Back here with the third installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The girls stats were compiled as of Tuesday, the boys as of Thursday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results. When the final predictions are made, those most recent results will be taken into account.
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
It appears at this point in the year that we have five main competitors. Our defending champ, Abby Russell is back of course, the discus in my mind being the stronger of her two events. At the Metro Classic, she ripped a 149’4, vaulting her into Michigan’s All-Time Top 25 and the #2 rank across the entire state. Ava Wojciechowski just won the Oakland County crown in the discus, beating her Viking teammate Savannah Breitwiser and Elyse Finch. But both Breitwiser and Finch boast throws over 140’ and 135’ respectively, so they’re both capable of making a dent here. Midland’s Lillian Lince is undefeated on the year and Ms. Consistent in May, between 130’ and 141’ on all her best tosses. Along the way of that steadiness has come a SVL and Region 1 title.
2023 has been the year of Maelie Hope. The Whitehall senior opened her season with two massive throws, both over 150’ and has been mega consistent since. She’s undefeated on the year, winning the WMC, West Michigan Meet, and Region 12 along the way. And let’s mention she’s also excellent in the shot, 100m, AND 200m. There are two girls that could give her a run and both are peaking at the right time. Haley Guerrant is another one on an undefeated tear, having just captured the win at MITCA Team State, throwing a personal best along the way. Janae Hudson is also unbeaten and just grabbed a win at the vaunted Blue Water Meet of Champions, the unofficial Port Huron area title.
She placed 2nd here last year and the results show she’s not looking to let that happen again. Sophia Snellenberger has busted out some awe-inspiring throws, such as a 147’ to win Quincy’s home invitational and a 143’ to win MITS State. She’s also conserved her energy and done just enough to win, 15/15 on victories in her senior season. If anyone were to pull the minor upset, it could be Payton Otto, dropping down from Division 2 (2nd last year) or Gaby Reeve, coming up from Division 4 (3rd last year). Both have season bests above or near 130’
This is likely the most intriguing battle of all the discuses. Natalie Wandrie boasts the furthest personal best, a 130’ early in Harbor Springs. She’s been challenged lately by Kelsey Hansen, who pulled up within 10’ of her to grab 2nd in Region 31. Harley Bear and Emily Stinson both set personal bests to win their regional. Stinson has revenge on her mind from last year, Bear has championship experience, placing 6th and 17th the past two years. Lily Parker boasts the second-best season best (say that a thousand times), placing 2nd behind Janae Hudson in the Blue Water Championship and Emily Carbajal is undefeated on the year, coming into the State Finals on a championship roll. Region 35, TCC, and D4 Team State Titles will be a boost of confidence heading into this loaded competition.
Instead of the paragraphs, I had the idea of including a little fact about each qualifier. It turns out that idea was majorly misguided and took up way too much dang time. If I had done that for other events, I’d be writing these previews into 2024. Boys Discus throwers, please enjoy your extra bit of attention. 😊
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
Facts
Grade
Name
Team
Info
11
Brycen Anderson
Walled Lake Central
Division 1 leader has won the LVC and Region 9.
12
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
First time qualifier in the discus. SMAC and Region 3 Champion.
12
Demarrio Roetherford
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Madonna commit coming into his own as a senior, improving from 141′ to 165′, winning the Downriver League and Region 5 along the way.
11
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
Capable of some massive heaves, such as his 164′ at Punch a Hole in the Sky.
11
Merrick Hocking
Midland
Didn’t match his Regional distance, but gained a 2nd straight SVL Discus championship to add to the collection.
12
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
His 166′ to win Region 4 marks almost a 15′ improvement from 2022, where he placed 11th at State.
11
Garrett Weeden
Zeeland East
Another one capable of blasting one on a good day, multiple 160’+’s on his resume
12
Lucas Lesher
Holland West Ottawa
After a season full of 140’s and one 150, blasted a 162′ to win Region 2.
12
Lukas Ray
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Superb improvement in the disc, adding 29′ from his junior self, a great second fiddle to Roetherford.
10
Dominic Weatherly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
Has potential for big discs, evidenced by his 158′ to win at Dakota earlier in the month.
12
Hunter Harding
Brighton
Another one who’s rolled past 150′, doing it in a KLAA Championship win
11
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
Season of gradual progress extended to Metro Health, where Parker nudged past 150′.
11
Nathan Cody
Walled Lake Central
First time ever qualifier, his 3rd place in Region 9 a significant improvement from 18th as a freshman.
12
Luke Eros
Howell
Recovered from a weaker KLAA meet to almost match his lifetime best at Region 4.
12
Josh Kriekaard
Cedar Springs
Rigtht behind Lesher in Region 2, his 159′ toss a 12′ season best.
12
Nathan Cobbs
East Kentwood
11′ season best to capture 2nd in Region 3.
10
Teegan Simmons
Monroe
Has turned it up a notch in championship season, 151′ at Lincoln’s JV meet leading to a 3rd Place in Region 5.
10
Rusty Klaer
St. Joseph
Potential darkhorse, his 154′ at the GR Elite Challenge looming large on his portfolio.
10
Camden Pawlick
Saline
Majorly consistent in May with four of his five finals over 140′.
9
Andre Neumann
White Lake Lakeland
Freshman Oakland County Champ portends well for the future, as does gaining State Finals experience.
10
Max Stoecker
Midland
First year of throwing has been a success, placing 3rd in Region 1 and 2nd in the SVL.
11
Ian Fedewa
Caledonia
From 113′ as a sophomore to 149′ as a junior.
12
Mason Fraley
Salem
Used the confidence gained from getting to State and turned it into 150′ at Churchill on Tuesday.
12
Daniel Yarrington
Utica
Captured his first MAC White title in the discus.
12
Cade Riddle
Brighton
Has added 15′ to his best sophomore disc, qualifying for the first time ever.
10
Case Johnson
Greenville
153′ to place 3rd in Region 3 a 12′ season best.
11
Tyler Marrogy
Walled Lake Central
Rapid progress in the final few weeks, from a season in the 130′ range to 154′ in Region 9.
11
Idrys Cotton
Plymouth
143′ to win Region 6 was first foray into the 140’s.
12
Logan Costello
Grand Ledge
Rapid rise late, capped recently by CAAC Blue trophy.
12
Ryan Mitchell
Cedar Springs
Stepped up in a big way, ripping a 150’er when his previous best landed short of 130′.
12
David Rolands
Berkley
Placed second in Region 8, throwing a 4′ personal best in the process.
11
David Osagiede
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
Massive improvements abound, 40′ from his sophomore to junior years.
11
Nnaemeka Ikechi
Warren DeLaSalle
Has added 10′ between his sophomore and junior years.
11
William McPherson
Rochester Adams
After a season primarily in the 110’s, has gone 130’+ in two of his last three meets.
Back here with the second installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The girls stats were compiled as of Monday, the boys on Wednesday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results.
Somewhere in the time frame between compiling the girls info on Monday and the boys on Wednesday (don’t worry, I was planning ahead or working on other events), I figured I’d write a bit more info for each boy. I’d rather give little bits of info and if you’re reading, you can take that info and create your own story, rather than write paragraphs. So the girls have less writing, but I’ll fill that in when I make predictions. 🙂
DIVISION ONE
Facts
Name
Team
Info
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
2022 Champ. Over 57′ in every final this year.
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
Region 3 Champ. 9th Place in 2022.
Lukas Ray
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Region 5 Champ. 10’+ improvement from 2022.
Ben Przytula
Gibraltar Carlson
Downriver League champ in showdown with Lukas Ray.
Merrick Hocking
Midland
SVL and Region 1 Champ.
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
OK Green Champ, 2nd Place Region 2.
Garrett Weeden
Zeeland East
Region 2 Champ. Above 50′ in 2 of last 3 meets.
Idrys Cotton
Plymouth
Region 6 Champ, setting a PR along the way.
Jaxson Wilson
Hartland
13th Place – 2022. 2x KLAA Champ
David Rolands
Berkley
OAA Blue/Gold Champ, consistently near 50′ all year.
Jesse Lietzow
Warren DeLaSalle
CHSL Bishop Champ with two 50′ throws on his resume.
Case Johnson
Greenville
OK White Champ. Has improved 10’+ from his freshman campaign.
Omari Hairston
Beverly Hills Groves
Region 8 Champ and PR in the same meet.
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
7th Place – 2022, has added a foot to his previous best
Daniel Yarrington
Utica
2x MAC White Champ, also steady from 47′ to 49′.
John Dixner
Fenton
FML Champ, then first throw above 50′ at Region 1.
Garrod Alexander
Walled Lake Central
Region 9 and LVC Champ
Mason Fraley
Salem
2nd Place in Region 6. Consistent 45′ to 48′ thrower.
Max Stoecker
Midland
4th Place – Region 1. Has thrown 48′ in his first year of shot putting.
Reinaldo Williams
Grosse Pointe North
MAC Red and Region 7 Champ.
Liam Vaughan
Walled Lake Western
2nd Place in Region 9. Has also improved, this time by almost 10′.
Dominic Weatherly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
Region 10 Champ, setting a PB along the way.
Miland Weatherspoon
Jackson
45′ in Region 4 a significant improvement from his early season marks.
Alright, time to get started on these State Previews. Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. These pole vault stats were compiled as of Sunday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results.
No doubt they’ll pick up points for their Rocks squad, but in which order will the Stewarts finish? To win the KLAA, it was Emma. To win Region 6, it was Katie. On a quiet Livonia night yesterday, the two tied. They’re both peaking at the right time, throwing up high 11’s and above throughout the past few weeks. Who hung with them last night and is progressing rapidly? Dexter’s Raiden Kipfmiller, who along with Rockford’s Maiya Corrigan, are the two best freshman vaulters in the State and among the best in the country. And while all this back and forth is occurring in metro Detroit, Brooke Bowers is busy on her undefeated, state-leading (12’6”) season. She was third here last year, only bested by two seniors.
It’s championship time and it’s defending champ time. At this point in 2022, Jordyn Wright’s best was 11’4. She’s already soared above that mark three times, two of those in recent wins at Region 16 and the SEC White Championship. She’ll have adversaries right there though. Looking to reach one spot higher is Claire Agnew, who’s had her three best vaults in her last three meets. The Shiawasee senior only has one loss on her resume, to Allison Shelton, who on that same day where Wright captured the conference crown, grabbed one of her own in the FML meet, matching Wright’s state lead.
Learning with each other, achieving with each other, and going head-to-head has no doubt helped West Catholic’s Ally Olszewski and Heidi Schulten. The two have combined for no worse than top-4 in any of their meets thus far this spring. The burning question is – can anyone split the two apart? Addison Trierwiler might be a candidate, having reached 9’9” in wins at Region 30 and Alma Panther. Emma Wildt is another great candidate, with big ups in her resume, three 10’+ vaults while competing on the south side of the State.
For much of the year, Payton Haynes had been the class of the division, through Regionals the only girl to clear 10’. She’s been mega consistent too, each of her finals being above 9’. In the time between my compiling of these stats and writing this post, Rebecca Moeller has vaulted 10’3 to grab the state lead. She’s come on strong in the past two weeks, climbing over 9’6 on four separate occasions.
He just began his season recently, but Dolan Gonzales has been quick to reach awe-inspiring heights. His 16’1” to win Region 5 is the state lead, and that follows his 15’7” to win the SEC Red, which at the time was the state lead. Clark Sheldon won the previous meet on the Saline track, Golden Triangle, over a bunch of qualifiers, including Liam Kinney, another one who’s held the state lead. And over on the West Side, Joey Bonacci just got done demolishing the competition in Region 2, finishing over a foot ahead of a ton of state qualifiers.
Sandwiched between Dolan Gonzales’s state leads were a few days when David Conrad held the distinction, his 15’9 still one of the better marks across the entire state. He’s looking to improve from his 4th place finish a year ago. Sam Vesperman is also looking to move up, the sophomore continuing his undefeated season with a personal best and win in Region 16. We’ve had a multitude of battles between athletes clearing 13’, a mark that will put you in the mix for All-State. Robby Slaughter over Lucas Inosencio in Region 15, David Dana over Slaughter and Nico Lopez at Alma Panther.
At the outset, it appears to be a three-horse race. After placing 3rd indoor at SVSU, Chase Battani has been on a roll, winning everything in sight and clearing 14’ twice. The only person to best his 14’6” has been Tryce Tokar, who shot up to 14’8.25” in a Region 30 win, the sophomore rounding into form as he looks to defend his title. Jack Borgman is about as consistent as you’ll see, hitting at least 13’ in his last 9 competitions.
Steven Martin and Isaac Bowden enter on a roll. Martin has been undefeated for the past six weeks and vaulted 14’ to win Region 35. Bowden has been over 13’6 in three of his past five competitions. Logan Malloy is a newcomer, adding a foot and entering the 13’s. And the MSAC is vaulting paradise with Cooper Bolton, Isaiah Biers, and Brayden Clark going head to head in their jamborees. Bolton has won one, so has Biers, and Clark beat Biers in Region 37. But don’t count Isaiah out, that defending championship experience could come in handy.