The Regional Previews: Division 2, Region 15

There’s been much consternation, accusations, arguments, and general confusion with regard to a few regional selections this year, Region 15 being one of them. I’d like to work through what I think the intentions were of the MHSAA and the regional selection committee.

Now I’ve never sat in this room, nor do I even know their philosophy, but here’s what I’ve heard/read between the lines over the years:

1. The hosts (and their courses) are not known before the regions are selected
2. Geographically, the regions must make sense as to how they’re drawn
3. There are some processes to balance out and create “fair” regionals

Now if someone wants to correct me on the above points, go ahead! Transparency might alleviate the complaints from coaches.

Anyhow, Region 15 is a part of Division Two. To look at Region 15, you have to look at Division Two as a whole. The division added six teams and lost seven.

Take a peek at the general areas of the teams added vs. the teams lost to other divisions. Five teams added from Metro Detroit/Tri Cities (Bay City, Saginaw, Midland), four teams lost from those areas. The west side adds GR West Catholic and loses two. To make up the difference, the general shift is east to west, south to north.

There are four regions in the areas comprised of the Thumb, Tri-Cities, Blue Water, Metro Detroit, and Ann Arbor.

Region 15 = Blue (typically teams from the Thumb/Tri Cities)
Region 16 = Yellow (Typically Upper Oakland County/Livingston)
Region 17 = Grey (Blue Water and Eastside)
Region 18 = Black (Downriver extending toward Ann Arbor)

Coming back to point 2, the regions must make sense geographically. Taking a gander at the map, that appears to be the case. I’m on the fence about a few – I think Imlay City and North Branch share bit more in common with Port Huron area teams than they do the Shepherd/Almas of the world. Goodrich and Ortonville Brandon are more similar geographically to the teams in Region 16 than they are those in 15.

But the issue is given the teams added into D2 and lost from D2, some teams have to move north. Shepherd in particular loses Carrollton and Bullock Creek, then Gladwin moving to Region 10 to make up for two teams lost from the west side. In essence, Shepherd has to replace three teams and they must come from somewhere, and the only logical direction is from the south.

Here’s where I begin to disagree with the committee’s decisions. Shepherd is a strong region, particularly on the girls side, having three teams in my top-15. I love many of the teams in Regions 16 and 17, but historically, they’re weaker. Glancing at the map, there are six teams that could go either 2-3 directions. Linden, Lake Fenton, Goodrich, Ortonville Brandon, Imlay City, and North Branch. Linden is solid (great in the sprints, but that’s another topic), Lake Fenton and Ortonville have had studs, and Goodrich is the oddball. The Martian girls finished 7^th in D2, lose no one, and add four girls that were sub-13 in middle school. Goodrich is the school that should’ve been center in the thoughts of the committee and the school that sets the wheels in motion.

In my opinion, the logical step would be to move Goodrich and Ortonville Brandon to Region 16 and move Linden and Lake Fenton to Region 15. Or, even though I didn’t include Region 14, move Linden and Lake Fenton to 14, move the teams that make geographic sense from 14 to 15, then include Goodrich and Ortonville Brandon in 16.

I *think* the hesitancy with switching Ortonville/Goodrich and Linden/Lake Fenton goes back to the regional host issue. The hosts aren’t known ahead of time. There are a few courses/schools that typically host in the Oakland/Livingston County areas. Lake Fenton, Kensington, Huron Meadows, Hess Hathaway, and Holly.

Lake Fenton = light blue dot
Huron Meadows = purple dot (actually further south, idk what I was thinking)
Hess Hathaway = red dot
Kensington = pink dot
Holly = orangeish dot
Red circle to the left = Lake Fenton and Linden
Red circle to the right = Ortonville Brandon and Goodrich

For Lake Fenton, it wouldn’t make sense for the Blue Devils to host a regional, but compete elsewhere. For Kensington and Huron Meadows, Goodrich and Ortonville would have to travel past the Linden/Lake Fenton area in order to compete at their regional. Hess Hathaway is equidistant from each, but HH didn’t host this year, so perhaps that wasn’t even on the table. Clintonwood is another option, but if memory is correct, they typically only host one division. With Holly hosting, moving Goodrich there is rational, but you don’t know ahead of time that they’re hosting.

What I might suggest is this, a check on the regional hosting issue:

1. Draw the regionals first, making the best work that can be done to create geographically and competitively sound regionals, creating a rough but editable draft
2. Finalize regional hosts, limiting unnecessary travel if possible
3. Come back to the map and make final edits

For this case, once you have Holly finalized as a host, you avoid many of the issues caused by the other traditional regional sites in the vicinity of those upper Oakland County schools.

Yes, I know the committee works hard. They’ve done a great job in improving the competitive quality of all regionals (ESPECIALLY IN METRO DETROIT’S DIVISION ONE SCENE). This is a minor hiccup in the face of their hard work. I’m just hoping to shed some light on what may have been the committee’s thought process and what I may have done differently. I hope that a greater transparency towards the regional selection process comes as a result.

Last Year

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON
FINAL PROJECTIONS
THE RESULT

Girls

1. Alma (15^th)
2. Frankenmuth (12^th)
3. Freeland (22^nd)

Boys

1. Freeland (10^th)
2. Alma (21^st)
3. Clio (17^th)

Top 27 Teams

Previous years had top-25 teams, but there’s 27 (and sometimes more) team qualifiers and what does it hurt to add another two?

Girls

Goodrich (Top 4), Frankenmuth (8^th), Alma (12^th), Freeland (15^th)

Boys

Alma (10^th), Frankenmuth (21^st), Freeland (22^nd), Goodrich (24^th), Flint Powers Catholic (25^th)

(If your team isn’t listed in the images above or the scores below, you probably don’t have five returners, at least on ol’ athletic.net. I’m sure many of these teams will fill out their rosters by late October)

Projected Scores

Place	Girls Team	Score
1	Goodrich	40
2	Frankenmuth	59
3	Alma	82
4	Freeland	83
5	Shepherd	192
6	Saginaw Swan Valley	215
7	Flint Powers Catholic	230
8	Flint Kearsley	262
9	Imlay City	272
10	Clio	297
11	Birch Run	303
12	North Branch	340
13	Ortonville Brandon	345
14	Bay City John Glenn	361
15	Essexville-Garber	372
16	Bay City Central	389

Place	Boys Team	Score
1	Alma	77
2	Frankenmuth	115
3	Flint Powers Catholic	120
4	Freeland	122
5	Goodrich	125
6	Clio	126
7	Shepherd	153
8	Flint Kearsley	202
9	Saginaw Swan Valley	219
10	Ortonville Brandon	272
11	Birch Run	275
12	North Branch	329
13	Imlay City	335
14	Bay City Central	421
15	Essexville-Garber	423

Top Runners

Thought I’d give a review of some of the top returners in each region. Returners means no incoming freshman (you’ll get your days in the sun). If you’re on a top team or in the 50 Tickets and you’re projected highly here, you hit the jackpot! Yes, I’m writing a bit less than previous years, but I think I’ve learned my lesson in that I need to conserve energy and brainpower for all divisions and regions. Typically by August, I’m rushing to get these done. This time around, hopefully all regions get the same amount of coverage.

Mary Richmond, Frankenmuth

I’ll have to fact check this, but I feel like she’s the only D2 senior that’s been All-State in both the 1600m and 3200m in each of her three seasons. Either way, true or not, I think that speaks to her strength. The State Finals these past three years have not been the most optimal conditions, yet she’s found a way to get to finish line quicker than most each time out.

Ezgi Kurt, Alma

The State XC Finals may not have gone her way, but I’m guessing that callused her and created a stronger girl. Such as one that aggressively led the first heat at Indoor State 3200m, then placed 6^th in Division 2’s outdoor finals.

Kamryn Lauinger, Goodrich

She’s been the Region 16 Champion in each of her two Goodrich seasons. Now the move up north, but I don’t think she’s the type to back down from any challenge, having been All-State each of the past two years.

TJ Hansen, Freeland

Your defending regional champ, twice over. He ran a 16:21 here as a freshman through the muddy start and finish, then dropped a good 30 sec. during his sophomore campaign. More to be written later…

Elliott Sirianni, Clio

Threw down a sub-16 at Greater Flint, then threw down a track season for the ages. Concentrated on the 800m and 1600m, winning the FML and placing 6^th in 1600m. His 800’s weren’t bad either, just slightly on the north side of 2:00. Most applicable to cross may be his 9:21, only run once all year.

Thomas Larson, Alma

What I think is most striking about his talent is that it’s not just concentrated on one event. He qualified for State in the 3200m, dropped below 2:00 at the tail end of the year, and won the freshman mile race at NON.

David Murphy, Flint Powers Catholic

If track is a peek into his fitness, I think he’s in line for a significant leap. A 9:41 at Davison’s Twilight Classic is the highlight, but there were a few other sub-10’s in there too.

Landen Wise, Frankenmuth

Knocked it out during his freshman year of track, running 4:32 and 10:04, then carried that over to his first season of XC, where he again knocked it out. A sub-16 close here at Shepherd, a 12^th place finish in Divison Two.

Andrew Yax, Clio

Who was this different man who ran as a junior? After barely slipping under 18:00 in 2021, Andrew was sub-17 in his final eight races of 2022.