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Real quick, just a comparison of times from runners that ran at MIS and ran at various meets throughout the year. Kept the samples above 20 for each gender. This is not the way the ratings are generated, the ratings tend to use athletes ranging a bit further back than just the state qualifiers. But it should give a decent idea of how meets and courses ran throughout the year.

Positive numbers mean a course ran faster than MIS.
Negative numbers mean a course ran slower than MIS.

The adjustment for MIS will range from +17 to +25. The course, as always, seemed to run a little slower as the day went on. Usually, this is because of the course deteriorating, but my guess this year is that athletes’ times were affected by the increased temperature throughout the day.

Girls

Meet	Date	Course	Sample	Girls Adjustment to MIS
Region 19	28-Oct	East Jordan Community Park	28	38
Region 29	28-Oct	Buckley HS	27	31
OK Red Conference	19-Oct	Riverside Park	25	26
Region 31	28-Oct	Allendale HS	28	20
Region 28	28-Oct	East Jordan Community Park	27	20
OK White Championship	18-Oct	Riverside Park	23	18
Region 18	28-Oct	Lake Erie	27	17
Region 35	28-Oct	Wagener County Park	26	16
Northern Mich. MOC	21-Oct	Veterans Serving Veterans Park	46	16
BNC Championship	17-Oct	Traverse City Central HS	23	15
Region 1	28-Oct	Allendale HS	28	15
Allendale Falcon	30-Sep	Allendale HS	49	14
SEC Red 2	27-Sep	Saline HS	25	14
Region 13	28-Oct	Portage West	25	11
Ubly	11-Oct	Ubly HS	40	10
Region 11	28-Oct	Allendale HS	27	6
Macomb County	14-Oct	Eastwood Beach	44	6
Stockbridge	30-Sep	Stockbridge HS	49	4
TVC Overall	17-Oct	Taymouth Twp. Park	32	4
Region 5	28-Oct	Lake Erie	27	4
Chargers Autumn Sunrise	23-Sep	Covenant Christian HS	33	1
Region 22	28-Oct	Portage West	27	1
Christian Comet	21-Oct	Kalamazoo Christian Elementary	42	0
Region 6	28-Oct	Willow	29	0
Region 21	28-Oct	Allendale HS	26	-1
Otsego Bulldog	30-Sep	Otsego HS	91	-2
MAC Championship	21-Oct	Metro Beach	41	-5
Wagener Park	30-Sep	Wagener County Park	39	-5
Region 3	27-Oct	Portage West MS	29	-6
Region 16	28-Oct	Springfield Oaks	28	-8
Region 8	27-Oct	Clintonwood Park	33	-9
Portage	7-Oct	Portage West MS	417	-10
CMAC 3	18-Oct	Fish Creek Sportsman’s Club	24	-10
Region 15	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	28	-11
Region 27	28-Oct	Willow	28	-12
Region 32	27-Oct	Portage West MS	26	-13
Lakeview	9-Sep	Riverside Elementary	32	-13
Region 2	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	27	-13
Greater Flint	7-Oct	Cummings Center	46	-15
Bluejay	30-Sep	Shepherd HS	288	-15
Cougar Falcon	23-Sep	South Christian HS	64	-19
Region 4	28-Oct	Springfield Oaks	28	-20
Wayne County	7-Oct	Willow	40	-20
Region 12	28-Oct	South Christian HS	28	-20
Thumb Area	21-Oct	Caro GC	36	-20
Cascades Conference	18-Oct	Sharp Park	22	-20
Region 10	27-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	29	-21
Hansons	30-Sep	Freedom Hill	49	-21
Ottawa Hills	15-Sep	Riverside Park	94	-22
Mel Hall	21-Oct	Spring Lake HS	23	-24
Jackson	23-Sep	Sharp Park	167	-24
Berrien County	30-Sep	Lake Township Park	23	-25
CHSL C/D Championship	20-Oct	Willow	26	-25
Region 25	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	27	-25
Cadillac	23-Sep	Veterans Serving Veterans Park	86	-26
Northern Michigan Championship	21-Oct	Otsego Club	24	-27
Red Devil	30-Aug	East Jordan Community Park	36	-27
Region 9	27-Oct	Anchor Bay HS	28	-28
Region 30	28-Oct	Chip Hills HS	28	-30
MIAC Championship	17-Oct	Nankin Mills	30	-31
Sparta	16-Sep	Fruit Ridge Hayrides	45	-32
Larry Steeb	21-Oct	Whitmore Lake HS	25	-33
SEC Championship	19-Oct	Hudson Mills (South)	44	-33
Region 14	27-Oct	DeWitt HS	27	-34
Huron	16-Sep	Willow	51	-34
Hudson Booster	7-Oct	Hudson HS	46	-35
LMC Championship	10-Oct	Boyne Highlands	25	-35
Jefferson	23-Sep	Sterling State Park	39	-35
SW Rustbuster	30-Aug	Warner Camp	35	-37
SAC Championship	12-Oct	Wayland MS	46	-39
Freeland Falcon	14-Oct	Freeland XC Course	28	-40
Gabriel Richard	14-Oct	Hudson Mills (South)	93	-40
DeWitt	30-Sep	DeWitt HS	24	-41
KLAA Conference	20-Oct	Howell HS	28	-41
Greater Lansing	14-Oct	Ledge Meadows GC	81	-42
Bear Country	9-Sep	Buckley HS	34	-42
John Bruder Classic	7-Sep	Shepherd HS	97	-42
Region 33	27-Oct	Happy Acres	27	-43
Region 23	27-Oct	Sharp Park	27	-44
Ramblin’ Rock	9-Sep	Willow	51	-44
CSAA Conference	17-Oct	Central Montcalm HS	24	-44
Late Season Warrior	21-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	42	-45
Region 36	27-Oct	Memorial Park (RO)	28	-46
Muskrat Classic	9-Sep	Eastwood Beach	40	-46
Oiler	1-Sep	Mt. Pleasant XC Course	22	-46
Saranac	30-Aug	Saranac HS	34	-47
Region 34	27-Oct	Sharp Park	25	-48
Bredeweg	9-Sep	Macatawa Bay MS	48	-49
Region 20	27-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	28	-49
Budd Cicciarelli	31-Aug	Eastwood Beach	27	-50
Region 17	27-Oct	Anchor Bay HS	27	-50
Lake St. Clair Early Bird	30-Aug	Metro Beach	25	-50
Region 24	27-Oct	DeWitt HS	26	-51
Bath	9-Sep	Bath MS	69	-51
Spartan	15-Sep	Forest Akers	247	-55
Northwood	9-Sep	Fisher Trails	43	-60
Bangor	23-Sep	Bangor HS	28	-60
Pete Moss	25-Aug	Benzie Central HS	94	-60
Lamplighter	18-Aug	Ford Field	126	-62
Holly	16-Sep	Springfield Oaks	169	-65
Portage Early Bird	18-Aug	Portage West MS	48	-67
Oakland County	7-Oct	Possum Hollow	95	-68
Region 7	27-Oct	Possum Hollow	28	-69
Marauder	6-Sep	Uncle John’s	30	-70
Under the Lights v2	25-Aug	South Christian HS	144	-71
Lenawee County	14-Oct	Gerber Hill Park	39	-72
Mott Fall Classic	22-Sep	Hess Hathaway	23	-73
Under the Lights	18-Aug	St. Johns MS	83	-76
Petoskey	23-Sep	Petoskey MS	25	-84
Early Season Warrior	29-Aug	Chippewa Hills HS	25	-85
OCS Small School	7-Sep	Oakland Christian HS	26	-86
Averill	9-Sep	Possum Hollow	42	-89
Michigan Catholic	26-Aug	St. Francis Retreat Center	66	-89
Linden Classic	23-Sep	Linden MS	32	-95
Central Montcalm Hornet	9-Sep	Central Montcalm HS	28	-97
Lenawee County Preview	18-Aug	Tecumseh HS	34	-98
Mustang	29-Aug	Cass Benton	27	-101
Region 26	27-Oct	Possum Hollow	27	-101
Corunna Early Bird	29-Aug	Shiawasee County Fairgrounds	56	-105
Kalamazoo	30-Aug	Linden Grove MS	24	-108
Concord	30-Aug	Concord HS	25	-109
Milford	31-Aug	Possum Hollow	56	-120
Evart Wildcat	16-Sep	Springhill Camps	20	-136
Springport	6-Sep	Springport HS	26	-144
Bridgman	22-Aug	Lake Township Park	20	-182

Boys

Meet	Date	Course	Sample	Boys Adjustment to MIS
Region 29	28-Oct	Buckley HS	28	43
Region 19	28-Oct	East Jordan Community Park	27	29
Region 35	28-Oct	Wagener County Park	29	27
Region 11	28-Oct	Allendale HS	27	11
Region 18	28-Oct	Lake Erie	26	10
Region 28	28-Oct	East Jordan Community Park	27	10
OK Red Conference	19-Oct	Riverside Park	26	10
SEC Red 2	27-Sep	Saline HS	31	10
Region 31	28-Oct	Allendale HS	28	9
BNC Championship	17-Oct	Traverse City Central HS	22	8
Northern Mich. MOC	21-Oct	Veterans Serving Veterans Park	40	8
Region 1	28-Oct	Allendale HS	28	7
Stockbridge	30-Sep	Stockbridge HS	59	7
MAC Championship	21-Oct	Metro Beach	41	6
Region 13	28-Oct	Portage West	28	5
Region 5	28-Oct	Lake Erie	24	4
TVC Overall	17-Oct	Taymouth Twp. Park	44	4
Region 8	27-Oct	Clintonwood Park	27	4
CMAC 3	18-Oct	Fish Creek Sportsman’s Club	30	3
Bear Country	9-Sep	Buckley HS	32	3
Region 21	28-Oct	Allendale HS	28	2
Macomb County	14-Oct	Eastwood Beach	38	2
Region 2	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	28	2
Chargers Autumn Sunrise	23-Sep	Covenant Christian HS	23	1
Region 22	28-Oct	Portage West	29	1
Allendale Falcon	30-Sep	Allendale HS	70	0
Christian Comet	21-Oct	Kalamazoo Christian Elementary	25	-2
OK White Championship	18-Oct	Riverside Park	22	-2
Region 6	28-Oct	Willow	35	-3
Region 30	28-Oct	Chip Hills HS	29	-4
Region 15	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	28	-4
Otsego Bulldog	30-Sep	Otsego HS	75	-4
Region 3	27-Oct	Portage West MS	28	-4
Cougar Falcon	23-Sep	South Christian HS	61	-5
Region 27	28-Oct	Willow	28	-6
Portage	7-Oct	Portage West MS	438	-6
Bluejay	30-Sep	Shepherd HS	299	-6
Late Season Warrior	21-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	42	-7
Ubly	11-Oct	Ubly HS	31	-7
Region 25	27-Oct	Shepherd HS	28	-8
Greater Flint	7-Oct	Cummings Center	36	-8
Thumb Area	21-Oct	Caro GC	31	-9
Sparta	16-Sep	Fruit Ridge Hayrides	58	-9
Wagener Park	30-Sep	Wagener County Park	32	-10
Lakeview	9-Sep	Riverside Elementary	40	-11
Ottawa Hills	15-Sep	Riverside Park	99	-11
Cascades Conference	18-Oct	Sharp Park	31	-11
Oiler	1-Sep	Mt. Pleasant XC Course	26	-11
Region 16	28-Oct	Springfield Oaks	25	-12
Northern Michigan Championship	21-Oct	Otsego Club	27	-13
Region 32	27-Oct	Portage West MS	27	-14
Region 4	28-Oct	Springfield Oaks	27	-14
Hansons	30-Sep	Freedom Hill	48	-14
Red Devil	30-Aug	East Jordan Community Park	27	-15
Region 34	27-Oct	Sharp Park	26	-15
DeWitt	30-Sep	DeWitt HS	43	-17
Region 20	27-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	27	-17
CHSL C/D Championship	20-Oct	Willow	33	-18
Wayne County	7-Oct	Willow	48	-18
Jackson	23-Sep	Sharp Park	192	-18
Saranac	30-Aug	Saranac HS	38	-19
Berrien County	30-Sep	Lake Township Park	21	-19
CSAA Conference	17-Oct	Central Montcalm HS	24	-21
Cadillac	23-Sep	Veteran Serving Veterans Park	67	-21
SW Rustbuster	30-Aug	Warner Camp	34	-21
Region 14	27-Oct	DeWitt HS	27	-22
LMC Championship	10-Oct	Boyne Highlands	29	-22
Muskrat Classic	9-Sep	Eastwood Beach	56	-23
Region 12	28-Oct	South Christian HS	27	-23
Region 10	27-Oct	Chippewa Hills HS	28	-24
Mel Hall	21-Oct	Spring Lake HS	23	-25
Region 23	27-Oct	Sharp Park	27	-26
Hudson Booster	7-Oct	Hudson HS	43	-26
Ramblin’ Rock	9-Sep	Willow	56	-26
SEC Championship	19-Oct	Hudson Mills (South)	53	-31
Pete Moss	26-Aug	Benzie Central HS	82	-31
MIAC Championship	17-Oct	Nankin Mills	23	-31
Region 24	27-Oct	DeWitt HS	28	-33
Freeland Falcon	14-Oct	Freeland XC Course	25	-34
Huron	16-Sep	Willow	34	-34
John Bruder Classic	7-Sep	Shepherd HS	82	-35
Bredeweg	9-Sep	Macatawa Bay MS	43	-35
Bath	9-Sep	Bath MS	91	-35
Region 17	27-Oct	Anchor Bay HS	25	-36
Jefferson	23-Sep	Sterling State Park	33	-36
Region 9	27-Oct	Anchor Bay HS	27	-36
Region 36	27-Oct	Memorial Park (RO)	29	-37
Greater Lansing	14-Oct	Ledge Meadows GC	76	-38
Budd Cicciarelli	31-Aug	Eastwood Beach	22	-39
Spartan	15-Sep	Forest Akers	232	-40
Central Montcalm Hornet	9-Sep	Central Montcalm HS	26	-42
SAC Championship	12-Oct	Wayland MS	25	-42
Region 33	27-Oct	Happy Acres	27	-43
Northwood	9-Sep	Fisher Trails	52	-43
Under the Lights v2	25-Aug	South Christian HS	161	-43
Gabriel Richard	14-Oct	Hudson Mills (South)	132	-44
Bangor	23-Sep	Bangor HS	25	-46
KLAA Conference	20-Oct	Howell HS	42	-46
Lamplighter	18-Aug	Ford Field	92	-46
Mott Fall Classic	22-Sep	Hess Hathaway	26	-48
Lenawee County	14-Oct	Gerber Hill Park	27	-49
Holly	16-Sep	Springfield Oaks	209	-50
Petoskey	23-Sep	Petoskey MS	24	-51
Larry Steeb	21-Oct	Whitmore Lake HS	26	-54
Under the Lights	18-Aug	St. Johns MS	79	-54
Evart Wildcat	16-Sep	Springhill Camps	25	-55
Lake St. Clair Early Bird	30-Aug	Metro Beach	20	-57
Region 7	27-Oct	Possum Hollow	28	-58
Oakland County	7-Oct	Possum Hollow	64	-60
Mustang	29-Aug	Cass Benton	36	-63
Kalamazoo	30-Aug	Linden Grove MS	24	-64
Marauder	6-Sep	Uncle John’s	46	-66
Region 26	27-Oct	Possum Hollow	28	-67
Averill	9-Sep	Possum Hollow	43	-67
Michigan Catholic	26-Aug	St. Francis Retreat Center	57	-67
OCS Small School	7-Sep	Oakland Christian HS	26	-68
Linden Classic	23-Sep	Linden MS	28	-70
Early Season Warrior	22-Aug	Chippewa Hills HS	33	-73
Portage Early Bird	18-Aug	Portage West MS	22	-75
Lenawee County Preview	18-Aug	Tecumseh HS	23	-75
Concord	30-Aug	Concord HS	30	-77
Corunna Early Bird	29-Aug	Shiawasee County Fairgrounds	49	-78
Springport	6-Sep	Springport HS	35	-83
Milford	31-Aug	Possum Hollow	57	-87
Bridgman	22-Aug	Lake Township Park	22	-98

Writing and providing stats about our Lower Peninsula Finals will probably use a bit different path than in previous years. In the past, I’ve struggled with motivation after 5 month journey of non-stop work (on top of a full-time job, not complaining, but I did get asked multiple times over the past week if THIS is my full-time job), so I thought I might attack these reviews and ratings from a different angle.

Projections vs. REALITY. Overall, the projections nabbed all eight winners, the top-two in six divisions, the top-three in four divisions. For all teams, they were the best they’ve ever been for Divisions 2 & 3, decent for Division 4, then horrific for Divsion 1.

Here’s a look at how the projected places and scores matched up vs. reality.

Division 4 Girls

Division 4 Boys

Division 3 Girls

Division 3 Boys

Division 2 Girls

Division 2 Boys

Division 1 Girls

Division 1 Boys

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

Romeo came into the year as the pre-season favorite, added a All-State caliber transfer, has stayed healthy, and their freshman stud has risen to every moment. Even without the addition of Deskins, they’d be the favorite here. Coach Buslepp has figured out the formula for MIS success, evidenced by their boys win in 2020 and last year, the 2nd place finish from these girls.

Second? Holland West Ottawa is impossible to predict. Yes, the Panthers have been steadily rising, but what can we expect from Helen Sachs? These ratings are great at taking a season’s worth of results and figuring out where someone places, they’re not great at taking one regional race and projecting from there. Either way, this squad has handled the pressure of repeating with grace. Ann Arbor Pioneer has been there all year as well, and they’re another team with big race experience. Whether that’s track nationals or the three-peat from 2019-2021, these girls have been through it all.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	12	Selma Anderson	GR Ottawa Hills	2.2
3	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	3.6
4	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	6.3
5	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	6.5
6	11	Lucy Cook	Rochester	8.6
7	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	9.0
8	12	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	10.0
9	11	Cassie Garcia	Northville	11.0
10	12	Morgan Brown	Livonia Churchill	11.4
11	12	Katie Watkins	Midland Dow	11.6
12	10	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	14.2
13	12	Ella Christensen	Northville	14.7
14	11	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	16.5
15	11	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	19.8
16	12	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	21.2
17	10	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	21.4
18	12	Laney Alig	Saline	21.8
19	10	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	23.2
20	11	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	23.4
21	12	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	25.1
22	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	25.5
23	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	28.2
24	9	Anyla Robinson	Detroit Cass Tech	31.3
25	11	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	31.4
26	12	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	31.9
27	12	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	33.7
28	11	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	34.5
29	12	Braydee Elling	Oxford	36.9
30	11	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	37.3
31	11	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	37.9
32	12	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	38.1
33	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	38.5
34	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	40.6
35	11	Elle Bissett	Brighton	40.9
36	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	41.2
37	12	Hannah DeRoeck	Lake Orion	44.1
38	12	Izzy Fazio	Forest Hills Northern	45.2
39	10	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	45.9
40	11	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	46.0
41	11	Lauren Walker	Holt	46.7
42	12	Paige McArdle	Davison	47.5
43	11	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	47.8
44	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	47.8
45	12	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	49.4
46	11	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	51.6
47	12	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	52.1
48	10	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	52.3
49	11	Corynn Gady	Saline	52.4
50	11	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	52.8
51	10	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	53.4
52	12	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	54.3
53	11	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	54.4
54	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	54.6
55	11	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	58.6
56	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	59.4
57	9	Daisy Cox	Rockford	60.5
58	10	Lillian Schlack	Saline	60.9
59	11	Molly Baracco	Farmington	64.8
60	10	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	65.3
61	12	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	66.1
62	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	66.4
63	10	Abby Veit	TC West	66.9
64	9	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	67.2
65	12	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	70.0
66	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	71.0
67	11	Anna Sybenga	Forest Hills Central	73.1
68	9	Ava Goodman	Hartland	74.1
69	12	Katie Hume	Ann Arbor Pioneer	76.3
70	12	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	77.3
71	9	Becca van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	78.3
72	12	Ava King	TC West	78.4
73	12	Nina Frost	Fenton	78.5
74	11	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	78.9
75	9	Emma Brown	Utica	80.7
76	11	Emma Smith	Rockford	83.0
77	11	Clare Mathison	Forest Hills Central	83.6
78	10	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	83.7
79	11	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	84.1
80	10	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	85.3
81	12	Sydney Smith	Davison	86.5
82	12	Emilee Rudlaff	Kalamazoo Central	86.7
83	9	Tessa Mascari	TC West	88.3
84	9	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	89.8
85	10	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	90.4
86	11	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	90.8
87	10	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	91.1
88	10	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	91.7
89	9	Colette Lozo	Northville	92.4
90	11	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	93.0
91	10	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	93.8
92	9	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	94.1
93	10	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	94.5
94	10	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	96.0
95	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	96.2
96	11	Catherine Steele	Farmington	96.7
97	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos	98.7
98	9	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	99.9
99	12	Nicole Mays	Okemos	100.5
100	11	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	101.0

The only question is the course record. Lansing Catholic’s Olivia Theis ran a 16:52 in 2016, which is the official course record. In 2009, Megan Goethals ran what may be the most impressive performance, a 16:54 with wind blasting into your face down the home stretch (speed rating of 188.7). Rachel Forsyth has matched that number or gone above it in these past two races. Conditions appear to be optimal, don’t be shocked if sub-16:30 is in the cards.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

These two KLAA squads have been at it all year. Northville vs. Brighton. The scorecard is tied, with one rubber match. The Bulldogs have captured the major invites: Spartan and Portage, placing seven of front of Northville’s third at Portage, four in front at Spartan. In local competition, the Mustangs have come out victorious, splitting up that Brighton pack in their tri and at their conference championships. Look for this: both the bubble and the time gap. If there’s a significant amount of space between each 5th finisher, the advantage tilts to Brighton. If Northville’s boys stick to Brighton like glue, advantage towards the Mustangs. There’s been some distinctly different strategy as well, with Brighton taking it out harder and holding on, Northville picking off bodies as the race wears on.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	2.4
2	12	Brendan Herger	Northville	5.2
3	12	Aiden Moore	BC Lakeview	5.8
4	12	Thomas Westphal	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	6.2
5	12	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	6.4
6	11	Seth Conner	Jenison	7.7
7	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	7.9
8	11	Ethan Powell	Northville	8.6
9	9	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.6
10	12	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	12.1
11	12	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	13.1
12	10	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	13.3
13	11	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	13.5
14	12	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.5
15	12	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	16.3
16	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	17.3
17	12	Tyler Langley	Brighton	18.3
18	12	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	18.9
19	11	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	21.2
20	11	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	22.3
21	12	Iain Forrest	Davison	24.1
22	12	Mitchell Clark	Canton	25.6
23	9	Jack MacGregor	Howell	25.7
24	10	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	25.7
25	12	Truman Johnson	Saline	25.9
26	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	27.5
27	12	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	28.9
28	10	Harper Wesley	Utica	29.7
29	12	Liam Walters	GR Ottawa Hills	32.2
30	12	Luke Campbell	Brighton	32.5
31	12	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32.7
32	11	Mason Lucas	Jenison	38.0
33	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	40.4
34	10	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	43.0
35	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	45.4
36	12	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	45.6
37	12	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	45.6
38	12	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	46.1
39	11	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	47.8
40	12	Willem DeGood	TC West	48.2
41	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	48.2
42	12	Oliver Moss	Berkley	49.3
43	11	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	50.5
44	12	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	51.1
45	11	Malcolm Spiegle	Livonia Churchill	53.4
46	11	James Cusick	Oxford	54.3
47	11	Tyler Brock	Brighton	54.5
48	11	Carter Livermore	Grandville	54.8
49	12	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	56.8
50	11	Brady Millington	Brighton	58.4
51	9	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	59.8
52	12	Dylan Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	61.7
53	12	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	65.1
54	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	65.3
55	9	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	66.8
56	9	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	66.8
57	12	Colin MacGregor	Midland Dow	67.1
58	11	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	67.3
59	11	Nick Barretto	Northville	67.3
60	10	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	68.2
61	12	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	68.2
62	12	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	68.6
63	12	Louis D’Souza	Troy	68.8
64	11	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	69.2
65	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	69.9
66	11	Adam Dicken	Canton	72.7
67	11	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	73.4
68	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	73.5
69	12	Eric Overdier	Ann Arbor Pioneer	74.9
70	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos	75.2
71	11	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	75.8
72	12	Braxton Sipes	Royal Oak	75.8
73	11	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	76.3
74	11	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	79.7
75	12	Jack DeWaele	Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley	80.9
76	11	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	81.1
77	12	Brandon Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	83.2
78	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	83.8
79	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	85.2
80	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	86.8
81	11	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	88.0
82	11	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	88.1
83	10	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	90.5
84	10	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	91.8
85	10	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	92.9
86	10	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	93.2
87	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	94.8
88	11	Napolean Lino	Rochester	95.2
89	10	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	95.2
90	10	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	96.5
91	11	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	97.3
92	12	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	98.9
93	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	100.0
94	11	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	101.7
95	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	103.2
96	10	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	104.4
97	9	Liam Wierzba	TC West	105.1
98	12	Aiden Janes	Rochester Adams	107.0
99	12	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	107.7
100	12	Andrew Foshag	Monroe	109.0

With the monkey off his back, State 3200m in hand, plus a three race streak of sub-15’s, Seth Norder comes in as the favorite. He’s undefeated this year when facing D1 competition and letting it loose. Combine that with his ability to rise to the occasion (2nd here as a sophomore) and knowing what to anticipate up front, expect him to handle any challenge out there.

Beyond Seth, any number of kids could make a splash into second. Brendan Herger, exemplifying the patient Mustang tactics, will certainly be roaring down the stretch. Thomas Westphal isn’t afraid to stick his nose in any race. Vishvaa Ravishankar ripped a 15:11 at Jackson and has won tough races at OAA Red and Region 8. Seth Conner has answered the question of who’s the best junior. And Aiden Moore has been one of the better high-level, consistent athletes these past few weeks.