickel | Romeo |
| 10 | 12 | Anthony Frei | Utica Eisenhower |
| 11 | 12 | Xavier Roman | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 12 | 11 | Carson Hlavin | Romeo |
| 13 | 12 | Andrew Scheloske | Macomb Dakota |
| 14 | 12 | Drew Pietraszkiewicz | Utica Eisenhower |
| 15 | 12 | Aaron Osterman | New Baltimore Anchor Bay |
| 16 | 9 | Gavin Soviar | Fraser |
| 17 | 12 | Nathan Kafoury | Warren DeLaSalle |
| 18 | 12 | Maxwell Durham | New Haven |
| 19 | 11 | Tyler Williams | Fraser |
| 20 | 12 | Ian Potts | MACH Running |
| 21 | 10 | Federico Moreno-Padilla | Utica Eisenhower |
| 22 | 10 | Logan LaMilza | Macomb Dakota |
| 23 | 11 | Zach Shaffer | Utica Ford |
| 24 | 10 | Mason Pietrykowski | Richmond |
| 25 | 12 | Charlie Curtis | Utica |
| 26 | 12 | Lucas Gizoni | Romeo |
| 27 | 10 | Wesley LaFever | Macomb Dakota |
| 28 | 10 | Jacob Solomon | Utica |
| 29 | 10 | Cameron Martin | Fraser |
| 30 | 12 | Dean Gallucci | Utica Ford |

