MITCA: Where the Graphing Method Goes Wrong

Above are the graphs from the Boys MITCA race this past weekend. The line hits the y-intercept at 943, so the adjustment is 54 seconds faster than AF2018.

So for Brendan Favazza, the formula is:

(1560-(931.1+54))/3 = 191.6

He won the race, one loaded with all-state talent. THIS DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE. IT SHOULD BE HIGHER.

Here is the problem with the graphing method. It assumes that the field you’re comparing is equal.

Allendale Falcon is a pretty fair representation of an invitational. MITCA is not. Neither are States or Regionals. The faster runners are competing and many below our top sevens are not. The line for these races ends up trending towards too low of a number.

That’s where I use REFERENCE RUNNERS.

This late in the year, there are 35,000+ performances from either boys or girls, on average of about 6-7 rated races per runner. There is a built in expectation of one’s rating, and that’s what I used to determine the adjustment for MITCA.

Name	MITCA Time	Unadjusted Rating	Name	2019 Rating	Difference
Aidan Hollandsworth	19:35.2	128.3	Aidan Hollandsworth	162.9	-34.6
Akshay Reddy	16:44.3	185.2	Akshay Reddy	194.4	-9.1
Alan Atkinsmith	17:37.0	167.7	Alan Atkinsmith	169.4	-1.7
Alex Lawhorne	20:18.1	114.0	Alex Lawhorne	135.5	-21.5
Alex Mathews	19:14.9	135.0	Alex Mathews	151.2	-16.2
Andrew Daniels	19:13.7	135.4	Andrew Daniels	140.6	-5.2
Andrew Grier	19:43.5	125.5	Andrew Grier	117.8	7.7
Andrew Lane	15:56.1	201.3	Andrew Lane	204.5	-3.2
Andrew Nolan	15:44.7	205.1	Andrew Nolan	207.5	-2.4
Andrew Sesti	16:20.9	193.0	Andrew Sesti	194.9	-1.9
Armaan Lehal	21:56.1	81.3	Armaan Lehal	98.8	-17.5
Austin Aldrich	19:06.8	137.7	Austin Aldrich	159.3	-21.6
Austin Smelker	17:51.8	162.7	Austin Smelker	173.2	-10.4
Bo Anderson	18:48.8	143.7	Bo Anderson	151.9	-8.1
Braxton Shutko	19:03.7	138.8	Braxton Shutko	147.5	-8.7
Brendan Favazza	15:31.1	209.6	Brendan Favazza	216.7	-7.1
Brenden Schroeder	17:58.3	160.6	Brenden Schroeder	176.6	-16.0
Brenden Wallace	20:59.6	100.1	Brenden Wallace	118.0	-17.9
Bryce Brown	17:07.6	177.5	Bryce Brown	178.3	-0.8
Bryce Mathews	18:53.9	142.0	Bryce Mathews	142.8	-0.7

Here, I am determining how much slower Shepherd ran compared to the average rating. I had 143 matches, showing Shepherd was 7.9 rating points slower than the average rating.

But as with the graphing method, I want to eliminate outliers. Taking the average of the data points between the two lines, Shepherd ran 7.3 points (or 22 seconds slower) than the average rating.

So again, for Favazza:

(1560-(931.1-22))/3 = 217.0

Personally, I prefer using the graphing method first, especially in larger fields. We’re blessed here to have large meets opening the season, such as your Ann Arbor Early Bird, Pete Moss, Corunna, Portage Early Bird, or Under the Lights. Those help set a standard for using reference runners to begin the season. For the record, reference runners were the primary method used for Regionals and State.