2026 Regional Projections: Division Three

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Last year at both the regional and state level, these projections were as predictive and accurate as ever. Through totaling up all the odds of the top-3 teams, I anticipated 193 of the qualifiers would be correct come regional day. The projections bested that by one team, 194 correct qualifiers. Similar results came from the State Finals.

A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race in October. This will attempt to account for injuries. There are also a few cases where I know a runner won’t be running the rest of the season.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D3 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 19

Any Big Battles?

Grayling opened the season projected in the 3^rd slot, the Vikings were present there a few weeks back, and they’re predicted to be in that position again. Their gap over the rest of the field has ebbed and flowed, waned and waxed. It’s not really about the Grayling misfortunes, as they’ve turned in excellent days at all points of the season. Likely the best came at Bluejay, where the Vikings had all scorers at 18:05 or faster. Most recently, they placed 2^nd in the Northern Shores with another effort of state-qualifying quality.

Roscommon and Lake City have definitely progressed lately and if each trajectory continues to improve, could give Grayling some stress. Two youngsters have aided each team – Eli Hejnal and Chris Worley. Lake City’s Hejnal moved into the 2^nd slot at Northern Michigan for the Spartans, reaching into the 17’s on a Cadillac course he surely adores. Worley, a Roscommon freshman, began the year in the 21-22 min. range and just reached into the lowww-19’s at Northern Michigan. Confidence boosts from each heading into regional week, momentum building toward an exciting race.

The girls team qualifiers seem to laid out into two races – Lake City and Traverse City St. Francis duking it out in a standoff that’ll teach them lessons in their bid for the podium next week. Harbor Springs and Charlevoix hoping to join the above two. The latter two are both Northern Shores foes, and we can look to their recent conference final for a little guidance:

The two teams were fairly even up front, with the Rams gaining an advantage in the back half. Field quality is important to note when applying to this regional setting. Being top-heavy and D3 podium contenders, TCSF and LC will likely place girls in the area of each teams’ 1^st and 2^nd girls. If Charlevoix’s 1^st/2^nd girls run better than expectation, that could be enough to spring an upset.

Boys

#6 Charlevoix
#21 Traverse City St. Francis
#26 Grayling

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Charlevoix	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Traverse City St. Francis	78		95+	2 to 3
3	Grayling	112		66	2 to 5
4	Roscommon	125		25	3 to 6
5	Lake City	139		9	3 to 7
6	Mancelona	174			5 to 9
7	Harbor Springs	179			5 to 10
8	Boyne City	179			5 to 10
9	Elk Rapids	205			6 to 10
10	Kalkaska	208			6 to 10
11	Oscoda	333			11 to 12
12	Standish-Sterling	350			11 to 13
13	Cheboygan	364			11 to 15
14	Pinconning	385			13 to 15
15	Tawas	398			12 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	1.1
2	12	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	2.5
3	12	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	3.1
4	11	Aurie Selph	Charlevoix	5.6
5	11	Jacob Muladore	Charlevoix	6.1
6	12	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	6.5
7	12	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon	7.2
8	11	Liam Mahaffy	Grayling	10.1
9	11	Charlie Denherder	Elk Rapids	10.5
10	12	Brayden Spears	Lake City	11.1
11	12	Thomas Janisse	Roscommon	13.6
12	11	Harper Mullet	Traverse City St. Francis	15.3
13	10	Louis Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	15.3
14	12	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	16.0
15	12	Finn Parish	Boyne City	17.2
16	12	Nate Gorman	Traverse City St. Francis	17.7
17	12	Bryce Reid	Elk Rapids	18.0
18	10	Mathieu Moore	Grayling	18.5
19	12	Leo Nothstine	Grayling	19.4
20	12	Donavin Reist	Mancelona	20.8
21	10	Eli Hejnal	Lake City	21.3
22	11	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	22.5
23	12	Jake Klemmer	Roscommon	23.6
24	12	Carter Root	Lake City	25.3
25	11	Ryan Latimer	Harbor Springs	25.4
26	11	Hunter Bonner	Roscommon	26.1
27	9	Duke Roder	Harbor Springs	30.5
28	12	Quinn Cassada	Charlevoix	30.5
29	11	Connor Ketchum	Grayling	30.9
30	10	Lewis Smith	Mancelona	30.9

Girls

#2 Traverse City St. Francis
#3 Lake City
#22 Harbor Springs
#24 Charlevoix

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Traverse City St. Francis	34	82	95+	1 to 2
2	Lake City	41	18	95+	1 to 2
3	Harbor Springs	102		64	3 to 4
4	Charlevoix	108		36	3 to 4
5	Kalkaska	155			5 to 7
6	Grayling	161			5 to 7
7	Boyne City	184			5 to 8
8	Roscommon	218			7 to 10
9	Elk Rapids	240			8 to 11
10	Cheboygan	242			8 to 11
11	Tawas	264			9 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Isadora Shaw	Lake City	1.0
2	9	Maggie Mohrhardt	Traverse City St. Francis	3.2
3	9	Hannah Muladore	Charlevoix	4.6
4	9	Aubrey Doan	Lake City	4.6
5	11	Elise Renkiewicz	Lake City	6.9
6	12	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	6.9
7	11	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	7.5
8	12	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	7.5
9	9	Kate Rowe	Traverse City St. Francis	7.6
10	10	Ellery Kemner	Traverse City St. Francis	8.5
11	11	Faith Helsel	Lake City	12.4
12	12	Nico Triebold	Grayling	14.9
13	11	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	15.2
14	10	Chelsea Philp	Charlevoix	15.7
15	11	Harlow Hughes	Lake City	15.8
16	12	Laura Janisse	Roscommon	15.9
17	10	Isabella Wegener	Kalkaska	16.5
18	9	Reese Woodham	Harbor Springs	17.7
19	12	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	18.2
20	12	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	19.1
21	11	Gabi Rempe	Harbor Springs	20.8
22	9	Ruby Okma	Elk Rapids	21.7
23	9	Ainsley Wiers	Charlevoix	23.4
24	11	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	26.8
25	10	Allison Kujawski	Boyne City	26.8
26	10	Taya Price-Thatcher	Harbor Springs	30.1
27	10	Marla Nothstine	Grayling	30.4
28	12	Allyson Albert	Grayling	31.0
29	9	Milah Eising	Lake City	31.2
30	12	Addy Wiers	Charlevoix	31.5

REGION 20

Any Big Battles?

Division 3’s got some bangers for sure. The girls team race here at Benzie was projected to be a whirlwind and it appears that will still be the case. Back in summer, it was thought that there’d be four teams in the top-13. As of this writing, there’s four teams in the top-14.

What may be different in comparison to other regions is the strength of the individuals within, especially from folks where their teams likely won’t threaten a qualifier. Projected in the top-15 are seven individuals that might need to run under 20:00 (high quality given these lower enrollments) to earn an auto qualifier. What this could do is push individuals back and gain an advantage for contending teams that can stay on the low side of things (think Caelyn Torry for McBain, Avery Kelly and Maggie McLellan for Benzie Central). How Hart and Maple City Glen Lake compete with one another up front might be the precursor toward who advances.

Boys

#2 Hart
#7 Maple City Glen Lake
#11 Benzie Central

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hart	48	74	95+	1 to 2
2	Maple City Glen Lake	54	25	95+	1 to 2
3	Benzie Central	87		95+	3rd
4	McBain	147			4 to 5
5	Manistee	159			4 to 6
6	Manton	182			5 to 8
7	Mason County Central	182			5 to 8
8	Kingsley	209			6 to 9
9	Harrison	210			6 to 10
10	Shelby	249			9 to 11
11	Leroy Pine River	267			10 to 12
12	Hesperia	304			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake	2.1
2	11	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	3.6
3	12	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	3.7
4	12	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	5.8
5	11	Edison Huizinga	Manistee	7.4
6	11	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	7.6
7	11	Silas Ackley	Hart	8.4
8	11	Timothy Wolff	Hart	10.1
9	10	Christian Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	11.3
10	12	Logan Young	Harrison	11.6
11	9	Alex Schiller	Hart	12.4
12	12	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	12.8
13	11	Trevor VanderKodde	Hart	13.5
14	11	Azrael Horvath	Manton	13.8
15	12	Mason Opalewski	Hart	14.3
16	12	Carson Ackley	Hart	14.7
17	12	Owen VanderVlucht	Hart	16.2
18	10	Liam Plainte	Houghton Lake	17.1
19	12	Oliver Graetz	Benzie Central	18.9
20	12	Braydn Winkel	McBain	19.7
21	11	Parker Weirich	Shelby	20.3
22	9	Levi Hall	McBain	20.9
23	10	Brycen Brown	Shelby	23.5
24	12	Dean McKellar	Maple City Glen Lake	25.7
25	9	Keith Kaczmarek	Manistee	26.4
26	12	Jackson Poll	Mason County Central	27.1
27	11	Walter Armstrong	Benzie Central	27.6
28	11	Noah Holden	Mason County Central	30.7
29	10	Max Wassa	Maple City Glen Lake	31.5
30	11	Andrew Gilde	Kingsley	33.2

Girls

#9 Benzie Central
#11 McBain
#12 Hart
#14 Maple City Glen Lake
#27 LeRoy Pine River

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Benzie Central	64	88	95+	1 to 2
2	McBain	80	10	91	1 to 4
3	Hart	88		75	2 to 4
4	Maple City Glen Lake	98		34	2 to 4
5	Leroy Pine River	132			5 to 5
6	Mason County Central	174			6 to 8
7	Manton	176			6 to 7
8	Shelby	201			6 to 10
9	Kingsley	201			8 to 10
10	Manistee	206			8 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caelyn Torry	McBain	1.2
2	11	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	3.0
3	11	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	3.1
4	11	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	3.8
5	9	Merrick Tacktor	Mason County Central	4.8
6	12	Natalie Rosema	Hart	7.0
7	11	Hattie Driver	Manistee	8.4
8	10	Lily Sisson	Leroy Pine River	8.9
9	12	Betsy Gooden	Manton	8.9
10	9	Avyrie Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	10.1
11	11	Alaina Schaner	Hart	14.1
12	9	Bella Young	Harrison	14.2
13	11	Brianna Patrick	Manton	14.5
14	10	Alyse Cox	Maple City Glen Lake	16.2
15	10	Kristina Bott	Benzie Central	16.4
16	12	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	16.8
17	11	Kaitlyn Kaple	Benzie Central	16.9
18	10	Mya Bronkema	McBain	17.3
19	11	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	18.5
20	11	Luisa Vander Zwaag	Hart	21.0
21	11	Bryn Riley	Hart	21.7
22	10	Grace Wilson	McBain	21.7
23	12	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	21.8
24	12	Noel Parker	Shelby	24.9
25	10	Autumn Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	25.0
26	11	Monroe Miles	Maple City Glen Lake	26.4
27	10	Sadee Wenkel	Benzie Central	26.9
28	10	Miah Elwood	McBain	27.4
29	10	Emma Miller	Hart	28.2
30	11	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	28.7

REGION 21

Any Big Battles?

Mid-Season Projections pointed to what could be a cluster of ranked D3 teams comprising Region 21 and that cluster is still present. Delton-Kellogg, Grand Rapids Covenant Christian, Montague, The Potter’s House, and Lakeview, all separated by 6 spots in the rankings (Lakeview isn’t listed at #28) and 20 points in the projected standings. With the exception of Lakeview, everyone listed here toed the line at Portage. When filtering for only Region 21 teams, the order went WMC > GRCC > D-K > Montague > Potter’s House. Perhaps that’s the case again, or maybe Lakeview, enhanced by the emergence of Mason Niewiadomski, can sneak in and pull off a shocker.

Boys

#12 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
#22 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#23 Delton-Kellogg
#24 Montague
#25 The Potter’s House

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	67	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Delton-Kellogg	99		88	2 to 5
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	100		75	2 to 5
4	Montague	113		23	3 to 6
5	The Potter’s House	116		9	3 to 6
6	Lakeview	119		5	3 to 6
7	Kent City	220			7 to 10
8	North Muskegon	220			7 to 8
9	Newaygo	253			8 to 11
10	Grandville Calvin Christian	260			8 to 12
11	Vermontville Maple Valley	276			9 to 12
12	Ravenna	293			10 to 13
13	Grant	345			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Nolan Kessler	Montague	2.1
2	12	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.6
3	12	Landon Madden	Delton-Kellogg	3.7
4	12	David Castrejon	Newaygo	4.5
5	10	Aiden Willett	Lakeview	4.9
6	12	Barrett Nance	North Muskegon	7.1
7	12	Evan Buteyn	Grandville Calvin Christian	7.4
8	12	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.9
9	12	Eli Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.0
10	11	Mason Lincoln	Lakeview	10.3
11	12	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.9
12	11	Sam Hwang	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	12.3
13	12	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	13.0
14	12	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.9
15	12	Job Moore	The Potter’s House	16.3
16	12	Daniel Erdmann	The Potter’s House	18.1
17	11	Joseph McCoy	Delton-Kellogg	19.6
18	12	Mattias Tuls	The Potter’s House	19.8
19	10	Mason Bollinger	Stanton Central Montcalm	20.7
20	10	Malachi Allersma	Delton-Kellogg	21.3
21	12	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	21.6
22	11	Caleb Glass	Grandville Calvin Christian	22.9
23	11	Jace Hilton	Delton-Kellogg	22.9
24	12	Landon Kuperus	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.0
25	9	Asher Koops	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.0
26	10	Micah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	29.3
27	12	Liam Heyboer	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.8
28	9	Ezra Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	30.2
29	12	Gibson Smith	Montague	31.2
30	10	Emmett Elsner	Kent City	33.9

Girls

#4 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#7 Kent City
#26 Grandville Calvin Christian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	34	72	95+	1 to 2
2	Kent City	40	28	95+	1 to 2
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	88		95+	3rd
4	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	109			4th
5	Newaygo	163			5 to 6
6	Delton-Kellogg	172			5 to 7
7	The Potter’s House	208			6 to 8
8	Lakeview	212			7 to 8
9	Montague	260			8 to 11
10	North Muskegon	271			9 to 11
11	Ravenna	285			10 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Elliana Max	Kent City	1.1
2	12	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.1
3	11	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City	3.6
4	12	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.9
5	12	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	6.1
6	10	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	7.0
7	12	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	8.1
8	10	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City	8.2
9	12	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	8.6
10	11	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.4
11	12	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	11.2
12	11	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	13.5
13	10	Bayla Curtis	Kent City	13.9
14	9	Adelita Tobias	Vermontville Maple Valley	15.3
15	9	Kelsey Elsner	Kent City	15.8
16	12	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	17.2
17	12	Rochelle Liu	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	18.1
18	9	Taylor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	19.4
19	10	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	19.7
20	11	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian	19.9
21	10	Brooke Scheidel	Kent City	21.9
22	10	Sonya Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.9
23	9	Olivia Gonzalez	Delton-Kellogg	23.0
24	11	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	24.0
25	9	Audra Niemi	Kent City	24.6
26	12	Riley Perley	Delton-Kellogg	25.3
27	10	Peyten Hansen	Stanton Central Montcalm	26.4
28	9	Raegan Jones	Vermontville Maple Valley	28.3
29	10	Josephine Baker	The Potter’s House	29.0
30	9	Lena Studer	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	34.6

REGION 22

Any Big Battles?

Saugatuck likely rules the roost here in Region 22, no drama or intrigue there. The race for the other two qualifying spots on the girls side could make up for it. Three teams (Schoolcraft, Holland Black River, and Watervliet) are projected to be separated by a mere 9 points, any one of ‘em could place between 2^nd and 4^th, maybe 5^th. All three were present at Portage, with Black River and Watervliet placing ahead of Schoolcraft, both in large part due to the efforts of their 4^th/5^th girls. Each drove a minute+ gap on the Schoolcraft depth. But I wouldn’t count out the Eagles just yet, as they just received the return of Olivia Bays, their #1, who came back as if she never left, racing to a 20:27 at Christian Comet.

Boys

#4 Saugatuck
#14 Holland Black River
#27 Buchanan

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Saugatuck	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Holland Black River	68		95+	2nd
3	Buchanan	113		95+	3rd
4	Fennville	152			4 to 7
5	Three Oaks River Valley	159			4 to 7
6	Schoolcraft	162			5 to 7
7	Hartford	197			7 to 9
8	Parchment	200			5 to 10
9	Watervliet	226			7 to 11
10	Constantine	247			8 to 12
11	Kalamazoo Christian	252			9 to 12
12	Bloomingdale	266			10 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	1.5
2	11	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	2.6
3	12	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	3.7
4	12	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.1
5	10	Reese DeVisser	Schoolcraft	6.7
6	12	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	7.3
7	12	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River	9.3
8	12	John Keser	Buchanan	9.8
9	11	Avery Carlson	Holland Black River	10.6
10	10	Leo Avalos	Saugatuck	12.3
11	11	Michael Cleary	Three Oaks River Valley	12.4
12	12	Ivan “Gabe” Gonzalez	Fennville	12.6
13	12	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	12.8
14	11	Casper Banner	Holland Black River	15.1
15	10	Bentley Molitor	Buchanan	16.9
16	10	Sam Casiano	Watervliet	17.4
17	10	Simon Carr	Saugatuck	19.4
18	11	Josiah Passig	Buchanan	20.1
19	12	Atticus Boeve	Fennville	21.0
20	11	Aaron Hofmeister	Constantine	23.0
21	9	Isaac Mulder	Schoolcraft	23.4
22	11	Carter Brouwer	Bangor	26.4
23	12	Jessie Bernard	Fennville	28.2
24	9	Micah Passig	Buchanan	29.7
25	11	Leo Lemieux	Three Oaks River Valley	29.7
26	11	Joseph Edwards	Three Oaks River Valley	30.5
27	9	Dylan Weeks	Kalamazoo Christian	30.5
28	11	Daren Austin	Parchment	30.6
29	12	Connor Bailey-Cook	Parchment	30.8
30	11	Zavier Gutierrez	Hartford	31.4

Girls

#6 Saugatuck

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Saugatuck	30	95+	95+	1st
2	Schoolcraft	117		71	2 to 4
3	Holland Black River	118		76	2 to 5
4	Watervliet	127		46	2 to 5
5	Buchanan	176			4 to 10
6	Fennville	177			3 to 10
7	Hartford	183			5 to 10
8	Constantine	196			5 to 11
9	Three Oaks River Valley	203			5 to 12
10	Niles Brandywine	232			7 to 12
11	Bloomingdale	234			5 to 12
12	Kalamazoo Christian	239			9 to 12
13	Bangor	352			13 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	2.3
2	10	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck	2.4
3	12	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	2.4
4	12	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	6.0
5	9	Elina Guffy	Saugatuck	6.3
6	11	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	6.8
7	10	Daniella Romero	Watervliet	9.9
8	9	Lucy Wheeler	Schoolcraft	10.8
9	11	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	10.9
10	11	Naomi Telman	Holland Black River	13.5
11	10	Allison Burns	Constantine	13.9
12	10	Ryann Monroe	Saugatuck	13.9
13	10	Janet Andrade	Bloomingdale	14.3
14	11	Esther Edgington	Holland Black River	16.6
15	11	Miranda Lowell	Watervliet	18.0
16	12	Juliana Morseau	Hartford	20.3
17	12	Abigail Mulder	Schoolcraft	21.6
18	10	Laila Wogatzke	Niles Brandywine	21.7
19	10	Tala Carlin	Buchanan	22.0
20	10	Kaylani Hernandez	Fennville	22.6
21	10	Mary Zinck	Holland Black River	23.5
22	9	Adalee Webb	Kalamazoo Christian	25.1
23	9	Elizabeth Cernugel	Saugatuck	27.3
24	12	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	27.6
25	10	Anna Davidhizar	Constantine	28.2
26	12	Anika Weurding	Lawton	29.9
27	12	Harper Bowman	Three Oaks River Valley	30.1
28	11	Katelyn Brown	Watervliet	31.5
29	11	MaKenzie McClintock	Kalamazoo Christian	32.5
30	12	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	33.5

REGION 23

Any Big Battles?

This is it. This is the one. This is the region we’ve been pointing to all year.

It didn’t actually start this way. Centreville was ranked 18^th to begin the year, but by mid-season had moved up to 9^th. Their whole crew has stepped up this year – Will Hulin up front, Max Reed, Nick Overweg, Will Swanwick, all warranting their inclusion in the top-10. Both Hanover-Horton and Jonesville have done their part to avoid missing out on a state berth. H-H has won everything against anyone in D3. Jonesville has saved their best material for the late season, winning the Small School division at Gabriel Richard.

Which leaves one top-10 team to spoil the party – Jackson Lumen Christi. They’re a senior-laden outfit that’s been here before. They’re on their home course which they’ve run thousands of times. They’ve got a reliable top-two, Soren Crosthwaite and Rocky Bolton. And they’re coming off a Gabriel Richard Invite (two weeks back = fresh legs) where a majority of their depth pieces earned a PR, essential for race-day confidence.

Boys

#1 Hanover-Horton
#5 Jonesville
#8 Centreville
#9 Jackson Lumen Christi

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hanover-Horton	47	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Jonesville	67	3	95+	1 to 3
3	Centreville	84		86	2 to 4
4	Jackson Lumen Christi	98		12	3 to 4
5	Hillsdale	196			5 to 7
6	Hudson	209			5 to 9
7	Quincy	214			5 to 9
8	Brooklyn Columbia Central	248			7 to 11
9	Bronson	249			7 to 11
10	Napoleon	251			8 to 11
11	Olivet	274			9 to 12
12	Union City	292			8 to 13
13	Springport	303			11 to 13
14	Homer	357			14 to 15
15	Galesburg-Augusta	383			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	2.0
2	12	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	3.6
3	12	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	3.6
4	11	Will Hulin	Centreville	4.0
5	12	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	4.9
6	11	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi	7.1
7	10	Max Reed	Centreville	7.7
8	9	Nick Overweg	Centreville	8.6
9	12	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.0
10	11	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	10.2
11	11	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	11.3
12	12	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	12.4
13	11	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	14.3
14	11	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	15.1
15	10	Bryce Youngman	Hillsdale	15.6
16	11	Channing Rougeau	Jonesville	17.1
17	11	Anderson Cook	Hanover-Horton	18.0
18	11	Hunter Walker	Quincy	18.2
19	10	Briggs Baker	Jonesville	18.9
20	12	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	22.1
21	12	Ethan Huff	Homer	23.1
22	11	Blake Fish	Napoleon	23.9
23	11	Carson Beach	Hanover-Horton	24.0
24	10	Will Swanwick	Centreville	24.3
25	10	Blake Aube	Hudson	24.5
26	12	Brayton Cosby	Bronson	26.5
27	12	Landen Gessner	Olivet	26.6
28	11	Carter Feltner	Quincy	28.2
29	12	Wilson Sheldon	Jackson Lumen Christi	30.0
30	12	Cullen Decker	Union City	30.8

Girls

#5 Jackson Lumen Christi
#17 Olivet
#19 Jonesville

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	38	95+	95+	1st
2	Olivet	81		95+	2 to 3
3	Jonesville	95		95+	2 to 3
4	Hanover-Horton	135			3 to 6
5	Napoleon	144			4 to 6
6	Bronson	162			4 to 8
7	Centreville	170			4 to 8
8	Quincy	189			6 to 8
9	Hudson	237			9 to 10
10	Homer	255			9 to 10
11	Springport	299			11 to 12
12	Galesburg-Augusta	308			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	1.3
2	12	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.8
3	10	Lily Britton	Olivet	3.4
4	11	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	3.8
5	9	Lilly Kimble	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.4
6	10	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	7.3
7	10	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet	7.4
8	10	Mila Scheele	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.8
9	10	Ella Worthing	Jackson Lumen Christi	10.5
10	12	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	11.5
11	12	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	12.3
12	9	Rhylee McNair	Jonesville	14.1
13	12	Kendahl Drake	Jonesville	14.8
14	9	Maisen Schaedler	Hudson	15.0
15	11	Sophia Trachsel	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.1
16	12	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	17.9
17	9	Marie Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	20.3
18	11	Addison Johnson	Centreville	20.9
19	9	Ayva Berkeypile	Napoleon	21.4
20	9	Molly Johnson	Homer	21.8
21	12	Miriam Sanchez	Bronson	22.0
22	9	Savannah Nye	Jonesville	24.0
23	12	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	24.5
24	11	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	24.6
25	10	Piper Grigsby	Bronson	26.8
26	11	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	27.1
27	12	Keira Knight	Jonesville	27.9
28	9	Emily Falkenstein	Centreville	28.9
29	9	Lauren Tappenden	Quincy	30.4
30	12	Aubrey Weber	Napoleon	32.0

REGION 24

Any Big Battles?

Just as projected mid-season, the battle for the boys’ 3^rd spot looks like it’ll be locked in between Belding and Montrose.

Since that early October date, the Rams have seen the emergence of Michael Allen. Whereas Allen was north of 17:30 throughout all of August to Bluejay, he’s been in the 16’s ever since. If that trend continues, it’ll be a major boon in the side of the Rams. The Black Knights also have some momentum to point to, with five of their seven varsity contributors nailing a PR at the OK Silver Championship.

Peering at the projections, it appears that we’ll see an indicator early, with Allen and Eli Hobson potentially getting in ahead of Belding’s #1. If the Black Knights could split the two up, that could help. However, if the Rams’ can break up Belding’s top-four, that might be a good omen for their chances.

Boys

#13 Pewamo-Westphalia
#19 Ithaca

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	54	95+	95+
2	Ithaca	72	4	95+
3	Montrose	95		50
4	Belding	98		44
5	Bath	119		7
6	Saranac	155
7	Laingsburg	183
8	Chesaning	190
9	New Lothrop	227
10	Ovid-Elsie	253
11	St. Louis	290

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Owen Poppema	Bath	1.5
2	12	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	2.5
3	12	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.5
4	11	Eli Hobson	Montrose	5.0
5	12	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	5.4
6	12	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.7
7	12	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
8	10	Dutch Smith	Ithaca	8.1
9	11	Michael Allen	Montrose	11.5
10	11	Logan Ingraham	Belding	12.3
11	9	Jaxson Scheid	Belding	14.3
12	11	Brady Oosterhouse	Saranac	14.5
13	12	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.9
14	9	Krue Short	Belding	15.3
15	11	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	15.8
16	9	Graysen Crimi	Montrose	17.2
17	9	Tyler Hopkins	Belding	18.8
18	11	Logan Gregory	Saranac	20.6
19	9	Jace Devereaux	Laingsburg	21.2
20	10	Joel Oosterhouse	Saranac	21.5
21	10	Daniel Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	22.4
22	9	Lucas Demeter	New Lothrop	23.4
23	11	Rylan Huyck	Ithaca	24.7
24	11	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	25.2
25	9	Aidan Jorae	Ithaca	26.6
26	11	Colin Johnson	Bath	27.3
27	11	Jameson Huhn	Pewamo-Westphalia	27.4
28	10	Charles Blond	Ithaca	29.9
29	10	Weston LePard	Ithaca	30.1
30	11	Collin Riley	Bath	30.2

Girls

#8 Pewamo-Westphalia
#10 Ithaca
#15 Chesaning

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	41	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Ithaca	57	5	95+	1 to 2
3	Chesaning	92		95+	3rd
4	Belding	157			4 to 8
5	Saranac	170			4 to 9
6	New Lothrop	176			4 to 10
7	Bath	182			4 to 10
8	St. Louis	193			4 to 11
9	Montrose	197			6 to 10
10	Laingsburg	212			6 to 11
11	Perry	246			10 to 12
12	Ovid-Elsie	291			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.0
2	9	Grace Jordan	Chesaning	2.7
3	10	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia	3.1
4	12	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	4.5
5	10	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.7
6	10	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop	7.9
7	9	Abigail Jordan	Chesaning	8.4
8	9	Lucy Shemes	Ithaca	8.6
9	11	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	9.6
10	11	Takoda Holicki	Montrose	10.8
11	11	Ruby Gross	Chesaning	13.8
12	11	Esther Cahill	Saranac	14.1
13	9	Tilly Bowen	Ithaca	14.7
14	11	Halli VanDyken	Belding	14.9
15	12	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	16.3
16	9	Nora Huhn	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.2
17	12	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.4
18	11	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	20.2
19	12	Payge Woodworth	Laingsburg	22.8
20	11	Courtney Lawhorne	Bath	25.3
21	10	Teagan Kuykendall	Bath	26.1
22	10	Emily Eubank	Belding	26.1
23	11	Ava Wenzlick	New Lothrop	26.9
24	9	Sophia Brandt	Montrose	26.9
25	11	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	27.4
26	10	Lexi Kinder	St. Louis	27.7
27	10	Madison Lemert	St. Louis	28.1
28	12	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	29.2
29	9	Bella Stewart	Ovid-Elsie	31.5
30	10	Olivia Roseberry	Perry	31.8

REGION 25

Any Big Battles?

Two of ‘em.

One, Caro and Gladwin duking it out for the win. The Flying G’s have stepped up in the past few weeks, in large part due to the emergence of freshman Emmett Vogel. Vogel has transformed from a mid-18 kid through September into an athlete that’s gravitated into the 17’s in three of his past four races. This gives Gladwin another candidate that can try to keep pace with Caro’s depth. Luke Herron is likely a sure thing up front, the pack of Tigers behind him is what can win a regional and make hay at MIS. Five other Caro boys have broken 18:00 on the year, three of those with season bests at the recent Ubly Invite.

You may recall from last fall that the girls race was projected to be a barnburner. Even with Chippewa Hills staying home and Ithaca heading south, there’s still a cluster of ranked teams. Four teams – Sanford-Meridian, Harbor Beach, Saginaw Valley Lutheran, and Midland Bullock Creek, ranked between 16^th and 21^st.

Sanford-Meridian is the favorite, in large part because of their depth. The projections think the pack will be a bit more tightly-wound in the top-30, then spread out a bit. The Mustangs have the ability to place all of their scorers in that top-30 range, with their best seven at 22:15 or faster. Harbor Beach has an air of security as well, with their varsity girls all coming in with SB’s of ~22:30 or quicker. Midland Bullock Creek has both past course experience and recent upward trajectory. The Lancers raced here in early October and are coming off a Gabriel Richard Invite where their top girl, Sarah Nothstine, found a PR. Saginaw Valley Lutheran will be reliant on their depth in order to get in the top-3 teams, as their first four girls are ultra consistent. With that in mind though, there’s a chance they could sneak in as the fourth team. Scenarios where the Chargers placed 4 girls in the top-20 occurred 18% of the time. Of course, this hinges on SVL placing 4^th and not 5^th, but I think there’s a large enough gap where that isn’t an issue.

Boys

#16 Caro
#17 Gladwin
#20 Midland Bullock Creek

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Gladwin	72	50	95+	1 to 3
2	Caro	74	45	95+	1 to 3
3	Midland Bullock Creek	91	5	95+	1 to 3
4	Hemlock	147			4 to 6
5	Sanford-Meridian	148			4 to 6
6	Pigeon-Laker	175			5 to 7
7	Beaverton	198			6 to 9
8	Unionville-Sebewaing	227			7 to 10
9	Sandusky	230			7 to 11
10	Otisville LakeVille	238			7 to 11
11	Reese	286			9 to 13
12	Harbor Beach	289			10 to 12
13	Millington	331			12 to 14
14	Carrollton	342			13 to 14
15	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	396			15 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Luke Herron	Caro	1.2
2	10	Asher Putman	Reese	2.4
3	11	Brendan Plante	Midland Bullock Creek	5.6
4	12	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	5.8
5	12	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	7.0
6	11	Gabe Piach	Gladwin	7.5
7	9	Ivan Christensen	Gladwin	7.5
8	11	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	8.2
9	12	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	9.6
10	10	Jacob Daisy	Caro	10.3
11	12	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	10.5
12	11	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	13.8
13	9	Thatcher Hodges	Hemlock	15.8
14	10	Silas Finney	Beaverton	19.3
15	11	Luke Mulder	Midland Bullock Creek	19.6
16	12	Grady Galbraith	Hemlock	20.7
17	10	Jackson Ransford	Caro	21.1
18	12	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	21.2
19	12	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	21.4
20	10	Gunnar Long	Sandusky	22.2
21	10	Zeke Rickwalt	Caro	22.8
22	12	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	24.9
23	11	Xavier Teneyuque	Carrollton	25.0
24	12	Mason LaVigne	Hemlock	25.1
25	9	Elliott Daisy	Caro	25.7
26	11	Maksim Kohl	Unionville-Sebewaing	26.8
27	12	Jeffery Sisson	Gladwin	27.1
28	12	Dillon Spilker	Sanford-Meridian	27.8
29	9	Emmett Vogel	Gladwin	28.5
30	9	Pierce Lakatos	Sanford-Meridian	29.8

Girls

#16 Sanford-Meridian
#18 Harbor Beach
#20 Saginaw Valley Lutheran
#21 Midland Bullock Creek

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Sanford-Meridian	68	69	95+	1 to 3
2	Harbor Beach	76	23	88	1 to 4
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	84	7	77	1 to 4
4	Midland Bullock Creek	91		37	2 to 5
5	Gladwin	132			4 to 6
6	Caro	146			5 to 7
7	Pigeon-Laker	173			6 to 9
8	Reese	181			7 to 8
9	Sandusky	219			9 to 10
10	Hemlock	226			8 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	1.9
2	12	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	2.2
3	10	Sage Palmer	Sandusky	6.2
4	9	Juliet Siemen	Harbor Beach	6.4
5	12	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.6
6	12	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	8.2
7	11	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	8.7
8	11	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	9.0
9	9	Reagan Shadley	Cass City	9.5
10	12	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	11.0
11	10	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro	11.7
12	10	Rebekah Huber	Midland Bullock Creek	12.2
13	11	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	13.1
14	11	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	13.1
15	10	Claire Burrows	Millington	15.2
16	11	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	15.3
17	11	Esther Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	18.3
18	10	Sophi Beach	Sanford-Meridian	19.6
19	11	Vivian O’Callaghan	Gladwin	20.1
20	10	Brynn Burrows	Millington	20.6
21	12	Rachael Heikkinen	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	22.2
22	12	Adeline Ludwig	Midland Bullock Creek	22.5
23	11	Lydia Popp	Pigeon-Laker	22.8
24	12	Bayleigh Finney	Sanford-Meridian	25.7
25	10	Zophia Zaleski	Hemlock	29.9
26	10	Rachel Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	30.1
27	10	Arliena Grant	Gladwin	30.4
28	9	Eden Beldyga	Midland Bullock Creek	30.5
29	10	Danica Burtch	Sanford-Meridian	30.7
30	10	Kayden Parker	Harbor Beach	33.0

REGION 26

Any Big Battles?

Probably not. The top-3 teams in each region are all coming in at 94%+. Once again, I’ll eat my hat if someone other than Lansing Catholic, Rochester Hills Lutheran NW, or Leslie moves on.

Boys

#3 Lansing Catholic
#15 Rochester Hills Lutheran NW

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lansing Catholic	36	95+	95+	1st
2	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	63		95+	2nd
3	Leslie	104		94	3 to 4
4	Charyl Stockwell Academy	124		6	3 to 6
5	Almont	143			4 to 7
6	Clawson	148			5 to 7
7	New Haven	163			5 to 8
8	Stockbridge	173			6 to 8
9	Marine City	233			9 to 10
10	Algonac	247			9 to 10
11	Detroit Osborn	347			11 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.0
2	12	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	2.8
3	12	William Gancer	Stockbridge	3.4
4	12	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	4.5
5	12	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	4.6
6	9	Coen Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	6.3
7	12	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic	6.9
8	11	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	7.9
9	12	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	10.1
10	11	Landon Shimkus	Charyl Stockwell Academy	11.1
11	12	Elijah Killinger	Charyl Stockwell Academy	11.2
12	12	Hayden Selesky	Lansing Catholic	12.4
13	11	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	12.7
14	12	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	13.5
15	12	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	14.5
16	11	Carson Potter	Lansing Catholic	16.5
17	11	James Valovick	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	16.9
18	12	Colton Grzyb	Almont	18.0
19	11	Doug Grishkevich	New Haven	18.3
20	12	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	20.1
21	12	Benjamin Kline	Almont	21.7
22	10	Jonathan Larkins	Leslie	24.6
23	11	Gideon Schneider	Clawson	25.6
24	10	Owen Peckham	Stockbridge	26.2
25	11	Jake Cavins	New Haven	28.0
26	11	Ryan Beauchamp	New Haven	29.2
27	12	Preston Varnauskas	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.2
28	12	Jamin Siewert	Almont	31.2
29	11	Tyrique Mabins	Mt. Clemens	31.3
30	10	Jadon Russell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.4

Girls

#1 Lansing Catholic
#23 Leslie
#25 Rochester Hills Lutheran NW

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lansing Catholic	20	95+	95+	1st
2	Leslie	82		95+	2 to 3
3	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	85		95+	2 to 3
4	Stockbridge	127			4 to 5
5	Almont	151			5 to 7
6	Algonac	160			5 to 7
7	Marine City	160			4 to 7
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	214			8 to 10
9	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	232			8 to 10
10	New Haven	232			8 to 10
11	Clawson	260			10 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	1.2
2	10	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic	2.2
3	11	Piper Lyon	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	3.4
4	11	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	4.1
5	12	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	7.3
6	9	Annie Lloyd	Lansing Catholic	7.5
7	11	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	7.9
8	9	Abby Creisher	Leslie	8.0
9	12	Emma Reimer	New Haven	9.4
10	11	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	10.6
11	11	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	12.3
12	9	Caleigh Gardner	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	12.8
13	10	Elsa Korte	Lansing Catholic	12.9
14	10	Kadence Ager	Algonac	14.5
15	11	Leah Flannery	Leslie	15.3
16	11	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	15.7
17	10	Jessica LeFeve	Charyl Stockwell Academy	16.0
18	10	Kiersten Craigo	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.3
19	11	Sophia Carson	University Liggett	18.5
20	9	Summer Knowles	Marine City	20.3
21	10	Lucy Chapman	Stockbridge	22.7
22	12	Ava Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	24.1
23	10	Jordan Traylor	Mt. Clemens	24.4
24	11	Aliyah Numinen	Stockbridge	25.3
25	9	Isabella Pratt	Stockbridge	25.9
26	12	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	26.2
27	10	Abby McCarthy	Wixom St. Catherine	28.2
28	10	Sophia Walker	Algonac	28.4
29	11	Nanuka Schlegel	Marine City	29.3
30	9	Evelyn McAtee	University Liggett	31.1

REGION 27

Any Big Battles?

There’s one that stands out – who can come out of the 3^rd spot in the girls race?

Blissfield is a clear favorite and has been so all year. The Royals placed 2^nd in Lenawee County (behind another potential qualifier in D2 Adrian) and won the LCAA Championship against many of these same teams. Grass Lake is coming off one of their better efforts of the year, bringing in all five scorers in the low-23’s or faster at the Cascade Conference meet.

Beyond these two, you’ve got Ann Arbor Greenhills and Clinton, going about their potential state qualifying in varying ways. Clinton has power up front, with Ella Claus, Josslyn Handy, and Katelynn Wellday all showing the strength to be in the 21’s or faster. Greenhills comes at you with numbers, with six girls sub-23 at Gabriel Richard. This may come down to field quantity and quality. If Region 27 had the strength of Region 20, Greenhills might have a greater advantage due to their strength deeper into the race. But it’s not, this SE Michigan area doesn’t have the numbers as other regions of the state may have, so Clinton just may have enough.

Boys

#10 Blissfield
#18 Ann Arbor Greenhills

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Blissfield	55	93	95+	1 to 2
2	Ann Arbor Greenhills	70	7	95+	1 to 2
3	Erie Mason	102		89	3 to 4
4	Monroe St. Mary CC	125		4	3 to 5
5	Plymouth Christian Academy	132		6	3 to 7
6	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	154			5 to 8
7	Grass Lake	156			4 to 8
8	Clinton	157			6 to 8
9	Adrian Madison	223			9 to 10
10	Onsted	230			9 to 10
11	Detroit Communication Media Arts	364			11 to 12
12	Detroit Central	388			11 to 14
13	Detroit Cristo Rey	400			12 to 14
14	Detroit Northwestern	415			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	1.1
2	10	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy	2.8
3	12	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	3.1
4	11	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	4.8
5	11	Noah Sills	Blissfield	5.9
6	10	Henry Cooper	Ann Arbor Greenhills	5.9
7	11	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	6.2
8	12	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	8.0
9	10	Haiden Bennett	Clinton	10.5
10	10	Grant Rasor	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	11.1
11	11	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.9
12	11	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	14.9
13	10	Bryson Pooley	Blissfield	15.0
14	10	Cameron Jordan	Blissfield	15.0
15	12	Porter Ravary	Erie Mason	15.3
16	9	Cooper Flohr	Ann Arbor Greenhills	17.8
17	12	Roger Mariani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.1
18	12	Kaleb Stutzman	Blissfield	18.2
19	11	Brady Bills	Blissfield	18.3
20	11	Thomas Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	20.5
21	11	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	21.0
22	9	Brennan Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	21.6
23	12	David Mills	Erie Mason	23.2
24	12	Nicklas Holmes	Onsted	23.4
25	9	Elliott Taylor	Ann Arbor Greenhills	26.2
26	11	John Verlinde	Adrian Madison	27.2
27	9	Owen Claus	Clinton	27.5
28	12	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	28.1
29	10	Alex Hunt	Onsted	30.3
30	10	Nate Kubiak	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.5

Girls

#13 Blissfield

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Blissfield	41	95+	95+	1st
2	Grass Lake	105		95+	2 to 4
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	119		56	2 to 5
4	Clinton	123		39	2 to 6
5	Monroe St. Mary CC	141		6	3 to 7
6	Plymouth Christian Academy	159			4 to 9
7	Erie Mason	167			5 to 9
8	Onsted	175			6 to 9
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	176			6 to 9
10	Adrian Madison	226			10 to 11
11	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	254			10 to 11
12	Detroit Cristo Rey	369			12th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	1.4
2	10	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy	3.7
3	11	Ella Claus	Clinton	4.4
4	12	Shiaire Little	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	5.1
5	9	Ellie Sills	Blissfield	5.2
6	9	Avery Jones	Grass Lake	6.0
7	9	Stylar Ross	Onsted	8.9
8	9	Rose Moreno	Blissfield	10.6
9	12	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	11.4
10	10	Mollie Yeager	Blissfield	12.4
11	12	Peyton Marshall	Plymouth Christian Academy	12.5
12	12	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.5
13	12	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	13.3
14	10	Josslyn Handy	Clinton	13.4
15	11	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	14.9
16	12	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	15.4
17	12	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	17.5
18	11	Breslin Wing	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	17.7
19	11	Revan Ricker	Blissfield	19.2
20	12	Tanylei Neff	Erie Mason	21.7
21	9	Eden Bloom	Plymouth Christian Academy	22.1
22	12	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.5
23	9	Ella Hendrick	Monroe St. Mary CC	25.1
24	12	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	27.6
25	12	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	27.8
26	11	Makayla Markgraff	Monroe St. Mary CC	28.0
27	11	Ava Kruise	Grass Lake	28.3
28	12	Nata Yonkoski	Ann Arbor Greenhills	28.5
29	11	Grace Farrell	Clinton	28.8
30	10	Rebecca Nadgorny	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.3