Blog

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#18 Buchanan
#27 Bridgman

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th-17^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	60	1.1	90	95+
2	Bridgman	81	2.0	10	95+
3	Union City	106	3.5		51
4	Schoolcraft	106	3.6		50
5	Kalamazoo Christian	128	5.0
6	Niles Brandywine	144	6.0
7	Watervliet	155	6.8
8	Lawton	192	8.2
9	Olivet	207	8.8
10	Hartford	269	10.1
11	Bangor	297	11.0
12	Constantine	343	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	1.6
2	12	Angel Miller	Parchment	3.6
3	9	Alli Gautsche	Union City	3.9
4	11	Emma Miller	Buchanan	5.9
5	11	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.6
6	12	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	6.9
7	12	Olivea Gessner	Olivet	7.4
8	11	Clara Fast	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	8.2
10	11	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	8.6
11	11	Skyler Fraley	Union City	10.3
12	10	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	12.3
13	11	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	12.3
14	11	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	15.7
15	11	Emily Howell	Bridgman	17.5
16	10	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	17.6
17	12	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	18.2
18	9	Hadley Camp	Lawton	19.0
19	10	Sydney Olson	Niles Brandywine	19.4
20	11	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	20.8
21	11	Alissa Skirka	Union City	21.7
22	12	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	23.4
23	11	Lucy Bray	Kalamazoo Christian	24.3
24	11	Marykate Thomas	Kalamazoo Christian	25.7
25	11	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	26.0
26	10	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	26.5
27	9	Brooke Schlutt	Buchanan	27.1
28	9	Anika Weurding	Lawton	27.2
29	11	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	28.0
30	11	Lillian Wolf	Hartford	29.8

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#17 Buchanan
#22 Olivet

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Top-15! With a bit weaker teams compared to individuals, expect the top spots in the region to be comprised of additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	66	1.0	95+	95+
2	Olivet	85	2.0		95+
3	Union City	124	3.2		81
4	Bridgman	145	4.2		18
5	Constantine	169	5.7
6	Bloomingdale	177	6.1
7	Schoolcraft	183	6.5
8	Kalamazoo Christian	198	7.5
9	Parchment	234	9.1
10	Coloma	256	10.4
11	Bangor	269	11.2
12	Watervliet	281	11.8
13	Hartford	297	12.4
14	Galesburg-Augusta	346	14.0
15	Lawton	410	15.0
16	Comstock	477	16.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Boden Genovese	Coloma	1.3
2	12	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.4
3	12	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	3.0
4	11	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	3.7
5	10	Ben Gautsche	Union City	4.9
6	11	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	7.0
7	12	Conner Fountain	Olivet	7.3
8	11	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	9.9
10	11	Robbie King	Constantine	11.2
11	12	Britain Philip	Buchanan	11.6
12	10	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	13.3
13	10	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	13.8
14	11	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	15.4
15	11	Elliot Cole	Parchment	16.0
16	11	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	17.2
17	11	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	18.1
18	12	Aiden Cripe	Coloma	19.8
19	11	Keagan Cole	Parchment	20.5
20	9	Cullen Decker	Union City	21.6
21	10	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	21.9
22	12	William Rodriquez	Bridgman	23.3
23	12	Daniel Dryer	Olivet	23.9
24	12	Brad Salmon	Bridgman	24.1
25	11	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	24.4
26	10	Evan Schaefer	Olivet	24.7
27	11	Cohen Burdick	Union City	28.7
28	9	Landen Gessner	Olivet	29.2
29	12	Jacob Williams	Kalamazoo Christian	30.6
30	11	Logan Patmalnieks	Constantine	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Otsego
#10 St. Joseph

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Around 19^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	61	2.0		95+
3	Stevensville Lakeshore	129	3.2		81
4	Sturgis	146	4.4		11
5	Plainwell	152	5.0		8
6	Three Rivers	164	6.1
7	Paw Paw	172	6.6
8	Niles	189	7.9
9	Vicksburg	207	8.9
10	Edwardsburg	258	10.0
11	Allegan	299	11.3
12	Berrien Springs	305	11.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	1.4
2	11	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	1.9
3	10	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.5
4	12	Logan Brazee	Otsego	3.7
5	12	Megan Germain	Otsego	5.1
6	10	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.7
8	11	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	8.8
9	11	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	8.9
10	11	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	10.7
11	10	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.2
12	9	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	12.7
13	12	Jennifer Hernandez-Medina	Three Rivers	13.0
14	10	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	13.7
15	12	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	14.2
16	11	Charlie Drew	Niles	16.6
17	10	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	18.2
18	9	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.6
19	12	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	20.5
20	10	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Emma Taggett	Plainwell	23.7
22	9	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	24.4
23	10	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	24.4
24	10	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	24.5
25	11	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.4
26	9	Lydia Johnson	St. Joseph	25.4
27	10	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	25.8
28	9	Sophia Lemieux	Paw Paw	26.0
29	12	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	26.3
30	9	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	28.6

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#9 Otsego
#16 Plainwell

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The battle for the third team is wide open, so fight for the top-15 and every spot after.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	49	1.1	87	95+
2	Plainwell	61	1.9	13	95+
3	Edwardsburg	136	3.5		64
4	Three Rivers	145	4.5		19
5	Paw Paw	153	4.9		12
6	St. Joseph	161	5.8		5
7	Vicksburg	168	6.4
8	Berrien Springs	212	8.5
9	Niles	217	8.6
10	Sturgis	255	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Krueger	Niles	2.2
2	12	Shay White	St. Joseph	3.1
3	11	Henry Cox	Plainwell	3.3
4	11	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	4.9
5	11	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	5.3
6	11	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	7.2
7	12	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	8.5
8	12	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	9.0
9	11	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	10.2
10	10	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	10.7
11	11	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	11.6
12	11	Logan VanHouten	Otsego	11.7
13	9	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	12.5
14	10	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	12.9
15	12	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	14.4
16	12	Liam Troutner	Plainwell	17.0
17	11	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	17.0
18	11	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	17.8
19	11	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	21.4
20	11	Nolan Park	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	21.9
22	10	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	22.3
23	12	Eddy Charron	Paw Paw	23.5
24	11	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	24.5
25	9	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	24.8
26	11	Jon Leith	Edwardsburg	27.9
27	9	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	28.3
28	10	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	28.6
29	9	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	29.3
30	12	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	31.3

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#5 Harbor Springs

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st or 22^nd place. Since Joburg and HS are so strong up front, these numbers get pushed back a tad.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	51	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	103	3.1		87
4	Gaylord St. Mary	113	3.9		12
5	East Jordan	127	5.2
6	Rogers City	138	5.8
7	Bellaire	160	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.1
2	11	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	2.7
3	12	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	4.0
4	9	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	4.1
5	10	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.4
6	12	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.7
7	9	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.8
8	11	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	6.8
9	9	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	9.0
10	9	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	11.6
11	9	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	13.9
12	10	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	14.0
13	9	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	14.3
14	11	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	14.7
15	12	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	15.7
16	9	Julia Clarke	Harbor Springs	17.0
17	11	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	17.2
18	12	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	18.1
19	9	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.7
20	12	Sydney Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	19.3
21	9	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	19.3
22	9	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	21.1
23	11	Grace Hayhurst	Harbor Springs	21.2
24	10	Bailey Thompson	Gaylord St. Mary	23.9
25	9	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	26.3
26	10	Taylor Hefele	Rogers City	26.9
27	12	Jessie Ross	Fairview	28.6
28	12	Alex Dawson	Bellaire	29.5
29	9	Madison Fiedorek	East Jordan	29.6
30	9	Maya Dodd	Gaylord St. Mary	29.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#9 Harbor Springs
#20 Petoskey St. Michael

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With the top-3 squads dominating the lower finishes, 21^st place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	58	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	78	3.0		95+
4	Lincoln-Alcona	119	4.7
5	East Jordan	128	5.1
6	Fairview	134	5.6
7	Ellsworth	149	7.0
8	Mackinaw City	159	7.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.7
2	12	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.2
3	11	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.5
4	10	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	3.9
5	10	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	5.3
6	12	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	7.7
7	10	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	8.5
8	10	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	9.0
9	11	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	10.5
10	12	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	11.6
11	11	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	12.1
12	12	Dusty Layman	Johannesburg-Lewiston	12.3
13	10	Cole Brege	Rogers City	15.1
14	12	Carter Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	15.8
15	8	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	16.3
16	10	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	16.4
17	10	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	17.2
18	10	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	19.9
19	11	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	20.0
20	11	Drake Fulton	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.6
21	12	Tyler DeYoung	Ellsworth	20.7
22	11	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	20.9
23	12	Patrick Puroll	Ellsworth	22.2
24	12	Isaac Black	East Jordan	24.4
25	10	Sean Bernard	Hale	24.6
26	10	Darren Boyat	Lincoln-Alcona	24.7
27	9	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	26.5
28	10	Braylon Currie	Mackinaw City	28.5
29	11	Logan McMullen	Indian River Inland Lakes	30.2
30	10	Paxton Downing	Hale	30.8

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Traverse City St. Francis
#5 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place. Should be pretty easy to spot the additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	29	1.0	95+	95+
2	Elk Rapids	46	2.0		95+
3	Clare	119	3.0		95+
4	Grayling	157	4.6
5	Charlevoix	162	4.9
6	Boyne City	172	5.8
7	Kalkaska	187	6.9
8	Farwell	200	7.8
9	Tawas	234	9.8
10	Mancelona	235	9.9
11	Standish-Sterling	238	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	3.1
3	9	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	3.6
4	11	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	9	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	5.1
6	11	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.2
7	12	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	6.7
8	10	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	7.2
9	11	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	10.0
10	10	Sarah Trojanowski	Traverse City St. Francis	12.1
11	12	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	12.9
12	12	Emily Anger	Mancelona	13.0
13	10	Delaney Little	Boyne City	13.6
14	12	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	13.8
15	12	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	14.0
16	12	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	16.5
17	12	Ella Peck	Elk Rapids	17.8
18	9	Nico Triebold	Grayling	18.1
19	10	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	18.3
20	9	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	19.0
21	10	Myah Little	Kalkaska	19.4
22	9	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	20.2
23	9	Lauren Leis	Clare	23.7
24	12	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	25.5
25	10	Joelle Swanson	Elk Rapids	25.8
26	10	Laura Spyker	Standish-Sterling	26.7
27	10	Cambrynne Giem	Boyne City	28.2
28	12	Jocelyn Millikin	Grayling	30.7
29	9	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	33.3
30	11	Adrianna Soria	Grayling	33.5

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Traverse City St. Francis
#10 Clare
#16 Charlevoix
#19 Kalkaska
#26 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The #GladPack should occupy many spots in the top-15, after that, individuals can be for the taking. 21^st-22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Clare	69	2.0		95+
3	Charlevoix	93	3.2		77
4	Kalkaska	102	3.8		23
5	Elk Rapids	121	5.0
6	Boyne City	200	6.6
7	Roscommon	206	6.9
8	Grayling	218	7.6
9	Mancelona	296	9.8
10	Standish-Sterling	296	10.0
11	Harrison	303	10.4
12	Tawas	328	11.8
13	Beaverton	358	13.0
14	Charlton Heston Academy	408	14.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brad White	Clare	1.9
2	11	Leo Swager	Traverse City St. Francis	2.2
3	12	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	3.8
4	11	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	12	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	6.4
6	9	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	7.3
7	12	Andrew Klaus	Clare	8.9
8	11	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	10.0
9	11	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	10.3
10	10	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	10.6
11	11	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	10.8
12	11	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	12.5
13	12	Drew Moore	Grayling	12.6
14	11	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	13.1
15	12	Nic Porter	Clare	13.4
16	12	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	17.0
17	9	Connor Schmidt	Clare	18.0
18	10	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	18.1
19	11	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	18.4
20	12	Camden Moore	Kalkaska	18.7
21	11	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	19.5
22	9	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	20.8
23	10	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	24.4
24	12	Christian Kerfoot	Elk Rapids	24.6
25	12	Jaymes Wildfong	Mancelona	25.2
26	9	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	26.2
27	10	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	27.9
28	9	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	28.6
29	11	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	29.5
30	12	Seth Brown	Elk Rapids	32.2

Apologies to the folks here, I was under the impression that ALL of the regions were moved to Saturday. Turns out, it’s just Region 30. So you only get one day of hoping to prove these right or wrong.

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

Clarkston Everest Collegiate is listed in here, but is actually in Region 33. When the regionals were first released, they were included here on the MHSAA site. For efficiency, I set everything up in the summer with divisions and regions, that way I don’t have another added task in season. It was pointed out to me this morning that they moved… I had no clue. Obviously the hosts and the teams know, but man, it’d be nice if communication was a bit better.

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#10 Breckenridge
#18 Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Breckenridge	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	78	2.0		95+
3	Beal City	105	3.4		61
4	Vestaburg	113	3.9		32
5	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	130	5.3		7
6	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	132	5.5
7	St. Charles	154	6.9
8	White Cloud	209	8.3
9	Fulton	214	8.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	1.9
2	10	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	2.3
3	9	Anna Sheppard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	2.8
4	9	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	4.3
5	12	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	4.7
6	11	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	6.2
7	9	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel	8.2
8	12	Andrea Feldpausch	White Cloud	9.4
9	11	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	9.6
10	11	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	11.0
11	11	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	11.8
12	12	Amelia Thompson	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	12.3
13	9	Da’sia Denwiddie	Breckenridge	13.1
14	11	Brianna Locke	Beal City	13.4
15	12	Tori Most	Breckenridge	16.5
16	9	Kaylie McCracken	Carson City-Crystal	17.4
17	10	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	17.6
18	9	Kaydense Ryan	Fulton	18.5
19	11	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	19.9
20	11	Lilly Leppert	Beal City	20.9
21	11	Areyel Weiss	Breckenridge	21.2
22	11	Jessica Penrod	Vestaburg	21.8
23	10	Laura Bigard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	23.1
24	9	Greta Schroeder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	23.4
25	12	Eve Herrgott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	25.6
26	12	Amelia Rivera	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	26.3
27	12	Mary Beth Hyatt	Carson City-Crystal	26.4
28	11	Alexis Graham	St. Charles	27.7
29	11	Maria Saad	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	29.7
30	10	Emma McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	31.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#12 White Cloud
#15 Breckenridge
#24 Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	White Cloud	52	1.3	71	95+
2	Breckenridge	55	1.7	29	95+
3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	71	3.0		95+
4	Carson City-Crystal	90	4.0
5	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	142	5.2
6	Saginaw Nouvel	149	5.8
7	Montabella	172	7.2
8	St. Charles	180	7.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	1.0
2	12	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	2.0
3	9	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	3.8
4	11	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	3.9
5	10	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	5.4
6	9	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	7.2
7	11	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	7.3
8	12	Carson Foondle	White Cloud	7.5
9	12	Carter Follett	Merrill	9.4
10	10	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	10.4
11	11	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	11.8
12	11	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	12.2
13	12	Jeffery Harden	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	14.0
14	12	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	15.2
15	9	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	15.7
16	9	Rush Marsden	Fulton	16.1
17	11	Logan Dudley	Coleman	18.0
18	9	Simeon Kober	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	18.1
19	9	Connor Sienkiewicz	Beal City	20.6
20	12	Keegan Shafer	Vestaburg	20.6
21	12	Cole Halfman	Carson City-Crystal	21.7
22	11	Avery Bowman	White Cloud	22.6
23	11	Sean O’Grady	Saginaw Nouvel	22.6
24	10	Jordan Weber	Beal City	22.6
25	11	Wyatt Karnes	White Cloud	23.4
26	12	David Ullmann	Breckenridge	26.6
27	11	Aimon Humm	Breckenridge	27.2
28	9	Angelo Hinson	White Cloud	28.9
29	10	Summer Yuan	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	30.7
30	10	Conner Fenton	Beal City	30.9

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 Hart
#12 Remus Chippewa Hills
#21 McBain
#26 Benzie Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place. Tons of quality individuals interspersed with these great teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Hart	53	1.0	95+	95+
2	Remus Chippewa Hills	65	2.0		95+
3	McBain	97	3.2		82
4	Benzie Central	117	4.2		12
5	Manistee	129	4.7		6
6	Reed City	181	6.9
7	Manton	192	7.5
8	Mason County Central	202	8.3
9	Lake City	207	8.3
10	Kingsley	219	9.2
11	Lakeview	272	11.0
12	Leroy Pine River	372	12.3
13	Hesperia	384	12.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.0
2	12	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	2.5
3	12	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	2.6
4	9	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	4.2
5	12	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	5.9
6	12	Avelina Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	6.1
7	10	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	7.5
8	11	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	8.1
9	11	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	8.4
10	9	Natalie Rosema	Hart	12.1
11	9	Betsy Gooden	Manton	12.8
12	10	Kerttu Juvonen	Remus Chippewa Hills	13.1
13	9	Kayden Hinton	McBain	13.1
14	9	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	13.4
15	11	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	16.4
16	11	Lauren Pretty	Hart	17.5
17	12	Haley Miller	McBain	18.3
18	11	Lilly Hopkins	Hart	20.3
19	11	Augusta Bowman	Remus Chippewa Hills	20.9
20	12	Reece Clark	Remus Chippewa Hills	22.9
21	10	Kenai Kokx	Hart	23.9
22	10	Georgia Haag	Manistee	25.4
23	11	Ava Iverson	Benzie Central	27.5
24	11	Clara Smoes	Reed City	27.6
25	11	Shauna McLean	McBain	27.8
26	11	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	28.2
27	9	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	28.6
28	9	Betsey Gooden	Manton	30.0
29	11	Harriet Kidder	Hart	30.1
30	11	Sayla Bender	Kingsley	31.2

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Reed City
#12 Hart
#27 Benzie Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The race for the third spot shall be a blast, with so many factors, get yourself in the top-15 and fight like hell if you’re not.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Reed City	42	1.3	70	95+
2	Hart	48	1.7	30	95+
3	Benzie Central	121	3.7		57
4	Leroy Pine River	131	4.5		27
5	Lake City	133	4.5		8
6	Manistee	143	5.3		8
7	Kingsley	203	7.1
8	Hesperia	220	8.4
9	Remus Chippewa Hills	229	9.0
10	Manton	235	9.5
11	Lakeview	288	11.0
12	Mason County Central	336	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Robert Jazwinski III	Hart	1.0
2	11	August Rohde	Reed City	2.4
3	12	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	2.9
4	12	Ryan Allen	Reed City	3.9
5	10	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	4.9
6	10	Jack Slotman	Hart	7.7
7	11	Max Stitt	Hart	8.8
8	12	Tyler Vanderzanden	Hart	10.3
9	10	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	10.6
10	12	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	11.7
11	12	Paxton Hall	Lake City	12.5
12	12	Isaac Clementshaw	Reed City	12.9
13	12	Branden Stock	Kingsley	16.9
14	10	Connor Helsel	Lake City	17.4
15	9	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	17.6
16	12	Lucan Louwsma	Benzie Central	18.1
17	12	Scott Slocum	Leroy Pine River	19.5
18	10	Paul Saladin	Reed City	19.9
19	12	Matthew Brownell	Remus Chippewa Hills	20.6
20	9	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	21.0
21	11	Christian Schramski	Manistee	21.9
22	11	Avery Guikema	Hart	23.2
23	11	Andrew Sherburn	Hesperia	24.3
24	11	Benjamin DeRidder	Benzie Central	24.6
25	9	Aiden Schaner	Hart	24.7
26	11	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	25.1
27	12	Luke Senters	Manistee	25.5
28	12	Gavin Kelso	Leroy Pine River	27.1
29	11	McKai Henry	Benzie Central	28.5
30	9	Aubin Allee	Leroy Pine River	29.0

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#12 Ludington
#20 Petoskey

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place, right on the number.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ludington	55	1.1	95+	95+
2	Petoskey	72	2.0	5	95+
3	Cadillac	104	3.0		95+
4	Gaylord	159	4.6
5	Sparta	159	4.6
6	Whitehall	196	6.8
7	Fremont	203	7.4
8	Gladwin	221	8.8
9	Cheboygan	222	8.7
10	Newaygo	230	9.4
11	Big Rapids	242	10.4
12	Howard City-Tri County	263	11.6
13	Muskegon Oakridge	302	13.0
14	Muskegon Orchard View	438	14.1
15	Ogemaw Heights	449	14.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.1
2	11	Summer Brower	Ludington	2.2
3	12	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	4.5
4	10	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.9
5	10	Linnea Paige	Fremont	5.3
6	9	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	6.8
7	12	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	7.8
8	11	Cami Kraai	Whitehall	7.9
9	10	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	8.4
10	9	Mia May	Sparta	9.2
11	12	Remington Arney	Newaygo	11.1
12	11	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	13.3
13	10	Christina Theis	Ludington	14.9
14	11	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	15.4
15	12	Merceydez Patton	Muskegon Oakridge	16.7
16	11	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	18.0
17	9	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	18.7
18	11	Autumn Brower	Ludington	19.0
19	12	Kennedi Wood	Sparta	19.1
20	11	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	20.5
21	12	Mackenzie Keillor	Ludington	20.9
22	12	Marisa Mazza	Cadillac	21.8
23	11	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	23.4
24	12	Raegan Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	25.8
25	9	Allison Brandt	Ludington	29.6
26	12	Natalie Schulz	Howard City-Tri County	29.6
27	11	Ella Spanding	Gaylord	30.5
28	12	Gwendalynn Rickard	Big Rapids	31.2
29	12	Hadley Hilt	Cadillac	31.2
30	9	Addie Main	Cadillac	33.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#10 Petoskey
#12 Gladwin
#14 Sparta
#18 Fremont

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Could vary greatly depending if the third team is Sparta, Fremont, or even Gladwin. 15^th will be safe, but keep fighting if you’re closer to 20, as I can see this going to 18.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Petoskey	63	1.1	89	95+
2	Gladwin	79	2.4	8	94
3	Sparta	84	2.8		85
4	Fremont	100	3.7		21
5	Big Rapids	140	5.6
6	Ludington	143	5.7
7	Cadillac	165	6.9
8	Whitehall	188	8.0
9	Howard City-Tri County	213	8.9
10	Muskegon Oakridge	303	10.0
11	Cheboygan	341	11.1
12	Ogemaw Heights	369	12.3
13	Gaylord	375	12.8
14	Newaygo	392	13.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Sean Pettis	Fremont	1.2
2	10	Owen Metzger	Sparta	3.2
3	12	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	3.3
4	12	Caleb Palmreuter	Gladwin	4.3
5	11	Seth Mead	Gladwin	5.2
6	12	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	6.2
7	11	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	7.7
8	12	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	7.7
9	11	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	7.8
10	11	Carter Sherman	Fremont	10.3
11	12	Tommy Farley	Petoskey	11.3
12	12	Jack Lindwall	Petoskey	13.3
13	11	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	13.8
14	11	Justin Bradford	Sparta	16.0
15	11	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	16.3
16	12	Brady Odenbach	Petoskey	17.6
17	10	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	19.5
18	12	Jose Flores	Ludington	20.6
19	12	Dylan Odenbach	Petoskey	21.1
20	10	Issac Romero	Fremont	21.4
21	11	Noah Lowman	Ludington	22.4
22	10	Daniel Eveland	Big Rapids	22.9
23	12	Gavin Rykse	Howard City-Tri County	23.5
24	10	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	23.7
25	12	Trey Keson	Ludington	27.0
26	12	John Whitman	Gladwin	27.4
27	11	Isaac Meyers	Sparta	27.5
28	11	Austin Dalman	Big Rapids	27.7
29	10	Alex Culver	Howard City-Tri County	29.0
30	11	Kyan Deam	Big Rapids	29.9