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2026 Mid-Season Regional Projections: Division Three

We’re actually a bit past halfway, but in my mind, Portage is the end of the regular season. Past this upcoming weekend, the schedule will be dominated by championships – county, league, area, regional, and state. In anticipation of that, why not some regional projections?

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

  • The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
    • Runners with three or less rated races have all races counted
  • Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. Every runner that’s run a rated race from September 1st on is included.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

  • They account for course conditions and distance
    • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
    • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
  • They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 194 of those 216 top-3 regional teams, the previous year, 197 of 216. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Any Surprises?

Muskegon Western Michigan Christian

Over the summer, the expectation was that Owen Sytsema, Josiah Scholma, and Eli Morse would be valuable contributors. And that’s surely been the case. The expectation, however, didn’t account for Sam Hwang. Hwang had been a solid long sprinter for the Warriors in the spring, but hadn’t joined the XC squad until this fall. He’s been a quick learner, already vaulting into the 16’s, helping WMC move up in the XC world.

Ithaca

Which probably should’ve been expected given the tradition and culture here. After all, last year, the Yellowjackets were 4th in D3. Then they went and won Team State on the track. But they did have to replace four boys from 2025’s XC squad. In times of high turnover, reliable seniors provide a great foundation, with Evan MacLaren running in the very low-16’s on a few occasions this fall. Turning to potential-ridden freshman track kids can help, too, as the introduction of Dutch Smith to the fall sport has gone as well as you can hope.

RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
191Charlevoix357181.1
192Traverse City St. Francis6517167.6
193Grayling9923158.0
194Roscommon130151.2
195Lake City135150.0
196Mancelona171142.3
197Boyne City180143.6
198Kalkaska188137.7
199Harbor Springs201135.2
1910Elk Rapids219132.4
1911Standish-Sterling281112.3
1912Cheboygan37282.5
1913Pinconning38079.6
1914Tawas41968.0
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
201Hart463185.6
202Maple City Glen Lake476184.9
203Benzie Central7611173.9
204Mason County Central167144.4
205Manton172145.3
206Kingsley173143.4
207McBain188138.4
208Manistee206131.3
209Harrison241121.2
2010Shelby244114.1
2011Leroy Pine River256114.0
2012Hesperia31591.4
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
211Muskegon Western Michigan Christian6215169.4
212Grand Rapids Covenant Christian9921158.9
213Delton-Kellogg9922159.8
214Montague10727158.3
215The Potter’s House11626155.6
216Lakeview118155.1
217Kent City221126.2
218North Muskegon229124.7
219Newaygo240121.6
2110Grandville Calvin Christian257102.2
2111Vermontville Maple Valley279111.5
2112Ravenna30494.6
2113Grant34561.2
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
221Saugatuck272186.4
222Holland Black River7419167.9
223Buchanan10925155.9
224Fennville110154.9
225Red Arrow122155.0
226Schoolcraft180137.5
227Parchment201129.2
228Watervliet243117.9
229Constantine262113.4
2210Bloomingdale279108.2
2211Bangor28198.9
2212Hartford28899.9
2213Kalamazoo Christian293100.6
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
231Hanover-Horton391192.9
232Jonesville605183.8
233Centreville779178.3
234Jackson Lumen Christi788178.6
235Quincy194143.9
236Hudson208138.9
237Bronson214137.5
238Napoleon234132.1
239Olivet263124.6
2310Union City270118.5
2311Springport290115.7
2312Brooklyn Columbia Central304113.8
2313Galesburg-Augusta34395.4
2314Homer35678.6
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
241Pewamo-Westphalia5413172.1
242Ithaca6920166.3
243Belding105153.8
244Montrose106153.2
245Bath125151.2
246Laingsburg142141.6
247Saranac150139.3
248Chesaning188130.6
249New Lothrop238113.9
2410Ovid-Elsie27998.0
2411St. Louis31486.2
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
251Caro4812174.9
252Gladwin6718167.9
253Midland Bullock Creek11124157.9
254Sanford-Meridian137152.1
255Hemlock154148.2
256Pigeon-Laker158147.9
257Unionville-Sebewaing201136.8
258Beaverton208133.6
259Otisville LakeVille225128.5
2510Sandusky256115.6
2511Harbor Beach26994.2
2512Millington319102.7
2513Carrollton33886.2
2514Saginaw Valley Lutheran38852.2
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
261Lansing Catholic334185.2
262Rochester Hills Lutheran NW5914175.0
263Leslie106152.7
264Charyl Stockwell Academy120143.9
265Almont151131.6
266Clawson160126.5
267New Haven166123.9
268Stockbridge181115.5
269Marine City24091.7
2610Algonac25782.9
2611St. Clair Shores South Lake28643.2
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
271Blissfield5510173.3
272Ann Arbor Greenhills6816169.6
273Plymouth Christian Academy109156.5
274Monroe St. Mary CC114154.5
275Erie Mason126147.7
276Clinton150141.2
277Grass Lake158138.2
278Ottawa Lake-Whiteford178131.9
279Adrian Madison227116.8
2710Onsted235114.0
2711Detroit Cristo Rey347-6.4

Battles to Watch

Region 21

A cluster! Covenant Christian, Delton-Kellogg, Montague, and The Potter’s House, all ranked between 21st and 27th. Add in Lakeview, who’s right there in the conversation of projected points, but just outside the top-27. These guys get here in a number of ways – Montague and Lakeview with low-sticks, Covenant Christian with a strong pack, Delton-Kellogg and Potter’s House with a mix of the two. We do have some recent common matchups, with Covenant Christian besting Potter’s House at Autumn Sunrise and defeating Montague at Allendale. Lakeview and Potter’s House recently locked head at Bluejay, with Lakeview’s advantage coming through their top-2, only putting 8 points on the board.

Region 23

Yeahhhh, this is a rough one. FOUR top-10 teams, including D3’s top-ranked squad. Hanover-Horton, through all they’ve presented, should be clear of this mess. Behind those Comets, you’ve got #5 Jonesville, #8 Lumen Christi, and #9 Centreville. The Titans are ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in the overall ranking, as they seem a bit stronger at the most consequential (in a larger field) 5th spot. But these teams won’t be racing the entire state at Sharp Park. Centreville and Jonesville are probably running the strongest right now, but Lumen Christi may have the best depth and they’ve surely been there before.

We have not seen all three in the same race. We will on Saturday.

Region 24

Over 75 miles separate the two schools in the wide-ranging Region 24. Considerably less than 75 points separate Belding and Montrose in the mid-season projections. The gap is a single point in the projections, at Bluejay, it was 21 points by way of a Montague’s 6th place finish. The major gap came up front, with Montrose’s Eli Hobson pulling through with a major season best (17:01 > 16:34). Of course, a regional setting won’t have as deep a field as Shepherd, thus Belding will be hoping the impact of one low-stick won’t be as great.

RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
19112Hunter Eaton203.2Charlevoix
19212Isaac Dionne192.3Boyne City
19312William Ready190.1Traverse City St. Francis
19412Ryder Hopkins187.7Charlevoix
19511Aurie Selph182.3Charlevoix
19611Jacob Muladore173.7Charlevoix
19712Evan Civinskas171.4Roscommon
19810Mathieu Moore170.8Grayling
19912Thomas Janisse169.6Roscommon
191011William (Liam) Mahaffy169.5Grayling
191111Charlie Denherder169.1Elk Rapids
191212Brayden Spears167.6Lake City
191311Harper Mullet163.5Traverse City St. Francis
191411Hayden Mohrhardt163.4Traverse City St. Francis
191512Finn Parish162.9Boyne City
191612Bryce Reid161.5Elk Rapids
191710Louis Ready161.0Traverse City St. Francis
191812Nate Gorman160.2Traverse City St. Francis
191912Maxwell Drenth158.7Charlevoix
192012Leo Nothstine158.4Grayling
192112Donavin Reist156.5Mancelona
192211Owen McGlone156.2Kalkaska
192312Carter Root154.6Lake City
192410Eli Hejnal152.3Lake City
192512Eli Williamson151.8Standish-Sterling
192612Jake Klemmer151.7Roscommon
192710Lewis Smith150.1Mancelona
19289Joshua Fox147.0Kalkaska
192912Liam Allen146.9Grayling
193011Hunter Bonner146.3Roscommon
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
20110Spencer McNitt202.1Maple City Glen Lake
20211Eli VanPoortfliet195.9Benzie Central
20312Abraham Feeney195.7Maple City Glen Lake
20411Silas Ackley194.5Hart
20512Cage Edingfield191.1Benzie Central
20611Tristan Hernandez189.7Kingsley
20711Timothy Wolff188.8Hart
20812Carson Ackley186.0Hart
20911Edison Huizinga185.3Manistee
201010Christian Feeney183.3Maple City Glen Lake
201112Lincoln Bailey182.4Maple City Glen Lake
201212Logan Young181.1Harrison
201312Mason Opalewski179.4Hart
201411Trevor VanderKodde179.4Hart
201512Owen VanderVlucht178.2Hart
201611Azrael Horvath177.9Manton
201711Grant Ackley173.6Hart
201812Oliver Graetz173.5Benzie Central
201910Liam Plainte173.3Houghton Lake
202011Parker Weirich170.6Shelby
202112Braydn Winkel168.2McBain
202212Jackson Poll164.6Mason County Central
202312Dean McKellar161.2Maple City Glen Lake
202410Brycen Brown161.1Shelby
202511Walter Armstrong158.9Benzie Central
202611Owen Peterson152.3Manton
202710Max Wassa152.3Maple City Glen Lake
20289Eagon Chandler149.9Benzie Central
202911Noah Holden149.0Mason County Central
20309Keith Kaczmarek148.8Manistee
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
21110Wesley Mair190.7Montague
21212Owen Sytsema184.3Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
21311Nolan Kessler183.3Montague
21410Aiden Willett181.5Lakeview
21512Landon Madden179.8Delton-Kellogg
21612David Castrejon179.7Newaygo
21712Barrett Nance177.4North Muskegon
21812Evan Buteyn176.8Grandville Calvin Christian
21911Mason Lincoln173.6Lakeview
211012Josiah Scholma171.2Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
211112Eli Morse171.1Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
211212Levi Schimmel170.6Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
211311Sam Hwang170.6Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
211412Cooper Tiffany166.6Lakeview
211512Micah Kuiper165.2Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
211612Daniel Erdmann165.1The Potter’s House
211712Job Moore164.2The Potter’s House
211812Mattias Tuls162.0The Potter’s House
211910Malachi Allersma161.1Delton-Kellogg
212010Mason Bollinger159.6Stanton Central Montcalm
212111Caleb Glass158.8Grandville Calvin Christian
212212Landon Kuperus158.5Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
212311Jace Hilton157.6Delton-Kellogg
212411Joseph McCoy157.5Delton-Kellogg
21259Asher Koops155.5Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
212612Caleb Swiney154.2The Potter’s House
212710Micah Scholma149.9Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
212812Liam Heyboer144.6Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
212910Emmett Elsner144.5Kent City
21309Gage Westgate143.6Morley-Stanwood
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
22110Mason Rogers200.1Three Oaks River Valley
22212Jonas Ballard194.0Holland Black River
22311Jackson Bowman193.6Saugatuck
22412Sawyer Monroe193.0Saugatuck
22512Grant Rehkopf190.6Saugatuck
22612Marcus Silva182.1Saugatuck
22710Reese DeVisser180.2Schoolcraft
22812Ivan “Gabe” Gonzalez173.0Fennville
22910Leo Avalos172.5Saugatuck
221012Sebastian Zylstra172.1Holland Black River
221112John Keser172.0Buchanan
221210Sam Casiano172.0Watervliet
221311Avery Carlson170.1Holland Black River
221412Ivan Gabe Gonzalez169.5Fennville
221511Josiah Passig166.7Buchanan
221611Casper Banner165.4Holland Black River
221711Michael Cleary165.2Three Oaks River Valley
221810Simon Carr163.2Saugatuck
221911Aaron Hofmeister160.8Constantine
222010Bentley Molitor159.6Buchanan
222112Atticus Boeve158.9Fennville
222211Ira Brown154.8Saugatuck
22239Isaac Mulder154.6Schoolcraft
222412Jessie Bernard150.9Fennville
222511Carter Brouwer150.4Bangor
222611Leo Lemieux149.7Three Oaks River Valley
222711Daren Austin148.0Parchment
222812Connor Bailey-Cook148.0Parchment
222912Noah Withers142.5Lawton
223011Joseph Edwards142.1Three Oaks River Valley
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
23112Cooper Flick211.4Hanover-Horton
23212Logan Youngman208.6Hillsdale
23311Will Hulin203.9Centreville
23412Chad Tyson202.2Hanover-Horton
23512Caleb Blonde200.1Jonesville
23611Soren Crosthwaite197.6Jackson Lumen Christi
23710Max Reed191.1Centreville
23812Rocky Bolton190.6Jackson Lumen Christi
2399Nick Overweg188.7Centreville
231012Collin Fucile187.9Jonesville
231111Wyatt Hassenzahl187.9Hanover-Horton
231212Avery Morrow187.1Jackson Lumen Christi
231311Anderson Cook182.1Hanover-Horton
231411Tyler Harris181.0Hanover-Horton
231511Ashton Potwin180.0Jonesville
231610Bryce Youngman179.0Hillsdale
231711Hunter Walker177.9Quincy
231810Briggs Baker177.6Jonesville
231911Channing Rougeau173.5Jonesville
232012Cullen Decker170.9Union City
232111Carson Beach170.4Hanover-Horton
232210Blake Aube167.9Hudson
232310Will Swanwick167.4Centreville
232411Blake Fish165.9Napoleon
232512Brayton Cosby164.5Bronson
232612Wilson Sheldon162.6Jackson Lumen Christi
232712Landen Gessner160.0Olivet
232812Ethan Huff159.4Homer
232911Carter Feltner159.1Quincy
233011Jacob Gray158.2Jonesville
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
24111Owen Poppema202.2Bath
24212Evan MacLaren195.8Ithaca
24312John Kowatch192.6Pewamo-Westphalia
24411Eli Hobson181.4Montrose
24512Jaxon Hemgesberg180.2Chesaning
24612Charlie George178.5Pewamo-Westphalia
24712Wyatt Werner176.1Pewamo-Westphalia
24810Dutch Smith175.5Ithaca
24911Logan Gregory165.5Saranac
241011Christopher Shemes165.1Ithaca
24119Jace Devereaux164.9Laingsburg
241211Michael Allen164.3Montrose
241311Brady Oosterhouse164.1Saranac
24149Krue Short163.0Belding
241512Nolan Mitchell163.0Pewamo-Westphalia
241611Logan Ingraham162.3Belding
241711Austin Hodges159.0Laingsburg
24189Jaxson Scheid158.2Belding
24199Graysen Crimi155.6Montrose
242010Joel Oosterhouse154.5Saranac
24219Tyler Hopkins152.8Belding
242211Rylan Huyck151.2Ithaca
242310Daniel Kramer150.3Pewamo-Westphalia
24249Lucas Demeter148.6New Lothrop
242511Jameson Huhn146.7Pewamo-Westphalia
242611Colin Johnson146.0Bath
24279Aidan Jorae143.7Ithaca
242811Collin Riley141.2Bath
242910Weston LePard140.8Ithaca
243011Mario Baker140.5Bath
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
25112Luke Herron212.5Caro
25210Asher Putman197.5Reese
25311Brendan Plante184.6Midland Bullock Creek
25412Myles Robinson179.0Gladwin
25511Remyngton Clish177.9Sanford-Meridian
25612Evan Olson177.8Pigeon-Laker
25711Gabe Piach177.6Gladwin
25812Owen Wruble177.0Harbor Beach
25910Jacob Daisy176.9Caro
25109Ivan Christensen174.5Gladwin
251111Wyatt Roberts166.3Otisville LakeVille
251210Silas Finney162.5Beaverton
251312Mayson McIntosh162.1Caro
25149Elliott Daisy161.4Caro
251510Jackson Ransford161.4Caro
251611Luke Mulder161.0Midland Bullock Creek
251710Gunnar Long160.6Sandusky
251810Zeke Rickwalt159.0Caro
251911Maksim Kohl159.0Unionville-Sebewaing
25209Thatcher Hodges158.9Hemlock
252112Henry Haag158.0Pigeon-Laker
252212Jeffery Sisson157.2Gladwin
252312Mason LaVigne155.2Hemlock
252412Sebastian Seifferlein154.6Sandusky
252512Grady Galbraith154.4Hemlock
252611Grayson Wells153.4Midland Bullock Creek
252711Xavier Teneyuque152.7Carrollton
252812Dillon Spilker151.8Sanford-Meridian
252912Aiden Harrison151.0Gladwin
25309Pierce Lakatos150.2Sanford-Meridian
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
26111Nole Lorenzen211.7Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
26212Owen Windgaston195.9Clawson
26312Everett Beach192.7Lansing Catholic
26412William Gancer191.7Stockbridge
26512Téo Krumm189.4Lansing Catholic
2669Coen Lorenzen186.3Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
26712James Tennes184.4Lansing Catholic
26811Grady Richey182.7Lansing Catholic
26911Landon Shimkus178.6Charyl Stockwell Academy
261012Hayden Selesky176.6Lansing Catholic
261111Jack Songer175.9Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
261212Kenneth Mangles175.9Leslie
261312Finn Korte173.3Lansing Catholic
261412Elijah Killinger171.9Charyl Stockwell Academy
261512Matthew Killeen170.1Leslie
261611Carson Potter164.7Lansing Catholic
261711James Valovick162.5Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
261811Doug Grishkevich161.5New Haven
261912Cooper Schmelter158.3Leslie
262012Colton Grzyb153.7Almont
262112Benjamin Kline153.3Almont
262210Jonathan Larkins143.4Leslie
262310Jacksen Heffner138.9Charyl Stockwell Academy
262410Jadon Russell138.7Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
262510Owen Peckham137.8Stockbridge
262611Gideon Schneider137.7Clawson
262711Ryan Beauchamp133.8New Haven
262812Preston Varnauskas132.4Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
262911Jake Cavins130.1New Haven
263012Jamin Siewert129.3Almont
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
27111Christian Craanen205.2Monroe St. Mary CC
27210Isaac Cox197.8Plymouth Christian Academy
27312Naveen Kulkarni193.6Ann Arbor Greenhills
27411Noah Sills191.1Blissfield
27511Michael Weidmayer191.0Blissfield
27610Henry Cooper183.5Ann Arbor Greenhills
27711Simon Reed183.3Plymouth Christian Academy
27810Haiden Bennett175.8Clinton
27912Connor Boteler172.8Grass Lake
271010Cameron Jordan164.5Blissfield
271111Phineas Totten164.4Monroe St. Mary CC
271211Caleb Healey164.3Erie Mason
271312Porter Ravary163.1Erie Mason
271411Jarel Adams162.9Plymouth Christian Academy
27159Cooper Flohr162.6Ann Arbor Greenhills
271610Grant Rasor160.6Ottawa Lake-Whiteford
271712Kaleb Stutzman160.2Blissfield
271812Roger Mariani160.1Ann Arbor Greenhills
271910Bryson Pooley160.0Blissfield
272011Thomas Wickenheiser155.9Monroe St. Mary CC
272111Brady Bills155.7Blissfield
272211Beckett Klump155.0Blissfield
272311Weston Albright154.2Erie Mason
272412David Mills150.9Erie Mason
272512Nicklas Holmes149.9Onsted
27269Elliott Taylor148.0Ann Arbor Greenhills
27279Brennan Chiotti147.7Ottawa Lake-Whiteford
27289Owen Claus143.5Clinton
272910Alex Hunt142.6Onsted
273010Nate Kubiak142.1Ann Arbor Greenhills

Any Surprises?

Harbor Beach

Back last fall, the Pirates were 4th in their region here at Wagener Park, so is it really a shocker they’re in the running to qualify in 2026? Yeah, if they’d stuck in D4. Faced with a tougher situation, the HB girls have responded in a major way. Alexa Robbins has run 1.5 min. faster than ever before, Esther Bulgrien just found her way into the 20’s for the first time ever, and Cailin Spearman can’t stop running in the 20:30’s. Not to mention the freshman addition of Juliet Siemen, who appears to be one of the better 9th graders in D3.

Holland Black River

Black River was thought to be a solid outfit with some good depth. And they’ve largely been that, but benefitting from the major improvement of Esther Edgington. She’s been a runner that has always spun her best material at regional time, often dropping significant time in her final race of the year. This fall, instead of running 22/23 min. races through the middle of the season, she’s been busting out some 21-min. efforts too. A late season jump could have a very positive impact for Black River.  

RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
191Traverse City St. Francis352115.7
192Lake City485111.3
193Harbor Springs1082477.8
194Charlevoix1282770.4
195Grayling14860.7
196Boyne City15754.3
197Roscommon16361.6
198Kalkaska16556.7
199Elk Rapids26312.4
1910Cheboygan2786.0
1911Tawas2941.4
1912Mancelona358-49.3
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
201Benzie Central608109.4
202Maple City Glen Lake911493.4
203Hart911394.9
204McBain941597.8
205Leroy Pine River13276.0
206Mason County Central16863.6
207Manton17251.4
208Shelby19739.5
209Kingsley20247.5
2010Manistee236-13.8
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
211Grand Rapids Covenant Christian303110.5
212Kent City429106.7
213Grandville Calvin Christian872576.3
214Muskegon Western Michigan Christian10170.8
215Newaygo16735.9
216Delton-Kellogg18032.0
217Lakeview20710.9
218The Potter’s House20916.2
219Montague258-20.8
2110Ravenna273-52.5
2111North Muskegon293-60.8
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
221Saugatuck234112.0
222Schoolcraft10167.4
223Holland Black River12161.0
224Watervliet12258.7
225Constantine17348.0
226Three Oaks River Valley18143.7
227Fennville18251.3
228Buchanan18344.3
229Bloomingdale22333.5
2210Niles Brandywine2337.9
2211Hartford26124.5
2212Kalamazoo Christian26722.4
2213Bangor362-21.1
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
231Jackson Lumen Christi367109.8
232Olivet7716100.5
233Jonesville952377.9
234Napoleon14761.8
235Hanover-Horton14766.9
236Bronson17348.8
237Centreville18747.7
238Quincy19344.6
239Union City25115.8
2310Hudson2612.2
2311Homer295-13.6
2312Galesburg-Augusta317-27.3
2313Springport320-36.8
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
241Pewamo-Westphalia386112.0
242Ithaca4710103.6
243Chesaning841990.4
244Belding15062.7
245Bath16457.0
246Saranac16960.4
247Montrose18448.6
248Laingsburg18550.9
249New Lothrop20647.7
2410St. Louis21343.5
2411Perry30513.9
2412Ovid-Elsie339-10.9
2413Mt Morris402-226.2
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
251Sanford-Meridian771789.7
252Harbor Beach791887.4
253Midland Bullock Creek962181.8
254Saginaw Valley Lutheran972282.8
255Caro992090.1
256Gladwin15363.1
257Millington16738.3
258Pigeon-Laker21742.2
259Sandusky2384.4
2510Reese24333.2
2511Hemlock25726.9
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
261Lansing Catholic181124.9
262Leslie571196.0
263Rochester Hills Lutheran NW842680.1
264Stockbridge13543.7
265Algonac15035.3
266Marine City15230.5
267Almont17820.5
268Charyl Stockwell Academy222-3.2
269Madison Heights Bishop Foley231-9.4
2610New Haven233-81.2
2611Clawson284-40.9
RegionProj. PlaceTeamReg. ScoreRankTop-5 Avg.
271Blissfield311295.1
272Grass Lake8968.8
273Ann Arbor Greenhills12356.2
274Clinton12852.6
275Plymouth Christian Academy15130.9
276Erie Mason15739.6
277Monroe St. Mary CC16244.2
278Onsted17235.6
279Ottawa Lake-Whiteford17534.4
2710Adrian Madison21320.7

Battes to Watch

Region 20

A region thought to be close-knit and tight has gotten even more wound up. Summer projections had four teams separated by a 15-point gap. The difference between 1st and 4th in these projections has gotten larger, mainly thanks to Benzie Central having nice bounce-back season thus far. Though beyond the Huskies, this could be a crazy one, with Maple City Glen Lake, Hart, and McBain all detached by 3 projected points.

Looming large in the case of a tie or displacing other scorers could be a teams 6th or 7th runners. Right now, it’s appearing that Glen Lake has the strongest of the bunch, with their top-7 in the low-22’s or faster. In this highly-competitive Up North region, needing to only score four could play a role, with Caelyn Torry embracing her front-running ways. We can also point to head-to-head matchups. One occurred just recently in the final varsity race of the day at Shepherd, Hart placing 2nd in the Gold division, 4 points clear of McBain. Through four girls, the two teams were tied, but the Pirates’ Emma Miller sealed the runner-up finish for the red n’ black.

Region 25

Peering back at last fall’s mid-season projections, this was an absurd one. Peering back at last fall’s regional odds, it was still wild, six teams with a >15% chance of advancing. I’m sorry to report that it seems that only five teams are in the running this time around. Although I haven’t cooked up any simulations, I can tell you that 3rd through 5th place are disconnected by a mere three points.

Thankfully for a bit of clarity, we did get a tiny preview of sorts from this past weekend’s Wagener Park Invite. Placing three girls in the top-11, Harbor Beach was able to pull off the win in the varsity race. Midland Bullock Creek was 3rd, a few points clear of Caro (although some of the Tigers didn’t race to the standard that they’ve shown in 2026).

RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
19110Alaina Civinskas147.6Roscommon
1929Isadora Shaw140.3Lake City
1939Maggie Mohrhardt126.9Traverse City St. Francis
1949Aubrey Doan117.1Lake City
19512Molly Kate Hollandsworth115.4Traverse City St. Francis
19611Emma Kerr114.7Traverse City St. Francis
1979Hannah Muladore113.9Charlevoix
19812Stefi Reskevics113.3Harbor Springs
19910Ellery Kemner112.5Traverse City St. Francis
191011Elise Renkiewicz112.3Lake City
191112Nico Triebold111.7Grayling
19129Kate Rowe109.1Traverse City St. Francis
191311Faith Helsel98.7Lake City
191411Aaliyah Hillier93.5Kalkaska
191510Ruby Rhein92.4Traverse City St. Francis
191610Isabella Wegener91.1Kalkaska
191712Emily Dunphy89.3Traverse City St. Francis
19189Reese Woodham88.8Harbor Springs
191911Harlow Hughes88.2Lake City
192012Laura Janisse83.2Roscommon
192110Chelsea Philp83.1Charlevoix
192211Gabi Rempe78.0Harbor Springs
19239Ruby Okma75.1Elk Rapids
192410Allison Kujawski69.5Boyne City
192511Hailee Bertels67.5Boyne City
19269Ainsley Wiers64.2Charlevoix
192712Allyson Albert58.7Grayling
192810Taya Price-Thatcher57.7Harbor Springs
19299Everly Pearson56.5Boyne City
193012Addy Wiers56.3Charlevoix
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
20111Caelyn Torry148.2McBain
20211Madisyn Wanstead135.9Leroy Pine River
20311Avery Kelly135.5Benzie Central
2049Merrick Tacktor131.5Mason County Central
20511Maggie McClellan127.8Benzie Central
20612Natalie Rosema120.6Hart
20710Lily Sisson115.7Leroy Pine River
2089Avyrie Ottenbacher114.5Maple City Glen Lake
20912Betsy Gooden114.0Manton
201011Hattie Driver104.3Manistee
201111Brianna Patrick101.8Manton
201210Alyse Cox101.2Maple City Glen Lake
201310Kristina Bott100.8Benzie Central
201411Kaitlyn Kaple100.1Benzie Central
201511Alaina Schaner99.5Hart
20169Bella Young99.0Harrison
201711Avalynne Allee95.7Leroy Pine River
201812Madelyn Reinink94.8McBain
201912Noel Parker92.9Shelby
202011Luisa Vander Zwaag90.7Hart
202110Mya Bronkema90.0McBain
202210Autumn Bailey87.3Maple City Glen Lake
202311Monroe Miles86.4Maple City Glen Lake
202412Lydia Soelberg83.5Shelby
202510Emma Miller83.5Hart
202610Sadee Wenkel82.8Benzie Central
202710Grace Wilson82.1McBain
202811Bryn Riley80.0Hart
202910Ellie Wright77.6Maple City Glen Lake
203011Alayna Ottenbacher76.6Maple City Glen Lake
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
21111Elliana Max140.4Kent City
21212Shelby Kuiper122.3Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21312Leah Sneller119.0Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
21411Shelby Zimmer115.8Kent City
21512Anna DeVries112.4Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21610Kate DeVries109.3Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21712Lydia Minderhoud107.5Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21812Faith Jenkins104.2Grandville Calvin Christian
21910Joselyn Vogel103.2Kent City
211011Abbie Koole101.0Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
211112Kamryn Salladay97.3Lakeview
211211Joellah Bouwman90.2Grandville Calvin Christian
211310Bayla Curtis88.2Kent City
211410Leah Elzinga88.0Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21159Kelsey Elsner85.7Kent City
211612Laura Castrejon84.4Newaygo
21179Taylor Dornbos77.7Grandville Calvin Christian
211811Lynnae Meengs77.5Grandville Calvin Christian
211910Sonya Minderhoud75.4Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
212010Kyla Zuidema73.0Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
21219Adelita Tobias72.2Vermontville Maple Valley
212212Rochelle Liu71.1Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
212311Ellason Foster67.3Newaygo
21249Audra Niemi64.3Kent City
212510Josephine Baker63.0The Potter’s House
212610Brooke Scheidel62.8Kent City
212710Peyten Hansen61.1Stanton Central Montcalm
21289Raegan Jones57.0Vermontville Maple Valley
21299Olivia Gonzalez56.6Delton-Kellogg
213012Riley Perley55.7Delton-Kellogg
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
22112Kamryn Sixberry122.9Saugatuck
22212Isabelle Sliter122.4Fennville
22310Ellyse Heyser121.6Saugatuck
22412Lyvia Curtis121.0Saugatuck
2259Elina Guffy114.1Saugatuck
22611Olivia Bays92.8Schoolcraft
22710Janet Andrade85.7Bloomingdale
2289Lucy Wheeler82.5Schoolcraft
22910Daniella Romero80.5Watervliet
221010Ryann Monroe80.4Saugatuck
221110Allison Burns77.2Constantine
221211Esther Edgington76.2Holland Black River
221311Alison Murray75.0Niles Brandywine
22149Hannah McCorry74.5Lawton
221511Naomi Telman73.2Holland Black River
221610Anna Davidhizar71.9Constantine
221712Abigail Mulder69.7Schoolcraft
221812Harper Bowman68.1Three Oaks River Valley
221910Tala Carlin65.6Buchanan
222011Miranda Lowell65.1Watervliet
222110Mary Zinck65.1Holland Black River
22229Elizabeth Cernugel63.1Saugatuck
22239Kayla Barkalow62.0Schoolcraft
222410Laila Wogatzke60.1Niles Brandywine
222512Helen Donner59.3Three Oaks River Valley
222612Anika Weurding58.5Lawton
22279Elizabeth McGowan58.2Saugatuck
222811Sydney Roeder56.6Niles Brandywine
222910Kaylani Hernandez55.4Fennville
223012Ella Hendrixson52.8Three Oaks River Valley
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
23111Tiya Feldpausch149.5Olivet
23212Samantha Schroeder145.8Jackson Lumen Christi
23311Maisey Toteff136.1Hanover-Horton
23410Lily Britton135.6Olivet
23510Avery Haynes110.8Brooklyn Columbia Central
23610Madelynn Patterson109.5Olivet
2379Lilly Kimble108.8Jackson Lumen Christi
23810Mila Scheele103.6Jackson Lumen Christi
23912Brynlee Swihart100.9Hanover-Horton
231012Alonna Goodsell96.8Bronson
231110Ella Worthing96.5Jackson Lumen Christi
231211Sophia Trachsel94.1Jackson Lumen Christi
231312Kendahl Drake92.1Jonesville
23149Rhylee McNair90.6Jonesville
23159Maisen Schaedler88.1Hudson
231611Addison Johnson88.0Centreville
231712Kendyl Musielewicz87.1Quincy
23189Ayva Berkeypile84.5Napoleon
23199Marie Swager83.3Jackson Lumen Christi
232012Miriam Sanchez80.5Bronson
232112Helen Lefere76.2Jackson Lumen Christi
23229Savannah Nye72.8Jonesville
232311Madisyn Lindemann71.8Napoleon
232412Keira Knight68.1Jonesville
232510Piper Grigsby66.5Bronson
23269Molly Johnson66.3Homer
232711Brynleigh Griffiths66.1Jonesville
232810Sophia Morgan64.2Jonesville
23299Lauren Tappenden64.2Quincy
23309Emily Falkenstein63.1Centreville
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
24112Alyssa Kramer143.5Pewamo-Westphalia
2429Grace Jordan131.9Chesaning
24310Calista George126.1Pewamo-Westphalia
24412Makinna Foglesong123.2Ithaca
24510Katherine Schafer112.2Pewamo-Westphalia
2469Lucy Shemes108.5Ithaca
24710Sydney Knieper107.3New Lothrop
2489Abigail Jordan106.3Chesaning
24911Khloe Lehnst104.3Ithaca
241011Takoda Holicki98.9Montrose
241111Esther Cahill98.5Saranac
24129Tilly Bowen95.7Ithaca
241311Halli VanDyken92.1Belding
241411Adelyn Thelen90.5Pewamo-Westphalia
241512Charlotte Simon87.8Pewamo-Westphalia
241611Amelia Dawe86.4Ithaca
241711Ruby Gross86.3Chesaning
24189Nora Huhn78.0Pewamo-Westphalia
241912Delaney Smith74.8Pewamo-Westphalia
242011Courtney Lawhorne73.8Bath
242110Emily Eubank73.4Belding
242210Teagan Kuykendall71.8Bath
242311Leah Theile71.3Chesaning
24249Sophia Brandt64.8Montrose
242512Samantha Gutzman64.1Laingsburg
242611Haylee Gladstone63.4Bath
242710Lexi Kinder63.3St. Louis
242810Madison Lemert62.7St. Louis
242912Payge Woodworth62.4Laingsburg
243011KiKi Rusz59.7Laingsburg
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
25112Violet Tetil148.5Caro
25212Mikenna Nagel125.3Sanford-Meridian
25311Lindsey Cmeyla117.4Saginaw Valley Lutheran
2549Juliet Siemen110.1Harbor Beach
25511Alyvia Janke109.0Unionville-Sebewaing
25610Jocelyn Tetil107.1Caro
25712Cailin Spearman106.2Harbor Beach
25812Emily Beethe105.7Saginaw Valley Lutheran
25911Sarah Nothstine103.2Midland Bullock Creek
251010Sage Palmer101.7Sandusky
25119Reagan Shadley97.2Cass City
251210Rebekah Huber97.1Midland Bullock Creek
251312Ellie Beach95.1Sanford-Meridian
251411Esther Bulgrien93.2Harbor Beach
251510Claire Burrows92.9Millington
251611Averie Stefanovsky92.4Caro
251710Brynn Burrows89.7Millington
251811Olivia Brown88.4Bad Axe
251911Bethany Cmeyla86.9Saginaw Valley Lutheran
252012Rachael Heikkinen83.7Saginaw Valley Lutheran
252111Vivian O’Callaghan83.3Gladwin
252210Sophi Beach79.0Sanford-Meridian
252312Adeline Ludwig76.5Midland Bullock Creek
25249Eden Beldyga76.5Midland Bullock Creek
252512Bayleigh Finney75.8Sanford-Meridian
25269Sophia Fischer73.3Sanford-Meridian
252711Lydia Popp71.5Pigeon-Laker
252810Rachel Becker69.8Unionville-Sebewaing
252912Haley Fitzgibbon69.0Sanford-Meridian
253010Arliena Grant67.3Gladwin
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
26111Josie Bishop142.3Lansing Catholic
26210Anna Drauer136.3Lansing Catholic
26311Piper Lyon133.8Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
26411Lindsey Ludwig128.6Lansing Catholic
2659Annie Lloyd109.6Lansing Catholic
26611Isabelle Currie107.6Lansing Catholic
26712Emma Reimer106.5New Haven
2689Abby Creisher106.2Leslie
2699Abigail Creisher103.5Leslie
261011Margaret Guerra-Harrison102.3Leslie
261110Kadence Ager97.3Algonac
26129Caleigh Gardner96.3Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
261310Elsa Korte92.3Lansing Catholic
261411Leah Flannery84.4Leslie
261512Avery Miller83.7Lansing Catholic
261611Madisyn Hunter83.3Leslie
261710Jessica LeFeve77.0Charyl Stockwell Academy
261811Taylor Stanczak73.3Almont
261910Kiersten Craigo73.0Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
262010Jordan Traylor65.7Mt. Clemens
26219Summer Knowles64.5Marine City
262210Lucy Chapman64.1Stockbridge
262312Ava Troxel61.3Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
262411Sophia Carson56.9University Liggett
26259Isabella Pratt53.2Stockbridge
262612Emily Satkowiak49.4Stockbridge
26279Josie Atkins46.5Marine City
262811Aliyah Numinen45.8Stockbridge
262910Sophia Walker41.8Algonac
263010Abby McCarthy39.4Wixom St. Catherine
RegionProj. PlaceGradeNameO4 RatingTeam
27112Anna Hallett116.1Blissfield
27210Anamaria Brazdau110.3Plymouth Christian Academy
2739Ellie Sills103.7Blissfield
2749Avery Jones98.4Grass Lake
27511Ella Claus94.1Clinton
27612Kaleea Braun93.8Blissfield
2779Stylar Ross86.1Onsted
27811Adalyn Jarchow83.7Grass Lake
27910Mollie Yeager83.5Blissfield
271012Libby Schuster80.1Ann Arbor Greenhills
271112Peyton Marshall80.0Plymouth Christian Academy
27129Rose Moreno78.5Blissfield
271311Revan Ricker74.3Blissfield
271412Tanylei Neff73.9Erie Mason
271512Braelynn Chiotti73.7Ottawa Lake-Whiteford
271610Josslyn Handy70.9Clinton
271712Juleigh Husby70.2Monroe St. Mary CC
271812Shiaire Little69.6Dearborn Heights Robichaud
271911Jaelynn Horton68.1Erie Mason
272011Breslin Wing65.6Ottawa Lake-Whiteford
27219Eden Bloom65.5Plymouth Christian Academy
27229Katelynn Wellday65.1Clinton
272312Nina Malani63.6Ann Arbor Greenhills
272412Adeline Stormont58.6Grass Lake
272512Makenzie Hilberer56.5Grass Lake
27269Madeline Kolbe55.0Erie Mason
272710Alice Zhu50.9Ann Arbor Greenhills
272812Izabel Raglow49.4Onsted
272911Makayla Markgraff47.3Monroe St. Mary CC
273012Alexis Velasquez47.0Adrian Madison