Category: Uncategorized

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#22 Croswell-Lexington
#25 Warren Regina
#27 Armada

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19^th Place in the case of both Armada and St. Clair being the third team.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Croswell-Lexington	58	1.6	45	95+
2	Warren Regina	59	1.7	43	95+
3	Armada	72	3.0	12	71
4	St. Clair	82	3.7		30
5	Macomb Lutheran North	120	5.0
6	Marysville	153	6.3
7	Richmond	160	6.7
8	Marine City	225	8.2
9	Yale	237	8.9
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	279	9.9
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	331	11.0
12	Harper Woods	373	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.4
2	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada	2.0
3	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	3.3
4	11	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	5.6
5	11	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.0
6	12	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina	7.2
7	11	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	7.5
8	12	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair	8.6
9	11	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	9.4
10	12	Samantha Kook	Armada	9.6
11	11	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	11.3
12	9	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	11.7
13	9	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.4
14	11	Lorelei Mahon	Warren Regina	14.8
15	12	Brianna Albers	Richmond	15.4
16	11	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	17.9
17	12	Gabby Fernandez	Warren Regina	19.7
18	12	Abagayle Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	21.3
19	10	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	21.4
20	10	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	22.1
21	9	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	22.3
22	10	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	23.2
23	12	Eliza Nelson	Croswell-Lexington	25.0
24	12	Casidhe Flesher	Marine City	25.7
25	10	Paulina Chapman	Richmond	25.8
26	11	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	26.8
27	12	Ella Deshon	Marysville	27.2
28	10	Aubrey Sargent	St. Clair	27.6
29	9	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	27.9
30	9	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.0

Anything Intriguing?

One single point separating Warren Regina and Cros-Lex. I have a feeling the Saddlelites are underrated because of their tough stretch of Kensington then County with a two-day break. On the other hand, the Pioneers are your defending champs with upperclass girls ready to defend that crown.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#19 Yale
#21 St. Clair

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

24^th place behind the usually strong St. Clair and Yale teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Yale	37	1.2	76	95+
2	St. Clair	40	1.8	24	95+
3	Macomb Lutheran North	74	3.0		95+
4	Marysville	160	4.8
5	Madison Heights Lamphere	164	5.2
6	Marine City	166	5.5
7	Armada	174	6.5
8	Richmond	206	8.0
9	Croswell-Lexington	237	9.1
10	Harper Woods	261	10.0
11	Detroit East English	318	11.2
12	Center Line	322	11.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale	3.1
3	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	3.2
4	12	Acer Campbell	Yale	4.0
5	12	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair	4.6
6	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	5.6
7	12	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere	8.4
8	12	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	8.5
9	11	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.8
10	9	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	10.0
11	12	Dylan Schumann	St. Clair	10.4
12	11	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	14.6
13	11	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	14.9
14	10	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	15.5
15	11	Kale Kovach	Yale	15.6
16	12	Luke Nawrocki	Armada	18.3
17	11	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.6
18	10	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	20.6
19	12	Nathan VanderMeulen	Marysville	20.6
20	9	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	20.8
21	11	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	21.1
22	12	Alex Robertson	Marine City	21.8
23	10	Ross Wallace	Harper Woods	22.8
24	10	Nolan Korolden	Yale	25.0
25	12	Jayden Robertson	Marine City	26.3
26	11	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	26.8
27	9	Javaris Jackson	Harper Woods	28.5
28	11	Grayson Sutherland	Macomb Lutheran North	28.6
29	12	Tyler Buckland	Armada	28.8
30	10	Dalton Ross	Marine City	31.9

Anything Intriguing?

Another year of the perennial Yale/St. Clair battle. They’re gonna start giving this rivalry a name soon. The team from up north has claimed victory in the three matchups at Muskrat, Portage, and Marysville. But the Saints just raced to PR’s from over 50% of their athletes at Metro Beach.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#16 Fraser

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

23^rd place, about as deep into these as you’ll get.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	20	1.0	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	75	2.5		95+
3	Fraser	75	2.5		95+
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	118	4.1
5	Grosse Pointe South	145	4.9
6	Utica Eisenhower	203	6.4
7	Chippewa Valley	216	7.1
8	Port Huron Northern	237	8.1
9	Grosse Pointe North	243	8.5
10	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	293	10.5
11	L’Anse Creuse North	304	11.3
12	Anchor Bay	304	11.3
13	L’Anse Creuse	337	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.4
2	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	2.5
3	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	3.0
4	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	3.5
5	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	5.5
6	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	7.0
7	10	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	8.1
8	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	8.2
9	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	8.9
10	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
11	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	12.5
12	12	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay	14.4
13	12	Remi Flanz	Fraser	15.3
14	10	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	15.5
15	11	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	16.8
16	12	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo	17.0
17	11	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	17.3
18	10	Olivia Cereska	Fraser	17.7
19	12	Sydney Gergics	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	20.0
20	9	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	22.5
21	11	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	24.3
22	11	Luciana Rodriguez	Fraser	24.3
23	12	Morgan Deenik	Grosse Pointe South	26.7
24	9	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	27.0
25	11	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	27.5
26	12	Alyssa Ko	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.1
27	11	Shelby Stabile	L’Anse Creuse	28.4
28	12	Grace Gutmann	Chippewa Valley	29.0
29	10	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	29.4
30	9	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	29.9

Anything Intriguing?

Last year, it was their boys breaking the 36 year drought. Fraser’s girls have a nearly 20 year absence from the State Finals and it appears they’re in prime position to make a return voyage to Brooklyn. Also, does anyone have a clue on these additional qualifiers?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#8 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#25 Anchor Bay

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	59	1.3	71	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	64	1.7	29	95+
3	Anchor Bay	95	3.0		95+
4	Utica Eisenhower	165	4.9
5	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.7
6	L’Anse Creuse North	184	6.2
7	Port Huron Northern	193	7.1
8	Chippewa Valley	209	8.3
9	Grosse Pointe North	220	8.9
10	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	233	10.0
11	Fraser	237	10.0
12	L’Anse Creuse	289	12.3
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	303	12.6
14	Warren DeLaSalle	375	14.0
15	Warren Woods Tower	447	15.0
16	Roseville	527	16.4
17	Port Huron	532	16.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	1.4
2	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	1.8
3	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	3.6
4	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	6.2
6	12	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	7.2
7	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	8.3
8	12	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	10.4
9	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	11.1
10	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	11.2
11	12	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	11.2
12	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	12.0
13	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	13.1
14	12	Zachary Rubicz	Anchor Bay	14.8
15	12	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern	15.9
16	10	Brock Washburn	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.9
17	12	Luke Maher	Port Huron Northern	20.5
18	10	Luke Allen	Romeo	21.0
19	12	Michael Magnoli	Romeo	21.1
20	11	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	21.7
21	12	Jet Miller	Grosse Pointe South	22.5
22	12	Tommy Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	23.0
23	12	Aidan Leslie	Anchor Bay	24.1
24	11	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	24.7
25	11	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	25.4
26	10	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	25.6
27	12	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North	28.1
28	10	James Brickel	Romeo	28.6
29	10	Lance Edghill	Fraser	29.5
30	12	Gabe Rusch	Anchor Bay	30.0

Anything Intriguing?

The championship rubber match between Macomb Dakota and Romeo. Thanks to an ever-improving Bryce Goodsell, the Bulldogs captured the County crown. Lucas LaMilza and Colton Howell had big efforts in the Cougar win at The Beach. Who steps up to grab this trophy?

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	32	1.1	87	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	38	1.9	13	95+
3	Laingsburg	93	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	136	4.1
5	New Lothrop	151	5.2
6	Almont	158	5.7
7	Bath	189	7.2
8	Chesaning	196	8.0
9	Perry	211	8.8
10	Montrose	253	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	11	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.0
3	11	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	10	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.9
5	9	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.8
6	12	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.1
7	10	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.1
8	10	Anna Poppema	Bath	8.3
9	11	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	9.1
10	9	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.5
11	9	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	11.0
12	10	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.5
13	10	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	12.2
14	12	Isabell Helman	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	11	Piper White	Ovid-Elsie	16.0
16	10	Laila Evola	Almont	16.0
17	11	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	18.5
18	10	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.8
19	10	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	19.3
20	12	Ayla DeLaurier	Almont	22.2
21	12	Kaia Spiess	Ovid-Elsie	22.3
22	12	Taylor Bailey	Chesaning	22.7
23	9	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	22.8
24	11	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	23.7
25	12	Hannah Oakes	Chesaning	26.0
26	12	Klara Mulcahy	New Lothrop	27.4
27	12	Sara Dammann	New Lothrop	27.6
28	10	Mackenzie Hills	Bath	27.7
29	11	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	29.4
30	12	Josie Bauman	New Lothrop	31.6

Any Intriguing Battles?

Will Stanton Central Montcalm pull off the upset and bust through the perennially strong Pirate pack? I think there’s a better chance on the girls side, although both are fully capable. Paths to victory include placing three very highly or their 4^th and 5^th picking up some very manageable spots late.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm
#14 Bath

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Going all the way down to 25^th(!!!) place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	40	1.1	94	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	47	1.9	6	95+
3	Bath	62	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	158	4.9
5	Laingsburg	159	4.7
6	New Lothrop	181	6.0
7	Almont	194	6.7
8	Montrose	240	8.6
9	Chesaning	253	9.4
10	Perry	260	9.6
11	Memphis	272	10.5
12	Mt Morris	299	11.9
13	Burton-Bendle	333	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.1
2	10	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.1
3	12	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	12	Carter Holmes	Bath	5.2
5	10	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	6.1
6	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.6
7	9	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
8	11	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.3
9	9	River Fox	Bath	10.2
10	11	Luke Skidmore	Bath	10.9
11	9	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.5
12	11	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.6
13	12	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	11.8
14	11	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	12.0
15	9	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.4
16	10	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	16.0
17	9	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	16.4
18	10	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	19.0
19	9	Kai Fisher	Memphis	21.6
20	11	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	23.7
21	10	Madden Starkweather	Bath	23.8
22	11	Kevin Heslip	New Lothrop	24.7
23	12	Josiah Curry	Stanton Central Montcalm	25.6
24	10	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	25.9
25	9	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	26.3
26	12	Kyle Baldwin	Mt Morris	28.8
27	9	Tyler Rockafellow	Perry	29.1
28	9	Colton Grzyb	Almont	29.4
29	11	Felix Ramirez	Laingsburg	29.9
30	11	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	31.0

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 DeWitt
#11 St. Johns
#15 Owosso

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18^th place with these top-heavy squads.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	57	1.4	60	95+
2	St. Johns	60	1.6	40	95+
3	Owosso	83	2.9		95+
4	Mason	137	4.5
5	Haslett	144	5.0
6	Williamston	153	5.6
7	Parma Western	188	7.5
8	Charlotte	191	7.6
9	Corunna	207	8.8
10	Fowlerville	254	10.1
11	Eaton Rapids	277	10.9
12	Jackson Northwest	316	12.0
13	Lansing Eastern	396	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	12	Meghan Ford	Mason	1.8
3	12	Abby Young	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	3.8
5	10	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	7.1
6	12	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	7.3
7	12	Libby Summerland	Owosso	11.0
8	11	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	11.1
9	10	Emma Crandell	Owosso	11.1
10	9	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.8
11	11	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	12.1
12	11	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	12.2
13	10	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	12.3
14	11	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	13.0
15	11	Mia Williams	DeWitt	14.0
16	12	Dora Henry	Haslett	15.2
17	10	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	17.1
18	11	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	17.6
19	9	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	18.8
20	10	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	19.3
21	11	Julionna West	Owosso	21.0
22	10	Abby Russel	Haslett	22.5
23	11	Ryleigh Hanlin	DeWitt	24.3
24	9	Colette Charchut	Haslett	25.0
25	11	Raquel Curey	Parma Western	26.3
26	11	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	26.6
27	10	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	27.7
28	12	Analise Chelotti	DeWitt	28.9
29	10	Aubrey Metzger	Mason	29.5
30	10	Delaney Richardson	Fowlerville	30.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

DeWitt has been coming on strong as of late, entering the top-10 through their results from Greater Lansing and the CAAC Blue, the Panthers finishing 2^nd in each. Do they have enough depth to overcome the Redwings’ powerful top-3?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#24 Parma Western
#26 St. Johns
#27 DeWitt

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th Place, as this seems to be a much better individual region than a team region.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	85	1.7	51	95+
2	Parma Western	87	2.0	29	95+
3	St. Johns	92	2.7	16	78
4	Corunna	108	3.6		29
5	Mason	146	5.5
6	Haslett	148	5.5
7	Eaton Rapids	184	7.0
8	Williamston	220	8.3
9	Fowlerville	233	8.7
10	Charlotte	267	10.0
11	Owosso	305	11.9
12	Lansing Waverly	308	12.1
13	Jackson Northwest	309	12.4
14	Lansing Eastern	329	13.6
15	Lansing Sexton	499	15.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Nate Carmody	Haslett	1.3
2	11	Alex Doneth	Mason	2.8
3	11	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	3.0
4	12	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	4.4
5	11	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	4.7
6	10	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	6.7
7	12	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	6.8
8	9	Ryan Good	Parma Western	7.9
9	12	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	8.1
10	11	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	11.7
11	12	Brennan McKone	DeWitt	12.0
12	11	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.1
13	10	Payton Chandler	Corunna	12.9
14	11	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	15.9
15	11	Lucas Moore	Fowlerville	17.0
16	11	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	17.3
17	11	Bobby Donley	Corunna	17.3
18	10	Aidan Roka	Corunna	18.4
19	12	Xander Maliska	St. Johns	18.8
20	9	Mason Raborn	DeWitt	22.9
21	12	Kenny Evans	Corunna	23.1
22	11	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	23.3
23	11	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	26.6
24	12	Daniel Wilson	Williamston	27.3
25	10	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	28.2
26	10	Grant Conley	Charlotte	29.2
27	11	Gabi Martinez	Lansing Eastern	30.1
28	9	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	31.0
29	11	Drew Holevac	Eaton Rapids	31.4
30	11	Nathan Szilagyi	Fowlerville	31.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

Can Corunna shock the world again? Last year, the Cavaliers qualified for State as a longshot, coming in with a 6% chance. They’re almost 5x as likely this time around and as expected, just blasted the field at Shiawassee County.

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#8 Lansing Catholic
#11 Leslie

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

In a very front-loaded region, 22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	1.3	31	73	95+
2	Leslie	1.7	36	27	95+
3	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	3.0	106		95+
4	Wixom St. Catherine	4.3	136
5	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	5.0	145
6	Stockbridge	5.9	157
7	Algonac	6.9	173
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	8.2	209
9	Clawson	9.2	226
10	New Haven	9.6	233

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	1.0
2	10	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	3.2
3	9	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	3.6
4	10	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	4.4
5	11	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	4.8
6	9	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	5.7
7	11	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	8.4
8	12	Jalynn Schmelter	Leslie	8.4
9	12	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	10.4
10	9	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	10.8
11	9	Mia Papendick	Leslie	11.5
12	10	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	11.7
13	10	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	13.4
14	11	Kerith Short	University Liggett	14.6
15	9	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	15.9
16	9	Makya Isham	Leslie	16.3
17	10	Jaylee Chapman	Stockbridge	17.2
18	12	Kendall Zaliwski	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	19.1
19	11	Maddie Szlachta	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	20.6
20	11	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	21.2
21	10	Stella Lipinski	Lansing Catholic	21.9
22	12	Madison Juchno	Wixom St. Catherine	23.8
23	12	Carmellina Biafora	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	23.9
24	10	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	24.1
25	12	Lovelyn Ketepa	Clawson	25.8
26	9	Amanda Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	27.4
27	11	Kate Bennett	Algonac	27.4
28	10	Cristina Wenderski	Wixom St. Catherine	27.6
29	11	Josephine Malysz	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	30.1
30	11	Grace MacDonald	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.3

Any Intriguing Battles?

Leslie and Lansing Catholic appear to be neck and neck. Although the projections say one thing, results from this season say another. Just 10 days ago at Greater Lansing, the Blackhawks top-3 dominated the D3 crowd, competing with P-W for top honors among those teams. Though an advantage for LC might come in that their home course is filled with hills, as is the final mile at Possum Hollow.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#21 Leslie
#25 Lansing Catholic

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19^th-20^th Place. The projections have Algonac as a bit stronger toward the front, which might open a spot lower if they’re able to pull off the upset.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Leslie	1.3	49	75	95+
2	Lansing Catholic	1.8	56	25	95+
3	Dansville	3.2	114		81
4	Algonac	3.8	123		19
5	Charyl Stockwell Academy	5.5	156
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	6.5	167
7	Stockbridge	6.6	168
8	University Liggett	7.3	176
9	Clawson	9.5	246
10	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	10.1	257
11	New Haven	10.4	264
12	Detroit Osborn	12.0	338

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Theodore Davis	Dansville	1.0
2	10	Julian Walker	Algonac	2.6
3	12	Anthony Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	2.8
4	9	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	5.7
5	10	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	5.9
6	11	Michael Darlington	University Liggett	6.1
7	9	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	6.8
8	9	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	8.9
9	9	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	9.9
10	9	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	10.2
11	9	William Gancer	Stockbridge	11.0
12	10	Grason Weber	Leslie	12.2
13	9	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	14.9
14	10	Blaise Demko	Lansing Catholic	16.0
15	11	Kyan Isham	Leslie	17.8
16	12	Ethan Wright	Stockbridge	17.8
17	11	Jose Domecq	Leslie	18.5
18	10	Zach Witherspoon	Algonac	18.6
19	9	Clayton Gady	University Liggett	19.2
20	10	Owen Beindit	Algonac	19.8
21	9	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	20.1
22	9	Hayden Selesky	Lansing Catholic	20.8
23	10	Brody Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	22.2
24	12	Logan Hile	Leslie	25.8
25	9	Preston Varnauskas	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	26.1
26	12	Logan Fowler	New Haven	26.6
27	10	Hayden Richey	Lansing Catholic	26.8
28	9	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	27.1
29	10	Ryder Dayton	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	29.1
30	12	Calvin vanHartesvelt	Dansville	30.0

Any Intriguing Battles?

Just as the girls, Leslie and Lansing Catholic will likely duel for the team title, but we could have some intrigue for the 3^rd qualifier. In late August, both Dansville and Algonac came over to the shores of Kent Lake for the Milford Invite. Dansville obtained a significant victory over the Muskrats. Since then, Algonac has had noticeable improvement from their freshmen and their frontrunner, but will it be enough?

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#19 White Lake Lakeland
#24 Walled Lake Northern

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th or 16^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	White Lake Lakeland	1.2	58	81	95+
2	Walled Lake Northern	2.0	72	17	95+
3	Highland-Milford	3.2	103		73
4	Novi	3.9	126		27
5	South Lyon	5.7	166
6	Birmingham Seaholm	6.1	171
7	Royal Oak	6.4	177
8	Walled Lake Western	7.6	194
9	South Lyon East	9.0	241
10	Walled Lake Central	10.3	275
11	West Bloomfield	11.2	291
12	North Farmington	11.9	305
13	Berkley	12.6	318
14	Beverly Hills Groves	14.0	383

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	1.5
2	12	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	3.2
3	10	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	4.5
4	12	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	4.6
5	12	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	6.6
6	9	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.7
7	11	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	8.1
8	9	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	8.7
9	12	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	8.9
10	9	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	9.2
11	10	Macy Czelada	South Lyon	11.5
12	9	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	16.7
13	10	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	16.8
14	11	Emily Bieniasz	Walled Lake Central	18.0
15	11	Natalie Joiner	White Lake Lakeland	19.0
16	9	Kareena Babu	Novi	22.2
17	10	Mya Tass	Novi	22.5
18	9	Katelynn Egli	Novi	22.5
19	12	Katherine Wischman	Royal Oak	23.3
20	9	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	23.7
21	11	Isabelle Krause	Walled Lake Northern	24.3
22	11	Macy Jenkins	Highland-Milford	24.5
23	11	Cora Liu	North Farmington	25.2
24	9	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	27.1
25	12	Mackenzie Hendry	White Lake Lakeland	27.2
26	11	Kerrigan Kennedy	Highland-Milford	27.3
27	9	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	27.5
28	9	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	27.5
29	12	Elaine Burkmyre	Walled Lake Western	28.0
30	11	Ellie Nohovig	Highland-Milford	28.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

We’re blessed to be able to peek back 2.5 weeks ago, where the Lakeland girls survived the final hills in order to hold off Walled Lake Northern. We’re also blessed to have that highly-competitive LVC Championship, where Allie Gallagher showed much mettle, rising into the Knight scorers and displacing just enough White Lake girls. Now we get the rubber match!

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#12 White Lake Lakeland
#13 Walled Lake Northern

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17^th or 18^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	White Lake Lakeland	1.5	56	53	95+
2	Walled Lake Northern	1.5	57	47	95+
3	Highland-Milford	3.6	104		54
4	Novi	3.8	109		43
5	Royal Oak	5.3	127
6	Detroit Catholic Central	5.4	132
7	South Lyon	7.0	193
8	Berkley	8.5	283
9	Birmingham Seaholm	8.6	287
10	Brother Rice	10.1	316
11	South Lyon East	12.1	347
12	North Farmington	12.7	355
13	Walled Lake Central	12.7	355
14	Beverly Hills Groves	12.9	357
15	West Bloomfield	14.5	380
16	Walled Lake Western	16.0	434

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	1.7
2	12	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	2.3
3	10	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	2.4
4	12	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	4.2
5	12	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	5.6
6	12	Oliver Moss	Berkley	6.7
7	12	Braxton Sipes	Royal Oak	7.9
8	12	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	10.3
9	12	Lucas Karbel	Walled Lake Northern	11.2
10	10	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	12.9
11	11	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	13.8
12	12	Noah Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	14.7
13	11	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
14	11	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	15.4
15	9	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	16.5
16	12	Carter Lukas	Novi	16.9
17	11	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	17.9
18	12	Julian Liang	Novi	20.3
19	9	Briggs Warren	Novi	20.6
20	10	Soma Sato	Novi	21.5
21	12	Brayden Mullins	Highland-Milford	22.1
22	12	Ryan Illikman	Detroit Catholic Central	22.6
23	12	Liam Collins	Brother Rice	25.0
24	11	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	25.7
25	11	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	26.9
26	10	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	27.6
27	10	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	28.1
28	12	Dylan Shoresh	Birmingham Seaholm	28.3
29	12	Skylar Jess-Isenegger	Highland-Milford	30.6
30	11	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	32.1

Any Intriguing Battles?

Thanks to a clutch performance from sophomore Finn Gammerath, the Walled Lake Northern boys pulled off a minor upset in their win of the LVC. Personal bests were hard to come by last week, but dude broke into the 16’s for the first time ever in that championship race. Surely the Eagles are looking for revenge and this could go either way. Even though White Lake skipped out on the County meet, they have had positive experiences on this course, such as their win over Milford. If you can beat the Mavs on their home course, you’ve got a darn good team.