2026 Regional Projections: Division Two

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Last year at both the regional and state level, these projections were as predictive and accurate as ever. Through totaling up all the odds of the top-3 teams, I anticipated 193 of the qualifiers would be correct come regional day. The projections bested that by one team, 194 correct qualifiers. Similar results came from the State Finals.

A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race in October. This will attempt to account for injuries. There are also a few cases where I know a runner won’t be running the rest of the season.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

Boys

#8 Petoskey
#23 Spring Lake

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Petoskey	46	95+	95+	1st
2	Spring Lake	103		95+	2 to 3
3	Fremont	124		94	2 to 4
4	Whitehall	156			3 to 7
5	Reed City	162			4 to 7
6	Cadillac	196			4 to 10
7	Gaylord	198			5 to 11
8	Big Rapids	209			6 to 11
9	Ludington	223			4 to 13
10	Howard City Tri-County	223			6 to 12
11	Fruitport	228			8 to 12
12	Clare	248			7 to 13
13	Muskegon Oakridge	254			7 to 13
14	Ogemaw Heights	428			14 to 15
15	Remus Chippewa Hills	436			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	3.4
3	12	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	4.9
4	12	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	5.3
5	11	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	5.5
6	12	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	5.7
7	12	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	6.9
8	12	Garrett Lansing	Petoskey	8.9
9	10	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	9.5
10	11	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	12.3
11	12	Carson Brey	Petoskey	12.4
12	11	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	14.1
13	12	Ryder Woodwyk	Spring Lake	15.4
14	11	Tate Smith	Fremont	15.4
15	10	Owen Young	Petoskey	15.7
16	12	Griffin Frentz	Petoskey	16.8
17	12	Mossen Green	Fremont	18.2
18	10	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	21.0
19	11	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	21.4
20	10	Noah Strother	Gaylord	22.0
21	12	Jayden Mueller	Muskegon Oakridge	22.5
22	9	Conrad Schwass	Ludington	22.9
23	11	Dylan Winskas	Fruitport	25.2
24	11	Isaac Vandlen	Spring Lake	28.3
25	11	Max Taylor	Fremont	28.5
26	11	Jacob Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
27	10	David Strother	Gaylord	31.3
28	12	Tyler Schuster	Howard City Tri-County	31.6
29	12	Connor Schmidt	Clare	31.7
30	11	Fhoenix Stellard	Spring Lake	32.1

Girls

#13 Spring Lake
#20 Remus Chippewa Hills
#23 Clare
#25 Cadillac

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Spring Lake	78	78	95+	1 to 3
2	Remus Chippewa Hills	98	10	93	1 to 4
3	Clare	101	11	87	1 to 5
4	Cadillac	125		18	2 to 7
5	Ludington	146			4 to 8
6	Gaylord	155			5 to 8
7	Fruitport	156			4 to 8
8	Reed City	183			5 to 9
9	Petoskey	212			8 to 11
10	Whitehall	235			8 to 11
11	Fremont	236			8 to 11
12	Big Rapids	309			12th
13	Howard City Tri-County	396			13 to 14
14	Muskegon Oakridge	411			13 to 15
15	Ogemaw Heights	427			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	1.7
2	12	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	2.3
3	9	Evelyn Goosen	Spring Lake	2.9
4	12	Zoe German	Fruitport	4.8
5	11	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	6.5
6	11	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	7.0
7	12	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	9.4
8	9	Cecelia Merrick	Gaylord	9.6
9	12	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	12.5
10	12	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	13.9
11	9	Abigail Cooper	Spring Lake	13.9
12	12	Hallee Hervey	Reed City	15.4
13	9	Quinn Killian	Remus Chippewa Hills	15.8
14	9	Quinn Drake	Clare	17.9
15	11	Emma Stotzel	Clare	19.9
16	10	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	21.0
17	9	Addison Dekker	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.1
18	12	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	22.9
19	10	Hazel Cherney	Spring Lake	23.5
20	10	Conley Howard	Remus Chippewa Hills	23.7
21	11	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	24.0
22	12	Lauren Leis	Clare	24.2
23	9	Brooklyn Kramer	Gaylord	24.5
24	12	Kira Manchip	Fremont	24.8
25	10	Myah Breuker	Fremont	26.5
26	9	Carlie Battle	Reed City	27.6
27	10	Aya Pateman	Petoskey	27.8
28	12	Gabrielle Chevez	Whitehall	28.9
29	10	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	29.4
30	10	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	29.5

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The Dutch looking to spring an upset on either side. They have fighters chances in each, perhaps moreso in the girls race.

After all, Holland has an 11^th-ranked girls squad. The strength of the Dutch lies in their blend of strength up front and numbers behind. Even missing Johanna Mulder for much of the fall, Holland has been able to find five other girls that’ve been sub-21. One of those is Olivia Weiss, who will definitely mix it up at the front of this race. It’ll be tough, as this may be the toughest girls region of any division. Holland Christian is the defending champ with no let up, Coopersville just won the RCA with Allendale right on their tail. Whomever makes it out will surely deserve it.

The boys have slightly lower odds, but have an easier road in terms of competition. Holland Christian’s boys are ranked #1, but beyond the Maroons, only Cedar Springs comes in as a ranked squad. To advance, the Dutch will need to turn in a performance similar to Portage, where Holland was able to place three boys in the low-17’s or faster, then back it up with two in the 18’s. That led Holland to a 17^th place finish, 21 points behind Grand Rapids Catholic Central. In a smaller field, perhaps the strength of the three lower sticks would be magnified.

Boys

#1 Holland Christian
#24 Cedar Springs

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	25	95+	95+	1st
2	Cedar Springs	99		95+	2 to 3
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	113		66	2 to 5
4	Holland	123		25	2 to 6
5	Coopersville	136		6	3 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	144			3 to 7
7	Allendale	166			6 to 7
8	Sparta	204			8 to 9
9	South Haven	238			8 to 9
10	Allegan	274			10 to 11
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	304			10 to 11
12	Hamilton	343			12th
13	Wyoming Lee	408			13 to 14
14	Comstock Park	410			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	10	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	3.0
3	9	Drew Franken	Holland Christian	3.7
4	12	Mason Hill	Allendale	4.8
5	10	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	5.0
6	12	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	6.2
7	10	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	7.3
8	11	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
9	12	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	9.1
10	12	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	11.3
11	12	Rylan VanDenBeldt	Holland Christian	13.1
12	11	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	14.5
13	12	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	15.1
14	10	James Elliott	Cedar Springs	15.9
15	11	Caelen Gray	Holland	16.7
16	11	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	17.0
17	11	Derek Bostrom	Holland Christian	17.5
18	12	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	18.1
19	10	Brycen Stewart	Allendale	19.3
20	9	Jack Schulte	Holland	19.6
21	11	Zane Molewyk	Coopersville	22.0
22	10	Cameron Howe	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	23.2
23	12	Nolan Wiens	South Haven	23.8
24	9	Nolan Richardson	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	24.2
25	12	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	24.3
26	10	Leo Alivia	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	27.2
27	9	Hayden Woodwyk	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.3
28	10	Eli Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.9
29	12	Tristan See	Cedar Springs	28.2
30	11	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	29.6

Girls

#1 Holland Christian
#9 Coopersville
#10 Allendale
#11 Holland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	33	95+	95+	1st
2	Coopersville	84		94	2 to 4
3	Allendale	95		63	2 to 4
4	Holland	97		43	2 to 4
5	Cedar Springs	136			5 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	164			5 to 7
7	Sparta	167			6 to 7
8	Grand Rapids West Catholic	240			8 to 10
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	247			8 to 11
10	Hamilton	279			9 to 11
11	South Haven	288			9 to 11
12	Comstock Park	373			12 to 13
13	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	373			12 to 14
14	Wyoming Lee	409			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.1
2	11	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	2.7
3	10	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	3.3
4	12	Mia May	Sparta	3.5
5	12	Olivia Weiss	Holland	5.5
6	12	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	6.2
7	12	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	9	Molly White	Holland Christian	8.7
9	12	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	9.6
10	9	Anna Zietlow	Holland Christian	11.1
11	9	Molly Murphy	Holland	12.0
12	12	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.7
13	10	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	13.2
14	11	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	14.0
15	10	Mia Hill	Allendale	14.9
16	11	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	15.4
17	10	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	18.5
18	10	Lauren Meyer	Allendale	19.2
19	12	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	19.5
20	12	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.8
21	12	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	9	Keira Garza	Grand Rapids West Catholic	23.8
23	11	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	24.2
24	12	Kylee Brose	Allendale	24.3
25	9	Halle Valliere	Cedar Springs	24.5
26	11	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	28.1
27	11	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.5
28	12	Lydia Nelson	Hamilton	29.9
29	12	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	31.7
30	10	Katelyn Ashworth	Allendale	31.9

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Not particularly in terms of qualifiers, as usual Region 12 is comprised of extremely strong traditional powers such as East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and Grand Rapids South Christian. These folks should dominate as usual (I feel for you, Thornapple-Kellogg girls, perhaps the MHSAA can move you to Region 13 next year?).

There might be some drama as to who will be the winner in the girls race. Grand Rapids Christian has been on a roll lately, seemingly putting every girl in their roster into the 19’s in recent weeks. But South Christian has been known to rally for an upset here, as they did last fall. The Sailors certainly made a run at the Eagles back in early October at Otsego, hanging with GRC through four girls, but faltering to the Eagle depth. Whatever goes down, three teams capable of placing in the top-10 at MIS will likely advance.

Boys

#3 East Grand Rapids
#10 Grand Rapids Christian
#17 Forest Hills Eastern

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	East Grand Rapids	42	95+	95+	1st
2	Grand Rapids Christian	67		95+	2 to 3
3	Forest Hills Eastern	82		95+	2 to 3
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	125			4 to 5
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	147			4 to 5
6	GR West Michigan Aviation	196			6 to 7
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	210			6 to 7
8	Hopkins	265			8 to 11
9	Portland	272			8 to 12
10	Lake Odessa Lakewood	278			8 to 11
11	Hastings	302			9 to 14
12	Grand River Preparatory	307			8 to 14
13	Ionia	325			10 to 14
14	Wayland Union	327			11 to 14
15	Battle Creek Pennfield	387			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	1.5
2	11	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	2.2
3	12	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	3.8
4	11	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	3.8
5	11	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	4.6
6	12	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	8.1
7	11	Beckett Kneisel	East Grand Rapids	8.2
8	12	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	9.7
9	10	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
10	11	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	10.6
11	12	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	10.9
12	12	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	12.8
13	11	Donnie Richmond	Portland	14.3
14	11	Kash Moored	Hopkins	14.6
15	9	Bennett Piippo	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	16.0
16	12	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	11	Tate VanDaele	Forest Hills Eastern	20.3
18	9	Bennett Teitsma	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
19	10	Owen Bremer	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	21.7
20	9	Evan Occhipinti	Forest Hills Eastern	22.1
21	10	Aaron Martinson	Portland	22.7
22	12	Sean Wilson-Ross	East Grand Rapids	22.9
23	12	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.2
24	0	Henry Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.2
25	9	Wesley Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	24.6
26	12	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	26.9
27	10	Luke Worley	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.4
28	12	Riley Day	Forest Hills Eastern	27.7
29	12	Kaden Rohrbacher	Lake Odessa Lakewood	28.1
30	12	Chase Woller-Skar	East Grand Rapids	29.0

Girls

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#5 East Grand Rapids
#6 Grand Rapids South Christian
#15 Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Grand Rapids Christian	59	76	95+	1 to 3
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	69	20	95+	1 to 3
3	East Grand Rapids	78	4	95+	1 to 3
4	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	115			4th
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	190			5 to 8
6	Hastings	204			5 to 10
7	Forest Hills Eastern	209			5 to 9
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	210			5 to 10
9	Wayland Union	226			6 to 10
10	Hopkins	228			7 to 10
11	Ionia	269			7 to 11
12	Grand River Preparatory	356			12 to 13
13	Portland	364			12 to 14
14	Battle Creek Pennfield	391			13 to 15
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caroline Randall	Hastings	1.0
2	11	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	2.4
3	10	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	5.6
4	9	Emi Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.7
5	11	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	6.4
6	12	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
7	10	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
8	12	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	10.3
9	11	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	11.7
10	12	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	11.8
11	9	Carleigh Gearhart	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	13.4
12	12	Lillian Dewey	Hopkins	13.8
13	9	Charlotte Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	14.0
14	11	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	14.5
15	10	Eliana Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.0
16	11	Alena Sportel	Grand Rapids Christian	15.6
17	11	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.0
18	11	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.1
19	11	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	17.5
20	12	Meghan-Jane Skidmore	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	17.6
21	12	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	18.4
22	11	Caroline Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	19.6
23	9	Claire Setsma	Grand Rapids Christian	20.4
24	11	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	20.7
25	10	Hailey Moorman	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.0
26	10	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	28.6
27	10	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	29.4
28	11	Ava Benedict	Ionia	29.5
29	10	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	29.5
30	9	Lenna Wendt	Hastings	29.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

There really are some good ones across both genders.

For the boys, it’s the fact that any one of three teams could win the thing. Both Otsego and Vicksburg provided an example of this in early October at the Bulldog Invite. Vicksburg prevailed, bolstered by the strong performances of Hunter Smith and Caiden Caswell, though the home team found their varsity scorers all in the 16’s. Both quality performances of regional-winning variety. St. Joseph has a case, too, evidenced by the SMAC Championship and Sturgis that saw the Bears average sub-17 across their top-five. Heck, even Paw Paw has a case, splitting Vicksburg and Otsego in the Wolverine Conference final.

With Otsego’s elite girls team, winning is out of the question for the women’s field. But qualifying spots are up for grabs. St. Joseph has been improving all fall and Plainwell has two low-sticks, needing to score three. If Sturgis should pull the upset, they’ll need to summon an effort similar to the Bulldog Invite, where six Trojan girls hit sub-21. Filtering for Region 13 teams there, Sturgis actually beat Plainwell, but in a larger field, Natalya Hoffman and Mai Nguyen could have a tremendous impact.

Boys

#11 Vicksburg
#12 Otsego
#14 St. Joseph
#19 Paw Paw

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Vicksburg	74	57	95+	1 to 4
2	Otsego	83	19	95+	1 to 3
3	St. Joseph	89	22	80	1 to 4
4	Paw Paw	110		23	2 to 5
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	151			4 to 6
6	Edwardsburg	162			5 to 7
7	Three Rivers	188			6 to 8
8	Plainwell	218			7 to 10
9	Niles	242			8 to 11
10	Sturgis	262			8 to 12
11	Marshall	273			9 to 12
12	Coldwater	283			10 to 13
13	Berrien Springs	316			12 to 13
14	Stevensville Lakeshore	380			14th
15	Dowagiac Union	463			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	1.7
2	11	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	5.1
3	11	David Kore	Three Rivers	5.7
4	12	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	5.7
5	12	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	6.1
6	12	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.2
7	12	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	7.5
8	11	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	8.2
9	12	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	10.1
10	11	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	10.3
11	10	George Whitaker	Otsego	10.4
12	12	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	11.1
13	11	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	12.4
14	11	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	15.3
15	10	John Brickley	Niles	15.7
16	12	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	16.0
17	11	Matthew LaPorte	St. Joseph	16.4
18	10	Ryan Long	Otsego	17.5
19	9	Ethan VanHouten	Otsego	18.2
20	11	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	19.8
21	12	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	21.9
22	10	Cooper Monroe	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.4
23	9	Easton Netzley	St. Joseph	25.5
24	12	William Justice	Plainwell	29.4
25	10	Landan Jenkins	Battle Creek Harper Creek	30.5
26	9	Caleb Carrington	Niles	30.8
27	10	Elijah Harris	Three Rivers	30.8
28	9	Dexter Parsons	Vicksburg	31.7
29	12	Carson Summerfield	Vicksburg	32.0
30	11	Braiden Schuh	Edwardsburg	32.2

Girls

#2 Otsego
#19 Plainwell
#21 St. Joseph
#26 Sturgis

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Otsego	32	95+	95+	1st
2	Plainwell	109		88	2 to 4
3	St. Joseph	121		65	2 to 6
4	Sturgis	129		38	2 to 7
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	157			4 to 7
6	Battle Creek Harper Creek	168			3 to 8
7	Paw Paw	168			3 to 8
8	Three Rivers	198			5 to 10
9	Edwardsburg	213			7 to 10
10	Vicksburg	248			8 to 11
11	Marshall	303			10 to 13
12	Niles	315			11 to 14
13	Berrien Springs	350			11 to 14
14	Coldwater	351			12 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natalya Hoffman	Plainwell	1.2
2	11	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	3.3
3	11	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	4.8
4	10	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	4.9
5	10	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.1
6	10	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	7.0
7	9	Addison Andress	Otsego	8.0
8	12	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.1
9	10	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	9.0
10	10	Taylee Fox	Otsego	10.7
11	9	Alice Starkey	Sturgis	14.0
12	12	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	14.5
13	10	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	14.7
14	12	Abigail Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	15.8
15	11	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	17.0
16	10	Kenna Koole	Vicksburg	17.3
17	11	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	18.2
18	9	Taylor Schulte	St. Joseph	20.8
19	10	Lulu Park	Sturgis	21.5
20	12	Marley Momany	Stevensville Lakeshore	22.1
21	11	Layla Gableman	Edwardsburg	23.5
22	11	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	24.7
23	11	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	27.3
24	10	Alaina Kirkpatrick	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.9
25	9	Kloey Osborn	Three Rivers	30.2
26	9	Leilani Machuca	Sturgis	30.7
27	9	Adelyn Richardson	St. Joseph	30.9
28	12	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	31.1
29	9	Lucy Schwartz	Battle Creek Harper Creek	31.5
30	9	Lauren Kane	Three Rivers	34.1

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The question to me – will Linden or Parma Western come into DeWitt’s lair and bring home a regional trophy? The Panther boys and girls could make it difficult. The girls were a surprise winner at Greater Lansing, knocking off potential D1 qualifiers and D3 champions. Clara Cook was a terror up front, then their 2^nd-5^th held serve with the best that others had to offer. The boys are coming off perhaps their best outing of the year, placing 2^nd in the CAAC Blue, packing up between 16:45 and 17:25.

But the odds are stacked against DeWitt. Racing here in early October, Parma Western began their ascent into the upper echelon of D2, placing all five scorers ahead of DeWitt’s 1^st boy. Linden wreaked havoc as well, opening up an overwhelming gap at the final scoring slot. Past results vs. home team improvement and home course advantage.

Boys

#5 Parma Western
#15 DeWitt
#16 Owosso
#21 Haslett
#26 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Parma Western	45	90	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	67	8	95+	1 to 3
3	Owosso	79		76	2 to 4
4	Haslett	91		22	3 to 5
5	Williamston	109			4 to 5
6	St. Johns	174			6 to 7
7	Linden	216			6 to 9
8	Corunna	221			7 to 9
9	Lake Fenton	256			8 to 10
10	Jackson Northwest	274			8 to 10
11	Charlotte	333			11 to 12
12	Eaton Rapids	356			11 to 13
13	Fowlerville	367			11 to 13
14	Lansing Sexton	423			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	1.3
2	11	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	2.9
3	11	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	4.9
4	10	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	5.6
5	10	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	7.3
6	9	Braysen Kramer	DeWitt	8.0
7	11	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	8.0
8	11	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	9.1
9	9	Spencer Sobak	Owosso	10.6
10	12	Ryan Good	Parma Western	11.1
11	11	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	11.8
12	9	Colin Branch	DeWitt	12.9
13	11	Teddy Weber	Williamston	15.0
14	12	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	15.6
15	11	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	16.0
16	12	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	16.7
17	10	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	16.8
18	11	Alec Hoy	St. Johns	17.2
19	9	Sterling Burnie	DeWitt	17.8
20	10	Gracin Zelski	DeWitt	19.8
21	10	Max Bobeda	DeWitt	22.6
22	12	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	22.9
23	11	Christian LeConte	Owosso	23.0
24	10	Micah Good	Parma Western	23.5
25	9	Luke Weber	Williamston	23.8
26	12	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	24.1
27	12	Kodi Rose	Haslett	24.4
28	10	Lucas Heid	Corunna	28.3
29	11	Elliott Cook	St. Johns	30.6
30	9	Peyton Raymer	Williamston	30.6

Girls

#4 Linden
#7 DeWitt
#16 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Linden	47	86	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	56	14	95+	1 to 2
3	Williamston	98		95+	3rd
4	Haslett	132			4th
5	Charlotte	171			5 to 8
6	Parma Western	173			5 to 8
7	Owosso	188			5 to 9
8	Lake Fenton	196			5 to 10
9	St. Johns	201			5 to 10
10	Fowlerville	226			9 to 10
11	Corunna	312			11 to 12
12	Jackson Northwest	314			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.3
2	9	Clara Cook	DeWitt	2.0
3	12	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
4	11	Courtney Floeter	Linden	4.5
5	9	Annabel Buggia	Williamston	4.6
6	11	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	5.8
7	11	Natalie Hayes	DeWitt	7.4
8	11	Abby Crandell	Owosso	10.8
9	12	Colette Charchut	Haslett	11.3
10	12	Anna Soltis	DeWitt	13.2
11	11	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	13.4
12	10	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	13.9
13	9	Kennedy Kolodica	Linden	14.1
14	9	Ella Bahle	Williamston	14.6
15	12	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	15.9
16	12	Sidney Shepard	Linden	16.2
17	10	Emma Durling	Linden	16.4
18	11	Molly Roberts	Linden	16.6
19	12	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	18.5
20	12	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	19.9
21	10	Dakota Budd	Haslett	21.4
22	10	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	22.4
23	9	Violette Goodrich	Charlotte	23.8
24	11	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	24.3
25	10	Madisyn Blair	Parma Western	25.0
26	11	Emma Cook	DeWitt	26.0
27	12	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	26.8
28	9	Penny Ewald	Owosso	28.5
29	11	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	28.9
30	11	Lilee Elliott	DeWitt	29.4

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

The four teams that are in the running for two spots in the girls race. None of the squads from Shepherd, Freeland, Frankenmuth, or Flint Powers Catholic are ranked, but that’s no mind, state spots are on the line. The home Bluejays have moved up the most over the past month. The JPC streak may have faltered, but Shepherd has had some of their depth pieces undergo massive transformations. One in particular is Annalee Takalo, who dropped an enormous amount of time at Mt. Pleasant’s Blue and Gold Invite. Frankenmuth’s odds have also increased, the Eagles coming off one of their better efforts of the year at the final TVC Jamboree, four ‘Muth girls sub-22. Freeland has been steady all October and has the frontrunnin’ Clara Kaczor as a reliable low-stick. And I wouldn’t count out Flint Powers, who a month back here at Bluejay had their best performance of the fall, placing 2^nd in the Blue division with three girls sub-21.

Boys

#4 Flint Powers Catholic
#7 Alma
#9 Shepherd
#27 Freeland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Flint Powers Catholic	47	84	95+	1 to 2
2	Alma	63	9	95+	1 to 3
3	Shepherd	74	7	95+	1 to 4
4	Freeland	121			3 to 4
5	Saginaw Swan Valley	181			5 to 6
6	Frankenmuth	189			5 to 6
7	Clio	238			7 to 10
8	Birch Run	247			7 to 10
9	Bay City John Glenn	258			8 to 11
10	North Branch	260			7 to 11
11	Essexville-Garber	282			7 to 12
12	Goodrich	287			8 to 12
13	Flint Kearsley	351			13 to 15
14	Bay City Central	358			13 to 15
15	Saginaw United	379			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	1.4
2	12	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	3.6
3	12	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.7
4	12	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	4.8
5	12	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	5.6
6	12	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	7.0
7	9	Connor Charboneau	Saginaw Swan Valley	7.9
8	10	Nico Lebron	Alma	10.2
9	11	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	10.4
10	11	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.4
11	12	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	13.2
12	11	Alex Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	14.3
13	11	Alexander Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	16.4
14	12	Drew Davis	Shepherd	16.4
15	12	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	16.9
16	12	Jackson Horn	Freeland	18.1
17	10	Ryan Brown	Freeland	18.4
18	11	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	19.7
19	9	Camden Clevenger	Goodrich	20.4
20	9	Caleb Cahoon	Shepherd	21.7
21	9	Carter Minnis	Freeland	21.9
22	9	Daniel Newman	Flint Powers Catholic	21.9
23	9	Reece Lorencz	Goodrich	22.2
24	12	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	24.2
25	10	Connor Miller	Alma	24.2
26	10	Charlie Fields	North Branch	24.5
27	12	William McDonald	Shepherd	26.7
28	12	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.1
29	11	Charles Murray	Bay City John Glenn	29.4
30	12	Devlin Johnson	Freeland	29.9

Girls

#12 Goodrich

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Goodrich	48	95+	95+	1st
2	Shepherd	87		89	2 to 4
3	Freeland	90		78	2 to 4
4	Flint Powers Catholic	107		16	2 to 6
5	Frankenmuth	109		17	2 to 6
6	Alma	144			5 to 7
7	Birch Run	175			6 to 8
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	186			6 to 9
9	Essexville-Garber	232			8 to 10
10	Clio	270			9 to 11
11	Bay City John Glenn	323			11 to 12
12	North Branch	324			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	1.3
2	12	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	2.3
3	12	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
4	12	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	5.2
5	12	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	6.1
6	11	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	6.2
7	11	Danica Redes	Shepherd	7.0
8	11	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	7.3
9	12	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	8.4
10	11	Victoria Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	11.2
11	12	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.6
12	9	Jade McCormick	Flint Powers Catholic	15.3
13	9	Emma Parker	Frankenmuth	15.6
14	11	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	16.3
15	10	Grace Hancock	Alma	17.5
16	12	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	17.9
17	10	Grace Kloha	Freeland	18.4
18	10	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	19.5
19	10	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	20.1
20	9	Molly Scott	Goodrich	20.4
21	10	Sevarah Markham	Alma	21.8
22	11	Kinsley Compau	Frankenmuth	23.1
23	12	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	23.9
24	9	Tatum McGill	Alma	24.8
25	11	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	26.7
26	12	Annalee Takalo	Shepherd	27.5
27	10	Addison King	Frankenmuth	29.0
28	10	Sarah Diffin	Freeland	29.1
29	9	Kenley Townsend	Saginaw Swan Valley	32.4
30	9	Sydney Lane	Clio	32.8

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

I wish I could say there’s been some clarity after the past month, but I’ve got nothing.

At the mid-season mark, here’s what the projections showed:

Chelsea – 2^nd, 72 points
Detroit Country Day – 3^rd, 81 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 89 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 91 points

Right now, it’s:

Chelsea – 3^rd, 75 points
Detroit Country Day – 2^nd, 75 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 86 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 95 points

If you squint closely, you might notice that Country Day and Divine Child have moved up slightly. Country Day has one notable race in that timeframe, a CHSL Bishop Championship where four Yellowjackets ran the equivalent of a sub-17 on the tough Possum Hollow track. Divine Child was also present there, placing one spot behind DCD, putting forth a state-qualifying quality effort. Their next race was at Gabriel Richard, where the Falcons succumbed to both Chelsea and Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard.

The projections love Chelsea because of the Bulldogs’ ability to stay consistent, many of their ratings with little variance. Country Day and Divine Child go hand-in-hand, with Country Day performing slightly better recently. Gabriel Richard is the wildcard, with their home invite being their finest effort of the year, a chance that the Fighting Irish could be still rising and pull off a shocker.

Boys

#2 Pinckney
#18 Detroit Country Day
#20 Chelsea
#22 Dearborn Divine Child
#25 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	26	95+	95+	1st
2	Detroit Country Day	72		81	2 to 4
3	Chelsea	75		84	2 to 4
4	Dearborn Divine Child	86		26	2 to 5
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	95		9	3 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	201			6 to 7
7	Detroit Voyageur	224			6 to 7
8	Detroit Cody	281			8 to 9
9	Detroit East English	317			9 to 11
10	Warren Lincoln	318			9 to 12
11	Eastpointe	323			9 to 12
12	Garden City	339			9 to 13
13	Detroit Henry Ford	365			12 to 15
14	Center Line	377			13 to 15
15	Detroit Southeastern Tech	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	1.5
2	11	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	2.4
3	12	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	3.1
4	12	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	3.5
5	10	Cash Wilds	Pinckney	7.0
6	10	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	7.0
7	10	Matt McFall	Pinckney	8.2
8	12	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	8.5
9	12	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	11.7
10	10	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	12.3
11	11	Daniel Reifenberg	Dearborn Divine Child	13.6
12	10	Wyatt Jespersen	Pinckney	13.6
13	11	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	14.0
14	11	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	14.2
15	12	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.3
16	12	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	14.5
17	12	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	17.2
18	11	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
19	12	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	18.5
20	12	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	19.0
21	12	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	19.2
22	9	Dominic Cai	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.4
23	12	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
24	10	John Fedewa	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
25	12	Jacob Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.5
26	12	Preston Vasas	Chelsea	27.6
27	11	Zachary Barszczowski	Dearborn Divine Child	28.8
28	11	George Fredenberg	Chelsea	29.5
29	10	Ellis Carmichael	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	30.1
30	9	Charlie Fredenberg	Chelsea	31.1

Girls

#17 Pinckney
#24 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	49	81	95+	1 to 3
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	59	16	95+	1 to 3
3	Farmington Hills Mercy	67	3	95+	1 to 3
4	Dearborn Divine Child	106			4 to 5
5	Chelsea	114			4 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	139			6 to 7
7	Detroit Country Day	158			6 to 7
8	Garden City	252			8th
9	Detroit Southeastern Tech	279			9th
10	Detroit Cody	319			10th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	11	Maya Hammoud	Detroit Country Day	3.6
3	11	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	3.9
4	11	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	4.0
5	9	Mary Hickey	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.3
6	12	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	6.4
7	12	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.9
8	11	Grace Bedner	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.5
9	11	Ainslie Carter	Farmington Hills Mercy	9.0
10	9	Hailey Baltzell	Pinckney	9.5
11	10	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	12.4
12	9	Gabriella Diaz	Dearborn Divine Child	13.0
13	11	Ella Trueman	Dearborn Divine Child	14.1
14	12	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.5
15	12	Rose Buonerba	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.7
16	11	Kaylynne Baltzell	Pinckney	15.7
17	12	Alexis Adelman	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
18	9	Wilhelmina VanderWerp	Grosse Pointe North	18.1
19	11	Abigail Adams	Pinckney	19.7
20	9	Noelle Lyon	Grosse Pointe North	20.4
21	10	JJ Lukas	Farmington Hills Mercy	21.5
22	12	Megan Welch	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.9
23	12	Sofia Dussan	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.7
24	10	Kathryn Dunn	Chelsea	23.6
25	12	Persephone Berg	Chelsea	25.5
26	10	Maddy Robison	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.9
27	10	Addison Leschuk	Chelsea	28.2
28	11	Madeline Barringer	Farmington Hills Mercy	28.9
29	12	Davea Crowe	Pinckney	29.7
30	12	Sofia Razny	Farmington Hills Mercy	29.9

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Perhaps Cranbrook-Kingswood’s girls can continue their rise and advance to race another week. The Cranes were projected 7^th in the Mid-Season Projections and have risen to 4^th. They can give thanks to both Diya Goyal and Stella Handel, each of whom have improved markedly since mid-season. Both are fresh off shiny new PR’s earned at Larry Steeb, 19:57 and 20:25 respectively. Add Zahiya Khan into the lineup and mix with the frontrunnin’ Katherine Estes and they’ve got a chance.

Of course, they’ll have to crack a Macomb Lutheran North squad that’s made a living on this course. The Mustangs have ran here on a few occasions, and have put in their best efforts each time out. The most recent came at the BWAC Championship, where all five LN scorers were able to cross under 21:00, contributing to a team championship.

Boys

#8 Holly

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holly	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Marysville	104		95+	2 to 3
3	Yale	109		95+	2 to 4
4	Croswell-Lexington	150			4 to 8
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	155			3 to 8
6	Macomb Lutheran North	159			4 to 8
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	160			4 to 8
8	St. Clair	183			5 to 9
9	Armada	228			9 to 10
10	Imlay City	243			8 to 12
11	Madison Heights Lamphere	274			10 to 12
12	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	302			10 to 13
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	348			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Broden Ladd	Holly	1.1
2	11	Cole Heikka	Holly	2.5
3	12	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	3.6
4	12	Trevor Murphy	Holly	5.1
5	12	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	5.3
6	11	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	6.4
7	12	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	6.7
8	10	Caleb McBride	Marysville	8.2
9	11	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	9.1
10	11	Joshua Byrtus	Holly	10.4
11	11	Brady VanConant	Yale	12.5
12	11	Joshua Behrend	Holly	14.0
13	11	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	14.5
14	12	Wyatt Bovensiep	Auburn Hills Avondale	16.1
15	10	Travis Murphy	Holly	16.2
16	9	Noah Miller	Yale	16.6
17	11	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	17.0
18	12	Brendan Koza	Marysville	17.4
19	9	Weston Rutallie	Marysville	19.6
20	10	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	21.3
21	11	Logan Carrier	Yale	22.2
22	9	Alexander Bertucci	Holly	24.3
23	11	Karsten Martin	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.6
24	10	Andrew Yousif	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	27.2
25	10	Colt Truscott	Croswell-Lexington	29.7
26	11	Edward Marshall	Armada	30.0
27	12	Mason Russell	Imlay City	30.1
28	11	Alexander Repp	Croswell-Lexington	31.1
29	10	Jack Abdelnour	Macomb Lutheran North	31.3
30	10	Joseph Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	32.7

Girls

#8 Bloomfield Hills Marian
#18 Holly
#22 Macomb Lutheran North

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Bloomfield Hills Marian	58	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Holly	85		95+	2 to 3
3	Macomb Lutheran North	89	3	81	1 to 5
4	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	124		15	2 to 7
5	Armada	133		6	3 to 8
6	Yale	153			4 to 8
7	St. Clair	168			5 to 9
8	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	187			5 to 10
9	Croswell-Lexington	193			6 to 9
10	Marysville	252			9 to 10
11	Warren Regina	300			11 to 12
12	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	311			11 to 12
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	434			13 to 15
14	Imlay City	451			13 to 15
15	Richmond	451			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Julia Bambach	Holly	1.3
2	12	Maddie Lindley	Holly	1.7
3	12	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	5.3
4	10	Katherine Estes	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	5.9
5	11	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	6.0
6	9	Marian Byrd	Bloomfield Hills Marian	6.4
7	11	Saige Cole	Yale	6.5
8	9	Josephine Humphrey	Bloomfield Hills Marian	9.4
9	9	Layla Tedder	Armada	11.8
10	12	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	12.6
11	11	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	13.1
12	10	Claire Albrecht	Armada	14.3
13	11	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	14.6
14	11	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	17.5
15	10	Lyla Eidson	Auburn Hills Avondale	18.7
16	12	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	19.4
17	10	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	21.0
18	10	Leah Murchie	Holly	21.3
19	11	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	21.4
20	10	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	21.9
21	9	Abby Dietzel	Marysville	22.7
22	10	Melanie Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.8
23	11	Maria Burlingame	Bloomfield Hills Marian	23.3
24	12	Eliza Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
25	9	Izzy Runevitch	Holly	23.5
26	12	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	25.0
27	11	Alayna Smith	Bloomfield Hills Marian	27.3
28	12	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.1
29	11	Stella Handel	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	30.7
30	10	Rose Hill	St. Clair	30.9

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Carleton Airport vs. New Boston Huron for the final boys qualifying spot. Most of the other spots seem set in stone, with the Huron girls providing their annual late-season rise, both genders from Adrian leading the way, and Tecumseh’s boys and girls both having a breakout year.

Unlike many other regions, we have five meets of evidence between the two squads. Airport actually holds the lead in the standings, placing ahead of Huron on three of the five occasions, including the most recent Huron League Championship. A factor to consider here is the addition of Adrian and Tecumseh into the mix. Whereas Cameron Crane and Hunter Rodak were separated by a mere 5 spots in the Huron League final, the upfront strength of the Maples and Indians could drive a larger gap. If the Jets can pierce that, their strength in depth may pay off.

Boys

#13 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	34	95+	95+	1st
2	Tecumseh	70		95+	2nd
3	New Boston Huron	105		69	3 to 5
4	Carleton Airport	115		27	3 to 5
5	Monroe Jefferson	140			4 to 6
6	Ypsilanti Community	156			3 to 8
7	Grosse Ile	195			6 to 10
8	Dundee	218			7 to 10
9	Riverview	221			7 to 10
10	Trenton	240			7 to 11
11	Flat Rock	300			10 to 13
12	Ida	306			10 to 13
13	Milan	318			11 to 13
14	Melvindale	433			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	1.5
2	10	Parker Smith	Adrian	2.7
3	12	Carter Fenner	Adrian	3.3
4	11	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	4.1
5	11	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	4.4
6	10	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	7.6
7	11	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	9.0
8	12	Landin Fisher	Adrian	9.1
9	11	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.0
10	11	Carson Scholz	Tecumseh	11.9
11	10	Mason Martin	Milan	12.2
12	12	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	13.5
13	11	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	14.1
14	11	Lucas Zeckner	Adrian	14.6
15	11	Ben Kline	Ypsilanti Community	15.1
16	11	Carter Lee	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
17	9	Jackson Satterfield	Trenton	16.7
18	12	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	19.8
19	10	Adam Ibrahim	Riverview	21.1
20	12	Kadan Crist	Adrian	22.4
21	10	Daelin Ring	New Boston Huron	23.7
22	12	Hayden Bovair	Carleton Airport	24.2
23	11	Patrick Alt	Ypsilanti Community	24.6
24	10	Gabe Busen	Monroe Jefferson	25.5
25	11	Jacob Kuti	Carleton Airport	25.9
26	11	Carson Dennis	Riverview	26.0
27	10	Andrew Bell	Carleton Airport	26.2
28	11	Isaac Kraftson	Ypsilanti Community	27.0
29	9	Grady Marino	Carleton Airport	29.8
30	12	Garrett Patrick	New Boston Huron	30.1

Girls

#14 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	40	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	New Boston Huron	62	3	95+	1 to 3
3	Tecumseh	94		95+	2 to 3
4	Carleton Airport	142			4 to 5
5	Grosse Ile	159			4 to 6
6	Trenton	167			4 to 7
7	Monroe Jefferson	202			7 to 9
8	Ida	205			6 to 9
9	Dundee	206			6 to 9
10	Milan	265			10 to 11
11	Ypsilanti Community	266			10 to 11
12	Flat Rock	302			12th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.1
2	11	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.0
3	11	Grace Pacheco	New Boston Huron	4.6
4	11	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	5.1
5	11	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	5.9
6	11	Ella McCleery	Ypsilanti Community	6.3
7	11	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	8.6
8	9	Marina Warner	Grosse Ile	9.0
9	11	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	9.4
10	9	Alexis Richards	Adrian	10.1
11	12	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	11.6
12	10	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	11.9
13	12	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	14.3
14	11	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	14.9
15	11	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	15.2
16	12	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	17.1
17	10	Opal English	Tecumseh	18.0
18	11	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	20.8
19	10	Lana Benware	Ida	21.4
20	11	Avalina Williamson	Trenton	21.8
21	11	Klair Baker	Adrian	22.5
22	12	Haley Rucinski	Tecumseh	24.0
23	10	Abbey Ward	Carleton Airport	24.4
24	12	Lydia Richards	Dundee	27.4
25	9	Isabelle Stutzman	Adrian	28.1
26	11	Lea Rode	Ypsilanti Community	28.2
27	10	Madison Agocs	Carleton Airport	28.3
28	12	London Landini	Tecumseh	29.3
29	9	Haley Lancaster	Milan	29.4
30	11	Lila Somerset	Grosse Ile	29.7