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Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship in 2024 and has positioned the Cougars as the favorite in 2025. Last year, the Cougars won on their strength from their 5^th girl (Avery Miller), who was the fastest 5^th in the field. Her 38^th place in the team race helped her Cougars come back and pass Pewamo-Westphalia in the team scoring.

The top six have returned from that 2024 MIS squad, enough quality that would have led the Cougars to the #1 spot. Extra insurance has been added in the form of Anna Drauer, a freshman that’s been a consistent presence in the 19’s this latter half of the season. The Cougars as a whole have not been complacent. They’ve captured the CAAC White yet again, keeping the 14-year streak alive. They achieved the lowest score ever in the history of the Michigan Catholic Invite. In the Portage pre-state setting, the team dominated the D3 field enroute to a 80+ point victory. The accomplishments abound in the regular season and can clearly be capped by another championship season title.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Lansing Catholic	81	1st-2nd
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	188	2nd-5th
3	Saugatuck	232	2nd-8th
4	Blissfield	244	2nd-8th
5	Jackson Lumen Christi	248	2nd-10th
6	Olivet	277	3rd-11th
7	Hart	284	2nd-13th
8	Grandville Calvin Christian	305	5th-13th
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306	4th-14th
10	Benzie Central	318	4th-15th
11	Traverse City St. Francis	340	5th-18th
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	348	7th-17th
13	Remus Chippewa Hills	356	9th-17th
14	McBain	361	6th-20th
15	Kent City	369	7th-20th
16	Bronson	404	11th-22nd
17	Plymouth Christian Academy	405	13th-20th
18	Caro	428	13th-23rd
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	440	12th-24th
20	Stanton Central Montcalm	470	17th-24th
21	Leslie	481	16th-25th
22	Bath	489	17th-26th
23	Harbor Springs	490	17th-25th
24	Bridgman	549	21st-27th
25	Grass Lake	558	20th-28th
26	Boyne City	577	21st-28th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	622	25th-28th
28	Fennville	637	24th-28th

Although the Cougars aren’t truly 100% favorites to win it (no one is!), the question is: who joins LC on the podium? Four teams have a distinct possibility:

Pewamo-Westphalia
Saugatuck
Jackson Lumen Christi
Blissfield

As these squads are based in different regions of Michigan, common matchups aren’t all that common. One did occur at Portage, where P-W placed 2^nd, ahead of Saugatuck and Lumen Christi. P-W and Saugatuck also faced off at the former’s home invite, with the Pirates once again holding serve.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Lansing Catholic	95+	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia		64	95+
3	Saugatuck		12	95+
4	Blissfield		6	95+
5	Jackson Lumen Christi		13	95
6	Olivet			93
7	Hart			82
8	Grandville Calvin Christian			70
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian			69
10	Benzie Central			55
11	Traverse City St. Francis			35
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian			22
13	Remus Chippewa Hills			17
14	McBain			29
15	Kent City			19
16	Bronson			7
17	Plymouth Christian Academy
18	Caro
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran			6
20	Stanton Central Montcalm
21	Leslie
22	Bath
23	Harbor Springs
24	Bridgman
25	Grass Lake
26	Boyne City
27	Monroe St. Mary CC
28	Fennville

I’ll refer back to the questions posed yesterday:

Who has the best 5^th girl? Likely either Saugatuck or Pewamo-Westphalia. At the two common invites, the Pirates held a slight edge at the 5^th spot, but Saugatuck still has had five girls sub-21 on the year.

Who holds the greatest depth through all varsity runners? Probably Pewamo-Westphalia, who appears interchangeable in their 4^th-6^th slots.

Who steers clear of the bubble? The numbers guess that the main pack of girls will be rated 80-95, or what I would anticipate to be 21:00-21:50. Saugatuck, Blissfield, and Pewamo-Westphalia will all likely have 3-4 girls clear of the pack, Jackson Lumen Christi will have many entrenched in the mix. So there are scenarios where the Titans punch above their projection with the possibility of a few seconds meaning multiple places.

BOYS TEAM

This D3 boys’ race could be the race of the day. Three teams in close proximity, the top trio projected within 8 points of one another. And a non-zero chance that a major upset occurs from the projected 4^th, 5^th, or even 6^th spot. Traverse City St. Francis, 2024’s Division 3 Champion and commonly found outfit up here in the standings left quite a void, returning only one athlete from their title squad. Thus, this championship was always up for grabs.

Saugatuck has always been thought of a contender, both from this season’s work and last fall’s impressive runner-up finish. The Trailblazers weren’t projected anywhere near the 2024 podium, yet were able to pack up and bring home a trophy. The team, fully comprised of underclassmen, set their top-five between 16:19 and 16:46, barreling their way into the 2^nd spot through their tremendous depth.

Jackson Lumen Christi perhaps didn’t have the best day last year, but you can imagine that has spurred their inclusion in this conversation. Especially when one peeks at the improvement of their varsity boys, many impactful time drops by multiple minutes.

Apparent in the spring was the progress of Charlevoix. Three underclassmen that were sub-10 in the 3200m. A State Title in the same event from Hunter Eaton. State qualifiers and a pair of 11^th place finishes from Ryder Hopkins and Matthew Solomon.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	175	1st-6th
2	Charlevoix	179	1st-7th
3	Saugatuck	187	1st-8th
4	Lansing Catholic	211	1st-8th
5	Ithaca	215	1st-9th
6	Hanover-Horton	266	1st-14th
7	Stanton Central Montcalm	274	4th-13th
8	Jonesville	282	4th-14th
9	Benzie Central	283	3rd-14th
10	The Potter’s House	313	5th-16th
11	Buchanan	332	4th-19th
12	Holland Black River	342	7th-18th
13	Hart	344	7th-18th
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills	352	7th-20th
15	Plymouth Christian Academy	375	9th-21st
16	Lake City	381	8th-21st
17	Pewamo-Westphalia	429	13th-24th
18	Erie Mason	441	12th-26th
19	Midland Bullock Creek	445	13th-26th
20	Caro	453	15th-26th
21	Blissfield	456	14th-25th
22	Montague	468	15th-27th
23	Traverse City St. Francis	509	18th-27th
24	Montrose	511	16th-27th
25	Schoolcraft	512	17th-27th
26	Harbor Springs	521	19th-27th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	526	17th-27th

Unlike the first D3 race of the day, common matchups are easy to find. Plenty took place throughout mid-September. Two prominent ones occurred just before championship season: Portage and Bluejay. And Region 23 gives a little hope of what could be an incredible upset.

Bluejay was one of the few races that we saw Charlevoix in action against the other top teams. The Rayders were the top D3 team in the elite section, placing 9^th out of 35 teams. Ithaca and Central Montcalm also competed there, placing 21^st and 22^nd – the Rayders cleared either squad by approximately 200 points. That wasn’t Ithaca’s day, as some of the Yellowjackets’ better performances have come of late.

A week later, at the Portage bonanza, Hanover-Horton, Lansing Catholic, and Saugatuck all jumped out the gate, nearing the lead at the mile. In the middle mile, the Titans surged to the lead, one they wouldn’t relinquish. It’s that kind of strategy that gives confidence for state, pouncing as the adrenaline wears off from the excited and anxious field. But with only a 24-point gap to Saugatuck and 20 more to Lansing Catholic, it showed that there isn’t a huge gap at the top end of the contenders.

Region 23 furthered that point, three top-ten teams present at Sharp Park – Lumen Christi, Hanover-Horton, and Jonesville. The former Comets nearly pulled off the upset, a huge performance (35+ second SB) from Zach Hassenzahl pulling H-H to within a point of Lumen Christi.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	29	52	95+
2	Charlevoix	24	47	95+
3	Saugatuck	28	44	95+
4	Lansing Catholic	7	19	95+
5	Ithaca	8	20	95+
6	Hanover-Horton		8	76
7	Stanton Central Montcalm			81
8	Jonesville			73
9	Benzie Central			73
10	The Potter’s House			50
11	Buchanan			38
12	Holland Black River			25
13	Hart			26
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills			28
15	Plymouth Christian Academy			13
16	Lake City			12
17	Pewamo-Westphalia
18	Erie Mason
19	Midland Bullock Creek
20	Caro
21	Blissfield
22	Montague
23	Traverse City St. Francis
24	Montrose
25	Schoolcraft
26	Harbor Springs
27	Monroe St. Mary CC

The three posed questions:

Who has the best 5^th runner?

Most likely Lumen Christi, with a lesser chance of Lansing Catholic. At Portage, Avery Morrow handled the heat better than any other D3 5^th kid and was the main driver behind the Titan win. Lansing Catholic had the 2^nd best 5^th performance there and all of their top-five has been sub-17.

Who has the best depth?

There isn’t really any exceptional team here, most have a considerable drop off between their scorers and their 6-7. Lansing Catholic has smallest gap between the two.

Who steers clear of the bubble?

I’d anticipate the main pack crossing the line between 17:00 and 17:40. Lansing Catholic, Saugatuck and Ithaca are the most avoidant of this area. Lumen Christi, Charlevoix, and Hanover-Horton will likely be sparring with others in this range of times. The former two will likely have three come in before it, Hanover-Horton could have many in the mix.

Where am I getting with this? Hanover-Horton could be most variant from their projected spot. Charlevoix, Lumen Christi, and Saugatuck will have many spots to gain (and points to lose) from their depth. Lansing Catholic and Ithaca appear the most stable and could move up on any potential subpar performance from the above teams.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

A few names have had excellent careers to date and have come to the forefront this season:

Hailey Creisher – defeated only twice this season, victorious on 14 occasions. At Greater Lansing, was able to slip under 18:00 for the 2^nd time in her career. Back-to-back winner of the Cascades Conference and Region 26.

Samantha Schroeder – has followed the same pattern that led to last year’s 8^th place finish. Has put forth her best material in recent weeks, winning the CHSL Bishop title and finishing first in the D3 race at Portage. Following those wins, the times have come, hitting a season’s best of 18:14 in her Region 23 win.

Hope Miller – following the departure of Emmry Ross, finally has come to claim SE side supremacy. Winner of the Lenawee County, LCAA, and Region 27 titles. Has ventured into the mid-18’s in her past three meets. If track is any indication, 2025 championship meets are her time to shine, as Miller was 2^nd in the 800m and 3^rd in the 1600m.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie
2	11	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi
3	12	Hope Miller	Blissfield
4	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet
5	10	Elliana Max	Kent City
6	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia
7	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic
8	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic
9	11	Violet Tetil	Caro
10	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia
11	11	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville
12	10	Caelyn Torry	McBain
13	12	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids
14	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic
15	10	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills
16	9	Lily Britton	Olivet
17	10	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central
18	12	Abigail Reis	Millington
19	12	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC
20	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic
21	11	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview
22	12	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson
23	12	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck
24	12	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids
25	9	Tala Carlin	Buchanan
26	12	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek
27	12	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi
28	11	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca
29	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic
30	11	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck
31	10	Madisyn Wanstead	LeRoy Pine River
32	12	Aletta Scholten	Grandville Calvin Christian
33	11	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
34	11	Natalie Rosema	Hart
35	12	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm
36	11	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City
37	9	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	9	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro
39	12	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy
40	9	Kylie Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
41	12	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy
42	11	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck
43	11	Betsy Gooden	Manton
44	10	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City
45	12	Hailey Sills	Blissfield
46	10	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
47	9	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central
48	9	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon
49	9	Emma Miller	Hart
50	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia
51	12	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills
52	11	Anna Hallett	Blissfield
53	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic
54	12	Anna Poppema	Bath
55	10	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis
56	11	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis
57	10	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central
58	10	Alaina Schaner	Hart
59	10	Peyton Nellis	Remus Chippewa Hills
60	10	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska
61	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic
62	10	Faith Helsel	Lake City
63	12	Maryrose Halberg	Charlevoix
64	11	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
65	11	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
66	11	Nico Triebold	Grayling
67	9	Sage Palmer	Sandusky
68	11	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian
69	9	Lily Sisson	LeRoy Pine River
70	12	Emily Peters	Olivet
71	11	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton
72	12	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman
73	11	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo
74	10	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian
75	9	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet
76	11	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian
77	10	Ellason Foster	Newaygo
78	10	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake
79	12	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm
80	10	Ingrid Molins Rallo	Benzie Central
81	10	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek
82	10	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe
83	9	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck
84	12	Georgia Haag	Manistee
85	9	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop
86	11	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs
87	9	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City
88	9	Allison Burns	Constantine
89	10	Esther Cahill	Saranac
90	9	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
91	9	Mya Bronkema	McBain
92	9	Jenny Woznick	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
93	11	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia
94	11	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson
95	10	Taylor Stanczak	Almont
96	10	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro
97	12	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe
98	9	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia
99	9	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
100	11	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield

As I stated in the D4 preview, I don’t anticipate the conditions will be *as* optimal as in 2023 or 2024, so I’d expect times to be a little slower. If I had to fathom a guess toward the All-State cutoff, I’d be antsy if I were above 19:30. The projections give around 55 girls (not in the above order) a fighter’s chance of stepping onto that podium.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

That void does and doesn’t exist for the D3 boys. Although outgoing seniors took the top-two spots, underclassmen had their presence felt throughout the standings.

Gage Hoffman was the top non-senior, hitting a personal best in his 3^rd place finish.

Christian Craanen and Nole Lorenzen established themselves as youngsters to be reckoned with.

Landen Styka hit another sub-16 in a season full of ‘em.

Caleb Blonde was the fastest sophomore.

Hunter Eaton hit a season best and set the stage for his track heroics.

There doesn’t seem to be great differences or tiers between the top runners. Appearing to have the greatest chances of coming out on top are:

Hunter Eaton – who when faced with the opportunity, has brought his best material. The greatest example of that being his 15:22 from Bluejay.

Gage Hoffman – winner of Portage and Region 24 for the 2^nd year in a row.

Nole Lorenzen – two straight Region 26 titles but also ripping some fast times, such as his 15:24 from Larry Steeb.

Christian Craanen – entered MIS last year with a personal best of 16:20. Enters it this year having already run 15:42. Given his performance at the speedway last November, that gives great hope for another breakout.

Luke Herron – had a dramatic jump toward the end of last year (16:01 and 20^th here) and has continued it further, dipping into the 15’s at John Bruder and Brooks Mid-Season.

Caleb Blonde – battle-tested down in the Jackson area. Winner of the Cascades Conference for the second year in a row and captured Region 23 for the first time ever. Sub-16 for the past four races.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix
2	12	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm
3	10	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
4	10	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC
5	11	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville
6	11	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale
7	11	Luke Herron	Caro
8	11	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix
9	11	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River
10	11	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton
11	12	Landen Styka	Ithaca
12	10	Owen Poppema	Bath
13	12	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House
14	12	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille
15	10	Will Hulin	Centreville
16	11	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck
17	11	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi
18	12	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix
19	10	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central
20	10	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central
21	12	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi
22	11	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck
23	11	John Keser	Buchanan
24	12	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids
25	11	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker
26	12	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy
27	12	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
28	12	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding
29	11	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City
30	11	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca
31	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic
32	10	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi
33	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic
34	12	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca
35	10	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield
36	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia
37	9	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge
39	12	John Edler	Homer
40	10	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck
41	11	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills
42	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven
43	12	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison
44	12	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm
45	12	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central
46	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic
47	10	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley
48	12	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm
49	11	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
50	11	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek
51	11	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton
52	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg
53	11	Collin Fucile	Jonesville
54	12	Ben Gautsche	Union City
55	12	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi
56	10	Noah Sills	Blissfield
57	9	Asher Putman	Reese
58	10	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
59	11	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon
60	9	Reese Devisser	Schoolcraft
61	10	Edison Huizinga	Manistee
62	11	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck
63	12	Caiden Helsel	Lake City
64	12	Connor Helsel	Lake City
65	12	Alessandro Avila	Constantine
66	12	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville
67	12	Paul Saladin	Reed City
68	10	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville
69	12	Liam McBeth	Buchanan
70	12	Owen Beindit	Algonac
71	11	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview
72	11	David Castrejon	Newaygo
73	10	Nolan Kessler	Montague
74	12	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills
75	11	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi
76	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic
77	12	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan
78	11	Logan Young	Harrison
79	10	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy
80	11	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
81	12	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River
82	11	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
83	10	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs
84	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia
85	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie
86	9	Sam Casiano	Watervliet
87	11	Gibson Smith	Montague
88	10	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca
89	10	Eli Hobson	Montrose
90	11	Ethan Huff	Homer
91	11	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason
92	11	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River
93	10	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton
94	10	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic
95	10	Timothy Wolff	Hart
96	12	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
97	12	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills
98	11	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix
99	10	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian
100	12	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House

I’d guesstimate 16:30 being the slowest time required for an All-State finish. This is a highly variant mix of kids, around 75 boys having a good shot of earning a medal.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

If you’ve been watching, this has been coming for years. In the early 2020’s, signs were given that Whitmore Lake would be title contenders for awhile. Speedy underclasswomen, middle schoolers with potential. Led by the ’26 senior class (Sofia Robertson, Elodie Weaver, and Carina Burchi) and supplemented more recently by Kaylie Livingston and Malynda Lambros. Back in ’22 when the storied senior class were freshmen, the Trojans placed 3^rd. Each of the past two years, they’ve taken home the title.

Whitmore Lake is a fairly heavy favorite. They’re a team known for taking on any competition. This year, the Trojans have traveled to Portage, Shepherd, Gabriel Richard, and Holly, amongst many other races. Portage is perhaps the greatest example of their quality. Clearly, the Red n’ White crew has an advantage up front, but even their depth is among the best in the division, as Sofia Robertson was the 2^nd fastest 5^th girl of the D4 race.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Whitmore Lake	115	1st-2nd
2	Hillsdale Academy	182	2nd-6th
3	Kalamazoo Hackett	188	2nd-7th
4	Buckley	205	1st-9th
5	Maple City Glen Lake	213	2nd-9th
6	Grand Traverse Academy	225	2nd-10th
7	Gobles	231	3rd-9th
8	Concord	271	3rd-13th
9	Ubly	278	6th-12th
10	Martin	305	7th-14th
11	Lansing Christian	313	6th-16th
12	Kingston	314	7th-15th
13	Dryden	377	11th-19th
14	Bellaire	381	10th-20th
15	Petoskey St. Michael	393	11th-21st
16	Breckenridge	401	12th-21st
17	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	403	11th-22nd
18	Royal Oak Shrine	425	13th-22nd
19	Petersburg-Summerfield	451	14th-24th
20	Rogers City	452	13th-24th
21	Lutheran Westland	456	17th-23rd
22	Novi Christian Academy	471	16th-24th
23	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	540	19th-26th
24	Fowler	540	22nd-25th
25	Three Oaks River Valley	596	22nd-26th
26	Southfield Christian	651	24th-27th
27	White Pigeon	725	26th-27th

Beyond the Trojans, there are 5-6 teams that have a shot at making the podium:

Hillsdale Academy
Kalamazoo Hackett
Buckley
Maple City Glen Lake
Grand Traverse Academy
Gobles

In common matchups, two stand out. One, pound for pound, the strongest region in the state (Region 29) and Portage, your yearly D4 pre-state meet.

Region 29 featured Buckley, Grand Traverse Academy, and Maple City Glen Lake. In a small region, the Bears’ 14-point margin looms large. The margin was accrued early, three Buckley girls coming in before MCGL’s 2^nd and GTA’s 1^st.

At Portage, Kalamazoo Hackett came out ahead of the rest of the pack. The Irish formula was to have one of the better top-3’s, holding even with Gobles. Adding to the strength up front, having just enough depth that a Hillsdale Academy couldn’t overtake KH.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Whitmore Lake	92	95+	95+
2	Hillsdale Academy		37	95+
3	Kalamazoo Hackett		28	95+
4	Buckley		19	95+
5	Maple City Glen Lake		10	95+
6	Grand Traverse Academy		5	95+
7	Gobles			95+
8	Concord			78
9	Ubly			81
10	Martin			50
11	Lansing Christian			45
12	Kingston			36
13	Dryden
14	Bellaire			6
15	Petoskey St. Michael
16	Breckenridge
17	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
18	Royal Oak Shrine
19	Petersburg-Summerfield
20	Rogers City
21	Lutheran Westland
22	Novi Christian Academy
23	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
24	Fowler
25	Three Oaks River Valley
26	Southfield Christian
27	White Pigeon

Three areas I always look for in a State Finals field:

Who has the best fifth runner? This is often the spot where the most points are exchanged in the shortest segment of time.

Who has the most depth? Better odds are had when you have more athletes capable of impacting the scoring.

Where is the bubble? There’s always a spot where a few seconds = a significant move in the standings. A team with more athletes before/behind the bubble may be less volatile, one with many in the pack may have great variation.

The first two answers are both Hillsdale Academy. We saw evidence of this at Portage, where the Colts had the best 5^th girl in the field and by far the best 7^th. My anticipation is that the bubble will be between the ratings of 75-90 (guessing course conditions will be fast, but with a bit more wind than the previous two years), which I estimate will be around 21:20-22:05. Hillsdale Academy once again answers the bell with potentially the most in that range, Gobles looks to be either on either side of it, and the rest should have a few runners in the midst.

BOYS TEAM

Whereas the first race of the day had a more varied setup, the final D4 race of the season appears to be a bit more straight-forward. Three programs should vie for the win – Maple City Glen Lake, Holland Calvary Christian, and Hillsdale Academy. The latter has been here before, winning three of the past four titles. Hillsdale is a town with a running tradition for many years, the Gina Relays and Bill Lundberg having an indelible impact on the sport in Michigan. Holland Calvary Christian is a newcomer, off to a blazing hot start. The program has been present for around a decade, though it has only fielded full teams for the past 5-6 years. During that time span, the Crusaders have risen quickly, ascending to the MIS podium for the past two seasons. The Drowns had been a Tri-Cities staple for many years and recently took a trek up north to revive the Maple City Glen Lake program. The culture there has been completely turned on its head, revamped, and now looks to be a force for years to come.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Maple City Glen Lake	118	1st-3rd
2	Holland Calvary Christian	126	1st-3rd
3	Hillsdale Academy	157	1st-5th
4	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	210	3rd-7th
5	Kalamazoo Hackett	258	4th-10th
6	Royal Oak Shrine	267	4th-11th
7	Whitmore Lake	280	3rd-14th
8	Breckenridge	295	4th-14th
9	Leland	295	5th-12th
10	Petoskey St. Michael	300	4th-16th
11	Mesick	326	7th-15th
12	Three Oaks River Valley	358	6th-20th
13	Portland St. Patrick	374	9th-19th
14	Riverview Gabriel Richard	384	10th-22nd
15	Lutheran Westland	404	10th-23rd
16	Genesee Christian	418	12th-22nd
17	Gobles	420	12th-23rd
18	Webberville	422	10th-24th
19	Ubly	422	10th-24th
20	Dryden	445	13th-25th
21	Manchester	460	15th-25th
22	Concord	468	15th-25th
23	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	474	14th-27th
24	White Pigeon	492	17th-26th
25	Ellsworth	551	22nd-27th
26	Unionville-Sebewaing	557	21st-27th
27	Mackinaw City	570	23rd-27th

Portage, the ever-present D4 preview, featured all three teams. Maple City Glen Lake jumped out to an early lead, halving the score of both Calvary and Hillsdale Academy. At two miles, HCC began to cut into the gap, Hillsdale Academy close behind. At the finish, there was hardly a margin between Maple City Glen Lake and Calvary Christian, though the Lakers did prevail.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Maple City Glen Lake	52	89	95+
2	Holland Calvary Christian	32	76	95+
3	Hillsdale Academy	15	31	95+
4	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart			95+
5	Kalamazoo Hackett			95+
6	Royal Oak Shrine			92
7	Whitmore Lake			75
8	Breckenridge			69
9	Leland			83
10	Petoskey St. Michael			66
11	Mesick			44
12	Three Oaks River Valley			28
13	Portland St. Patrick			9
14	Riverview Gabriel Richard			12
15	Lutheran Westland			7
16	Genesee Christian
17	Gobles
18	Webberville			6
19	Ubly			7
20	Dryden
21	Manchester
22	Concord
23	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
24	White Pigeon
25	Ellsworth
26	Unionville-Sebewaing
27	Mackinaw City

Raising the questions posed above, Maple City Glen Lake appears to have the best 5^th runner. This was the case at Portage, where Lincoln Bailey gained six places on HCC and nearly halved HA’s place. Past the 5^th guy, Calvary Christian ranks above the other two. Evidence of this was had at Portage, where the Crusader 7^th runner bested either team’s 6^th.

With regard to the bubble, I anticipate the main pack ranging from 140-160 in the ratings, or 18:10-19:10 (I’d expect a +10 adjustment environment). The three squads should all have their scorers cross the line before this range, so expect other racers to have less of an impact on the trophy scoring – this will be scorching showdown.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

This fall, two girls have stood above the rest, Kaylie Livingston and Libby Smith.

Livingston is the defending champion and previous year’s runner-up. She’s had her usual workup of elite races all throughout the state, facing whomever is out there from whichever division. She’s been in the 17’s on six separate occasions (the most she’s had in any season prior to November). Although she hasn’t hit her absolute personal best, she’s been close, the best effort being a 17:44 to win the MIAC for the 3^rd consecutive year.

Smith is having the best year of her career. The Gobles junior has twice been a prominent figure here, placing 7^th and 3^rd the past two seasons. Late September featured her first ever sub-18, a 17:46 at Otsego. Even disregarding that quick course, other accomplishments abound, such as a 3^rd place finish at Portage and an 18:11 at the Allendale Regional, another best across her three-year career.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake
2	11	Libby Smith	Gobles
3	10	Sophia Grinage	Leland
4	10	Callie Sinke	Onekama
5	11	Veyda Conley	Martin
6	8	Faith Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian
7	12	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett
8	11	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel
9	12	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake
10	10	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake
11	12	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden
12	9	Norah Kiley	Kingston
13	9	Ryleigh Alderink	Holton
14	9	Ava Higley	Frankfort
15	11	Addy Zeller	Onekama
16	10	Ella Lamb	Royal Oak Shrine
17	10	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge
18	11	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy
19	11	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles
20	10	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake
21	12	Lilah Kiley	Kingston
22	11	Kiera Piper	Kalamazoo Hackett
23	12	Katie Sweeney	Ubly
24	10	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing
25	10	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic
26	11	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael
27	9	Audrey Pyle	Concord
28	12	Mirthe Breuker	Buckley
29	12	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland
30	10	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini
31	11	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy
32	11	Natalie Burpee	Leland
33	12	Rowan Allen	Mendon
34	10	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake
35	9	Alyse Cox	Maple City Glen Lake
36	8	Amelia Hoyt	Bellaire
37	9	Lillian Coen	Ellsworth
38	10	Zoe Fabing	Fowler
39	11	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian
40	11	Lindsey Nordyke	Byron Center Zion Christian
41	10	Payton King	Kingston
42	12	Alyssa Spicer	Mesick
43	11	Ava DeYoung	Gobles
44	11	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy
45	12	Kinsey Peer	Buckley
46	10	Claire Wright	Dryden
47	11	Haley Stimer	Concord
48	10	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake
49	11	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
50	10	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton
51	11	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes
52	12	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake
53	11	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley
54	12	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake
55	9	Eliza Roberts	Hillsdale Academy
56	10	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City
57	10	Abbygail Plester	Ubly
58	9	Zakia Wagoner	Onekama
59	9	Josephine Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes
60	9	Heather Morris	Hillsdale Academy
61	12	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy
62	11	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy
63	12	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson
64	11	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach
65	9	Brooklyn Griffin	Buckley
66	10	Andi Kirkman	Genesee Christian
67	12	Madison Prowse	Brown City
68	9	Audrey Rinehart	Concord
69	10	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate
70	9	Ellie Wright	Maple City Glen Lake
71	11	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy
72	12	Olive Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
73	11	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy
74	9	Cassa Minnis	Dansville
75	12	Delaney Richardson	Byron
76	10	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael
77	10	Bristol Skop	East Jordan
78	12	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield
79	11	Maren Gehrke	Hillsdale Academy
80	11	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston
81	11	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian
82	12	Mary Schlueter	Hillsdale Academy
83	9	Madalyn Dewey	Bellaire
84	12	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett
85	10	Myah Peruski	Ubly
86	10	Madison Deutschmann	Byron Center Zion Christian
87	10	Allison Ost	Petersburg-Summerfield
88	10	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland
89	9	Ella Gustner	Dryden
90	11	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg
91	11	Avary Bearden	East Jordan
92	9	Reese Brege	Rogers City
93	10	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian
94	10	Allison Rodgers	Martin
95	10	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy
96	9	Maezee Humm	Breckenridge
97	10	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett
98	11	Avery Langlois	Rogers City
99	12	Cieara Barrett	Concord
100	12	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian

In the past, I used to delve deep into an individual’s odds, how they fared against each other. As the years wear on, I don’t feel this is productive before a major race. I’d much rather celebrate accomplishments and call out breakthroughs after.

If I had to anticipate where the All-State cutoff may lie, I’d bet on 20:30 being the absolute slowest time required to get on the podium. The numbers have approximately 60 girls (not in the order above) with a decent chance of earning a medal. Past MITCA, when I pen a breakdown, I’ll get into which %’s I had tabulated for everyone.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

It’s Marek Butkiewicz and his merry band of seniors. Butkiewicz arrived late in his freshman year and has been a D4 presence ever since. His first title came on the track as a sophomore and he’s been winning ‘em ever since, one of the crowns including 2024’s cross title. He’s found a bit more competition this year, racing at Jackson and Gabriel Richard, being pulled along by those Pioneer boys. A Sharp Park crack at a sub-15 fell a little short, but the Hudson Mills attempt was well-realized, as Butkiewicz nabbed a 14:59. That 14:59 leads the division by a considerable margin.

Which is impressive because this is one of the better D4 years and fields I’ve ever seen. At this point prior to November, 8 boys have found their way into the 15’s. This is an upward trend, as at this point in 2024, there were 7 boys sub-16. 2023, 6 boys sub-16. 2022, 4 boys sub-16. At the tail end of the pattern, a group of seniors – Abenezer Cerone, Brody Karg, Landon Rogers, Landen Livingston, Grayson Rorick. Even those rapidly coming up on these kids, such as Carson Burgess and Sean Siems.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett
2	12	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine
3	12	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach
4	12	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley
5	11	Kyle Redman	Mesick
6	12	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy
7	12	Carson Burgess	Brown City
8	12	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
9	12	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake
10	11	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian
11	11	Ty Redman	Mesick
12	9	Mason Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley
13	9	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake
14	11	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian
15	11	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
16	10	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-unity Christian
17	11	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge
18	12	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael
19	11	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake
20	12	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass
21	11	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian
22	11	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary
23	12	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland
24	9	Christian Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake
25	12	Jack Sharar	Rogers City
26	12	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake
27	10	Nathan West	Webberville
28	12	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine
29	12	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy
30	12	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
31	12	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick
32	11	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard
33	12	Quentin Smith	Fowler
34	11	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake
35	9	Gavin Bowers	Austin Catholic
36	11	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy
37	12	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy
38	10	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern
39	12	jeremiah Thurman	Detroit Frederick Douglass
40	11	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
41	11	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian
42	11	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
43	12	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal
44	12	Logan Romain	Dryden
45	11	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach
46	12	Keith Crompton	Frankfort
47	10	Peter Winn	Hillsdale Academy
48	12	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon
49	11	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick
50	10	Carter Suttmann	Leland
51	12	Grant Johnson	Manchester
52	10	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian
53	12	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian
54	11	Rush Marsden	Fulton
55	9	Weston Guza	Ubly
56	11	Elias Baldwin	Decatur
57	11	Alec Dodak	Manchester
58	9	Ethan Harrand	Buckley
59	9	Oliver Burt	Breckenridge
60	12	Cole Brege	Rogers City
61	12	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory
62	11	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview
63	10	Caleb Chamberlin	Petoskey St. Michael
64	12	Cole Upper	Alcona
65	11	Silas Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy
66	12	Nicholas Trader	Fairview
67	10	Zander Chellis	Ellsworth
68	12	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard
69	12	Michael Walsh	Ubly
70	12	Gianino Perna	Marlette
71	12	Freddie Bierling	Byron Center Zion Christian
72	12	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord
73	10	Levi Fitchett	Dryden
74	11	Brennan Robinson	Kingston
75	10	Nolan Koscinski	Bear Lake
76	12	Ben Young	Lansing Christian
77	10	Reagan Downing	Holland Calvary Christian
78	11	Dominick Chiverton	Breckenridge
79	11	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian
80	10	Campbell Fedderman	Leland
81	11	Micah Arlow	Cardinal Mooney Catholic
82	10	Hannes Graebel	Leland
83	11	Brody Jeruzal	Ann Arbor Christian
84	10	Christopher Knudsen	Leland
85	12	Lukas Rennells	Muskegon Catholic Central
86	10	Kadin McGee	Decatur
87	12	Paul Herendeen	Concord
88	11	Owen Ledebuhr	Holland Calvary Christian
89	10	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael
90	9	Easton Harrand	Buckley
91	9	Henry Rorick	Hillsdale Academy
92	11	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
93	11	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
94	9	Lucas Volmering	Ubly
95	11	Nate Ruhstorfer	Hesperia
96	9	Gabe Schultz	Genesee Christian
97	12	Joseph Stevens	Southfield Christian
98	9	Fletcher Amos	Gobles
99	10	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine
100	12	Gavin Howery	Webberville

My guess is that the course is a bit slower (you can’t have better wind than the past two years) and that the All-State cutoff could be a bit slower than in year’s past. But I wouldn’t feel safe above 16:45. As with the girls, approximately 60 boys (not in the order listed above) have a decent chance of stepping on the podium.

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Race	Boys Adj.	Girls Adj.
Region 32	+17	+25

MIXC vs. REALITY

Have you made it this far? Have you read ALL of the regional ratings? Are you worried that I won’t have time to delve into the State Final Projections?

If you’ve read all of these, you’ll have noticed that the projections identified 193 of the top-3 teams. That’s not the best total of all time (197 or 198 last year, I can’t remember), but it is in line with what I expected. Adding all the odds from the projected top-3 teams, the grand total was 194 of 216. A one team difference out of the many races, regions, and teams is a win in my book.

The state math is mostly finished. I just have to write. And write I will. But first!

Rachel Byler came through for her underdog girls from White Pigeon. She was projected to finish 12^th, but made it across the line in 7^th. Those five spots were greatly impactful, as her White Pigeon team advanced by a mere 2 points. She’s ending her senior year on the right note, hitting the 22’s in her past six races, a mark she hadn’t come close to in the previous three seasons.

Max Barron of Tekonsha also had himself an outstanding race. In terms of where he stood against his projection, it was about the same (projected 10^th, placed 11^th). But when you peek at his times, that’s meaningful. The first sub-18 in a career full of 18ish minute efforts.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Emma Riker	19:07.7	Kalamazoo Hackett	129.1
11	Kiera Piper	20:12.5	Kalamazoo Hackett	107.5
12	Rowan Allen	21:16.8	Mendon	86.1
10	Delaney McBride	21:33.5	Kalamazoo Hackett	80.5
11	Helen Donner	21:42.3	Three Oaks River Valley	77.6
12	Kate Van Es	21:53.9	Kalamazoo Hackett	73.7
12	Rachel Byler	22:08.8	White Pigeon	68.7
11	Brie Siems	22:20.4	Kalamazoo Hackett	64.9
10	Abigail Riker	22:21.0	Kalamazoo Hackett	64.7
12	Bethany Carpenter	22:22.1	Kalamazoo Hackett	64.3
11	Ella Hendrixson	22:22.3	Three Oaks River Valley	64.3
11	Harper Bowman	23:07.6	New Buffalo	49.1
11	Emmy Nofs	24:26.9	St Philip Catholic Central	22.7
11	Sarah Stemaly	24:40.9	Athens	18.0
12	Sandra Alavrez	24:57.9	Eau Claire	12.4
12	Kaitlyn Nealis	25:12.1	Decatur	7.6
9	Soni Stahlschmidt	25:19.2	New Buffalo	5.3

BOYS INDIVIDUAL RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Marek Butkiewicz	15:30.7	Kalamazoo Hackett	204.1
12	Landon Rogers	16:00.7	Three Oaks River Valley	194.1
9	Mason Rogers	16:10.6	Three Oaks River Valley	190.8
12	Sean Siems	16:13.9	Kalamazoo Hackett	189.7
11	Elias Baldwin	17:15.5	Decatur	169.2
12	Jesse Fielis	17:29.8	White Pigeon	164.4
11	Kellen Siems	17:39.8	Kalamazoo Hackett	161.1
10	Kadin McGee	17:44.3	Decatur	159.6
12	David Lane	17:52.2	White Pigeon	156.9
10	Joseph Edwards	17:53.6	New Buffalo	156.5
11	Max Barron	17:57.5	Tekonsha	155.2
10	Leo Lemieux	18:13.3	New Buffalo	149.9
11	Kyron Christner	18:31.0	Mendon	144.0
12	Charlie Gibson	18:32.7	Three Oaks River Valley	143.4
9	Lukasz Butkiewicz	18:33.7	Kalamazoo Hackett	143.1
11	Aiden Jackson	18:55.5	White Pigeon	135.9
12	Parker Volstorf	19:00.4	Three Oaks River Valley	134.2
11	Alejandro Lemus	19:01.8	Eau Claire	133.7
9	Henry Young	19:17.6	Kalamazoo Hackett	128.5
10	William Throw	19:40.6	White Pigeon	120.8
12	Ethan O’Connor	19:42.2	Athens	120.3
11	Colin Gallagher	19:52.2	Kalamazoo Hackett	116.9
12	Dalton Williams	19:55.2	Colon	115.9
9	Karston Kappenman	20:05.9	Kalamazoo Hackett	112.4
11	Dilan Vargas	20:09.5	Eau Claire	111.2
11	Jay Bronsink	20:30.6	Athens	104.1
12	Lucas Dudley	20:31.4	Mendon	103.9
10	Jacob Daniel	20:36.9	Eau Claire	102.0
11	Layne Collins	20:41.4	New Buffalo	100.5
12	Gavin Minor	20:43.9	Colon	99.7
9	Jeffrey Remijas	20:44.8	New Buffalo	99.4
9	Isaac Doubblestein	20:46.1	White Pigeon	99.0
11	Joseph Kinney	20:50.8	Athens	97.4
12	Carter Hetman	20:59.7	Colon	94.4
9	Kaleb Pschigoda	21:04.7	Three Oaks River Valley	92.8
11	Keio Trimm	21:05.0	Three Oaks River Valley	92.7
12	Kevin Vargas	21:05.2	Eau Claire	92.6
10	James Muir	21:11.5	St Philip Catholic Central	90.5
10	Matthew McGahan	21:14.9	White Pigeon	89.4
12	Devon Schaffer	21:24.0	White Pigeon	86.3
11	Gavin Thomas	21:26.6	Athens	85.5
10	Jayson Phelps	21:38.0	New Buffalo	81.7
11	August Johnson	21:42.1	New Buffalo	80.3
9	Liam Moreno	21:47.8	Mendon	78.4
10	Andrew Ellison	21:49.8	Marcellus	77.7
10	Caleb Stemaly	21:51.1	Athens	77.3
9	Lane Preston	22:05.3	Colon	72.6
12	Collin Trattles	22:10.0	Colon	71.0
9	Bernard Reilly	22:17.9	Colon	68.4
12	Noah Bohan	22:48.9	Marcellus	58.0
10	Matt Jansen	23:10.3	Marcellus	50.9
9	Mike Hernandez	23:10.5	Three Oaks River Valley	50.8
12	Dane Borgert	23:30.3	Colon	44.2
9	Vincent Lussier	23:50.0	Athens	37.7
11	Zachree Roebuck	24:04.9	Climax-Scotts	32.7
9	Porter Moulds	24:12.7	Athens	30.1