Boys
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Girls
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Division 3 State Projections
Author: mixcspeedratings
An Early Look: Region 19-3
Teams
Boyne City
Charlevoix
East Jordan
Elk Rapids
Grayling
Harbor Springs
Houghton Lake
Kalkaska
Mancelona
Oscoda
Roscommon
Tawas
Traverse City St. Francis
Boys
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Ranked Teams
Traverse City St. Francis (1), Charlevoix (8), Harbor Springs (14), Roscommon (19)
Highest Rated Seniors
Incoming senior went through a major improvement last fall (and winter, too). In the late season, went on a streak of sub-17 performances, including an 11th place at Northern Michigan and 6th place at Regionals. Continued to show progress during the winter, dropping his 1600m PR from 4:34 to 4:30.
Xander earned a massive PR at Regionals last year, his 16:31 (4th place) a good 18 sec. better than his previous best. He doubled that up with his first All-State finish a week later.
Evan’s State Meet leaves him a little further back than the previous two, but he’s shown he’s capable of running with or even being ahead of them. 7th at Northern Michigan and 5th at Regionals. He’s also gone through improvement in the past two years, dropping 40+ seconds in both seasons.
Career Achievement
I’m breaking the trend and putting both of these guys here because they are that interchangeable. They finished a spot away from each other at both LMC (top-3), Regionals (top-3), and State (top-15). Their PRs are 2 sec. apart (16:18/16:20), and it’ll undoubtedly be a battle between them for the next two years.
Anyone Else?
I think Sam would like re-do on his championship season, and his training over both the winter (1600m, 4:35) and this summer indicates that. For a sophomore he did run some impressive times, including a 17:04 at Bluejay.
I always prefer to highlight underclassmen in these spots, and runners such as Josh make an easy selection. Without his regional performance, one would say Josh had a very good year. Sub-18 on multiple occasions, top-100 at State. With his regional performance (17:01, 14th place), St. Francis becomes even more formidable.
Girls
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Ranked Teams
Charlevoix (10), Traverse City St. Francis (13), Harbor Springs (14), Roscommon (21), Boyne City (25)
Highest Rated Seniors
Alayna has been in the mix in all three of her years, very tough to consistently be this good. In each season, she’s broken 20:00, been in the top-10 at Regionals, and top-50 at State. Last year was also her highest finish at Northern Michigan, a 14th place.
Charlevoix’s girls will benefit from their ability to run as a pack, especially their top 4. Megan has been in big races throughout her career and has performed admirably. Last year, she ran her best both in time and finish at the end, with a 20:23 on an increasingly tough MIS course, that time helping her reach her lowest spot yet, 51st.
As with the previous two, Ella has been right there in her career. All-Region each time out and consistently in the 20:00’s at the end of each season. In 2019, she had her lowest places at both Northern Michigan (31st) and State (70th).
Career Achievement
Maye underwent an extreme transformation, especially late in the season. Beginning with a 6th place finish at Northern Michigan (19:09), she went on a late season tear. 3rd at Regionals and then 8th at State, all in the 19:0x range. On average, these times were 50+ seconds lower than her freshman year.
Anyone Else?
Sophia flashed her potential on quite a few occasions last season. She showed she can be speedy, evidenced by an 18:45 opener at Pete Moss. She showed she can place high at important meets, examples being a 2nd place finish at Portage and 12th place at MIS.
Ava shocked the world here last year at Regionals. Projected 3rd going in, she ran away with the crown, setting a 40+ second PR in the process. The following week, she nabbed a 7th place finish at State.
All freshman in this section just makes one salivate at the competition in this area in the coming years. Early in the season, Anna didn’t necessarily run as fast as the previous two, but she sure did late. She broke 20:00 at Northern Michigan, then continued that momentum into 6th and 28th place finishes at Regional/State.
An Early Look: Region 20-3
Teams
Benzie Central
Evart
Farwell
Harrison
Hart
Hesperia
Lake City
LeRoy Pine River
Manistee
Manton
Mason County Central
McBain
Morley Stanwood
Reed City
Shelby
Boys
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Ranked Teams
Hart (2), Manistee (7), McBain (11), Benzie Central (15)
Highest Rated Seniors
Alex’s 2019 track season was cut short, but he was able to bounce back in a major way. He didn’t improve on his personal best, but he did cut down places in other races. He captured the crown in the Oceana County Meet and ended the season with his first top-10 finish at MIS. And I should mention that he’s been sub-16 in each of the past two years.
Kinkade has gone from a kid who couldn’t break 20:00 as a freshman to a successful runner who spent much time in the 17’s as a junior. His first race under the barrier was at Carson City, a 14th place effort. Over the next month, he was able to gradually knock that PR down to a 17:00. He finished 11th at the regional here, much lower than his 49th and 54th place finishes the previous two seasons.
In each of his two XC seasons, Connor has been able to run his best at the end of the year. Benzies usually produces many PRs and he has come through in both years with 16:2x efforts. The All-State honor has escaped him, but if he runs to his capabilities as he’s displayed here, it’s within his wheelhouse.
Career Achievement
Ransom racked up a number of victories last season in the Lakes 8 Conference. He was victorious at both jamborees and the championship race. He took that to Regionals, where he placed in the top-10 for the first time ever.
Anyone Else?
Following an emotional high of a PR, it’s tough to come back the next week and replicate that performance. Wesley’s run at the State Meet showed he’s capable of embracing his success. His 17:06 at MIS was another sub-17 equivalent, a major improvement from his underclass years spent in the 19’s.
Noah had a successful season that perhaps didn’t manifest at MIS. But one race does not a season make. Victories at all three of the conference jamborees, Buckley, Dwayne Rau, and Late Season Warrior. Also, a 7th place finish and 30 sec. personal best at Regionals.
Jayce has embraced the gradual progress that many of us see in running. He had his first taste of sub-18 at the 2018 Regional meet, then was able to considerably lower that mark this past fall. Two consecutive individual qualifiers for him.
Girls
Team Projections
Individual Projections
Ranked Teams
Hart (1), Benzie Central (5), McBain (7), Reed City (14), Manton (18)
Highest Rated Seniors
Abbigail has a track record of progress that should continue into 2020. Each year of HS, she’s accomplished more and more. As a freshman, it was a sub-20, the next year, dropping that time by 25+ seconds. As a junior, she nabbed her first All-State finish. In track, she concentrates more on mid-distance, with PRs of 2:24/5:17.
When you’re an Ackley and running at Hart, your success might be ignored. Savannah’s should not. She’s been top-10 in Division 3 all throughout HS and has spent considerable time in the 18’s. Her 2019 season may not have been as “fast” as previous years, but she placed 4th at MIS, her best finish yet. She was also able to run 5:12 this spring, a 2 second PR.
Lynae has been right there with Savannah, an integral part of Hart’s success. She’s been All-State all three years as well, the final two of those in the top-15. She was able to run her best race of the season here at Benzie, nearly breaking her 18:41 PR.
Career Achievement
Although a 38 sec. drop in her personal best may seem par for the course, Cierra’s championship was arguably her best yet. A win in the final NWC jamboree was one in a string of 6 consecutive sub-20 races. The last of which was her first All-State honor.
Anyone Else?
With her sister Klaudia off to GVSU (one of the better freshmen in the GLIAC too), Maggie stepped up her performance. Time-wise, she dropped into the 19’s, both at Regional and State. The State Meet performance had to be extra sweet, as she ran 70+ seconds faster than in 2018.
Miranda has been an accomplished MS runner with results over all distances. She finished 17th at Portage in a sub-10 (2500m) effort and 3rd at Bluejay in 12:43.
Mylie is an example of my end goal here. This winter, she embraced the ratings and used them as motivation for her training. This spring, she was able to run 18:45 in a time trial, a show of the direct relationship of hard work and results. For some, that process takes longer, for her, that immediate response to a stimulus speaks to her potential in this sport.
