*** = State Title Contender ** = Top Ten Contender * = State Qualifying Contender Based on the 2021-2025 ratings. WAB = Weighted Average Before, comparing a team’s top-5 avg. from the previous week’s rankings
Of course, comparing to State/Regional day isn’t perfect, but if you’re hitting these marks on less consequential days, that’s likely a good omen for championship season. And if not, I’m sure you’ll summon a superhuman effort when it matters more. With the Weighted Average Before, it can be a sign that based on this particular meet, a team could move up in the rankings.
The first batch of rankings are out. As time has gone on, I’ve pushed these back further and further. One, to grab more data and not rush. Two, beginning my own running journey again and trudging through Woodstock for hours in the woods.
Those two factors allow some of Michigan’s major invites to occur and great data to come in. Many of our state’s best have competed at Spartan, Holly, or Ottawa Hills, with seemingly everyone getting some results on paper. Every single meet with over 50 participants in each gender is accounted for (even if ratings aren’t posted for everything, they’re in my database.
The rankings take the individual ratings from each race and weigh them using factors of recency, field size, and field competitiveness. Those weighted ratings are then sorted by team, scored against the entire division, and ranked. Thus, teams with more depth tend to be ranked a little higher than they’d be at a regular invite or even the State Finals. But I know no better way to rank all the teams in a division than to compare against all teams in a division.
As always, these are for fun and a vehicle to drive interest in the best sport in the world. If they cause undue stress or pressure or motivate you to write me unkind messages (has only happened this summer, not in season, believe it or not) this site might not be for you. That’s fine, the many XC fans of Michigan will enjoy it all the same.
Summer Misses
Genesee Christian
The summer projections had Genesee Christian with only six girls total. In reality, the Soldiers have added three more. One impactful one is Faith Smith, a transfer over from Davison. She’s continued where she left off last fall, a season where she gradually whittled her time down into the 21’s. Two races in and she’s already moved to the mid-20’s.
Lutheran Westland
Has added new faces and seen improvement from the ones that are there. One notable time subtractor has been Sydney Erickson, who has already lowered her PB from 21:58 to the mid-21’s.
Title Contenders
Far and away the favorites at this point a month in are Hillsdale Academy. Done so through a combination of strength and speed, with seven girls projected in the top-50 for the entire division. The Colts kicked off Holly with a route, scoring nearly 70 points clear of their nearest competitor.
Which was the venerable Whitmore Lake. Despite losing a senior class with many longtime contributors, the Trojans have found their way back into trophy contention. Having the always reliable Kaylie Livingston always helps, as does introducing 9th graders to the competitive HS scene. Both June Counts and Sierra Sherer got a taste of that at Springfield Oaks, both running to season bests under a higher pressured environment.
Summer Misses
Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
With these lower division teams, adding just one more girl than expected can shoot you up the rankings. After Caleigh Gardner has ripped off four sub-23’s to kick off her career, her Crusaders have moved into the top-27 here in D3.
Charlevoix
The same has occurred up on the shores of Lake Charlevoix, where sophomore Chelsea Philp has joined the XC team for her first season in the sport. She’s gotten faster each time out and was one of the rare ones to run a PR at Glen Lake, a surefire sign that there’s more to come. Her and others have helped the Rayders move up a whopping 40 spots in the rankings.
Title Contenders
Lansing Catholic
The Cougars are going for the three-peat and it appears there’s not much end in sight. They haven’t been blessed with their full, talented lineup for a 5k yet this year, though that hasn’t impacted their ability to run with anyone. The LC girls were runner-up in the overall standings at their two home meets, victorious over everyone in their division. Even at Averill, the Cougars were only bested by one other D1 team, finishing ahead of three other ranked teams in that division.
Two teams have separated themselves from others in the race for 2nd – Traverse City St. Francis and Grand Rapids Covenant Christian. The two have very similar profiles, with great depth and a pack, with runners at the front capable of stepping on the MIS podium. TCSF may be a tad bit stronger in the 3rd and 4th spots. Either way, the two teams have found success in this early season, where St. Francis won the 1st Session’s Small School division and GRCC beat out many D1 teams later in the day.
Summer Misses
Bloomfield Hills Marian
In the summer, the Mustangs were thought to be a team that would be right on the cusp of the rankings, an outfit that was in contention for a team qualifier. They were gonna have quality depth, which is always an important factor in the fall. A month into the season, Marian seems to have great depth. Seven girls have been sub-22 thus far, with four of them under 21:00. Freshmen have added themselves into this competitive mix, with Marian Byrd speeding toward the 19’s and Josephine Humphrey powering to 19:51 in her Lamplighter opener.
Title Contenders
Last fall, I felt Holland Christian was a year away, and it turns out I was both wrong and right. November’s State Finals emphatically stated that they were a force in 2025. The beginning of 2026 has confirmed that they may be even better. Avery Engbers is doing her usual thing, Ellery Lampen is improving by leaps and bounds (already 20+ sec. faster than ever), and the additions of Molly White and Anna Zietlow are going smoothly.
If anyone has separated themselves for second, it’s tradition-rich Otsego. The youthful Bulldogs have depth and a freshman that’s improving by leaps and bounds, Addison Andress. Andress just dropped a 30+ sec. PB at George Dales and given the many girls she has to run with, there’s surely more to come.
Summer Misses
Brighton
It definitely needed a second glance, but yes, the Bulldogs were outside of the top-27 over the summer. Which made sense, as Brighton needed to replace a senior class that had accomplished much in its four years. A month into the season, this proud culture has pounced on the opportunity to produce another elite team. Many 9th graders have been added to the fray, led by Reilly Klas. Also providing a boost have been returners such as Reese Cournoyer, who has already bested her late 2025 form and is closing in on the 19’s.
Title Contenders
Of course, Ann Arbor Pioneer is probably the favorite. Natasza Dudek is Natasza Dudek, Sienna Klemmer and Kiera Von Blon are perhaps Michigan’s top-two at this point of the season. They might need to only score two girls!
But results are results, athletes gotta run and cross the finish line. Saturday at Holly, Northville was the most successful at that feat. The Mustangs placed three girls in the top-7, then had the 2nd fastest 4-5 of the D1 race, enough to win by a comfortable 23-point margin over Ann Arbor Skyline, who appears to be the closest of the competitors to Northville. The Eagles were missing two of their projected varsity contributors (Northville was missing one as well), so this matchup may be a little closer than what we saw in the actual standings.
Summer Misses
Painesdale-Jeffers
So many newcomers. Sophia Johnson, Karissa Rautiola, and Evelyn Sturos all donning the Jet jersey for the first time ever. And a girl that’s been there for awhile, Remi Coponen, has let us know she’s a changed runner from last fall. At this point in 2025, Coponen was above 23:00. A month in and she’s already nearing 21-flat.
Title Contenders
This could be a very competitive race. Sault Ste. Marie and Marquette have seemingly separated themselves from the rest. The Blue Devils have the frontrunner (Asia Jones) and perhaps better depth. The Sentinels could have the ability to place two girls in the top-3 (Charlotte Jones and Emma Ziegler).
Both Munising and L’Anse appear to be the favorites in D2 and D3. The Purple Hornets have raced often in 2026, on all five occasions appearing as the top D3 (and a few times, the top) team in the field. Munising just got back from a trip down south to Holly where every single one of their competitors reached a personal best.
Individual Rankings
As each year comes and goes, I’ve tended to gradually dislike ranking individuals during a season. But I feel this list is better than just sorting by SB’s. And I’ll just hide this at the bottom. When we get closer to championship time, more writing will be dedicated toward individuals, for now, this’ll do.
The first batch of rankings are out. As time has gone on, I’ve pushed these back further and further. One, to grab more data and not rush. Two, beginning my own running journey again and trudging through Woodstock for hours in the woods.
Those two factors allow some of Michigan’s major invites to occur and great data to come in. Many of our state’s best have competed at Spartan, Holly, or Ottawa Hills, with seemingly everyone getting some results on paper. Every single meet with over 50 participants in each gender is accounted for (even if ratings aren’t posted for everything, they’re in my database).
The rankings take the individual ratings from each race and weigh them using factors of recency, field size, and field competitiveness. In order to account for races where a runner may not go all out, when four or more races are run, the top 67% of a runner’s resume is considered. Those weighted ratings are then sorted by team, scored against the entire division, and ranked. Thus, teams with more depth tend to be ranked a little higher than they’d be at a regular invite or even the State Finals. But I know no better way to rank all the teams in a division than to compare against all teams in a division.
As always, these are for fun and a vehicle to drive interest in the best sport in the world. If they cause undue stress or pressure or motivate you to write me unkind messages (has only happened this summer, not in season, believe it or not) this site might not be for you. That’s fine, the many XC fans of Michigan will enjoy it all the same.
Summer Misses
Martin
The Clippers have benefitted from the addition of Thomas Sigler, a transfer from Allegan. As a freshman, Sigler raced into the 17’s on a few occasions and this year, he’s already matched those marks. As an example of their progress, take a peek at the SAC Jamboree results. Last year in the SAC Championship, Martin placed 11th. This fall’s first conference matchup, 4th.
Title Contenders
About the same as thought in the summer – Holland Calvary Christian, Breckenridge, and Hillsdale Academy separating themselves from the field. The latter two faced off at Holly, with the Huskies prevailing by way of their two low-sticks and the better fifth guy. Calvary has laid low these past few weeks, intentional scheduling a benefit of being conference-free. Their last great effort came with great results, a runner-up finish in their division (Nightfall, comprised of D2/D3 teams) at Under the Lights. Calvary is still the favorite at this point, with Breckenridge and Hillsdale Academy showing the potential to hang given their days at Holly.
Summer Misses
Benzie Central
Returning to the sport for the first time since 8th grade, Oliver Graetz has been a welcome addition to the Huskies. He’s spent the past two springs running for their track squad, specializing in mid-distance with his 2:02 800m and place on BC’s state qualifying 4×8. Moving up to 5k, he’s been able to reach into the mid-17’s on three occasions, including this past weekend at Holly, where Benzie placed 4th in D4.
Ithaca
Coming out for the sport for the first time as a sophomore, Dutch Smith has catapulted the Yellowjackets into the top-27. He experienced success as a freshman on the track, his sub-11 in the 3200m ranking 26th among D3’s 9th graders. He’s undeniably progressed since then, dropping a 17:21 in the muck at Holly.
Title Contenders
Hanover-Horton has passed all the tests thus far. The Comets haven’t been shy about traveling to large meets, competing at both Spartan and Holly. Each of those two consequential meets have seen H-H beat other top-5 teams, Saugatuck at Holly and Hart at Spartan. Thus far, the Comets are displaying a lethal combo of depth that can compete with anyone, supplemented by low-sticks that see the need for only scoring three.
There does seem to be a gap between H-H and the others, but Hart, Saugatuck, Lansing Catholic, and Maple City Glen Lake all have the mettle to find early November glory. As thought in the summer, Hart might have the best depth of the bunch, the ability for all seven Pirates to score. Both Glen Lake and Saugatuck are seeing improvement from runners that gives thought to their potential. Racing in less than admirable conditions at Holly didn’t matter much to Leo Avalos, who nearly matched his PR. Dean McKellar didn’t have quite as much mud in his Saturday, but he still had to traverse the Glen Lake hills, which even then couldn’t derail his ascendancy, as he notched a lifetime best. And Lansing Catholic is likely a bit underrated, as the Cougars cruised through their home invite. I’d expect their ranking to improve as future results pour in.
Summer Misses
Petoskey
Collectively, the Northmen have just gotten a ton better. The projected top-five from this summer’s work is the same as their top-five through this first month. The summer projections had their top-five averaging ~177, right now they’re sitting at a 187, around a 30 sec. difference. If I had to pick one runner to highlight, it’d be Garrett Lansing, who had broken 18:00 once prior to this year and has already dropped a minute from that accomplishment.
Title Contenders
Holland Christian is the clear favorite thus far. The Maroons have three big races under their belt – Portage Central Early Bird, Under the Lights, and Ottawa Hills. They’ve emerged from all three with dominating wins, sometimes over the best D1 has to offer. They’ve got the frontrunners AND the depth, sub-16 from three of their boys and all projected scorers under 16:15.
At Holly, Pinckney put up the kinda performance that can put the Pirates in contention. The course was getting rough by their midday races, but that didn’t deter the red n’ black from placing five in the top-13. Flint Powers Catholic was runner-up in that race, but was missing one of their typical contributors.
Summer Misses
East Kentwood
Not even AI could predict new additions coming into the fray who had never run XC prior. Both Blaiz Shyaka and Jimma Atem have been impactful for the Falcons, each reaching into the 16’s this fall. Their contributions helped EK win the first OK Red Jamboree and stun the west side scene with a division win at Under the Lights.
Title Contenders
This year will be as fun as any, five teams seeming to separate themselves thus far – Brighton, Jenison, Ann Arbor Skyline, Lowell, and Traverse City West.
We’ve been blessed to see these five go at it in varying matchups:
Brighton vs. Jenison at Northville Mustang, with Jenison claiming titles in both the under and upperclassmen race.
Jenison, Lowell, and Traverse City West at Ottawa Hills, with Traverse City West emerging on top. The Titans had a whopping four boys under 16:00, matching Jenison’s depth, but also placing two in the top-10 of that loaded field.
Brighton vs. Ann Arbor Skyline at Holly, with Brighton winning by three points.
Traverse City West is probably a little underrated as it’s clear that they cruised through their Titan Takeoff. Lowell’s ranking is aided by having Avi Elabed, who can hopefully return to give the Red Arrows their full potential. Jenison has been consistent all year, and Skyline/Brighton had their best effort of the year at Springfield Oaks.
Summer Misses
Munising
Freshmen have improved the Mustang fortune, notably Evan Kelto and Orin Shalom. The two have gotten faster and faster, their latest escapade coming at Holly, where both embraced the trek to find faster competition, setting significant lifetime bests.
Title Contenders
Going for eight straight are the Marquette Sentinels, running so quick that there doesn’t seem to be much stopping them. They’re not as dominant as the 2024 team, but still tried their hand in the elite section of the Spartan Invite.
In D2, early returns suggest two teams in top competition – Rudyard and Munising. They’ve faced off twice, Rudyard prevailing at the Emerald Invite and Munising coming through at Holly. Munising appears to have the better depth, Rudyard the quicker frontrunner, and as XC tends to go, this could depend on the field’s quality and quantity.
Two D3 teams dot these top-10 rankings, the highest ranked being Rapid River. The Rockets likely made the longest drive of anyone coming to Holly, placing 9th in the D5 race.
Individual Rankings
As each year comes and goes, I’ve tended to gradually dislike ranking individuals during a season. But I feel this list is better than just sorting by SB’s. And I’ll just hide this at the bottom. When we get closer to championship time, more writing will be dedicated toward individuals, for now, this’ll do.
