Author: mixcspeedratings

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I’ll end with a quote from Jason Kerr, “It is not about going out there and trying to prove people wrong. It is about going out there and proving your own belief in yourself and team right. You want it to be difficult, and you want it to mean something. You work too hard for anything less.”

May the cadence be quick and the times blazing. Have fun out there Saturday.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	The Potter’s House	36	95+	95+	95+
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	134		70	95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	147		29	95+
4	Harbor Springs	219			95+
5	Three Oaks River Valley	237			95+
6	Hillsdale Academy	238			95+
7	Adrian Lenawee Christian	272			95+
8	Mason County Eastern	276			95+
9	Whitmore Lake	287			88
10	Frankfort	320			63
11	Holland Calvary Christian	323			49
12	Concord	363			7
13	Kalamazoo Hackett	411
14	Pentwater	416
15	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	421
16	Brown City	429
17	Ubly	438
18	Battle Creek St. Philip	449
19	Petersburg-Summerfield	451
20	Breckenridge	469
21	Royal Oak Shrine	469
22	Mayville	477
23	Lutheran Westland	493
24	Novi Christian Academy	494
25	Webberville	504
26	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	590
27	Beal City	654

The Potter’s House is about as big a favorite you’ll find. You could take away two of Lezawe Osterink, Logan Swiney, and Jackson Rodriguez, and they’d still be the favorites. Their potential was known over the summer, adding Rodriguez off a stellar track season, bringing back Ian Palacios from a year away. Their prowess was evident early, dominating a field of D1/D2 teams at Under the Lights. More recently, the Pumas defeated a D4 top-10 heavy field at Portage, placing 4 in the top-10, swiftly improving Ezra Hagedorn close behind.

Johannesburg-Lewiston and Petoskey St. Michael are probably the best candidates of capturing the other podium spot. The two squads have faced off three times recently. The Guardians picked up victories at Bluejay and Portage, the Cardinals grabbed the regional title. That Region 29 race had Johannesburg at full strength, which may be the best indicator of their current condition. A point in favor of St. Michael is their reliability, especially in their 3^rd-5^th runners, who often race to a narrow range of ratings. Johannesburg has a bit more variability, but is trending towards quicker times (Ben Lauber with a 17:46 after running in the 19’s for much of the year, Jeremiah Witt improving as well).

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
The Potter’s House	1	2	4	11	18	26	43
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	13	20	37	60	88	145
Petoskey St. Michael	8	12	21	46	60	68	175

You may notice that the 5th boys for both Johannesburg-Lewiston and St. Michael are both listed at 60. Given the simulations, these are average places for whomever shows up as their 5th runner, not a set in stone placing.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
The Potter’s House	1	3	7	17	36
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	18	38	75	134
Petoskey St. Michael	8	20	41	87	147

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.01
2	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	3.16
3	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	3.60
4	12	Dakota Dykhuis	Montabella	5.67
5	12	Jacob Wartenberg	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.13
6	12	Cal Benjamin	Harbor Springs	6.76
7	12	Tyler Bays	Reading	7.41
8	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	7.79
9	11	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	9.17
10	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	9.57
11	12	Macartan Moore	Petoskey St. Michael	11.91
12	11	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	14.77
13	12	Nathan Wing	Mason County Eastern	16.00
14	12	Adair Artis	Concord	17.39
15	12	Zachary Maendel	Petoskey St. Michael	17.50
16	11	Ian Palacios	The Potter’s House	18.14
17	12	Skylar Werden	Frankfort	19.84
18	11	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.53
19	10	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	22.33
20	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	24.63
21	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	24.91
22	12	Ethan Green	Kingston	24.96
23	11	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	25.72
24	12	Evan Suydam	Petersburg-Summerfield	27.50
25	8	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	28.31
26	11	Michael Allen	East Jackson	28.58
27	9	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	30.17
28	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	31.28
29	11	Utah Gusa	Ubly	31.47
30	11	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	32.02
31	12	Ronin Vaden	Johannesburg-Lewiston	32.55
32	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	33.44
33	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	33.84
34	11	Luke Sprague	St Philip Catholic Central	36.18
35	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	37.01
36	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	39.00
37	11	Charlie DeVries	Byron Center Zion Christian	43.98
38	10	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	44.03
39	12	Owen Gross	Beal City	48.48
40	9	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	49.14
41	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	49.29
42	9	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	49.47
43	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	50.33
44	9	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	50.62
45	11	Alex Wanty	Hale	50.97
46	11	Adam Townsend	Frankfort	53.89
47	12	John Schoen	Capac	54.51
48	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	54.66
49	12	Kade Spahr	Pittsford	56.61
50	10	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	56.97
51	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	57.17
52	11	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	58.83
53	11	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	59.15
54	12	Brandon Thompson	Petersburg-Summerfield	60.33
55	9	Pierson Cousino	Adrian Lenawee Christian	63.75
56	10	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	64.07
57	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	65.37
58	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	66.04
59	12	Jackson Kulawiak	Buckley	66.13
60	10	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	66.57
61	11	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	67.15
62	12	Chase Snell	Grand Traverse Academy	67.29
63	11	Max Shugars	St Philip Catholic Central	67.60
64	11	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	67.82
65	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	68.90
66	11	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	71.05
67	11	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	71.08
68	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	71.09
69	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	71.79
70	9	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	72.32
71	11	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	72.59
72	10	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	74.98
73	9	Cole Bates	Concord	75.17
74	11	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	75.91
75	12	Lucas Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	76.59
76	12	Lars Huffman	Mackinaw City	77.55
77	11	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	79.76
78	11	Connor Rouse	Genesee	80.39
79	12	Bryson Bachelder	Morenci	82.60
80	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	82.74
81	9	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	84.73
82	9	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	84.80
83	12	Grant Long	Adrian Lenawee Christian	85.48
84	10	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	86.70
85	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	87.36
86	10	Kaleb Brown	Pentwater	89.36
87	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	90.13
88	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	91.80
89	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	93.47
90	12	Isaac Waldron	Concord	93.62
91	12	Caleb Diener	Hillsdale Academy	93.82
92	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	93.89
93	11	Levi Benzing	Petoskey St. Michael	94.78
94	11	Carter Follett	Merrill	96.55
95	8	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	96.86
96	8	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	97.18
97	11	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	97.30
98	12	Easton Jager	Brown City	98.40
99	9	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	99.11
100	10	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	100.08

Lezawe Osterink is clearly the class of the field. When he’s pushing the pace, as has happened a few times in 2022, at Spartan (15:20 – 218) and Portage (15:05 – 214), he’s one of the better runners to come through D4 in my memory. At Portage, probably the closest comparison to this field, he blew the rest of the field away by over a minute. He’ll be going for his second consecutive XC title.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	133	78	91	95+
2	Harbor Springs	158	13	47	95+
3	Whitmore Lake	160	6	43	95+
4	Hillsdale Academy	168	3	18	95+
5	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	218			95+
6	Kingston	289			95+
7	Unionville-Sebewaing	313			95+
8	Ubly	342			71
9	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	343			69
10	Grand Traverse Academy	347			52
11	Leland	366			39
12	Buckley	376			30
13	Libertas Christian	382			16
14	The Potter’s House	385			21
15	Farwell	395
16	Pittsford	407
17	Kalamazoo Hackett	412
18	Beal City	420
19	Breckenridge	423
20	Royal Oak Shrine	431
21	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	442
22	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	488
23	Mendon	493
24	Concord	539
25	Adrian Lenawee Christian	560
26	Petoskey St. Michael	560
27	Fowler	594

This is shaping up to be a very good team race. Although there’s a bit of a point gap between Johannesburg-Lewiston and Harbor Springs, Whitmore Lake, and Hillsdale Academy, there’s a decent enough chance that one of the latter three comes home with the trophy.

Both Johannesburg and Harbor Springs had a bump up the D4 rankings around mid-season. The Cardinals owed their rise to a 2nd place finish in a D2/D3-centric field at Bluejay, the Rams hung with the best D3 has to offer at Petoskey. The two schools have faced off recently, at Northern Michigan and Region 29, Harbor Springs capturing both of those by a grand total of one point (though Johannesburg was missing two of their varsity runners for Northern Michigan).

Hillsdale Academy and Whitmore Lake locked up at Holly, the Colts taking a 3 point victory, in large part through their 3rd girl coming in before the Trojans’ 2nd. That was before Natalie Meadows began to find the form that led her to an All-State finish last year. She’s been sub-21 in 4 of her past 5 races, leading Whitmore Lake to a MIAC title (perhaps, pound for pound, the best conference in the state). Hillsdale has had similar championship season success, attaining victories at both Class D and Region 34.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Johannesburg-Lewiston	4	7	27	43	51	62	91
Harbor Springs	11	16	30	43	58	70	86
Whitmore Lake	3	25	36	43	52	94	116
Hillsdale Academy	13	19	29	49	59	70	83

You may notice that the 4th girls for Johannesburg-Lewiston, Whitmore Lake, and Harbor Springs all are listed in 43rd place. Given the simulations, this is an average place from anyone that’s projected to be their 4th runner. You could have a girl that’s mega consistent and projects to be between 40th-46th and another one with a range of 23rd-63rd. Both may emit the same average, but get there through wildly different scenarios.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Johannesburg Lewiston	4	12	39	82	133
Harbor Springs	11	27	57	101	158
Whitmore Lake	3	29	65	107	160
Hillsdale Academy	13	31	60	109	168

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.14
2	10	Presley Allen	Mendon	2.49
3	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	3.97
4	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	4.24
5	10	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.06
6	10	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.58
7	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.89
8	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	8.28
9	9	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	8.59
10	12	Petra Foote	Grand Traverse Academy	13.78
11	12	Grace Thorpe	Harbor Springs	14.16
12	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.39
13	11	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	15.01
14	10	Ella Knudsen	Leland	15.59
15	12	Megan Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	15.90
16	10	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	16.60
17	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	17.60
18	9	Rowan Allen	Mendon	18.58
19	10	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.91
20	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	21.21
21	11	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	22.20
22	9	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	22.90
23	10	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	27.87
24	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	29.27
25	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	31.04
26	10	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	31.71
27	11	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	32.91
28	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	33.17
29	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	33.19
30	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	33.56
31	9	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	35.28
32	12	Mackenzie Lemke	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	35.50
33	12	Maze Gusa	Ubly	35.58
34	12	Kaylee Locke	Beal City	35.84
35	12	Gabriella Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	37.06
36	10	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	38.06
37	10	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	39.23
38	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	39.70
39	11	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	40.11
40	10	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	42.43
41	9	Cieara Barrett	Concord	43.38
42	12	Sophia Sanford	Deckerville	45.56
43	9	Emersyn Bachelder	Morenci	53.22
44	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	53.38
45	10	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	53.59
46	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	55.29
47	11	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	57.89
48	12	Anna Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	58.73
49	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	58.79
50	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	59.89
51	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	59.93
52	9	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	60.05
53	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	60.82
54	9	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	61.18
55	10	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	61.55
56	12	Dani VanLente	Tekonsha	62.34
57	9	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	62.67
58	10	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	62.70
59	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	63.88
60	12	Sydney Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	65.51
61	10	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	65.83
62	12	Natalie Zochowski	Johannesburg-Lewiston	65.93
63	12	Julia Jones	Grand Traverse Academy	67.81
64	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	67.97
65	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	68.05
66	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	68.35
67	10	Mya Denoyer	Leland	69.35
68	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	69.71
69	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	70.23
70	10	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	70.88
71	11	Gracy Walker	Kingston	71.29
72	9	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	72.29
73	9	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	72.74
74	11	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	73.00
75	12	Whitney Wilkinson	Hillsdale Academy	73.29
76	11	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	77.01
77	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	77.83
78	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	78.11
79	10	Ava Wilson	Fruitport Calvary Christian	80.20
80	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	80.53
81	10	Ada Grubaugh	Frankfort	81.39
82	10	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	83.36
83	11	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	84.62
84	12	Autumn Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	85.01
85	12	Abigail Guza	Ubly	85.53
86	11	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	85.79
87	9	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	88.26
88	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	88.81
89	9	Molly Walker	Kingston	90.13
90	9	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	90.80
91	9	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	91.65
92	9	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	93.42
93	9	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	93.97
94	9	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	94.45
95	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	98.12
96	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	98.53
97	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	99.49
98	11	Lilli Stanzel	Colon	101.25
99	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran HS Westland	101.56
100	10	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	102.54

Aiden Harrand took her lumps behind Makenna Scott and Abby VanderKooi, now it’s time for her to shine on the cross course. She’s been undefeated this year at the D4 level, her only loss coming at Sparta against D3 competition. She’s no stranger to the big stage, placing top-5 here each of the past two years and winning titles on the track in the spring. Two efforts from her season speak to her potential dominance, the 18:41 in the heat at Sparta and the 18:33 at Shepherd.

Presley Allen has the best chance of anyone in the field of matching Aiden. Her 19:10 at Portage was only a few seconds back and she has championship experience as well, placing 6th here in 2021 and All-State in the 1600/3200m during the spring.

Boys Adjustment: +40
Girls Adjustment: +47

PROJECTIONS

How Right/Wrong Was I? 5/6 of the top 3 teams, with the Leland Girls putting their best foot forth. 187/216 altogether on the top 3 teams (I think Jacob Tanner had 189, yeah I checked, I’m competitive *shrugs*). Anyhow, the previous four seasons, I’ve had 183, 187, 188, and 190, so this is right in line with that average. As I’ve always said, this sport would be quite boring if it were predictable. 29 separate teams rendering those numbers useless, we love to see it. And heck, even a few teams with 4 in the top 20!

BUCKLEY’S BEARS

Garret Ensor, Buckley: One season of cross country as a senior, one regional meet, one chance to bypass the 18’s and run a massive personal best. Garret’s 17:53 was way beyond anything he’s shown on a XC course and it earned him a trip down to Brooklyn.

Ariana Rodriguez, Leland: What a ride it’s been for Ariana. She joined the Leland team as a junior and commenced her career with a few efforts above 29:00. Toward the end of that season, she had gotten into the 23’s, an area where she started her senior year. A few months later, she’s still improving, all the way into the 20’s, helping spring the Comets to a drive down south.

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Nathan Wing	16:25.5	Mason County Eastern	178.2
10	Mason Sinke	16:37.6	Bear Lake-Onekama	174.1
12	Skylar Werden	16:38.8	Frankfort	173.7
10	Colebrook Sutherland	16:55.6	Maple City Glen Lake	168.1
11	Abe VanDuinen	16:59.9	Pentwater	166.7
11	Adam Townsend	17:12.5	Frankfort	162.5
10	Alex Tyndall	17:16.2	Mason County Eastern	161.3
12	Chase Snell	17:16.3	Grand Traverse Academy	161.2
11	Peter Hybza	17:18.6	Mason County Eastern	160.5
12	Jackson Kulawiak	17:24.9	Buckley	158.4
11	Kaden Forward	17:27.2	Bear Lake-Onekama	157.6
11	Mitchel Daniels	17:35.4	Pentwater	154.9
10	Kaleb Brown	17:36.9	Pentwater	154.4
11	Luke Niedzielski	17:37.7	Mason County Eastern	154.1
9	Oliver Mitchell	17:38.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	153.8
12	Garret Ensor	17:53.3	Buckley	148.9
12	Joey Schwindt	17:53.4	Maple City Glen Lake	148.9
10	Ron Hasenbank	18:00.0	Mason County Eastern	146.7
9	Jacob Plamondon	18:01.7	Maple City Glen Lake	146.1
11	Clay Shoup	18:04.2	Mason County Eastern	145.3
10	Carroll Robotham	18:05.3	Frankfort	144.9
12	Trevor Moody	18:07.0	Frankfort	144.3
10	Henry Malburg	18:22.1	Mason County Eastern	139.3
9	Keith Crompton	18:28.8	Frankfort	137.1
12	Braden Melville	18:34.4	Buckley	135.2
9	Wyatt Roberts	18:35.2	Pentwater	134.9
9	Cody Couturier	18:39.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	133.6
12	Colton Manthei	18:42.5	Grand Traverse Academy	132.5
11	Aiden O’Dwyer	18:44.7	Frankfort	131.8
10	Ryan Grinage	18:45.9	Leland	131.4
9	Matthew Bentley	18:58.0	Buckley	127.3
12	James Davis	19:00.2	Pentwater	126.6
10	Kaleb Chisholm	19:04.4	Frankfort	125.2
9	Liam McCaw	19:10.3	Maple City Glen Lake	123.2
9	Garrick Collins	19:25.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	118.2
8	Garrett Grant	19:25.4	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	118.2
11	Tristan Bembeneck	19:34.2	Grand Traverse Academy	115.3
10	Landon Kulawiak	19:39.6	Buckley	113.5
11	Steven Hossler	19:39.8	Baldwin	113.4
12	Orion Clarke	20:03.1	Leland	105.6
9	Bode Powell	20:06.7	Pentwater	104.4
10	Parker Rubin	20:13.1	Grand Traverse Academy	102.3
10	Anthony Grant	20:13.4	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	102.2
12	Kyle Deshasier	20:14.6	Buckley	101.8
9	Tobin Allen	20:15.0	Grand Traverse Academy	101.7
9	Derek Graham	20:16.3	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	101.2
9	Caleb Forward	20:16.8	Bear Lake-Onekama	101.1
12	Riley Truog	20:18.0	Maple City Glen Lake	100.7
11	Jaiden Thompson	20:29.4	Maple City Glen Lake	96.9
9	Logan Fatura	20:31.3	Pentwater	96.2
9	Cody Linna	20:32.6	Mesick	95.8
9	Isaac Whipple	20:34.9	Grand Traverse Academy	95.0
10	Weston Kinney	20:55.0	Grand Traverse Academy	88.3
9	Easton Nowak	21:35.5	Bear Lake-Onekama	74.8
12	Nick Lingaur	21:37.7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	74.1
9	Cason Adams	22:16.0	Maple City Glen Lake	61.3
9	Joshua Walker	22:29.5	Mesick	56.8
10	Trist’n Manning	22:39.5	Mesick	53.5
10	Seth VanNortrick	24:56.7	Mesick	7.8

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Aiden Harrand	18:11.0	Buckley	140.7
12	Petra Foote	19:00.6	Grand Traverse Academy	124.1
10	Ella Knudsen	19:34.9	Leland	112.7
10	Lucy Shoup	19:38.0	Mason County Eastern	111.7
9	Lauren Niedzielski	20:10.3	Mason County Eastern	100.9
12	Anna Mitchell	20:18.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	98.2
9	Brooklynn Frazee	20:21.1	Buckley	97.3
12	Julia Jones	20:21.5	Grand Traverse Academy	97.2
9	Addison Chownyk	20:32.4	Frankfort	93.5
10	Mya Denoyer	20:38.1	Leland	91.6
9	Shenoah Collier	20:38.4	Grand Traverse Academy	91.5
12	Ariana Rodriguez	20:49.1	Leland	88.0
11	Olivia Wing	20:54.9	Mason County Eastern	86.0
10	Ada Grubaugh	21:03.5	Frankfort	83.2
12	Bridgette Duncan	21:13.1	Leland	80.0
9	Kinsey Peer	21:25.1	Buckley	76.0
12	Anna Wolfe	21:36.3	Frankfort	72.2
11	Paige Bell	21:47.6	Grand Traverse Academy	68.5
9	Jennifer Kmiecik	21:57.3	Bear Lake-Onekama	65.2
9	Addisen Harrand	21:58.9	Buckley	64.7
12	Anna VanDuinen	22:05.0	Pentwater	62.7
9	Natalie Brown	22:25.4	Bear Lake-Onekama	55.9
9	Isabella Crompton	22:30.7	Frankfort	54.1
10	Kate May	22:38.8	Frankfort	51.4
9	Sofia Alaimo	22:45.9	Frankfort	49.0
12	Meagan Lange	22:46.8	Forest Area	48.7
11	Kendra Couturier	23:07.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	41.8
10	Isabel Lopez	23:08.3	Pentwater	41.6
11	Abby Kissling	23:09.2	Brethren	41.3
12	Milla Klomp	23:10.7	Buckley	40.8
11	Ava Butera	23:19.1	Grand Traverse Academy	38.0
10	Jessica Grant	23:19.7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	37.8
11	Lillie Tscirhart	23:21.1	Grand Traverse Academy	37.3
12	Audrey Smith	23:28.8	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	34.7
12	Josie Gorcyca	23:45.0	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	29.3
10	Savina Anhalt	23:53.6	Frankfort	26.5
10	Muriel Korson	23:57.2	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	25.3
11	Alleah Dix	24:01.5	Grand Traverse Academy	23.8
12	Angela Ramiro Puebla	24:08.7	Mason County Eastern	21.4
9	Elena Hopkins	24:11.2	Mason County Eastern	20.6
10	Jacqueline Hearne	24:18.5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	18.2
12	Chloe Ninon Treguier	24:27.6	Mason County Eastern	15.1
12	Teri Wieling	24:29.6	Forest Area	14.5
9	Lauren Davis	24:41.2	Pentwater	10.6
11	Abby Hughes	24:46.9	Pentwater	8.7
9	Kayla Milarch	24:49.2	Buckley	7.9
9	Natalie Myers	24:55.2	Brethren	5.9
12	Ashlynn Wardie	24:59.4	Brethren	4.5

Boys Adjustment: +43
Girls Adjustment: +50

PROJECTIONS

How Right/Wrong Was I? Only a perfect 6/6 here with regard to the top 3 teams.

WHIPPIN’ IT UP AT WAGENER PARK

I will highlight one kid from each race for a little writeup. With Regionals and their survive and advance attitude, I’ll try to shout out someone who extended their season another week when they weren’t expected to, or contributed to a team that came in with a clutch performance. Of course, that leaves out many athletes who gave a great effort, and all of the athletes that were winners for toeing the line this weekend. Congrats to all.

John Schoen, Capac: John’s senior year has been his best yet and his latest race was another notch in the storybook season. His 17:05 was another personal best, 14 sec. faster than his effort at the GTC League Meet 11 days prior. Both races were his best finishes in the league and region, and I’m sure in a few days, we’ll witness his best finish at the state level.

Zoe Van Rijn, Kingston: This girls race was going to go to Ubly, USA, or Kingston, and it could’ve gone in any order. Listen, I know this course is fast, but Zoe sped past her previous season best by over a minute and even lowered her personal best (from 2021’s Regionals) by three seconds. Kingston as a whole ran out of their minds, watch out for the Cardinals next week.

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Ethan Green	16:55.3	Kingston	167.2
11	Aiden Fitchett	17:04.1	Dryden	164.3
12	John Schoen	17:05.3	Capac	163.9
11	Utah Gusa	17:09.6	Ubly	162.5
10	Isaac Bignall	17:18.8	Unionville-Sebewaing	159.4
9	Brody Karg	17:24.7	Harbor Beach	157.4
11	Connor Rouse	17:25.6	Genesee	157.1
9	Carson Burgess	17:29.1	Brown City	156.0
10	Turlough Bennett	17:43.1	Marlette	151.3
12	Easton Jager	17:44.8	Brown City	150.8
12	Wynn Blake	17:49.3	Brown City	149.2
11	Christopher Gonzales	17:49.6	Mayville	149.1
11	Gavin Helgeson	17:51.4	Mayville	148.6
12	Devin Dudley	17:56.8	Brown City	146.7
10	Colin Beck	18:00.4	Deckerville	145.5
10	Joel Enos	18:13.0	Mayville	141.3
9	Kole Franzel	18:17.5	Mayville	139.8
12	Ben Keller	18:22.9	Kimball New Life Christian	138.0
10	Noah Hall	18:26.6	Dryden	136.8
9	Michael Walsh	18:29.6	Ubly	135.8
11	Ben Gura	18:38.9	Kimball New Life Christian	132.7
12	Nathan Schad	18:39.5	Unionville-Sebewaing	132.5
12	Andrew Vogel	18:49.0	Ubly	129.3
11	Jacob Bulgrien	18:50.3	Harbor Beach	128.9
10	Matthew Pasiak	18:51.5	Harbor Beach	128.5
12	Aidan Querback	18:57.8	Unionville-Sebewaing	126.4
9	Guy Knoblock	19:01.0	Ubly	125.3
11	Ethan Workman	19:02.5	Brown City	124.8
12	Jackson Spencer	19:02.7	Dryden	124.8
9	Nicholas Rayl	19:03.2	Kingston	124.6
12	Austin Beier	19:07.2	Capac	123.3
11	Jacob Messing	19:14.4	Ubly	120.9
10	Isaac Roggenbuck	19:15.5	Harbor Beach	120.5
12	Brandon Kohler	19:18.2	Brown City	119.6
11	Brady Wiederhold	19:38.3	Unionville-Sebewaing	112.9
10	Canton Tetil	19:41.2	Kingston	111.9
9	William Sale	19:45.4	Dryden	110.5
9	Brandon Rouse	19:45.7	Genesee	110.4
9	Nino Perna	19:50.4	Marlette	108.9
9	Gavin Zechmeister	19:51.5	Mayville	108.5
12	Connor Palmer	19:52.6	Deckerville	108.1
10	Mark Bulgrien	19:53.4	Harbor Beach	107.9
10	Tyler McKenney	19:54.3	Capac	107.6
10	Zach Becker	19:54.8	Unionville-Sebewaing	107.4
11	Connor Wolff	19:58.1	Dryden	106.3
10	Zach Will	20:01.6	Unionville-Sebewaing	105.1
10	Wes Ford	20:06.4	Genesee Christian Academy	103.5
9	Skylar Sentell	20:07.3	Mayville	103.2
12	Ty Jackson	20:08.5	Genesee Christian Academy	102.8
9	James Nelson	20:11.9	Kimball New Life Christian	101.7
11	Landon Dekoski	20:12.2	Ubly	101.6
10	Zach Stanke	20:31.2	Harbor Beach	95.3
10	Nathan Carey	20:34.6	Mayville	94.1
9	Logan Romain	20:34.8	Dryden	94.1
12	Dakota Villanueva	20:38.1	Brown City	93.0
10	Bryce Thane	20:39.4	Genesee Christian Academy	92.5
10	Ethan Eugster	20:40.4	Deckerville	92.2
10	Trevor Klaty	20:45.7	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	90.4
12	Kyle Wetter	20:46.1	Capac	90.3
12	Cody Ballmer	20:46.3	Genesee Christian Academy	90.2
11	Matthew Hickmott	20:53.3	Dryden	87.9
11	Sam Keller	20:53.6	Kimball New Life Christian	87.8
11	Luka McCombs	20:54.6	Marlette	87.5
9	Austin Howard	20:58.7	Capac	86.1
12	Zeke Ford	21:03.3	Genesee Christian Academy	84.6
9	Cameron King	21:04.9	Marlette	84.0
11	Isaiah Helton	21:07.3	Kingston	83.2
9	Owen Dodder	21:09.8	Kimball New Life Christian	82.4
11	Christopher Cumper	21:10.8	Kingston	82.1
10	Jimmy Algawali	21:15.2	Genesee	80.6
9	Grayson Klaty	21:20.5	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	78.8
9	Fischer LeGault	21:21.3	Harbor Beach	78.6
10	Orion Berger	21:29.0	Deckerville	76.0
10	Leeland Lapp	21:33.8	Deckerville	74.4
10	Mario Garcia	21:34.7	North Huron	74.1
10	Carter Kosinski	21:37.0	North Huron	73.3
11	Luke Heinemann	21:41.9	Kimball New Life Christian	71.7
11	Kaden Bruce	21:47.9	Kingston	69.7
9	Noah Kegler	21:49.4	Capac	69.2
10	Caden Meyer	21:50.8	Marlette	68.8
9	Isaac Price	22:04.4	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	64.2
12	Randy Hartel	22:49.6	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	49.1
9	Trenton Jackson	23:06.3	Genesee Christian Academy	43.6
12	Dakota McCombs	24:07.7	Marlette	23.1
9	Logan McIntyre	24:23.4	Marlette	17.9
9	Simion Harwood	24:27.3	Genesee Christian Academy	16.6
12	Alexander McMahan	24:48.2	Kimball New Life Christian	9.6

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Isabella Yeoman	19:39.5	Genesee	110.2
9	Lilah Kiley	19:45.5	Kingston	108.2
10	Kyra Beemer	19:51.7	Brown City	106.1
11	Gracy Walker	20:03.7	Kingston	102.1
12	Gabriella Reinbold	20:05.6	Unionville-Sebewaing	101.5
12	Sophia Sanford	20:20.3	Deckerville	96.6
11	Lily Lemanski	20:29.1	Marlette	93.6
12	Maze Gusa	20:29.7	Ubly	93.4
9	Molly Walker	20:35.6	Kingston	91.5
10	Reece Wruble	20:38.3	Harbor Beach	90.6
12	Abigail Guza	20:39.6	Ubly	90.2
9	Katie Sweeney	20:40.4	Ubly	89.9
10	Meeghan Flikkie	20:40.7	Kingston	89.8
11	Alberta Reinbold	20:48.9	Unionville-Sebewaing	87.0
10	Brooke Sonnenberg	21:12.5	Genesee Christian Academy	79.2
10	Cambree Torma	21:18.6	Unionville-Sebewaing	77.1
10	Sarah Nimtz	21:33.4	Unionville-Sebewaing	72.2
11	Erica Klee	21:41.7	Ubly	69.4
11	Lily Finnigan	21:43.7	Dryden	68.8
11	Audrey Napolitano	21:44.1	Dryden	68.6
11	Zoe Van Rijn	21:49.9	Kingston	66.7
12	Lauren Green	21:54.3	Unionville-Sebewaing	65.2
12	Olivia Peter	22:02.5	Unionville-Sebewaing	62.5
9	Alexandra Findlay	22:05.5	Marlette	61.5
10	Julia Rogers	22:12.0	Kimball New Life Christian	59.3
11	Shelby Bowers	22:14.9	Owendale-Gagetown	58.4
12	Isabella Hinojosa	22:20.4	Marlette	56.5
12	Isabella Aldrich	22:26.4	Capac	54.5
12	Sienna Kerr	22:30.3	Mayville	53.2
12	Leah Trigger	22:31.6	Deckerville	52.8
10	Megan Peter	22:40.8	Unionville-Sebewaing	49.7
9	Hailey McGuire	22:43.5	Kingston	48.8
11	Emily Greyerbiehl	22:54.9	Ubly	45.0
9	Cara Prusakiewicz	23:10.7	Dryden	39.8
11	Autumn Frost	23:12.1	Genesee	39.3
11	Lauren Eager	23:19.2	Peck	36.9
10	Emma Ramisch	23:35.0	Harbor Beach	31.7
11	Carly Hendershot	23:38.0	Mayville	30.7
11	Noelle Keelen	23:47.3	Genesee Christian Academy	27.6
8	Jessica Bowers	24:05.1	Owendale-Gagetown	21.6
11	Hayley Hazen	24:06.9	Marlette	21.0
9	Layney Frizzle	24:07.3	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	20.9
11	Aran Harris	24:09.2	Ubly	20.3
9	HarLee Leasher	24:11.9	Brown City	19.4
9	Ava Parrott	24:16.7	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	17.8
9	Lila Woodall	24:21.0	Brown City	16.3
10	Bridget Anderson	24:31.3	Harbor Beach	12.9
12	Emma Case	24:52.8	North Huron	5.7
11	Ella Flynn	24:54.9	Mayville	5.0
10	Nowell Van Rijn	24:58.8	Kingston	3.8