Author: mixcspeedratings

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I hope you’re able to embrace the big and small moments this weekend. These are the memories that will stick with you forever. Let’s make some good ones.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Northville	121	95+	95+	95+
2	Traverse City Central	201		45	95+
3	Plymouth	207		27	95+
4	Brighton	216		23	95+
5	Portage Central	253			95+
6	Ann Arbor Skyline	260			95+
7	Clarkston	265			94
8	Saline	296			87
9	Grand Haven	322			49
10	Romeo	322			55
11	Forest Hills Central	333			39
12	Kalamazoo Central	346			29
13	Troy	352			21
14	Detroit Catholic Central	354			22
15	Zeeland West	400
16	Port Huron Northern	405
17	Jenison	410
18	Livonia Churchill	415
19	Utica	417
20	Highland-Milford	422
21	White Lake Lakeland	429
22	Ann Arbor Pioneer	435
23	Saginaw Heritage	473
24	Dexter	474
25	Fraser	500
26	Bay City Western	610
27	Monroe	654

The Northville boys have done a pretty satisfactory job of not taking the cheese, holding onto their #1 ranking all year. They were victors in the KLAA and on their fantastic voyages to the state’s larger meets (Spartan and Portage), they came out with trophies, both wins by a considerable margin.

It’s a very intriguing battle for 2^nd, three teams by the numbers plus a few more that I think could slide in there as well. Saline defeated many of these teams at Portage. At KLAA, Plymouth and Brighton were as close to Northville as you’ll find. Ann Arbor Skyline had their day at Jackson, Traverse City Central had their day at Bluejay, and Clarkston won the OAA Red (and likely would’ve won Oakland County at full strength). In a congested field with many 3^rd-7^th runners capable of running 16:30-17:15, who can find themselves on the right end of packs will find success getting to the podium.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Traverse City Central	9	16	38	56	83	131	146
Plymouth	4	20	48	62	73	85	117
Brighton	11	18	48	63	76	98	131
Portage Central	22	33	48	65	86	120	147
Ann Arbor Skyline	9	22	31	49	149	166	178
Clarkston	24	33	48	64	95	140	158
Saline	13	20	49	97	116	126	147

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Traverse City Central	9	24	62	118	201
Plymouth	4	24	72	134	207
Brighton	11	29	77	140	216
Portage Central	22	54	102	167	253
Ann Arbor Skyline	9	32	62	111	260
Clarkston	24	57	106	170	265
Saline	13	33	82	180	296

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Benne Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	1.42
2	11	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.63
3	11	Brendan Herger	Northville	3.60
4	11	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	4.88
5	12	Trent McFarland	Utica	5.13
6	12	Sean Byrnes	Plymouth	6.09
7	12	Jonah Hochstetler	Traverse City West	8.40
8	11	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	8.81
9	12	Joe Muha	Traverse City Central	14.94
10	12	Nicolas Fry	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.16
11	12	Ethan Pruzinsky	Auburn Hills Avondale	17.32
12	12	Jared Platt	White Lake Lakeland	18.41
13	11	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	18.85
14	11	Tyler Langley	Brighton	19.49
15	11	Aiden Moore	Battle Creek Lakeview	20.23
16	11	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	21.11
17	11	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	21.12
18	11	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	21.71
19	12	Samuel Jackson	Saline	22.10
20	12	Micah Bauer	Traverse City Central	24.46
21	12	Jordan Domany	Caledonia	24.91
22	12	Brady Heron	Northville	25.76
23	11	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	25.97
24	12	Logan Detweiler	Grosse Pointe South	26.22
25	12	Brady Matuszewski	Brighton	27.97
26	12	Caleb Branch	Muskegon Mona Shores	28.20
27	12	Ethan Krampe	Forest Hills Central	28.30
28	11	Connor Clor	Romeo	29.21
29	11	Truman Johnson	Saline	31.19
30	12	Alex Bobak	Plymouth	32.01
31	10	Taye (Sintayehu) Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	35.34
32	11	Liam Walters	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	38.37
33	11	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	38.47
34	12	Colin Graham	Rockford	39.24
35	11	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	40.31
36	10	Ethan Powell	Northville	40.41
37	12	Benjamin Smith	Hartland	40.68
38	11	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	41.22
39	12	Griffin Conway	Novi	41.46
40	10	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	41.97
41	11	Iain Forrest	Davison	44.11
42	12	Matthew Short	Berkley	46.16
43	11	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	46.34
44	12	Owen Lawrence	East Kentwood	47.46
45	12	Jaben Bakker	Hudsonville	48.34
46	12	Brock Malaikal	Northville	49.48
47	12	Nathan Riddering	Novi	50.04
48	12	Glen Davis	Port Huron Northern	50.68
49	12	Justin Roose	Fraser	51.21
50	12	Henry Poploskie	Clarkston	52.22
51	12	Elliot Carey	Salem	55.27
52	12	Christopher Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	55.65
53	12	Ben Hunter	Portage Central	57.13
54	12	Samuel Roberts	Dearborn	58.40
55	11	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	59.03
56	11	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	59.48
57	12	Seth Pianga	Livonia Churchill	59.52
58	12	Joshua Gormley	Portage Central	62.84
59	11	Tyler Donovan	Fraser	66.56
60	12	Caleb Bost	Battle Creek Lakeview	66.72
61	11	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	69.84
62	11	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West	70.09
63	12	Nathan Katic	Fenton	70.20
64	11	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	70.96
65	12	Eddie King	Farmington	71.16
66	12	Matthew Atkinson	Detroit Catholic Central	72.10
67	12	Logan Post	Portage Northern	72.36
68	11	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	73.18
69	12	Chase Holwerda	Zeeland West	74.49
70	12	Connor Martin	Lapeer	74.79
71	11	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	75.15
72	9	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	75.99
73	12	Espen Wood	Cedar Springs	76.60
74	12	Reuben Philip	Livonia Stevenson	79.46
75	10	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	80.84
76	0	Seth Conner	Jenison	81.84
77	11	Parker Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	81.84
78	12	Jason Whitton	Saline	82.74
79	12	Sebastian Cervelli	West Bloomfield	83.45
80	12	Jack Mathers	Macomb Dakota	83.59
81	10	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	84.95
82	10	Ben Held	Grand Haven	85.16
83	12	Luke Butler	Monroe	85.41
84	12	Brandon Latta	Northville	85.56
85	11	Luke Campbell	Brighton	85.77
86	11	Louis D’Souza	Troy	88.37
87	10	Alex McArthur	Oxford	88.58
88	12	Jett Reimers	Traverse City Central	88.79
89	12	Owen Ackerman	Dexter	90.73
90	10	Adam Dicken	Canton	93.44
91	10	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	94.12
92	11	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	95.35
93	11	Andrew Floros	Clarkston	95.59
94	12	Gabriel Trevino	Saginaw Heritage	96.75
95	12	Quaid Schimetz	Highland-Milford	97.54
96	11	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	98.62
97	12	Tyler Gaylord	Plymouth	100.06
98	10	Mason Lucas	Jenison	100.40
99	12	Gavin Voetberg	Portage Central	101.64
100	12	Andre Soisson	Kalamazoo Central	102.55

It’s tough to evaluate Benne Anderson and Seth Norder, both taking a judicious approach on when to go to the well, but here they both are. The two have been near or at the top of the D1 leaderboard for the season, and we got to see them chase Hunter Jones while locking heads at Portage. Anderson won that matchup by 1.3 seconds, 14:44 to 14:45, I don’t expect any different on Saturday.

I also expect others to try their hand and steal one. Brendan Herger and Thomas Westphal would both hold the sophomore 1600m record if not for the other or Norder. Trent McFarland will kick anyone down. And steady Sean Byrnes has the strength to capture any carnage from what will surely be a hot pace.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	117	59	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	125	37	91	95+
3	Brighton	177	4	10	95+
4	Saline	210			95+
5	Romeo	237			95+
6	Traverse City West	276			95+
7	Ann Arbor Skyline	289			93
8	Okemos	304			90
9	Jenison	316			66
10	Oxford	332			52
11	Walled Lake Northern	338			43
12	Northville	344			31
13	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	368			5
14	Grand Haven	370			12
15	Traverse City Central	388			3
16	Macomb Dakota	389			7
17	Dexter	405
18	Highland-Milford	434
19	Troy	440
20	Lowell	453
21	Forest Hills Central	467
22	Farmington	489
23	Clarkston	531
24	Canton	535
25	Portage Central	558
26	White Lake Lakeland	589
27	Ann Arbor Huron	671
28	Temperance Bedford	701

The final race of the day may end up being one of the better team battles. Both Holland West Ottawa and Ann Arbor Pioneer have been locked into the top-2 spots all throughout the fall. Both have been to this stage before, have state champions as senior leaders, have underclassmen improving by the minute. The numbers show West Ottawa’s cushion through their first two being a decent advantage, with Pioneer gradually cutting into that gap.

Saline may be another team to defy the fastest fifth philosophy, having the closest 1-5 spread and a few great candidates at the best fifth runner in the field. That formula works well in large meets but it also worked well in their Region 5 upset of Pioneer. Another team that’s been working it in the past month has been Brighton, who finished right behind Saline at Portage and has been helped by the return of one of their top girls in winning the KLAA and Region 4.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Holland West Ottawa	1	2	23	40	51	94	122
Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	11	19	39	51	66	79

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Holland West Ottawa	1	3	26	66	117
Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	16	35	74	125

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.14
2	12	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	2.01
3	12	Allison Arnsman	Grandville	2.94
4	11	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	4.38
5	12	Emily Cooper	Ann Arbor Pioneer	6.67
6	12	Annika Sandman	Lowell	6.80
7	12	Allison Cornell	Forest Hills Northern	8.81
8	12	Madison Clor	Romeo	9.22
9	10	Lucy Cook	Rochester	10.35
10	11	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	11.39
11	12	Maya Guikema	Jenison	12.59
12	10	Victoria Garces	H.H. Dow	14.41
13	11	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.75
14	10	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	17.75
15	12	Taylor Pangburn	Grand Ledge	19.17
16	10	Cassie Garcia	Northville	19.81
17	11	Selma Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	20.05
18	12	Mackenzie Wright	Howell	20.84
19	11	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	22.19
20	10	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	23.62
21	11	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	23.87
22	10	Molly Baracco	Farmington	25.46
23	10	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	25.52
24	10	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	26.31
25	11	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	26.94
26	12	Natalie Kessler	Ann Arbor Skyline	28.02
27	9	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	28.63
28	11	Nikki Carothers	Brighton	29.18
29	12	Samantha Cost	Wyandotte Roosevelt	30.14
30	11	Ella Christensen	Northville	34.00
31	10	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	34.79
32	11	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	34.92
33	12	Megan Postma	Holland West Ottawa	35.10
34	10	Lauren Walker	Holt	37.55
35	12	Emma Netzel	Holt	38.06
36	9	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	40.63
37	9	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	42.79
38	9	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	43.16
39	12	Mia Rogan	Saline	43.33
40	11	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow	44.99
41	10	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	45.58
42	12	Lily Solek	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	48.14
43	12	Cara Newman	Canton	50.53
44	12	Ana Dunfee	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	51.58
45	10	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	51.93
46	11	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	52.27
47	12	Chloe Nixon	Rochester	52.28
48	12	Grace Harkenrider	Highland-Milford	53.24
49	11	Lily Salazar	Okemos	54.77
50	10	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	58.58
51	12	Jacie Remtema	Highland-Milford	58.76
52	12	Genavieve Kushner-Lopez	Walled Lake Western	60.39
53	12	Sophia Thomas	Grand Blanc	60.53
54	12	Caroline Vance	Ann Arbor Skyline	61.35
55	11	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	61.57
56	11	Laney Alig	Saline	64.23
57	12	Ambria Nagel	Bay City Western	64.59
58	11	Braydee Elling	Oxford	65.58
59	11	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	66.39
60	12	Julia Kozal	Forest Hills Northern	67.30
61	12	Hope Webber	Mattawan	67.85
62	9	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	68.33
63	11	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	70.45
64	11	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	70.46
65	12	Maggie Otto	Jenison	70.73
66	12	Amanda Soldan	Rochester Adams	72.95
67	12	Bella Hoffer	Zeeland West	73.21
68	11	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	74.82
69	11	Addison Johnson	Utica	75.07
70	10	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	76.39
71	11	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	76.45
72	9	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	77.83
73	9	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	81.04
74	10	Abby Roth	Saline	82.38
75	12	Anjali Kidambi	Novi	83.64
76	10	Sienna Snyder	Saline	83.86
77	9	Ellery Horness	Muskegon Mona Shores	84.23
78	12	Rebekah Asselin	Temperance Bedford	84.80
79	12	Lauren Wroza	Rochester	85.21
80	11	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	85.87
81	11	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	88.38
82	11	Nicole Mays	Okemos	89.78
83	12	Leah White	Ann Arbor Skyline	89.95
84	10	Corynn Gady	Saline	90.07
85	12	Larissa McGrath	Cedar Springs	91.39
86	11	Kylee King	Oak Park	91.75
87	9	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	92.07
88	10	Lillian Deskins	Grosse Pointe North	92.48
89	12	Natalia Quigley	Caledonia	92.63
90	9	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	93.19
91	12	Amyla Eberhart	South Lyon East	95.02
92	10	Grace Roth	Saline	95.51
93	12	Taylor Regester	Walled Lake Northern	96.29
94	10	Grace Grupido	Fraser	97.31
95	10	Sydney Law	Byron Center	98.21
96	11	Emma Dickins	Alpena	98.67
97	12	Ava Walsh	White Lake Lakeland	99.34
98	11	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	99.56
99	10	Annalise Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	99.64
100	11	Madelyn Vande Bunte	Jenison	100.37

It’s just some OK Red/Region 1 domination through the first three spots. I love the differing paths to get here. Arianne Olson, the grizzled vet coming off her first individual title in the spring. Helen Sachs, observing on the fly last year, taking a giant leap forward early in the season. Allie Arnsman, on the comeback trail, making up for a lost track season.

I hope you enjoyed reading all these! Take a look at Jacob Tanner’s previews, take a look at the coaches polls. Most importantly, take a look within and race with the confidence and swagger that you’ve used to get here. I believe in you, we all believe in you, and the whole state is ready to see what you’ve got tomorrow.

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I hope you’re able to embrace the big and small moments this weekend. These are the memories that will stick with you forever. Let’s make some good ones.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Pinckney	134	53	84	95+
2	Chelsea	146	23	54	95+
3	East Grand Rapids	149	22	53	95+
4	Forest Hills Eastern	173		2	95+
5	Adrian	182		5	95+
6	Grand Rapids Christian	212		2	95+
7	Otsego	237			95+
8	Dearborn Divine Child	253			95+
9	St. Johns	292			95+
10	Freeland	324			80
11	Allendale	365			13
12	St. Clair	380
13	Petoskey	384
14	Sparta	387
15	Linden	389			6
16	Clio	412
17	Hamilton	413
18	Fremont	416
19	Grand Rapids South Christian	455
20	Yale	475
21	Alma	482
22	Mason	489
23	Corunna	564
24	Plainwell	596
25	St. Joseph	603
26	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	605
27	Armada	641

Here lies the race of the day, three teams with very viable chances to claim the title. All were present in the top-5 over the summer, all have been in the top-5 throughout the past month. There have been a few notable matchups between the three. Spartan, where Chelsea came through and East Grand Rapids left battered and motivated. Otsego Bulldog, where East Grand Rapids exacted revenge. And Portage, where Pinckney upended the state and escaped with a 5-point victory.

The three bring forth different styles and compositions to their scoring. Pinckney is stronger up front, their 5^th rapidly improving. In comparison, East Grand Rapids is a bit behind Pinckney with regard to their top guys, but has a consistently stronger 5^th. Chelsea is a blend between the two, again with great depth and the ability to displace.

Speaking of quality depth, Forest Hills Eastern can always rely on the adage that the fastest fifth wins. I’ll have to do a deep dive on this after the season, but my estimation is that 90-95% of the time, the team with the fastest fifth wins the state title.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Pinckney	4	15	20	25	69	90	124
Chelsea	1	17	25	46	56	67	89
East Grand Rapids	15	21	27	36	50	73	85
Forest Hills Eastern	5	34	40	45	49	57	85
Adrian	7	10	28	57	80	101	117
Grand Rapids Christian	12	35	47	55	63	76	120
Otsego	18	33	46	62	78	98	125

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Pinckney	4	20	39	65	134
Chelsea	1	19	44	90	146
East Grand Rapids	15	36	63	99	149
Forest Hills Eastern	5	39	79	124	173
Adrian	7	17	45	102	182
Grand Rapids Christian	12	47	94	149	212
Otsego	18	51	98	160	237

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Connell Alford	Chelsea	1.53
2	12	Joey Bowman	St. Johns	3.97
3	12	Michael Hegarty	Dearborn Divine Child	4.51
4	12	Carter McCalister	Monroe Jefferson	4.61
5	11	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	5.01
6	12	Aiden Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	5.97
7	12	Kyle Eberhard	Linden	6.13
8	12	Aiden Smith	Adrian	8.79
9	10	TJ Hansen	Freeland	10.29
10	11	Braylon Petty	Adrian	11.11
11	11	Nate Carmody	Haslett	11.62
12	11	Solomon Kwartowitz	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	12.68
13	10	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	14.05
14	11	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	15.15
15	12	Braydon Honsinger	Freeland	21.81
16	11	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	21.91
17	11	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	23.30
18	11	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	23.47
19	12	Bram Hartsuff	Chelsea	24.86
20	11	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	25.44
21	12	Colin Wesseldyk	Otsego	25.59
22	12	Zach Debeauclair	Pinckney	26.27
23	11	Paul Moore	Pinckney	26.34
24	12	Zebedee Swager	Chelsea	28.57
25	12	Carter Boullard	St. Clair	28.69
26	11	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	29.06
27	12	Camden Khon	Armada	29.98
28	11	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	30.63
29	11	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	31.94
30	11	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	32.77
31	11	Noah Lambers	Holland	32.95
32	12	Andre Richmond	Whitehall	33.85
33	12	Caleb Boes	Grand Rapids South Christian	35.06
34	12	Elijah Robinson	East Grand Rapids	35.70
35	12	Max VanHuis	Hamilton	37.01
36	9	Moises Salazar	Adrian	37.16
37	11	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	37.25
38	12	Owen Westerkamp	Big Rapids	38.35
39	12	Camden Johnecheck	Williamston	39.20
40	10	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	40.06
41	12	Carter McIlroy	Whitehall	44.33
42	9	Thomas Larson	Alma	46.26
43	10	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	47.09
44	9	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	48.11
45	12	Luke Morrison	Berrien Springs	49.67
46	10	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	50.24
47	10	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	50.52
48	11	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	51.73
49	12	Koda Brandt	Charlotte	53.99
50	10	Seth Mead	Gladwin	54.11
51	10	Alex Doneth	Mason	59.76
52	11	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	60.00
53	11	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	61.02
54	12	Devin Weaver	Wayland Union	62.86
55	12	Adrian Castillo	Holland	63.04
56	10	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	63.63
57	12	Tyler Dohm	St. Johns	64.13
58	11	Blake Ferguson	Yale	65.17
59	10	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	65.37
60	10	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	65.60
61	10	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	65.62
62	12	Gavin Wiersma	Zeeland East	66.75
63	10	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	69.52
64	11	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	70.12
65	12	Joseph VanderKooi	Grand Rapids South Christian	70.45
66	10	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	71.05
67	11	Joe Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	71.20
68	12	Will Vanderbor	Paw Paw	72.24
69	10	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	72.68
70	12	Tyler Heath	Clio	73.70
71	12	Alex Parker	Forest Hills Eastern	73.72
72	12	David Harris	St. Clair	74.59
73	11	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	75.53
74	11	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	75.72
75	11	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	77.03
76	12	Pierce Bentley	Otsego	78.66
77	12	Nik Shilling	Ortonville Brandon	79.92
78	11	Aiden Kruger	Niles	79.94
79	12	Nick Spruce	Chelsea	80.44
80	11	Sean Pettis	Fremont	81.93
81	12	Ryan Blackwood	Linden	82.22
82	11	Jackson Dell	Chelsea	85.61
83	11	Andrew Yax	Clio	87.76
84	12	Reuben Wiering	Grand Rapids Christian	88.09
85	9	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	89.16
86	11	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	89.74
87	9	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	90.09
88	12	Ben Schefka	Adrian	90.36
89	11	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	92.71
90	12	Ben Knuth	Big Rapids	92.91
91	10	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	93.36
92	11	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	93.97
93	10	Leo Swager	Chelsea	94.75
94	11	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	95.42
95	9	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	95.53
96	10	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	95.63
97	12	Luke Aldrich	Otsego	95.97
98	12	Ryan Morris	New Boston Huron	96.92
99	12	James Meninga	Mason	97.65
100	12	Nathan Ulcak	Dearborn Divine Child	98.09

Connell Alford opened the season with a few times that gave evidence of eye-popping potential, 15:30’s on hotter early season meets at Sharp Park and the Meadows. When it came time to truly race, it’s been a steady stream of records and dominance. Spartan, Bulldog, Portage, SEC, Regionals, he’s put at least a 10 second gap on anyone from a D2 school. He’s the clear favorite, but those gaps are closing.

As is the case with many of the previous matchups, this should be a quality race for second and perhaps an upset victory. Joey Bowman has been sub-16 in every last race and only has one loss to his name. Michael Hegarty for the fourth year in a row has posted a PB in early October and drove his times down further than that. Carter McCalister was right there with Hegarty in Region 18, racing to a 15:07 on a quick Milan course. Kyle Eberhard has kept up his penchant of championship wins, grabbing the FML and Greater Flint crowns. Aiden Sullivan may have the best footspeed. Evan Loughridge is the most improved of the bunch and comes off a regional victory.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	East Grand Rapids	95	84	99	95+
2	Otsego	118	14	84	95+
3	Grand Rapids Christian	148		17	95+
4	Forest Hills Eastern	210			95+
5	Spring Lake	216			95+
6	St. Joseph	227			95+
7	Zeeland East	258			95+
8	Goodrich	274			95+
9	Alma	318			74
10	St. Johns	330			43
11	Petoskey	347			18
12	Williamston	355			16
13	Frankenmuth	359			12
14	Grand Rapids South Christian	360			14
15	Monroe Jefferson	369			19
16	Adrian	395			6
17	Ludington	419			0
18	Owosso	428			0
19	Freeland	435			0
20	Chelsea	467			0
21	Cadillac	474			0
22	Croswell-Lexington	479			0
23	St. Clair	527			0
24	Linden	566			0
25	Warren Regina	569			0
26	Vicksburg	587			0
27	Detroit Country Day	606			0

With their contrasting styles, East Grand Rapids and Otsego will lock up for a colossal matchup. Since the beginning of championship season, the two squads have been ranked in the top 2 spots.

Somewhat controversially, East Grand Rapids has held the top spot. The reason may be in my ranking philosophy. I don’t look at head to head matchups or meet scores, I use the top 7 runners from a squad, regardless if they all ran in the same meet. The Pioneers have had very few occasions where all of their best girls have competed together. More recent meets (OK White Championship and Region 12) can give a glimpse into how EGR performs with their full (or top six) varsity girls racing. The OK White Meet had five girls under 19:10 (quick course), at Region 12, they were able to put six girls in the top 20.

Otsego has sat in that #2 spot for the past month, rightfully wondering why they’re so low. After all, the Bulldogs have picked up victories in D2-heavy fields at Spartan, Cougar Falcon, Otsego Bulldog, and Portage. The big race experience is there, I should say the big race WINNING experience is there.

Grand Rapids Christian is pretty solidly in third, a position they’ve been in for the majority of the past month. The Eagles hold it down there despite missing Naomi Nelson, a testament to everyone stepping up in her absence. Spring Lake gave them a stiff test at Region 11, but the patient racing paid off in the final mile and in the standings.

*LATE EDIT* a few people pointed out that Naomi Nelson is now in the entries. To be efficient on a tight schedule, I did all the calculating and simulating on Tuesday and she wasn’t listed then. This changes things up a bit. My immediate guess is she’s worth at least 30 points, perhaps even 50. Which throws Grand Rapids Christian smack into the top 3 with a very real shot of winning the whole thing. Since these are the actual predictions and I hope I’ve built up enough leeway to do this, I’ll deviate from the normal numbers – 1. East Grand Rapids, 2. – Grand Rapids Christian, 3 – Otsego.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
East Grand Rapids	2	14	20	25	35	47	72
Otsego	5	7	11	16	79	114	133
Grand Rapids Christian	2	15	23	47	63	74	89

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
East Grand Rapids	2	16	35	60	95
Otsego	5	12	23	39	118
Grand Rapids Christian	2	17	39	86	148

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.74
2	11	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.79
3	11	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	3.37
4	11	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	4.10
5	11	Megan Germain	Otsego	5.16
6	9	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	8.34
7	10	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	9.87
8	12	Emma Janesak	Sparta	12.74
9	11	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	13.91
10	11	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	13.94
11	11	Logan Brazee	Otsego	14.37
12	11	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	14.50
13	12	Lily Parker	Spring Lake	15.29
14	10	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	16.33
15	10	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	16.94
16	11	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	17.15
17	11	Meghan Ford	Mason	17.79
18	9	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	18.12
19	10	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	20.17
20	11	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	22.22
21	10	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	23.26
22	11	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	24.04
23	10	Madeline Loe	Petoskey	25.85
24	9	Gracie Lynn	East Grand Rapids	26.73
25	11	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	26.97
26	9	Reese Lynn	East Grand Rapids	27.20
27	9	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	28.52
28	12	Alisa Mason	Holland	32.00
29	10	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	35.92
30	12	Sarah Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	35.97
31	10	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	37.28
32	10	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	38.16
33	11	Abby Young	St. Johns	38.63
34	12	Sophie Endrud	Detroit Country Day	42.05
35	12	Ellory Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	42.32
36	11	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	42.72
37	11	Camille DeCola	Marshall	43.53
38	10	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	45.37
39	12	Kaylee Pesta	Tecumseh	46.09
40	10	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	47.11
41	12	Ariel Warner	Shepherd	47.98
42	9	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	48.74
43	11	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	50.18
44	12	Camryn Bodine	East Grand Rapids	50.21
45	10	Joy Evans	Alma	50.41
46	12	Olivia Barabas	Wayland Union	50.76
47	10	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	52.23
48	11	Ashlyn Smith	Forest Hills Eastern	55.45
49	12	Olivia Ippel	St. Joseph	56.25
50	11	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	57.27
51	11	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	57.48
52	9	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	57.65
53	10	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	57.84
54	12	Gianna-Marie Schubert	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	58.23
55	10	Jaiden Griffith	Williamston	58.23
56	10	Summer Brower	Ludington	59.27
57	9	Linnea Paige	Fremont	60.97
58	12	Catrina Farris	Hamilton	62.09
59	9	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	62.21
60	12	Lauren Hunter	Haslett	62.23
61	11	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	63.27
62	11	Sophia Lado	East Grand Rapids	63.63
63	10	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	66.19
64	10	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	67.18
65	12	Abby O’Brien	Comstock Park	68.69
66	11	Remington Arney	Newaygo	70.50
67	11	Libby Summerland	Owosso	71.51
68	9	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	72.16
69	10	Mea D’agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	74.42
70	10	Karie Keefer	Freeland	75.85
71	9	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	75.97
72	11	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	76.21
73	9	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	76.31
74	9	Jada Prescott	Freeland	79.03
75	12	Ariana Treat	Whitehall	79.04
76	11	Anastee Davis	Adrian	81.80
77	11	Alexis Waring	Goodrich	82.41
78	9	Christina Theis	Ludington	82.79
79	10	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	82.92
80	10	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	82.98
81	12	Ava Pergitone	St. Clair	83.06
82	10	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	84.24
83	11	Yoselin Fermin-Campos	Adrian	84.30
84	12	Ava Buhlman	Allendale	84.57
85	10	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	84.81
86	12	Sarah Timmer	Grand Rapids Christian	85.86
87	10	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	86.05
88	9	Sydney Ferguson	DeWitt	87.35
89	10	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	88.67
90	11	Brianna Albers	Richmond	88.88
91	10	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	92.44
92	10	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	92.74
93	10	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	92.77
94	10	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	92.78
95	9	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	94.35
96	9	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	95.66
97	10	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	95.69
98	12	Abigail Petr	East Grand Rapids	97.68
99	9	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	101.03
100	12	Anna Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	102.15

The individual title looks to be a competitive head-to-head throwdown between two conference foes. Both have grabbed victory in matchups between each other, Drew Muller in more recent races, Natalie VanOtteren early in the year. The two ventured separate ways for Regionals, both winning their respective races. Natalie had an impressive effort, pulling away from Allison Kuzma in the late miles, Drew may have been saving herself for this big weekend ahead.

Both Kuzma and Mary Richmond have been here before, All-State, placing highly in their sophomore races. They have the greatest chance of anyone to climb into the top two.

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. Once again, I’ll leave you with a bit of advice from someone much smarter than I:

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Hart	108	94	95+	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	151	6	95+	95+
3	Saranac	217			95+
4	Hanover-Horton	242			95+
5	Reed City	243			95+
6	St. Louis	251			95+
7	Pewamo-Westphalia	280			95+
8	Benzie Central	302			80
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306			65
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	308			66
11	Ithaca	309			70
12	Clare	335			17
13	Elk Rapids	391
14	Erie Mason	398
15	Caro	411
16	Leslie	424
17	Dansville	426
18	Saugatuck	428
19	Manchester	439
20	Jonesville	445
21	Bath	472
22	Buchanan	480
23	Sanford-Meridian	499
24	Kalamazoo Christian	540
25	Clinton	544
26	Stockbridge	548
27	Charyl Stockwell Academy	629
28	Algonac	662

All year, it’s been the Hart boys at the front. The Pirates’ reign began at Pete Moss, handily defeating a number of teams that are competing here and it has continued throughout the season, where they’ve dispatched any D3 team they’ve faced. Perhaps the closest comparison to the field here would be the D3 race at Portage. There, they were able to bring five runners to the finish faster than most could place their 3^rd or 4^th guys. Long story short, through five runners, there isn’t much weakness with this squad.

Traverse City St. Francis is likely the main competition or main chance at an upset. The Gladiators were 3^rd to Hart at Portage. They’ve been aided by the return of Josh Slocum and (I know it’s a fast course) just had their top five under 17:00 at East Jordan.

Saranac is listed highly here, a main reason being their strong 4^th and 5^th men, perhaps not apparent in smaller fields, though advantageous in larger fields. With that said, watch out for Grand Rapids Covenant Christian who placed four runners ahead of Saranac’s 2^nd guy over in Region 21.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Hart	3	8	15	34	48	76	89
Traverse City St. Francis	13	19	28	40	50	61	72

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Hart	3	11	26	60	108
Traverse City St. Francis	13	32	60	100	150

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Jones	Benzie Central	1.00
2	12	Parks Allen	Ithaca	3.18
3	12	Clayton Ackley	Hart	3.93
4	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	4.30
5	11	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.30
6	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	5.48
7	12	Rogan Melling	Hanover-Horton	12.54
8	12	Wyatt Dean	Hart	12.69
9	12	Jake O’Neil	Remus Chippewa Hills	13.12
10	10	Theodore Davis	Dansville	13.69
11	11	Brad White	Clare	13.76
12	11	Ben March	St. Louis	14.31
13	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	15.51
14	11	Drew Moore	Grayling	16.51
15	12	William Winter	Parchment	18.40
16	12	Pol Molins	Benzie Central	19.78
17	12	Austin Brown	Hanover-Horton	20.13
18	12	Seth Ackley	Hart	21.25
19	12	Connor Stefanovsky	Caro	21.62
20	10	August Rohde	Reed City	22.21
21	11	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	22.35
22	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	22.73
23	10	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	23.00
24	11	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.89
25	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	24.06
26	12	Josh Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	25.48
27	12	Cameron Pierce	Leslie	26.99
28	12	Jackson Ansel	Erie Mason	27.45
29	12	Nathan Kippnick	Manchester	27.93
30	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	28.65
31	11	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	32.00
32	11	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	33.19
33	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	34.00
34	11	Ryan Allen	Reed City	35.47
35	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	39.62
36	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	39.98
37	11	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	41.13
38	10	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	42.13
39	11	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	42.35
40	12	Collin Cook	Stockbridge	43.18
41	11	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	43.45
42	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	43.53
43	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	43.60
44	12	Caiden Kippnick	Manchester	45.15
45	11	Nic Porter	Clare	45.67
46	12	Sammy Schmidt	Dansville	46.18
47	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	51.03
48	10	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	53.52
49	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	54.15
50	11	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	54.42
51	11	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	55.29
52	12	Dade Allen	Benzie Central	55.37
53	12	Levi Maier	Chesaning	59.16
54	10	Max Stitt	Hart	59.38
55	12	Cole Yaros	New Lothrop	65.15
56	11	Paxton Hall	Lake City	65.26
57	10	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	66.21
58	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	67.08
59	10	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	68.33
60	11	Andrew Klaus	Clare	68.50
61	12	Caleb Bitely	Hart	68.64
62	12	Elliott Rodgers	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	69.57
63	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	70.36
64	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	70.42
65	9	Landen Styka	Ithaca	71.00
66	10	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	71.13
67	12	Rhett Reif	Quincy	71.82
68	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	75.19
69	12	Jonah Shephard	Sanford-Meridian	75.52
70	12	Brody Amthor	Onsted	75.55
71	9	Ben Gautsche	Union City	76.11
72	12	Dylan Marr	St. Louis	77.00
73	11	Carter Holmes	Bath	77.03
74	11	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	77.33
75	10	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	78.29
76	12	Logan Patrick	Manton	79.66
77	10	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	80.10
78	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	81.42
79	11	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	82.06
80	12	Judge Morgan	Traverse City St. Francis	82.93
81	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	83.81
82	9	Julian Walker	Algonac	84.08
83	11	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	84.76
84	12	Max Mader	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	84.82
85	12	Ashton Wells	Bronson	84.96
86	12	Ty Kailing	Reed City	86.87
87	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	88.08
88	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	90.30
89	10	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	90.83
90	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	91.88
91	9	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	92.79
92	10	Luke Skidmore	Bath	95.34
93	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	95.74
94	12	Raymond Rogers	Charyl Stockwell Academy	97.80
95	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	98.24
96	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	99.94
97	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	101.70
98	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	102.15
99	12	Caleb Pohl	Pewamo-Westphalia	103.04
100	10	Olin Kasperowicz	Traverse City St. Francis	103.38

Hunter Jones is the clear, unadulterated favorite. Since donning the Benzie Central outfit in 2019, he’s been undefeated in any Division 3 XC race, demoralizing fields from his first steps out of the box. With a victory, he joins the ranks of very few (Boyles, Olling, VanderKooi, I ain’t a history buff) in attaining four consecutive State Titles.

The question is who grabs the next few spots? Nathan Jenkins and Samuel Martini locked heads in Region 21, Jenkins pulling away in the last mile. Clayton Ackley has won over 75% of his races this year, the lone defeats coming against upper division competition, Jones, or Parks Allen. Really though, any of those four plus Collin Farmer could be slotted into those places and I wouldn’t be surprised.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	150	84	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	175	5	45	95+
3	Hart	176	8	42	95+
4	Jackson Lumen Christi	202		10	95+
5	Lansing Catholic	203		7	95+
6	Elk Rapids	214			95+
7	Caro	267			95+
8	Leslie	274			93
9	Benzie Central	292			85
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	296			61
11	Onsted	301			58
12	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	331			6
13	Blissfield	363
14	Kalamazoo Christian	381
15	Kent City	385
16	Charlevoix	411
17	Monroe St. Mary CC	414
18	Ithaca	436
19	Sandusky	438
20	Clinton	452
21	Remus Chippewa Hills	459
22	St. Louis	463
23	Schoolcraft	478
24	University Liggett	545
25	Buchanan	564
26	Stockbridge	693
27	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	733

Should be one of the better team battles of the day. Traverse City St. Francis has spent the entire year as the top-ranked girls team. The week to week rankings value depth, the projected scoring shows the Glads strength as well. St. Francis has the best chance of their 6^th and 7^th girls acting as displacers and they have the fastest fifth in the field. Once again, I feel the Portage field is the closest comparison to the State level. There, the TCSF girls won by 10+ points over a field that features a great number of top-10 squads.

The weekly rankings are derived from comparing across the entirety of the division, as if it were one giant team race. With 27 teams in a state field, teams with a bit “weaker” (a relative term, anyone that’s made it here is kicking butt) 3^rd-5^th runners aren’t ranked as low compared to scoring across 100+ teams. Essentially, Lansing Catholic and Hart have moved up for these projections. They haven’t just moved up because of the field structure, both have found their less heralded runners exhibiting massive improvement. The kind of which can move them up the leaderboards as points are to be had when you drop from mid-22’s to low-21’s in a month.

That said, Pewamo-Westphalia is a real contender, with their 2^nd through 6^th girls tightly packed, crossing the finish line at DeWitt only a minute apart, only six places apart, capturing the regional championship ahead of Lansing Catholic. With six strong runners, the Pirates have back up if one were to have an “off” day, but also they benefit from the added chance that one or more have incredible days.

Jackson Lumen Christi races as smart as anyone you’ll see, catching bodies in the last mile a norm for the Titans. Finally, at Region 28, Elk Rapids was able to place four girls under 20:00 (also ahead of TCSF’s 4^th).

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Traverse City St. Francis	9	12	29	46	55	65	85
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	25	29	44	62	71	92
Hart	1	5	41	60	69	78	92
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	27	44	58	67	86	99
Lansing Catholic	3	6	12	81	101	118	147
Elk Rapids	13	35	42	51	73	84	93

You may notice some places from different teams are the same. These are average places from each team’s respective runners, not a set in stone list.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Traverse City St. Francis	9	21	49	95	150
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	40	69	113	175
Hart	1	6	47	107	176
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	33	77	135	202
Lansing Catholic	3	9	21	103	203
Elk Rapids	13	48	91	141	214

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.02
2	10	Emmry Ross	Onsted	3.49
3	12	CC Jones	Lansing Catholic	4.09
4	11	Alyson Enns	Hart	4.65
5	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	5.06
6	12	Hannah Pricco	Lansing Catholic	5.43
7	11	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.84
8	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.33
9	12	Sophia Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	10.84
10	10	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	11.82
11	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	12.97
12	11	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	13.24
13	11	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	13.28
14	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	14.76
15	9	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	15.04
16	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	16.02
17	11	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	16.74
18	10	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	18.11
19	10	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	18.53
20	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.35
21	12	Kara Terakedis	Onsted	22.37
22	11	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	22.41
23	9	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.90
24	12	Ava Maginity	Boyne City	22.97
25	9	Hope Miller	Blissfield	25.83
26	11	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	26.14
27	12	Ellymae McCoy	Reese	26.33
28	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	26.66
29	11	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	32.93
30	11	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	34.15
31	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	35.33
32	10	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	36.45
33	9	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	36.50
34	10	Kaya Vrable	Caro	36.52
35	12	Abby Arens	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.15
36	9	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	37.65
37	12	Ella Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.95
38	10	Kerith Short	University Liggett	39.11
39	10	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	39.78
40	10	Grace Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	39.95
41	11	Laina Sladics	Charlevoix	41.59
42	10	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	44.01
43	11	Paige Herron	Caro	48.36
44	11	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	49.03
45	12	Emma Soelberg	Shelby	49.17
46	10	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	49.27
47	12	Allie Koch	Manchester	49.87
48	11	Ava Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	53.85
49	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	54.23
50	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	55.30
51	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.29
52	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.68
53	11	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	57.89
54	10	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	59.97
55	9	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	59.99
56	11	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	60.45
57	9	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	60.47
58	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	61.21
59	12	Ashley Shindorf	Vassar	61.72
60	11	Kendall Standfest	Elk Rapids	62.34
61	10	Hunter Schellenbarger	Elk Rapids	64.68
62	11	Hayden Hengesbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.15
63	10	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	66.09
64	12	Bianca Delogu	Benzie Central	66.58
65	10	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	70.59
66	9	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	70.73
67	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	71.39
68	9	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	71.62
69	12	Hope Wilkes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	72.46
70	12	Lauren Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	73.02
71	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	73.95
72	12	Nora Smoes	Reed City	74.75
73	12	Penelope Griffioen	University Liggett	75.87
74	9	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	78.82
75	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	78.97
76	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	79.70
77	11	Rylee Duffing	Traverse City St. Francis	81.06
78	12	Allysen Jansen	Sandusky	81.57
79	12	Chloe Colton	Manton	82.00
80	12	Mari Cueto	Blissfield	83.48
81	11	Samantha Coots	Clinton	83.65
82	11	Faith Swenor	Caro	83.98
83	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	84.66
84	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	84.67
85	11	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	84.99
86	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	85.54
87	11	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	86.82
88	11	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	89.43
89	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	89.60
90	10	Makenzie Kreger	Sandusky	89.69
91	12	Gabrielle Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	90.78
92	11	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	91.20
93	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	92.44
94	10	Emma Wittenbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	93.75
95	12	Aaliyah Cota	Tawas	95.24
96	9	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	95.47
97	10	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	97.30
98	12	Savanna Owens	Hart	98.86
99	12	Hadley Saylor	Manton	101.74
100	12	Elizabeth Smith	Sanford-Meridian	102.37

Jessica Jazwinski has spent all year as the top-ranked girl in Division 3 and for good reason. She’s run at difficult courses (Chippewa Hills) and she’s run fast times (17:15) in her season full of victories. Her aggressive style, ripping it straight from the gun has paid off, in the past six weeks, any opportunity she’s truly raced has ended with a sub-18 time.

As with the boys, any one of the next six could grab 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, and I wouldn’t be shocked. Emmry Ross is the defending 400m state champ, undefeated on the year, has dropped nearly 2 minutes from her freshman best. Her and Alyson Enns are the only two girls to have gone sub-18 this fall. Madison Osterberg and Hannah Pricco are also blessed with 400m speed, both have also been All-State each time they’ve competed. CC Jones and Lila Volkers have shown championship mettle, CC capturing the Greater Lansing crown and Lila shredded the Allendale course in 18:03 en route to a regional victory. All six have had similar ratings throughout the year.